Severe Storms

WW 0449 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 449 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW DLH TO 15 NNE IWD. ..LEITMAN..06/21/25 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 449 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC003-013-051-099-113-129-211040- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BURNETT IRON PRICE SAWYER WASHBURN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0449 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 449 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW DLH TO 15 NNE IWD. ..LEITMAN..06/21/25 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 449 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC003-013-051-099-113-129-211040- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BURNETT IRON PRICE SAWYER WASHBURN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0449 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 449 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW DLH TO 15 NNE IWD. ..LEITMAN..06/21/25 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 449 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC003-013-051-099-113-129-211040- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BURNETT IRON PRICE SAWYER WASHBURN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 449 SEVERE TSTM MN WI LS 210415Z - 211200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 449 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Minnesota Northern Wisconsin Lake Superior * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 1115 PM until 700 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop and move east across the Watch tonight. A mix of supercells, clusters of storms, and a bow echo are forecast to move into the Watch, and pose a risk for severe gusts (60-80 mph), large to very large hail, and perhaps a tornado. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles northwest of Bemidji MN to 45 miles northeast of Kennedy WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 448... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Smith Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Tuesday... Aside from some modest deamplification, little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Tuesday. An upper trough will remain over the western CONUS, while an upper ridge persists over the East. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will again be possible along the western and northern periphery of the upper ridge, from the central/southern High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Deep-layer flow will generally be modest, but some severe threat could evolve in the vicinity of an outflow-influenced front, in the presence of favorable low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy. Farther east, a cold front is forecast to move southward across parts of northern New England. Guidance varies regarding the extent to which stronger deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent lag behind the front, but moderate to strong buoyancy could support at least an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening. ...D5/Wednesday... Continued modest weakening of both the western trough and eastern ridge is generally forecast on Wednesday. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will again be possible from the High Plains into the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast, along the periphery of the ridge. Deep-layer flow is expected to be relatively weak across most areas, but mesoscale corridors of somewhat greater severe threat could evolve within this pattern. ...D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday... Predictability of the large-scale pattern begins to notably decrease by the end of next week. In general, an upper ridge may persist over the Southeast, while one or more mid/upper-level shortwave troughs move across the northern CONUS. This pattern may eventually yield an increasing threat for organized severe storms across the northern Rockies/Plains and Upper Midwest, but details are very uncertain at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Tuesday... Aside from some modest deamplification, little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Tuesday. An upper trough will remain over the western CONUS, while an upper ridge persists over the East. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will again be possible along the western and northern periphery of the upper ridge, from the central/southern High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Deep-layer flow will generally be modest, but some severe threat could evolve in the vicinity of an outflow-influenced front, in the presence of favorable low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy. Farther east, a cold front is forecast to move southward across parts of northern New England. Guidance varies regarding the extent to which stronger deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent lag behind the front, but moderate to strong buoyancy could support at least an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening. ...D5/Wednesday... Continued modest weakening of both the western trough and eastern ridge is generally forecast on Wednesday. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will again be possible from the High Plains into the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast, along the periphery of the ridge. Deep-layer flow is expected to be relatively weak across most areas, but mesoscale corridors of somewhat greater severe threat could evolve within this pattern. ...D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday... Predictability of the large-scale pattern begins to notably decrease by the end of next week. In general, an upper ridge may persist over the Southeast, while one or more mid/upper-level shortwave troughs move across the northern CONUS. This pattern may eventually yield an increasing threat for organized severe storms across the northern Rockies/Plains and Upper Midwest, but details are very uncertain at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Tuesday... Aside from some modest deamplification, little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Tuesday. An upper trough will remain over the western CONUS, while an upper ridge persists over the East. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will again be possible along the western and northern periphery of the upper ridge, from the central/southern High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Deep-layer flow will generally be modest, but some severe threat could evolve in the vicinity of an outflow-influenced front, in the presence of favorable low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy. Farther east, a cold front is forecast to move southward across parts of northern New England. Guidance varies regarding the extent to which stronger deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent lag behind the front, but moderate to strong buoyancy could support at least an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening. ...D5/Wednesday... Continued modest weakening of both the western trough and eastern ridge is generally forecast on Wednesday. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will again be possible from the High Plains into the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast, along the periphery of the ridge. Deep-layer flow is expected to be relatively weak across most areas, but mesoscale corridors of somewhat greater severe threat could evolve within this pattern. ...D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday... Predictability of the large-scale pattern begins to notably decrease by the end of next week. In general, an upper ridge may persist over the Southeast, while one or more mid/upper-level shortwave troughs move across the northern CONUS. This pattern may eventually yield an increasing threat for organized severe storms across the northern Rockies/Plains and Upper Midwest, but details are very uncertain at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Tuesday... Aside from some modest deamplification, little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Tuesday. An upper trough will remain over the western CONUS, while an upper ridge persists over the East. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will again be possible along the western and northern periphery of the upper ridge, from the central/southern High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Deep-layer flow will generally be modest, but some severe threat could evolve in the vicinity of an outflow-influenced front, in the presence of favorable low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy. Farther east, a cold front is forecast to move southward across parts of northern New England. Guidance varies regarding the extent to which stronger deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent lag behind the front, but moderate to strong buoyancy could support at least an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening. ...D5/Wednesday... Continued modest weakening of both the western trough and eastern ridge is generally forecast on Wednesday. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will again be possible from the High Plains into the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast, along the periphery of the ridge. Deep-layer flow is expected to be relatively weak across most areas, but mesoscale corridors of somewhat greater severe threat could evolve within this pattern. ...D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday... Predictability of the large-scale pattern begins to notably decrease by the end of next week. In general, an upper ridge may persist over the Southeast, while one or more mid/upper-level shortwave troughs move across the northern CONUS. This pattern may eventually yield an increasing threat for organized severe storms across the northern Rockies/Plains and Upper Midwest, but details are very uncertain at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Tuesday... Aside from some modest deamplification, little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Tuesday. An upper trough will remain over the western CONUS, while an upper ridge persists over the East. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will again be possible along the western and northern periphery of the upper ridge, from the central/southern High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Deep-layer flow will generally be modest, but some severe threat could evolve in the vicinity of an outflow-influenced front, in the presence of favorable low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy. Farther east, a cold front is forecast to move southward across parts of northern New England. Guidance varies regarding the extent to which stronger deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent lag behind the front, but moderate to strong buoyancy could support at least an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening. ...D5/Wednesday... Continued modest weakening of both the western trough and eastern ridge is generally forecast on Wednesday. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will again be possible from the High Plains into the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast, along the periphery of the ridge. Deep-layer flow is expected to be relatively weak across most areas, but mesoscale corridors of somewhat greater severe threat could evolve within this pattern. ...D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday... Predictability of the large-scale pattern begins to notably decrease by the end of next week. In general, an upper ridge may persist over the Southeast, while one or more mid/upper-level shortwave troughs move across the northern CONUS. This pattern may eventually yield an increasing threat for organized severe storms across the northern Rockies/Plains and Upper Midwest, but details are very uncertain at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Tuesday... Aside from some modest deamplification, little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Tuesday. An upper trough will remain over the western CONUS, while an upper ridge persists over the East. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will again be possible along the western and northern periphery of the upper ridge, from the central/southern High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Deep-layer flow will generally be modest, but some severe threat could evolve in the vicinity of an outflow-influenced front, in the presence of favorable low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy. Farther east, a cold front is forecast to move southward across parts of northern New England. Guidance varies regarding the extent to which stronger deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent lag behind the front, but moderate to strong buoyancy could support at least an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening. ...D5/Wednesday... Continued modest weakening of both the western trough and eastern ridge is generally forecast on Wednesday. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will again be possible from the High Plains into the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast, along the periphery of the ridge. Deep-layer flow is expected to be relatively weak across most areas, but mesoscale corridors of somewhat greater severe threat could evolve within this pattern. ...D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday... Predictability of the large-scale pattern begins to notably decrease by the end of next week. In general, an upper ridge may persist over the Southeast, while one or more mid/upper-level shortwave troughs move across the northern CONUS. This pattern may eventually yield an increasing threat for organized severe storms across the northern Rockies/Plains and Upper Midwest, but details are very uncertain at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Tuesday... Aside from some modest deamplification, little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Tuesday. An upper trough will remain over the western CONUS, while an upper ridge persists over the East. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will again be possible along the western and northern periphery of the upper ridge, from the central/southern High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Deep-layer flow will generally be modest, but some severe threat could evolve in the vicinity of an outflow-influenced front, in the presence of favorable low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy. Farther east, a cold front is forecast to move southward across parts of northern New England. Guidance varies regarding the extent to which stronger deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent lag behind the front, but moderate to strong buoyancy could support at least an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening. ...D5/Wednesday... Continued modest weakening of both the western trough and eastern ridge is generally forecast on Wednesday. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will again be possible from the High Plains into the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast, along the periphery of the ridge. Deep-layer flow is expected to be relatively weak across most areas, but mesoscale corridors of somewhat greater severe threat could evolve within this pattern. ...D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday... Predictability of the large-scale pattern begins to notably decrease by the end of next week. In general, an upper ridge may persist over the Southeast, while one or more mid/upper-level shortwave troughs move across the northern CONUS. This pattern may eventually yield an increasing threat for organized severe storms across the northern Rockies/Plains and Upper Midwest, but details are very uncertain at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Tuesday... Aside from some modest deamplification, little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Tuesday. An upper trough will remain over the western CONUS, while an upper ridge persists over the East. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will again be possible along the western and northern periphery of the upper ridge, from the central/southern High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Deep-layer flow will generally be modest, but some severe threat could evolve in the vicinity of an outflow-influenced front, in the presence of favorable low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy. Farther east, a cold front is forecast to move southward across parts of northern New England. Guidance varies regarding the extent to which stronger deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent lag behind the front, but moderate to strong buoyancy could support at least an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening. ...D5/Wednesday... Continued modest weakening of both the western trough and eastern ridge is generally forecast on Wednesday. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will again be possible from the High Plains into the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast, along the periphery of the ridge. Deep-layer flow is expected to be relatively weak across most areas, but mesoscale corridors of somewhat greater severe threat could evolve within this pattern. ...D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday... Predictability of the large-scale pattern begins to notably decrease by the end of next week. In general, an upper ridge may persist over the Southeast, while one or more mid/upper-level shortwave troughs move across the northern CONUS. This pattern may eventually yield an increasing threat for organized severe storms across the northern Rockies/Plains and Upper Midwest, but details are very uncertain at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Tuesday... Aside from some modest deamplification, little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Tuesday. An upper trough will remain over the western CONUS, while an upper ridge persists over the East. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will again be possible along the western and northern periphery of the upper ridge, from the central/southern High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Deep-layer flow will generally be modest, but some severe threat could evolve in the vicinity of an outflow-influenced front, in the presence of favorable low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy. Farther east, a cold front is forecast to move southward across parts of northern New England. Guidance varies regarding the extent to which stronger deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent lag behind the front, but moderate to strong buoyancy could support at least an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening. ...D5/Wednesday... Continued modest weakening of both the western trough and eastern ridge is generally forecast on Wednesday. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will again be possible from the High Plains into the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast, along the periphery of the ridge. Deep-layer flow is expected to be relatively weak across most areas, but mesoscale corridors of somewhat greater severe threat could evolve within this pattern. ...D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday... Predictability of the large-scale pattern begins to notably decrease by the end of next week. In general, an upper ridge may persist over the Southeast, while one or more mid/upper-level shortwave troughs move across the northern CONUS. This pattern may eventually yield an increasing threat for organized severe storms across the northern Rockies/Plains and Upper Midwest, but details are very uncertain at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Tuesday... Aside from some modest deamplification, little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Tuesday. An upper trough will remain over the western CONUS, while an upper ridge persists over the East. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will again be possible along the western and northern periphery of the upper ridge, from the central/southern High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Deep-layer flow will generally be modest, but some severe threat could evolve in the vicinity of an outflow-influenced front, in the presence of favorable low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy. Farther east, a cold front is forecast to move southward across parts of northern New England. Guidance varies regarding the extent to which stronger deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent lag behind the front, but moderate to strong buoyancy could support at least an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening. ...D5/Wednesday... Continued modest weakening of both the western trough and eastern ridge is generally forecast on Wednesday. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will again be possible from the High Plains into the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast, along the periphery of the ridge. Deep-layer flow is expected to be relatively weak across most areas, but mesoscale corridors of somewhat greater severe threat could evolve within this pattern. ...D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday... Predictability of the large-scale pattern begins to notably decrease by the end of next week. In general, an upper ridge may persist over the Southeast, while one or more mid/upper-level shortwave troughs move across the northern CONUS. This pattern may eventually yield an increasing threat for organized severe storms across the northern Rockies/Plains and Upper Midwest, but details are very uncertain at this forecast range. Read more

WW 0449 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 449 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE BRD TO 45 NE BRD TO 15 WSW BFW TO 40 NE ELO. ..LEITMAN..06/21/25 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 449 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-017-031-061-075-115-210940- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN CARLTON COOK ITASCA LAKE PINE WIC003-007-013-031-051-099-113-129-210940- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BAYFIELD BURNETT DOUGLAS IRON PRICE SAWYER WASHBURN LSZ121-140-141-142-143-144-145-146-147-148-150-162-210940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 1394 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WI INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI
Mesoscale Discussion 1394 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern WI into the Upper Peninsula of MI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 210634Z - 210830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong wind gusts are possible with thunderstorm activity into early morning. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed within a warm advection regime and on the nose of an 850 mb low-level jet spreading northeast with time. This activity is likely elevated, but steep midlevel lapse rates and supercell wind profiles are present across the region. Isolated large hail will be the main hazard, with sporadic hail in the 1-1.5 inch diameter range possible. Trends will be monitored for possible increasing storm coverage/intensity, though severe thunderstorm watch issuance is uncertain given the overall marginal thermodynamic environment with eastward extent across the U.P. and northeast WI. ..Leitman/Mosier.. 06/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH... LAT...LON 47189047 47348885 47148819 46628749 45978762 45458799 45208852 45228917 45608961 46159029 46449075 46839076 47189047 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms may develop Monday from parts of the Great Lakes into the central Plains. ...Synopsis... Little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Monday, with a persistent upper trough over the western CONUS, and an amplified upper ridge covering much of the East. A shortwave ejecting from the western trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward toward Hudson Bay by Monday evening. In the wake of this feature, guidance generally depicts only low-amplitude vorticity maxima moving around the periphery of the ridge from the central/southern Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a front is forecast to be draped from the central Plains into the Great Lakes. The northeast portion of this front may continue to move eastward through the day, as a surface low moves across Ontario. To the southwest, the front may stall or begin to move northward as a warm front, as a weak surface wave persists over the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Potential for extensive convection on D2/Sunday creates some uncertainty regarding frontal position on Monday. Locally strong storms may be ongoing Monday morning, with a general increase in storm coverage expected during the afternoon where strong heating is realized in the vicinity of the front. Stronger deep-layer flow will again be displaced to the cool side of the front, but 30-40 kt of midlevel flow overlapping moderate to strong buoyancy will support some potential for organized storms. Mostly unidirectional southwesterly flow could support one or more forward-propagating clusters, with a threat of damaging wind and isolated hail. ...Central Plains vicinity... Deep-layer flow/shear will be somewhat weaker across parts of the central Plains, compared to areas farther northeast. However, strong heating will result in development of moderate to locally strong instability. Scattered storm development is expected within a weakly capped environment, and a few modestly organized cells/clusters could evolve with time, posing a threat for strong to severe gusts and isolated hail. Some westward moisture transport will be possible into parts of the central High Plains and Front Range, within a post-frontal regime. Isolated storms may develop within this regime, though generally modest midlevel lapse rates may tend to limit robust destabilization. ...Northern New England... Strong to extreme instability will again reside across parts of the Northeast and New England Monday afternoon, along the northern periphery of the upper ridge. However, the influence of the upper ridge is still expected to limit storm potential through the day. This region will continue to be monitored for the possibility that storms developing across Quebec may affect parts of northern New England, though this scenario is too uncertain for severe probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 06/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms may develop Monday from parts of the Great Lakes into the central Plains. ...Synopsis... Little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Monday, with a persistent upper trough over the western CONUS, and an amplified upper ridge covering much of the East. A shortwave ejecting from the western trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward toward Hudson Bay by Monday evening. In the wake of this feature, guidance generally depicts only low-amplitude vorticity maxima moving around the periphery of the ridge from the central/southern Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a front is forecast to be draped from the central Plains into the Great Lakes. The northeast portion of this front may continue to move eastward through the day, as a surface low moves across Ontario. To the southwest, the front may stall or begin to move northward as a warm front, as a weak surface wave persists over the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Potential for extensive convection on D2/Sunday creates some uncertainty regarding frontal position on Monday. Locally strong storms may be ongoing Monday morning, with a general increase in storm coverage expected during the afternoon where strong heating is realized in the vicinity of the front. Stronger deep-layer flow will again be displaced to the cool side of the front, but 30-40 kt of midlevel flow overlapping moderate to strong buoyancy will support some potential for organized storms. Mostly unidirectional southwesterly flow could support one or more forward-propagating clusters, with a threat of damaging wind and isolated hail. ...Central Plains vicinity... Deep-layer flow/shear will be somewhat weaker across parts of the central Plains, compared to areas farther northeast. However, strong heating will result in development of moderate to locally strong instability. Scattered storm development is expected within a weakly capped environment, and a few modestly organized cells/clusters could evolve with time, posing a threat for strong to severe gusts and isolated hail. Some westward moisture transport will be possible into parts of the central High Plains and Front Range, within a post-frontal regime. Isolated storms may develop within this regime, though generally modest midlevel lapse rates may tend to limit robust destabilization. ...Northern New England... Strong to extreme instability will again reside across parts of the Northeast and New England Monday afternoon, along the northern periphery of the upper ridge. However, the influence of the upper ridge is still expected to limit storm potential through the day. This region will continue to be monitored for the possibility that storms developing across Quebec may affect parts of northern New England, though this scenario is too uncertain for severe probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 06/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms may develop Monday from parts of the Great Lakes into the central Plains. ...Synopsis... Little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Monday, with a persistent upper trough over the western CONUS, and an amplified upper ridge covering much of the East. A shortwave ejecting from the western trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward toward Hudson Bay by Monday evening. In the wake of this feature, guidance generally depicts only low-amplitude vorticity maxima moving around the periphery of the ridge from the central/southern Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a front is forecast to be draped from the central Plains into the Great Lakes. The northeast portion of this front may continue to move eastward through the day, as a surface low moves across Ontario. To the southwest, the front may stall or begin to move northward as a warm front, as a weak surface wave persists over the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Potential for extensive convection on D2/Sunday creates some uncertainty regarding frontal position on Monday. Locally strong storms may be ongoing Monday morning, with a general increase in storm coverage expected during the afternoon where strong heating is realized in the vicinity of the front. Stronger deep-layer flow will again be displaced to the cool side of the front, but 30-40 kt of midlevel flow overlapping moderate to strong buoyancy will support some potential for organized storms. Mostly unidirectional southwesterly flow could support one or more forward-propagating clusters, with a threat of damaging wind and isolated hail. ...Central Plains vicinity... Deep-layer flow/shear will be somewhat weaker across parts of the central Plains, compared to areas farther northeast. However, strong heating will result in development of moderate to locally strong instability. Scattered storm development is expected within a weakly capped environment, and a few modestly organized cells/clusters could evolve with time, posing a threat for strong to severe gusts and isolated hail. Some westward moisture transport will be possible into parts of the central High Plains and Front Range, within a post-frontal regime. Isolated storms may develop within this regime, though generally modest midlevel lapse rates may tend to limit robust destabilization. ...Northern New England... Strong to extreme instability will again reside across parts of the Northeast and New England Monday afternoon, along the northern periphery of the upper ridge. However, the influence of the upper ridge is still expected to limit storm potential through the day. This region will continue to be monitored for the possibility that storms developing across Quebec may affect parts of northern New England, though this scenario is too uncertain for severe probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 06/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms may develop Monday from parts of the Great Lakes into the central Plains. ...Synopsis... Little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Monday, with a persistent upper trough over the western CONUS, and an amplified upper ridge covering much of the East. A shortwave ejecting from the western trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward toward Hudson Bay by Monday evening. In the wake of this feature, guidance generally depicts only low-amplitude vorticity maxima moving around the periphery of the ridge from the central/southern Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a front is forecast to be draped from the central Plains into the Great Lakes. The northeast portion of this front may continue to move eastward through the day, as a surface low moves across Ontario. To the southwest, the front may stall or begin to move northward as a warm front, as a weak surface wave persists over the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Potential for extensive convection on D2/Sunday creates some uncertainty regarding frontal position on Monday. Locally strong storms may be ongoing Monday morning, with a general increase in storm coverage expected during the afternoon where strong heating is realized in the vicinity of the front. Stronger deep-layer flow will again be displaced to the cool side of the front, but 30-40 kt of midlevel flow overlapping moderate to strong buoyancy will support some potential for organized storms. Mostly unidirectional southwesterly flow could support one or more forward-propagating clusters, with a threat of damaging wind and isolated hail. ...Central Plains vicinity... Deep-layer flow/shear will be somewhat weaker across parts of the central Plains, compared to areas farther northeast. However, strong heating will result in development of moderate to locally strong instability. Scattered storm development is expected within a weakly capped environment, and a few modestly organized cells/clusters could evolve with time, posing a threat for strong to severe gusts and isolated hail. Some westward moisture transport will be possible into parts of the central High Plains and Front Range, within a post-frontal regime. Isolated storms may develop within this regime, though generally modest midlevel lapse rates may tend to limit robust destabilization. ...Northern New England... Strong to extreme instability will again reside across parts of the Northeast and New England Monday afternoon, along the northern periphery of the upper ridge. However, the influence of the upper ridge is still expected to limit storm potential through the day. This region will continue to be monitored for the possibility that storms developing across Quebec may affect parts of northern New England, though this scenario is too uncertain for severe probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 06/21/2025 Read more