Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Monday... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over the northern Plains and upper Midwest is forecast to move into Ontario on Monday, along the northern periphery of an amplified upper ridge over the eastern CONUS. A cold front will move through parts of the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest and central Plains. The strongest deep-layer flow may tend to lag behind the front, but moderate to strong instability could support strong to potentially severe storms along the front during the afternoon and evening. Farther east, strong instability is generally forecast to develop across parts of the Mid Atlantic into New England. However, due to the influence of the upper ridge, there is currently little signal for diurnal storm development across this region on Monday. ...D5/Tuesday... Extended-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that a cold front will move southward across the lower Great Lakes into New England on Tuesday. Favorable low-level moisture and strong instability could support severe-storm potential along the front during the afternoon and evening. However, coverage of storms is currently uncertain, due to the lingering influence of the upper ridge, and a tendency for stronger large-scale ascent to be displaced well north of the front. The western upper trough is forecast to deamplify on Tuesday, with most guidance suggesting that mid/upper-level flow will tend to weaken downstream across the Great Plains and upper Midwest. However, strong to locally severe storms could again be possible near the front, which may begin to move northward across the central Plains as a warm front through the day. ...D6/Wednesday - D8/Friday... Predictability begins to wane by the middle of next week regarding the evolution of synoptic features across the CONUS, though the same general pattern of a weak upper trough in the West and an upper ridge over the East may continue through at least Wednesday. In the absence of any apparent strong forcing mechanisms, organized severe potential (if any) may tend be focused near a convectively influenced front across parts of the Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Monday... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over the northern Plains and upper Midwest is forecast to move into Ontario on Monday, along the northern periphery of an amplified upper ridge over the eastern CONUS. A cold front will move through parts of the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest and central Plains. The strongest deep-layer flow may tend to lag behind the front, but moderate to strong instability could support strong to potentially severe storms along the front during the afternoon and evening. Farther east, strong instability is generally forecast to develop across parts of the Mid Atlantic into New England. However, due to the influence of the upper ridge, there is currently little signal for diurnal storm development across this region on Monday. ...D5/Tuesday... Extended-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that a cold front will move southward across the lower Great Lakes into New England on Tuesday. Favorable low-level moisture and strong instability could support severe-storm potential along the front during the afternoon and evening. However, coverage of storms is currently uncertain, due to the lingering influence of the upper ridge, and a tendency for stronger large-scale ascent to be displaced well north of the front. The western upper trough is forecast to deamplify on Tuesday, with most guidance suggesting that mid/upper-level flow will tend to weaken downstream across the Great Plains and upper Midwest. However, strong to locally severe storms could again be possible near the front, which may begin to move northward across the central Plains as a warm front through the day. ...D6/Wednesday - D8/Friday... Predictability begins to wane by the middle of next week regarding the evolution of synoptic features across the CONUS, though the same general pattern of a weak upper trough in the West and an upper ridge over the East may continue through at least Wednesday. In the absence of any apparent strong forcing mechanisms, organized severe potential (if any) may tend be focused near a convectively influenced front across parts of the Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Monday... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over the northern Plains and upper Midwest is forecast to move into Ontario on Monday, along the northern periphery of an amplified upper ridge over the eastern CONUS. A cold front will move through parts of the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest and central Plains. The strongest deep-layer flow may tend to lag behind the front, but moderate to strong instability could support strong to potentially severe storms along the front during the afternoon and evening. Farther east, strong instability is generally forecast to develop across parts of the Mid Atlantic into New England. However, due to the influence of the upper ridge, there is currently little signal for diurnal storm development across this region on Monday. ...D5/Tuesday... Extended-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that a cold front will move southward across the lower Great Lakes into New England on Tuesday. Favorable low-level moisture and strong instability could support severe-storm potential along the front during the afternoon and evening. However, coverage of storms is currently uncertain, due to the lingering influence of the upper ridge, and a tendency for stronger large-scale ascent to be displaced well north of the front. The western upper trough is forecast to deamplify on Tuesday, with most guidance suggesting that mid/upper-level flow will tend to weaken downstream across the Great Plains and upper Midwest. However, strong to locally severe storms could again be possible near the front, which may begin to move northward across the central Plains as a warm front through the day. ...D6/Wednesday - D8/Friday... Predictability begins to wane by the middle of next week regarding the evolution of synoptic features across the CONUS, though the same general pattern of a weak upper trough in the West and an upper ridge over the East may continue through at least Wednesday. In the absence of any apparent strong forcing mechanisms, organized severe potential (if any) may tend be focused near a convectively influenced front across parts of the Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE INTO NORTHWEST IA...THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop on Sunday from parts of the central and northern Plains into the upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum are forecast to move from the central Rockies towards the northern Great Plains on Sunday. A surface low will move from NE/SD northeast toward Lake Superior, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the northern/central Plains. Downstream, an upper ridge will amplify further across the eastern CONUS through the day, as a shortwave trough initially over New England moves offshore. ...Great Plains into the Upper Midwest... Strong to extreme instability is again forecast to develop along/ahead of the cold front across parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Guidance generally suggests that stronger ascent and deep-layer flow associated with the ejecting mid/upper-level shortwave trough may lag behind the front, resulting in some uncertainty regarding the magnitude and coverage of the severe threat. However, strong diurnal heating will support potential for storm development in the vicinity of the front, and also southward along a surface trough into the central and perhaps southern High Plains. Given the magnitude of instability, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, with a few strong cells or clusters possible. A Slight Risk has been added from central NE into MN, where confidence is currently greatest in development of widely scattered strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening. Convection may persist into late Sunday night, with an isolated severe threat spreading gradually eastward. Isolated severe storms will also be possible within the post-frontal regime across the central/northern High Plains, though guidance varies regarding the magnitude of MUCAPE in this region. High-based storms may develop into parts of the southern High Plains, with a threat of isolated strong to severe gusts. ...Parts of the Northeast/New England... Guidance varies substantially regarding the strength/timing of the shortwave trough and related flow fields that will move across New England Sunday morning. Depending on the strength of the system and the evolution of convection on D2/Saturday, there is some potential for isolated strong to severe storms Sunday across the region, given the presence of increasing buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear. A slower system could result in a more robust diurnal threat, while a faster system may confine the primary threat to the morning. ..Dean.. 06/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE INTO NORTHWEST IA...THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop on Sunday from parts of the central and northern Plains into the upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum are forecast to move from the central Rockies towards the northern Great Plains on Sunday. A surface low will move from NE/SD northeast toward Lake Superior, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the northern/central Plains. Downstream, an upper ridge will amplify further across the eastern CONUS through the day, as a shortwave trough initially over New England moves offshore. ...Great Plains into the Upper Midwest... Strong to extreme instability is again forecast to develop along/ahead of the cold front across parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Guidance generally suggests that stronger ascent and deep-layer flow associated with the ejecting mid/upper-level shortwave trough may lag behind the front, resulting in some uncertainty regarding the magnitude and coverage of the severe threat. However, strong diurnal heating will support potential for storm development in the vicinity of the front, and also southward along a surface trough into the central and perhaps southern High Plains. Given the magnitude of instability, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, with a few strong cells or clusters possible. A Slight Risk has been added from central NE into MN, where confidence is currently greatest in development of widely scattered strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening. Convection may persist into late Sunday night, with an isolated severe threat spreading gradually eastward. Isolated severe storms will also be possible within the post-frontal regime across the central/northern High Plains, though guidance varies regarding the magnitude of MUCAPE in this region. High-based storms may develop into parts of the southern High Plains, with a threat of isolated strong to severe gusts. ...Parts of the Northeast/New England... Guidance varies substantially regarding the strength/timing of the shortwave trough and related flow fields that will move across New England Sunday morning. Depending on the strength of the system and the evolution of convection on D2/Saturday, there is some potential for isolated strong to severe storms Sunday across the region, given the presence of increasing buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear. A slower system could result in a more robust diurnal threat, while a faster system may confine the primary threat to the morning. ..Dean.. 06/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE INTO NORTHWEST IA...THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop on Sunday from parts of the central and northern Plains into the upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum are forecast to move from the central Rockies towards the northern Great Plains on Sunday. A surface low will move from NE/SD northeast toward Lake Superior, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the northern/central Plains. Downstream, an upper ridge will amplify further across the eastern CONUS through the day, as a shortwave trough initially over New England moves offshore. ...Great Plains into the Upper Midwest... Strong to extreme instability is again forecast to develop along/ahead of the cold front across parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Guidance generally suggests that stronger ascent and deep-layer flow associated with the ejecting mid/upper-level shortwave trough may lag behind the front, resulting in some uncertainty regarding the magnitude and coverage of the severe threat. However, strong diurnal heating will support potential for storm development in the vicinity of the front, and also southward along a surface trough into the central and perhaps southern High Plains. Given the magnitude of instability, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, with a few strong cells or clusters possible. A Slight Risk has been added from central NE into MN, where confidence is currently greatest in development of widely scattered strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening. Convection may persist into late Sunday night, with an isolated severe threat spreading gradually eastward. Isolated severe storms will also be possible within the post-frontal regime across the central/northern High Plains, though guidance varies regarding the magnitude of MUCAPE in this region. High-based storms may develop into parts of the southern High Plains, with a threat of isolated strong to severe gusts. ...Parts of the Northeast/New England... Guidance varies substantially regarding the strength/timing of the shortwave trough and related flow fields that will move across New England Sunday morning. Depending on the strength of the system and the evolution of convection on D2/Saturday, there is some potential for isolated strong to severe storms Sunday across the region, given the presence of increasing buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear. A slower system could result in a more robust diurnal threat, while a faster system may confine the primary threat to the morning. ..Dean.. 06/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE INTO NORTHWEST IA...THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop on Sunday from parts of the central and northern Plains into the upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum are forecast to move from the central Rockies towards the northern Great Plains on Sunday. A surface low will move from NE/SD northeast toward Lake Superior, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the northern/central Plains. Downstream, an upper ridge will amplify further across the eastern CONUS through the day, as a shortwave trough initially over New England moves offshore. ...Great Plains into the Upper Midwest... Strong to extreme instability is again forecast to develop along/ahead of the cold front across parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Guidance generally suggests that stronger ascent and deep-layer flow associated with the ejecting mid/upper-level shortwave trough may lag behind the front, resulting in some uncertainty regarding the magnitude and coverage of the severe threat. However, strong diurnal heating will support potential for storm development in the vicinity of the front, and also southward along a surface trough into the central and perhaps southern High Plains. Given the magnitude of instability, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, with a few strong cells or clusters possible. A Slight Risk has been added from central NE into MN, where confidence is currently greatest in development of widely scattered strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening. Convection may persist into late Sunday night, with an isolated severe threat spreading gradually eastward. Isolated severe storms will also be possible within the post-frontal regime across the central/northern High Plains, though guidance varies regarding the magnitude of MUCAPE in this region. High-based storms may develop into parts of the southern High Plains, with a threat of isolated strong to severe gusts. ...Parts of the Northeast/New England... Guidance varies substantially regarding the strength/timing of the shortwave trough and related flow fields that will move across New England Sunday morning. Depending on the strength of the system and the evolution of convection on D2/Saturday, there is some potential for isolated strong to severe storms Sunday across the region, given the presence of increasing buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear. A slower system could result in a more robust diurnal threat, while a faster system may confine the primary threat to the morning. ..Dean.. 06/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE INTO NORTHWEST IA...THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop on Sunday from parts of the central and northern Plains into the upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum are forecast to move from the central Rockies towards the northern Great Plains on Sunday. A surface low will move from NE/SD northeast toward Lake Superior, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the northern/central Plains. Downstream, an upper ridge will amplify further across the eastern CONUS through the day, as a shortwave trough initially over New England moves offshore. ...Great Plains into the Upper Midwest... Strong to extreme instability is again forecast to develop along/ahead of the cold front across parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Guidance generally suggests that stronger ascent and deep-layer flow associated with the ejecting mid/upper-level shortwave trough may lag behind the front, resulting in some uncertainty regarding the magnitude and coverage of the severe threat. However, strong diurnal heating will support potential for storm development in the vicinity of the front, and also southward along a surface trough into the central and perhaps southern High Plains. Given the magnitude of instability, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, with a few strong cells or clusters possible. A Slight Risk has been added from central NE into MN, where confidence is currently greatest in development of widely scattered strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening. Convection may persist into late Sunday night, with an isolated severe threat spreading gradually eastward. Isolated severe storms will also be possible within the post-frontal regime across the central/northern High Plains, though guidance varies regarding the magnitude of MUCAPE in this region. High-based storms may develop into parts of the southern High Plains, with a threat of isolated strong to severe gusts. ...Parts of the Northeast/New England... Guidance varies substantially regarding the strength/timing of the shortwave trough and related flow fields that will move across New England Sunday morning. Depending on the strength of the system and the evolution of convection on D2/Saturday, there is some potential for isolated strong to severe storms Sunday across the region, given the presence of increasing buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear. A slower system could result in a more robust diurnal threat, while a faster system may confine the primary threat to the morning. ..Dean.. 06/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE INTO NORTHWEST IA...THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop on Sunday from parts of the central and northern Plains into the upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum are forecast to move from the central Rockies towards the northern Great Plains on Sunday. A surface low will move from NE/SD northeast toward Lake Superior, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the northern/central Plains. Downstream, an upper ridge will amplify further across the eastern CONUS through the day, as a shortwave trough initially over New England moves offshore. ...Great Plains into the Upper Midwest... Strong to extreme instability is again forecast to develop along/ahead of the cold front across parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Guidance generally suggests that stronger ascent and deep-layer flow associated with the ejecting mid/upper-level shortwave trough may lag behind the front, resulting in some uncertainty regarding the magnitude and coverage of the severe threat. However, strong diurnal heating will support potential for storm development in the vicinity of the front, and also southward along a surface trough into the central and perhaps southern High Plains. Given the magnitude of instability, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, with a few strong cells or clusters possible. A Slight Risk has been added from central NE into MN, where confidence is currently greatest in development of widely scattered strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening. Convection may persist into late Sunday night, with an isolated severe threat spreading gradually eastward. Isolated severe storms will also be possible within the post-frontal regime across the central/northern High Plains, though guidance varies regarding the magnitude of MUCAPE in this region. High-based storms may develop into parts of the southern High Plains, with a threat of isolated strong to severe gusts. ...Parts of the Northeast/New England... Guidance varies substantially regarding the strength/timing of the shortwave trough and related flow fields that will move across New England Sunday morning. Depending on the strength of the system and the evolution of convection on D2/Saturday, there is some potential for isolated strong to severe storms Sunday across the region, given the presence of increasing buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear. A slower system could result in a more robust diurnal threat, while a faster system may confine the primary threat to the morning. ..Dean.. 06/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE INTO NORTHWEST IA...THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop on Sunday from parts of the central and northern Plains into the upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum are forecast to move from the central Rockies towards the northern Great Plains on Sunday. A surface low will move from NE/SD northeast toward Lake Superior, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the northern/central Plains. Downstream, an upper ridge will amplify further across the eastern CONUS through the day, as a shortwave trough initially over New England moves offshore. ...Great Plains into the Upper Midwest... Strong to extreme instability is again forecast to develop along/ahead of the cold front across parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Guidance generally suggests that stronger ascent and deep-layer flow associated with the ejecting mid/upper-level shortwave trough may lag behind the front, resulting in some uncertainty regarding the magnitude and coverage of the severe threat. However, strong diurnal heating will support potential for storm development in the vicinity of the front, and also southward along a surface trough into the central and perhaps southern High Plains. Given the magnitude of instability, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, with a few strong cells or clusters possible. A Slight Risk has been added from central NE into MN, where confidence is currently greatest in development of widely scattered strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening. Convection may persist into late Sunday night, with an isolated severe threat spreading gradually eastward. Isolated severe storms will also be possible within the post-frontal regime across the central/northern High Plains, though guidance varies regarding the magnitude of MUCAPE in this region. High-based storms may develop into parts of the southern High Plains, with a threat of isolated strong to severe gusts. ...Parts of the Northeast/New England... Guidance varies substantially regarding the strength/timing of the shortwave trough and related flow fields that will move across New England Sunday morning. Depending on the strength of the system and the evolution of convection on D2/Saturday, there is some potential for isolated strong to severe storms Sunday across the region, given the presence of increasing buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear. A slower system could result in a more robust diurnal threat, while a faster system may confine the primary threat to the morning. ..Dean.. 06/20/2025 Read more

MD 1380 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST MN INTO PARTS OF WI AND IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1380 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Areas affected...southeast MN into parts of WI and IA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 200544Z - 200745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong/isolated severe thunderstorms will develop/persist into the early morning hours. Marginally severe hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with these storms. DISCUSSION...Convection is increasing within a warm advection regime across portions of the MCD area as an 850 mb low-level jet noses into IA/southern MN. Moderate northwesterly flow aloft, becoming southerly in the low-levels, is support effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt. This should allow for some organized storm structures as convection develops southeast across a modestly unstable airmass. Cool temperatures aloft (around -10 to -12 C per 00z regional RAOBs) and steep midlevel lapse rates combined with favorable shear will support isolated marginally severe hail. Strong low-level inhibition is present given time of day and the cooling boundary layer, but any organized bowing segments could produce strong gusts as well. Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance. ..Leitman/Mosier.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 45529440 45849270 45779062 45218938 44768859 44428840 44048859 43538934 42919066 42539233 42509321 42659406 42949429 44079494 44789494 45529440 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Another day of widespread fire weather concerns is expected across the eastern Great Basin Saturday afternoon. The primary upper-level low, currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast, is forecast to shift east into the northern Great Basin through late Saturday. As this occurs, a belt of strong low to mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Basin ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Dry, windy conditions ahead of the front will promote widespread fire weather concerns over a region with ongoing active fires. ...Eastern Great Basin... Early-morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across much of the Southwest/Great Basin (overnight RH values remain in the single digits to low teens). Continued dry/windy conditions today will maintain this dry air mass through Saturday. A combination of very dry low-level conditions and abundant daytime heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing across the region, which will facilitate downward transport of 30-40 knot mid-level flow. Latest high-res ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds from southern NV/northern AZ northward into southern WY. With afternoon RH minimums in the single digits, critical conditions appear likely. Winds gusting up to 35-45 mph will support periods of extremely critical conditions. Winds are forecast to shift from southwesterly to northwesterly with the passage of the cold front during the late evening/overnight hours, but dry post-frontal conditions may support additional fire spread. ...CA Central Valley... Northerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph through the day within the Central Valley. Some degree of downslope warming will promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s by late afternoon. With dry grasses already in place, the dry/windy conditions will likely pose a fire weather concern. ...High Plains... West to southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 15-25 mph behind a surface trough/dryline draped along the High Plains. Most forecast guidance suggests that somewhat widespread elevated fire weather conditions will emerge within this regime from northeast NM into eastern CO, southeast WY, and adjacent portions of western SD, NE, and KS. Despite the potential for widespread dry/windy conditions, recent rainfall has mitigate fuel status for the time being and has promoted widespread green up of most grasses. Because of this highlights were withheld, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Another day of widespread fire weather concerns is expected across the eastern Great Basin Saturday afternoon. The primary upper-level low, currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast, is forecast to shift east into the northern Great Basin through late Saturday. As this occurs, a belt of strong low to mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Basin ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Dry, windy conditions ahead of the front will promote widespread fire weather concerns over a region with ongoing active fires. ...Eastern Great Basin... Early-morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across much of the Southwest/Great Basin (overnight RH values remain in the single digits to low teens). Continued dry/windy conditions today will maintain this dry air mass through Saturday. A combination of very dry low-level conditions and abundant daytime heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing across the region, which will facilitate downward transport of 30-40 knot mid-level flow. Latest high-res ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds from southern NV/northern AZ northward into southern WY. With afternoon RH minimums in the single digits, critical conditions appear likely. Winds gusting up to 35-45 mph will support periods of extremely critical conditions. Winds are forecast to shift from southwesterly to northwesterly with the passage of the cold front during the late evening/overnight hours, but dry post-frontal conditions may support additional fire spread. ...CA Central Valley... Northerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph through the day within the Central Valley. Some degree of downslope warming will promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s by late afternoon. With dry grasses already in place, the dry/windy conditions will likely pose a fire weather concern. ...High Plains... West to southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 15-25 mph behind a surface trough/dryline draped along the High Plains. Most forecast guidance suggests that somewhat widespread elevated fire weather conditions will emerge within this regime from northeast NM into eastern CO, southeast WY, and adjacent portions of western SD, NE, and KS. Despite the potential for widespread dry/windy conditions, recent rainfall has mitigate fuel status for the time being and has promoted widespread green up of most grasses. Because of this highlights were withheld, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Another day of widespread fire weather concerns is expected across the eastern Great Basin Saturday afternoon. The primary upper-level low, currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast, is forecast to shift east into the northern Great Basin through late Saturday. As this occurs, a belt of strong low to mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Basin ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Dry, windy conditions ahead of the front will promote widespread fire weather concerns over a region with ongoing active fires. ...Eastern Great Basin... Early-morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across much of the Southwest/Great Basin (overnight RH values remain in the single digits to low teens). Continued dry/windy conditions today will maintain this dry air mass through Saturday. A combination of very dry low-level conditions and abundant daytime heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing across the region, which will facilitate downward transport of 30-40 knot mid-level flow. Latest high-res ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds from southern NV/northern AZ northward into southern WY. With afternoon RH minimums in the single digits, critical conditions appear likely. Winds gusting up to 35-45 mph will support periods of extremely critical conditions. Winds are forecast to shift from southwesterly to northwesterly with the passage of the cold front during the late evening/overnight hours, but dry post-frontal conditions may support additional fire spread. ...CA Central Valley... Northerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph through the day within the Central Valley. Some degree of downslope warming will promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s by late afternoon. With dry grasses already in place, the dry/windy conditions will likely pose a fire weather concern. ...High Plains... West to southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 15-25 mph behind a surface trough/dryline draped along the High Plains. Most forecast guidance suggests that somewhat widespread elevated fire weather conditions will emerge within this regime from northeast NM into eastern CO, southeast WY, and adjacent portions of western SD, NE, and KS. Despite the potential for widespread dry/windy conditions, recent rainfall has mitigate fuel status for the time being and has promoted widespread green up of most grasses. Because of this highlights were withheld, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Another day of widespread fire weather concerns is expected across the eastern Great Basin Saturday afternoon. The primary upper-level low, currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast, is forecast to shift east into the northern Great Basin through late Saturday. As this occurs, a belt of strong low to mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Basin ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Dry, windy conditions ahead of the front will promote widespread fire weather concerns over a region with ongoing active fires. ...Eastern Great Basin... Early-morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across much of the Southwest/Great Basin (overnight RH values remain in the single digits to low teens). Continued dry/windy conditions today will maintain this dry air mass through Saturday. A combination of very dry low-level conditions and abundant daytime heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing across the region, which will facilitate downward transport of 30-40 knot mid-level flow. Latest high-res ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds from southern NV/northern AZ northward into southern WY. With afternoon RH minimums in the single digits, critical conditions appear likely. Winds gusting up to 35-45 mph will support periods of extremely critical conditions. Winds are forecast to shift from southwesterly to northwesterly with the passage of the cold front during the late evening/overnight hours, but dry post-frontal conditions may support additional fire spread. ...CA Central Valley... Northerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph through the day within the Central Valley. Some degree of downslope warming will promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s by late afternoon. With dry grasses already in place, the dry/windy conditions will likely pose a fire weather concern. ...High Plains... West to southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 15-25 mph behind a surface trough/dryline draped along the High Plains. Most forecast guidance suggests that somewhat widespread elevated fire weather conditions will emerge within this regime from northeast NM into eastern CO, southeast WY, and adjacent portions of western SD, NE, and KS. Despite the potential for widespread dry/windy conditions, recent rainfall has mitigate fuel status for the time being and has promoted widespread green up of most grasses. Because of this highlights were withheld, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Another day of widespread fire weather concerns is expected across the eastern Great Basin Saturday afternoon. The primary upper-level low, currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast, is forecast to shift east into the northern Great Basin through late Saturday. As this occurs, a belt of strong low to mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Basin ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Dry, windy conditions ahead of the front will promote widespread fire weather concerns over a region with ongoing active fires. ...Eastern Great Basin... Early-morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across much of the Southwest/Great Basin (overnight RH values remain in the single digits to low teens). Continued dry/windy conditions today will maintain this dry air mass through Saturday. A combination of very dry low-level conditions and abundant daytime heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing across the region, which will facilitate downward transport of 30-40 knot mid-level flow. Latest high-res ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds from southern NV/northern AZ northward into southern WY. With afternoon RH minimums in the single digits, critical conditions appear likely. Winds gusting up to 35-45 mph will support periods of extremely critical conditions. Winds are forecast to shift from southwesterly to northwesterly with the passage of the cold front during the late evening/overnight hours, but dry post-frontal conditions may support additional fire spread. ...CA Central Valley... Northerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph through the day within the Central Valley. Some degree of downslope warming will promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s by late afternoon. With dry grasses already in place, the dry/windy conditions will likely pose a fire weather concern. ...High Plains... West to southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 15-25 mph behind a surface trough/dryline draped along the High Plains. Most forecast guidance suggests that somewhat widespread elevated fire weather conditions will emerge within this regime from northeast NM into eastern CO, southeast WY, and adjacent portions of western SD, NE, and KS. Despite the potential for widespread dry/windy conditions, recent rainfall has mitigate fuel status for the time being and has promoted widespread green up of most grasses. Because of this highlights were withheld, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Another day of widespread fire weather concerns is expected across the eastern Great Basin Saturday afternoon. The primary upper-level low, currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast, is forecast to shift east into the northern Great Basin through late Saturday. As this occurs, a belt of strong low to mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Basin ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Dry, windy conditions ahead of the front will promote widespread fire weather concerns over a region with ongoing active fires. ...Eastern Great Basin... Early-morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across much of the Southwest/Great Basin (overnight RH values remain in the single digits to low teens). Continued dry/windy conditions today will maintain this dry air mass through Saturday. A combination of very dry low-level conditions and abundant daytime heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing across the region, which will facilitate downward transport of 30-40 knot mid-level flow. Latest high-res ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds from southern NV/northern AZ northward into southern WY. With afternoon RH minimums in the single digits, critical conditions appear likely. Winds gusting up to 35-45 mph will support periods of extremely critical conditions. Winds are forecast to shift from southwesterly to northwesterly with the passage of the cold front during the late evening/overnight hours, but dry post-frontal conditions may support additional fire spread. ...CA Central Valley... Northerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph through the day within the Central Valley. Some degree of downslope warming will promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s by late afternoon. With dry grasses already in place, the dry/windy conditions will likely pose a fire weather concern. ...High Plains... West to southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 15-25 mph behind a surface trough/dryline draped along the High Plains. Most forecast guidance suggests that somewhat widespread elevated fire weather conditions will emerge within this regime from northeast NM into eastern CO, southeast WY, and adjacent portions of western SD, NE, and KS. Despite the potential for widespread dry/windy conditions, recent rainfall has mitigate fuel status for the time being and has promoted widespread green up of most grasses. Because of this highlights were withheld, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Another day of widespread fire weather concerns is expected across the eastern Great Basin Saturday afternoon. The primary upper-level low, currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast, is forecast to shift east into the northern Great Basin through late Saturday. As this occurs, a belt of strong low to mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Basin ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Dry, windy conditions ahead of the front will promote widespread fire weather concerns over a region with ongoing active fires. ...Eastern Great Basin... Early-morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across much of the Southwest/Great Basin (overnight RH values remain in the single digits to low teens). Continued dry/windy conditions today will maintain this dry air mass through Saturday. A combination of very dry low-level conditions and abundant daytime heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing across the region, which will facilitate downward transport of 30-40 knot mid-level flow. Latest high-res ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds from southern NV/northern AZ northward into southern WY. With afternoon RH minimums in the single digits, critical conditions appear likely. Winds gusting up to 35-45 mph will support periods of extremely critical conditions. Winds are forecast to shift from southwesterly to northwesterly with the passage of the cold front during the late evening/overnight hours, but dry post-frontal conditions may support additional fire spread. ...CA Central Valley... Northerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph through the day within the Central Valley. Some degree of downslope warming will promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s by late afternoon. With dry grasses already in place, the dry/windy conditions will likely pose a fire weather concern. ...High Plains... West to southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 15-25 mph behind a surface trough/dryline draped along the High Plains. Most forecast guidance suggests that somewhat widespread elevated fire weather conditions will emerge within this regime from northeast NM into eastern CO, southeast WY, and adjacent portions of western SD, NE, and KS. Despite the potential for widespread dry/windy conditions, recent rainfall has mitigate fuel status for the time being and has promoted widespread green up of most grasses. Because of this highlights were withheld, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW BKX TO 35 N ATY TO 40 SSW TVF. ..LEITMAN..06/20/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...MPX...ABR...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-009-011-023-027-033-041-051-063-067-073-081-083-093-097- 101-105-107-111-117-121-127-129-133-145-149-151-153-155-159-167- 173-200740- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER BENTON BIG STONE CHIPPEWA CLAY COTTONWOOD DOUGLAS GRANT JACKSON KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON MEEKER MORRISON MURRAY NOBLES NORMAN OTTER TAIL PIPESTONE POPE REDWOOD RENVILLE ROCK STEARNS STEVENS SWIFT TODD TRAVERSE WADENA WILKIN YELLOW MEDICINE SDC011-029-039-051-057-109-200740- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW BKX TO 35 N ATY TO 40 SSW TVF. ..LEITMAN..06/20/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...MPX...ABR...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-009-011-023-027-033-041-051-063-067-073-081-083-093-097- 101-105-107-111-117-121-127-129-133-145-149-151-153-155-159-167- 173-200740- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER BENTON BIG STONE CHIPPEWA CLAY COTTONWOOD DOUGLAS GRANT JACKSON KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON MEEKER MORRISON MURRAY NOBLES NORMAN OTTER TAIL PIPESTONE POPE REDWOOD RENVILLE ROCK STEARNS STEVENS SWIFT TODD TRAVERSE WADENA WILKIN YELLOW MEDICINE SDC011-029-039-051-057-109-200740- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more