Aggregator

WW 0028 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S OAJ TO 25 NW EWN TO 40 ENE RWI TO 25 ENE RZZ TO 25 SE RIC TO 35 ENE RIC. ..BENTLEY..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-053-055-073-091-095-103-117-131-133- 137-139-143-147-177-187-052240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CURRITUCK DARE GATES HERTFORD HYDE JONES MARTIN NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT TYRRELL WASHINGTON VAC093-095-175-181-199-550-620-650-700-710-735-740-800-810-830- 052240- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ISLE OF WIGHT JAMES CITY SOUTHAMPTON SURRY YORK Read more

MD 0151 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN VIRGINIA...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0151 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Areas affected...Northeastern West Virginia...northern Virginia...western Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 051919Z - 052115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Damaging wind and hail threat may increase with thunderstorm development this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating along a secondary cold frontal boundary located across West Virginia into western Pennsylvania has allowed for convective development over the last 30-60 minutes. Temperatures have warmed into the 60s ahead of this boundary, yielding around 500 J/kg of SBCAPE to develop. Looking at the mid-levels, a 500 mb 90-100 kt jet continues to move northward across the area, supporting 0-6 km shear around 90-100 kts. CAM guidance suggests further development is possible along the boundary through the afternoon. Given strong shear profiles, some loosely organized cells may pose a risk for damaging wind and hail. Convective trends will be monitored over the next couple of hours for potential watch issuance. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE... LAT...LON 39938027 40838032 41578055 41928038 42037992 41967936 41587829 41187804 40667792 40227778 39567774 39047784 38577812 38147854 37937878 38127951 38578025 39368046 39938027 Read more

WW 0027 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 27 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE RIC TO 40 ENE RIC TO 35 NW SBY TO 20 NW DOV. ..THORNTON..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 27 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC039-045-047-052140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER VAC001-073-103-115-119-131-052140- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ACCOMACK GLOUCESTER LANCASTER MATHEWS MIDDLESEX NORTHAMPTON ANZ543-630-631-635-636-650-652-654-052140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH ISLAND Read more

MD 0152 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 28... FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0152 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Areas affected...eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia Concerning...Tornado Watch 28... Valid 051923Z - 052100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 28 continues. SUMMARY...A damaging wind and tornado threat will persist through the afternoon across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia. DISCUSSION...Low 60s dewpoints have now advected northward ahead of the line across eastern North Carolina to near the Virginia border. This has resulted in weak surface based instability ahead of the squall line. As a result, convection has intensified (evidenced by increasing lightning activity) along the line early this afternoon. Expect additional strengthening of this line as the downstream environment continues to destabilize. Expect widespread damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few embedded tornadoes through the afternoon and into the early evening. Some discrete convection tried to form across eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina where mid 60s dewpoints are present. However, in the uncapped environment, cell interactions quickly resulted in a messy mode which has now congealed into part of the greater squall line. Given this trend over the past hour, do not anticipate any pre-squall line supercells. However, given the strength of the shear, a few embedded supercells could be possible through the afternoon and evening, particularly across southern North Carolina where greater instability is present. ..Bentley/Mosier.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 33707864 34597869 36537774 37187723 37317648 37257612 36587581 35967561 35697542 35447544 35177551 35077587 34577643 34497662 34557691 34407734 34207761 33997784 33837791 33757821 33707864 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more