Severe Storms

MD 1574 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1574 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0714 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Areas affected...southwest South Dakota and north-central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061214Z - 061415Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms should persist for another couple of hours before weakening. Isolated hail and a damaging wind gust or two will remain possible in the near term. A watch is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue this morning across southwest South Dakota along the southwest portion of a remnant MCS that moved across this region overnight. These thunderstorms appear to be driven by isentropic ascent focused atop a residual cold pool left over from the overnight convection. This shows up as strong warm-air advection centered around 700 MB in regional mesoanalysis. Mesoanalysis also indicates a rich CAPE reservoir to the southwest of the ongoing storms, within the thunderstorm source/inflow region, providing additional buoyancy. With time, diurnal heating should begin to modify the existing cold pool and weaken the isentropic ascent/WAA leading to a downward trend in thunderstorm intensity. Before this weakening occurs, lapse rates do not appear particular steep this morning per RAP-model forecast soundings, and an isotherms layer extends upward from the surface to around 800 mb. This should limit the severe potential to isolated hail and perhaps a damaging wind gust or two -- realistically only in the most intense cores. A watch is not anticipated. ..Marsh/Bunting.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 42700288 43310326 43780292 43860217 43680064 43250033 42590021 42300061 42170165 42700288 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ..Central High Plains to the Southern Plains... A mid-level impulse along the northern periphery of the Southwest U.S. upper-level ridge will move east across the central High Plains this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate/strong surface-based instability, and around 35-45 kts of deep-layer shear will support supercell structures. Isolated thunderstorm development is expected by mid-late afternoon as ascent with the mid-level impulse overspreads the high Plains. These storms will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2 inches or greater in diameter) and strong gusts. Some eventual upscale growth is expected as cold pool mergers occur, and damaging gusts, possibly significant, becomes a greater concern. Along the OK-KS border, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a frontal boundary this afternoon. Mixed-layer CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg will be in place, along with 15-20 kts of northerly mid-level flow. Isolated stronger multicell storms or small clusters will be capable of strong/severe gusts through early evening. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley... A cold front will move east today across portions of Lower MI and the northern OH Valley. A mid-level impulse within the westerlies will move across the area this afternoon and contribute modest large-scale ascent. Somewhat stronger flow with this impulse, combined with pockets of moderate MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) will support multicell clusters this afternoon capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts. ...Maine... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon in association with an eastward-moving cold front. Although instability should remain rather modest (approaching 1000 J/kg), strong westerly mid-level flow will result multicell and possibly transient supercell storms moving quickly east. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard. ...Eastern North Carolina Vicinity... Tropical Storm Chantal is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to weaken and become post tropical tonight while moving north/northeast across NC/eastern VA (see latest NHC forecasts for details). Across eastern NC today, isolated low-topped supercells may develop within a weakly unstable atmosphere. Although low-level shear will not be particularly strong given the weakening nature of the tropical cyclone, it may prove sufficient for a couple tornadoes, especially with any sustained storm that can develop within areas of greater diurnal heating/instability. ..Bunting/Marsh.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ..Central High Plains to the Southern Plains... A mid-level impulse along the northern periphery of the Southwest U.S. upper-level ridge will move east across the central High Plains this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate/strong surface-based instability, and around 35-45 kts of deep-layer shear will support supercell structures. Isolated thunderstorm development is expected by mid-late afternoon as ascent with the mid-level impulse overspreads the high Plains. These storms will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2 inches or greater in diameter) and strong gusts. Some eventual upscale growth is expected as cold pool mergers occur, and damaging gusts, possibly significant, becomes a greater concern. Along the OK-KS border, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a frontal boundary this afternoon. Mixed-layer CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg will be in place, along with 15-20 kts of northerly mid-level flow. Isolated stronger multicell storms or small clusters will be capable of strong/severe gusts through early evening. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley... A cold front will move east today across portions of Lower MI and the northern OH Valley. A mid-level impulse within the westerlies will move across the area this afternoon and contribute modest large-scale ascent. Somewhat stronger flow with this impulse, combined with pockets of moderate MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) will support multicell clusters this afternoon capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts. ...Maine... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon in association with an eastward-moving cold front. Although instability should remain rather modest (approaching 1000 J/kg), strong westerly mid-level flow will result multicell and possibly transient supercell storms moving quickly east. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard. ...Eastern North Carolina Vicinity... Tropical Storm Chantal is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to weaken and become post tropical tonight while moving north/northeast across NC/eastern VA (see latest NHC forecasts for details). Across eastern NC today, isolated low-topped supercells may develop within a weakly unstable atmosphere. Although low-level shear will not be particularly strong given the weakening nature of the tropical cyclone, it may prove sufficient for a couple tornadoes, especially with any sustained storm that can develop within areas of greater diurnal heating/instability. ..Bunting/Marsh.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ..Central High Plains to the Southern Plains... A mid-level impulse along the northern periphery of the Southwest U.S. upper-level ridge will move east across the central High Plains this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate/strong surface-based instability, and around 35-45 kts of deep-layer shear will support supercell structures. Isolated thunderstorm development is expected by mid-late afternoon as ascent with the mid-level impulse overspreads the high Plains. These storms will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2 inches or greater in diameter) and strong gusts. Some eventual upscale growth is expected as cold pool mergers occur, and damaging gusts, possibly significant, becomes a greater concern. Along the OK-KS border, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a frontal boundary this afternoon. Mixed-layer CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg will be in place, along with 15-20 kts of northerly mid-level flow. Isolated stronger multicell storms or small clusters will be capable of strong/severe gusts through early evening. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley... A cold front will move east today across portions of Lower MI and the northern OH Valley. A mid-level impulse within the westerlies will move across the area this afternoon and contribute modest large-scale ascent. Somewhat stronger flow with this impulse, combined with pockets of moderate MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) will support multicell clusters this afternoon capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts. ...Maine... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon in association with an eastward-moving cold front. Although instability should remain rather modest (approaching 1000 J/kg), strong westerly mid-level flow will result multicell and possibly transient supercell storms moving quickly east. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard. ...Eastern North Carolina Vicinity... Tropical Storm Chantal is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to weaken and become post tropical tonight while moving north/northeast across NC/eastern VA (see latest NHC forecasts for details). Across eastern NC today, isolated low-topped supercells may develop within a weakly unstable atmosphere. Although low-level shear will not be particularly strong given the weakening nature of the tropical cyclone, it may prove sufficient for a couple tornadoes, especially with any sustained storm that can develop within areas of greater diurnal heating/instability. ..Bunting/Marsh.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ..Central High Plains to the Southern Plains... A mid-level impulse along the northern periphery of the Southwest U.S. upper-level ridge will move east across the central High Plains this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate/strong surface-based instability, and around 35-45 kts of deep-layer shear will support supercell structures. Isolated thunderstorm development is expected by mid-late afternoon as ascent with the mid-level impulse overspreads the high Plains. These storms will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2 inches or greater in diameter) and strong gusts. Some eventual upscale growth is expected as cold pool mergers occur, and damaging gusts, possibly significant, becomes a greater concern. Along the OK-KS border, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a frontal boundary this afternoon. Mixed-layer CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg will be in place, along with 15-20 kts of northerly mid-level flow. Isolated stronger multicell storms or small clusters will be capable of strong/severe gusts through early evening. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley... A cold front will move east today across portions of Lower MI and the northern OH Valley. A mid-level impulse within the westerlies will move across the area this afternoon and contribute modest large-scale ascent. Somewhat stronger flow with this impulse, combined with pockets of moderate MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) will support multicell clusters this afternoon capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts. ...Maine... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon in association with an eastward-moving cold front. Although instability should remain rather modest (approaching 1000 J/kg), strong westerly mid-level flow will result multicell and possibly transient supercell storms moving quickly east. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard. ...Eastern North Carolina Vicinity... Tropical Storm Chantal is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to weaken and become post tropical tonight while moving north/northeast across NC/eastern VA (see latest NHC forecasts for details). Across eastern NC today, isolated low-topped supercells may develop within a weakly unstable atmosphere. Although low-level shear will not be particularly strong given the weakening nature of the tropical cyclone, it may prove sufficient for a couple tornadoes, especially with any sustained storm that can develop within areas of greater diurnal heating/instability. ..Bunting/Marsh.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ..Central High Plains to the Southern Plains... A mid-level impulse along the northern periphery of the Southwest U.S. upper-level ridge will move east across the central High Plains this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate/strong surface-based instability, and around 35-45 kts of deep-layer shear will support supercell structures. Isolated thunderstorm development is expected by mid-late afternoon as ascent with the mid-level impulse overspreads the high Plains. These storms will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2 inches or greater in diameter) and strong gusts. Some eventual upscale growth is expected as cold pool mergers occur, and damaging gusts, possibly significant, becomes a greater concern. Along the OK-KS border, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a frontal boundary this afternoon. Mixed-layer CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg will be in place, along with 15-20 kts of northerly mid-level flow. Isolated stronger multicell storms or small clusters will be capable of strong/severe gusts through early evening. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley... A cold front will move east today across portions of Lower MI and the northern OH Valley. A mid-level impulse within the westerlies will move across the area this afternoon and contribute modest large-scale ascent. Somewhat stronger flow with this impulse, combined with pockets of moderate MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) will support multicell clusters this afternoon capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts. ...Maine... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon in association with an eastward-moving cold front. Although instability should remain rather modest (approaching 1000 J/kg), strong westerly mid-level flow will result multicell and possibly transient supercell storms moving quickly east. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard. ...Eastern North Carolina Vicinity... Tropical Storm Chantal is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to weaken and become post tropical tonight while moving north/northeast across NC/eastern VA (see latest NHC forecasts for details). Across eastern NC today, isolated low-topped supercells may develop within a weakly unstable atmosphere. Although low-level shear will not be particularly strong given the weakening nature of the tropical cyclone, it may prove sufficient for a couple tornadoes, especially with any sustained storm that can develop within areas of greater diurnal heating/instability. ..Bunting/Marsh.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ..Central High Plains to the Southern Plains... A mid-level impulse along the northern periphery of the Southwest U.S. upper-level ridge will move east across the central High Plains this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate/strong surface-based instability, and around 35-45 kts of deep-layer shear will support supercell structures. Isolated thunderstorm development is expected by mid-late afternoon as ascent with the mid-level impulse overspreads the high Plains. These storms will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2 inches or greater in diameter) and strong gusts. Some eventual upscale growth is expected as cold pool mergers occur, and damaging gusts, possibly significant, becomes a greater concern. Along the OK-KS border, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a frontal boundary this afternoon. Mixed-layer CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg will be in place, along with 15-20 kts of northerly mid-level flow. Isolated stronger multicell storms or small clusters will be capable of strong/severe gusts through early evening. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley... A cold front will move east today across portions of Lower MI and the northern OH Valley. A mid-level impulse within the westerlies will move across the area this afternoon and contribute modest large-scale ascent. Somewhat stronger flow with this impulse, combined with pockets of moderate MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) will support multicell clusters this afternoon capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts. ...Maine... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon in association with an eastward-moving cold front. Although instability should remain rather modest (approaching 1000 J/kg), strong westerly mid-level flow will result multicell and possibly transient supercell storms moving quickly east. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard. ...Eastern North Carolina Vicinity... Tropical Storm Chantal is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to weaken and become post tropical tonight while moving north/northeast across NC/eastern VA (see latest NHC forecasts for details). Across eastern NC today, isolated low-topped supercells may develop within a weakly unstable atmosphere. Although low-level shear will not be particularly strong given the weakening nature of the tropical cyclone, it may prove sufficient for a couple tornadoes, especially with any sustained storm that can develop within areas of greater diurnal heating/instability. ..Bunting/Marsh.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ..Central High Plains to the Southern Plains... A mid-level impulse along the northern periphery of the Southwest U.S. upper-level ridge will move east across the central High Plains this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate/strong surface-based instability, and around 35-45 kts of deep-layer shear will support supercell structures. Isolated thunderstorm development is expected by mid-late afternoon as ascent with the mid-level impulse overspreads the high Plains. These storms will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2 inches or greater in diameter) and strong gusts. Some eventual upscale growth is expected as cold pool mergers occur, and damaging gusts, possibly significant, becomes a greater concern. Along the OK-KS border, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a frontal boundary this afternoon. Mixed-layer CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg will be in place, along with 15-20 kts of northerly mid-level flow. Isolated stronger multicell storms or small clusters will be capable of strong/severe gusts through early evening. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley... A cold front will move east today across portions of Lower MI and the northern OH Valley. A mid-level impulse within the westerlies will move across the area this afternoon and contribute modest large-scale ascent. Somewhat stronger flow with this impulse, combined with pockets of moderate MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) will support multicell clusters this afternoon capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts. ...Maine... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon in association with an eastward-moving cold front. Although instability should remain rather modest (approaching 1000 J/kg), strong westerly mid-level flow will result multicell and possibly transient supercell storms moving quickly east. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard. ...Eastern North Carolina Vicinity... Tropical Storm Chantal is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to weaken and become post tropical tonight while moving north/northeast across NC/eastern VA (see latest NHC forecasts for details). Across eastern NC today, isolated low-topped supercells may develop within a weakly unstable atmosphere. Although low-level shear will not be particularly strong given the weakening nature of the tropical cyclone, it may prove sufficient for a couple tornadoes, especially with any sustained storm that can develop within areas of greater diurnal heating/instability. ..Bunting/Marsh.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ..Central High Plains to the Southern Plains... A mid-level impulse along the northern periphery of the Southwest U.S. upper-level ridge will move east across the central High Plains this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate/strong surface-based instability, and around 35-45 kts of deep-layer shear will support supercell structures. Isolated thunderstorm development is expected by mid-late afternoon as ascent with the mid-level impulse overspreads the high Plains. These storms will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2 inches or greater in diameter) and strong gusts. Some eventual upscale growth is expected as cold pool mergers occur, and damaging gusts, possibly significant, becomes a greater concern. Along the OK-KS border, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a frontal boundary this afternoon. Mixed-layer CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg will be in place, along with 15-20 kts of northerly mid-level flow. Isolated stronger multicell storms or small clusters will be capable of strong/severe gusts through early evening. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley... A cold front will move east today across portions of Lower MI and the northern OH Valley. A mid-level impulse within the westerlies will move across the area this afternoon and contribute modest large-scale ascent. Somewhat stronger flow with this impulse, combined with pockets of moderate MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) will support multicell clusters this afternoon capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts. ...Maine... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon in association with an eastward-moving cold front. Although instability should remain rather modest (approaching 1000 J/kg), strong westerly mid-level flow will result multicell and possibly transient supercell storms moving quickly east. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard. ...Eastern North Carolina Vicinity... Tropical Storm Chantal is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to weaken and become post tropical tonight while moving north/northeast across NC/eastern VA (see latest NHC forecasts for details). Across eastern NC today, isolated low-topped supercells may develop within a weakly unstable atmosphere. Although low-level shear will not be particularly strong given the weakening nature of the tropical cyclone, it may prove sufficient for a couple tornadoes, especially with any sustained storm that can develop within areas of greater diurnal heating/instability. ..Bunting/Marsh.. 07/06/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will remain in place across the Southwest while zonal mid-level flow continues to support embedded impulses traversing the northern CONUS this week into next weekend. The first notable mid-level impulse, which will bring severe potential to the central U.S. in the Days 2-3 time-frame, will approach the East Coast while slowing its forward advance. The impulse should reach the East Coast by Day 4 (Wednesday), providing adequate lift for at least scattered thunderstorms through the remainder of the week. Given preceding rich low-level moisture, ample buoyancy will be available to support at least isolated strong storms with potentially damaging gusts. A more pronounced mid-level trough will approach the Northern Plains in the Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday) period, resulting in strong surface troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture. Medium range guidance consensus shows that strong instability will precede the upper/surface troughs, favoring the development of severe storms. The first chance for severe storms will be over the western Dakotas on Wednesday as the upper trough approaches from the Northern Rockies. Upper support in this region does not currently appear robust, so severe storms may occur on a more isolated basis (hence no severe probabilities introduced at this time). However, there is medium range guidance agreement in the upper trough ejecting into the northern Plains on Day 5 (Thursday), with some guidance suggesting that instability could become extreme. Though it is difficult to confidently pinpoint storm mode this far in advance, guidance hints at the development of a persistent, elongated convective system, which may be capable of supporting all severe hazards, especially severe winds. Severe probabilities have been added to address this scenario. As the pronounced mid-level trough progresses eastward, more organized severe storms are possible over the MS Valley and perhaps points east Day 6 onward. However, the intensity, coverage, and location of severe potential will be highly dependent on the evolution of convection from previous days, which is hard to know this far in advance. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will remain in place across the Southwest while zonal mid-level flow continues to support embedded impulses traversing the northern CONUS this week into next weekend. The first notable mid-level impulse, which will bring severe potential to the central U.S. in the Days 2-3 time-frame, will approach the East Coast while slowing its forward advance. The impulse should reach the East Coast by Day 4 (Wednesday), providing adequate lift for at least scattered thunderstorms through the remainder of the week. Given preceding rich low-level moisture, ample buoyancy will be available to support at least isolated strong storms with potentially damaging gusts. A more pronounced mid-level trough will approach the Northern Plains in the Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday) period, resulting in strong surface troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture. Medium range guidance consensus shows that strong instability will precede the upper/surface troughs, favoring the development of severe storms. The first chance for severe storms will be over the western Dakotas on Wednesday as the upper trough approaches from the Northern Rockies. Upper support in this region does not currently appear robust, so severe storms may occur on a more isolated basis (hence no severe probabilities introduced at this time). However, there is medium range guidance agreement in the upper trough ejecting into the northern Plains on Day 5 (Thursday), with some guidance suggesting that instability could become extreme. Though it is difficult to confidently pinpoint storm mode this far in advance, guidance hints at the development of a persistent, elongated convective system, which may be capable of supporting all severe hazards, especially severe winds. Severe probabilities have been added to address this scenario. As the pronounced mid-level trough progresses eastward, more organized severe storms are possible over the MS Valley and perhaps points east Day 6 onward. However, the intensity, coverage, and location of severe potential will be highly dependent on the evolution of convection from previous days, which is hard to know this far in advance. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will remain in place across the Southwest while zonal mid-level flow continues to support embedded impulses traversing the northern CONUS this week into next weekend. The first notable mid-level impulse, which will bring severe potential to the central U.S. in the Days 2-3 time-frame, will approach the East Coast while slowing its forward advance. The impulse should reach the East Coast by Day 4 (Wednesday), providing adequate lift for at least scattered thunderstorms through the remainder of the week. Given preceding rich low-level moisture, ample buoyancy will be available to support at least isolated strong storms with potentially damaging gusts. A more pronounced mid-level trough will approach the Northern Plains in the Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday) period, resulting in strong surface troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture. Medium range guidance consensus shows that strong instability will precede the upper/surface troughs, favoring the development of severe storms. The first chance for severe storms will be over the western Dakotas on Wednesday as the upper trough approaches from the Northern Rockies. Upper support in this region does not currently appear robust, so severe storms may occur on a more isolated basis (hence no severe probabilities introduced at this time). However, there is medium range guidance agreement in the upper trough ejecting into the northern Plains on Day 5 (Thursday), with some guidance suggesting that instability could become extreme. Though it is difficult to confidently pinpoint storm mode this far in advance, guidance hints at the development of a persistent, elongated convective system, which may be capable of supporting all severe hazards, especially severe winds. Severe probabilities have been added to address this scenario. As the pronounced mid-level trough progresses eastward, more organized severe storms are possible over the MS Valley and perhaps points east Day 6 onward. However, the intensity, coverage, and location of severe potential will be highly dependent on the evolution of convection from previous days, which is hard to know this far in advance. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will remain in place across the Southwest while zonal mid-level flow continues to support embedded impulses traversing the northern CONUS this week into next weekend. The first notable mid-level impulse, which will bring severe potential to the central U.S. in the Days 2-3 time-frame, will approach the East Coast while slowing its forward advance. The impulse should reach the East Coast by Day 4 (Wednesday), providing adequate lift for at least scattered thunderstorms through the remainder of the week. Given preceding rich low-level moisture, ample buoyancy will be available to support at least isolated strong storms with potentially damaging gusts. A more pronounced mid-level trough will approach the Northern Plains in the Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday) period, resulting in strong surface troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture. Medium range guidance consensus shows that strong instability will precede the upper/surface troughs, favoring the development of severe storms. The first chance for severe storms will be over the western Dakotas on Wednesday as the upper trough approaches from the Northern Rockies. Upper support in this region does not currently appear robust, so severe storms may occur on a more isolated basis (hence no severe probabilities introduced at this time). However, there is medium range guidance agreement in the upper trough ejecting into the northern Plains on Day 5 (Thursday), with some guidance suggesting that instability could become extreme. Though it is difficult to confidently pinpoint storm mode this far in advance, guidance hints at the development of a persistent, elongated convective system, which may be capable of supporting all severe hazards, especially severe winds. Severe probabilities have been added to address this scenario. As the pronounced mid-level trough progresses eastward, more organized severe storms are possible over the MS Valley and perhaps points east Day 6 onward. However, the intensity, coverage, and location of severe potential will be highly dependent on the evolution of convection from previous days, which is hard to know this far in advance. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will remain in place across the Southwest while zonal mid-level flow continues to support embedded impulses traversing the northern CONUS this week into next weekend. The first notable mid-level impulse, which will bring severe potential to the central U.S. in the Days 2-3 time-frame, will approach the East Coast while slowing its forward advance. The impulse should reach the East Coast by Day 4 (Wednesday), providing adequate lift for at least scattered thunderstorms through the remainder of the week. Given preceding rich low-level moisture, ample buoyancy will be available to support at least isolated strong storms with potentially damaging gusts. A more pronounced mid-level trough will approach the Northern Plains in the Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday) period, resulting in strong surface troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture. Medium range guidance consensus shows that strong instability will precede the upper/surface troughs, favoring the development of severe storms. The first chance for severe storms will be over the western Dakotas on Wednesday as the upper trough approaches from the Northern Rockies. Upper support in this region does not currently appear robust, so severe storms may occur on a more isolated basis (hence no severe probabilities introduced at this time). However, there is medium range guidance agreement in the upper trough ejecting into the northern Plains on Day 5 (Thursday), with some guidance suggesting that instability could become extreme. Though it is difficult to confidently pinpoint storm mode this far in advance, guidance hints at the development of a persistent, elongated convective system, which may be capable of supporting all severe hazards, especially severe winds. Severe probabilities have been added to address this scenario. As the pronounced mid-level trough progresses eastward, more organized severe storms are possible over the MS Valley and perhaps points east Day 6 onward. However, the intensity, coverage, and location of severe potential will be highly dependent on the evolution of convection from previous days, which is hard to know this far in advance. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will remain in place across the Southwest while zonal mid-level flow continues to support embedded impulses traversing the northern CONUS this week into next weekend. The first notable mid-level impulse, which will bring severe potential to the central U.S. in the Days 2-3 time-frame, will approach the East Coast while slowing its forward advance. The impulse should reach the East Coast by Day 4 (Wednesday), providing adequate lift for at least scattered thunderstorms through the remainder of the week. Given preceding rich low-level moisture, ample buoyancy will be available to support at least isolated strong storms with potentially damaging gusts. A more pronounced mid-level trough will approach the Northern Plains in the Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday) period, resulting in strong surface troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture. Medium range guidance consensus shows that strong instability will precede the upper/surface troughs, favoring the development of severe storms. The first chance for severe storms will be over the western Dakotas on Wednesday as the upper trough approaches from the Northern Rockies. Upper support in this region does not currently appear robust, so severe storms may occur on a more isolated basis (hence no severe probabilities introduced at this time). However, there is medium range guidance agreement in the upper trough ejecting into the northern Plains on Day 5 (Thursday), with some guidance suggesting that instability could become extreme. Though it is difficult to confidently pinpoint storm mode this far in advance, guidance hints at the development of a persistent, elongated convective system, which may be capable of supporting all severe hazards, especially severe winds. Severe probabilities have been added to address this scenario. As the pronounced mid-level trough progresses eastward, more organized severe storms are possible over the MS Valley and perhaps points east Day 6 onward. However, the intensity, coverage, and location of severe potential will be highly dependent on the evolution of convection from previous days, which is hard to know this far in advance. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will remain in place across the Southwest while zonal mid-level flow continues to support embedded impulses traversing the northern CONUS this week into next weekend. The first notable mid-level impulse, which will bring severe potential to the central U.S. in the Days 2-3 time-frame, will approach the East Coast while slowing its forward advance. The impulse should reach the East Coast by Day 4 (Wednesday), providing adequate lift for at least scattered thunderstorms through the remainder of the week. Given preceding rich low-level moisture, ample buoyancy will be available to support at least isolated strong storms with potentially damaging gusts. A more pronounced mid-level trough will approach the Northern Plains in the Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday) period, resulting in strong surface troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture. Medium range guidance consensus shows that strong instability will precede the upper/surface troughs, favoring the development of severe storms. The first chance for severe storms will be over the western Dakotas on Wednesday as the upper trough approaches from the Northern Rockies. Upper support in this region does not currently appear robust, so severe storms may occur on a more isolated basis (hence no severe probabilities introduced at this time). However, there is medium range guidance agreement in the upper trough ejecting into the northern Plains on Day 5 (Thursday), with some guidance suggesting that instability could become extreme. Though it is difficult to confidently pinpoint storm mode this far in advance, guidance hints at the development of a persistent, elongated convective system, which may be capable of supporting all severe hazards, especially severe winds. Severe probabilities have been added to address this scenario. As the pronounced mid-level trough progresses eastward, more organized severe storms are possible over the MS Valley and perhaps points east Day 6 onward. However, the intensity, coverage, and location of severe potential will be highly dependent on the evolution of convection from previous days, which is hard to know this far in advance. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms, capable of producing isolated damaging to severe gusts, are possible across the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Midwest while an upper ridge persists across the Southwest, and another upper trough meanders along the California Coastline on Tuesday. Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the central U.S. and along the East Coast by afternoon, serving as a focus for scattered to widespread thunderstorm development. Given the presence of at least moderate instability, isolated severe storms will be possible over portions of the central and eastern CONUS. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected ahead of the surface trough by late morning/early afternoon. Surface temperatures should approach the upper 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, yielding up to 3000 J/kg of tall/thin MLCAPE (given poor mid-level lapse rates). Relatively weak flow below 500 mb should result in mediocre vertical wind shear. Pulse cellular storms and perhaps a few multicells are likely, with the stronger cores supporting wet downbursts and isolated damaging gust potential. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop ahead of the surface trough, and along preexisting boundaries from preceding storms during the afternoon hours. These storms will develop within a northwesterly upper flow regime as the mid-level trough departs the Mid-MS Valley region and are poised to move/propagate south-southeastward into the evening hours. Ahead of the storms, surface temperatures should warm into the 90s F amid upper 60s/lower 70s F dewpoints. With mid-level lapse rates generally in the 6.5-7.5 C/km range, MLCAPE should peak around or just over 2500 J/kg. Given modest vertical wind shear (i.e. 30 kts of effective bulk shear), multicells are expected. The stronger storms may produce isolated severe gusts, though an instance of hail cannot be ruled out. Should storms merge into one or more MCSs, a slightly denser swath of strong to severe gusts may be realized. Higher severe wind probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in MCS development, and if the location/timing of the MCS can be better ascertained. ..Squitieri.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms, capable of producing isolated damaging to severe gusts, are possible across the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Midwest while an upper ridge persists across the Southwest, and another upper trough meanders along the California Coastline on Tuesday. Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the central U.S. and along the East Coast by afternoon, serving as a focus for scattered to widespread thunderstorm development. Given the presence of at least moderate instability, isolated severe storms will be possible over portions of the central and eastern CONUS. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected ahead of the surface trough by late morning/early afternoon. Surface temperatures should approach the upper 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, yielding up to 3000 J/kg of tall/thin MLCAPE (given poor mid-level lapse rates). Relatively weak flow below 500 mb should result in mediocre vertical wind shear. Pulse cellular storms and perhaps a few multicells are likely, with the stronger cores supporting wet downbursts and isolated damaging gust potential. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop ahead of the surface trough, and along preexisting boundaries from preceding storms during the afternoon hours. These storms will develop within a northwesterly upper flow regime as the mid-level trough departs the Mid-MS Valley region and are poised to move/propagate south-southeastward into the evening hours. Ahead of the storms, surface temperatures should warm into the 90s F amid upper 60s/lower 70s F dewpoints. With mid-level lapse rates generally in the 6.5-7.5 C/km range, MLCAPE should peak around or just over 2500 J/kg. Given modest vertical wind shear (i.e. 30 kts of effective bulk shear), multicells are expected. The stronger storms may produce isolated severe gusts, though an instance of hail cannot be ruled out. Should storms merge into one or more MCSs, a slightly denser swath of strong to severe gusts may be realized. Higher severe wind probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in MCS development, and if the location/timing of the MCS can be better ascertained. ..Squitieri.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms, capable of producing isolated damaging to severe gusts, are possible across the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Midwest while an upper ridge persists across the Southwest, and another upper trough meanders along the California Coastline on Tuesday. Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the central U.S. and along the East Coast by afternoon, serving as a focus for scattered to widespread thunderstorm development. Given the presence of at least moderate instability, isolated severe storms will be possible over portions of the central and eastern CONUS. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected ahead of the surface trough by late morning/early afternoon. Surface temperatures should approach the upper 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, yielding up to 3000 J/kg of tall/thin MLCAPE (given poor mid-level lapse rates). Relatively weak flow below 500 mb should result in mediocre vertical wind shear. Pulse cellular storms and perhaps a few multicells are likely, with the stronger cores supporting wet downbursts and isolated damaging gust potential. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop ahead of the surface trough, and along preexisting boundaries from preceding storms during the afternoon hours. These storms will develop within a northwesterly upper flow regime as the mid-level trough departs the Mid-MS Valley region and are poised to move/propagate south-southeastward into the evening hours. Ahead of the storms, surface temperatures should warm into the 90s F amid upper 60s/lower 70s F dewpoints. With mid-level lapse rates generally in the 6.5-7.5 C/km range, MLCAPE should peak around or just over 2500 J/kg. Given modest vertical wind shear (i.e. 30 kts of effective bulk shear), multicells are expected. The stronger storms may produce isolated severe gusts, though an instance of hail cannot be ruled out. Should storms merge into one or more MCSs, a slightly denser swath of strong to severe gusts may be realized. Higher severe wind probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in MCS development, and if the location/timing of the MCS can be better ascertained. ..Squitieri.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms, capable of producing isolated damaging to severe gusts, are possible across the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Midwest while an upper ridge persists across the Southwest, and another upper trough meanders along the California Coastline on Tuesday. Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the central U.S. and along the East Coast by afternoon, serving as a focus for scattered to widespread thunderstorm development. Given the presence of at least moderate instability, isolated severe storms will be possible over portions of the central and eastern CONUS. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected ahead of the surface trough by late morning/early afternoon. Surface temperatures should approach the upper 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, yielding up to 3000 J/kg of tall/thin MLCAPE (given poor mid-level lapse rates). Relatively weak flow below 500 mb should result in mediocre vertical wind shear. Pulse cellular storms and perhaps a few multicells are likely, with the stronger cores supporting wet downbursts and isolated damaging gust potential. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop ahead of the surface trough, and along preexisting boundaries from preceding storms during the afternoon hours. These storms will develop within a northwesterly upper flow regime as the mid-level trough departs the Mid-MS Valley region and are poised to move/propagate south-southeastward into the evening hours. Ahead of the storms, surface temperatures should warm into the 90s F amid upper 60s/lower 70s F dewpoints. With mid-level lapse rates generally in the 6.5-7.5 C/km range, MLCAPE should peak around or just over 2500 J/kg. Given modest vertical wind shear (i.e. 30 kts of effective bulk shear), multicells are expected. The stronger storms may produce isolated severe gusts, though an instance of hail cannot be ruled out. Should storms merge into one or more MCSs, a slightly denser swath of strong to severe gusts may be realized. Higher severe wind probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in MCS development, and if the location/timing of the MCS can be better ascertained. ..Squitieri.. 07/06/2025 Read more