Aggregator

WW 28 TORNADO NC VA CW 051725Z - 060100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 28 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern North Carolina Southeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 800 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...A convective line continues to move eastward into more of central/eastern NC and southeast VA. Increasing low-level moisture coupled with strong vertical shear will support the potential for strong wind gusts and line-embedded tornadoes through the afternoon and into this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of Norfolk VA to 20 miles south southwest of New Bern NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 26...WW 27... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Mosier Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Mar 5 23:59:02 UTC 2025.

WW 0028 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE EWN TO 30 N ORF. ..SPC..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC053-055-095-139-177-052340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRITUCK DARE HYDE PASQUOTANK TYRRELL VAC710-810-052340- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE NORFOLK VIRGINIA BEACH AMZ131-135-150-152-154-156-230-231-ANZ632-633-634-656-658- 052340- Read more

WW 0028 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE EWN TO 30 N ORF. ..SPC..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC053-055-095-139-177-052340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRITUCK DARE HYDE PASQUOTANK TYRRELL VAC710-810-052340- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE NORFOLK VIRGINIA BEACH AMZ131-135-150-152-154-156-230-231-ANZ632-633-634-656-658- 052340- Read more

WW 28 TORNADO NC VA CW 051725Z - 060100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 28 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern North Carolina Southeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 800 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...A convective line continues to move eastward into more of central/eastern NC and southeast VA. Increasing low-level moisture coupled with strong vertical shear will support the potential for strong wind gusts and line-embedded tornadoes through the afternoon and into this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of Norfolk VA to 20 miles south southwest of New Bern NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 26...WW 27... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Mosier Read more

MD 0153 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 28... FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0153 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Areas affected...eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia Concerning...Tornado Watch 28... Valid 052130Z - 052300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 28 continues. SUMMARY...The damaging wind threat will continue through early evening. DISCUSSION...A squall line has started to lose its definition somewhat across eastern North Carolina as leading stratiform precipitation has started to stabilize an already weakly unstable boundary layer. While the line is not as intense as it was earlier this afternoon, a threat for damaging wind gusts remains possible to the Atlantic coast given the strength of the low-level wind field across the region (75 knots at 1km on MHX VWP). Several strong supercells with strong low-level circulation were observed from the KLTX WSR-88D off the North Carolina coast over the past 1 to 2 hours. However, as these storms approached the coast, they weakened, suggesting a more hostile low-level instability present across land areas. By 2330Z the threat will likely have ended across tornado watch 28 as the squall line should be in the western Atlantic by that time. ..Bentley.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX... LAT...LON 34477664 34497698 34587714 34747713 34937712 35907708 36607700 37287687 37377610 37177585 36607575 35807545 35557534 35267551 35167559 35027591 34697630 34477664 Read more

WW 0027 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 27 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW ORF TO 40 S NHK TO 30 NNW SBY. ..THORNTON..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 27 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC039-045-047-052240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER VAC001-073-115-131-052240- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ACCOMACK GLOUCESTER MATHEWS NORTHAMPTON ANZ543-630-631-636-650-652-654-052240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH ISLAND Read more

WW 0027 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 27 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW ORF TO 40 S NHK TO 30 NNW SBY. ..THORNTON..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 27 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC039-045-047-052240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER VAC001-073-115-131-052240- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ACCOMACK GLOUCESTER MATHEWS NORTHAMPTON ANZ543-630-631-636-650-652-654-052240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH ISLAND Read more

WW 0027 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 27 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW ORF TO 40 S NHK TO 30 NNW SBY. ..THORNTON..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 27 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC039-045-047-052240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER VAC001-073-115-131-052240- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ACCOMACK GLOUCESTER MATHEWS NORTHAMPTON ANZ543-630-631-636-650-652-654-052240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH ISLAND Read more

WW 0027 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 27 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW ORF TO 40 S NHK TO 30 NNW SBY. ..THORNTON..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 27 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC039-045-047-052240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER VAC001-073-115-131-052240- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ACCOMACK GLOUCESTER MATHEWS NORTHAMPTON ANZ543-630-631-636-650-652-654-052240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH ISLAND Read more

WW 27 SEVERE TSTM MD VA CW 051525Z - 052300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 27 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM EST Wed Mar 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Maryland Eastern/Southeastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1025 AM until 600 PM EST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A convective line is expected to continue eastward/northeastward into more of eastern/southeastern VA and southern MD over the next several hours. Strong wind fields across the region will support the potential for damaging gusts within this line. A low probability for a brief tornado or two also exists. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles west southwest of Richmond VA to 20 miles east of Patuxent River MD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 26... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Mosier Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A progressive and highly amplified flow regime will persist over the US through the extended forecast period. Several high-amplitude troughs are forecast to move over the southern Rockies/Plains fostering significant lee cyclogenesis. This will favor multiple periods of widespread dry/windy conditions over areas of receptive fuels. Fire-weather conditions are very likely over the next 7 days. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... The first of the significant upper troughs will move out of the Southwest and over the southern High Plains D2/Thursday through D4/Saturday. Strong mid-level flow will overspread a very dry air mass across parts of eastern NM and TX. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are likely each day with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%. Some modifications may be necessary in the coming days as fuels could be impacted by light precipitation. Additionally, model difference remain with regard to the areal extent and surface pattern of potentially critical conditions this weekend. Still, the combination of wind and RH, plus low fuel moisture remains largely receptive to fire-weather concerns. Through the end of the extended period, medium-range solutions suggest another strong trough impacting the Southwest and Southern High Plains after a period of shortwave ridging D5/Sunday and D6/Monday. Although there remain uncertainties regarding the depth and exact timing of this wave, confidence is high enough to conclude breezy and dry conditions will likely be present from southern NM, to West TX, and the TX Panhandle. Low Critical probabilities have been included to account for this persistent pattern. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A progressive and highly amplified flow regime will persist over the US through the extended forecast period. Several high-amplitude troughs are forecast to move over the southern Rockies/Plains fostering significant lee cyclogenesis. This will favor multiple periods of widespread dry/windy conditions over areas of receptive fuels. Fire-weather conditions are very likely over the next 7 days. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... The first of the significant upper troughs will move out of the Southwest and over the southern High Plains D2/Thursday through D4/Saturday. Strong mid-level flow will overspread a very dry air mass across parts of eastern NM and TX. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are likely each day with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%. Some modifications may be necessary in the coming days as fuels could be impacted by light precipitation. Additionally, model difference remain with regard to the areal extent and surface pattern of potentially critical conditions this weekend. Still, the combination of wind and RH, plus low fuel moisture remains largely receptive to fire-weather concerns. Through the end of the extended period, medium-range solutions suggest another strong trough impacting the Southwest and Southern High Plains after a period of shortwave ridging D5/Sunday and D6/Monday. Although there remain uncertainties regarding the depth and exact timing of this wave, confidence is high enough to conclude breezy and dry conditions will likely be present from southern NM, to West TX, and the TX Panhandle. Low Critical probabilities have been included to account for this persistent pattern. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A progressive and highly amplified flow regime will persist over the US through the extended forecast period. Several high-amplitude troughs are forecast to move over the southern Rockies/Plains fostering significant lee cyclogenesis. This will favor multiple periods of widespread dry/windy conditions over areas of receptive fuels. Fire-weather conditions are very likely over the next 7 days. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... The first of the significant upper troughs will move out of the Southwest and over the southern High Plains D2/Thursday through D4/Saturday. Strong mid-level flow will overspread a very dry air mass across parts of eastern NM and TX. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are likely each day with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%. Some modifications may be necessary in the coming days as fuels could be impacted by light precipitation. Additionally, model difference remain with regard to the areal extent and surface pattern of potentially critical conditions this weekend. Still, the combination of wind and RH, plus low fuel moisture remains largely receptive to fire-weather concerns. Through the end of the extended period, medium-range solutions suggest another strong trough impacting the Southwest and Southern High Plains after a period of shortwave ridging D5/Sunday and D6/Monday. Although there remain uncertainties regarding the depth and exact timing of this wave, confidence is high enough to conclude breezy and dry conditions will likely be present from southern NM, to West TX, and the TX Panhandle. Low Critical probabilities have been included to account for this persistent pattern. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A progressive and highly amplified flow regime will persist over the US through the extended forecast period. Several high-amplitude troughs are forecast to move over the southern Rockies/Plains fostering significant lee cyclogenesis. This will favor multiple periods of widespread dry/windy conditions over areas of receptive fuels. Fire-weather conditions are very likely over the next 7 days. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... The first of the significant upper troughs will move out of the Southwest and over the southern High Plains D2/Thursday through D4/Saturday. Strong mid-level flow will overspread a very dry air mass across parts of eastern NM and TX. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are likely each day with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%. Some modifications may be necessary in the coming days as fuels could be impacted by light precipitation. Additionally, model difference remain with regard to the areal extent and surface pattern of potentially critical conditions this weekend. Still, the combination of wind and RH, plus low fuel moisture remains largely receptive to fire-weather concerns. Through the end of the extended period, medium-range solutions suggest another strong trough impacting the Southwest and Southern High Plains after a period of shortwave ridging D5/Sunday and D6/Monday. Although there remain uncertainties regarding the depth and exact timing of this wave, confidence is high enough to conclude breezy and dry conditions will likely be present from southern NM, to West TX, and the TX Panhandle. Low Critical probabilities have been included to account for this persistent pattern. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A progressive and highly amplified flow regime will persist over the US through the extended forecast period. Several high-amplitude troughs are forecast to move over the southern Rockies/Plains fostering significant lee cyclogenesis. This will favor multiple periods of widespread dry/windy conditions over areas of receptive fuels. Fire-weather conditions are very likely over the next 7 days. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... The first of the significant upper troughs will move out of the Southwest and over the southern High Plains D2/Thursday through D4/Saturday. Strong mid-level flow will overspread a very dry air mass across parts of eastern NM and TX. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are likely each day with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%. Some modifications may be necessary in the coming days as fuels could be impacted by light precipitation. Additionally, model difference remain with regard to the areal extent and surface pattern of potentially critical conditions this weekend. Still, the combination of wind and RH, plus low fuel moisture remains largely receptive to fire-weather concerns. Through the end of the extended period, medium-range solutions suggest another strong trough impacting the Southwest and Southern High Plains after a period of shortwave ridging D5/Sunday and D6/Monday. Although there remain uncertainties regarding the depth and exact timing of this wave, confidence is high enough to conclude breezy and dry conditions will likely be present from southern NM, to West TX, and the TX Panhandle. Low Critical probabilities have been included to account for this persistent pattern. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A progressive and highly amplified flow regime will persist over the US through the extended forecast period. Several high-amplitude troughs are forecast to move over the southern Rockies/Plains fostering significant lee cyclogenesis. This will favor multiple periods of widespread dry/windy conditions over areas of receptive fuels. Fire-weather conditions are very likely over the next 7 days. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... The first of the significant upper troughs will move out of the Southwest and over the southern High Plains D2/Thursday through D4/Saturday. Strong mid-level flow will overspread a very dry air mass across parts of eastern NM and TX. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are likely each day with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%. Some modifications may be necessary in the coming days as fuels could be impacted by light precipitation. Additionally, model difference remain with regard to the areal extent and surface pattern of potentially critical conditions this weekend. Still, the combination of wind and RH, plus low fuel moisture remains largely receptive to fire-weather concerns. Through the end of the extended period, medium-range solutions suggest another strong trough impacting the Southwest and Southern High Plains after a period of shortwave ridging D5/Sunday and D6/Monday. Although there remain uncertainties regarding the depth and exact timing of this wave, confidence is high enough to conclude breezy and dry conditions will likely be present from southern NM, to West TX, and the TX Panhandle. Low Critical probabilities have been included to account for this persistent pattern. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A progressive and highly amplified flow regime will persist over the US through the extended forecast period. Several high-amplitude troughs are forecast to move over the southern Rockies/Plains fostering significant lee cyclogenesis. This will favor multiple periods of widespread dry/windy conditions over areas of receptive fuels. Fire-weather conditions are very likely over the next 7 days. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... The first of the significant upper troughs will move out of the Southwest and over the southern High Plains D2/Thursday through D4/Saturday. Strong mid-level flow will overspread a very dry air mass across parts of eastern NM and TX. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are likely each day with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%. Some modifications may be necessary in the coming days as fuels could be impacted by light precipitation. Additionally, model difference remain with regard to the areal extent and surface pattern of potentially critical conditions this weekend. Still, the combination of wind and RH, plus low fuel moisture remains largely receptive to fire-weather concerns. Through the end of the extended period, medium-range solutions suggest another strong trough impacting the Southwest and Southern High Plains after a period of shortwave ridging D5/Sunday and D6/Monday. Although there remain uncertainties regarding the depth and exact timing of this wave, confidence is high enough to conclude breezy and dry conditions will likely be present from southern NM, to West TX, and the TX Panhandle. Low Critical probabilities have been included to account for this persistent pattern. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A progressive and highly amplified flow regime will persist over the US through the extended forecast period. Several high-amplitude troughs are forecast to move over the southern Rockies/Plains fostering significant lee cyclogenesis. This will favor multiple periods of widespread dry/windy conditions over areas of receptive fuels. Fire-weather conditions are very likely over the next 7 days. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... The first of the significant upper troughs will move out of the Southwest and over the southern High Plains D2/Thursday through D4/Saturday. Strong mid-level flow will overspread a very dry air mass across parts of eastern NM and TX. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are likely each day with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%. Some modifications may be necessary in the coming days as fuels could be impacted by light precipitation. Additionally, model difference remain with regard to the areal extent and surface pattern of potentially critical conditions this weekend. Still, the combination of wind and RH, plus low fuel moisture remains largely receptive to fire-weather concerns. Through the end of the extended period, medium-range solutions suggest another strong trough impacting the Southwest and Southern High Plains after a period of shortwave ridging D5/Sunday and D6/Monday. Although there remain uncertainties regarding the depth and exact timing of this wave, confidence is high enough to conclude breezy and dry conditions will likely be present from southern NM, to West TX, and the TX Panhandle. Low Critical probabilities have been included to account for this persistent pattern. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A progressive and highly amplified flow regime will persist over the US through the extended forecast period. Several high-amplitude troughs are forecast to move over the southern Rockies/Plains fostering significant lee cyclogenesis. This will favor multiple periods of widespread dry/windy conditions over areas of receptive fuels. Fire-weather conditions are very likely over the next 7 days. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... The first of the significant upper troughs will move out of the Southwest and over the southern High Plains D2/Thursday through D4/Saturday. Strong mid-level flow will overspread a very dry air mass across parts of eastern NM and TX. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are likely each day with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%. Some modifications may be necessary in the coming days as fuels could be impacted by light precipitation. Additionally, model difference remain with regard to the areal extent and surface pattern of potentially critical conditions this weekend. Still, the combination of wind and RH, plus low fuel moisture remains largely receptive to fire-weather concerns. Through the end of the extended period, medium-range solutions suggest another strong trough impacting the Southwest and Southern High Plains after a period of shortwave ridging D5/Sunday and D6/Monday. Although there remain uncertainties regarding the depth and exact timing of this wave, confidence is high enough to conclude breezy and dry conditions will likely be present from southern NM, to West TX, and the TX Panhandle. Low Critical probabilities have been included to account for this persistent pattern. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more