Severe Storms

MD 1558 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 485... FOR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1558 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Areas affected...Northern North Dakota...Far Northwest Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 485... Valid 040614Z - 040815Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 485 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue for a few more hours from northern North Dakota into far northwest Minnesota. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. A watch extension of 1 to 2 hours could be needed as the 07Z expiration of WW 485 approaches. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar across the northern Plains shows a line of strong thunderstorms located near the North-Dakota-Canada border, to the northwest of Grand Forks. Short-term model forecasts suggest the line will move eastward along the border for a few more hours, and will likely affect far northeast North Dakota and far northwest Minnesota. This line is located along a sharp gradient of moderate instability, which combined with 25 to 30 knot of 0-6 km shear evident on the Grand Forks WSR-88D VWP, should support an isolated wind-damage and hail threat. Further to the west-southwest, a relatively isolated severe storm is ongoing to the west of Minot, North Dakota. This storm is located along an axis of moderate instability, with the RAP estimating MLCAPE near 2000 J/Kg. The storm is likely being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a subtle shortwave trough moving through western North Dakota. RAP mesoscale analysis currently shows a pocket of very steep low to mid-level lapse rates over much of North Dakota, where 850 to 500 mb lapse rates are in the 7.5 to 8 C/Km range. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear should support a wind-damage threat over the next couple of hours. ..Broyles/Smith.. 07/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 48339642 48159753 48009871 47850037 47800147 48030186 48300182 48580166 48840119 48930041 48989817 49009725 48959660 48829631 48589624 48339642 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge is expected to build over the southern Rockies during the day on Sunday. Modest mid-level flow around the periphery of the ridge is expected to mix downward during the afternoon hours and promote dry, breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. RH is expected to be in the 5-15% range across much of this region with gusts to 15-20 mph. However, across the northern Rockies recent rainfall has made fuels largely too moist for fire spread. Therefore, have added an Elevated area across portions of southeastern Nevada and southwestern Utah, where the driest fuels overlap with the corridor of strongest winds. ..Supinie.. 07/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge is expected to build over the southern Rockies during the day on Sunday. Modest mid-level flow around the periphery of the ridge is expected to mix downward during the afternoon hours and promote dry, breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. RH is expected to be in the 5-15% range across much of this region with gusts to 15-20 mph. However, across the northern Rockies recent rainfall has made fuels largely too moist for fire spread. Therefore, have added an Elevated area across portions of southeastern Nevada and southwestern Utah, where the driest fuels overlap with the corridor of strongest winds. ..Supinie.. 07/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge is expected to build over the southern Rockies during the day on Sunday. Modest mid-level flow around the periphery of the ridge is expected to mix downward during the afternoon hours and promote dry, breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. RH is expected to be in the 5-15% range across much of this region with gusts to 15-20 mph. However, across the northern Rockies recent rainfall has made fuels largely too moist for fire spread. Therefore, have added an Elevated area across portions of southeastern Nevada and southwestern Utah, where the driest fuels overlap with the corridor of strongest winds. ..Supinie.. 07/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge is expected to build over the southern Rockies during the day on Sunday. Modest mid-level flow around the periphery of the ridge is expected to mix downward during the afternoon hours and promote dry, breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. RH is expected to be in the 5-15% range across much of this region with gusts to 15-20 mph. However, across the northern Rockies recent rainfall has made fuels largely too moist for fire spread. Therefore, have added an Elevated area across portions of southeastern Nevada and southwestern Utah, where the driest fuels overlap with the corridor of strongest winds. ..Supinie.. 07/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA AND SOUTHWESTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the central CONUS, with various shortwave troughs traversing the periphery. One such trough is expected to move across portions of the Great Basin, providing a focus for fire weather concerns through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of southeastern Oregon, where surface moisture will be sufficient for conditional instability to develop. In this environment, inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, low precipitable water, and strong deep-layer shear suggest the potential for dry thunderstorms. Fuels in the region have not received much rainfall recently and therefore should be receptive to lightning ignitions. Farther south across portions of the Great Basin, strong mixing is expected to promote RH in the 5-15% range with strong winds. A Critical area has been maintained across portions of southeast Nevada and southwestern Utah, where a corridor of enhanced surface winds is expected in association with a mid-level jet. This region also has the best overlap with dry fuels. ..Supinie.. 07/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA AND SOUTHWESTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the central CONUS, with various shortwave troughs traversing the periphery. One such trough is expected to move across portions of the Great Basin, providing a focus for fire weather concerns through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of southeastern Oregon, where surface moisture will be sufficient for conditional instability to develop. In this environment, inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, low precipitable water, and strong deep-layer shear suggest the potential for dry thunderstorms. Fuels in the region have not received much rainfall recently and therefore should be receptive to lightning ignitions. Farther south across portions of the Great Basin, strong mixing is expected to promote RH in the 5-15% range with strong winds. A Critical area has been maintained across portions of southeast Nevada and southwestern Utah, where a corridor of enhanced surface winds is expected in association with a mid-level jet. This region also has the best overlap with dry fuels. ..Supinie.. 07/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA AND SOUTHWESTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the central CONUS, with various shortwave troughs traversing the periphery. One such trough is expected to move across portions of the Great Basin, providing a focus for fire weather concerns through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of southeastern Oregon, where surface moisture will be sufficient for conditional instability to develop. In this environment, inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, low precipitable water, and strong deep-layer shear suggest the potential for dry thunderstorms. Fuels in the region have not received much rainfall recently and therefore should be receptive to lightning ignitions. Farther south across portions of the Great Basin, strong mixing is expected to promote RH in the 5-15% range with strong winds. A Critical area has been maintained across portions of southeast Nevada and southwestern Utah, where a corridor of enhanced surface winds is expected in association with a mid-level jet. This region also has the best overlap with dry fuels. ..Supinie.. 07/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA AND SOUTHWESTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the central CONUS, with various shortwave troughs traversing the periphery. One such trough is expected to move across portions of the Great Basin, providing a focus for fire weather concerns through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of southeastern Oregon, where surface moisture will be sufficient for conditional instability to develop. In this environment, inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, low precipitable water, and strong deep-layer shear suggest the potential for dry thunderstorms. Fuels in the region have not received much rainfall recently and therefore should be receptive to lightning ignitions. Farther south across portions of the Great Basin, strong mixing is expected to promote RH in the 5-15% range with strong winds. A Critical area has been maintained across portions of southeast Nevada and southwestern Utah, where a corridor of enhanced surface winds is expected in association with a mid-level jet. This region also has the best overlap with dry fuels. ..Supinie.. 07/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0485 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 485 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N Y22 TO 35 WSW N60 TO 45 NW MOT. ..BROYLES..07/04/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 485 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC005-009-015-019-027-031-037-043-049-055-057-059-063-065-067- 069-071-075-079-083-095-099-101-103-040740- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENSON BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH CAVALIER EDDY FOSTER GRANT KIDDER MCHENRY MCLEAN MERCER MORTON NELSON OLIVER PEMBINA PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN TOWNER WALSH WARD WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 485 SEVERE TSTM ND 040005Z - 040700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 485 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 705 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North Dakota * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 705 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...As a cap weakens, storms should further develop and intensify this evening, including initially across western North Dakota, as well as potentially near the International Border. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible within a moist and very unstable environment. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west northwest of Dickinson ND to 45 miles east of Devils Lake ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 484... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains tomorrow (Saturday), with hail and wind being the main concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger storms over the Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... Generally zonal mid-level flow will overspread the northern CONUS as an upper trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Saturday). A pair of mid-level impulses will traverse the zonal flow, with one impulse passing over the Great Lakes as the other impulse ejects into the Northern High Plains. Over both locations, adequate moisture and instability will be in place to support strong thunderstorms. The best chance for severe thunderstorms will be over the northern High Plains, where stronger vertical wind shear will encourage storm organization. ...Northern into the central High Plains... A belt of strong westerly 500 mb flow will overspread MT into the northern High Plains Saturday afternoon with the passage of the aforementioned mid-level impulse. A surface low will develop somewhere across northern WY into southern MT, promoting moist southeasterly low-level flow beneath the stronger mid-level westerlies, resulting in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Adequate low-level moisture, overspread by 8+ C/km low to mid-level lapse rates, will boost MLCAPE to over 2000 J/kg in spots. The moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will promote supercells and bowing segments capable of producing some severe wind and hail. A tornado is also possible with the longer-lived, dominant supercells. Farther south into the central High Plains, deep-layer ascent and shear should be considerably weaker, resulting in a lower coverage of relatively less organized multicellular clusters. Storms here should be high-based, overspreading a dry boundary layer deepening into the 700-500 mb range by afternoon peak heating. Isolated severe gusts are possible with the stronger multicellular clusters, and an instance or two of severe hail cannot be ruled out. ...Great Lakes into the central Plains... A weak surface cold front, associated with a surface low over the Great Lakes, will progress southeastward across the western Great Lakes into the central Plains as the eastern mid-level impulse glances by to the north. Flow closer to the surface and aloft, and thus vertical wind shear, will not be overly strong ahead of the front. However, rich low-level moisture amid afternoon surface heating will promote 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and minimal convective inhibition. Scattered multicells should develop along/ahead of the front through the afternoon, the stronger storms of which may produce wet downbursts and accompanying isolated damaging gusts. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains tomorrow (Saturday), with hail and wind being the main concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger storms over the Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... Generally zonal mid-level flow will overspread the northern CONUS as an upper trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Saturday). A pair of mid-level impulses will traverse the zonal flow, with one impulse passing over the Great Lakes as the other impulse ejects into the Northern High Plains. Over both locations, adequate moisture and instability will be in place to support strong thunderstorms. The best chance for severe thunderstorms will be over the northern High Plains, where stronger vertical wind shear will encourage storm organization. ...Northern into the central High Plains... A belt of strong westerly 500 mb flow will overspread MT into the northern High Plains Saturday afternoon with the passage of the aforementioned mid-level impulse. A surface low will develop somewhere across northern WY into southern MT, promoting moist southeasterly low-level flow beneath the stronger mid-level westerlies, resulting in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Adequate low-level moisture, overspread by 8+ C/km low to mid-level lapse rates, will boost MLCAPE to over 2000 J/kg in spots. The moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will promote supercells and bowing segments capable of producing some severe wind and hail. A tornado is also possible with the longer-lived, dominant supercells. Farther south into the central High Plains, deep-layer ascent and shear should be considerably weaker, resulting in a lower coverage of relatively less organized multicellular clusters. Storms here should be high-based, overspreading a dry boundary layer deepening into the 700-500 mb range by afternoon peak heating. Isolated severe gusts are possible with the stronger multicellular clusters, and an instance or two of severe hail cannot be ruled out. ...Great Lakes into the central Plains... A weak surface cold front, associated with a surface low over the Great Lakes, will progress southeastward across the western Great Lakes into the central Plains as the eastern mid-level impulse glances by to the north. Flow closer to the surface and aloft, and thus vertical wind shear, will not be overly strong ahead of the front. However, rich low-level moisture amid afternoon surface heating will promote 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and minimal convective inhibition. Scattered multicells should develop along/ahead of the front through the afternoon, the stronger storms of which may produce wet downbursts and accompanying isolated damaging gusts. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains tomorrow (Saturday), with hail and wind being the main concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger storms over the Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... Generally zonal mid-level flow will overspread the northern CONUS as an upper trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Saturday). A pair of mid-level impulses will traverse the zonal flow, with one impulse passing over the Great Lakes as the other impulse ejects into the Northern High Plains. Over both locations, adequate moisture and instability will be in place to support strong thunderstorms. The best chance for severe thunderstorms will be over the northern High Plains, where stronger vertical wind shear will encourage storm organization. ...Northern into the central High Plains... A belt of strong westerly 500 mb flow will overspread MT into the northern High Plains Saturday afternoon with the passage of the aforementioned mid-level impulse. A surface low will develop somewhere across northern WY into southern MT, promoting moist southeasterly low-level flow beneath the stronger mid-level westerlies, resulting in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Adequate low-level moisture, overspread by 8+ C/km low to mid-level lapse rates, will boost MLCAPE to over 2000 J/kg in spots. The moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will promote supercells and bowing segments capable of producing some severe wind and hail. A tornado is also possible with the longer-lived, dominant supercells. Farther south into the central High Plains, deep-layer ascent and shear should be considerably weaker, resulting in a lower coverage of relatively less organized multicellular clusters. Storms here should be high-based, overspreading a dry boundary layer deepening into the 700-500 mb range by afternoon peak heating. Isolated severe gusts are possible with the stronger multicellular clusters, and an instance or two of severe hail cannot be ruled out. ...Great Lakes into the central Plains... A weak surface cold front, associated with a surface low over the Great Lakes, will progress southeastward across the western Great Lakes into the central Plains as the eastern mid-level impulse glances by to the north. Flow closer to the surface and aloft, and thus vertical wind shear, will not be overly strong ahead of the front. However, rich low-level moisture amid afternoon surface heating will promote 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and minimal convective inhibition. Scattered multicells should develop along/ahead of the front through the afternoon, the stronger storms of which may produce wet downbursts and accompanying isolated damaging gusts. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains tomorrow (Saturday), with hail and wind being the main concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger storms over the Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... Generally zonal mid-level flow will overspread the northern CONUS as an upper trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Saturday). A pair of mid-level impulses will traverse the zonal flow, with one impulse passing over the Great Lakes as the other impulse ejects into the Northern High Plains. Over both locations, adequate moisture and instability will be in place to support strong thunderstorms. The best chance for severe thunderstorms will be over the northern High Plains, where stronger vertical wind shear will encourage storm organization. ...Northern into the central High Plains... A belt of strong westerly 500 mb flow will overspread MT into the northern High Plains Saturday afternoon with the passage of the aforementioned mid-level impulse. A surface low will develop somewhere across northern WY into southern MT, promoting moist southeasterly low-level flow beneath the stronger mid-level westerlies, resulting in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Adequate low-level moisture, overspread by 8+ C/km low to mid-level lapse rates, will boost MLCAPE to over 2000 J/kg in spots. The moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will promote supercells and bowing segments capable of producing some severe wind and hail. A tornado is also possible with the longer-lived, dominant supercells. Farther south into the central High Plains, deep-layer ascent and shear should be considerably weaker, resulting in a lower coverage of relatively less organized multicellular clusters. Storms here should be high-based, overspreading a dry boundary layer deepening into the 700-500 mb range by afternoon peak heating. Isolated severe gusts are possible with the stronger multicellular clusters, and an instance or two of severe hail cannot be ruled out. ...Great Lakes into the central Plains... A weak surface cold front, associated with a surface low over the Great Lakes, will progress southeastward across the western Great Lakes into the central Plains as the eastern mid-level impulse glances by to the north. Flow closer to the surface and aloft, and thus vertical wind shear, will not be overly strong ahead of the front. However, rich low-level moisture amid afternoon surface heating will promote 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and minimal convective inhibition. Scattered multicells should develop along/ahead of the front through the afternoon, the stronger storms of which may produce wet downbursts and accompanying isolated damaging gusts. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains tomorrow (Saturday), with hail and wind being the main concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger storms over the Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... Generally zonal mid-level flow will overspread the northern CONUS as an upper trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Saturday). A pair of mid-level impulses will traverse the zonal flow, with one impulse passing over the Great Lakes as the other impulse ejects into the Northern High Plains. Over both locations, adequate moisture and instability will be in place to support strong thunderstorms. The best chance for severe thunderstorms will be over the northern High Plains, where stronger vertical wind shear will encourage storm organization. ...Northern into the central High Plains... A belt of strong westerly 500 mb flow will overspread MT into the northern High Plains Saturday afternoon with the passage of the aforementioned mid-level impulse. A surface low will develop somewhere across northern WY into southern MT, promoting moist southeasterly low-level flow beneath the stronger mid-level westerlies, resulting in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Adequate low-level moisture, overspread by 8+ C/km low to mid-level lapse rates, will boost MLCAPE to over 2000 J/kg in spots. The moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will promote supercells and bowing segments capable of producing some severe wind and hail. A tornado is also possible with the longer-lived, dominant supercells. Farther south into the central High Plains, deep-layer ascent and shear should be considerably weaker, resulting in a lower coverage of relatively less organized multicellular clusters. Storms here should be high-based, overspreading a dry boundary layer deepening into the 700-500 mb range by afternoon peak heating. Isolated severe gusts are possible with the stronger multicellular clusters, and an instance or two of severe hail cannot be ruled out. ...Great Lakes into the central Plains... A weak surface cold front, associated with a surface low over the Great Lakes, will progress southeastward across the western Great Lakes into the central Plains as the eastern mid-level impulse glances by to the north. Flow closer to the surface and aloft, and thus vertical wind shear, will not be overly strong ahead of the front. However, rich low-level moisture amid afternoon surface heating will promote 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and minimal convective inhibition. Scattered multicells should develop along/ahead of the front through the afternoon, the stronger storms of which may produce wet downbursts and accompanying isolated damaging gusts. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains tomorrow (Saturday), with hail and wind being the main concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger storms over the Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... Generally zonal mid-level flow will overspread the northern CONUS as an upper trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Saturday). A pair of mid-level impulses will traverse the zonal flow, with one impulse passing over the Great Lakes as the other impulse ejects into the Northern High Plains. Over both locations, adequate moisture and instability will be in place to support strong thunderstorms. The best chance for severe thunderstorms will be over the northern High Plains, where stronger vertical wind shear will encourage storm organization. ...Northern into the central High Plains... A belt of strong westerly 500 mb flow will overspread MT into the northern High Plains Saturday afternoon with the passage of the aforementioned mid-level impulse. A surface low will develop somewhere across northern WY into southern MT, promoting moist southeasterly low-level flow beneath the stronger mid-level westerlies, resulting in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Adequate low-level moisture, overspread by 8+ C/km low to mid-level lapse rates, will boost MLCAPE to over 2000 J/kg in spots. The moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will promote supercells and bowing segments capable of producing some severe wind and hail. A tornado is also possible with the longer-lived, dominant supercells. Farther south into the central High Plains, deep-layer ascent and shear should be considerably weaker, resulting in a lower coverage of relatively less organized multicellular clusters. Storms here should be high-based, overspreading a dry boundary layer deepening into the 700-500 mb range by afternoon peak heating. Isolated severe gusts are possible with the stronger multicellular clusters, and an instance or two of severe hail cannot be ruled out. ...Great Lakes into the central Plains... A weak surface cold front, associated with a surface low over the Great Lakes, will progress southeastward across the western Great Lakes into the central Plains as the eastern mid-level impulse glances by to the north. Flow closer to the surface and aloft, and thus vertical wind shear, will not be overly strong ahead of the front. However, rich low-level moisture amid afternoon surface heating will promote 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and minimal convective inhibition. Scattered multicells should develop along/ahead of the front through the afternoon, the stronger storms of which may produce wet downbursts and accompanying isolated damaging gusts. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with mainly a wind threat are expected this afternoon and evening over parts of the northern/central Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur today from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging initially over the Plains and Upper Midwest this morning should gradually become more positively tilted as it shifts eastward across the Great Lakes/Midwest and MS Valley through the period. Multiple mid-level perturbations will round the upper ridge today, with the most notable shortwave trough advancing eastward from the central Rockies to the northern Plains this afternoon and evening. A separate upper trough/low will move inland across the Pacific Northwest towards the northern Rockies. At the surface, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will reside to the south of a front over the northern Plains, and east of lee troughing along much of the length of the High Plains. The cold front is forecast to make only slow east-southeastward progress across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest through this evening. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Daytime heating should encourage the development of moderate to locally strong MLCAPE along/ahead of the front by early afternoon across the northern Plains. Current expectations are for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop along the length of the surface boundary in the Dakotas as forcing for ascent associated with a mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are not forecast to be overly strong, they should still be sufficient for some updraft organization as thunderstorm clusters merge and potentially develop cold pools. Scattered severe/damaging winds appear probable across parts of eastern ND into northern MN, and a Slight Risk has been introduced for this area given the high concentration of thunderstorms expected. This activity should spread into much of MN through the evening before eventually weakening as it encounters a less unstable airmass with eastward extent. ...Central Plains... Compared to the northern Plains, generally weaker mid-level flow is expected with southward extent across the central High Plains today. Even so, marginally supportive deep-layer shear should aid in modest thunderstorm organization as convection develops along/near the surface lee trough this afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will likely develop in a moderately unstable airmass, with some consolidation/upscale growth possible into the early evening. With steepened low-level lapse rates expected, occasional strong to severe wind gusts may occur with this activity. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... A strong mid-level jet is forecast to overspread parts of the northern Great Basin and Rockies today as an upper trough/low gradually moves inland over the Pacific Northwest. In the wake of morning showers and thunderstorms, renewed convection is anticipated this afternoon from parts of eastern OR into the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Although low-level moisture will remain limited, steepened low-level lapse rates with diurnal heating and enhanced mid-level flow should support at least isolated severe wind potential with any convection that develops and subsequently spreads east-northeastward through the evening. Some potential for marginal supercells and occasional severe hail may also exist given moderate to strong deep-layer expected from parts of eastern OR into ID and western WY vicinity. ..Gleason/Supinie.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with mainly a wind threat are expected this afternoon and evening over parts of the northern/central Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur today from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging initially over the Plains and Upper Midwest this morning should gradually become more positively tilted as it shifts eastward across the Great Lakes/Midwest and MS Valley through the period. Multiple mid-level perturbations will round the upper ridge today, with the most notable shortwave trough advancing eastward from the central Rockies to the northern Plains this afternoon and evening. A separate upper trough/low will move inland across the Pacific Northwest towards the northern Rockies. At the surface, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will reside to the south of a front over the northern Plains, and east of lee troughing along much of the length of the High Plains. The cold front is forecast to make only slow east-southeastward progress across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest through this evening. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Daytime heating should encourage the development of moderate to locally strong MLCAPE along/ahead of the front by early afternoon across the northern Plains. Current expectations are for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop along the length of the surface boundary in the Dakotas as forcing for ascent associated with a mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are not forecast to be overly strong, they should still be sufficient for some updraft organization as thunderstorm clusters merge and potentially develop cold pools. Scattered severe/damaging winds appear probable across parts of eastern ND into northern MN, and a Slight Risk has been introduced for this area given the high concentration of thunderstorms expected. This activity should spread into much of MN through the evening before eventually weakening as it encounters a less unstable airmass with eastward extent. ...Central Plains... Compared to the northern Plains, generally weaker mid-level flow is expected with southward extent across the central High Plains today. Even so, marginally supportive deep-layer shear should aid in modest thunderstorm organization as convection develops along/near the surface lee trough this afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will likely develop in a moderately unstable airmass, with some consolidation/upscale growth possible into the early evening. With steepened low-level lapse rates expected, occasional strong to severe wind gusts may occur with this activity. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... A strong mid-level jet is forecast to overspread parts of the northern Great Basin and Rockies today as an upper trough/low gradually moves inland over the Pacific Northwest. In the wake of morning showers and thunderstorms, renewed convection is anticipated this afternoon from parts of eastern OR into the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Although low-level moisture will remain limited, steepened low-level lapse rates with diurnal heating and enhanced mid-level flow should support at least isolated severe wind potential with any convection that develops and subsequently spreads east-northeastward through the evening. Some potential for marginal supercells and occasional severe hail may also exist given moderate to strong deep-layer expected from parts of eastern OR into ID and western WY vicinity. ..Gleason/Supinie.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with mainly a wind threat are expected this afternoon and evening over parts of the northern/central Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur today from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging initially over the Plains and Upper Midwest this morning should gradually become more positively tilted as it shifts eastward across the Great Lakes/Midwest and MS Valley through the period. Multiple mid-level perturbations will round the upper ridge today, with the most notable shortwave trough advancing eastward from the central Rockies to the northern Plains this afternoon and evening. A separate upper trough/low will move inland across the Pacific Northwest towards the northern Rockies. At the surface, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will reside to the south of a front over the northern Plains, and east of lee troughing along much of the length of the High Plains. The cold front is forecast to make only slow east-southeastward progress across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest through this evening. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Daytime heating should encourage the development of moderate to locally strong MLCAPE along/ahead of the front by early afternoon across the northern Plains. Current expectations are for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop along the length of the surface boundary in the Dakotas as forcing for ascent associated with a mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are not forecast to be overly strong, they should still be sufficient for some updraft organization as thunderstorm clusters merge and potentially develop cold pools. Scattered severe/damaging winds appear probable across parts of eastern ND into northern MN, and a Slight Risk has been introduced for this area given the high concentration of thunderstorms expected. This activity should spread into much of MN through the evening before eventually weakening as it encounters a less unstable airmass with eastward extent. ...Central Plains... Compared to the northern Plains, generally weaker mid-level flow is expected with southward extent across the central High Plains today. Even so, marginally supportive deep-layer shear should aid in modest thunderstorm organization as convection develops along/near the surface lee trough this afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will likely develop in a moderately unstable airmass, with some consolidation/upscale growth possible into the early evening. With steepened low-level lapse rates expected, occasional strong to severe wind gusts may occur with this activity. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... A strong mid-level jet is forecast to overspread parts of the northern Great Basin and Rockies today as an upper trough/low gradually moves inland over the Pacific Northwest. In the wake of morning showers and thunderstorms, renewed convection is anticipated this afternoon from parts of eastern OR into the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Although low-level moisture will remain limited, steepened low-level lapse rates with diurnal heating and enhanced mid-level flow should support at least isolated severe wind potential with any convection that develops and subsequently spreads east-northeastward through the evening. Some potential for marginal supercells and occasional severe hail may also exist given moderate to strong deep-layer expected from parts of eastern OR into ID and western WY vicinity. ..Gleason/Supinie.. 07/04/2025 Read more