Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...Update... The latest high resolution model guidance suggests wind speeds may be slightly higher just outside the bounds of the Elevated area. Therefore, a slight modification was made to extend it east and southward. Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged for today. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build across the southern Rockies through the day. A weak 700 mb jet around the northwestern periphery of the ridge is expected to mix downward amid strong surface heating and provide a focus for fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin. Winds may gust to 20-25 mph with 5-15% RH during the afternoon. Therefore, an Elevated highlight has been maintained across portions of southeastern Nevada and southwestern Utah where these atmospheric conditions overlap with dry fuels that have not received wetting rain recently. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...Update... The latest high resolution model guidance suggests wind speeds may be slightly higher just outside the bounds of the Elevated area. Therefore, a slight modification was made to extend it east and southward. Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged for today. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build across the southern Rockies through the day. A weak 700 mb jet around the northwestern periphery of the ridge is expected to mix downward amid strong surface heating and provide a focus for fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin. Winds may gust to 20-25 mph with 5-15% RH during the afternoon. Therefore, an Elevated highlight has been maintained across portions of southeastern Nevada and southwestern Utah where these atmospheric conditions overlap with dry fuels that have not received wetting rain recently. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...Update... The latest high resolution model guidance suggests wind speeds may be slightly higher just outside the bounds of the Elevated area. Therefore, a slight modification was made to extend it east and southward. Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged for today. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build across the southern Rockies through the day. A weak 700 mb jet around the northwestern periphery of the ridge is expected to mix downward amid strong surface heating and provide a focus for fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin. Winds may gust to 20-25 mph with 5-15% RH during the afternoon. Therefore, an Elevated highlight has been maintained across portions of southeastern Nevada and southwestern Utah where these atmospheric conditions overlap with dry fuels that have not received wetting rain recently. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...Update... The latest high resolution model guidance suggests wind speeds may be slightly higher just outside the bounds of the Elevated area. Therefore, a slight modification was made to extend it east and southward. Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged for today. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build across the southern Rockies through the day. A weak 700 mb jet around the northwestern periphery of the ridge is expected to mix downward amid strong surface heating and provide a focus for fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin. Winds may gust to 20-25 mph with 5-15% RH during the afternoon. Therefore, an Elevated highlight has been maintained across portions of southeastern Nevada and southwestern Utah where these atmospheric conditions overlap with dry fuels that have not received wetting rain recently. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...Update... The latest high resolution model guidance suggests wind speeds may be slightly higher just outside the bounds of the Elevated area. Therefore, a slight modification was made to extend it east and southward. Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged for today. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build across the southern Rockies through the day. A weak 700 mb jet around the northwestern periphery of the ridge is expected to mix downward amid strong surface heating and provide a focus for fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin. Winds may gust to 20-25 mph with 5-15% RH during the afternoon. Therefore, an Elevated highlight has been maintained across portions of southeastern Nevada and southwestern Utah where these atmospheric conditions overlap with dry fuels that have not received wetting rain recently. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...Update... The latest high resolution model guidance suggests wind speeds may be slightly higher just outside the bounds of the Elevated area. Therefore, a slight modification was made to extend it east and southward. Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged for today. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build across the southern Rockies through the day. A weak 700 mb jet around the northwestern periphery of the ridge is expected to mix downward amid strong surface heating and provide a focus for fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin. Winds may gust to 20-25 mph with 5-15% RH during the afternoon. Therefore, an Elevated highlight has been maintained across portions of southeastern Nevada and southwestern Utah where these atmospheric conditions overlap with dry fuels that have not received wetting rain recently. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...Update... The latest high resolution model guidance suggests wind speeds may be slightly higher just outside the bounds of the Elevated area. Therefore, a slight modification was made to extend it east and southward. Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged for today. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build across the southern Rockies through the day. A weak 700 mb jet around the northwestern periphery of the ridge is expected to mix downward amid strong surface heating and provide a focus for fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin. Winds may gust to 20-25 mph with 5-15% RH during the afternoon. Therefore, an Elevated highlight has been maintained across portions of southeastern Nevada and southwestern Utah where these atmospheric conditions overlap with dry fuels that have not received wetting rain recently. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...Update... The latest high resolution model guidance suggests wind speeds may be slightly higher just outside the bounds of the Elevated area. Therefore, a slight modification was made to extend it east and southward. Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged for today. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build across the southern Rockies through the day. A weak 700 mb jet around the northwestern periphery of the ridge is expected to mix downward amid strong surface heating and provide a focus for fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin. Winds may gust to 20-25 mph with 5-15% RH during the afternoon. Therefore, an Elevated highlight has been maintained across portions of southeastern Nevada and southwestern Utah where these atmospheric conditions overlap with dry fuels that have not received wetting rain recently. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jul 5 16:05:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies, spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass. Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage. ...CO/KS... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this scenario. ...SC/NC... Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes. ..Hart/Jirak.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies, spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass. Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage. ...CO/KS... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this scenario. ...SC/NC... Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes. ..Hart/Jirak.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies, spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass. Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage. ...CO/KS... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this scenario. ...SC/NC... Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes. ..Hart/Jirak.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies, spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass. Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage. ...CO/KS... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this scenario. ...SC/NC... Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes. ..Hart/Jirak.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies, spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass. Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage. ...CO/KS... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this scenario. ...SC/NC... Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes. ..Hart/Jirak.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies, spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass. Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage. ...CO/KS... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this scenario. ...SC/NC... Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes. ..Hart/Jirak.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies, spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass. Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage. ...CO/KS... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this scenario. ...SC/NC... Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes. ..Hart/Jirak.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies, spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass. Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage. ...CO/KS... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this scenario. ...SC/NC... Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes. ..Hart/Jirak.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING AND EXTREME NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe gusts ranging from 60-85 mph and large to very large hail are the primary hazards. ...Northern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. A belt of 40-50 kt 500-mb flow will move east from ID across southern MT and northern WY through the late evening. In the low levels, surface low pressure will develop over central WY today to the south of a high centered over SK/MB, aiding in maintaining an easterly component to low-level flow across southern MT. The northern periphery of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will be atop a destabilizing boundary layer and will contribute to moderate buoyancy. As large-scale ascent overspreads south-central MT by early to mid afternoon coincident with eroding convective inhibition, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Ample deep-layer flow will favor a few supercells with the early activity as storms mature/organize. An eastward-moving cluster is forecast to evolve (supported by recent CAM guidance) during the early evening, with a potential swath of severe gusts focused over southeast MT into adjacent parts of WY/SD. As storms move farther east, less buoyancy will tend to limit the severe risk with east extent into parts of the Dakotas. ...Central-Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon into the evening in the vicinity of a lee trough over the central High Plains and farther south closer to the Raton Mesa. A relatively moist and moderately unstable airmass (~1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) will support vigorous updrafts mainly in the form of multicells and small clusters. This activity will likely spread east-southeastward into the evening hours. Severe gusts and perhaps large hail may accompany the more intense storms. ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... A separate midlevel trough will move eastward across the Upper Midwest, while a related cold front advances southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Lower MO Valley during the day. Despite poor midlevel lapse rates, rich boundary-layer moisture and a belt of enhanced low/midlevel flow will support a few strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts along/ahead of the front. ...Carolina coast... The low-level wind profile is forecast to gradually strengthen concurrent with the approach of Tropical Storm Chantal (see the National Hurricane Center for the latest details regarding Chantal's forecast track). By the evening, hodographs begin to substantially enlarge near the coast and the influx of richer low-level moisture (mid 70s F surface dewpoints) are expected to infiltrate the immediate coast. As such, a few transient supercells are possible with an accompanying low risk for a tornado---mainly during the overnight. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING AND EXTREME NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe gusts ranging from 60-85 mph and large to very large hail are the primary hazards. ...Northern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. A belt of 40-50 kt 500-mb flow will move east from ID across southern MT and northern WY through the late evening. In the low levels, surface low pressure will develop over central WY today to the south of a high centered over SK/MB, aiding in maintaining an easterly component to low-level flow across southern MT. The northern periphery of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will be atop a destabilizing boundary layer and will contribute to moderate buoyancy. As large-scale ascent overspreads south-central MT by early to mid afternoon coincident with eroding convective inhibition, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Ample deep-layer flow will favor a few supercells with the early activity as storms mature/organize. An eastward-moving cluster is forecast to evolve (supported by recent CAM guidance) during the early evening, with a potential swath of severe gusts focused over southeast MT into adjacent parts of WY/SD. As storms move farther east, less buoyancy will tend to limit the severe risk with east extent into parts of the Dakotas. ...Central-Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon into the evening in the vicinity of a lee trough over the central High Plains and farther south closer to the Raton Mesa. A relatively moist and moderately unstable airmass (~1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) will support vigorous updrafts mainly in the form of multicells and small clusters. This activity will likely spread east-southeastward into the evening hours. Severe gusts and perhaps large hail may accompany the more intense storms. ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... A separate midlevel trough will move eastward across the Upper Midwest, while a related cold front advances southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Lower MO Valley during the day. Despite poor midlevel lapse rates, rich boundary-layer moisture and a belt of enhanced low/midlevel flow will support a few strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts along/ahead of the front. ...Carolina coast... The low-level wind profile is forecast to gradually strengthen concurrent with the approach of Tropical Storm Chantal (see the National Hurricane Center for the latest details regarding Chantal's forecast track). By the evening, hodographs begin to substantially enlarge near the coast and the influx of richer low-level moisture (mid 70s F surface dewpoints) are expected to infiltrate the immediate coast. As such, a few transient supercells are possible with an accompanying low risk for a tornado---mainly during the overnight. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING AND EXTREME NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe gusts ranging from 60-85 mph and large to very large hail are the primary hazards. ...Northern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. A belt of 40-50 kt 500-mb flow will move east from ID across southern MT and northern WY through the late evening. In the low levels, surface low pressure will develop over central WY today to the south of a high centered over SK/MB, aiding in maintaining an easterly component to low-level flow across southern MT. The northern periphery of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will be atop a destabilizing boundary layer and will contribute to moderate buoyancy. As large-scale ascent overspreads south-central MT by early to mid afternoon coincident with eroding convective inhibition, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Ample deep-layer flow will favor a few supercells with the early activity as storms mature/organize. An eastward-moving cluster is forecast to evolve (supported by recent CAM guidance) during the early evening, with a potential swath of severe gusts focused over southeast MT into adjacent parts of WY/SD. As storms move farther east, less buoyancy will tend to limit the severe risk with east extent into parts of the Dakotas. ...Central-Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon into the evening in the vicinity of a lee trough over the central High Plains and farther south closer to the Raton Mesa. A relatively moist and moderately unstable airmass (~1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) will support vigorous updrafts mainly in the form of multicells and small clusters. This activity will likely spread east-southeastward into the evening hours. Severe gusts and perhaps large hail may accompany the more intense storms. ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... A separate midlevel trough will move eastward across the Upper Midwest, while a related cold front advances southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Lower MO Valley during the day. Despite poor midlevel lapse rates, rich boundary-layer moisture and a belt of enhanced low/midlevel flow will support a few strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts along/ahead of the front. ...Carolina coast... The low-level wind profile is forecast to gradually strengthen concurrent with the approach of Tropical Storm Chantal (see the National Hurricane Center for the latest details regarding Chantal's forecast track). By the evening, hodographs begin to substantially enlarge near the coast and the influx of richer low-level moisture (mid 70s F surface dewpoints) are expected to infiltrate the immediate coast. As such, a few transient supercells are possible with an accompanying low risk for a tornado---mainly during the overnight. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/05/2025 Read more