Severe Storms

WW 0448 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 448 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1386 ..MOORE..06/21/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 448 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-027-051-069-087-089-107-111-113-119-125-155-167-210240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER CLAY GRANT KITTSON MAHNOMEN MARSHALL NORMAN OTTER TAIL PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE TRAVERSE WILKIN NDC003-005-015-017-019-021-027-029-031-035-039-043-045-047-049- 051-055-063-067-069-071-073-077-081-083-091-093-095-097-099-103- 210240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES BENSON BURLEIGH CASS CAVALIER DICKEY EDDY EMMONS FOSTER GRAND FORKS GRIGGS KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCHENRY Read more

WW 0448 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 448 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1386 ..MOORE..06/21/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 448 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-027-051-069-087-089-107-111-113-119-125-155-167-210240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER CLAY GRANT KITTSON MAHNOMEN MARSHALL NORMAN OTTER TAIL PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE TRAVERSE WILKIN NDC003-005-015-017-019-021-027-029-031-035-039-043-045-047-049- 051-055-063-067-069-071-073-077-081-083-091-093-095-097-099-103- 210240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES BENSON BURLEIGH CASS CAVALIER DICKEY EDDY EMMONS FOSTER GRAND FORKS GRIGGS KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCHENRY Read more

WW 0448 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 448 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1386 ..MOORE..06/21/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 448 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-027-051-069-087-089-107-111-113-119-125-155-167-210240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER CLAY GRANT KITTSON MAHNOMEN MARSHALL NORMAN OTTER TAIL PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE TRAVERSE WILKIN NDC003-005-015-017-019-021-027-029-031-035-039-043-045-047-049- 051-055-063-067-069-071-073-077-081-083-091-093-095-097-099-103- 210240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES BENSON BURLEIGH CASS CAVALIER DICKEY EDDY EMMONS FOSTER GRAND FORKS GRIGGS KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCHENRY Read more

WW 447 SEVERE TSTM MT ND SD 202050Z - 210300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 447 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM MDT Fri Jun 20 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Montana Southwest North Dakota Northwest South Dakota * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop this afternoon over southeast Montana and track eastward through the early evening. Supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds appear to be the main concern. A tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Broadus MT to 85 miles northeast of Lemmon SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0816 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA... CORRECTED AREA MENTIONED IN FIRST SENTENCE OF THIRD PARAGRAPH OF DISCUSSION ...SUMMARY... A significant swath of severe winds is expected this evening and tonight from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough moving through the northern High Plains. Near the trough, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing across western North Dakota and far northwestern South Dakota. As these storms move eastward across the northern Plains this evening, a 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet will move northeastward through the Dakotas. Lift associated the left exit region of the jet, combined with a strongly unstable airmass over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota will be favorable for vigorous convective development. In response, the ongoing storms are expected to grow upscale into a fast-moving severe MCS. The MCS is forecast to track eastward across far northern South Dakota, North Dakota and north-central Minnesota this evening. At the surface, a 991 mb low will move northeastward across northern South Dakota this evening. A tongue of very moist air with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will move northward into southeastern North Dakota and central Minnesota this evening. Within this moist airmass, strong instability is analyzed by the RAP with MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. The ongoing line of severe storms will move into this strong instability, and gradually intensify over the next couple of hours. RAP forecast soundings along the expected track of the MCS in southeastern North Dakota this evening have moderate to strong deep-layer shear, long and looped hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates. This should be favorable for supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes. A strong tornado may occur. Supercell development will be most likely among cells that remain semi-discrete. However, a line is expected to become more organized, which will make severe wind gusts likely along its leading edge. Gusts above 80 mph will be possible ahead of the more intense parts of the line. A Derecho may develop across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. As the MCS moves into south-central North Dakota over the next few hours, some short-term model forecasts develop discrete cells further to the east near the moist axis in the vicinity of the ND-SD-MN triple point. These storms are forecast to quickly expand in coverage and move across northwest and north-central Minnesota, ahead of the approaching MCS. These storms will likely be supercellular, and be associated with large to very large hail, wind damage and possible tornadoes. A consolidation of the two areas of convection will likely take place late this evening, with the severe MCS continuing to track eastward across north-central Minnesota. A wind-damage swath is expected as far east as northern Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Wind gusts of 85 to 105 mph will be possible along parts of the MCS track. ...Southern Rockies/Central High Plains... Water vapor imagery shows southwest flow over much of the south-central U.S. A subtle shortwave trough appears to be located in the southern Rockies, where convection has increased in coverage over the last couple of hours. These storms will continue to move northeastward into the High Plains this evening. Forecast soundings from northeast New Mexico into northwest Kansas early this evening have very steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This will likely support a marginal threat for severe gusts, as the cells move into the stronger instability over the High Plains. ..Broyles.. 06/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0816 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA... CORRECTED AREA MENTIONED IN FIRST SENTENCE OF THIRD PARAGRAPH OF DISCUSSION ...SUMMARY... A significant swath of severe winds is expected this evening and tonight from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough moving through the northern High Plains. Near the trough, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing across western North Dakota and far northwestern South Dakota. As these storms move eastward across the northern Plains this evening, a 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet will move northeastward through the Dakotas. Lift associated the left exit region of the jet, combined with a strongly unstable airmass over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota will be favorable for vigorous convective development. In response, the ongoing storms are expected to grow upscale into a fast-moving severe MCS. The MCS is forecast to track eastward across far northern South Dakota, North Dakota and north-central Minnesota this evening. At the surface, a 991 mb low will move northeastward across northern South Dakota this evening. A tongue of very moist air with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will move northward into southeastern North Dakota and central Minnesota this evening. Within this moist airmass, strong instability is analyzed by the RAP with MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. The ongoing line of severe storms will move into this strong instability, and gradually intensify over the next couple of hours. RAP forecast soundings along the expected track of the MCS in southeastern North Dakota this evening have moderate to strong deep-layer shear, long and looped hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates. This should be favorable for supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes. A strong tornado may occur. Supercell development will be most likely among cells that remain semi-discrete. However, a line is expected to become more organized, which will make severe wind gusts likely along its leading edge. Gusts above 80 mph will be possible ahead of the more intense parts of the line. A Derecho may develop across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. As the MCS moves into south-central North Dakota over the next few hours, some short-term model forecasts develop discrete cells further to the east near the moist axis in the vicinity of the ND-SD-MN triple point. These storms are forecast to quickly expand in coverage and move across northwest and north-central Minnesota, ahead of the approaching MCS. These storms will likely be supercellular, and be associated with large to very large hail, wind damage and possible tornadoes. A consolidation of the two areas of convection will likely take place late this evening, with the severe MCS continuing to track eastward across north-central Minnesota. A wind-damage swath is expected as far east as northern Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Wind gusts of 85 to 105 mph will be possible along parts of the MCS track. ...Southern Rockies/Central High Plains... Water vapor imagery shows southwest flow over much of the south-central U.S. A subtle shortwave trough appears to be located in the southern Rockies, where convection has increased in coverage over the last couple of hours. These storms will continue to move northeastward into the High Plains this evening. Forecast soundings from northeast New Mexico into northwest Kansas early this evening have very steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This will likely support a marginal threat for severe gusts, as the cells move into the stronger instability over the High Plains. ..Broyles.. 06/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0816 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA... CORRECTED AREA MENTIONED IN FIRST SENTENCE OF THIRD PARAGRAPH OF DISCUSSION ...SUMMARY... A significant swath of severe winds is expected this evening and tonight from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough moving through the northern High Plains. Near the trough, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing across western North Dakota and far northwestern South Dakota. As these storms move eastward across the northern Plains this evening, a 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet will move northeastward through the Dakotas. Lift associated the left exit region of the jet, combined with a strongly unstable airmass over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota will be favorable for vigorous convective development. In response, the ongoing storms are expected to grow upscale into a fast-moving severe MCS. The MCS is forecast to track eastward across far northern South Dakota, North Dakota and north-central Minnesota this evening. At the surface, a 991 mb low will move northeastward across northern South Dakota this evening. A tongue of very moist air with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will move northward into southeastern North Dakota and central Minnesota this evening. Within this moist airmass, strong instability is analyzed by the RAP with MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. The ongoing line of severe storms will move into this strong instability, and gradually intensify over the next couple of hours. RAP forecast soundings along the expected track of the MCS in southeastern North Dakota this evening have moderate to strong deep-layer shear, long and looped hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates. This should be favorable for supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes. A strong tornado may occur. Supercell development will be most likely among cells that remain semi-discrete. However, a line is expected to become more organized, which will make severe wind gusts likely along its leading edge. Gusts above 80 mph will be possible ahead of the more intense parts of the line. A Derecho may develop across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. As the MCS moves into south-central North Dakota over the next few hours, some short-term model forecasts develop discrete cells further to the east near the moist axis in the vicinity of the ND-SD-MN triple point. These storms are forecast to quickly expand in coverage and move across northwest and north-central Minnesota, ahead of the approaching MCS. These storms will likely be supercellular, and be associated with large to very large hail, wind damage and possible tornadoes. A consolidation of the two areas of convection will likely take place late this evening, with the severe MCS continuing to track eastward across north-central Minnesota. A wind-damage swath is expected as far east as northern Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Wind gusts of 85 to 105 mph will be possible along parts of the MCS track. ...Southern Rockies/Central High Plains... Water vapor imagery shows southwest flow over much of the south-central U.S. A subtle shortwave trough appears to be located in the southern Rockies, where convection has increased in coverage over the last couple of hours. These storms will continue to move northeastward into the High Plains this evening. Forecast soundings from northeast New Mexico into northwest Kansas early this evening have very steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This will likely support a marginal threat for severe gusts, as the cells move into the stronger instability over the High Plains. ..Broyles.. 06/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0816 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA... CORRECTED AREA MENTIONED IN FIRST SENTENCE OF THIRD PARAGRAPH OF DISCUSSION ...SUMMARY... A significant swath of severe winds is expected this evening and tonight from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough moving through the northern High Plains. Near the trough, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing across western North Dakota and far northwestern South Dakota. As these storms move eastward across the northern Plains this evening, a 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet will move northeastward through the Dakotas. Lift associated the left exit region of the jet, combined with a strongly unstable airmass over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota will be favorable for vigorous convective development. In response, the ongoing storms are expected to grow upscale into a fast-moving severe MCS. The MCS is forecast to track eastward across far northern South Dakota, North Dakota and north-central Minnesota this evening. At the surface, a 991 mb low will move northeastward across northern South Dakota this evening. A tongue of very moist air with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will move northward into southeastern North Dakota and central Minnesota this evening. Within this moist airmass, strong instability is analyzed by the RAP with MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. The ongoing line of severe storms will move into this strong instability, and gradually intensify over the next couple of hours. RAP forecast soundings along the expected track of the MCS in southeastern North Dakota this evening have moderate to strong deep-layer shear, long and looped hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates. This should be favorable for supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes. A strong tornado may occur. Supercell development will be most likely among cells that remain semi-discrete. However, a line is expected to become more organized, which will make severe wind gusts likely along its leading edge. Gusts above 80 mph will be possible ahead of the more intense parts of the line. A Derecho may develop across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. As the MCS moves into south-central North Dakota over the next few hours, some short-term model forecasts develop discrete cells further to the east near the moist axis in the vicinity of the ND-SD-MN triple point. These storms are forecast to quickly expand in coverage and move across northwest and north-central Minnesota, ahead of the approaching MCS. These storms will likely be supercellular, and be associated with large to very large hail, wind damage and possible tornadoes. A consolidation of the two areas of convection will likely take place late this evening, with the severe MCS continuing to track eastward across north-central Minnesota. A wind-damage swath is expected as far east as northern Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Wind gusts of 85 to 105 mph will be possible along parts of the MCS track. ...Southern Rockies/Central High Plains... Water vapor imagery shows southwest flow over much of the south-central U.S. A subtle shortwave trough appears to be located in the southern Rockies, where convection has increased in coverage over the last couple of hours. These storms will continue to move northeastward into the High Plains this evening. Forecast soundings from northeast New Mexico into northwest Kansas early this evening have very steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This will likely support a marginal threat for severe gusts, as the cells move into the stronger instability over the High Plains. ..Broyles.. 06/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0816 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA... CORRECTED AREA MENTIONED IN FIRST SENTENCE OF THIRD PARAGRAPH OF DISCUSSION ...SUMMARY... A significant swath of severe winds is expected this evening and tonight from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough moving through the northern High Plains. Near the trough, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing across western North Dakota and far northwestern South Dakota. As these storms move eastward across the northern Plains this evening, a 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet will move northeastward through the Dakotas. Lift associated the left exit region of the jet, combined with a strongly unstable airmass over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota will be favorable for vigorous convective development. In response, the ongoing storms are expected to grow upscale into a fast-moving severe MCS. The MCS is forecast to track eastward across far northern South Dakota, North Dakota and north-central Minnesota this evening. At the surface, a 991 mb low will move northeastward across northern South Dakota this evening. A tongue of very moist air with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will move northward into southeastern North Dakota and central Minnesota this evening. Within this moist airmass, strong instability is analyzed by the RAP with MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. The ongoing line of severe storms will move into this strong instability, and gradually intensify over the next couple of hours. RAP forecast soundings along the expected track of the MCS in southeastern North Dakota this evening have moderate to strong deep-layer shear, long and looped hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates. This should be favorable for supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes. A strong tornado may occur. Supercell development will be most likely among cells that remain semi-discrete. However, a line is expected to become more organized, which will make severe wind gusts likely along its leading edge. Gusts above 80 mph will be possible ahead of the more intense parts of the line. A Derecho may develop across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. As the MCS moves into south-central North Dakota over the next few hours, some short-term model forecasts develop discrete cells further to the east near the moist axis in the vicinity of the ND-SD-MN triple point. These storms are forecast to quickly expand in coverage and move across northwest and north-central Minnesota, ahead of the approaching MCS. These storms will likely be supercellular, and be associated with large to very large hail, wind damage and possible tornadoes. A consolidation of the two areas of convection will likely take place late this evening, with the severe MCS continuing to track eastward across north-central Minnesota. A wind-damage swath is expected as far east as northern Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Wind gusts of 85 to 105 mph will be possible along parts of the MCS track. ...Southern Rockies/Central High Plains... Water vapor imagery shows southwest flow over much of the south-central U.S. A subtle shortwave trough appears to be located in the southern Rockies, where convection has increased in coverage over the last couple of hours. These storms will continue to move northeastward into the High Plains this evening. Forecast soundings from northeast New Mexico into northwest Kansas early this evening have very steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This will likely support a marginal threat for severe gusts, as the cells move into the stronger instability over the High Plains. ..Broyles.. 06/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0816 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA... CORRECTED AREA MENTIONED IN FIRST SENTENCE OF THIRD PARAGRAPH OF DISCUSSION ...SUMMARY... A significant swath of severe winds is expected this evening and tonight from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough moving through the northern High Plains. Near the trough, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing across western North Dakota and far northwestern South Dakota. As these storms move eastward across the northern Plains this evening, a 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet will move northeastward through the Dakotas. Lift associated the left exit region of the jet, combined with a strongly unstable airmass over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota will be favorable for vigorous convective development. In response, the ongoing storms are expected to grow upscale into a fast-moving severe MCS. The MCS is forecast to track eastward across far northern South Dakota, North Dakota and north-central Minnesota this evening. At the surface, a 991 mb low will move northeastward across northern South Dakota this evening. A tongue of very moist air with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will move northward into southeastern North Dakota and central Minnesota this evening. Within this moist airmass, strong instability is analyzed by the RAP with MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. The ongoing line of severe storms will move into this strong instability, and gradually intensify over the next couple of hours. RAP forecast soundings along the expected track of the MCS in southeastern North Dakota this evening have moderate to strong deep-layer shear, long and looped hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates. This should be favorable for supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes. A strong tornado may occur. Supercell development will be most likely among cells that remain semi-discrete. However, a line is expected to become more organized, which will make severe wind gusts likely along its leading edge. Gusts above 80 mph will be possible ahead of the more intense parts of the line. A Derecho may develop across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. As the MCS moves into south-central North Dakota over the next few hours, some short-term model forecasts develop discrete cells further to the east near the moist axis in the vicinity of the ND-SD-MN triple point. These storms are forecast to quickly expand in coverage and move across northwest and north-central Minnesota, ahead of the approaching MCS. These storms will likely be supercellular, and be associated with large to very large hail, wind damage and possible tornadoes. A consolidation of the two areas of convection will likely take place late this evening, with the severe MCS continuing to track eastward across north-central Minnesota. A wind-damage swath is expected as far east as northern Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Wind gusts of 85 to 105 mph will be possible along parts of the MCS track. ...Southern Rockies/Central High Plains... Water vapor imagery shows southwest flow over much of the south-central U.S. A subtle shortwave trough appears to be located in the southern Rockies, where convection has increased in coverage over the last couple of hours. These storms will continue to move northeastward into the High Plains this evening. Forecast soundings from northeast New Mexico into northwest Kansas early this evening have very steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This will likely support a marginal threat for severe gusts, as the cells move into the stronger instability over the High Plains. ..Broyles.. 06/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0816 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA... CORRECTED AREA MENTIONED IN FIRST SENTENCE OF THIRD PARAGRAPH OF DISCUSSION ...SUMMARY... A significant swath of severe winds is expected this evening and tonight from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough moving through the northern High Plains. Near the trough, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing across western North Dakota and far northwestern South Dakota. As these storms move eastward across the northern Plains this evening, a 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet will move northeastward through the Dakotas. Lift associated the left exit region of the jet, combined with a strongly unstable airmass over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota will be favorable for vigorous convective development. In response, the ongoing storms are expected to grow upscale into a fast-moving severe MCS. The MCS is forecast to track eastward across far northern South Dakota, North Dakota and north-central Minnesota this evening. At the surface, a 991 mb low will move northeastward across northern South Dakota this evening. A tongue of very moist air with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will move northward into southeastern North Dakota and central Minnesota this evening. Within this moist airmass, strong instability is analyzed by the RAP with MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. The ongoing line of severe storms will move into this strong instability, and gradually intensify over the next couple of hours. RAP forecast soundings along the expected track of the MCS in southeastern North Dakota this evening have moderate to strong deep-layer shear, long and looped hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates. This should be favorable for supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes. A strong tornado may occur. Supercell development will be most likely among cells that remain semi-discrete. However, a line is expected to become more organized, which will make severe wind gusts likely along its leading edge. Gusts above 80 mph will be possible ahead of the more intense parts of the line. A Derecho may develop across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. As the MCS moves into south-central North Dakota over the next few hours, some short-term model forecasts develop discrete cells further to the east near the moist axis in the vicinity of the ND-SD-MN triple point. These storms are forecast to quickly expand in coverage and move across northwest and north-central Minnesota, ahead of the approaching MCS. These storms will likely be supercellular, and be associated with large to very large hail, wind damage and possible tornadoes. A consolidation of the two areas of convection will likely take place late this evening, with the severe MCS continuing to track eastward across north-central Minnesota. A wind-damage swath is expected as far east as northern Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Wind gusts of 85 to 105 mph will be possible along parts of the MCS track. ...Southern Rockies/Central High Plains... Water vapor imagery shows southwest flow over much of the south-central U.S. A subtle shortwave trough appears to be located in the southern Rockies, where convection has increased in coverage over the last couple of hours. These storms will continue to move northeastward into the High Plains this evening. Forecast soundings from northeast New Mexico into northwest Kansas early this evening have very steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This will likely support a marginal threat for severe gusts, as the cells move into the stronger instability over the High Plains. ..Broyles.. 06/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0816 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA... CORRECTED AREA MENTIONED IN FIRST SENTENCE OF THIRD PARAGRAPH OF DISCUSSION ...SUMMARY... A significant swath of severe winds is expected this evening and tonight from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough moving through the northern High Plains. Near the trough, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing across western North Dakota and far northwestern South Dakota. As these storms move eastward across the northern Plains this evening, a 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet will move northeastward through the Dakotas. Lift associated the left exit region of the jet, combined with a strongly unstable airmass over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota will be favorable for vigorous convective development. In response, the ongoing storms are expected to grow upscale into a fast-moving severe MCS. The MCS is forecast to track eastward across far northern South Dakota, North Dakota and north-central Minnesota this evening. At the surface, a 991 mb low will move northeastward across northern South Dakota this evening. A tongue of very moist air with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will move northward into southeastern North Dakota and central Minnesota this evening. Within this moist airmass, strong instability is analyzed by the RAP with MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. The ongoing line of severe storms will move into this strong instability, and gradually intensify over the next couple of hours. RAP forecast soundings along the expected track of the MCS in southeastern North Dakota this evening have moderate to strong deep-layer shear, long and looped hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates. This should be favorable for supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes. A strong tornado may occur. Supercell development will be most likely among cells that remain semi-discrete. However, a line is expected to become more organized, which will make severe wind gusts likely along its leading edge. Gusts above 80 mph will be possible ahead of the more intense parts of the line. A Derecho may develop across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. As the MCS moves into south-central North Dakota over the next few hours, some short-term model forecasts develop discrete cells further to the east near the moist axis in the vicinity of the ND-SD-MN triple point. These storms are forecast to quickly expand in coverage and move across northwest and north-central Minnesota, ahead of the approaching MCS. These storms will likely be supercellular, and be associated with large to very large hail, wind damage and possible tornadoes. A consolidation of the two areas of convection will likely take place late this evening, with the severe MCS continuing to track eastward across north-central Minnesota. A wind-damage swath is expected as far east as northern Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Wind gusts of 85 to 105 mph will be possible along parts of the MCS track. ...Southern Rockies/Central High Plains... Water vapor imagery shows southwest flow over much of the south-central U.S. A subtle shortwave trough appears to be located in the southern Rockies, where convection has increased in coverage over the last couple of hours. These storms will continue to move northeastward into the High Plains this evening. Forecast soundings from northeast New Mexico into northwest Kansas early this evening have very steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This will likely support a marginal threat for severe gusts, as the cells move into the stronger instability over the High Plains. ..Broyles.. 06/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0816 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA... CORRECTED AREA MENTIONED IN FIRST SENTENCE OF THIRD PARAGRAPH OF DISCUSSION ...SUMMARY... A significant swath of severe winds is expected this evening and tonight from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough moving through the northern High Plains. Near the trough, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing across western North Dakota and far northwestern South Dakota. As these storms move eastward across the northern Plains this evening, a 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet will move northeastward through the Dakotas. Lift associated the left exit region of the jet, combined with a strongly unstable airmass over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota will be favorable for vigorous convective development. In response, the ongoing storms are expected to grow upscale into a fast-moving severe MCS. The MCS is forecast to track eastward across far northern South Dakota, North Dakota and north-central Minnesota this evening. At the surface, a 991 mb low will move northeastward across northern South Dakota this evening. A tongue of very moist air with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will move northward into southeastern North Dakota and central Minnesota this evening. Within this moist airmass, strong instability is analyzed by the RAP with MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. The ongoing line of severe storms will move into this strong instability, and gradually intensify over the next couple of hours. RAP forecast soundings along the expected track of the MCS in southeastern North Dakota this evening have moderate to strong deep-layer shear, long and looped hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates. This should be favorable for supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes. A strong tornado may occur. Supercell development will be most likely among cells that remain semi-discrete. However, a line is expected to become more organized, which will make severe wind gusts likely along its leading edge. Gusts above 80 mph will be possible ahead of the more intense parts of the line. A Derecho may develop across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. As the MCS moves into south-central North Dakota over the next few hours, some short-term model forecasts develop discrete cells further to the east near the moist axis in the vicinity of the ND-SD-MN triple point. These storms are forecast to quickly expand in coverage and move across northwest and north-central Minnesota, ahead of the approaching MCS. These storms will likely be supercellular, and be associated with large to very large hail, wind damage and possible tornadoes. A consolidation of the two areas of convection will likely take place late this evening, with the severe MCS continuing to track eastward across north-central Minnesota. A wind-damage swath is expected as far east as northern Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Wind gusts of 85 to 105 mph will be possible along parts of the MCS track. ...Southern Rockies/Central High Plains... Water vapor imagery shows southwest flow over much of the south-central U.S. A subtle shortwave trough appears to be located in the southern Rockies, where convection has increased in coverage over the last couple of hours. These storms will continue to move northeastward into the High Plains this evening. Forecast soundings from northeast New Mexico into northwest Kansas early this evening have very steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This will likely support a marginal threat for severe gusts, as the cells move into the stronger instability over the High Plains. ..Broyles.. 06/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0816 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA... CORRECTED AREA MENTIONED IN FIRST SENTENCE OF THIRD PARAGRAPH OF DISCUSSION ...SUMMARY... A significant swath of severe winds is expected this evening and tonight from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough moving through the northern High Plains. Near the trough, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing across western North Dakota and far northwestern South Dakota. As these storms move eastward across the northern Plains this evening, a 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet will move northeastward through the Dakotas. Lift associated the left exit region of the jet, combined with a strongly unstable airmass over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota will be favorable for vigorous convective development. In response, the ongoing storms are expected to grow upscale into a fast-moving severe MCS. The MCS is forecast to track eastward across far northern South Dakota, North Dakota and north-central Minnesota this evening. At the surface, a 991 mb low will move northeastward across northern South Dakota this evening. A tongue of very moist air with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will move northward into southeastern North Dakota and central Minnesota this evening. Within this moist airmass, strong instability is analyzed by the RAP with MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. The ongoing line of severe storms will move into this strong instability, and gradually intensify over the next couple of hours. RAP forecast soundings along the expected track of the MCS in southeastern North Dakota this evening have moderate to strong deep-layer shear, long and looped hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates. This should be favorable for supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes. A strong tornado may occur. Supercell development will be most likely among cells that remain semi-discrete. However, a line is expected to become more organized, which will make severe wind gusts likely along its leading edge. Gusts above 80 mph will be possible ahead of the more intense parts of the line. A Derecho may develop across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. As the MCS moves into south-central North Dakota over the next few hours, some short-term model forecasts develop discrete cells further to the east near the moist axis in the vicinity of the ND-SD-MN triple point. These storms are forecast to quickly expand in coverage and move across northwest and north-central Minnesota, ahead of the approaching MCS. These storms will likely be supercellular, and be associated with large to very large hail, wind damage and possible tornadoes. A consolidation of the two areas of convection will likely take place late this evening, with the severe MCS continuing to track eastward across north-central Minnesota. A wind-damage swath is expected as far east as northern Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Wind gusts of 85 to 105 mph will be possible along parts of the MCS track. ...Southern Rockies/Central High Plains... Water vapor imagery shows southwest flow over much of the south-central U.S. A subtle shortwave trough appears to be located in the southern Rockies, where convection has increased in coverage over the last couple of hours. These storms will continue to move northeastward into the High Plains this evening. Forecast soundings from northeast New Mexico into northwest Kansas early this evening have very steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This will likely support a marginal threat for severe gusts, as the cells move into the stronger instability over the High Plains. ..Broyles.. 06/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0816 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA... CORRECTED AREA MENTIONED IN FIRST SENTENCE OF THIRD PARAGRAPH OF DISCUSSION ...SUMMARY... A significant swath of severe winds is expected this evening and tonight from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough moving through the northern High Plains. Near the trough, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing across western North Dakota and far northwestern South Dakota. As these storms move eastward across the northern Plains this evening, a 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet will move northeastward through the Dakotas. Lift associated the left exit region of the jet, combined with a strongly unstable airmass over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota will be favorable for vigorous convective development. In response, the ongoing storms are expected to grow upscale into a fast-moving severe MCS. The MCS is forecast to track eastward across far northern South Dakota, North Dakota and north-central Minnesota this evening. At the surface, a 991 mb low will move northeastward across northern South Dakota this evening. A tongue of very moist air with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will move northward into southeastern North Dakota and central Minnesota this evening. Within this moist airmass, strong instability is analyzed by the RAP with MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. The ongoing line of severe storms will move into this strong instability, and gradually intensify over the next couple of hours. RAP forecast soundings along the expected track of the MCS in southeastern North Dakota this evening have moderate to strong deep-layer shear, long and looped hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates. This should be favorable for supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes. A strong tornado may occur. Supercell development will be most likely among cells that remain semi-discrete. However, a line is expected to become more organized, which will make severe wind gusts likely along its leading edge. Gusts above 80 mph will be possible ahead of the more intense parts of the line. A Derecho may develop across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. As the MCS moves into south-central North Dakota over the next few hours, some short-term model forecasts develop discrete cells further to the east near the moist axis in the vicinity of the ND-SD-MN triple point. These storms are forecast to quickly expand in coverage and move across northwest and north-central Minnesota, ahead of the approaching MCS. These storms will likely be supercellular, and be associated with large to very large hail, wind damage and possible tornadoes. A consolidation of the two areas of convection will likely take place late this evening, with the severe MCS continuing to track eastward across north-central Minnesota. A wind-damage swath is expected as far east as northern Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Wind gusts of 85 to 105 mph will be possible along parts of the MCS track. ...Southern Rockies/Central High Plains... Water vapor imagery shows southwest flow over much of the south-central U.S. A subtle shortwave trough appears to be located in the southern Rockies, where convection has increased in coverage over the last couple of hours. These storms will continue to move northeastward into the High Plains this evening. Forecast soundings from northeast New Mexico into northwest Kansas early this evening have very steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This will likely support a marginal threat for severe gusts, as the cells move into the stronger instability over the High Plains. ..Broyles.. 06/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0816 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA... CORRECTED AREA MENTIONED IN FIRST SENTENCE OF THIRD PARAGRAPH OF DISCUSSION ...SUMMARY... A significant swath of severe winds is expected this evening and tonight from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough moving through the northern High Plains. Near the trough, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing across western North Dakota and far northwestern South Dakota. As these storms move eastward across the northern Plains this evening, a 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet will move northeastward through the Dakotas. Lift associated the left exit region of the jet, combined with a strongly unstable airmass over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota will be favorable for vigorous convective development. In response, the ongoing storms are expected to grow upscale into a fast-moving severe MCS. The MCS is forecast to track eastward across far northern South Dakota, North Dakota and north-central Minnesota this evening. At the surface, a 991 mb low will move northeastward across northern South Dakota this evening. A tongue of very moist air with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will move northward into southeastern North Dakota and central Minnesota this evening. Within this moist airmass, strong instability is analyzed by the RAP with MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. The ongoing line of severe storms will move into this strong instability, and gradually intensify over the next couple of hours. RAP forecast soundings along the expected track of the MCS in southeastern North Dakota this evening have moderate to strong deep-layer shear, long and looped hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates. This should be favorable for supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes. A strong tornado may occur. Supercell development will be most likely among cells that remain semi-discrete. However, a line is expected to become more organized, which will make severe wind gusts likely along its leading edge. Gusts above 80 mph will be possible ahead of the more intense parts of the line. A Derecho may develop across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. As the MCS moves into south-central North Dakota over the next few hours, some short-term model forecasts develop discrete cells further to the east near the moist axis in the vicinity of the ND-SD-MN triple point. These storms are forecast to quickly expand in coverage and move across northwest and north-central Minnesota, ahead of the approaching MCS. These storms will likely be supercellular, and be associated with large to very large hail, wind damage and possible tornadoes. A consolidation of the two areas of convection will likely take place late this evening, with the severe MCS continuing to track eastward across north-central Minnesota. A wind-damage swath is expected as far east as northern Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Wind gusts of 85 to 105 mph will be possible along parts of the MCS track. ...Southern Rockies/Central High Plains... Water vapor imagery shows southwest flow over much of the south-central U.S. A subtle shortwave trough appears to be located in the southern Rockies, where convection has increased in coverage over the last couple of hours. These storms will continue to move northeastward into the High Plains this evening. Forecast soundings from northeast New Mexico into northwest Kansas early this evening have very steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This will likely support a marginal threat for severe gusts, as the cells move into the stronger instability over the High Plains. ..Broyles.. 06/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0816 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA... CORRECTED AREA MENTIONED IN FIRST SENTENCE OF THIRD PARAGRAPH OF DISCUSSION ...SUMMARY... A significant swath of severe winds is expected this evening and tonight from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough moving through the northern High Plains. Near the trough, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing across western North Dakota and far northwestern South Dakota. As these storms move eastward across the northern Plains this evening, a 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet will move northeastward through the Dakotas. Lift associated the left exit region of the jet, combined with a strongly unstable airmass over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota will be favorable for vigorous convective development. In response, the ongoing storms are expected to grow upscale into a fast-moving severe MCS. The MCS is forecast to track eastward across far northern South Dakota, North Dakota and north-central Minnesota this evening. At the surface, a 991 mb low will move northeastward across northern South Dakota this evening. A tongue of very moist air with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will move northward into southeastern North Dakota and central Minnesota this evening. Within this moist airmass, strong instability is analyzed by the RAP with MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. The ongoing line of severe storms will move into this strong instability, and gradually intensify over the next couple of hours. RAP forecast soundings along the expected track of the MCS in southeastern North Dakota this evening have moderate to strong deep-layer shear, long and looped hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates. This should be favorable for supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes. A strong tornado may occur. Supercell development will be most likely among cells that remain semi-discrete. However, a line is expected to become more organized, which will make severe wind gusts likely along its leading edge. Gusts above 80 mph will be possible ahead of the more intense parts of the line. A Derecho may develop across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. As the MCS moves into south-central North Dakota over the next few hours, some short-term model forecasts develop discrete cells further to the east near the moist axis in the vicinity of the ND-SD-MN triple point. These storms are forecast to quickly expand in coverage and move across northwest and north-central Minnesota, ahead of the approaching MCS. These storms will likely be supercellular, and be associated with large to very large hail, wind damage and possible tornadoes. A consolidation of the two areas of convection will likely take place late this evening, with the severe MCS continuing to track eastward across north-central Minnesota. A wind-damage swath is expected as far east as northern Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Wind gusts of 85 to 105 mph will be possible along parts of the MCS track. ...Southern Rockies/Central High Plains... Water vapor imagery shows southwest flow over much of the south-central U.S. A subtle shortwave trough appears to be located in the southern Rockies, where convection has increased in coverage over the last couple of hours. These storms will continue to move northeastward into the High Plains this evening. Forecast soundings from northeast New Mexico into northwest Kansas early this evening have very steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This will likely support a marginal threat for severe gusts, as the cells move into the stronger instability over the High Plains. ..Broyles.. 06/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... A significant swath of severe winds is expected this evening and tonight from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough moving through the northern High Plains. Near the trough, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing across western North Dakota and far northwestern South Dakota. As these storms move eastward across the northern Plains this evening, a 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet will move northeastward through the Dakotas. Lift associated the left exit region of the jet, combined with a strongly unstable airmass over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota will be favorable for vigorous convective development. In response, the ongoing storms are expected to grow upscale into a fast-moving severe MCS. The MCS is forecast to track eastward across far northern South Dakota, North Dakota and north-central Minnesota this evening. At the surface, a 991 mb low will move northeastward across northern South Dakota this evening. A tongue of very moist air with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will move northward into southeastern North Dakota and central Minnesota this evening. Within this moist airmass, strong instability is analyzed by the RAP with MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. The ongoing line of severe storms will move into this strong instability, and gradually intensify over the next couple of hours. RAP forecast soundings along the expected track of the MCS in southeastern North Dakota this evening have moderate to strong deep-layer shear, long and looped hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates. This should be favorable for supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes. A strong tornado may occur. Supercell development will be most likely among cells that remain semi-discrete. However, a line is expected to become more organized, which will make severe wind gusts likely along its leading edge. Gusts above 80 mph will be possible ahead of the more intense parts of the line. A Derecho may develop across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. As the MCS moves into central South Dakota over the next few hours, some short-term model forecasts develop discrete cells further to the east near the moist axis in the vicinity of the ND-SD-MN triple point. These storms are forecast to quickly expand in coverage and move across northwest and north-central Minnesota, ahead of the approaching MCS. These storms will likely be supercellular, and be associated with large to very large hail, wind damage and possible tornadoes. A consolidation of the two areas of convection will likely take place late this evening, with the severe MCS continuing to track eastward across north-central Minnesota. A wind-damage swath is expected as far east as northern Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Wind gusts of 85 to 105 mph will be possible along parts of the MCS track. ...Southern Rockies/Central High Plains... Water vapor imagery shows southwest flow over much of the south-central U.S. A subtle shortwave trough appears to be located in the southern Rockies, where convection has increased in coverage over the last couple of hours. These storms will continue to move northeastward into the High Plains this evening. Forecast soundings from northeast New Mexico into northwest Kansas early this evening have very steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This will likely support a marginal threat for severe gusts, as the cells move into the stronger instability over the High Plains. ..Broyles.. 06/21/2025 Read more

WW 0448 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0448 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0447 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 447 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE 2WX TO 35 NNE 2WX TO 45 N DIK. ..SQUITIERI..06/21/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 447 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-025-037-041-057-059-065-085-089-210140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS DUNN GRANT HETTINGER MERCER MORTON OLIVER SIOUX STARK SDC031-063-105-210140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CORSON HARDING PERKINS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more