Severe Storms

WW 0444 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 444 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..07/04/23 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 444 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-011-013-014-017-019-025-031-035-039-041-047-059-061- 063-069-073-075-087-089-095-099-101-115-121-123-125-042240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BENT BOULDER BROOMFIELD CHEYENNE CLEAR CREEK CROWLEY DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO GILPIN JEFFERSON KIOWA KIT CARSON LARIMER LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS PUEBLO SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA NEC007-033-105-157-042240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER CHEYENNE KIMBALL SCOTTS BLUFF Read more

WW 444 SEVERE TSTM CO NE WY 042005Z - 050500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 444 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 205 PM MDT Tue Jul 4 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Southwest Nebraska Panhandle Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Initial supercells should evolve into a cluster across the eastern Colorado plains, with renewed development expected along the Front Range later this evening. Large hail will be the main threat early and late, with the greatest severe wind threat during the early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Scottsbluff NE to 5 miles east southeast of La Junta CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Grams Read more

WW 0445 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 445 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..07/04/23 ATTN...WFO...OAX...FSD...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 445 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC085-093-129-133-155-165-193-042240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARRISON IDA MILLS MONONA POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY WOODBURY KSC089-123-141-147-163-183-042240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEWELL MITCHELL OSBORNE PHILLIPS ROOKS SMITH NEC001-003-011-019-021-023-025-027-035-037-039-043-051-053-055- 059-061-065-073-077-079-081-083-093-099-109-119-121-125-129-137- 139-141-143-151-153-155-159-163-167-169-173-177-179-181-185- 042240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 446 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..07/04/23 ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC023-039-051-055-063-065-067-071-075-093-101-109-135-137-153- 165-171-179-181-187-193-195-199-203-042240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR ELLIS FINNEY GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GREELEY HAMILTON KEARNY LANE LOGAN NESS NORTON RAWLINS RUSH SCOTT SHERIDAN SHERMAN STANTON THOMAS TREGO WALLACE WICHITA NEC057-087-145-042240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUNDY HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 445 SEVERE TSTM IA KS NE 042030Z - 050300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 445 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 330 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Iowa North-central Kansas South-central to eastern Nebraska * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Initial cells will pose a threat for large hail but should quickly cluster and likely spread east-southeast this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles west southwest of Concordia KS to 15 miles west northwest of Sioux City IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 444... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Grams Read more

WW 446 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 042040Z - 050500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 446 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 340 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Kansas Far southwest Nebraska * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 340 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multicell clusters will develop along a quasi-stationary front, as well as spread east from eastern Colorado later this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles south southwest of Goodland KS to 25 miles east northeast of Hill City KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 444...WW 445... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Grams Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Tue Jul 04 2023 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL CO...NORTHERN KS...AND SOUTHERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Rockies to the Upper Midwest through mainly this evening. The most probable corridor for significant severe wind and hail is across a portion of eastern Colorado, northern Kansas, and southern Nebraska. ...Discussion... The only notable change this outlook update is to reduce severe probabilities across parts of the Upper Midwest due primarily to observational trends (i.e., visible satellite, surface observations, model-derived instability fields) showing weaker instability and a lessening risk for severe thunderstorms. ..Smith.. 07/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 04 2023/ ...Southern Rockies and the central Great Plains... Scattered thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain near the UT/WY/CO border area east to the Front Range of CO/WY later this afternoon amid 40s to mid 50s surface dew points this morning. Steep mid-level lapse rates and fast mid-level westerlies centered over WY will support potential for a couple long-tracked supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. This should evolve into a scattering of supercells over the central High Plains by early evening within a post-frontal, upslope flow regime. These will likely consolidate into an MCS as they spread away from the stronger mid-level flow and towards the deeply mixed boundary layer south of the front. The corridor immediately along the frontal zone will have the relatively greatest threat for significant severe wind gusts and a tornado or two. This MCS may merge with downstream convection that will likely develop separately in NE along the cold front. Overall, the hail threat should be mainly focused along the initial corridor of severe development and within the post-frontal regime, while the wind threat becomes the dominant hazard downstream until convection gradually subsides overnight. ...Upper Midwest... Remnants of a morning MCS have persisted across a portion of the Mid-MO Valley into the Twin Cities area. Attendant overturning and remnant cloud coverage is delaying diurnal destabilization, which 12Z guidance appears to be poorly handling overall. There appears to be a confined pocket of clearing behind the MCS outflow near a minor surface wave along the cold front. It is quite unclear whether there will be adequate recovery time across southeast SD northeastward across MN in the wake of this morning's activity. Conditionally, it will be a favorable setup for potential late afternoon to early evening redevelopment. Along the fringe of the stronger mid flow centered on the northern Great Plains overlapping the immediate frontal zone, 25-35 kt effective bulk shear would support organized multicell clusters and transient supercell structures. Primary change this outlook is to revamp the underlying hail probabilities which were forecast to be of equal weight and spatial extent as the wind probabilities. The large hail threat should be mainly focused along the initial corridor of severe development, with the wind threat largely being the dominant hazard downstream given the convective mode and weakness in the hodograph above the mid-levels. ...Mid and South Atlantic Coastal Plains to the Red River Valley... Primary change this outlook is to remove much of the hail probabilities which were forecast to be of equal weight as the wind probabilities for what will undoubtedly be a predominant sporadic damaging wind threat. A broad swath of moderate buoyancy with pockets of large buoyancy (MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg) are expected across parts of the Atlantic coastal plain across the Southeast through the Deep South to the Red River Valley. Weak to modest deep-layer shear and ill-defined synoptic/mesoscale features to help focus a more probable severe threat area, suggests a broad cat 1/MRGL risk remains warranted. Relatively greater potential for loosely organized multicell clusters and/or deeper updrafts is apparent over the eastern Carolinas and the Ark-La-Miss vicinity. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CDT Tue Jul 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Jul 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... A belt of moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow trailing a departing midlevel trough over the central Rockies will persist over the Southwest. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, efficient diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will favor deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft -- yielding 10 percent minimum RH and 15-20 mph winds across northern AZ. Given receptive fuels across this area, elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Another day of diurnally driven, high-based thunderstorms are expected across parts of western CO, as a subtle shortwave impulse crosses the central Rockies. A deep/dry boundary layer and quick westerly storm motions should once again favor isolated dry thunderstorms capable of new fire starts. Farther north, a plume of adequate midlevel moisture should extend into the Northwest by late afternoon/evening. Diurnal heating beneath this plume of midlevel moisture may yield weak instability, supporting isolated high-based thunderstorm development over parts of south-central OR. With increasingly dry fuels over the region, isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EAST THROUGH THE OZARKS AND INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered storms are forecast from the central High Plains eastward into the middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. ...Central High Plains to the southwest Great Lakes... A cold front will continue to advance southeastward/southward across central portions of the country, as the southern extent of mid-level troughing crossing central Canada moves eastward across the northern and central Plains, toward the Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes. Widely scattered showers/thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing Wednesday morning from the eastern half of KS into the Ozarks with this activity weakening/dissipating by mid-late morning. Ahead of this associated convective debris over the mid MS Valley, heating amidst a very moist airmass characterized by upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints, will result in a moderate to very unstable airmass across the mid MS Valley (MLCAPE ranging from 1000 J/kg in southern WI to 3000 J/kg in IL/MO). Frontal convergence and weakening convective inhibition will result in scattered thunderstorms growing upscale into one or more bands of storms while thunderstorm coverage increases into the early evening. Modest deep-layer westerly mid to high-level flow will limit overall storm intensity. The stronger storms across the central Great Lakes southwestward into the Ozarks will mainly pose a risk for damaging gusts. This threat will likely subside during the evening and as the activity pushes farther east/southeast into a flattened sub-tropical ridge. Farther west into the High Plains, weaker instability is expected due to more limited boundary-layer moisture. However, stronger mid-level flow near and to the cool side of the trailing, west-to-east segment of the front, atop low-level easterly/southeasterly flow, will result in deep-layer shear sufficient to support supercells. During the afternoon, isolated High-Plains storms should develop -- with attendant risks for large hail and severe gusts. Storms appear likely expand in coverage and shift out of the High Plains across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma during the evening into the overnight, as a modest, nocturnal increase in southeasterly low-level flow is expected. Some accompanying risk for severe gusts/large hail may persist across the Kansas/Oklahoma vicinity -- initially with frontal convection, but later with storms moving east-southeastward off the higher terrain to the west. ...The Southeast... Afternoon heating/destabilization along a weak/remnant baroclinic zone lying across the Southeast will again promote scattered thunderstorm development. Though limited shear expected across the area suggests largely disorganized storms, moderate mid-level westerly flow could support a couple of semi-organized, eastward-moving clusters with localized gusts mainly in the 45-60 mph range and resulting in pockets of wind damage. ..Smith.. 07/04/2023 Read more

WW 0441 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 441 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW RIW TO 35 NE COD TO 50 E BIL. ..FLOURNOY..07/03/23 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 441 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-075-032240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER POWDER RIVER SDC007-019-033-047-055-063-071-081-093-095-102-103-105-121-123- 137-032240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER FALL RIVER HAAKON HARDING JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON PERKINS TODD TRIPP ZIEBACH WYC003-005-011-017-019-033-043-045-032240- WY Read more

WW 441 SEVERE TSTM MT SD WY 032100Z - 040600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 441 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM MDT Mon Jul 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far southeast Montana Western South Dakota Northern Wyoming * Effective this Monday afternoon from 300 PM until Midnight MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple scenarios are expected this evening. A couple supercells should initially develop over the Black Hills and along a front over southwest South Dakota. Very large hail will be the main threat with these storms. A fast-moving cluster over northern Wyoming should develop into an MCS with embedded supercells and bowing structures spreading across western South Dakota later this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west southwest of Sheridan WY to 15 miles east northeast of Philip SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 438...WW 439...WW 440... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27045. ...Grams Read more

WW 0440 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 440 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW SHD TO 5 WNW MRB TO 35 SSE IPT. ..FLOURNOY..07/03/23 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 440 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-032240- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-032240- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-037- 041-043-510-032240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD Read more

WW 440 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ PA VA WV CW 031855Z - 040200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 440 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Maryland New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Northern and central Virginia Eastern West Virginia Panhandle Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered discrete storms should consolidate into a couple multicell clusters that spread east-northeast into this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles east northeast of Allentown PA to 55 miles southwest of Washington DC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 438...WW 439... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Grams Read more

WW 0439 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 439 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE EWN TO 20 NE ILM TO 35 W OAJ TO 20 SSW AVC. ..FLOURNOY..07/03/23 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 439 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC019-039-045-047-032240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DORCHESTER SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER NCC013-015-029-031-033-041-049-053-055-061-073-079-091-095-103- 107-117-131-133-137-139-143-147-157-169-171-177-187-193-197- 032240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CASWELL CHOWAN CRAVEN CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN GATES GREENE HERTFORD HYDE JONES LENOIR MARTIN NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT ROCKINGHAM STOKES SURRY TYRRELL Read more

WW 439 SEVERE TSTM MD NC VA CW 031845Z - 040200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 439 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far southeast Maryland Eastern and northwest North Carolina Southern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A few widely spaced multicell clusters will likely develop, initially along the coastal plain of North Carolina and Virginia, and separately off the higher terrain near the North Carolina and Virginia border. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles south southwest of Wilmington NC to 55 miles west northwest of Wallops VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 438... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 22030. ...Grams Read more

WW 0438 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 438 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE CXY TO 20 SW UCA. ..FLOURNOY..07/03/23 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...ALY...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 438 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC003-027-031-037-041-032240- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN MORRIS PASSAIC SUSSEX WARREN NYC001-007-017-021-025-027-039-071-077-079-083-087-093-095-105- 111-119-032240- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY BROOME CHENANGO COLUMBIA DELAWARE DUTCHESS GREENE ORANGE OTSEGO PUTNAM RENSSELAER ROCKLAND SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE SULLIVAN ULSTER WESTCHESTER PAC025-069-079-089-095-103-115-127-131-032240- Read more

WW 438 SEVERE TSTM NJ NY PA 031820Z - 040000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 438 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern New Jersey Southeast New York Northeast Pennsylvania * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Slower-moving cells may congeal into a couple multicell clusters with a primary threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles southeast of Wilkesbarre PA to 60 miles west northwest of Pittsfield MA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Grams Read more

MD 1411 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439...440... FOR PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 1411 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023 Areas affected...Portion of the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439...440... Valid 032049Z - 032245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439, 440 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging winds will continue to be possible across much of the Mid-Atlantic the remainder of this afternoon. There remains some potential for convection within the northern Blue Ridge to intensify as it moves east. DISCUSSION...The strongest storms within the Mid-Atlantic region have been in the Virginia Beach, VA vicinity into northeast North Carolina. The organized cluster of storms there have produced wind damage reports. This activity may move offshore in the next 1-2 hours. Convection has been more isolated in central Virginia, but MRMS radar has shown strong cores with some of these storms as they move eastward. The current activity will continue to pose a threat of damaging winds given the strong surface heating and steep low-level lapse rates. Earlier cloud cover has hindered convective development along northern portions of the Blue Ridge. As this cloud cover has dissipated, cumulus has become deeper in far northern Virginia/central Maryland. The moist airmass downstream will continue to destabilize over the next couple of hours. As such, eastern portions of Maryland into southern New Jersey should eventually get impacted by intensifying storms from the northern Blue Ridge along with storms moving in from central Virginia. ..Wendt.. 07/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...CTP...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 37107825 37227857 37707862 38467850 38977832 39307816 39707784 40167727 40447648 40337446 39697411 38517497 36757571 35997573 35547603 35567659 35937686 36687704 37037725 37137758 37107825 Read more

MD 1410 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NE...SOUTHEASTERN SD...SOUTHWESTERN MN...AND NORTHWESTERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1410 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023 Areas affected...portions of northeastern NE...southeastern SD...southwestern MN...and northwestern IA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032048Z - 032245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the next few hours. Local wind gusts and small hail are possible. Watch issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorms have developed along a cold front draped from south-central MN west-southwestward along the SD/NE border. The front continues to slowly sag southward, with the environment along and ahead of it generally characterized by MLCAPE around 2000+ J/kg and effective shear around 15 kts. Current VAD and short-term forecast profiles depict modest low-level shear with little shear above the boundary layer. While the primary belt of mid-level flow resides farther north, sufficient boundary-layer mixing should support continued updraft development and maturation through the afternoon. Multicell/pulse evolution is expected given the overall meager kinematic environment. Steep mid-level lapse rates and relatively high cloud bases might support local gusty winds and small hail prior to a general weakening trend closer to sunset. ..Flournoy/Grams.. 07/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 44139702 44389631 44779569 44809496 44429447 43929421 43469433 43059485 42639599 42379755 42179863 42099942 42319997 42910045 43560027 43849946 43919818 44139702 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST WY/WESTERN SD AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A swath of severe wind gusts from 60-80 mph and isolated very large hail are probable across a portion of northeast Wyoming into western South Dakota this evening. Scattered damaging winds from strong to isolated severe gusts are likely across parts of the Mid-Atlantic States through early evening. ...Discussion... No appreciable changes were made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 07/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023/ ...Lee of the Big Horns through SD... A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will shift east and yield a strengthening mid-level speed max across eastern MT by this evening. Trailing portion of a cold front will become quasi-stationary across southern SD with post-frontal upslope flow expected over the Big Horns and Black Hills. A plume of enhanced low-level moisture near/north of the front in conjunction with steep mid-level lapse rates will support a corridor of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg. With weak low-level easterlies beneath the strengthening mid-level westerlies, hodographs should become quite elongated and nearly straight, yielding at least a few supercells with left/right-splits. Isolated very large hail is expected initially. The strong forcing for ascent and cold pool consolidation may result in a small MCS with potential for bowing structures centered on the western SD vicinity this evening. This would likely yield an increased severe wind threat of 60-80 mph gusts. Increasing MLCIN after sunset in conjunction with the narrowness of the buoyancy plume should yield a relatively confined swath/more isolated severe wind threat overnight into eastern SD. ...Mid-Atlantic States A slowly weakening mid-level trough over the Lower Great Lakes will gradually progress across the Northeast through tonight. Differential boundary-layer heating across a lee trough along the central to southern Appalachians will be the focus for scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. A belt of enhanced 35-45 kt west-southwesterlies was sampled at 2-5 km MSL in 12Z soundings across VA to the DE Valley. While this flow regime will slowly subside/shift east through the day, it will remain favorable for widely spaced multicell clusters that evolve into short-line segments spreading east towards the coast. Hodographs will be relatively straight and modestly elongated, especially with northern extent, but mid-level lapse rates will remain weak. This suggests severe hail will probably remain isolated, but even small hail should help to enhance water-loaded downdrafts. Multiple swaths of at least scattered damaging winds are likely through early evening. ...Deep South to OK... Remnants of a weakening cold front will serve as an effective surface trough/boundary-layer moisture gradient arcing west from the TN Valley to an MCV over western OK. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along this arc during the afternoon with moderately large buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. Despite weak vertical shear, water-loaded downdrafts will support sporadic damaging winds through about dusk. ...MN vicinity... Scattered thunderstorms will develop along a cold front from northeast to southwest MN this afternoon. Deep-layer vertical shear will be rather weak, as the front remains displaced well east of stronger mid-level flow attendant to the SK/MB upper low. But large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg will support pulse to weakly congealing clusters along the front with primary threats of sporadic microbursts and hail. ...Central Rockies to northern Great Basin... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon. Inverted-V profiles with modest CAPE and large DCAPE, in combination with the southern periphery of 25-40 kt mid-level flow, will support the potential for at least isolated strong-severe outflow gusts of 55-70 mph. Read more