Severe Storms

WW 0444 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 444 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW GSB TO 25 SE RZZ TO 30 SW ORF TO 45 ESE ORF. ..MOORE..06/20/25 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 444 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-041-053-055-065-073-091-095-117-139-143-147-177- 187-195-200340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CHOWAN CURRITUCK DARE EDGECOMBE GATES HERTFORD HYDE MARTIN PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT TYRRELL WASHINGTON WILSON AMZ131-135-136-150-152-230-231-ANZ633-658-200340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ALLIGATOR RIVER PAMLICO SOUND PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS Read more

WW 444 SEVERE TSTM NC CW 192305Z - 200300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 444 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 705 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central into Northeast and Eastern North Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday evening from 705 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms will likely move eastward across the Watch this evening with an attendant risk for mainly damaging gusts (55-65 mph). The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west northwest of Raleigh NC to 40 miles east southeast of Elizabeth City NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 441...WW 442...WW 443... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Smith Read more

WW 0445 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 445 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..06/20/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 445 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC005-007-009-015-019-021-025-027-029-031-037-041-043-045-047- 049-051-055-057-059-061-065-069-071-075-079-083-085-089-093-095- 101-103-200240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENSON BILLINGS BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH CAVALIER DICKEY DUNN EDDY EMMONS FOSTER GRANT HETTINGER KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCHENRY MCINTOSH MCLEAN MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN SIOUX STARK STUTSMAN TOWNER WARD WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0443 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 443 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PWM TO 10 SE BML TO 70 N BML TO 15 NE HUL. ..MOORE..06/20/25 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 443 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC007-017-021-025-200240- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN OXFORD PISCATAQUIS SOMERSET THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0443 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 443 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PWM TO 10 SE BML TO 70 N BML TO 15 NE HUL. ..MOORE..06/20/25 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 443 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC007-017-021-025-200240- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN OXFORD PISCATAQUIS SOMERSET THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0443 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 443 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PWM TO 10 SE BML TO 70 N BML TO 15 NE HUL. ..MOORE..06/20/25 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 443 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC007-017-021-025-200240- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN OXFORD PISCATAQUIS SOMERSET THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0443 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 443 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PWM TO 10 SE BML TO 70 N BML TO 15 NE HUL. ..MOORE..06/20/25 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 443 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC007-017-021-025-200240- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN OXFORD PISCATAQUIS SOMERSET THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0443 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 443 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PWM TO 10 SE BML TO 70 N BML TO 15 NE HUL. ..MOORE..06/20/25 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 443 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC007-017-021-025-200240- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN OXFORD PISCATAQUIS SOMERSET THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0443 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 443 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PWM TO 10 SE BML TO 70 N BML TO 15 NE HUL. ..MOORE..06/20/25 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 443 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC007-017-021-025-200240- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN OXFORD PISCATAQUIS SOMERSET THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 443 SEVERE TSTM ME NH 191920Z - 200300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 443 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 320 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Northern Maine New Hampshire * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will spread eastward across the watch area through the afternoon and evening, with the strongest cells capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of Caribou ME to 30 miles east southeast of Keene NH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 441...WW 442... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0444 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 444 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW SOP TO 25 NW RWI TO 25 ESE RZZ TO 25 NNW ORF. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1376 ..MOORE..06/20/25 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 444 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-037-041-053-055-065-073-083-091-095-117-127-139- 143-147-177-183-187-195-200240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CHATHAM CHOWAN CURRITUCK DARE EDGECOMBE GATES HALIFAX HERTFORD HYDE MARTIN NASH PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT TYRRELL WAKE WASHINGTON WILSON AMZ131-135-136-150-152-230-231-ANZ633-658-200240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ALLIGATOR RIVER Read more

MD 1375 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1375 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Areas affected...Central Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 192329Z - 200130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening along the dryline. Hail and wind are the primary concerns, but storm coverage suggests a watch is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Strong boundary-layer heating has contributed to very steep 0-3km lapse rates along the dryline this afternoon as temperatures warmed through the mid and upper 90s. As a result, CINH is minimal and low-level convergence appears more than adequate for isolated robust convection from northern NE, southwest across western KS into southeast CO. Slow-moving supercells may continue along this corridor deep into the evening hours as a LLJ is expected to strengthen across the central Plains after sunset. However, storm coverage may prove too sparse to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch. ..Darrow/Smith.. 06/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB... LAT...LON 37150304 39400133 42559959 42639846 39999958 37580152 37150304 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected across the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible from central and eastern North Carolina north-northeastward to New England. ...Northern and Central Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... Latest water vapor imagery at mid-levels shows a ridge over the High Plains, with west-northwesterly flow over much of the central and northern Plains. At the surface, a 1002 mb low is located over north-central South Dakota, with a trough extending south-southwestward into northwest Kansas. An axis of low-level moisture is analyzed from central Plains northward to near the surface low and northwestward into western North Dakota. Along this corridor, the RAP has MLCAPE mostly in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. A severe storm is currently ongoing near the instability max in southwest North Dakota, with additional isolated severe storms located in north-central Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Moderate deep-layer shear is present across much of the central and northern Plains, which will contribute to an environment supportive of supercells this evening. A severe threat with more longevity is expected in the northern Plains. The Bismarck 00Z sounding has a 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with nearly dry adiabatic low to mid-level lapse rates. This will support supercells with large to very large hail, possibly greater than 2 inches in diameter. This, combined with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F and substantial directional shear from the surface to 700 mb, will also support an isolated tornado threat. Concerning future convective development, the latest HRRR maintains a widely spaced coverage for much of the early to mid evening, but then begins to increases thunderstorm coverage over eastern parts of the northern Plains late this evening. As the nose of a low-level jet moves into the eastern Dakotas, a cluster of severe storms is expected to develop and move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley tonight. Supercells with large hail will be possible with cells than remain discrete. However, linear mode should become favored, which will likely support an increase in the potential for severe gusts. ...Eastern States... A mid-level trough is currently evident on water vapor imagery over the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass is present from the Carolinas north-northeastward into New England. The RAP suggests that instability is weak along and ahead of the surface trough. Short-term model forecasts suggest that scattered convective coverage will continue over the next few hours. 00Z soundings across the region show moderate deep-layer shear and have steep lapse rates around 850 mb. This should support an isolated severe threat over the next couple of hours as low-level flow gradually increases. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat, associated with short bowing line segments. ..Broyles.. 06/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected across the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible from central and eastern North Carolina north-northeastward to New England. ...Northern and Central Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... Latest water vapor imagery at mid-levels shows a ridge over the High Plains, with west-northwesterly flow over much of the central and northern Plains. At the surface, a 1002 mb low is located over north-central South Dakota, with a trough extending south-southwestward into northwest Kansas. An axis of low-level moisture is analyzed from central Plains northward to near the surface low and northwestward into western North Dakota. Along this corridor, the RAP has MLCAPE mostly in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. A severe storm is currently ongoing near the instability max in southwest North Dakota, with additional isolated severe storms located in north-central Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Moderate deep-layer shear is present across much of the central and northern Plains, which will contribute to an environment supportive of supercells this evening. A severe threat with more longevity is expected in the northern Plains. The Bismarck 00Z sounding has a 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with nearly dry adiabatic low to mid-level lapse rates. This will support supercells with large to very large hail, possibly greater than 2 inches in diameter. This, combined with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F and substantial directional shear from the surface to 700 mb, will also support an isolated tornado threat. Concerning future convective development, the latest HRRR maintains a widely spaced coverage for much of the early to mid evening, but then begins to increases thunderstorm coverage over eastern parts of the northern Plains late this evening. As the nose of a low-level jet moves into the eastern Dakotas, a cluster of severe storms is expected to develop and move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley tonight. Supercells with large hail will be possible with cells than remain discrete. However, linear mode should become favored, which will likely support an increase in the potential for severe gusts. ...Eastern States... A mid-level trough is currently evident on water vapor imagery over the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass is present from the Carolinas north-northeastward into New England. The RAP suggests that instability is weak along and ahead of the surface trough. Short-term model forecasts suggest that scattered convective coverage will continue over the next few hours. 00Z soundings across the region show moderate deep-layer shear and have steep lapse rates around 850 mb. This should support an isolated severe threat over the next couple of hours as low-level flow gradually increases. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat, associated with short bowing line segments. ..Broyles.. 06/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected across the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible from central and eastern North Carolina north-northeastward to New England. ...Northern and Central Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... Latest water vapor imagery at mid-levels shows a ridge over the High Plains, with west-northwesterly flow over much of the central and northern Plains. At the surface, a 1002 mb low is located over north-central South Dakota, with a trough extending south-southwestward into northwest Kansas. An axis of low-level moisture is analyzed from central Plains northward to near the surface low and northwestward into western North Dakota. Along this corridor, the RAP has MLCAPE mostly in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. A severe storm is currently ongoing near the instability max in southwest North Dakota, with additional isolated severe storms located in north-central Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Moderate deep-layer shear is present across much of the central and northern Plains, which will contribute to an environment supportive of supercells this evening. A severe threat with more longevity is expected in the northern Plains. The Bismarck 00Z sounding has a 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with nearly dry adiabatic low to mid-level lapse rates. This will support supercells with large to very large hail, possibly greater than 2 inches in diameter. This, combined with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F and substantial directional shear from the surface to 700 mb, will also support an isolated tornado threat. Concerning future convective development, the latest HRRR maintains a widely spaced coverage for much of the early to mid evening, but then begins to increases thunderstorm coverage over eastern parts of the northern Plains late this evening. As the nose of a low-level jet moves into the eastern Dakotas, a cluster of severe storms is expected to develop and move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley tonight. Supercells with large hail will be possible with cells than remain discrete. However, linear mode should become favored, which will likely support an increase in the potential for severe gusts. ...Eastern States... A mid-level trough is currently evident on water vapor imagery over the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass is present from the Carolinas north-northeastward into New England. The RAP suggests that instability is weak along and ahead of the surface trough. Short-term model forecasts suggest that scattered convective coverage will continue over the next few hours. 00Z soundings across the region show moderate deep-layer shear and have steep lapse rates around 850 mb. This should support an isolated severe threat over the next couple of hours as low-level flow gradually increases. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat, associated with short bowing line segments. ..Broyles.. 06/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected across the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible from central and eastern North Carolina north-northeastward to New England. ...Northern and Central Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... Latest water vapor imagery at mid-levels shows a ridge over the High Plains, with west-northwesterly flow over much of the central and northern Plains. At the surface, a 1002 mb low is located over north-central South Dakota, with a trough extending south-southwestward into northwest Kansas. An axis of low-level moisture is analyzed from central Plains northward to near the surface low and northwestward into western North Dakota. Along this corridor, the RAP has MLCAPE mostly in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. A severe storm is currently ongoing near the instability max in southwest North Dakota, with additional isolated severe storms located in north-central Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Moderate deep-layer shear is present across much of the central and northern Plains, which will contribute to an environment supportive of supercells this evening. A severe threat with more longevity is expected in the northern Plains. The Bismarck 00Z sounding has a 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with nearly dry adiabatic low to mid-level lapse rates. This will support supercells with large to very large hail, possibly greater than 2 inches in diameter. This, combined with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F and substantial directional shear from the surface to 700 mb, will also support an isolated tornado threat. Concerning future convective development, the latest HRRR maintains a widely spaced coverage for much of the early to mid evening, but then begins to increases thunderstorm coverage over eastern parts of the northern Plains late this evening. As the nose of a low-level jet moves into the eastern Dakotas, a cluster of severe storms is expected to develop and move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley tonight. Supercells with large hail will be possible with cells than remain discrete. However, linear mode should become favored, which will likely support an increase in the potential for severe gusts. ...Eastern States... A mid-level trough is currently evident on water vapor imagery over the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass is present from the Carolinas north-northeastward into New England. The RAP suggests that instability is weak along and ahead of the surface trough. Short-term model forecasts suggest that scattered convective coverage will continue over the next few hours. 00Z soundings across the region show moderate deep-layer shear and have steep lapse rates around 850 mb. This should support an isolated severe threat over the next couple of hours as low-level flow gradually increases. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat, associated with short bowing line segments. ..Broyles.. 06/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected across the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible from central and eastern North Carolina north-northeastward to New England. ...Northern and Central Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... Latest water vapor imagery at mid-levels shows a ridge over the High Plains, with west-northwesterly flow over much of the central and northern Plains. At the surface, a 1002 mb low is located over north-central South Dakota, with a trough extending south-southwestward into northwest Kansas. An axis of low-level moisture is analyzed from central Plains northward to near the surface low and northwestward into western North Dakota. Along this corridor, the RAP has MLCAPE mostly in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. A severe storm is currently ongoing near the instability max in southwest North Dakota, with additional isolated severe storms located in north-central Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Moderate deep-layer shear is present across much of the central and northern Plains, which will contribute to an environment supportive of supercells this evening. A severe threat with more longevity is expected in the northern Plains. The Bismarck 00Z sounding has a 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with nearly dry adiabatic low to mid-level lapse rates. This will support supercells with large to very large hail, possibly greater than 2 inches in diameter. This, combined with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F and substantial directional shear from the surface to 700 mb, will also support an isolated tornado threat. Concerning future convective development, the latest HRRR maintains a widely spaced coverage for much of the early to mid evening, but then begins to increases thunderstorm coverage over eastern parts of the northern Plains late this evening. As the nose of a low-level jet moves into the eastern Dakotas, a cluster of severe storms is expected to develop and move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley tonight. Supercells with large hail will be possible with cells than remain discrete. However, linear mode should become favored, which will likely support an increase in the potential for severe gusts. ...Eastern States... A mid-level trough is currently evident on water vapor imagery over the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass is present from the Carolinas north-northeastward into New England. The RAP suggests that instability is weak along and ahead of the surface trough. Short-term model forecasts suggest that scattered convective coverage will continue over the next few hours. 00Z soundings across the region show moderate deep-layer shear and have steep lapse rates around 850 mb. This should support an isolated severe threat over the next couple of hours as low-level flow gradually increases. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat, associated with short bowing line segments. ..Broyles.. 06/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected across the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible from central and eastern North Carolina north-northeastward to New England. ...Northern and Central Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... Latest water vapor imagery at mid-levels shows a ridge over the High Plains, with west-northwesterly flow over much of the central and northern Plains. At the surface, a 1002 mb low is located over north-central South Dakota, with a trough extending south-southwestward into northwest Kansas. An axis of low-level moisture is analyzed from central Plains northward to near the surface low and northwestward into western North Dakota. Along this corridor, the RAP has MLCAPE mostly in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. A severe storm is currently ongoing near the instability max in southwest North Dakota, with additional isolated severe storms located in north-central Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Moderate deep-layer shear is present across much of the central and northern Plains, which will contribute to an environment supportive of supercells this evening. A severe threat with more longevity is expected in the northern Plains. The Bismarck 00Z sounding has a 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with nearly dry adiabatic low to mid-level lapse rates. This will support supercells with large to very large hail, possibly greater than 2 inches in diameter. This, combined with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F and substantial directional shear from the surface to 700 mb, will also support an isolated tornado threat. Concerning future convective development, the latest HRRR maintains a widely spaced coverage for much of the early to mid evening, but then begins to increases thunderstorm coverage over eastern parts of the northern Plains late this evening. As the nose of a low-level jet moves into the eastern Dakotas, a cluster of severe storms is expected to develop and move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley tonight. Supercells with large hail will be possible with cells than remain discrete. However, linear mode should become favored, which will likely support an increase in the potential for severe gusts. ...Eastern States... A mid-level trough is currently evident on water vapor imagery over the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass is present from the Carolinas north-northeastward into New England. The RAP suggests that instability is weak along and ahead of the surface trough. Short-term model forecasts suggest that scattered convective coverage will continue over the next few hours. 00Z soundings across the region show moderate deep-layer shear and have steep lapse rates around 850 mb. This should support an isolated severe threat over the next couple of hours as low-level flow gradually increases. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat, associated with short bowing line segments. ..Broyles.. 06/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected across the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible from central and eastern North Carolina north-northeastward to New England. ...Northern and Central Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... Latest water vapor imagery at mid-levels shows a ridge over the High Plains, with west-northwesterly flow over much of the central and northern Plains. At the surface, a 1002 mb low is located over north-central South Dakota, with a trough extending south-southwestward into northwest Kansas. An axis of low-level moisture is analyzed from central Plains northward to near the surface low and northwestward into western North Dakota. Along this corridor, the RAP has MLCAPE mostly in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. A severe storm is currently ongoing near the instability max in southwest North Dakota, with additional isolated severe storms located in north-central Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Moderate deep-layer shear is present across much of the central and northern Plains, which will contribute to an environment supportive of supercells this evening. A severe threat with more longevity is expected in the northern Plains. The Bismarck 00Z sounding has a 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with nearly dry adiabatic low to mid-level lapse rates. This will support supercells with large to very large hail, possibly greater than 2 inches in diameter. This, combined with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F and substantial directional shear from the surface to 700 mb, will also support an isolated tornado threat. Concerning future convective development, the latest HRRR maintains a widely spaced coverage for much of the early to mid evening, but then begins to increases thunderstorm coverage over eastern parts of the northern Plains late this evening. As the nose of a low-level jet moves into the eastern Dakotas, a cluster of severe storms is expected to develop and move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley tonight. Supercells with large hail will be possible with cells than remain discrete. However, linear mode should become favored, which will likely support an increase in the potential for severe gusts. ...Eastern States... A mid-level trough is currently evident on water vapor imagery over the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass is present from the Carolinas north-northeastward into New England. The RAP suggests that instability is weak along and ahead of the surface trough. Short-term model forecasts suggest that scattered convective coverage will continue over the next few hours. 00Z soundings across the region show moderate deep-layer shear and have steep lapse rates around 850 mb. This should support an isolated severe threat over the next couple of hours as low-level flow gradually increases. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat, associated with short bowing line segments. ..Broyles.. 06/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected across the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible from central and eastern North Carolina north-northeastward to New England. ...Northern and Central Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... Latest water vapor imagery at mid-levels shows a ridge over the High Plains, with west-northwesterly flow over much of the central and northern Plains. At the surface, a 1002 mb low is located over north-central South Dakota, with a trough extending south-southwestward into northwest Kansas. An axis of low-level moisture is analyzed from central Plains northward to near the surface low and northwestward into western North Dakota. Along this corridor, the RAP has MLCAPE mostly in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. A severe storm is currently ongoing near the instability max in southwest North Dakota, with additional isolated severe storms located in north-central Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Moderate deep-layer shear is present across much of the central and northern Plains, which will contribute to an environment supportive of supercells this evening. A severe threat with more longevity is expected in the northern Plains. The Bismarck 00Z sounding has a 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with nearly dry adiabatic low to mid-level lapse rates. This will support supercells with large to very large hail, possibly greater than 2 inches in diameter. This, combined with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F and substantial directional shear from the surface to 700 mb, will also support an isolated tornado threat. Concerning future convective development, the latest HRRR maintains a widely spaced coverage for much of the early to mid evening, but then begins to increases thunderstorm coverage over eastern parts of the northern Plains late this evening. As the nose of a low-level jet moves into the eastern Dakotas, a cluster of severe storms is expected to develop and move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley tonight. Supercells with large hail will be possible with cells than remain discrete. However, linear mode should become favored, which will likely support an increase in the potential for severe gusts. ...Eastern States... A mid-level trough is currently evident on water vapor imagery over the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass is present from the Carolinas north-northeastward into New England. The RAP suggests that instability is weak along and ahead of the surface trough. Short-term model forecasts suggest that scattered convective coverage will continue over the next few hours. 00Z soundings across the region show moderate deep-layer shear and have steep lapse rates around 850 mb. This should support an isolated severe threat over the next couple of hours as low-level flow gradually increases. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat, associated with short bowing line segments. ..Broyles.. 06/20/2025 Read more