Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN UTAH... ...Update... Lightning is ongoing this morning over portions of southeastern and southern OR, and southeastern ID. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are still expected across this region throughout the day, and will spread east and north with time. The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was extended eastward across southern ID, northern UT, and southwestern WY to account for low forecast precipitation amounts (< 0.25") and PWATs less than 0.75". The boundary layer within these regions will remain relatively dry, with mostly inverted-V forecast soundings depicted. Fuels also remain very receptive here. Farther south, from near the Mojave Desert northeastward into southeastern NV and western UT, low RH near 5-15% will combine with breezy southwest winds around 20-35 mph this afternoon. No adjustments were made to the Critical area. However, the Elevated area was extended southward to include Death Valley National Park and Las Vegas, to far northwestern AZ. Although most of this region has limited fuel availability, critical meteorological fire weather conditions are expected to persist for most of the day. ..Barnes.. 07/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the central CONUS, with various shortwave troughs traversing the periphery. One such trough is expected to move across portions of the Great Basin, providing a focus for fire weather concerns through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of southeastern Oregon, where surface moisture will be sufficient for conditional instability to develop. In this environment, inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, low precipitable water, and strong deep-layer shear suggest the potential for dry thunderstorms. Fuels in the region have not received much rainfall recently and therefore should be receptive to lightning ignitions. Farther south across portions of the Great Basin, strong mixing is expected to promote RH in the 5-15% range with strong winds. A Critical area has been maintained across portions of southeast Nevada and southwestern Utah, where a corridor of enhanced surface winds is expected in association with a mid-level jet. This region also has the best overlap with dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN UTAH... ...Update... Lightning is ongoing this morning over portions of southeastern and southern OR, and southeastern ID. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are still expected across this region throughout the day, and will spread east and north with time. The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was extended eastward across southern ID, northern UT, and southwestern WY to account for low forecast precipitation amounts (< 0.25") and PWATs less than 0.75". The boundary layer within these regions will remain relatively dry, with mostly inverted-V forecast soundings depicted. Fuels also remain very receptive here. Farther south, from near the Mojave Desert northeastward into southeastern NV and western UT, low RH near 5-15% will combine with breezy southwest winds around 20-35 mph this afternoon. No adjustments were made to the Critical area. However, the Elevated area was extended southward to include Death Valley National Park and Las Vegas, to far northwestern AZ. Although most of this region has limited fuel availability, critical meteorological fire weather conditions are expected to persist for most of the day. ..Barnes.. 07/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the central CONUS, with various shortwave troughs traversing the periphery. One such trough is expected to move across portions of the Great Basin, providing a focus for fire weather concerns through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of southeastern Oregon, where surface moisture will be sufficient for conditional instability to develop. In this environment, inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, low precipitable water, and strong deep-layer shear suggest the potential for dry thunderstorms. Fuels in the region have not received much rainfall recently and therefore should be receptive to lightning ignitions. Farther south across portions of the Great Basin, strong mixing is expected to promote RH in the 5-15% range with strong winds. A Critical area has been maintained across portions of southeast Nevada and southwestern Utah, where a corridor of enhanced surface winds is expected in association with a mid-level jet. This region also has the best overlap with dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN UTAH... ...Update... Lightning is ongoing this morning over portions of southeastern and southern OR, and southeastern ID. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are still expected across this region throughout the day, and will spread east and north with time. The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was extended eastward across southern ID, northern UT, and southwestern WY to account for low forecast precipitation amounts (< 0.25") and PWATs less than 0.75". The boundary layer within these regions will remain relatively dry, with mostly inverted-V forecast soundings depicted. Fuels also remain very receptive here. Farther south, from near the Mojave Desert northeastward into southeastern NV and western UT, low RH near 5-15% will combine with breezy southwest winds around 20-35 mph this afternoon. No adjustments were made to the Critical area. However, the Elevated area was extended southward to include Death Valley National Park and Las Vegas, to far northwestern AZ. Although most of this region has limited fuel availability, critical meteorological fire weather conditions are expected to persist for most of the day. ..Barnes.. 07/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the central CONUS, with various shortwave troughs traversing the periphery. One such trough is expected to move across portions of the Great Basin, providing a focus for fire weather concerns through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of southeastern Oregon, where surface moisture will be sufficient for conditional instability to develop. In this environment, inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, low precipitable water, and strong deep-layer shear suggest the potential for dry thunderstorms. Fuels in the region have not received much rainfall recently and therefore should be receptive to lightning ignitions. Farther south across portions of the Great Basin, strong mixing is expected to promote RH in the 5-15% range with strong winds. A Critical area has been maintained across portions of southeast Nevada and southwestern Utah, where a corridor of enhanced surface winds is expected in association with a mid-level jet. This region also has the best overlap with dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Upper Midwest into the central High Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicate an upper ridge extends northward from the southern Plains into the Upper Midwest. A notable disturbance is moving northeastward across the central Rockies this morning and into the northern-central Plains by early evening. Lee troughing extending southward from a weak low forecast to migrate east from the Dakotas into MN, is expected to focus thunderstorm activity this afternoon into the evening. Moist southerly low-level flow will maintain a seasonably moist/unstable airmass across the central into the north-central U.S. The latest model guidance shows the strongest buoyancy developing across the Upper Midwest (2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) amidst relatively limited deep-layer shear (generally at or below 30-kt 0-6 km shear). Heating and appreciable forcing for ascent will aid in scattered thunderstorms eventually evolving by the late afternoon into the early evening near the aforementioned wind shift and an eastward-moving cold front over Dakotas/MN vicinity. Severe gusts appear to be the primary hazard, but large hail may accompany the stronger storms. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... A belt of strong 40-50 kt 500-mb flow will move across northern NV into ID through the base of a mid- to upper-level trough/low situated over the Pacific Northwest. IR satellite imagery this morning shows extensive cloudiness immediately ahead of a upper PV anomaly from the NV/ID/OR border northward through much of ID and eastern OR. In the wake of morning showers and a few thunderstorms, additional storm activity is forecast to develop later this afternoon. A locally greater risk for severe may become focused within this broader region from southeast ID and northern UT into far western WY, where 700-500 mb lapse rates are likely to be larger [reference the 12 UTC raobs between Elko, NV (6.3 deg C/km) versus Salt Lake City, UT (8.2 deg C/km)]. Isolated severe gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger storms. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Upper Midwest into the central High Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicate an upper ridge extends northward from the southern Plains into the Upper Midwest. A notable disturbance is moving northeastward across the central Rockies this morning and into the northern-central Plains by early evening. Lee troughing extending southward from a weak low forecast to migrate east from the Dakotas into MN, is expected to focus thunderstorm activity this afternoon into the evening. Moist southerly low-level flow will maintain a seasonably moist/unstable airmass across the central into the north-central U.S. The latest model guidance shows the strongest buoyancy developing across the Upper Midwest (2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) amidst relatively limited deep-layer shear (generally at or below 30-kt 0-6 km shear). Heating and appreciable forcing for ascent will aid in scattered thunderstorms eventually evolving by the late afternoon into the early evening near the aforementioned wind shift and an eastward-moving cold front over Dakotas/MN vicinity. Severe gusts appear to be the primary hazard, but large hail may accompany the stronger storms. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... A belt of strong 40-50 kt 500-mb flow will move across northern NV into ID through the base of a mid- to upper-level trough/low situated over the Pacific Northwest. IR satellite imagery this morning shows extensive cloudiness immediately ahead of a upper PV anomaly from the NV/ID/OR border northward through much of ID and eastern OR. In the wake of morning showers and a few thunderstorms, additional storm activity is forecast to develop later this afternoon. A locally greater risk for severe may become focused within this broader region from southeast ID and northern UT into far western WY, where 700-500 mb lapse rates are likely to be larger [reference the 12 UTC raobs between Elko, NV (6.3 deg C/km) versus Salt Lake City, UT (8.2 deg C/km)]. Isolated severe gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger storms. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Upper Midwest into the central High Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicate an upper ridge extends northward from the southern Plains into the Upper Midwest. A notable disturbance is moving northeastward across the central Rockies this morning and into the northern-central Plains by early evening. Lee troughing extending southward from a weak low forecast to migrate east from the Dakotas into MN, is expected to focus thunderstorm activity this afternoon into the evening. Moist southerly low-level flow will maintain a seasonably moist/unstable airmass across the central into the north-central U.S. The latest model guidance shows the strongest buoyancy developing across the Upper Midwest (2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) amidst relatively limited deep-layer shear (generally at or below 30-kt 0-6 km shear). Heating and appreciable forcing for ascent will aid in scattered thunderstorms eventually evolving by the late afternoon into the early evening near the aforementioned wind shift and an eastward-moving cold front over Dakotas/MN vicinity. Severe gusts appear to be the primary hazard, but large hail may accompany the stronger storms. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... A belt of strong 40-50 kt 500-mb flow will move across northern NV into ID through the base of a mid- to upper-level trough/low situated over the Pacific Northwest. IR satellite imagery this morning shows extensive cloudiness immediately ahead of a upper PV anomaly from the NV/ID/OR border northward through much of ID and eastern OR. In the wake of morning showers and a few thunderstorms, additional storm activity is forecast to develop later this afternoon. A locally greater risk for severe may become focused within this broader region from southeast ID and northern UT into far western WY, where 700-500 mb lapse rates are likely to be larger [reference the 12 UTC raobs between Elko, NV (6.3 deg C/km) versus Salt Lake City, UT (8.2 deg C/km)]. Isolated severe gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger storms. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Upper Midwest into the central High Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicate an upper ridge extends northward from the southern Plains into the Upper Midwest. A notable disturbance is moving northeastward across the central Rockies this morning and into the northern-central Plains by early evening. Lee troughing extending southward from a weak low forecast to migrate east from the Dakotas into MN, is expected to focus thunderstorm activity this afternoon into the evening. Moist southerly low-level flow will maintain a seasonably moist/unstable airmass across the central into the north-central U.S. The latest model guidance shows the strongest buoyancy developing across the Upper Midwest (2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) amidst relatively limited deep-layer shear (generally at or below 30-kt 0-6 km shear). Heating and appreciable forcing for ascent will aid in scattered thunderstorms eventually evolving by the late afternoon into the early evening near the aforementioned wind shift and an eastward-moving cold front over Dakotas/MN vicinity. Severe gusts appear to be the primary hazard, but large hail may accompany the stronger storms. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... A belt of strong 40-50 kt 500-mb flow will move across northern NV into ID through the base of a mid- to upper-level trough/low situated over the Pacific Northwest. IR satellite imagery this morning shows extensive cloudiness immediately ahead of a upper PV anomaly from the NV/ID/OR border northward through much of ID and eastern OR. In the wake of morning showers and a few thunderstorms, additional storm activity is forecast to develop later this afternoon. A locally greater risk for severe may become focused within this broader region from southeast ID and northern UT into far western WY, where 700-500 mb lapse rates are likely to be larger [reference the 12 UTC raobs between Elko, NV (6.3 deg C/km) versus Salt Lake City, UT (8.2 deg C/km)]. Isolated severe gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger storms. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/04/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will gradually build over the Southwest while mainly zonal mid-level flow persists over the northern CONUS through next week. A relatively nebulous surface pattern will be the norm through the extended range. Rich low-level moisture will overspread the CONUS east of the Rockies Days 4-8/next Monday-Friday, supporting scattered thunderstorm development over much of the Great Plains into the MS Valley, and the Southeast into the Northeast. The best chance for at least isolated strong to potentially severe storms in the upcoming week would be across the north-central CONUS. Here, the low-level moisture will advect northward beneath relatively cooler temperatures and modest northwesterly flow/shear aloft. However, given the nebulous and weakly forced environment, confidence is too low to delineate severe probabilities over the north-central U.S. for any given day. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will gradually build over the Southwest while mainly zonal mid-level flow persists over the northern CONUS through next week. A relatively nebulous surface pattern will be the norm through the extended range. Rich low-level moisture will overspread the CONUS east of the Rockies Days 4-8/next Monday-Friday, supporting scattered thunderstorm development over much of the Great Plains into the MS Valley, and the Southeast into the Northeast. The best chance for at least isolated strong to potentially severe storms in the upcoming week would be across the north-central CONUS. Here, the low-level moisture will advect northward beneath relatively cooler temperatures and modest northwesterly flow/shear aloft. However, given the nebulous and weakly forced environment, confidence is too low to delineate severe probabilities over the north-central U.S. for any given day. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will gradually build over the Southwest while mainly zonal mid-level flow persists over the northern CONUS through next week. A relatively nebulous surface pattern will be the norm through the extended range. Rich low-level moisture will overspread the CONUS east of the Rockies Days 4-8/next Monday-Friday, supporting scattered thunderstorm development over much of the Great Plains into the MS Valley, and the Southeast into the Northeast. The best chance for at least isolated strong to potentially severe storms in the upcoming week would be across the north-central CONUS. Here, the low-level moisture will advect northward beneath relatively cooler temperatures and modest northwesterly flow/shear aloft. However, given the nebulous and weakly forced environment, confidence is too low to delineate severe probabilities over the north-central U.S. for any given day. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will gradually build over the Southwest while mainly zonal mid-level flow persists over the northern CONUS through next week. A relatively nebulous surface pattern will be the norm through the extended range. Rich low-level moisture will overspread the CONUS east of the Rockies Days 4-8/next Monday-Friday, supporting scattered thunderstorm development over much of the Great Plains into the MS Valley, and the Southeast into the Northeast. The best chance for at least isolated strong to potentially severe storms in the upcoming week would be across the north-central CONUS. Here, the low-level moisture will advect northward beneath relatively cooler temperatures and modest northwesterly flow/shear aloft. However, given the nebulous and weakly forced environment, confidence is too low to delineate severe probabilities over the north-central U.S. for any given day. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will gradually build over the Southwest while mainly zonal mid-level flow persists over the northern CONUS through next week. A relatively nebulous surface pattern will be the norm through the extended range. Rich low-level moisture will overspread the CONUS east of the Rockies Days 4-8/next Monday-Friday, supporting scattered thunderstorm development over much of the Great Plains into the MS Valley, and the Southeast into the Northeast. The best chance for at least isolated strong to potentially severe storms in the upcoming week would be across the north-central CONUS. Here, the low-level moisture will advect northward beneath relatively cooler temperatures and modest northwesterly flow/shear aloft. However, given the nebulous and weakly forced environment, confidence is too low to delineate severe probabilities over the north-central U.S. for any given day. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce isolated severe wind and hail along the central High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Zonal upper flow, with multiple embedded mid-level impulses, will become established over the northern CONUS as an upper trough continues to meander along the CA coastline on Sunday. A weak surface trough will become established over the Northeast while a relatively nebulous surface pattern will characterize much of the remaining CONUS. Widespread rich low-level moisture, amid an uncapped airmass, is expected across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies on Sunday afternoon, supporting thunderstorm development across the Great Plains into parts of the Great Lakes/MS Valley and toward the Carolina Piedmont. Weak upslope flow along the central High Plains, beneath cooler temperatures aloft, will promote adequate instability amid modest vertical wind shear to support an isolated severe threat. ...Central High Plains... By Sunday afternoon peak heating, low 60s F surface dewpoints will advect northwestward across western NE into eastern CO and WY, beneath 8.5 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates, promoting over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE over several locales. By early evening, modest 500 mb westerlies will overspread a 25 kt south-southeasterly low-level jet across the central High Plains, resulting in up to 40 kts of effective bulk shear. There is an appreciable chance for a few of the stronger storms to organize into multicells and supercells, especially across northeastern CO into western NE, where the best buoyancy/shear overlap should occur. Isolated severe hail and wind are the main threats, though a tornado could not be ruled out, especially if a sustained supercell can develop. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce isolated severe wind and hail along the central High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Zonal upper flow, with multiple embedded mid-level impulses, will become established over the northern CONUS as an upper trough continues to meander along the CA coastline on Sunday. A weak surface trough will become established over the Northeast while a relatively nebulous surface pattern will characterize much of the remaining CONUS. Widespread rich low-level moisture, amid an uncapped airmass, is expected across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies on Sunday afternoon, supporting thunderstorm development across the Great Plains into parts of the Great Lakes/MS Valley and toward the Carolina Piedmont. Weak upslope flow along the central High Plains, beneath cooler temperatures aloft, will promote adequate instability amid modest vertical wind shear to support an isolated severe threat. ...Central High Plains... By Sunday afternoon peak heating, low 60s F surface dewpoints will advect northwestward across western NE into eastern CO and WY, beneath 8.5 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates, promoting over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE over several locales. By early evening, modest 500 mb westerlies will overspread a 25 kt south-southeasterly low-level jet across the central High Plains, resulting in up to 40 kts of effective bulk shear. There is an appreciable chance for a few of the stronger storms to organize into multicells and supercells, especially across northeastern CO into western NE, where the best buoyancy/shear overlap should occur. Isolated severe hail and wind are the main threats, though a tornado could not be ruled out, especially if a sustained supercell can develop. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce isolated severe wind and hail along the central High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Zonal upper flow, with multiple embedded mid-level impulses, will become established over the northern CONUS as an upper trough continues to meander along the CA coastline on Sunday. A weak surface trough will become established over the Northeast while a relatively nebulous surface pattern will characterize much of the remaining CONUS. Widespread rich low-level moisture, amid an uncapped airmass, is expected across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies on Sunday afternoon, supporting thunderstorm development across the Great Plains into parts of the Great Lakes/MS Valley and toward the Carolina Piedmont. Weak upslope flow along the central High Plains, beneath cooler temperatures aloft, will promote adequate instability amid modest vertical wind shear to support an isolated severe threat. ...Central High Plains... By Sunday afternoon peak heating, low 60s F surface dewpoints will advect northwestward across western NE into eastern CO and WY, beneath 8.5 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates, promoting over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE over several locales. By early evening, modest 500 mb westerlies will overspread a 25 kt south-southeasterly low-level jet across the central High Plains, resulting in up to 40 kts of effective bulk shear. There is an appreciable chance for a few of the stronger storms to organize into multicells and supercells, especially across northeastern CO into western NE, where the best buoyancy/shear overlap should occur. Isolated severe hail and wind are the main threats, though a tornado could not be ruled out, especially if a sustained supercell can develop. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce isolated severe wind and hail along the central High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Zonal upper flow, with multiple embedded mid-level impulses, will become established over the northern CONUS as an upper trough continues to meander along the CA coastline on Sunday. A weak surface trough will become established over the Northeast while a relatively nebulous surface pattern will characterize much of the remaining CONUS. Widespread rich low-level moisture, amid an uncapped airmass, is expected across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies on Sunday afternoon, supporting thunderstorm development across the Great Plains into parts of the Great Lakes/MS Valley and toward the Carolina Piedmont. Weak upslope flow along the central High Plains, beneath cooler temperatures aloft, will promote adequate instability amid modest vertical wind shear to support an isolated severe threat. ...Central High Plains... By Sunday afternoon peak heating, low 60s F surface dewpoints will advect northwestward across western NE into eastern CO and WY, beneath 8.5 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates, promoting over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE over several locales. By early evening, modest 500 mb westerlies will overspread a 25 kt south-southeasterly low-level jet across the central High Plains, resulting in up to 40 kts of effective bulk shear. There is an appreciable chance for a few of the stronger storms to organize into multicells and supercells, especially across northeastern CO into western NE, where the best buoyancy/shear overlap should occur. Isolated severe hail and wind are the main threats, though a tornado could not be ruled out, especially if a sustained supercell can develop. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce isolated severe wind and hail along the central High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Zonal upper flow, with multiple embedded mid-level impulses, will become established over the northern CONUS as an upper trough continues to meander along the CA coastline on Sunday. A weak surface trough will become established over the Northeast while a relatively nebulous surface pattern will characterize much of the remaining CONUS. Widespread rich low-level moisture, amid an uncapped airmass, is expected across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies on Sunday afternoon, supporting thunderstorm development across the Great Plains into parts of the Great Lakes/MS Valley and toward the Carolina Piedmont. Weak upslope flow along the central High Plains, beneath cooler temperatures aloft, will promote adequate instability amid modest vertical wind shear to support an isolated severe threat. ...Central High Plains... By Sunday afternoon peak heating, low 60s F surface dewpoints will advect northwestward across western NE into eastern CO and WY, beneath 8.5 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates, promoting over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE over several locales. By early evening, modest 500 mb westerlies will overspread a 25 kt south-southeasterly low-level jet across the central High Plains, resulting in up to 40 kts of effective bulk shear. There is an appreciable chance for a few of the stronger storms to organize into multicells and supercells, especially across northeastern CO into western NE, where the best buoyancy/shear overlap should occur. Isolated severe hail and wind are the main threats, though a tornado could not be ruled out, especially if a sustained supercell can develop. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2025 Read more

MD 1558 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 485... FOR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1558 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Areas affected...Northern North Dakota...Far Northwest Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 485... Valid 040614Z - 040815Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 485 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue for a few more hours from northern North Dakota into far northwest Minnesota. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. A watch extension of 1 to 2 hours could be needed as the 07Z expiration of WW 485 approaches. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar across the northern Plains shows a line of strong thunderstorms located near the North-Dakota-Canada border, to the northwest of Grand Forks. Short-term model forecasts suggest the line will move eastward along the border for a few more hours, and will likely affect far northeast North Dakota and far northwest Minnesota. This line is located along a sharp gradient of moderate instability, which combined with 25 to 30 knot of 0-6 km shear evident on the Grand Forks WSR-88D VWP, should support an isolated wind-damage and hail threat. Further to the west-southwest, a relatively isolated severe storm is ongoing to the west of Minot, North Dakota. This storm is located along an axis of moderate instability, with the RAP estimating MLCAPE near 2000 J/Kg. The storm is likely being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a subtle shortwave trough moving through western North Dakota. RAP mesoscale analysis currently shows a pocket of very steep low to mid-level lapse rates over much of North Dakota, where 850 to 500 mb lapse rates are in the 7.5 to 8 C/Km range. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear should support a wind-damage threat over the next couple of hours. ..Broyles/Smith.. 07/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 48339642 48159753 48009871 47850037 47800147 48030186 48300182 48580166 48840119 48930041 48989817 49009725 48959660 48829631 48589624 48339642 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge is expected to build over the southern Rockies during the day on Sunday. Modest mid-level flow around the periphery of the ridge is expected to mix downward during the afternoon hours and promote dry, breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. RH is expected to be in the 5-15% range across much of this region with gusts to 15-20 mph. However, across the northern Rockies recent rainfall has made fuels largely too moist for fire spread. Therefore, have added an Elevated area across portions of southeastern Nevada and southwestern Utah, where the driest fuels overlap with the corridor of strongest winds. ..Supinie.. 07/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge is expected to build over the southern Rockies during the day on Sunday. Modest mid-level flow around the periphery of the ridge is expected to mix downward during the afternoon hours and promote dry, breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. RH is expected to be in the 5-15% range across much of this region with gusts to 15-20 mph. However, across the northern Rockies recent rainfall has made fuels largely too moist for fire spread. Therefore, have added an Elevated area across portions of southeastern Nevada and southwestern Utah, where the driest fuels overlap with the corridor of strongest winds. ..Supinie.. 07/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more