Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 06/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing over the Southwestern US will continue to weaken as the flow pattern gradually transitions to more zonal flow aloft. With the weakening winds over the Southwest, surface flow will weaken substantially. A weak cold front will move south from the Great Basin ushering in a cooler and slightly less dry air mass than the preceding days. The net result will be much more limited fire-weather potential, with only locally elevated conditions expected over portions of southern NM. ...Thunder... While the trough will be substantially weaker, lingering mid-level moisture ahead of the front, combined with subtle lift will allow for isolated thunderstorms across central and western CO. Likely high-based, owing to the limited moisture, there is some potential for dry lightning with these storms. However, the slowly unraveling forcing for ascent suggests uncertainty in the storm coverage. In addition, area fuels are driest in the lower terrain farther west where coverage is again questionable. While a few dry strikes are possible, uncertainty is too high for an IsoDryT area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0414 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 414 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE EVV TO 35 ESE OWB TO 45 S SDF. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1337 ..THORNTON..06/29/23 ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 414 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC147-163-173-291840- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK KYC003-009-031-047-059-061-085-099-101-107-141-149-177-183-213- 219-227-233-291840- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BARREN BUTLER CHRISTIAN DAVIESS EDMONSON GRAYSON HART HENDERSON HOPKINS LOGAN MCLEAN MUHLENBERG OHIO SIMPSON TODD WARREN WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH CENTROIDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing wind damage are expected Friday mainly from Illinois southeastward toward the southern Appalachians. Severe storms with large hail and wind are also forecast over eastern Colorado into parts of Kansas and Nebraska. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain over the lower MS Valley, with moderate mid and high level flow from the central Plains into the OH Valley. A positive tilt upper trough will result in cooling aloft over the central Plains, while the upper high gradually weakens due to daily bouts of storms around the periphery. At the surface, substantial low-level moisture will remain across the MS and OH Valleys, with 70s F dewpoints and cool midlevel temperatures again resulting in very strong instability. Moisture will also linger along and north of a southwest/northeast surface trough over the central Plains, again with cool temperatures aloft maximizing instability. ...Mid MS Valley to the southern Appalachians... The potential will exist for corridors of damaging winds across portions of the region, as forecast soundings indicate very strong instability. Uncertainly exists given the potential for early day activity, and potential outflows. In general, extreme instability will exist over parts of southern IL, KY, and TN, with modest midlevel northwesterlies of 20-30 kt. Winds around 850 mb will be out of the northwest, but still within the deep-layer theta-e plume and favoring forward propagating MCSs. If a well-develop system can develop, it may spread farther south than forecast into much of northern GA and AL. ...Central Plains... Cooling aloft with the upper trough along with plentiful low-level moisture north of the boundary will lead to widespread thunderstorms over CO and extending into northeast NM during the afternoon. Directional shear will lead to hodographs favorable for large hail, and perhaps a brief tornado before storms eventually merge as they move into western KS during the evening. Additional late day storms are expected to form in the hotter air from southwest KS into west TX. Locally damaging gusts will be possible there. ..Jewell.. 06/29/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH CENTROIDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing wind damage are expected Friday mainly from Illinois southeastward toward the southern Appalachians. Severe storms with large hail and wind are also forecast over eastern Colorado into parts of Kansas and Nebraska. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain over the lower MS Valley, with moderate mid and high level flow from the central Plains into the OH Valley. A positive tilt upper trough will result in cooling aloft over the central Plains, while the upper high gradually weakens due to daily bouts of storms around the periphery. At the surface, substantial low-level moisture will remain across the MS and OH Valleys, with 70s F dewpoints and cool midlevel temperatures again resulting in very strong instability. Moisture will also linger along and north of a southwest/northeast surface trough over the central Plains, again with cool temperatures aloft maximizing instability. ...Mid MS Valley to the southern Appalachians... The potential will exist for corridors of damaging winds across portions of the region, as forecast soundings indicate very strong instability. Uncertainly exists given the potential for early day activity, and potential outflows. In general, extreme instability will exist over parts of southern IL, KY, and TN, with modest midlevel northwesterlies of 20-30 kt. Winds around 850 mb will be out of the northwest, but still within the deep-layer theta-e plume and favoring forward propagating MCSs. If a well-develop system can develop, it may spread farther south than forecast into much of northern GA and AL. ...Central Plains... Cooling aloft with the upper trough along with plentiful low-level moisture north of the boundary will lead to widespread thunderstorms over CO and extending into northeast NM during the afternoon. Directional shear will lead to hodographs favorable for large hail, and perhaps a brief tornado before storms eventually merge as they move into western KS during the evening. Additional late day storms are expected to form in the hotter air from southwest KS into west TX. Locally damaging gusts will be possible there. ..Jewell.. 06/29/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR IMPROPERLY FORMATTED HAIL POINTS PRODUCT ...SUMMARY... Swaths of damaging winds of 60-80 mph, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes are expected today across Illinois and western/southern Indiana. Other severe storms with large hail and damaging winds gusts are expected across the Tennessee Valley, as well as the central High Plains. ...Midwest/Tennessee Valley including MO/IL/IN/KY/TN... An upper-ridge peripheral zone of locally intense/significant severe weather is expected today, especially across Illinois into western/southern Indiana and west-central Kentucky southward across the Tennessee Valley. A prominent/relatively large MCS across northeast Missouri and northwest Illinois at late morning will continue to progress eastward through a very unstable air mass, with potential for significant wind gusts, occasional hail, and some convective line-embedded tornado risk. The eastern extent of the most intense severe weather is a bit uncertain given current air mass characteristics across far eastern Illinois into Indiana in the wake of early day storms, but severe weather can nonetheless be expected through the afternoon into evening. Another focused corridor of severe weather will exist from the Lower Ohio Valley southward into the Tennessee Valley, highlighted with a leading south/southeastward-moving MCS, as well as regenerative potentially severe convection on its trailing west/northwest flanks. Bouts of damaging winds and severe hail will be possible into this evening in this corridor. ...Front Range/Central Plains this afternoon/evening... Have upgraded portions of the Front Range and southeast Wyoming/far western Nebraska and northeast Colorado to an Enhanced Risk. Severe storms are expected later this afternoon into tonight within the post-frontal upslope low-level flow across eastern Colorado/southeast Wyoming, with appreciable low-level moisture having spread westward to the Front Range overnight. Breaks in the low clouds will support moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon (MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg), when thunderstorm development will become more probable on and immediately east of the higher terrain from Colorado into southeast Wyoming. The moderate buoyancy and relatively long hodographs with effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt will support supercells capable of producing large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, along with some tornado potential. Upscale growth into a few clusters will be possible this evening, with an attendant threat for isolated severe-caliber winds. Some of the evening convection may persist into the overnight hours across southern Nebraska/northern Kansas with some threat for isolated large hail and wind damage, potentially as far east as southwest Iowa/northwest Missouri. ..Guyer/Smith.. 06/29/2023 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jun 28 22:15:22 UTC 2023.

WW 0408 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 408 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1319 ..SMITH..06/28/23 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 408 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC007-013-033-045-049-069-105-123-157-161-165-282230- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX SDC033-047-081-093-102-103-282230- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER FALL RIVER LAWRENCE MEADE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON WYC005-009-011-015-021-027-031-045-282230- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 408 SEVERE TSTM NE SD WY 281955Z - 290300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 408 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Nebraska Southwest South Dakota Eastern Wyoming * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered storms will continue to develop across the region this afternoon, with conditions supportive of supercells capable of large to very large hail. Storms may eventually cluster by evening from southeast Wyoming into western Nebraska with an increased potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles northwest of Rapid City SD to 30 miles west of Sidney NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, isolated damaging winds and a tornado or two are possible this afternoon/evening across northwest Wisconsin/eastern Minnesota as well as the central High Plains including southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska. Minor expansion of the Slight Risk over SD/NE at 20Z. Storms are just forming over the northern High Plains, and a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1319. Additional severe storms remain possible later today from near the Twin Cities into western WI. The air mass continues to destabilize with gradual moisture advection from the south/southwest. ..Jewell.. 06/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023/ ...Upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon through late evening... No outlook/forecast reasoning changes appear warranted. A shortwave trough (enhanced some by prior convection) will progress eastward over Minnesota/Wisconsin through evening. An associated/weak surface cold front will likewise move eastward across Minnesota, while low-level moistening occurs from the southwest during the day beneath a lingering plume of steep midlevel lapse rates. MLCAPE will increase to 2500-3000 J/kg with sufficiently long/curved hodographs for a supercell threat later this afternoon/evening from eastern Minnesota into northwest/western Wisconsin, along and just ahead of the front. Large hail will be the main threat, though isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will also be possible. ...Central High Plains this afternoon and tonight... Low-level flow will veer to easterly during the afternoon, with boundary-layer dewpoints from the mid 50s to lower 60s F in the upslope regime. Subtle speed maxima aloft and surface heating in cloud breaks should allow weakening of convective inhibition by mid-late afternoon, when at least isolated thunderstorm development is possible from eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle, and possibly northeast Colorado and/or the South Dakota Black Hills vicinity. Moderate buoyancy and long, relatively straight hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail, along with some potential for strong-severe outflow gusts and a tornado or two. A semi-organized cluster or two could evolve and progress east-southeastward this evening toward/across west/southwest Nebraska. ...Northern/central Illinois and eastern Iowa... The potential for deep convective development, and uncertain timing thereof, remains a key uncertainty for parts of Iowa/northwest Illinois. There appears to be a conditional potential for surface-based development late this afternoon/early evening in vicinity of the warm front and/or surface trough across west/central into southern Iowa. Strong deep-layer wind profiles, very steep mid-level lapse rates and ample buoyancy would support severe storms/supercells, although the degree of capping leads to uncertainty regarding the likelihood/extent of convective development around peak heating. Convective development will be more probable tonight as warm advection increases related to the strengthening of a west-southwesterly low-level jet. The chance for elevated thunderstorm development will increase overnight from eastern Iowa into Illinois. MUCAPE >2500 J/kg, steep mid-level lapse rates and effective bulk shear >50 kt will support the potential for elevated supercells to produce large hail, while DCAPE >1000 J/kg suggest some potential for strong gusts to reach the ground. There still remains substantial uncertainty regarding the specific corridor and timing of storm development late this afternoon into, so will continue to maintain the Marginal risk at this time. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... CORRECTED FL GENERAL THUNDER, EXPANDED MARGINAL AND SLIGHT AREAS IN THE SOUTHEAST ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with wind-damage and hail will be possible in parts of the Ohio Valley on Friday. An isolated severe threat may also develop in the southern and central Appalachians, and across parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...Update... Latest guidance shows a strong northwest flow regime co-located with strong instability from the OH Valley into the southern Appalachians. The severe probabilities have thus been expanded farther southeast to account for expected damaging wind threat. ...Ohio Valley/Southern and Central Appalachians... A mid-level anticyclone will remain over the southern U.S. on Friday, as an upper-level trough moves through the Great Lakes. An associated mid-level jet will translate eastward across the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a boundary is forecast to be located from the lower Ohio Valley extending east-southeastward into the southern Appalachians. Model forecasts suggest that an MCS could be ongoing at the start of the period, with the MCS moving eastward across the Ohio Valley relatively early in the day. If this scenario pans out, then a wind-damage threat can be expected along the leading edge of the system. Thunderstorm redevelopment will be possible in the wake of this convective system in the afternoon. Areas that are not impacted by the earlier MCS, could have a greater severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening, with wind damage and isolated large hail as the primary threats. ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... An upper-level trough will move into the central High Plains on Friday, as mid-level flow ahead of the system remains from the southwest. At the surface, a front is forecast to be located across Kansas. An east-to-west corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be to the north of the boundary across northern Kansas and far southern Nebraska. During the afternoon, thunderstorms are forecast to develop further west in the higher terrain of north-central Colorado, with additional storms forming in the central High Plains. This convection should move eastward into southern Nebraska and northern Kansas during the late afternoon and early to mid evening. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast along the axis of stronger instability, where an isolated severe threat is expected develop. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ..Jewell.. 06/28/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 06/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper trough across the Southwest is forecast to weaken and lift northward as subtropical ridging strengthens into late Day2/Thursday. Enhanced mid-level flow will slowly weaken as the trough moves out of the Southwest. The remnant warm, dry and gusty air mass should still support a few hours of elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Southwest... As the main trough begins to weaken and exit to the northeast, mid-level ridging will slowly expand northward across southern NM/AZ. Mid-level flow is forecast to slowly weaken, though it will likely remain strong enough to bolster some surface wind response. The dry air mass will again favor low afternoon RH values in the single digits to teens over much of the area. While winds are not expected to be as strong as previous days, widespread 15-20 mph and occasional higher gusts should support a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire concerns across the Southwest and Four Corners. The highest confidence in sustained fire-weather conditions will remain in northeastern AZ and northwest NM, closest to the departing trough and the strongest mid level flow. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper trough lifts northeast and weakens, forcing for ascent should remain just strong enough for isolated high-based storms to develop along the higher terrain of central NM. The dry sub-cloud air mass will support low wetting rain potential and isolated dry lightning atop very dry fuels. Additional storms are possible across portions of UT and the Great Basin. Though likely drier in nature, fuels across this area are less receptive to fire spread. ...Southern High Plains... Very warm and dry surface conditions are expected behind a weak surface pressure trough across portions of West TX and eastern NM. Temperatures greater than 100 F will support low afternoon RH values below 15%. While winds are not expected to be overly strong, some enhancement of surface winds behind the surface trough may occasionally reach near 15 mph. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and hail are possible across the region from Illinois into Kentucky. A couple tornadoes may also occur. Severe hail and wind are also expected from northeast Colorado eastward into Nebraska, with a tornado or two possible. ...Synopsis... An upper high will remain centered over the lower MS Valley on Thursday, with moderate midlevel flow around the ridge from the central Plains into the OH Valley and Appalachians with 500 mb speed of 40-50 kt. Meanwhile, an upper trough will skirt the area from northern MN into the upper Great Lakes, flattening the ridge and aiding lift from IA to the OH Valley. At the surface, weak low pressure will exist over IA and northern MO, with a boundary extending westward across KS with weak wind shift. A very moist and unstable air mass will exist ahead of the IA/MO surface trough, with the eastern edge of the better moisture roughly from IN southward across middle TN. Ample moisture will exist for severe storms even north of the central Plains portion of the boundary, with weak/easterly low-level winds across CO, NE and northern KS. Areas of storms may be ongoing from NE eastward into IL Thursday morning, which reduces predictability for this forecast. Denoted threat corridors may change in subsequent outlook updates. ...IL/IA/MO southeastward into KY... Areas of storms may be ongoing from eastern IA/northern MO southeastward into IL, IN, and parts of KY, possibly producing damaging winds and aided by warm advection out of the west. Some of this activity could persist southeastward during the day into KY and TN, given the favorable northwest flow regime and inflow of theta-e from the west. In the wake of this activity, a very unstable air mass will remain in place where outflows have not stabilized. Conditionally, supercell profiles will exist with potential for very large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes assuming cellular storm mode. However, this is highly uncertain given the potential for widespread early storms. As such, the significant hail and tornado probabilities are conditional, but warranted given some of the forecast instability profiles. Additional activity may develop during the afternoon over WI, given the influence of the wave to the north and dependent on enough instability remaining, with hail possible. ...Central Plains... Storms are likely to form over WY and into eastern CO Thursday afternoon as the air mass remains moist and unstable with increasing mid to high level winds stretching hodographs. Large hail appears to be the main concern while storms are cellular but also with severe outflow potential with time. Strong wind gusts are likely as well farther south into western KS where hot temperatures will exist. Storms may persist overnight across western KS into NE aided by the southwesterly 850 mb flow. ..Jewell.. 06/28/2023 Read more

WW 0402 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 402 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW CAO TO 20 SSE SPD TO 55 ENE LAA. ..THORNTON..06/27/23 ATTN...WFO...PUB...DDC...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 402 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC055-067-069-075-081-093-119-129-175-187-189-272340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FINNEY GRANT GRAY HAMILTON HASKELL KEARNY MEADE MORTON SEWARD STANTON STEVENS NMC059-272340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE UNION OKC007-025-139-272340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER CIMARRON TEXAS Read more

WW 0403 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 403 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..06/27/23 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 403 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC063-075-095-115-121-125-272340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KIT CARSON LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-039-153-179-181-193-272340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS NEC005-007-013-029-031-033-045-049-057-063-069-075-085-087-091- 101-111-113-117-123-135-145-157-161-165-171-272340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE CHASE CHERRY CHEYENNE Read more

WW 402 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NM OK TX 271950Z - 280200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 402 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far southeast Colorado Southwest Kansas Far northeast New Mexico Oklahoma Panhandle Northern Texas Panhandle * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Initial high-based supercells over the Raton Mesa will intensify across southwest Kansas and the northern Panhandles, before likely consolidating into a small bowing complex. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles southwest of Guymon OK to 45 miles west northwest of Garden City KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 400...WW 401... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 27045. ...Grams Read more

WW 403 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE WY 272035Z - 280300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 403 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 235 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Northwest Kansas Western Nebraska Far southeast Wyoming * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...At least a few intense supercells should develop along and ahead of a dryline. Profiles are supportive of potentially for very large to giant hail, along with a threat for a tornado or two and severe wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles northeast of Chadron NE to 25 miles east southeast of Goodland KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 400...WW 401...WW 402... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27040. ...Grams Read more

WW 0404 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0404 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 404 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS 272140Z - 280400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 404 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Arkansas Northern and Eastern Louisiana Central and Southern Mississippi * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 440 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...An organizing cluster of storms will continue southeastward across the ArkLaMiss into southern Mississippi this evening, with wind damage and some hail likely. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west of Monroe LA to 35 miles north northeast of Pine Belt MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 400...WW 401...WW 402...WW 403... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 31025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0400 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 400 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W ELD TO 25 SW LLQ TO 35 ESE PBF TO 50 NNE GLH. ..THORNTON..06/27/23 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 400 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC041-043-272240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DESHA DREW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1309 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN AR INTO NORTHEASTERN LA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 1309 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023 Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern AR into northeastern LA and central/southern MS Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 272127Z - 272300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds appears to be increasing. Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued soon. DISCUSSION...Convection has recently intensified on the southern flank/outflow from an MCV generated by prior convection across AR/OK. The airmass downstream of these thunderstorms is extremely unstable and very moist, with latest mesoanalysis estimating 4000+ J/kg of MLCAPE is present along/south of a weak front. While low-level flow is modest, mid-level north-northwesterly winds do slightly increase to around 20-30 kt per area VWPs. This may be enough, along with the MCV circulation, to maintain convective intensity/multicell structures as these thunderstorms spread southeastward this evening. Scattered damaging winds will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated large hail may occur with cells developing ahead of the cluster. Given recent radar trends, Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will likely be needed soon. ..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...SHV... LAT...LON 33169179 33509122 33048983 32498899 31948899 31388927 31028981 31019110 31379192 32399293 32949293 33169179 Read more