Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts will continue this evening over the Upper Midwest. Isolated severe gusts and hail may occur over the central High Plains, with severe gusts also possible from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Upper Midwest... Ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough tracking eastward from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, a broken band of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing across parts of northern MN. Ahead of these storms, a warm/moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints) is yielding moderately unstable inflow, while 30-40 kt of mostly front-parallel deep-layer shear (per recent VWP data) is promoting some cold pool organization. As these storms continue spreading/developing eastward this evening, damaging wind gusts will remain possible prior to increasing nocturnal inhibition. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch #486 for more information. ...Central High Plains... A cluster of organized storms is evolving eastward across western KS -- ahead of a lee trough/lee cyclone over the CO/KS border. The DDC 00Z sounding sampled a moderately unstable air mass and around 30 kt of effective shear (with ample low-level hodograph curvature). This environment should continue to support organized multicell clusters and embedded supercell structures capable of producing severe wind gusts and isolated large hail for the next few hours. For additional information, see MCD #1565. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts will continue this evening over the Upper Midwest. Isolated severe gusts and hail may occur over the central High Plains, with severe gusts also possible from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Upper Midwest... Ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough tracking eastward from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, a broken band of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing across parts of northern MN. Ahead of these storms, a warm/moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints) is yielding moderately unstable inflow, while 30-40 kt of mostly front-parallel deep-layer shear (per recent VWP data) is promoting some cold pool organization. As these storms continue spreading/developing eastward this evening, damaging wind gusts will remain possible prior to increasing nocturnal inhibition. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch #486 for more information. ...Central High Plains... A cluster of organized storms is evolving eastward across western KS -- ahead of a lee trough/lee cyclone over the CO/KS border. The DDC 00Z sounding sampled a moderately unstable air mass and around 30 kt of effective shear (with ample low-level hodograph curvature). This environment should continue to support organized multicell clusters and embedded supercell structures capable of producing severe wind gusts and isolated large hail for the next few hours. For additional information, see MCD #1565. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2025 Read more

MD 1565 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1565 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Areas affected...portions of southwestern Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 050031Z - 050200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Multicells and weak supercells may produce large hail and damaging gusts across portions of southwestern Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. A watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Storms have congealed into multicell clusters with a weak supercell just east of the Kansas/Colorado border. With surface dewpoints generally in the upper 60s F in the region, these storms are in a relative maximum in instability with 2100 J/kg MLCAPE per the 00Z DDC RAOB. The VAD wind profile and 00Z RAOB from DDC also shows some low-level flow with 30 kt southerlies at 1 km AGL. With the ongoing supercell and any other transient supercells that can develop in the strong thermodynamic environment, some severe hail is possible. With time, additional clustering of cold pools may occur, and storms may transition to a wind damage threat, though diurnally increasing inhibition may limit the longevity of any severe threat as sunset approaches. Due to the temporally limited nature of the threat, a watch is not anticipated. ..Supinie/Gleason.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA... LAT...LON 36850041 36880152 37130195 37540200 38410200 38690188 39140077 39320002 38909912 37349946 36850041 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0486 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 486 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW VVV TO 25 WNW BJI TO 45 NNE ELO. ..SPC..07/05/25 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 486 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-005-007-011-017-021-029-035-051-057-061-075-087-111-137- 155-159-050140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BECKER BELTRAMI BIG STONE CARLTON CASS CLEARWATER CROW WING GRANT HUBBARD ITASCA LAKE MAHNOMEN OTTER TAIL ST. LOUIS TRAVERSE WADENA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0486 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 486 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW VVV TO 25 WNW BJI TO 45 NNE ELO. ..SPC..07/05/25 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 486 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-005-007-011-017-021-029-035-051-057-061-075-087-111-137- 155-159-050140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BECKER BELTRAMI BIG STONE CARLTON CASS CLEARWATER CROW WING GRANT HUBBARD ITASCA LAKE MAHNOMEN OTTER TAIL ST. LOUIS TRAVERSE WADENA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 486 SEVERE TSTM MN ND SD 041900Z - 050200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 486 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Minnesota Eastern North Dakota Northeastern South Dakota * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon along a cold front arcing across northern MN, eastern ND, and north-central SD. Strong buoyancy is in place ahead of this front, fostering the potential for robust updrafts. Vertical shear is modest across much of the area, which could limit storm organization and promote a quick transition to a mostly linear mode. The only exception is across north-central/northeast MN where vertical shear should remain strong enough to support stronger, more organized storm structures. Damaging gusts are the primary risk, but isolated large to very large hail is also possible, particularly over north-central/northeast MN. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles south of Jamestown ND to 25 miles north northeast of Ely MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Mosier Read more

MD 1563 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 486... FOR EASTERN DAKOTAS...NORTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1563 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0509 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Dakotas...northern Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 486... Valid 042209Z - 050015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 486 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across ww486 this evening. DISCUSSION...Upper ridge is gradually shifting east across the MS Valley. This is permitting a higher PW plume over the Plains/northern MN to gradually advance across the upper Red River region into the main body of ww486. Latest radar data suggests a very weak MCV may be embedded within a more elongated corridor of convection, just east of Jamestown ND, but this feature is subtle. With temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90F across convective-free areas, ample buoyancy is available for both the east-west, and north-south corridors to eventually advance across the remainder of the watch through the mid-evening hours. Hail and wind remain possible with this activity. ..Darrow.. 07/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 47369867 49399165 47079166 45059868 47369867 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1564 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING...SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1564 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0549 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Wyoming...southwestern South Dakota...western Nebraska...and northeastern Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 042249Z - 050015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Occasional severe gusts and marginally severe hail are possible this evening across portions of eastern Wyoming, southwestern South Dakota, western Nebraska, and northeastern Colorado. A watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...A weak shortwave trough across the High Plains has triggered storms across the region. These storms have moved off of the higher terrain of Wyoming and Colorado eastward onto the Plains. Relatively weak flow aloft means convection has organized into multicell clusters and line segments in an environment with a modestly dry boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates. All these factors mean these storms have a risk for severe gusts, particularly with the more intense clusters of storms. Some marginally severe hail is also possible, but the weak deep-layer shear may limit the hail threat. Due to the sparse coverage of convection, a watch is not anticipated. ..Supinie/Gleason.. 07/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39850300 40170376 40810412 41560466 42390541 43690573 44310486 44110356 43050210 42360139 41470128 40640149 40250177 40030209 39850300 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1564 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING...SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1564 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0549 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Wyoming...southwestern South Dakota...western Nebraska...and northeastern Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 042249Z - 050015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Occasional severe gusts and marginally severe hail are possible this evening across portions of eastern Wyoming, southwestern South Dakota, western Nebraska, and northeastern Colorado. A watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...A weak shortwave trough across the High Plains has triggered storms across the region. These storms have moved off of the higher terrain of Wyoming and Colorado eastward onto the Plains. Relatively weak flow aloft means convection has organized into multicell clusters and line segments in an environment with a modestly dry boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates. All these factors mean these storms have a risk for severe gusts, particularly with the more intense clusters of storms. Some marginally severe hail is also possible, but the weak deep-layer shear may limit the hail threat. Due to the sparse coverage of convection, a watch is not anticipated. ..Supinie/Gleason.. 07/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39850300 40170376 40810412 41560466 42390541 43690573 44310486 44110356 43050210 42360139 41470128 40640149 40250177 40030209 39850300 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1563 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 486... FOR EASTERN DAKOTAS...NORTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1563 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0509 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Dakotas...northern Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 486... Valid 042209Z - 050015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 486 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across ww486 this evening. DISCUSSION...Upper ridge is gradually shifting east across the MS Valley. This is permitting a higher PW plume over the Plains/northern MN to gradually advance across the upper Red River region into the main body of ww486. Latest radar data suggests a very weak MCV may be embedded within a more elongated corridor of convection, just east of Jamestown ND, but this feature is subtle. With temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90F across convective-free areas, ample buoyancy is available for both the east-west, and north-south corridors to eventually advance across the remainder of the watch through the mid-evening hours. Hail and wind remain possible with this activity. ..Darrow.. 07/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 47369867 49399165 47079166 45059868 47369867 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0486 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 486 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE ABR TO 15 NE FAR TO 15 ENE TVF. ..SPC..07/04/25 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 486 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-005-007-011-017-021-027-029-035-051-057-061-071-075-077- 087-107-111-113-119-125-137-155-159-167-050040- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BECKER BELTRAMI BIG STONE CARLTON CASS CLAY CLEARWATER CROW WING GRANT HUBBARD ITASCA KOOCHICHING LAKE LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN NORMAN OTTER TAIL PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE ST. LOUIS TRAVERSE WADENA WILKIN NDC077-050040- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RICHLAND Read more

WW 486 SEVERE TSTM MN ND SD 041900Z - 050200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 486 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Minnesota Eastern North Dakota Northeastern South Dakota * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon along a cold front arcing across northern MN, eastern ND, and north-central SD. Strong buoyancy is in place ahead of this front, fostering the potential for robust updrafts. Vertical shear is modest across much of the area, which could limit storm organization and promote a quick transition to a mostly linear mode. The only exception is across north-central/northeast MN where vertical shear should remain strong enough to support stronger, more organized storm structures. Damaging gusts are the primary risk, but isolated large to very large hail is also possible, particularly over north-central/northeast MN. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles south of Jamestown ND to 25 miles north northeast of Ely MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0486 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 486 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW ABR TO 55 NNE ABR TO 40 W FAR TO 45 ENE JMS TO 15 N JMS. ..SPC..07/04/25 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 486 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-005-007-011-017-021-027-029-035-051-057-061-071-075-077- 087-089-107-111-113-119-125-137-155-159-167-042340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BECKER BELTRAMI BIG STONE CARLTON CASS CLAY CLEARWATER CROW WING GRANT HUBBARD ITASCA KOOCHICHING LAKE LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN MARSHALL NORMAN OTTER TAIL PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE ST. LOUIS TRAVERSE WADENA WILKIN NDC017-031-035-039-073-077-081-091-097-042340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS FOSTER GRAND FORKS GRIGGS RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT STEELE TRAILL Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jul 4 21:50:12 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... By Day 3/Sunday, the mid-level shortwave trough responsible for ongoing thunderstorms across the northern Rockies will move into the northern Great Plains. Quasi-zonal flow is expected over the rest of the northern CONUS, while subtropical ridging impacts the Southern Plains and Southwest. Farther west off the central CA coastline, a mid to upper-level cyclone is anticipated to meander near this region for a couple of days and then slowly progress north-northeastward towards northern CA by Day5/Tuesday. ...Day 5/Tuesday... Increasing mid to low-level flow is expected to develop Day 5/Tuesday over the Great Basin region as the height gradient tightens in association with the approaching CA cyclone. Very warm and dry atmospheric profiles are expected for several days preceding this feature, which will aid in even more receptive fuels being available by this time. Extended ensemble model guidance and high confidence in a deeply mixed boundary layer suggest there is now enough evidence to introduce low critical probabilities for breezy winds and low RH across eastern NV and western UT Day 5/Tuesday. ..Barnes.. 07/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... By Day 3/Sunday, the mid-level shortwave trough responsible for ongoing thunderstorms across the northern Rockies will move into the northern Great Plains. Quasi-zonal flow is expected over the rest of the northern CONUS, while subtropical ridging impacts the Southern Plains and Southwest. Farther west off the central CA coastline, a mid to upper-level cyclone is anticipated to meander near this region for a couple of days and then slowly progress north-northeastward towards northern CA by Day5/Tuesday. ...Day 5/Tuesday... Increasing mid to low-level flow is expected to develop Day 5/Tuesday over the Great Basin region as the height gradient tightens in association with the approaching CA cyclone. Very warm and dry atmospheric profiles are expected for several days preceding this feature, which will aid in even more receptive fuels being available by this time. Extended ensemble model guidance and high confidence in a deeply mixed boundary layer suggest there is now enough evidence to introduce low critical probabilities for breezy winds and low RH across eastern NV and western UT Day 5/Tuesday. ..Barnes.. 07/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... By Day 3/Sunday, the mid-level shortwave trough responsible for ongoing thunderstorms across the northern Rockies will move into the northern Great Plains. Quasi-zonal flow is expected over the rest of the northern CONUS, while subtropical ridging impacts the Southern Plains and Southwest. Farther west off the central CA coastline, a mid to upper-level cyclone is anticipated to meander near this region for a couple of days and then slowly progress north-northeastward towards northern CA by Day5/Tuesday. ...Day 5/Tuesday... Increasing mid to low-level flow is expected to develop Day 5/Tuesday over the Great Basin region as the height gradient tightens in association with the approaching CA cyclone. Very warm and dry atmospheric profiles are expected for several days preceding this feature, which will aid in even more receptive fuels being available by this time. Extended ensemble model guidance and high confidence in a deeply mixed boundary layer suggest there is now enough evidence to introduce low critical probabilities for breezy winds and low RH across eastern NV and western UT Day 5/Tuesday. ..Barnes.. 07/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... By Day 3/Sunday, the mid-level shortwave trough responsible for ongoing thunderstorms across the northern Rockies will move into the northern Great Plains. Quasi-zonal flow is expected over the rest of the northern CONUS, while subtropical ridging impacts the Southern Plains and Southwest. Farther west off the central CA coastline, a mid to upper-level cyclone is anticipated to meander near this region for a couple of days and then slowly progress north-northeastward towards northern CA by Day5/Tuesday. ...Day 5/Tuesday... Increasing mid to low-level flow is expected to develop Day 5/Tuesday over the Great Basin region as the height gradient tightens in association with the approaching CA cyclone. Very warm and dry atmospheric profiles are expected for several days preceding this feature, which will aid in even more receptive fuels being available by this time. Extended ensemble model guidance and high confidence in a deeply mixed boundary layer suggest there is now enough evidence to introduce low critical probabilities for breezy winds and low RH across eastern NV and western UT Day 5/Tuesday. ..Barnes.. 07/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... By Day 3/Sunday, the mid-level shortwave trough responsible for ongoing thunderstorms across the northern Rockies will move into the northern Great Plains. Quasi-zonal flow is expected over the rest of the northern CONUS, while subtropical ridging impacts the Southern Plains and Southwest. Farther west off the central CA coastline, a mid to upper-level cyclone is anticipated to meander near this region for a couple of days and then slowly progress north-northeastward towards northern CA by Day5/Tuesday. ...Day 5/Tuesday... Increasing mid to low-level flow is expected to develop Day 5/Tuesday over the Great Basin region as the height gradient tightens in association with the approaching CA cyclone. Very warm and dry atmospheric profiles are expected for several days preceding this feature, which will aid in even more receptive fuels being available by this time. Extended ensemble model guidance and high confidence in a deeply mixed boundary layer suggest there is now enough evidence to introduce low critical probabilities for breezy winds and low RH across eastern NV and western UT Day 5/Tuesday. ..Barnes.. 07/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... By Day 3/Sunday, the mid-level shortwave trough responsible for ongoing thunderstorms across the northern Rockies will move into the northern Great Plains. Quasi-zonal flow is expected over the rest of the northern CONUS, while subtropical ridging impacts the Southern Plains and Southwest. Farther west off the central CA coastline, a mid to upper-level cyclone is anticipated to meander near this region for a couple of days and then slowly progress north-northeastward towards northern CA by Day5/Tuesday. ...Day 5/Tuesday... Increasing mid to low-level flow is expected to develop Day 5/Tuesday over the Great Basin region as the height gradient tightens in association with the approaching CA cyclone. Very warm and dry atmospheric profiles are expected for several days preceding this feature, which will aid in even more receptive fuels being available by this time. Extended ensemble model guidance and high confidence in a deeply mixed boundary layer suggest there is now enough evidence to introduce low critical probabilities for breezy winds and low RH across eastern NV and western UT Day 5/Tuesday. ..Barnes.. 07/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more