Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge should remain in place over the southern Rockies through the day on Monday with a cutoff low off the California coast. The height gradient between these two features is expected to strengthen throughout the day, which may allow for a corridor of stronger surface flow (15-20 mph) with 5-10% RH across portions of southern Nevada. However, confidence in the overlap of this stronger surface flow with receptive fuels is not high. Therefore, will hold off on introducing Elevated highlights at this time. ..Supinie.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge should remain in place over the southern Rockies through the day on Monday with a cutoff low off the California coast. The height gradient between these two features is expected to strengthen throughout the day, which may allow for a corridor of stronger surface flow (15-20 mph) with 5-10% RH across portions of southern Nevada. However, confidence in the overlap of this stronger surface flow with receptive fuels is not high. Therefore, will hold off on introducing Elevated highlights at this time. ..Supinie.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge should remain in place over the southern Rockies through the day on Monday with a cutoff low off the California coast. The height gradient between these two features is expected to strengthen throughout the day, which may allow for a corridor of stronger surface flow (15-20 mph) with 5-10% RH across portions of southern Nevada. However, confidence in the overlap of this stronger surface flow with receptive fuels is not high. Therefore, will hold off on introducing Elevated highlights at this time. ..Supinie.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge should remain in place over the southern Rockies through the day on Monday with a cutoff low off the California coast. The height gradient between these two features is expected to strengthen throughout the day, which may allow for a corridor of stronger surface flow (15-20 mph) with 5-10% RH across portions of southern Nevada. However, confidence in the overlap of this stronger surface flow with receptive fuels is not high. Therefore, will hold off on introducing Elevated highlights at this time. ..Supinie.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build over the southern Rockies during the day with a cutoff low west of California. Some weak flow aloft may be mixed down to the surface during the afternoon over portions of the Great Basin. However, overall surface flow is expected to remain weak, and even in the presence of low RH, any Elevated fire conditions should be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ..Supinie.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build over the southern Rockies during the day with a cutoff low west of California. Some weak flow aloft may be mixed down to the surface during the afternoon over portions of the Great Basin. However, overall surface flow is expected to remain weak, and even in the presence of low RH, any Elevated fire conditions should be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ..Supinie.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build over the southern Rockies during the day with a cutoff low west of California. Some weak flow aloft may be mixed down to the surface during the afternoon over portions of the Great Basin. However, overall surface flow is expected to remain weak, and even in the presence of low RH, any Elevated fire conditions should be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ..Supinie.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build over the southern Rockies during the day with a cutoff low west of California. Some weak flow aloft may be mixed down to the surface during the afternoon over portions of the Great Basin. However, overall surface flow is expected to remain weak, and even in the presence of low RH, any Elevated fire conditions should be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ..Supinie.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build over the southern Rockies during the day with a cutoff low west of California. Some weak flow aloft may be mixed down to the surface during the afternoon over portions of the Great Basin. However, overall surface flow is expected to remain weak, and even in the presence of low RH, any Elevated fire conditions should be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ..Supinie.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build over the southern Rockies during the day with a cutoff low west of California. Some weak flow aloft may be mixed down to the surface during the afternoon over portions of the Great Basin. However, overall surface flow is expected to remain weak, and even in the presence of low RH, any Elevated fire conditions should be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ..Supinie.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0488 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 488 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW RAP TO 45 NW PHP TO 55 WSW MBG. ..SPC..07/06/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 488 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-033-047-055-071-081-093-102-103-137-060540- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER HAAKON JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0488 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 488 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW RAP TO 45 NW PHP TO 55 WSW MBG. ..SPC..07/06/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 488 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-033-047-055-071-081-093-102-103-137-060540- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER HAAKON JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0488 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 488 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW RAP TO 45 NW PHP TO 55 WSW MBG. ..SPC..07/06/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 488 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-033-047-055-071-081-093-102-103-137-060540- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER HAAKON JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 488 SEVERE TSTM SD 052240Z - 060700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 488 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western South Dakota * Effective this Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning from 440 PM until 100 AM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A small but intense thunderstorm cluster will spread east-southeastward across western South Dakota this evening into the early overnight hours. Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds should be the main threat with the cluster. Peak gusts may reach up to 70-80 mph on an isolated basis. Occasional severe hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles south southwest of Buffalo SD to 10 miles east northeast of Philip SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 487... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28040. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0488 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 488 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW RAP TO 50 N RAP TO 35 WSW Y22. ..SPC..07/06/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 488 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-033-047-055-071-081-093-102-103-105-137-060440- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER HAAKON JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON PERKINS ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1572 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487...488... FOR BLACK HILLS REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 1572 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Areas affected...Black Hills region Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487...488... Valid 060056Z - 060300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487, 488 continues. SUMMARY...Small MCS/supercell will track southeast across the Black Hills region over the next few hours. Hail and wind remain the primary risks. DISCUSSION...Long-lived supercell/MCS is tracking across southeast MT into northeast WY early this evening. This small complex will continue propagating southeast across the Black Hills, along/north of a synoptic boundary that is draped along the southern/western portions of the higher terrain. Latest diagnostic data suggests a narrow corridor of instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) extends across the Black Hills, and 00z sounding from UNR supports this with 40kt 0-6km bulk shear. Environmental conditions remain favorable for supercells, but some form of a hybrid supercell/MCS complex is expected to track southeast into the northern portions of the Black Hills by 02z. ..Darrow.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ... LAT...LON 45530441 44760241 43880196 43520308 44790535 45530441 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0488 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 488 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW RAP TO 40 S 2WX TO 25 NNE 2WX. ..SPC..07/06/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 488 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-019-033-047-055-063-071-081-093-102-103-105-137-060340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER FALL RIVER HAAKON HARDING JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON PERKINS ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0488 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 488 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..07/06/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 488 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-019-033-047-055-063-071-081-093-102-103-105-137-060240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER FALL RIVER HAAKON HARDING JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON PERKINS ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern High Plains into tonight. Isolated large hail and severe winds gusts are also possible over the southern High Plains. ...Northern High Plains... Ahead of a progressive shortwave trough and associated 50-kt midlevel jet (per VWP data), an upscale-growing cluster of thunderstorms is advancing east-southeastward from southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD -- with recent signs of a rear-inflow jet. Ahead of this cluster, the UNR 00Z sounding sampled sufficient surface-based instability and an elongated/straight hodograph (around 40 kt of effective shear), for the maintenance of this activity with east-southeastward extent. The primary concern will be scattered severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph possible). See Severe Thunderstorm Watches 487/488 and MCD 1572 for details. ...Southern High Plains... Along the northeastern periphery of a midlevel ridge centered over the Southwest, around 20-30 kt of midlevel northwesterly flow and steep deep-layer lapse rates/strong buoyancy (see DDC 00Z sounding) are supporting a few transient severe cells and clusters. Isolated large hail and locally severe wind gusts are possible with the stronger/more persistent storms. ...Midwest... Scattered thunderstorms are spreading eastward along/ahead of a cold front. While instability is marginal, enhanced low/midlevel flow (sampled by VWP) may promote locally damaging gusts with any loosely organized clusters that evolve. ...Coastal Carolinas... Tropical Storm Chantal will continue tracking northward toward the SC Coast. Locally enhanced low-level shear ahead of the storm may promote a couple low-topped supercell structures in the outer rain bands, with a low-end risk of a couple tornadoes. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern High Plains into tonight. Isolated large hail and severe winds gusts are also possible over the southern High Plains. ...Northern High Plains... Ahead of a progressive shortwave trough and associated 50-kt midlevel jet (per VWP data), an upscale-growing cluster of thunderstorms is advancing east-southeastward from southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD -- with recent signs of a rear-inflow jet. Ahead of this cluster, the UNR 00Z sounding sampled sufficient surface-based instability and an elongated/straight hodograph (around 40 kt of effective shear), for the maintenance of this activity with east-southeastward extent. The primary concern will be scattered severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph possible). See Severe Thunderstorm Watches 487/488 and MCD 1572 for details. ...Southern High Plains... Along the northeastern periphery of a midlevel ridge centered over the Southwest, around 20-30 kt of midlevel northwesterly flow and steep deep-layer lapse rates/strong buoyancy (see DDC 00Z sounding) are supporting a few transient severe cells and clusters. Isolated large hail and locally severe wind gusts are possible with the stronger/more persistent storms. ...Midwest... Scattered thunderstorms are spreading eastward along/ahead of a cold front. While instability is marginal, enhanced low/midlevel flow (sampled by VWP) may promote locally damaging gusts with any loosely organized clusters that evolve. ...Coastal Carolinas... Tropical Storm Chantal will continue tracking northward toward the SC Coast. Locally enhanced low-level shear ahead of the storm may promote a couple low-topped supercell structures in the outer rain bands, with a low-end risk of a couple tornadoes. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2025 Read more