Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Central High Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging from the Lower MS Valley into western Ontario, with several disturbances along the periphery of this ridge. The shortwave trough currently moving through the central Rockies/central High Plains will be the most impactful for today's severe potential as it continues northeastward towards the very moist airmass in place across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Current surface observations reveal a large reservoir of dewpoints greater than 68 deg F across the northern/central Plains, with higher dewpoints (70+ deg F) farther northeastward across the Upper MS Valley. Strong heating is anticipated over the region, particularly the Upper Midwest, destabilizing the airmass by the early afternoon and contributing to strong to very strong buoyancy. Low-level convergence along a southeastward-progressing cold front, as well as along expected pre-frontal troughing, will augment large-scale ascent provided by the approaching shortwave. All of this lift will provide the impetus for convective initiation. Initial development appears most likely in the early afternoon (i.e. around 18Z) over northeast/eastern CO, NE Panhandle/western NE, and western KS. Vertical shear and buoyancy will be modest in this region, limiting storm strength and organization. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates and moderately high cloud bases could result in a few strong gusts. A relatively greater severe potential exists farther north over the eastern Dakotas into northern/central MN. Here, strong buoyancy (i.e. 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE) is expected by the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be relatively modest, but the strong buoyancy should support robust updrafts capable of precipitation loading and water-loaded downbursts. Given the limited shear and progressive cold front, a quick transition to an outflow-dominant, linear structure is anticipated. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line as well. Isolated large hail could occur with the strongest, early-stage cellular storms. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... Extensive cloud cover has begun to clear from south to north as a lead shortwave trough progresses through the region. Secondary shortwave trough currently moving through northern CA is expected to progress eastward/northeastward into the region later this afternoon, fostering additional storm development this afternoon. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 40-45 kt at 500 mb) will persist, supporting the potential for a few stronger/more organized updrafts. A locally greater severe wind risk may materialize across southern ID and northern UT where stronger heating and deeper mixing is anticipated. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Central High Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging from the Lower MS Valley into western Ontario, with several disturbances along the periphery of this ridge. The shortwave trough currently moving through the central Rockies/central High Plains will be the most impactful for today's severe potential as it continues northeastward towards the very moist airmass in place across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Current surface observations reveal a large reservoir of dewpoints greater than 68 deg F across the northern/central Plains, with higher dewpoints (70+ deg F) farther northeastward across the Upper MS Valley. Strong heating is anticipated over the region, particularly the Upper Midwest, destabilizing the airmass by the early afternoon and contributing to strong to very strong buoyancy. Low-level convergence along a southeastward-progressing cold front, as well as along expected pre-frontal troughing, will augment large-scale ascent provided by the approaching shortwave. All of this lift will provide the impetus for convective initiation. Initial development appears most likely in the early afternoon (i.e. around 18Z) over northeast/eastern CO, NE Panhandle/western NE, and western KS. Vertical shear and buoyancy will be modest in this region, limiting storm strength and organization. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates and moderately high cloud bases could result in a few strong gusts. A relatively greater severe potential exists farther north over the eastern Dakotas into northern/central MN. Here, strong buoyancy (i.e. 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE) is expected by the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be relatively modest, but the strong buoyancy should support robust updrafts capable of precipitation loading and water-loaded downbursts. Given the limited shear and progressive cold front, a quick transition to an outflow-dominant, linear structure is anticipated. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line as well. Isolated large hail could occur with the strongest, early-stage cellular storms. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... Extensive cloud cover has begun to clear from south to north as a lead shortwave trough progresses through the region. Secondary shortwave trough currently moving through northern CA is expected to progress eastward/northeastward into the region later this afternoon, fostering additional storm development this afternoon. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 40-45 kt at 500 mb) will persist, supporting the potential for a few stronger/more organized updrafts. A locally greater severe wind risk may materialize across southern ID and northern UT where stronger heating and deeper mixing is anticipated. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Central High Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging from the Lower MS Valley into western Ontario, with several disturbances along the periphery of this ridge. The shortwave trough currently moving through the central Rockies/central High Plains will be the most impactful for today's severe potential as it continues northeastward towards the very moist airmass in place across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Current surface observations reveal a large reservoir of dewpoints greater than 68 deg F across the northern/central Plains, with higher dewpoints (70+ deg F) farther northeastward across the Upper MS Valley. Strong heating is anticipated over the region, particularly the Upper Midwest, destabilizing the airmass by the early afternoon and contributing to strong to very strong buoyancy. Low-level convergence along a southeastward-progressing cold front, as well as along expected pre-frontal troughing, will augment large-scale ascent provided by the approaching shortwave. All of this lift will provide the impetus for convective initiation. Initial development appears most likely in the early afternoon (i.e. around 18Z) over northeast/eastern CO, NE Panhandle/western NE, and western KS. Vertical shear and buoyancy will be modest in this region, limiting storm strength and organization. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates and moderately high cloud bases could result in a few strong gusts. A relatively greater severe potential exists farther north over the eastern Dakotas into northern/central MN. Here, strong buoyancy (i.e. 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE) is expected by the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be relatively modest, but the strong buoyancy should support robust updrafts capable of precipitation loading and water-loaded downbursts. Given the limited shear and progressive cold front, a quick transition to an outflow-dominant, linear structure is anticipated. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line as well. Isolated large hail could occur with the strongest, early-stage cellular storms. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... Extensive cloud cover has begun to clear from south to north as a lead shortwave trough progresses through the region. Secondary shortwave trough currently moving through northern CA is expected to progress eastward/northeastward into the region later this afternoon, fostering additional storm development this afternoon. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 40-45 kt at 500 mb) will persist, supporting the potential for a few stronger/more organized updrafts. A locally greater severe wind risk may materialize across southern ID and northern UT where stronger heating and deeper mixing is anticipated. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Central High Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging from the Lower MS Valley into western Ontario, with several disturbances along the periphery of this ridge. The shortwave trough currently moving through the central Rockies/central High Plains will be the most impactful for today's severe potential as it continues northeastward towards the very moist airmass in place across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Current surface observations reveal a large reservoir of dewpoints greater than 68 deg F across the northern/central Plains, with higher dewpoints (70+ deg F) farther northeastward across the Upper MS Valley. Strong heating is anticipated over the region, particularly the Upper Midwest, destabilizing the airmass by the early afternoon and contributing to strong to very strong buoyancy. Low-level convergence along a southeastward-progressing cold front, as well as along expected pre-frontal troughing, will augment large-scale ascent provided by the approaching shortwave. All of this lift will provide the impetus for convective initiation. Initial development appears most likely in the early afternoon (i.e. around 18Z) over northeast/eastern CO, NE Panhandle/western NE, and western KS. Vertical shear and buoyancy will be modest in this region, limiting storm strength and organization. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates and moderately high cloud bases could result in a few strong gusts. A relatively greater severe potential exists farther north over the eastern Dakotas into northern/central MN. Here, strong buoyancy (i.e. 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE) is expected by the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be relatively modest, but the strong buoyancy should support robust updrafts capable of precipitation loading and water-loaded downbursts. Given the limited shear and progressive cold front, a quick transition to an outflow-dominant, linear structure is anticipated. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line as well. Isolated large hail could occur with the strongest, early-stage cellular storms. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... Extensive cloud cover has begun to clear from south to north as a lead shortwave trough progresses through the region. Secondary shortwave trough currently moving through northern CA is expected to progress eastward/northeastward into the region later this afternoon, fostering additional storm development this afternoon. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 40-45 kt at 500 mb) will persist, supporting the potential for a few stronger/more organized updrafts. A locally greater severe wind risk may materialize across southern ID and northern UT where stronger heating and deeper mixing is anticipated. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Central High Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging from the Lower MS Valley into western Ontario, with several disturbances along the periphery of this ridge. The shortwave trough currently moving through the central Rockies/central High Plains will be the most impactful for today's severe potential as it continues northeastward towards the very moist airmass in place across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Current surface observations reveal a large reservoir of dewpoints greater than 68 deg F across the northern/central Plains, with higher dewpoints (70+ deg F) farther northeastward across the Upper MS Valley. Strong heating is anticipated over the region, particularly the Upper Midwest, destabilizing the airmass by the early afternoon and contributing to strong to very strong buoyancy. Low-level convergence along a southeastward-progressing cold front, as well as along expected pre-frontal troughing, will augment large-scale ascent provided by the approaching shortwave. All of this lift will provide the impetus for convective initiation. Initial development appears most likely in the early afternoon (i.e. around 18Z) over northeast/eastern CO, NE Panhandle/western NE, and western KS. Vertical shear and buoyancy will be modest in this region, limiting storm strength and organization. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates and moderately high cloud bases could result in a few strong gusts. A relatively greater severe potential exists farther north over the eastern Dakotas into northern/central MN. Here, strong buoyancy (i.e. 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE) is expected by the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be relatively modest, but the strong buoyancy should support robust updrafts capable of precipitation loading and water-loaded downbursts. Given the limited shear and progressive cold front, a quick transition to an outflow-dominant, linear structure is anticipated. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line as well. Isolated large hail could occur with the strongest, early-stage cellular storms. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... Extensive cloud cover has begun to clear from south to north as a lead shortwave trough progresses through the region. Secondary shortwave trough currently moving through northern CA is expected to progress eastward/northeastward into the region later this afternoon, fostering additional storm development this afternoon. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 40-45 kt at 500 mb) will persist, supporting the potential for a few stronger/more organized updrafts. A locally greater severe wind risk may materialize across southern ID and northern UT where stronger heating and deeper mixing is anticipated. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Central High Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging from the Lower MS Valley into western Ontario, with several disturbances along the periphery of this ridge. The shortwave trough currently moving through the central Rockies/central High Plains will be the most impactful for today's severe potential as it continues northeastward towards the very moist airmass in place across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Current surface observations reveal a large reservoir of dewpoints greater than 68 deg F across the northern/central Plains, with higher dewpoints (70+ deg F) farther northeastward across the Upper MS Valley. Strong heating is anticipated over the region, particularly the Upper Midwest, destabilizing the airmass by the early afternoon and contributing to strong to very strong buoyancy. Low-level convergence along a southeastward-progressing cold front, as well as along expected pre-frontal troughing, will augment large-scale ascent provided by the approaching shortwave. All of this lift will provide the impetus for convective initiation. Initial development appears most likely in the early afternoon (i.e. around 18Z) over northeast/eastern CO, NE Panhandle/western NE, and western KS. Vertical shear and buoyancy will be modest in this region, limiting storm strength and organization. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates and moderately high cloud bases could result in a few strong gusts. A relatively greater severe potential exists farther north over the eastern Dakotas into northern/central MN. Here, strong buoyancy (i.e. 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE) is expected by the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be relatively modest, but the strong buoyancy should support robust updrafts capable of precipitation loading and water-loaded downbursts. Given the limited shear and progressive cold front, a quick transition to an outflow-dominant, linear structure is anticipated. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line as well. Isolated large hail could occur with the strongest, early-stage cellular storms. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... Extensive cloud cover has begun to clear from south to north as a lead shortwave trough progresses through the region. Secondary shortwave trough currently moving through northern CA is expected to progress eastward/northeastward into the region later this afternoon, fostering additional storm development this afternoon. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 40-45 kt at 500 mb) will persist, supporting the potential for a few stronger/more organized updrafts. A locally greater severe wind risk may materialize across southern ID and northern UT where stronger heating and deeper mixing is anticipated. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Central High Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging from the Lower MS Valley into western Ontario, with several disturbances along the periphery of this ridge. The shortwave trough currently moving through the central Rockies/central High Plains will be the most impactful for today's severe potential as it continues northeastward towards the very moist airmass in place across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Current surface observations reveal a large reservoir of dewpoints greater than 68 deg F across the northern/central Plains, with higher dewpoints (70+ deg F) farther northeastward across the Upper MS Valley. Strong heating is anticipated over the region, particularly the Upper Midwest, destabilizing the airmass by the early afternoon and contributing to strong to very strong buoyancy. Low-level convergence along a southeastward-progressing cold front, as well as along expected pre-frontal troughing, will augment large-scale ascent provided by the approaching shortwave. All of this lift will provide the impetus for convective initiation. Initial development appears most likely in the early afternoon (i.e. around 18Z) over northeast/eastern CO, NE Panhandle/western NE, and western KS. Vertical shear and buoyancy will be modest in this region, limiting storm strength and organization. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates and moderately high cloud bases could result in a few strong gusts. A relatively greater severe potential exists farther north over the eastern Dakotas into northern/central MN. Here, strong buoyancy (i.e. 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE) is expected by the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be relatively modest, but the strong buoyancy should support robust updrafts capable of precipitation loading and water-loaded downbursts. Given the limited shear and progressive cold front, a quick transition to an outflow-dominant, linear structure is anticipated. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line as well. Isolated large hail could occur with the strongest, early-stage cellular storms. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... Extensive cloud cover has begun to clear from south to north as a lead shortwave trough progresses through the region. Secondary shortwave trough currently moving through northern CA is expected to progress eastward/northeastward into the region later this afternoon, fostering additional storm development this afternoon. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 40-45 kt at 500 mb) will persist, supporting the potential for a few stronger/more organized updrafts. A locally greater severe wind risk may materialize across southern ID and northern UT where stronger heating and deeper mixing is anticipated. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Central High Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging from the Lower MS Valley into western Ontario, with several disturbances along the periphery of this ridge. The shortwave trough currently moving through the central Rockies/central High Plains will be the most impactful for today's severe potential as it continues northeastward towards the very moist airmass in place across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Current surface observations reveal a large reservoir of dewpoints greater than 68 deg F across the northern/central Plains, with higher dewpoints (70+ deg F) farther northeastward across the Upper MS Valley. Strong heating is anticipated over the region, particularly the Upper Midwest, destabilizing the airmass by the early afternoon and contributing to strong to very strong buoyancy. Low-level convergence along a southeastward-progressing cold front, as well as along expected pre-frontal troughing, will augment large-scale ascent provided by the approaching shortwave. All of this lift will provide the impetus for convective initiation. Initial development appears most likely in the early afternoon (i.e. around 18Z) over northeast/eastern CO, NE Panhandle/western NE, and western KS. Vertical shear and buoyancy will be modest in this region, limiting storm strength and organization. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates and moderately high cloud bases could result in a few strong gusts. A relatively greater severe potential exists farther north over the eastern Dakotas into northern/central MN. Here, strong buoyancy (i.e. 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE) is expected by the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be relatively modest, but the strong buoyancy should support robust updrafts capable of precipitation loading and water-loaded downbursts. Given the limited shear and progressive cold front, a quick transition to an outflow-dominant, linear structure is anticipated. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line as well. Isolated large hail could occur with the strongest, early-stage cellular storms. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... Extensive cloud cover has begun to clear from south to north as a lead shortwave trough progresses through the region. Secondary shortwave trough currently moving through northern CA is expected to progress eastward/northeastward into the region later this afternoon, fostering additional storm development this afternoon. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 40-45 kt at 500 mb) will persist, supporting the potential for a few stronger/more organized updrafts. A locally greater severe wind risk may materialize across southern ID and northern UT where stronger heating and deeper mixing is anticipated. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Central High Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging from the Lower MS Valley into western Ontario, with several disturbances along the periphery of this ridge. The shortwave trough currently moving through the central Rockies/central High Plains will be the most impactful for today's severe potential as it continues northeastward towards the very moist airmass in place across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Current surface observations reveal a large reservoir of dewpoints greater than 68 deg F across the northern/central Plains, with higher dewpoints (70+ deg F) farther northeastward across the Upper MS Valley. Strong heating is anticipated over the region, particularly the Upper Midwest, destabilizing the airmass by the early afternoon and contributing to strong to very strong buoyancy. Low-level convergence along a southeastward-progressing cold front, as well as along expected pre-frontal troughing, will augment large-scale ascent provided by the approaching shortwave. All of this lift will provide the impetus for convective initiation. Initial development appears most likely in the early afternoon (i.e. around 18Z) over northeast/eastern CO, NE Panhandle/western NE, and western KS. Vertical shear and buoyancy will be modest in this region, limiting storm strength and organization. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates and moderately high cloud bases could result in a few strong gusts. A relatively greater severe potential exists farther north over the eastern Dakotas into northern/central MN. Here, strong buoyancy (i.e. 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE) is expected by the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be relatively modest, but the strong buoyancy should support robust updrafts capable of precipitation loading and water-loaded downbursts. Given the limited shear and progressive cold front, a quick transition to an outflow-dominant, linear structure is anticipated. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line as well. Isolated large hail could occur with the strongest, early-stage cellular storms. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... Extensive cloud cover has begun to clear from south to north as a lead shortwave trough progresses through the region. Secondary shortwave trough currently moving through northern CA is expected to progress eastward/northeastward into the region later this afternoon, fostering additional storm development this afternoon. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 40-45 kt at 500 mb) will persist, supporting the potential for a few stronger/more organized updrafts. A locally greater severe wind risk may materialize across southern ID and northern UT where stronger heating and deeper mixing is anticipated. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN UTAH... ...Update... Lightning is ongoing this morning over portions of southeastern and southern OR, and southeastern ID. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are still expected across this region throughout the day, and will spread east and north with time. The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was extended eastward across southern ID, northern UT, and southwestern WY to account for low forecast precipitation amounts (< 0.25") and PWATs less than 0.75". The boundary layer within these regions will remain relatively dry, with mostly inverted-V forecast soundings depicted. Fuels also remain very receptive here. Farther south, from near the Mojave Desert northeastward into southeastern NV and western UT, low RH near 5-15% will combine with breezy southwest winds around 20-35 mph this afternoon. No adjustments were made to the Critical area. However, the Elevated area was extended southward to include Death Valley National Park and Las Vegas, to far northwestern AZ. Although most of this region has limited fuel availability, critical meteorological fire weather conditions are expected to persist for most of the day. ..Barnes.. 07/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the central CONUS, with various shortwave troughs traversing the periphery. One such trough is expected to move across portions of the Great Basin, providing a focus for fire weather concerns through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of southeastern Oregon, where surface moisture will be sufficient for conditional instability to develop. In this environment, inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, low precipitable water, and strong deep-layer shear suggest the potential for dry thunderstorms. Fuels in the region have not received much rainfall recently and therefore should be receptive to lightning ignitions. Farther south across portions of the Great Basin, strong mixing is expected to promote RH in the 5-15% range with strong winds. A Critical area has been maintained across portions of southeast Nevada and southwestern Utah, where a corridor of enhanced surface winds is expected in association with a mid-level jet. This region also has the best overlap with dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN UTAH... ...Update... Lightning is ongoing this morning over portions of southeastern and southern OR, and southeastern ID. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are still expected across this region throughout the day, and will spread east and north with time. The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was extended eastward across southern ID, northern UT, and southwestern WY to account for low forecast precipitation amounts (< 0.25") and PWATs less than 0.75". The boundary layer within these regions will remain relatively dry, with mostly inverted-V forecast soundings depicted. Fuels also remain very receptive here. Farther south, from near the Mojave Desert northeastward into southeastern NV and western UT, low RH near 5-15% will combine with breezy southwest winds around 20-35 mph this afternoon. No adjustments were made to the Critical area. However, the Elevated area was extended southward to include Death Valley National Park and Las Vegas, to far northwestern AZ. Although most of this region has limited fuel availability, critical meteorological fire weather conditions are expected to persist for most of the day. ..Barnes.. 07/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the central CONUS, with various shortwave troughs traversing the periphery. One such trough is expected to move across portions of the Great Basin, providing a focus for fire weather concerns through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of southeastern Oregon, where surface moisture will be sufficient for conditional instability to develop. In this environment, inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, low precipitable water, and strong deep-layer shear suggest the potential for dry thunderstorms. Fuels in the region have not received much rainfall recently and therefore should be receptive to lightning ignitions. Farther south across portions of the Great Basin, strong mixing is expected to promote RH in the 5-15% range with strong winds. A Critical area has been maintained across portions of southeast Nevada and southwestern Utah, where a corridor of enhanced surface winds is expected in association with a mid-level jet. This region also has the best overlap with dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN UTAH... ...Update... Lightning is ongoing this morning over portions of southeastern and southern OR, and southeastern ID. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are still expected across this region throughout the day, and will spread east and north with time. The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was extended eastward across southern ID, northern UT, and southwestern WY to account for low forecast precipitation amounts (< 0.25") and PWATs less than 0.75". The boundary layer within these regions will remain relatively dry, with mostly inverted-V forecast soundings depicted. Fuels also remain very receptive here. Farther south, from near the Mojave Desert northeastward into southeastern NV and western UT, low RH near 5-15% will combine with breezy southwest winds around 20-35 mph this afternoon. No adjustments were made to the Critical area. However, the Elevated area was extended southward to include Death Valley National Park and Las Vegas, to far northwestern AZ. Although most of this region has limited fuel availability, critical meteorological fire weather conditions are expected to persist for most of the day. ..Barnes.. 07/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the central CONUS, with various shortwave troughs traversing the periphery. One such trough is expected to move across portions of the Great Basin, providing a focus for fire weather concerns through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of southeastern Oregon, where surface moisture will be sufficient for conditional instability to develop. In this environment, inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, low precipitable water, and strong deep-layer shear suggest the potential for dry thunderstorms. Fuels in the region have not received much rainfall recently and therefore should be receptive to lightning ignitions. Farther south across portions of the Great Basin, strong mixing is expected to promote RH in the 5-15% range with strong winds. A Critical area has been maintained across portions of southeast Nevada and southwestern Utah, where a corridor of enhanced surface winds is expected in association with a mid-level jet. This region also has the best overlap with dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN UTAH... ...Update... Lightning is ongoing this morning over portions of southeastern and southern OR, and southeastern ID. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are still expected across this region throughout the day, and will spread east and north with time. The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was extended eastward across southern ID, northern UT, and southwestern WY to account for low forecast precipitation amounts (< 0.25") and PWATs less than 0.75". The boundary layer within these regions will remain relatively dry, with mostly inverted-V forecast soundings depicted. Fuels also remain very receptive here. Farther south, from near the Mojave Desert northeastward into southeastern NV and western UT, low RH near 5-15% will combine with breezy southwest winds around 20-35 mph this afternoon. No adjustments were made to the Critical area. However, the Elevated area was extended southward to include Death Valley National Park and Las Vegas, to far northwestern AZ. Although most of this region has limited fuel availability, critical meteorological fire weather conditions are expected to persist for most of the day. ..Barnes.. 07/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the central CONUS, with various shortwave troughs traversing the periphery. One such trough is expected to move across portions of the Great Basin, providing a focus for fire weather concerns through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of southeastern Oregon, where surface moisture will be sufficient for conditional instability to develop. In this environment, inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, low precipitable water, and strong deep-layer shear suggest the potential for dry thunderstorms. Fuels in the region have not received much rainfall recently and therefore should be receptive to lightning ignitions. Farther south across portions of the Great Basin, strong mixing is expected to promote RH in the 5-15% range with strong winds. A Critical area has been maintained across portions of southeast Nevada and southwestern Utah, where a corridor of enhanced surface winds is expected in association with a mid-level jet. This region also has the best overlap with dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN UTAH... ...Update... Lightning is ongoing this morning over portions of southeastern and southern OR, and southeastern ID. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are still expected across this region throughout the day, and will spread east and north with time. The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was extended eastward across southern ID, northern UT, and southwestern WY to account for low forecast precipitation amounts (< 0.25") and PWATs less than 0.75". The boundary layer within these regions will remain relatively dry, with mostly inverted-V forecast soundings depicted. Fuels also remain very receptive here. Farther south, from near the Mojave Desert northeastward into southeastern NV and western UT, low RH near 5-15% will combine with breezy southwest winds around 20-35 mph this afternoon. No adjustments were made to the Critical area. However, the Elevated area was extended southward to include Death Valley National Park and Las Vegas, to far northwestern AZ. Although most of this region has limited fuel availability, critical meteorological fire weather conditions are expected to persist for most of the day. ..Barnes.. 07/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the central CONUS, with various shortwave troughs traversing the periphery. One such trough is expected to move across portions of the Great Basin, providing a focus for fire weather concerns through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of southeastern Oregon, where surface moisture will be sufficient for conditional instability to develop. In this environment, inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, low precipitable water, and strong deep-layer shear suggest the potential for dry thunderstorms. Fuels in the region have not received much rainfall recently and therefore should be receptive to lightning ignitions. Farther south across portions of the Great Basin, strong mixing is expected to promote RH in the 5-15% range with strong winds. A Critical area has been maintained across portions of southeast Nevada and southwestern Utah, where a corridor of enhanced surface winds is expected in association with a mid-level jet. This region also has the best overlap with dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN UTAH... ...Update... Lightning is ongoing this morning over portions of southeastern and southern OR, and southeastern ID. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are still expected across this region throughout the day, and will spread east and north with time. The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was extended eastward across southern ID, northern UT, and southwestern WY to account for low forecast precipitation amounts (< 0.25") and PWATs less than 0.75". The boundary layer within these regions will remain relatively dry, with mostly inverted-V forecast soundings depicted. Fuels also remain very receptive here. Farther south, from near the Mojave Desert northeastward into southeastern NV and western UT, low RH near 5-15% will combine with breezy southwest winds around 20-35 mph this afternoon. No adjustments were made to the Critical area. However, the Elevated area was extended southward to include Death Valley National Park and Las Vegas, to far northwestern AZ. Although most of this region has limited fuel availability, critical meteorological fire weather conditions are expected to persist for most of the day. ..Barnes.. 07/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the central CONUS, with various shortwave troughs traversing the periphery. One such trough is expected to move across portions of the Great Basin, providing a focus for fire weather concerns through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of southeastern Oregon, where surface moisture will be sufficient for conditional instability to develop. In this environment, inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, low precipitable water, and strong deep-layer shear suggest the potential for dry thunderstorms. Fuels in the region have not received much rainfall recently and therefore should be receptive to lightning ignitions. Farther south across portions of the Great Basin, strong mixing is expected to promote RH in the 5-15% range with strong winds. A Critical area has been maintained across portions of southeast Nevada and southwestern Utah, where a corridor of enhanced surface winds is expected in association with a mid-level jet. This region also has the best overlap with dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN UTAH... ...Update... Lightning is ongoing this morning over portions of southeastern and southern OR, and southeastern ID. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are still expected across this region throughout the day, and will spread east and north with time. The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was extended eastward across southern ID, northern UT, and southwestern WY to account for low forecast precipitation amounts (< 0.25") and PWATs less than 0.75". The boundary layer within these regions will remain relatively dry, with mostly inverted-V forecast soundings depicted. Fuels also remain very receptive here. Farther south, from near the Mojave Desert northeastward into southeastern NV and western UT, low RH near 5-15% will combine with breezy southwest winds around 20-35 mph this afternoon. No adjustments were made to the Critical area. However, the Elevated area was extended southward to include Death Valley National Park and Las Vegas, to far northwestern AZ. Although most of this region has limited fuel availability, critical meteorological fire weather conditions are expected to persist for most of the day. ..Barnes.. 07/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the central CONUS, with various shortwave troughs traversing the periphery. One such trough is expected to move across portions of the Great Basin, providing a focus for fire weather concerns through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of southeastern Oregon, where surface moisture will be sufficient for conditional instability to develop. In this environment, inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, low precipitable water, and strong deep-layer shear suggest the potential for dry thunderstorms. Fuels in the region have not received much rainfall recently and therefore should be receptive to lightning ignitions. Farther south across portions of the Great Basin, strong mixing is expected to promote RH in the 5-15% range with strong winds. A Critical area has been maintained across portions of southeast Nevada and southwestern Utah, where a corridor of enhanced surface winds is expected in association with a mid-level jet. This region also has the best overlap with dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN UTAH... ...Update... Lightning is ongoing this morning over portions of southeastern and southern OR, and southeastern ID. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are still expected across this region throughout the day, and will spread east and north with time. The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was extended eastward across southern ID, northern UT, and southwestern WY to account for low forecast precipitation amounts (< 0.25") and PWATs less than 0.75". The boundary layer within these regions will remain relatively dry, with mostly inverted-V forecast soundings depicted. Fuels also remain very receptive here. Farther south, from near the Mojave Desert northeastward into southeastern NV and western UT, low RH near 5-15% will combine with breezy southwest winds around 20-35 mph this afternoon. No adjustments were made to the Critical area. However, the Elevated area was extended southward to include Death Valley National Park and Las Vegas, to far northwestern AZ. Although most of this region has limited fuel availability, critical meteorological fire weather conditions are expected to persist for most of the day. ..Barnes.. 07/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the central CONUS, with various shortwave troughs traversing the periphery. One such trough is expected to move across portions of the Great Basin, providing a focus for fire weather concerns through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of southeastern Oregon, where surface moisture will be sufficient for conditional instability to develop. In this environment, inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, low precipitable water, and strong deep-layer shear suggest the potential for dry thunderstorms. Fuels in the region have not received much rainfall recently and therefore should be receptive to lightning ignitions. Farther south across portions of the Great Basin, strong mixing is expected to promote RH in the 5-15% range with strong winds. A Critical area has been maintained across portions of southeast Nevada and southwestern Utah, where a corridor of enhanced surface winds is expected in association with a mid-level jet. This region also has the best overlap with dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN UTAH... ...Update... Lightning is ongoing this morning over portions of southeastern and southern OR, and southeastern ID. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are still expected across this region throughout the day, and will spread east and north with time. The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was extended eastward across southern ID, northern UT, and southwestern WY to account for low forecast precipitation amounts (< 0.25") and PWATs less than 0.75". The boundary layer within these regions will remain relatively dry, with mostly inverted-V forecast soundings depicted. Fuels also remain very receptive here. Farther south, from near the Mojave Desert northeastward into southeastern NV and western UT, low RH near 5-15% will combine with breezy southwest winds around 20-35 mph this afternoon. No adjustments were made to the Critical area. However, the Elevated area was extended southward to include Death Valley National Park and Las Vegas, to far northwestern AZ. Although most of this region has limited fuel availability, critical meteorological fire weather conditions are expected to persist for most of the day. ..Barnes.. 07/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the central CONUS, with various shortwave troughs traversing the periphery. One such trough is expected to move across portions of the Great Basin, providing a focus for fire weather concerns through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of southeastern Oregon, where surface moisture will be sufficient for conditional instability to develop. In this environment, inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, low precipitable water, and strong deep-layer shear suggest the potential for dry thunderstorms. Fuels in the region have not received much rainfall recently and therefore should be receptive to lightning ignitions. Farther south across portions of the Great Basin, strong mixing is expected to promote RH in the 5-15% range with strong winds. A Critical area has been maintained across portions of southeast Nevada and southwestern Utah, where a corridor of enhanced surface winds is expected in association with a mid-level jet. This region also has the best overlap with dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN UTAH... ...Update... Lightning is ongoing this morning over portions of southeastern and southern OR, and southeastern ID. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are still expected across this region throughout the day, and will spread east and north with time. The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was extended eastward across southern ID, northern UT, and southwestern WY to account for low forecast precipitation amounts (< 0.25") and PWATs less than 0.75". The boundary layer within these regions will remain relatively dry, with mostly inverted-V forecast soundings depicted. Fuels also remain very receptive here. Farther south, from near the Mojave Desert northeastward into southeastern NV and western UT, low RH near 5-15% will combine with breezy southwest winds around 20-35 mph this afternoon. No adjustments were made to the Critical area. However, the Elevated area was extended southward to include Death Valley National Park and Las Vegas, to far northwestern AZ. Although most of this region has limited fuel availability, critical meteorological fire weather conditions are expected to persist for most of the day. ..Barnes.. 07/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the central CONUS, with various shortwave troughs traversing the periphery. One such trough is expected to move across portions of the Great Basin, providing a focus for fire weather concerns through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of southeastern Oregon, where surface moisture will be sufficient for conditional instability to develop. In this environment, inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, low precipitable water, and strong deep-layer shear suggest the potential for dry thunderstorms. Fuels in the region have not received much rainfall recently and therefore should be receptive to lightning ignitions. Farther south across portions of the Great Basin, strong mixing is expected to promote RH in the 5-15% range with strong winds. A Critical area has been maintained across portions of southeast Nevada and southwestern Utah, where a corridor of enhanced surface winds is expected in association with a mid-level jet. This region also has the best overlap with dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN UTAH... ...Update... Lightning is ongoing this morning over portions of southeastern and southern OR, and southeastern ID. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are still expected across this region throughout the day, and will spread east and north with time. The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was extended eastward across southern ID, northern UT, and southwestern WY to account for low forecast precipitation amounts (< 0.25") and PWATs less than 0.75". The boundary layer within these regions will remain relatively dry, with mostly inverted-V forecast soundings depicted. Fuels also remain very receptive here. Farther south, from near the Mojave Desert northeastward into southeastern NV and western UT, low RH near 5-15% will combine with breezy southwest winds around 20-35 mph this afternoon. No adjustments were made to the Critical area. However, the Elevated area was extended southward to include Death Valley National Park and Las Vegas, to far northwestern AZ. Although most of this region has limited fuel availability, critical meteorological fire weather conditions are expected to persist for most of the day. ..Barnes.. 07/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the central CONUS, with various shortwave troughs traversing the periphery. One such trough is expected to move across portions of the Great Basin, providing a focus for fire weather concerns through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of southeastern Oregon, where surface moisture will be sufficient for conditional instability to develop. In this environment, inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, low precipitable water, and strong deep-layer shear suggest the potential for dry thunderstorms. Fuels in the region have not received much rainfall recently and therefore should be receptive to lightning ignitions. Farther south across portions of the Great Basin, strong mixing is expected to promote RH in the 5-15% range with strong winds. A Critical area has been maintained across portions of southeast Nevada and southwestern Utah, where a corridor of enhanced surface winds is expected in association with a mid-level jet. This region also has the best overlap with dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more