Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms may develop Monday from parts of the Great Lakes into the central Plains. ...Synopsis... Little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Monday, with a persistent upper trough over the western CONUS, and an amplified upper ridge covering much of the East. A shortwave ejecting from the western trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward toward Hudson Bay by Monday evening. In the wake of this feature, guidance generally depicts only low-amplitude vorticity maxima moving around the periphery of the ridge from the central/southern Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a front is forecast to be draped from the central Plains into the Great Lakes. The northeast portion of this front may continue to move eastward through the day, as a surface low moves across Ontario. To the southwest, the front may stall or begin to move northward as a warm front, as a weak surface wave persists over the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Potential for extensive convection on D2/Sunday creates some uncertainty regarding frontal position on Monday. Locally strong storms may be ongoing Monday morning, with a general increase in storm coverage expected during the afternoon where strong heating is realized in the vicinity of the front. Stronger deep-layer flow will again be displaced to the cool side of the front, but 30-40 kt of midlevel flow overlapping moderate to strong buoyancy will support some potential for organized storms. Mostly unidirectional southwesterly flow could support one or more forward-propagating clusters, with a threat of damaging wind and isolated hail. ...Central Plains vicinity... Deep-layer flow/shear will be somewhat weaker across parts of the central Plains, compared to areas farther northeast. However, strong heating will result in development of moderate to locally strong instability. Scattered storm development is expected within a weakly capped environment, and a few modestly organized cells/clusters could evolve with time, posing a threat for strong to severe gusts and isolated hail. Some westward moisture transport will be possible into parts of the central High Plains and Front Range, within a post-frontal regime. Isolated storms may develop within this regime, though generally modest midlevel lapse rates may tend to limit robust destabilization. ...Northern New England... Strong to extreme instability will again reside across parts of the Northeast and New England Monday afternoon, along the northern periphery of the upper ridge. However, the influence of the upper ridge is still expected to limit storm potential through the day. This region will continue to be monitored for the possibility that storms developing across Quebec may affect parts of northern New England, though this scenario is too uncertain for severe probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 06/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms may develop Monday from parts of the Great Lakes into the central Plains. ...Synopsis... Little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Monday, with a persistent upper trough over the western CONUS, and an amplified upper ridge covering much of the East. A shortwave ejecting from the western trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward toward Hudson Bay by Monday evening. In the wake of this feature, guidance generally depicts only low-amplitude vorticity maxima moving around the periphery of the ridge from the central/southern Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a front is forecast to be draped from the central Plains into the Great Lakes. The northeast portion of this front may continue to move eastward through the day, as a surface low moves across Ontario. To the southwest, the front may stall or begin to move northward as a warm front, as a weak surface wave persists over the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Potential for extensive convection on D2/Sunday creates some uncertainty regarding frontal position on Monday. Locally strong storms may be ongoing Monday morning, with a general increase in storm coverage expected during the afternoon where strong heating is realized in the vicinity of the front. Stronger deep-layer flow will again be displaced to the cool side of the front, but 30-40 kt of midlevel flow overlapping moderate to strong buoyancy will support some potential for organized storms. Mostly unidirectional southwesterly flow could support one or more forward-propagating clusters, with a threat of damaging wind and isolated hail. ...Central Plains vicinity... Deep-layer flow/shear will be somewhat weaker across parts of the central Plains, compared to areas farther northeast. However, strong heating will result in development of moderate to locally strong instability. Scattered storm development is expected within a weakly capped environment, and a few modestly organized cells/clusters could evolve with time, posing a threat for strong to severe gusts and isolated hail. Some westward moisture transport will be possible into parts of the central High Plains and Front Range, within a post-frontal regime. Isolated storms may develop within this regime, though generally modest midlevel lapse rates may tend to limit robust destabilization. ...Northern New England... Strong to extreme instability will again reside across parts of the Northeast and New England Monday afternoon, along the northern periphery of the upper ridge. However, the influence of the upper ridge is still expected to limit storm potential through the day. This region will continue to be monitored for the possibility that storms developing across Quebec may affect parts of northern New England, though this scenario is too uncertain for severe probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 06/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms may develop Monday from parts of the Great Lakes into the central Plains. ...Synopsis... Little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Monday, with a persistent upper trough over the western CONUS, and an amplified upper ridge covering much of the East. A shortwave ejecting from the western trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward toward Hudson Bay by Monday evening. In the wake of this feature, guidance generally depicts only low-amplitude vorticity maxima moving around the periphery of the ridge from the central/southern Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a front is forecast to be draped from the central Plains into the Great Lakes. The northeast portion of this front may continue to move eastward through the day, as a surface low moves across Ontario. To the southwest, the front may stall or begin to move northward as a warm front, as a weak surface wave persists over the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Potential for extensive convection on D2/Sunday creates some uncertainty regarding frontal position on Monday. Locally strong storms may be ongoing Monday morning, with a general increase in storm coverage expected during the afternoon where strong heating is realized in the vicinity of the front. Stronger deep-layer flow will again be displaced to the cool side of the front, but 30-40 kt of midlevel flow overlapping moderate to strong buoyancy will support some potential for organized storms. Mostly unidirectional southwesterly flow could support one or more forward-propagating clusters, with a threat of damaging wind and isolated hail. ...Central Plains vicinity... Deep-layer flow/shear will be somewhat weaker across parts of the central Plains, compared to areas farther northeast. However, strong heating will result in development of moderate to locally strong instability. Scattered storm development is expected within a weakly capped environment, and a few modestly organized cells/clusters could evolve with time, posing a threat for strong to severe gusts and isolated hail. Some westward moisture transport will be possible into parts of the central High Plains and Front Range, within a post-frontal regime. Isolated storms may develop within this regime, though generally modest midlevel lapse rates may tend to limit robust destabilization. ...Northern New England... Strong to extreme instability will again reside across parts of the Northeast and New England Monday afternoon, along the northern periphery of the upper ridge. However, the influence of the upper ridge is still expected to limit storm potential through the day. This region will continue to be monitored for the possibility that storms developing across Quebec may affect parts of northern New England, though this scenario is too uncertain for severe probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 06/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms may develop Monday from parts of the Great Lakes into the central Plains. ...Synopsis... Little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Monday, with a persistent upper trough over the western CONUS, and an amplified upper ridge covering much of the East. A shortwave ejecting from the western trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward toward Hudson Bay by Monday evening. In the wake of this feature, guidance generally depicts only low-amplitude vorticity maxima moving around the periphery of the ridge from the central/southern Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a front is forecast to be draped from the central Plains into the Great Lakes. The northeast portion of this front may continue to move eastward through the day, as a surface low moves across Ontario. To the southwest, the front may stall or begin to move northward as a warm front, as a weak surface wave persists over the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Potential for extensive convection on D2/Sunday creates some uncertainty regarding frontal position on Monday. Locally strong storms may be ongoing Monday morning, with a general increase in storm coverage expected during the afternoon where strong heating is realized in the vicinity of the front. Stronger deep-layer flow will again be displaced to the cool side of the front, but 30-40 kt of midlevel flow overlapping moderate to strong buoyancy will support some potential for organized storms. Mostly unidirectional southwesterly flow could support one or more forward-propagating clusters, with a threat of damaging wind and isolated hail. ...Central Plains vicinity... Deep-layer flow/shear will be somewhat weaker across parts of the central Plains, compared to areas farther northeast. However, strong heating will result in development of moderate to locally strong instability. Scattered storm development is expected within a weakly capped environment, and a few modestly organized cells/clusters could evolve with time, posing a threat for strong to severe gusts and isolated hail. Some westward moisture transport will be possible into parts of the central High Plains and Front Range, within a post-frontal regime. Isolated storms may develop within this regime, though generally modest midlevel lapse rates may tend to limit robust destabilization. ...Northern New England... Strong to extreme instability will again reside across parts of the Northeast and New England Monday afternoon, along the northern periphery of the upper ridge. However, the influence of the upper ridge is still expected to limit storm potential through the day. This region will continue to be monitored for the possibility that storms developing across Quebec may affect parts of northern New England, though this scenario is too uncertain for severe probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 06/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms may develop Monday from parts of the Great Lakes into the central Plains. ...Synopsis... Little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Monday, with a persistent upper trough over the western CONUS, and an amplified upper ridge covering much of the East. A shortwave ejecting from the western trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward toward Hudson Bay by Monday evening. In the wake of this feature, guidance generally depicts only low-amplitude vorticity maxima moving around the periphery of the ridge from the central/southern Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a front is forecast to be draped from the central Plains into the Great Lakes. The northeast portion of this front may continue to move eastward through the day, as a surface low moves across Ontario. To the southwest, the front may stall or begin to move northward as a warm front, as a weak surface wave persists over the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Potential for extensive convection on D2/Sunday creates some uncertainty regarding frontal position on Monday. Locally strong storms may be ongoing Monday morning, with a general increase in storm coverage expected during the afternoon where strong heating is realized in the vicinity of the front. Stronger deep-layer flow will again be displaced to the cool side of the front, but 30-40 kt of midlevel flow overlapping moderate to strong buoyancy will support some potential for organized storms. Mostly unidirectional southwesterly flow could support one or more forward-propagating clusters, with a threat of damaging wind and isolated hail. ...Central Plains vicinity... Deep-layer flow/shear will be somewhat weaker across parts of the central Plains, compared to areas farther northeast. However, strong heating will result in development of moderate to locally strong instability. Scattered storm development is expected within a weakly capped environment, and a few modestly organized cells/clusters could evolve with time, posing a threat for strong to severe gusts and isolated hail. Some westward moisture transport will be possible into parts of the central High Plains and Front Range, within a post-frontal regime. Isolated storms may develop within this regime, though generally modest midlevel lapse rates may tend to limit robust destabilization. ...Northern New England... Strong to extreme instability will again reside across parts of the Northeast and New England Monday afternoon, along the northern periphery of the upper ridge. However, the influence of the upper ridge is still expected to limit storm potential through the day. This region will continue to be monitored for the possibility that storms developing across Quebec may affect parts of northern New England, though this scenario is too uncertain for severe probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 06/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms may develop Monday from parts of the Great Lakes into the central Plains. ...Synopsis... Little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Monday, with a persistent upper trough over the western CONUS, and an amplified upper ridge covering much of the East. A shortwave ejecting from the western trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward toward Hudson Bay by Monday evening. In the wake of this feature, guidance generally depicts only low-amplitude vorticity maxima moving around the periphery of the ridge from the central/southern Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a front is forecast to be draped from the central Plains into the Great Lakes. The northeast portion of this front may continue to move eastward through the day, as a surface low moves across Ontario. To the southwest, the front may stall or begin to move northward as a warm front, as a weak surface wave persists over the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Potential for extensive convection on D2/Sunday creates some uncertainty regarding frontal position on Monday. Locally strong storms may be ongoing Monday morning, with a general increase in storm coverage expected during the afternoon where strong heating is realized in the vicinity of the front. Stronger deep-layer flow will again be displaced to the cool side of the front, but 30-40 kt of midlevel flow overlapping moderate to strong buoyancy will support some potential for organized storms. Mostly unidirectional southwesterly flow could support one or more forward-propagating clusters, with a threat of damaging wind and isolated hail. ...Central Plains vicinity... Deep-layer flow/shear will be somewhat weaker across parts of the central Plains, compared to areas farther northeast. However, strong heating will result in development of moderate to locally strong instability. Scattered storm development is expected within a weakly capped environment, and a few modestly organized cells/clusters could evolve with time, posing a threat for strong to severe gusts and isolated hail. Some westward moisture transport will be possible into parts of the central High Plains and Front Range, within a post-frontal regime. Isolated storms may develop within this regime, though generally modest midlevel lapse rates may tend to limit robust destabilization. ...Northern New England... Strong to extreme instability will again reside across parts of the Northeast and New England Monday afternoon, along the northern periphery of the upper ridge. However, the influence of the upper ridge is still expected to limit storm potential through the day. This region will continue to be monitored for the possibility that storms developing across Quebec may affect parts of northern New England, though this scenario is too uncertain for severe probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 06/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms may develop Monday from parts of the Great Lakes into the central Plains. ...Synopsis... Little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Monday, with a persistent upper trough over the western CONUS, and an amplified upper ridge covering much of the East. A shortwave ejecting from the western trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward toward Hudson Bay by Monday evening. In the wake of this feature, guidance generally depicts only low-amplitude vorticity maxima moving around the periphery of the ridge from the central/southern Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a front is forecast to be draped from the central Plains into the Great Lakes. The northeast portion of this front may continue to move eastward through the day, as a surface low moves across Ontario. To the southwest, the front may stall or begin to move northward as a warm front, as a weak surface wave persists over the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Potential for extensive convection on D2/Sunday creates some uncertainty regarding frontal position on Monday. Locally strong storms may be ongoing Monday morning, with a general increase in storm coverage expected during the afternoon where strong heating is realized in the vicinity of the front. Stronger deep-layer flow will again be displaced to the cool side of the front, but 30-40 kt of midlevel flow overlapping moderate to strong buoyancy will support some potential for organized storms. Mostly unidirectional southwesterly flow could support one or more forward-propagating clusters, with a threat of damaging wind and isolated hail. ...Central Plains vicinity... Deep-layer flow/shear will be somewhat weaker across parts of the central Plains, compared to areas farther northeast. However, strong heating will result in development of moderate to locally strong instability. Scattered storm development is expected within a weakly capped environment, and a few modestly organized cells/clusters could evolve with time, posing a threat for strong to severe gusts and isolated hail. Some westward moisture transport will be possible into parts of the central High Plains and Front Range, within a post-frontal regime. Isolated storms may develop within this regime, though generally modest midlevel lapse rates may tend to limit robust destabilization. ...Northern New England... Strong to extreme instability will again reside across parts of the Northeast and New England Monday afternoon, along the northern periphery of the upper ridge. However, the influence of the upper ridge is still expected to limit storm potential through the day. This region will continue to be monitored for the possibility that storms developing across Quebec may affect parts of northern New England, though this scenario is too uncertain for severe probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 06/21/2025 Read more

MD 1393 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1393 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern MN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449... Valid 210553Z - 210730Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential increasing across northern MN. DISCUSSION...A new, intense bow is developing across northwest MN as a series of supercells have merged and strong rear-inflow (noted in the KMVX VWP data) from the west spreads across the region in tandem with a 45+ kt low-level jet. This bowing segment, currently over Beltrami and Hubbard Counties is expected to develop east along the warm front draped west to east across northern MN. While low-level inhibition is quite strong due to nocturnal stabilization of the near-surface, moderate to strong instability, steep lapse rates, and a very favorable shear parameter space will likely maintain this organized bowing structure for at least a couple of hours. An attendant risk for 75+ mph gusts will accompany this bowing segment, with so potential from a tornado or two near the apex. Additional warm advection storms developing ahead of this bow also will pose a risk for large hail into northeast MN. ..Leitman.. 06/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... LAT...LON 47759533 47939456 47959338 47869263 47729206 47489182 47179198 46939251 46889342 46909459 47039517 47119544 47759533 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Intermountain West through the end of the weekend, and may emerge within parts of the High Plains. ...Intermountain West... The base of the upper trough currently amplifying over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to pivot into the Four Corners/central Rockies through the day Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of moderate mid-level flow will overspread a region with active ongoing fires. Limited precipitation through the next 48 hours will maintain very dry fuels, but the passage of cold front today into early Sunday will help modulate diurnal RH reductions to some degree for Sunday afternoon. Although areas of sub-15% RH are expected, slightly improved RH coupled with weaker low-level winds should result in an overall reduced fire weather concern compared to previous days. Nonetheless, areas of elevated fire weather conditions are probable, and isolated pockets of critical conditions are possible. ...Central High Plains... Latest guidance shows the greatest potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and 15-20% RH across eastern CO into adjacent portions of far southwest NE and northwest KS behind a sharpening dryline. Despite fairly high confidence in critical conditions, green up of grasses across the region should largely mitigate a more robust fire weather threat. However, preceding days of hot/dry/windy conditions should yield at least pockets of dry fuels that may support a low-end fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Intermountain West through the end of the weekend, and may emerge within parts of the High Plains. ...Intermountain West... The base of the upper trough currently amplifying over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to pivot into the Four Corners/central Rockies through the day Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of moderate mid-level flow will overspread a region with active ongoing fires. Limited precipitation through the next 48 hours will maintain very dry fuels, but the passage of cold front today into early Sunday will help modulate diurnal RH reductions to some degree for Sunday afternoon. Although areas of sub-15% RH are expected, slightly improved RH coupled with weaker low-level winds should result in an overall reduced fire weather concern compared to previous days. Nonetheless, areas of elevated fire weather conditions are probable, and isolated pockets of critical conditions are possible. ...Central High Plains... Latest guidance shows the greatest potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and 15-20% RH across eastern CO into adjacent portions of far southwest NE and northwest KS behind a sharpening dryline. Despite fairly high confidence in critical conditions, green up of grasses across the region should largely mitigate a more robust fire weather threat. However, preceding days of hot/dry/windy conditions should yield at least pockets of dry fuels that may support a low-end fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Intermountain West through the end of the weekend, and may emerge within parts of the High Plains. ...Intermountain West... The base of the upper trough currently amplifying over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to pivot into the Four Corners/central Rockies through the day Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of moderate mid-level flow will overspread a region with active ongoing fires. Limited precipitation through the next 48 hours will maintain very dry fuels, but the passage of cold front today into early Sunday will help modulate diurnal RH reductions to some degree for Sunday afternoon. Although areas of sub-15% RH are expected, slightly improved RH coupled with weaker low-level winds should result in an overall reduced fire weather concern compared to previous days. Nonetheless, areas of elevated fire weather conditions are probable, and isolated pockets of critical conditions are possible. ...Central High Plains... Latest guidance shows the greatest potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and 15-20% RH across eastern CO into adjacent portions of far southwest NE and northwest KS behind a sharpening dryline. Despite fairly high confidence in critical conditions, green up of grasses across the region should largely mitigate a more robust fire weather threat. However, preceding days of hot/dry/windy conditions should yield at least pockets of dry fuels that may support a low-end fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Intermountain West through the end of the weekend, and may emerge within parts of the High Plains. ...Intermountain West... The base of the upper trough currently amplifying over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to pivot into the Four Corners/central Rockies through the day Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of moderate mid-level flow will overspread a region with active ongoing fires. Limited precipitation through the next 48 hours will maintain very dry fuels, but the passage of cold front today into early Sunday will help modulate diurnal RH reductions to some degree for Sunday afternoon. Although areas of sub-15% RH are expected, slightly improved RH coupled with weaker low-level winds should result in an overall reduced fire weather concern compared to previous days. Nonetheless, areas of elevated fire weather conditions are probable, and isolated pockets of critical conditions are possible. ...Central High Plains... Latest guidance shows the greatest potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and 15-20% RH across eastern CO into adjacent portions of far southwest NE and northwest KS behind a sharpening dryline. Despite fairly high confidence in critical conditions, green up of grasses across the region should largely mitigate a more robust fire weather threat. However, preceding days of hot/dry/windy conditions should yield at least pockets of dry fuels that may support a low-end fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Intermountain West through the end of the weekend, and may emerge within parts of the High Plains. ...Intermountain West... The base of the upper trough currently amplifying over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to pivot into the Four Corners/central Rockies through the day Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of moderate mid-level flow will overspread a region with active ongoing fires. Limited precipitation through the next 48 hours will maintain very dry fuels, but the passage of cold front today into early Sunday will help modulate diurnal RH reductions to some degree for Sunday afternoon. Although areas of sub-15% RH are expected, slightly improved RH coupled with weaker low-level winds should result in an overall reduced fire weather concern compared to previous days. Nonetheless, areas of elevated fire weather conditions are probable, and isolated pockets of critical conditions are possible. ...Central High Plains... Latest guidance shows the greatest potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and 15-20% RH across eastern CO into adjacent portions of far southwest NE and northwest KS behind a sharpening dryline. Despite fairly high confidence in critical conditions, green up of grasses across the region should largely mitigate a more robust fire weather threat. However, preceding days of hot/dry/windy conditions should yield at least pockets of dry fuels that may support a low-end fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Intermountain West through the end of the weekend, and may emerge within parts of the High Plains. ...Intermountain West... The base of the upper trough currently amplifying over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to pivot into the Four Corners/central Rockies through the day Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of moderate mid-level flow will overspread a region with active ongoing fires. Limited precipitation through the next 48 hours will maintain very dry fuels, but the passage of cold front today into early Sunday will help modulate diurnal RH reductions to some degree for Sunday afternoon. Although areas of sub-15% RH are expected, slightly improved RH coupled with weaker low-level winds should result in an overall reduced fire weather concern compared to previous days. Nonetheless, areas of elevated fire weather conditions are probable, and isolated pockets of critical conditions are possible. ...Central High Plains... Latest guidance shows the greatest potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and 15-20% RH across eastern CO into adjacent portions of far southwest NE and northwest KS behind a sharpening dryline. Despite fairly high confidence in critical conditions, green up of grasses across the region should largely mitigate a more robust fire weather threat. However, preceding days of hot/dry/windy conditions should yield at least pockets of dry fuels that may support a low-end fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Intermountain West through the end of the weekend, and may emerge within parts of the High Plains. ...Intermountain West... The base of the upper trough currently amplifying over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to pivot into the Four Corners/central Rockies through the day Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of moderate mid-level flow will overspread a region with active ongoing fires. Limited precipitation through the next 48 hours will maintain very dry fuels, but the passage of cold front today into early Sunday will help modulate diurnal RH reductions to some degree for Sunday afternoon. Although areas of sub-15% RH are expected, slightly improved RH coupled with weaker low-level winds should result in an overall reduced fire weather concern compared to previous days. Nonetheless, areas of elevated fire weather conditions are probable, and isolated pockets of critical conditions are possible. ...Central High Plains... Latest guidance shows the greatest potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and 15-20% RH across eastern CO into adjacent portions of far southwest NE and northwest KS behind a sharpening dryline. Despite fairly high confidence in critical conditions, green up of grasses across the region should largely mitigate a more robust fire weather threat. However, preceding days of hot/dry/windy conditions should yield at least pockets of dry fuels that may support a low-end fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Intermountain West through the end of the weekend, and may emerge within parts of the High Plains. ...Intermountain West... The base of the upper trough currently amplifying over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to pivot into the Four Corners/central Rockies through the day Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of moderate mid-level flow will overspread a region with active ongoing fires. Limited precipitation through the next 48 hours will maintain very dry fuels, but the passage of cold front today into early Sunday will help modulate diurnal RH reductions to some degree for Sunday afternoon. Although areas of sub-15% RH are expected, slightly improved RH coupled with weaker low-level winds should result in an overall reduced fire weather concern compared to previous days. Nonetheless, areas of elevated fire weather conditions are probable, and isolated pockets of critical conditions are possible. ...Central High Plains... Latest guidance shows the greatest potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and 15-20% RH across eastern CO into adjacent portions of far southwest NE and northwest KS behind a sharpening dryline. Despite fairly high confidence in critical conditions, green up of grasses across the region should largely mitigate a more robust fire weather threat. However, preceding days of hot/dry/windy conditions should yield at least pockets of dry fuels that may support a low-end fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Intermountain West through the end of the weekend, and may emerge within parts of the High Plains. ...Intermountain West... The base of the upper trough currently amplifying over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to pivot into the Four Corners/central Rockies through the day Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of moderate mid-level flow will overspread a region with active ongoing fires. Limited precipitation through the next 48 hours will maintain very dry fuels, but the passage of cold front today into early Sunday will help modulate diurnal RH reductions to some degree for Sunday afternoon. Although areas of sub-15% RH are expected, slightly improved RH coupled with weaker low-level winds should result in an overall reduced fire weather concern compared to previous days. Nonetheless, areas of elevated fire weather conditions are probable, and isolated pockets of critical conditions are possible. ...Central High Plains... Latest guidance shows the greatest potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and 15-20% RH across eastern CO into adjacent portions of far southwest NE and northwest KS behind a sharpening dryline. Despite fairly high confidence in critical conditions, green up of grasses across the region should largely mitigate a more robust fire weather threat. However, preceding days of hot/dry/windy conditions should yield at least pockets of dry fuels that may support a low-end fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Intermountain West through the end of the weekend, and may emerge within parts of the High Plains. ...Intermountain West... The base of the upper trough currently amplifying over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to pivot into the Four Corners/central Rockies through the day Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of moderate mid-level flow will overspread a region with active ongoing fires. Limited precipitation through the next 48 hours will maintain very dry fuels, but the passage of cold front today into early Sunday will help modulate diurnal RH reductions to some degree for Sunday afternoon. Although areas of sub-15% RH are expected, slightly improved RH coupled with weaker low-level winds should result in an overall reduced fire weather concern compared to previous days. Nonetheless, areas of elevated fire weather conditions are probable, and isolated pockets of critical conditions are possible. ...Central High Plains... Latest guidance shows the greatest potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and 15-20% RH across eastern CO into adjacent portions of far southwest NE and northwest KS behind a sharpening dryline. Despite fairly high confidence in critical conditions, green up of grasses across the region should largely mitigate a more robust fire weather threat. However, preceding days of hot/dry/windy conditions should yield at least pockets of dry fuels that may support a low-end fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Intermountain West through the end of the weekend, and may emerge within parts of the High Plains. ...Intermountain West... The base of the upper trough currently amplifying over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to pivot into the Four Corners/central Rockies through the day Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of moderate mid-level flow will overspread a region with active ongoing fires. Limited precipitation through the next 48 hours will maintain very dry fuels, but the passage of cold front today into early Sunday will help modulate diurnal RH reductions to some degree for Sunday afternoon. Although areas of sub-15% RH are expected, slightly improved RH coupled with weaker low-level winds should result in an overall reduced fire weather concern compared to previous days. Nonetheless, areas of elevated fire weather conditions are probable, and isolated pockets of critical conditions are possible. ...Central High Plains... Latest guidance shows the greatest potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and 15-20% RH across eastern CO into adjacent portions of far southwest NE and northwest KS behind a sharpening dryline. Despite fairly high confidence in critical conditions, green up of grasses across the region should largely mitigate a more robust fire weather threat. However, preceding days of hot/dry/windy conditions should yield at least pockets of dry fuels that may support a low-end fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Intermountain West through the end of the weekend, and may emerge within parts of the High Plains. ...Intermountain West... The base of the upper trough currently amplifying over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to pivot into the Four Corners/central Rockies through the day Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of moderate mid-level flow will overspread a region with active ongoing fires. Limited precipitation through the next 48 hours will maintain very dry fuels, but the passage of cold front today into early Sunday will help modulate diurnal RH reductions to some degree for Sunday afternoon. Although areas of sub-15% RH are expected, slightly improved RH coupled with weaker low-level winds should result in an overall reduced fire weather concern compared to previous days. Nonetheless, areas of elevated fire weather conditions are probable, and isolated pockets of critical conditions are possible. ...Central High Plains... Latest guidance shows the greatest potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and 15-20% RH across eastern CO into adjacent portions of far southwest NE and northwest KS behind a sharpening dryline. Despite fairly high confidence in critical conditions, green up of grasses across the region should largely mitigate a more robust fire weather threat. However, preceding days of hot/dry/windy conditions should yield at least pockets of dry fuels that may support a low-end fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more