Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another day of widespread fire weather concerns is expected across the eastern Great Basin Saturday afternoon. The primary upper-level low, currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast, is forecast to shift east into the northern Great Basin through late Saturday. As this occurs, a belt of strong low to mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Basin ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Dry, windy conditions ahead of the front will promote widespread fire weather concerns over a region with ongoing active fires. ...Eastern Great Basin... Early-morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across much of the Southwest/Great Basin (overnight RH values remain in the single digits to low teens). Continued dry/windy conditions today will maintain this dry air mass through Saturday. A combination of very dry low-level conditions and abundant daytime heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing across the region, which will facilitate downward transport of 30-40 knot mid-level flow. Latest high-res ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds from southern NV/northern AZ northward into southern WY. With afternoon RH minimums in the single digits, critical conditions appear likely. Winds gusting up to 35-45 mph will support periods of extremely critical conditions. Winds are forecast to shift from southwesterly to northwesterly with the passage of the cold front during the late evening/overnight hours, but dry post-frontal conditions may support additional fire spread. ...CA Central Valley... Northerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph through the day within the Central Valley. Some degree of downslope warming will promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s by late afternoon. With dry grasses already in place, the dry/windy conditions will likely pose a fire weather concern. ...High Plains... West to southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 15-25 mph behind a surface trough/dryline draped along the High Plains. Most forecast guidance suggests that somewhat widespread elevated fire weather conditions will emerge within this regime from northeast NM into eastern CO, southeast WY, and adjacent portions of western SD, NE, and KS. Despite the potential for widespread dry/windy conditions, recent rainfall has mitigate fuel status for the time being and has promoted widespread green up of most grasses. Because of this highlights were withheld, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another day of widespread fire weather concerns is expected across the eastern Great Basin Saturday afternoon. The primary upper-level low, currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast, is forecast to shift east into the northern Great Basin through late Saturday. As this occurs, a belt of strong low to mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Basin ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Dry, windy conditions ahead of the front will promote widespread fire weather concerns over a region with ongoing active fires. ...Eastern Great Basin... Early-morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across much of the Southwest/Great Basin (overnight RH values remain in the single digits to low teens). Continued dry/windy conditions today will maintain this dry air mass through Saturday. A combination of very dry low-level conditions and abundant daytime heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing across the region, which will facilitate downward transport of 30-40 knot mid-level flow. Latest high-res ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds from southern NV/northern AZ northward into southern WY. With afternoon RH minimums in the single digits, critical conditions appear likely. Winds gusting up to 35-45 mph will support periods of extremely critical conditions. Winds are forecast to shift from southwesterly to northwesterly with the passage of the cold front during the late evening/overnight hours, but dry post-frontal conditions may support additional fire spread. ...CA Central Valley... Northerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph through the day within the Central Valley. Some degree of downslope warming will promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s by late afternoon. With dry grasses already in place, the dry/windy conditions will likely pose a fire weather concern. ...High Plains... West to southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 15-25 mph behind a surface trough/dryline draped along the High Plains. Most forecast guidance suggests that somewhat widespread elevated fire weather conditions will emerge within this regime from northeast NM into eastern CO, southeast WY, and adjacent portions of western SD, NE, and KS. Despite the potential for widespread dry/windy conditions, recent rainfall has mitigate fuel status for the time being and has promoted widespread green up of most grasses. Because of this highlights were withheld, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another day of widespread fire weather concerns is expected across the eastern Great Basin Saturday afternoon. The primary upper-level low, currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast, is forecast to shift east into the northern Great Basin through late Saturday. As this occurs, a belt of strong low to mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Basin ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Dry, windy conditions ahead of the front will promote widespread fire weather concerns over a region with ongoing active fires. ...Eastern Great Basin... Early-morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across much of the Southwest/Great Basin (overnight RH values remain in the single digits to low teens). Continued dry/windy conditions today will maintain this dry air mass through Saturday. A combination of very dry low-level conditions and abundant daytime heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing across the region, which will facilitate downward transport of 30-40 knot mid-level flow. Latest high-res ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds from southern NV/northern AZ northward into southern WY. With afternoon RH minimums in the single digits, critical conditions appear likely. Winds gusting up to 35-45 mph will support periods of extremely critical conditions. Winds are forecast to shift from southwesterly to northwesterly with the passage of the cold front during the late evening/overnight hours, but dry post-frontal conditions may support additional fire spread. ...CA Central Valley... Northerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph through the day within the Central Valley. Some degree of downslope warming will promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s by late afternoon. With dry grasses already in place, the dry/windy conditions will likely pose a fire weather concern. ...High Plains... West to southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 15-25 mph behind a surface trough/dryline draped along the High Plains. Most forecast guidance suggests that somewhat widespread elevated fire weather conditions will emerge within this regime from northeast NM into eastern CO, southeast WY, and adjacent portions of western SD, NE, and KS. Despite the potential for widespread dry/windy conditions, recent rainfall has mitigate fuel status for the time being and has promoted widespread green up of most grasses. Because of this highlights were withheld, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another day of widespread fire weather concerns is expected across the eastern Great Basin Saturday afternoon. The primary upper-level low, currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast, is forecast to shift east into the northern Great Basin through late Saturday. As this occurs, a belt of strong low to mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Basin ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Dry, windy conditions ahead of the front will promote widespread fire weather concerns over a region with ongoing active fires. ...Eastern Great Basin... Early-morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across much of the Southwest/Great Basin (overnight RH values remain in the single digits to low teens). Continued dry/windy conditions today will maintain this dry air mass through Saturday. A combination of very dry low-level conditions and abundant daytime heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing across the region, which will facilitate downward transport of 30-40 knot mid-level flow. Latest high-res ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds from southern NV/northern AZ northward into southern WY. With afternoon RH minimums in the single digits, critical conditions appear likely. Winds gusting up to 35-45 mph will support periods of extremely critical conditions. Winds are forecast to shift from southwesterly to northwesterly with the passage of the cold front during the late evening/overnight hours, but dry post-frontal conditions may support additional fire spread. ...CA Central Valley... Northerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph through the day within the Central Valley. Some degree of downslope warming will promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s by late afternoon. With dry grasses already in place, the dry/windy conditions will likely pose a fire weather concern. ...High Plains... West to southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 15-25 mph behind a surface trough/dryline draped along the High Plains. Most forecast guidance suggests that somewhat widespread elevated fire weather conditions will emerge within this regime from northeast NM into eastern CO, southeast WY, and adjacent portions of western SD, NE, and KS. Despite the potential for widespread dry/windy conditions, recent rainfall has mitigate fuel status for the time being and has promoted widespread green up of most grasses. Because of this highlights were withheld, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another day of widespread fire weather concerns is expected across the eastern Great Basin Saturday afternoon. The primary upper-level low, currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast, is forecast to shift east into the northern Great Basin through late Saturday. As this occurs, a belt of strong low to mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Basin ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Dry, windy conditions ahead of the front will promote widespread fire weather concerns over a region with ongoing active fires. ...Eastern Great Basin... Early-morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across much of the Southwest/Great Basin (overnight RH values remain in the single digits to low teens). Continued dry/windy conditions today will maintain this dry air mass through Saturday. A combination of very dry low-level conditions and abundant daytime heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing across the region, which will facilitate downward transport of 30-40 knot mid-level flow. Latest high-res ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds from southern NV/northern AZ northward into southern WY. With afternoon RH minimums in the single digits, critical conditions appear likely. Winds gusting up to 35-45 mph will support periods of extremely critical conditions. Winds are forecast to shift from southwesterly to northwesterly with the passage of the cold front during the late evening/overnight hours, but dry post-frontal conditions may support additional fire spread. ...CA Central Valley... Northerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph through the day within the Central Valley. Some degree of downslope warming will promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s by late afternoon. With dry grasses already in place, the dry/windy conditions will likely pose a fire weather concern. ...High Plains... West to southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 15-25 mph behind a surface trough/dryline draped along the High Plains. Most forecast guidance suggests that somewhat widespread elevated fire weather conditions will emerge within this regime from northeast NM into eastern CO, southeast WY, and adjacent portions of western SD, NE, and KS. Despite the potential for widespread dry/windy conditions, recent rainfall has mitigate fuel status for the time being and has promoted widespread green up of most grasses. Because of this highlights were withheld, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another day of widespread fire weather concerns is expected across the eastern Great Basin Saturday afternoon. The primary upper-level low, currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast, is forecast to shift east into the northern Great Basin through late Saturday. As this occurs, a belt of strong low to mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Basin ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Dry, windy conditions ahead of the front will promote widespread fire weather concerns over a region with ongoing active fires. ...Eastern Great Basin... Early-morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across much of the Southwest/Great Basin (overnight RH values remain in the single digits to low teens). Continued dry/windy conditions today will maintain this dry air mass through Saturday. A combination of very dry low-level conditions and abundant daytime heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing across the region, which will facilitate downward transport of 30-40 knot mid-level flow. Latest high-res ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds from southern NV/northern AZ northward into southern WY. With afternoon RH minimums in the single digits, critical conditions appear likely. Winds gusting up to 35-45 mph will support periods of extremely critical conditions. Winds are forecast to shift from southwesterly to northwesterly with the passage of the cold front during the late evening/overnight hours, but dry post-frontal conditions may support additional fire spread. ...CA Central Valley... Northerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph through the day within the Central Valley. Some degree of downslope warming will promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s by late afternoon. With dry grasses already in place, the dry/windy conditions will likely pose a fire weather concern. ...High Plains... West to southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 15-25 mph behind a surface trough/dryline draped along the High Plains. Most forecast guidance suggests that somewhat widespread elevated fire weather conditions will emerge within this regime from northeast NM into eastern CO, southeast WY, and adjacent portions of western SD, NE, and KS. Despite the potential for widespread dry/windy conditions, recent rainfall has mitigate fuel status for the time being and has promoted widespread green up of most grasses. Because of this highlights were withheld, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another day of widespread fire weather concerns is expected across the eastern Great Basin Saturday afternoon. The primary upper-level low, currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast, is forecast to shift east into the northern Great Basin through late Saturday. As this occurs, a belt of strong low to mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Basin ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Dry, windy conditions ahead of the front will promote widespread fire weather concerns over a region with ongoing active fires. ...Eastern Great Basin... Early-morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across much of the Southwest/Great Basin (overnight RH values remain in the single digits to low teens). Continued dry/windy conditions today will maintain this dry air mass through Saturday. A combination of very dry low-level conditions and abundant daytime heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing across the region, which will facilitate downward transport of 30-40 knot mid-level flow. Latest high-res ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds from southern NV/northern AZ northward into southern WY. With afternoon RH minimums in the single digits, critical conditions appear likely. Winds gusting up to 35-45 mph will support periods of extremely critical conditions. Winds are forecast to shift from southwesterly to northwesterly with the passage of the cold front during the late evening/overnight hours, but dry post-frontal conditions may support additional fire spread. ...CA Central Valley... Northerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph through the day within the Central Valley. Some degree of downslope warming will promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s by late afternoon. With dry grasses already in place, the dry/windy conditions will likely pose a fire weather concern. ...High Plains... West to southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 15-25 mph behind a surface trough/dryline draped along the High Plains. Most forecast guidance suggests that somewhat widespread elevated fire weather conditions will emerge within this regime from northeast NM into eastern CO, southeast WY, and adjacent portions of western SD, NE, and KS. Despite the potential for widespread dry/windy conditions, recent rainfall has mitigate fuel status for the time being and has promoted widespread green up of most grasses. Because of this highlights were withheld, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another day of widespread fire weather concerns is expected across the eastern Great Basin Saturday afternoon. The primary upper-level low, currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast, is forecast to shift east into the northern Great Basin through late Saturday. As this occurs, a belt of strong low to mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Basin ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Dry, windy conditions ahead of the front will promote widespread fire weather concerns over a region with ongoing active fires. ...Eastern Great Basin... Early-morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across much of the Southwest/Great Basin (overnight RH values remain in the single digits to low teens). Continued dry/windy conditions today will maintain this dry air mass through Saturday. A combination of very dry low-level conditions and abundant daytime heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing across the region, which will facilitate downward transport of 30-40 knot mid-level flow. Latest high-res ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds from southern NV/northern AZ northward into southern WY. With afternoon RH minimums in the single digits, critical conditions appear likely. Winds gusting up to 35-45 mph will support periods of extremely critical conditions. Winds are forecast to shift from southwesterly to northwesterly with the passage of the cold front during the late evening/overnight hours, but dry post-frontal conditions may support additional fire spread. ...CA Central Valley... Northerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph through the day within the Central Valley. Some degree of downslope warming will promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s by late afternoon. With dry grasses already in place, the dry/windy conditions will likely pose a fire weather concern. ...High Plains... West to southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 15-25 mph behind a surface trough/dryline draped along the High Plains. Most forecast guidance suggests that somewhat widespread elevated fire weather conditions will emerge within this regime from northeast NM into eastern CO, southeast WY, and adjacent portions of western SD, NE, and KS. Despite the potential for widespread dry/windy conditions, recent rainfall has mitigate fuel status for the time being and has promoted widespread green up of most grasses. Because of this highlights were withheld, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another day of widespread fire weather concerns is expected across the eastern Great Basin Saturday afternoon. The primary upper-level low, currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast, is forecast to shift east into the northern Great Basin through late Saturday. As this occurs, a belt of strong low to mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Basin ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Dry, windy conditions ahead of the front will promote widespread fire weather concerns over a region with ongoing active fires. ...Eastern Great Basin... Early-morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across much of the Southwest/Great Basin (overnight RH values remain in the single digits to low teens). Continued dry/windy conditions today will maintain this dry air mass through Saturday. A combination of very dry low-level conditions and abundant daytime heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing across the region, which will facilitate downward transport of 30-40 knot mid-level flow. Latest high-res ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds from southern NV/northern AZ northward into southern WY. With afternoon RH minimums in the single digits, critical conditions appear likely. Winds gusting up to 35-45 mph will support periods of extremely critical conditions. Winds are forecast to shift from southwesterly to northwesterly with the passage of the cold front during the late evening/overnight hours, but dry post-frontal conditions may support additional fire spread. ...CA Central Valley... Northerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph through the day within the Central Valley. Some degree of downslope warming will promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s by late afternoon. With dry grasses already in place, the dry/windy conditions will likely pose a fire weather concern. ...High Plains... West to southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 15-25 mph behind a surface trough/dryline draped along the High Plains. Most forecast guidance suggests that somewhat widespread elevated fire weather conditions will emerge within this regime from northeast NM into eastern CO, southeast WY, and adjacent portions of western SD, NE, and KS. Despite the potential for widespread dry/windy conditions, recent rainfall has mitigate fuel status for the time being and has promoted widespread green up of most grasses. Because of this highlights were withheld, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another day of widespread fire weather concerns is expected across the eastern Great Basin Saturday afternoon. The primary upper-level low, currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast, is forecast to shift east into the northern Great Basin through late Saturday. As this occurs, a belt of strong low to mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Basin ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Dry, windy conditions ahead of the front will promote widespread fire weather concerns over a region with ongoing active fires. ...Eastern Great Basin... Early-morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across much of the Southwest/Great Basin (overnight RH values remain in the single digits to low teens). Continued dry/windy conditions today will maintain this dry air mass through Saturday. A combination of very dry low-level conditions and abundant daytime heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing across the region, which will facilitate downward transport of 30-40 knot mid-level flow. Latest high-res ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds from southern NV/northern AZ northward into southern WY. With afternoon RH minimums in the single digits, critical conditions appear likely. Winds gusting up to 35-45 mph will support periods of extremely critical conditions. Winds are forecast to shift from southwesterly to northwesterly with the passage of the cold front during the late evening/overnight hours, but dry post-frontal conditions may support additional fire spread. ...CA Central Valley... Northerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph through the day within the Central Valley. Some degree of downslope warming will promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s by late afternoon. With dry grasses already in place, the dry/windy conditions will likely pose a fire weather concern. ...High Plains... West to southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 15-25 mph behind a surface trough/dryline draped along the High Plains. Most forecast guidance suggests that somewhat widespread elevated fire weather conditions will emerge within this regime from northeast NM into eastern CO, southeast WY, and adjacent portions of western SD, NE, and KS. Despite the potential for widespread dry/windy conditions, recent rainfall has mitigate fuel status for the time being and has promoted widespread green up of most grasses. Because of this highlights were withheld, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another day of widespread fire weather concerns is expected across the eastern Great Basin Saturday afternoon. The primary upper-level low, currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast, is forecast to shift east into the northern Great Basin through late Saturday. As this occurs, a belt of strong low to mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Basin ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Dry, windy conditions ahead of the front will promote widespread fire weather concerns over a region with ongoing active fires. ...Eastern Great Basin... Early-morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across much of the Southwest/Great Basin (overnight RH values remain in the single digits to low teens). Continued dry/windy conditions today will maintain this dry air mass through Saturday. A combination of very dry low-level conditions and abundant daytime heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing across the region, which will facilitate downward transport of 30-40 knot mid-level flow. Latest high-res ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds from southern NV/northern AZ northward into southern WY. With afternoon RH minimums in the single digits, critical conditions appear likely. Winds gusting up to 35-45 mph will support periods of extremely critical conditions. Winds are forecast to shift from southwesterly to northwesterly with the passage of the cold front during the late evening/overnight hours, but dry post-frontal conditions may support additional fire spread. ...CA Central Valley... Northerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph through the day within the Central Valley. Some degree of downslope warming will promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s by late afternoon. With dry grasses already in place, the dry/windy conditions will likely pose a fire weather concern. ...High Plains... West to southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 15-25 mph behind a surface trough/dryline draped along the High Plains. Most forecast guidance suggests that somewhat widespread elevated fire weather conditions will emerge within this regime from northeast NM into eastern CO, southeast WY, and adjacent portions of western SD, NE, and KS. Despite the potential for widespread dry/windy conditions, recent rainfall has mitigate fuel status for the time being and has promoted widespread green up of most grasses. Because of this highlights were withheld, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another day of widespread fire weather concerns is expected across the eastern Great Basin Saturday afternoon. The primary upper-level low, currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast, is forecast to shift east into the northern Great Basin through late Saturday. As this occurs, a belt of strong low to mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Basin ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Dry, windy conditions ahead of the front will promote widespread fire weather concerns over a region with ongoing active fires. ...Eastern Great Basin... Early-morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across much of the Southwest/Great Basin (overnight RH values remain in the single digits to low teens). Continued dry/windy conditions today will maintain this dry air mass through Saturday. A combination of very dry low-level conditions and abundant daytime heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing across the region, which will facilitate downward transport of 30-40 knot mid-level flow. Latest high-res ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds from southern NV/northern AZ northward into southern WY. With afternoon RH minimums in the single digits, critical conditions appear likely. Winds gusting up to 35-45 mph will support periods of extremely critical conditions. Winds are forecast to shift from southwesterly to northwesterly with the passage of the cold front during the late evening/overnight hours, but dry post-frontal conditions may support additional fire spread. ...CA Central Valley... Northerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph through the day within the Central Valley. Some degree of downslope warming will promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s by late afternoon. With dry grasses already in place, the dry/windy conditions will likely pose a fire weather concern. ...High Plains... West to southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 15-25 mph behind a surface trough/dryline draped along the High Plains. Most forecast guidance suggests that somewhat widespread elevated fire weather conditions will emerge within this regime from northeast NM into eastern CO, southeast WY, and adjacent portions of western SD, NE, and KS. Despite the potential for widespread dry/windy conditions, recent rainfall has mitigate fuel status for the time being and has promoted widespread green up of most grasses. Because of this highlights were withheld, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another day of widespread fire weather concerns is expected across the eastern Great Basin Saturday afternoon. The primary upper-level low, currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast, is forecast to shift east into the northern Great Basin through late Saturday. As this occurs, a belt of strong low to mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Basin ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Dry, windy conditions ahead of the front will promote widespread fire weather concerns over a region with ongoing active fires. ...Eastern Great Basin... Early-morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across much of the Southwest/Great Basin (overnight RH values remain in the single digits to low teens). Continued dry/windy conditions today will maintain this dry air mass through Saturday. A combination of very dry low-level conditions and abundant daytime heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing across the region, which will facilitate downward transport of 30-40 knot mid-level flow. Latest high-res ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds from southern NV/northern AZ northward into southern WY. With afternoon RH minimums in the single digits, critical conditions appear likely. Winds gusting up to 35-45 mph will support periods of extremely critical conditions. Winds are forecast to shift from southwesterly to northwesterly with the passage of the cold front during the late evening/overnight hours, but dry post-frontal conditions may support additional fire spread. ...CA Central Valley... Northerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph through the day within the Central Valley. Some degree of downslope warming will promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s by late afternoon. With dry grasses already in place, the dry/windy conditions will likely pose a fire weather concern. ...High Plains... West to southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 15-25 mph behind a surface trough/dryline draped along the High Plains. Most forecast guidance suggests that somewhat widespread elevated fire weather conditions will emerge within this regime from northeast NM into eastern CO, southeast WY, and adjacent portions of western SD, NE, and KS. Despite the potential for widespread dry/windy conditions, recent rainfall has mitigate fuel status for the time being and has promoted widespread green up of most grasses. Because of this highlights were withheld, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop on Sunday from parts of the central and northern Plains into the upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level ridge will amplify further across the eastern CONUS on Sunday with a weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northeast. A trough across the west will start to weaken and move into the northern Plains during the period. At the surface, troughing will extend along a frontal zone from northern Minnesota to the central High Plains on Sunday. ...Great Plains into the Upper Midwest... Very strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop across the central and northern Plains on Sunday. However, very warm low-mid level temperatures should keep the warm sector mostly capped for much of the day. Therefore, thunderstorm development should be mostly confined to the front. However, even along the frontal zone, storm coverage may be mostly isolated given that forcing from the mid-level trough may remain mostly northwest of the frontal zone. In addition, the strong mid-level flow is forecast to remain mostly post-frontal which may limit storm organization across Nebraska and South Dakota. Given the somewhat decoupled upper-level and low-level pattern, the severe storm threat is more conditional across eastern South Dakota, Nebraska, and southwest Minnesota with the higher probability storm threat across eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota where cooler temperatures aloft, stronger shear, and stronger forcing should be present. Severe wind gusts would be the most likely threat from this activity. ...Parts of the Northeast... Storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Northeast as a mid-level shortwave trough shifts southeast. These storms could be marginally severe with some damaging wind threat. In the wake of this convection, very strong to extreme instability is expected to build into the Northeast, but very warm lower tropospheric temperatures and building heights aloft should suppress additional afternoon thunderstorms. ..Bentley.. 06/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop on Sunday from parts of the central and northern Plains into the upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level ridge will amplify further across the eastern CONUS on Sunday with a weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northeast. A trough across the west will start to weaken and move into the northern Plains during the period. At the surface, troughing will extend along a frontal zone from northern Minnesota to the central High Plains on Sunday. ...Great Plains into the Upper Midwest... Very strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop across the central and northern Plains on Sunday. However, very warm low-mid level temperatures should keep the warm sector mostly capped for much of the day. Therefore, thunderstorm development should be mostly confined to the front. However, even along the frontal zone, storm coverage may be mostly isolated given that forcing from the mid-level trough may remain mostly northwest of the frontal zone. In addition, the strong mid-level flow is forecast to remain mostly post-frontal which may limit storm organization across Nebraska and South Dakota. Given the somewhat decoupled upper-level and low-level pattern, the severe storm threat is more conditional across eastern South Dakota, Nebraska, and southwest Minnesota with the higher probability storm threat across eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota where cooler temperatures aloft, stronger shear, and stronger forcing should be present. Severe wind gusts would be the most likely threat from this activity. ...Parts of the Northeast... Storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Northeast as a mid-level shortwave trough shifts southeast. These storms could be marginally severe with some damaging wind threat. In the wake of this convection, very strong to extreme instability is expected to build into the Northeast, but very warm lower tropospheric temperatures and building heights aloft should suppress additional afternoon thunderstorms. ..Bentley.. 06/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop on Sunday from parts of the central and northern Plains into the upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level ridge will amplify further across the eastern CONUS on Sunday with a weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northeast. A trough across the west will start to weaken and move into the northern Plains during the period. At the surface, troughing will extend along a frontal zone from northern Minnesota to the central High Plains on Sunday. ...Great Plains into the Upper Midwest... Very strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop across the central and northern Plains on Sunday. However, very warm low-mid level temperatures should keep the warm sector mostly capped for much of the day. Therefore, thunderstorm development should be mostly confined to the front. However, even along the frontal zone, storm coverage may be mostly isolated given that forcing from the mid-level trough may remain mostly northwest of the frontal zone. In addition, the strong mid-level flow is forecast to remain mostly post-frontal which may limit storm organization across Nebraska and South Dakota. Given the somewhat decoupled upper-level and low-level pattern, the severe storm threat is more conditional across eastern South Dakota, Nebraska, and southwest Minnesota with the higher probability storm threat across eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota where cooler temperatures aloft, stronger shear, and stronger forcing should be present. Severe wind gusts would be the most likely threat from this activity. ...Parts of the Northeast... Storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Northeast as a mid-level shortwave trough shifts southeast. These storms could be marginally severe with some damaging wind threat. In the wake of this convection, very strong to extreme instability is expected to build into the Northeast, but very warm lower tropospheric temperatures and building heights aloft should suppress additional afternoon thunderstorms. ..Bentley.. 06/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop on Sunday from parts of the central and northern Plains into the upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level ridge will amplify further across the eastern CONUS on Sunday with a weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northeast. A trough across the west will start to weaken and move into the northern Plains during the period. At the surface, troughing will extend along a frontal zone from northern Minnesota to the central High Plains on Sunday. ...Great Plains into the Upper Midwest... Very strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop across the central and northern Plains on Sunday. However, very warm low-mid level temperatures should keep the warm sector mostly capped for much of the day. Therefore, thunderstorm development should be mostly confined to the front. However, even along the frontal zone, storm coverage may be mostly isolated given that forcing from the mid-level trough may remain mostly northwest of the frontal zone. In addition, the strong mid-level flow is forecast to remain mostly post-frontal which may limit storm organization across Nebraska and South Dakota. Given the somewhat decoupled upper-level and low-level pattern, the severe storm threat is more conditional across eastern South Dakota, Nebraska, and southwest Minnesota with the higher probability storm threat across eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota where cooler temperatures aloft, stronger shear, and stronger forcing should be present. Severe wind gusts would be the most likely threat from this activity. ...Parts of the Northeast... Storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Northeast as a mid-level shortwave trough shifts southeast. These storms could be marginally severe with some damaging wind threat. In the wake of this convection, very strong to extreme instability is expected to build into the Northeast, but very warm lower tropospheric temperatures and building heights aloft should suppress additional afternoon thunderstorms. ..Bentley.. 06/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop on Sunday from parts of the central and northern Plains into the upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level ridge will amplify further across the eastern CONUS on Sunday with a weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northeast. A trough across the west will start to weaken and move into the northern Plains during the period. At the surface, troughing will extend along a frontal zone from northern Minnesota to the central High Plains on Sunday. ...Great Plains into the Upper Midwest... Very strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop across the central and northern Plains on Sunday. However, very warm low-mid level temperatures should keep the warm sector mostly capped for much of the day. Therefore, thunderstorm development should be mostly confined to the front. However, even along the frontal zone, storm coverage may be mostly isolated given that forcing from the mid-level trough may remain mostly northwest of the frontal zone. In addition, the strong mid-level flow is forecast to remain mostly post-frontal which may limit storm organization across Nebraska and South Dakota. Given the somewhat decoupled upper-level and low-level pattern, the severe storm threat is more conditional across eastern South Dakota, Nebraska, and southwest Minnesota with the higher probability storm threat across eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota where cooler temperatures aloft, stronger shear, and stronger forcing should be present. Severe wind gusts would be the most likely threat from this activity. ...Parts of the Northeast... Storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Northeast as a mid-level shortwave trough shifts southeast. These storms could be marginally severe with some damaging wind threat. In the wake of this convection, very strong to extreme instability is expected to build into the Northeast, but very warm lower tropospheric temperatures and building heights aloft should suppress additional afternoon thunderstorms. ..Bentley.. 06/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop on Sunday from parts of the central and northern Plains into the upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level ridge will amplify further across the eastern CONUS on Sunday with a weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northeast. A trough across the west will start to weaken and move into the northern Plains during the period. At the surface, troughing will extend along a frontal zone from northern Minnesota to the central High Plains on Sunday. ...Great Plains into the Upper Midwest... Very strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop across the central and northern Plains on Sunday. However, very warm low-mid level temperatures should keep the warm sector mostly capped for much of the day. Therefore, thunderstorm development should be mostly confined to the front. However, even along the frontal zone, storm coverage may be mostly isolated given that forcing from the mid-level trough may remain mostly northwest of the frontal zone. In addition, the strong mid-level flow is forecast to remain mostly post-frontal which may limit storm organization across Nebraska and South Dakota. Given the somewhat decoupled upper-level and low-level pattern, the severe storm threat is more conditional across eastern South Dakota, Nebraska, and southwest Minnesota with the higher probability storm threat across eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota where cooler temperatures aloft, stronger shear, and stronger forcing should be present. Severe wind gusts would be the most likely threat from this activity. ...Parts of the Northeast... Storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Northeast as a mid-level shortwave trough shifts southeast. These storms could be marginally severe with some damaging wind threat. In the wake of this convection, very strong to extreme instability is expected to build into the Northeast, but very warm lower tropospheric temperatures and building heights aloft should suppress additional afternoon thunderstorms. ..Bentley.. 06/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop on Sunday from parts of the central and northern Plains into the upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level ridge will amplify further across the eastern CONUS on Sunday with a weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northeast. A trough across the west will start to weaken and move into the northern Plains during the period. At the surface, troughing will extend along a frontal zone from northern Minnesota to the central High Plains on Sunday. ...Great Plains into the Upper Midwest... Very strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop across the central and northern Plains on Sunday. However, very warm low-mid level temperatures should keep the warm sector mostly capped for much of the day. Therefore, thunderstorm development should be mostly confined to the front. However, even along the frontal zone, storm coverage may be mostly isolated given that forcing from the mid-level trough may remain mostly northwest of the frontal zone. In addition, the strong mid-level flow is forecast to remain mostly post-frontal which may limit storm organization across Nebraska and South Dakota. Given the somewhat decoupled upper-level and low-level pattern, the severe storm threat is more conditional across eastern South Dakota, Nebraska, and southwest Minnesota with the higher probability storm threat across eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota where cooler temperatures aloft, stronger shear, and stronger forcing should be present. Severe wind gusts would be the most likely threat from this activity. ...Parts of the Northeast... Storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Northeast as a mid-level shortwave trough shifts southeast. These storms could be marginally severe with some damaging wind threat. In the wake of this convection, very strong to extreme instability is expected to build into the Northeast, but very warm lower tropospheric temperatures and building heights aloft should suppress additional afternoon thunderstorms. ..Bentley.. 06/20/2025 Read more