Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As next week arrives, a subtropical ridge is expected to be in place over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while quasi-zonal flow impacts much of the northern CONUS. A mid to upper-level cyclone off the northern CA coast is expected to open and move onshore early Day 5/Wednesday morning, and then fill as it traverses the northern Rockies and phases with a long-wave trough over northwestern Canada. The ridge over the Southwest is expected to remain in place through the extended period, with modest westerlies crossing the Rockies and northern Great Plains. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Some increase in mid-level flow is still anticipated to accompany the aforementioned cyclone from northern CA into the Great Basin. Hot and dry conditions under the ridge will precede the approach of this feature, likely resulting in even more receptive fuels across the region by Day 4/Tuesday. Although there's some disagreement within the extended model guidance and ensembles with regards to wind speed, confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities across southeastern and eastern NV considering a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. In addition to hot, dry, and windy conditions across the Great Basin, a small area of isolated dry thunderstorms appears possible near and east of the southern Cascades of OR Day 4/Tuesday. Brief mid to upper-level ascent associated with the opening closed low should impact this region. However, confidence is not high enough to introduce another area of low probabilities for lightning at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As next week arrives, a subtropical ridge is expected to be in place over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while quasi-zonal flow impacts much of the northern CONUS. A mid to upper-level cyclone off the northern CA coast is expected to open and move onshore early Day 5/Wednesday morning, and then fill as it traverses the northern Rockies and phases with a long-wave trough over northwestern Canada. The ridge over the Southwest is expected to remain in place through the extended period, with modest westerlies crossing the Rockies and northern Great Plains. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Some increase in mid-level flow is still anticipated to accompany the aforementioned cyclone from northern CA into the Great Basin. Hot and dry conditions under the ridge will precede the approach of this feature, likely resulting in even more receptive fuels across the region by Day 4/Tuesday. Although there's some disagreement within the extended model guidance and ensembles with regards to wind speed, confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities across southeastern and eastern NV considering a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. In addition to hot, dry, and windy conditions across the Great Basin, a small area of isolated dry thunderstorms appears possible near and east of the southern Cascades of OR Day 4/Tuesday. Brief mid to upper-level ascent associated with the opening closed low should impact this region. However, confidence is not high enough to introduce another area of low probabilities for lightning at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As next week arrives, a subtropical ridge is expected to be in place over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while quasi-zonal flow impacts much of the northern CONUS. A mid to upper-level cyclone off the northern CA coast is expected to open and move onshore early Day 5/Wednesday morning, and then fill as it traverses the northern Rockies and phases with a long-wave trough over northwestern Canada. The ridge over the Southwest is expected to remain in place through the extended period, with modest westerlies crossing the Rockies and northern Great Plains. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Some increase in mid-level flow is still anticipated to accompany the aforementioned cyclone from northern CA into the Great Basin. Hot and dry conditions under the ridge will precede the approach of this feature, likely resulting in even more receptive fuels across the region by Day 4/Tuesday. Although there's some disagreement within the extended model guidance and ensembles with regards to wind speed, confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities across southeastern and eastern NV considering a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. In addition to hot, dry, and windy conditions across the Great Basin, a small area of isolated dry thunderstorms appears possible near and east of the southern Cascades of OR Day 4/Tuesday. Brief mid to upper-level ascent associated with the opening closed low should impact this region. However, confidence is not high enough to introduce another area of low probabilities for lightning at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As next week arrives, a subtropical ridge is expected to be in place over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while quasi-zonal flow impacts much of the northern CONUS. A mid to upper-level cyclone off the northern CA coast is expected to open and move onshore early Day 5/Wednesday morning, and then fill as it traverses the northern Rockies and phases with a long-wave trough over northwestern Canada. The ridge over the Southwest is expected to remain in place through the extended period, with modest westerlies crossing the Rockies and northern Great Plains. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Some increase in mid-level flow is still anticipated to accompany the aforementioned cyclone from northern CA into the Great Basin. Hot and dry conditions under the ridge will precede the approach of this feature, likely resulting in even more receptive fuels across the region by Day 4/Tuesday. Although there's some disagreement within the extended model guidance and ensembles with regards to wind speed, confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities across southeastern and eastern NV considering a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. In addition to hot, dry, and windy conditions across the Great Basin, a small area of isolated dry thunderstorms appears possible near and east of the southern Cascades of OR Day 4/Tuesday. Brief mid to upper-level ascent associated with the opening closed low should impact this region. However, confidence is not high enough to introduce another area of low probabilities for lightning at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As next week arrives, a subtropical ridge is expected to be in place over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while quasi-zonal flow impacts much of the northern CONUS. A mid to upper-level cyclone off the northern CA coast is expected to open and move onshore early Day 5/Wednesday morning, and then fill as it traverses the northern Rockies and phases with a long-wave trough over northwestern Canada. The ridge over the Southwest is expected to remain in place through the extended period, with modest westerlies crossing the Rockies and northern Great Plains. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Some increase in mid-level flow is still anticipated to accompany the aforementioned cyclone from northern CA into the Great Basin. Hot and dry conditions under the ridge will precede the approach of this feature, likely resulting in even more receptive fuels across the region by Day 4/Tuesday. Although there's some disagreement within the extended model guidance and ensembles with regards to wind speed, confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities across southeastern and eastern NV considering a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. In addition to hot, dry, and windy conditions across the Great Basin, a small area of isolated dry thunderstorms appears possible near and east of the southern Cascades of OR Day 4/Tuesday. Brief mid to upper-level ascent associated with the opening closed low should impact this region. However, confidence is not high enough to introduce another area of low probabilities for lightning at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As next week arrives, a subtropical ridge is expected to be in place over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while quasi-zonal flow impacts much of the northern CONUS. A mid to upper-level cyclone off the northern CA coast is expected to open and move onshore early Day 5/Wednesday morning, and then fill as it traverses the northern Rockies and phases with a long-wave trough over northwestern Canada. The ridge over the Southwest is expected to remain in place through the extended period, with modest westerlies crossing the Rockies and northern Great Plains. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Some increase in mid-level flow is still anticipated to accompany the aforementioned cyclone from northern CA into the Great Basin. Hot and dry conditions under the ridge will precede the approach of this feature, likely resulting in even more receptive fuels across the region by Day 4/Tuesday. Although there's some disagreement within the extended model guidance and ensembles with regards to wind speed, confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities across southeastern and eastern NV considering a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. In addition to hot, dry, and windy conditions across the Great Basin, a small area of isolated dry thunderstorms appears possible near and east of the southern Cascades of OR Day 4/Tuesday. Brief mid to upper-level ascent associated with the opening closed low should impact this region. However, confidence is not high enough to introduce another area of low probabilities for lightning at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1568 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1568 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Areas affected...Portions of eastern Iowa and adjacent parts of Wisconsin and northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 051907Z - 052130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon hours across the region. An isolated damaging wind gust may be possible with the strongest and most organized storms, but a severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely. DISCUSSION...A prefrontal north-northeast to south-southwest-oriented band of storms across Iowa and Wisconsin ahead of a midlevel impulse has begun strengthening and deepening this afternoon. Relatively clear skies ahead of these storms has resulted in surface heating and modest destabilization (~1000 J/kg of MLCAPE per recent mesoanalysis). Recent VWPs from ARX indicate around 30 knots of deep-layer shear, supporting the possibility of at least some storm organization. The poor midlevel lapse rates, however, will likely limit the overall severe threat. With over 30 knots of flow around 1-km AGL and relatively steep low-level lapse rates, isolated damaging wind gusts may be possible with the strongest storms. ..Jirak/Hart.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... LAT...LON 41329293 42059216 42759144 43499090 44608998 44998967 45568852 45248786 44338806 43148877 42608903 41908967 41529051 41239149 41039253 41029295 41329293 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0487 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 487 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1569 ..MOORE..07/05/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW...UNR...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 487 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-005-011-017-021-025-027-033-055-065-069-071-075-079-087- 103-105-109-111-052140- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN BLAINE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON FERGUS GARFIELD MCCONE MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM PHILLIPS POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE ROSEBUD TREASURE VALLEY WIBAUX YELLOWSTONE WYC005-011-019-033-045-052140- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CROOK JOHNSON SHERIDAN WESTON Read more

MD 1567 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1567 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Areas affected...Far southeast Wyoming into Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 051904Z - 052100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...High-based thunderstorms developing within the central Rockies/High Plains will pose a severe wind threat through the afternoon and evening hours. Watch issuance is possible as the severe threat becomes more widespread later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Steady growth of agitated cumulus is noted across central to northern CO in recent GOES imagery with several deeper towers beginning to produce steady lightning flashes within the higher terrain. This comes as diurnally-driven orographic ascent increases within a weakly capped environment, and temperatures in the High Plains begin to approach convective temperatures for surface-based parcels. Any lingering inhibition should be removed within the next 1-2 hours as temperatures continue to warm into the upper 70s and low/mid 80s, resulting in an increase in thunderstorm coverage within the higher terrain and across central to eastern CO. Through mid-afternoon, thunderstorms spreading into - or developing across - the High Plains will begin intensifying within an environment characterized by modest buoyancy (MLCAPE around 250-500 J/kg) but deep, well-mixed boundary layers and 20-30 knots of effective bulk shear. This thermodynamic/kinematic environment will promote strong downdraft accelerations, increasing cold pool production/depth, and eventual upscale growth into one or more organized clusters. While sporadic severe gusts and large hail (most likely near/below 1.25 inch in diameter) will be possible with initially semi-discrete cells, a more robust wind threat may materialize later this afternoon as organized clusters/line segments emerge across far southeast WY into central/eastern CO. Latest CAM solutions continue to hint that gusts between 60-70 mph will be possible with such clusters/lines. Convective trends will be monitored, and watch issuance is possible if/when this scenario becomes more apparent. ..Moore/Hart.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40280330 39710303 39290249 38920203 38480178 38120181 37940222 38000306 38280384 38550446 38780498 39090532 40890568 41210561 41530542 41730509 41770465 41620423 41270376 40280330 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1566 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL MONTANA TO NORTHERN WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1566 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Areas affected...Central Montana to northern Wyoming Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 051721Z - 051945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Weak convection developing within the northern Rockies will intensify over the next few hours as it moves into central Montana and northern Wyoming. Severe thunderstorm watch issuance is probable early this afternoon as storms pose an increasing severe threat. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery shows clusters of agitated cumulus and a few weak thunderstorms developing across far northwest WY and within the mountain ranges of central MT. Ascent associated with an approaching upper low combined with continued daytime heating will promote further development/maturation of convection over the next several hours. Latest forecast guidance suggests that lingering inhibition should be largely removed as temperatures climb into the upper 70s to low 80s. This is expected to occur between 18-20 UTC and should happen as weak/shallow convection overspreads somewhat richer low-level moisture in place at lower elevations across central MT to northern WY. This will result in an overall intensification of thunderstorms during this time frame. Moderate flow associated with the mid-level wave will support effective shear values on the order of 30-40 knots. As such, a few supercells appear likely with an attendant risk for large hail (possibly as large as 2 inches). This threat appears most probable along the MT/WY border where low-level moisture is relatively higher ahead of a weak outflow boundary and dewpoints remain in the mid/upper 50s. With time, increasing boundary-layer depth through the late afternoon should promote greater cold pool production and gradual upscale growth with an increasing severe wind threat. Given these concerns, watch issuance is anticipated in the coming hours as convection continues to develop. ..Moore/Hart.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... LAT...LON 44000610 43620651 43550733 43770801 43980841 44540870 47160899 47580891 47890861 48100805 48130760 48100700 47850667 45490585 44920578 44390589 44000610 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across the central Plains on Monday. Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central to Northern Plains... A northwest flow regime will become more prominent over the region on Monday, with 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb. Area of early storms are possible over parts of KS and NE from previous day activity, but air mass recovery will occur behind from eastern CO into western NE/KS with heating. New development may wait until near 00Z or after, but cells capable of large hail will be possible over a small area. ...Upstate NY into ME... A moist and unstable air mass will exist over the area, ahead of a cold front extending from western NY into ME. Daytime heating of this air mass will support scattered storms, beneath modest 30-40 kt midlevel winds. This should support fast-moving mixed-mode convection, with areas of damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across the central Plains on Monday. Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central to Northern Plains... A northwest flow regime will become more prominent over the region on Monday, with 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb. Area of early storms are possible over parts of KS and NE from previous day activity, but air mass recovery will occur behind from eastern CO into western NE/KS with heating. New development may wait until near 00Z or after, but cells capable of large hail will be possible over a small area. ...Upstate NY into ME... A moist and unstable air mass will exist over the area, ahead of a cold front extending from western NY into ME. Daytime heating of this air mass will support scattered storms, beneath modest 30-40 kt midlevel winds. This should support fast-moving mixed-mode convection, with areas of damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across the central Plains on Monday. Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central to Northern Plains... A northwest flow regime will become more prominent over the region on Monday, with 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb. Area of early storms are possible over parts of KS and NE from previous day activity, but air mass recovery will occur behind from eastern CO into western NE/KS with heating. New development may wait until near 00Z or after, but cells capable of large hail will be possible over a small area. ...Upstate NY into ME... A moist and unstable air mass will exist over the area, ahead of a cold front extending from western NY into ME. Daytime heating of this air mass will support scattered storms, beneath modest 30-40 kt midlevel winds. This should support fast-moving mixed-mode convection, with areas of damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across the central Plains on Monday. Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central to Northern Plains... A northwest flow regime will become more prominent over the region on Monday, with 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb. Area of early storms are possible over parts of KS and NE from previous day activity, but air mass recovery will occur behind from eastern CO into western NE/KS with heating. New development may wait until near 00Z or after, but cells capable of large hail will be possible over a small area. ...Upstate NY into ME... A moist and unstable air mass will exist over the area, ahead of a cold front extending from western NY into ME. Daytime heating of this air mass will support scattered storms, beneath modest 30-40 kt midlevel winds. This should support fast-moving mixed-mode convection, with areas of damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across the central Plains on Monday. Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central to Northern Plains... A northwest flow regime will become more prominent over the region on Monday, with 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb. Area of early storms are possible over parts of KS and NE from previous day activity, but air mass recovery will occur behind from eastern CO into western NE/KS with heating. New development may wait until near 00Z or after, but cells capable of large hail will be possible over a small area. ...Upstate NY into ME... A moist and unstable air mass will exist over the area, ahead of a cold front extending from western NY into ME. Daytime heating of this air mass will support scattered storms, beneath modest 30-40 kt midlevel winds. This should support fast-moving mixed-mode convection, with areas of damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across the central Plains on Monday. Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central to Northern Plains... A northwest flow regime will become more prominent over the region on Monday, with 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb. Area of early storms are possible over parts of KS and NE from previous day activity, but air mass recovery will occur behind from eastern CO into western NE/KS with heating. New development may wait until near 00Z or after, but cells capable of large hail will be possible over a small area. ...Upstate NY into ME... A moist and unstable air mass will exist over the area, ahead of a cold front extending from western NY into ME. Daytime heating of this air mass will support scattered storms, beneath modest 30-40 kt midlevel winds. This should support fast-moving mixed-mode convection, with areas of damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across the central Plains on Monday. Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central to Northern Plains... A northwest flow regime will become more prominent over the region on Monday, with 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb. Area of early storms are possible over parts of KS and NE from previous day activity, but air mass recovery will occur behind from eastern CO into western NE/KS with heating. New development may wait until near 00Z or after, but cells capable of large hail will be possible over a small area. ...Upstate NY into ME... A moist and unstable air mass will exist over the area, ahead of a cold front extending from western NY into ME. Daytime heating of this air mass will support scattered storms, beneath modest 30-40 kt midlevel winds. This should support fast-moving mixed-mode convection, with areas of damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across the central Plains on Monday. Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central to Northern Plains... A northwest flow regime will become more prominent over the region on Monday, with 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb. Area of early storms are possible over parts of KS and NE from previous day activity, but air mass recovery will occur behind from eastern CO into western NE/KS with heating. New development may wait until near 00Z or after, but cells capable of large hail will be possible over a small area. ...Upstate NY into ME... A moist and unstable air mass will exist over the area, ahead of a cold front extending from western NY into ME. Daytime heating of this air mass will support scattered storms, beneath modest 30-40 kt midlevel winds. This should support fast-moving mixed-mode convection, with areas of damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across the central Plains on Monday. Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central to Northern Plains... A northwest flow regime will become more prominent over the region on Monday, with 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb. Area of early storms are possible over parts of KS and NE from previous day activity, but air mass recovery will occur behind from eastern CO into western NE/KS with heating. New development may wait until near 00Z or after, but cells capable of large hail will be possible over a small area. ...Upstate NY into ME... A moist and unstable air mass will exist over the area, ahead of a cold front extending from western NY into ME. Daytime heating of this air mass will support scattered storms, beneath modest 30-40 kt midlevel winds. This should support fast-moving mixed-mode convection, with areas of damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across the central Plains on Monday. Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central to Northern Plains... A northwest flow regime will become more prominent over the region on Monday, with 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb. Area of early storms are possible over parts of KS and NE from previous day activity, but air mass recovery will occur behind from eastern CO into western NE/KS with heating. New development may wait until near 00Z or after, but cells capable of large hail will be possible over a small area. ...Upstate NY into ME... A moist and unstable air mass will exist over the area, ahead of a cold front extending from western NY into ME. Daytime heating of this air mass will support scattered storms, beneath modest 30-40 kt midlevel winds. This should support fast-moving mixed-mode convection, with areas of damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more