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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms appear possible across parts of east central Arizona into adjacent portions of western New Mexico on Friday, and across parts of central Texas late Friday night, but the risk for severe weather appears negligible. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the center of a broad and deep, occluded cyclone will be in the process of weakening across central Quebec, with secondary surface cyclogenesis underway near the Canadian Maritimes by early Friday. The new cyclone center is then generally forecast to migrate northward toward Newfoundland and Labrador through 12Z Saturday. In its wake, it appears that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. Upstream, as a significant short wave trough and embedded mid-level low turn eastward toward the southern Rockies, within an amplified belt of westerlies emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific, broad downstream ridging is forecast to be maintained across the subtropical into southern mid-latitudes, with mid-level flow becoming increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains. A lead short wave perturbation emerging from the Intermountain West is likely to become increasingly sheared as it accelerates into and through the confluent regime, accompanied by a weakening surface low transitioning to a frontal wave across the central Great Plains through middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Models indicate that the trailing cold front may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night, with a new wave possibly developing along it across parts of central Texas toward the end of the period. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward adjacent coastal areas. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Arizona into New Mexico... A generally cold boundary layer with limited moisture still seems likely to minimize the potential for thunderstorm development beneath the mid-level cold pool overspreading the Great Basin into Four Corners states Friday through Friday night. However, the latest RAP Refresh and High Resolution Ensemble output suggests that thermodynamic profiles might become marginally conducive to convection capable of producing lightning by late Friday night, near/north of the east central Arizona Mogollon Rim vicinity into parts of the Colorado Plateau. ...Central into northeast Texas... Low-level moistening and forcing for ascent along the frontal zone downstream of the developing wave will contribute to weak elevated destabilization by late Friday night. Erosion of mid-level inhibition may become sufficient to support the initiation of scattered thunderstorms, either shortly before or not long after 12Z Saturday. ..Kerr.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms appear possible across parts of east central Arizona into adjacent portions of western New Mexico on Friday, and across parts of central Texas late Friday night, but the risk for severe weather appears negligible. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the center of a broad and deep, occluded cyclone will be in the process of weakening across central Quebec, with secondary surface cyclogenesis underway near the Canadian Maritimes by early Friday. The new cyclone center is then generally forecast to migrate northward toward Newfoundland and Labrador through 12Z Saturday. In its wake, it appears that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. Upstream, as a significant short wave trough and embedded mid-level low turn eastward toward the southern Rockies, within an amplified belt of westerlies emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific, broad downstream ridging is forecast to be maintained across the subtropical into southern mid-latitudes, with mid-level flow becoming increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains. A lead short wave perturbation emerging from the Intermountain West is likely to become increasingly sheared as it accelerates into and through the confluent regime, accompanied by a weakening surface low transitioning to a frontal wave across the central Great Plains through middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Models indicate that the trailing cold front may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night, with a new wave possibly developing along it across parts of central Texas toward the end of the period. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward adjacent coastal areas. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Arizona into New Mexico... A generally cold boundary layer with limited moisture still seems likely to minimize the potential for thunderstorm development beneath the mid-level cold pool overspreading the Great Basin into Four Corners states Friday through Friday night. However, the latest RAP Refresh and High Resolution Ensemble output suggests that thermodynamic profiles might become marginally conducive to convection capable of producing lightning by late Friday night, near/north of the east central Arizona Mogollon Rim vicinity into parts of the Colorado Plateau. ...Central into northeast Texas... Low-level moistening and forcing for ascent along the frontal zone downstream of the developing wave will contribute to weak elevated destabilization by late Friday night. Erosion of mid-level inhibition may become sufficient to support the initiation of scattered thunderstorms, either shortly before or not long after 12Z Saturday. ..Kerr.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms appear possible across parts of east central Arizona into adjacent portions of western New Mexico on Friday, and across parts of central Texas late Friday night, but the risk for severe weather appears negligible. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the center of a broad and deep, occluded cyclone will be in the process of weakening across central Quebec, with secondary surface cyclogenesis underway near the Canadian Maritimes by early Friday. The new cyclone center is then generally forecast to migrate northward toward Newfoundland and Labrador through 12Z Saturday. In its wake, it appears that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. Upstream, as a significant short wave trough and embedded mid-level low turn eastward toward the southern Rockies, within an amplified belt of westerlies emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific, broad downstream ridging is forecast to be maintained across the subtropical into southern mid-latitudes, with mid-level flow becoming increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains. A lead short wave perturbation emerging from the Intermountain West is likely to become increasingly sheared as it accelerates into and through the confluent regime, accompanied by a weakening surface low transitioning to a frontal wave across the central Great Plains through middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Models indicate that the trailing cold front may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night, with a new wave possibly developing along it across parts of central Texas toward the end of the period. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward adjacent coastal areas. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Arizona into New Mexico... A generally cold boundary layer with limited moisture still seems likely to minimize the potential for thunderstorm development beneath the mid-level cold pool overspreading the Great Basin into Four Corners states Friday through Friday night. However, the latest RAP Refresh and High Resolution Ensemble output suggests that thermodynamic profiles might become marginally conducive to convection capable of producing lightning by late Friday night, near/north of the east central Arizona Mogollon Rim vicinity into parts of the Colorado Plateau. ...Central into northeast Texas... Low-level moistening and forcing for ascent along the frontal zone downstream of the developing wave will contribute to weak elevated destabilization by late Friday night. Erosion of mid-level inhibition may become sufficient to support the initiation of scattered thunderstorms, either shortly before or not long after 12Z Saturday. ..Kerr.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible today from parts of southern and central California into the Intermountain West and central Rockies. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move into the Northeast today, as a ridge moves through the Great Plains. Out west, a low will move across the Intermountain West. Mid-level moisture and large-scale ascent associated with the western U.S. system will make conditions favorable for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. However, instability will remain very weak across the western U.S. and no severe threat is expected to develop today. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible today from parts of southern and central California into the Intermountain West and central Rockies. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move into the Northeast today, as a ridge moves through the Great Plains. Out west, a low will move across the Intermountain West. Mid-level moisture and large-scale ascent associated with the western U.S. system will make conditions favorable for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. However, instability will remain very weak across the western U.S. and no severe threat is expected to develop today. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible today from parts of southern and central California into the Intermountain West and central Rockies. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move into the Northeast today, as a ridge moves through the Great Plains. Out west, a low will move across the Intermountain West. Mid-level moisture and large-scale ascent associated with the western U.S. system will make conditions favorable for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. However, instability will remain very weak across the western U.S. and no severe threat is expected to develop today. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible today from parts of southern and central California into the Intermountain West and central Rockies. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move into the Northeast today, as a ridge moves through the Great Plains. Out west, a low will move across the Intermountain West. Mid-level moisture and large-scale ascent associated with the western U.S. system will make conditions favorable for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. However, instability will remain very weak across the western U.S. and no severe threat is expected to develop today. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible today from parts of southern and central California into the Intermountain West and central Rockies. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move into the Northeast today, as a ridge moves through the Great Plains. Out west, a low will move across the Intermountain West. Mid-level moisture and large-scale ascent associated with the western U.S. system will make conditions favorable for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. However, instability will remain very weak across the western U.S. and no severe threat is expected to develop today. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible today from parts of southern and central California into the Intermountain West and central Rockies. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move into the Northeast today, as a ridge moves through the Great Plains. Out west, a low will move across the Intermountain West. Mid-level moisture and large-scale ascent associated with the western U.S. system will make conditions favorable for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. However, instability will remain very weak across the western U.S. and no severe threat is expected to develop today. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible today from parts of southern and central California into the Intermountain West and central Rockies. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move into the Northeast today, as a ridge moves through the Great Plains. Out west, a low will move across the Intermountain West. Mid-level moisture and large-scale ascent associated with the western U.S. system will make conditions favorable for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. However, instability will remain very weak across the western U.S. and no severe threat is expected to develop today. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this evening. At the surface, a cold front is located in the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, an axis of low-level moisture is analyzed from far eastern North Carolina northward into eastern Virginia, where surface dewpoints are generally in the 50s F. Thunderstorms are ongoing along the western edge of this moist corridor ahead of the front near a surface trough. This area is also close to a mid-level jet with wind speeds around 100 knots. Near this jet streak, deep-layer shear is strong and large-scale ascent is focused. This environment along with some instability will be sufficient for a marginal severe threat for a few more hours this evening. Isolated severe wind gusts will be the primary threat. ..Broyles.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this evening. At the surface, a cold front is located in the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, an axis of low-level moisture is analyzed from far eastern North Carolina northward into eastern Virginia, where surface dewpoints are generally in the 50s F. Thunderstorms are ongoing along the western edge of this moist corridor ahead of the front near a surface trough. This area is also close to a mid-level jet with wind speeds around 100 knots. Near this jet streak, deep-layer shear is strong and large-scale ascent is focused. This environment along with some instability will be sufficient for a marginal severe threat for a few more hours this evening. Isolated severe wind gusts will be the primary threat. ..Broyles.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this evening. At the surface, a cold front is located in the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, an axis of low-level moisture is analyzed from far eastern North Carolina northward into eastern Virginia, where surface dewpoints are generally in the 50s F. Thunderstorms are ongoing along the western edge of this moist corridor ahead of the front near a surface trough. This area is also close to a mid-level jet with wind speeds around 100 knots. Near this jet streak, deep-layer shear is strong and large-scale ascent is focused. This environment along with some instability will be sufficient for a marginal severe threat for a few more hours this evening. Isolated severe wind gusts will be the primary threat. ..Broyles.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this evening. At the surface, a cold front is located in the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, an axis of low-level moisture is analyzed from far eastern North Carolina northward into eastern Virginia, where surface dewpoints are generally in the 50s F. Thunderstorms are ongoing along the western edge of this moist corridor ahead of the front near a surface trough. This area is also close to a mid-level jet with wind speeds around 100 knots. Near this jet streak, deep-layer shear is strong and large-scale ascent is focused. This environment along with some instability will be sufficient for a marginal severe threat for a few more hours this evening. Isolated severe wind gusts will be the primary threat. ..Broyles.. 03/06/2025 Read more

WW 0028 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE EWN TO 30 N ORF. ..SPC..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC053-055-095-139-177-052340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRITUCK DARE HYDE PASQUOTANK TYRRELL VAC710-810-052340- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE NORFOLK VIRGINIA BEACH AMZ131-135-150-152-154-156-230-231-ANZ632-633-634-656-658- 052340- Read more

WW 28 TORNADO NC VA CW 051725Z - 060100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 28 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern North Carolina Southeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 800 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...A convective line continues to move eastward into more of central/eastern NC and southeast VA. Increasing low-level moisture coupled with strong vertical shear will support the potential for strong wind gusts and line-embedded tornadoes through the afternoon and into this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of Norfolk VA to 20 miles south southwest of New Bern NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 26...WW 27... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Mosier Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Mar 5 23:59:02 UTC 2025.

WW 0028 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE EWN TO 30 N ORF. ..SPC..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC053-055-095-139-177-052340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRITUCK DARE HYDE PASQUOTANK TYRRELL VAC710-810-052340- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE NORFOLK VIRGINIA BEACH AMZ131-135-150-152-154-156-230-231-ANZ632-633-634-656-658- 052340- Read more

WW 0028 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE EWN TO 30 N ORF. ..SPC..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC053-055-095-139-177-052340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRITUCK DARE HYDE PASQUOTANK TYRRELL VAC710-810-052340- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE NORFOLK VIRGINIA BEACH AMZ131-135-150-152-154-156-230-231-ANZ632-633-634-656-658- 052340- Read more