Severe Storms

WW 383 SEVERE TSTM AR MO MS TN 252210Z - 260500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 383 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 510 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Arkansas Far Southeast Missouri Northern Mississippi Western Tennessee * Effective this Sunday afternoon from 510 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will continue to develop east-southeastward across the region within a very unstable environment amidst seasonally strong winds aloft. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west of Memphis TN to 35 miles east of Jackson TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 374...WW 375...WW 376...WW 377...WW 378...WW 379...WW 381...WW 382... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0381 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 381 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1264 ..WEINMAN..06/25/23 ATTN...WFO...ILN...DTX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 381 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC029-041-047-115-137-155-161-177-252340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DEARBORN FAYETTE FRANKLIN OHIO RIPLEY SWITZERLAND UNION WAYNE KYC015-023-037-041-077-081-117-135-161-187-191-201-252340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BRACKEN CAMPBELL CARROLL GALLATIN GRANT KENTON LEWIS MASON OWEN PENDLETON ROBERTSON MIC091-115-161-163-252340- MI Read more

WW 381 TORNADO IN KY MI OH LE 252020Z - 260300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 381 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 420 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Indiana Northeast Kentucky Southeast Lower Michigan Western to central Ohio Lake Erie * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 420 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A broader convective line with embedded intense supercells will move east from Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan. Greatest tornado threat will be near the Indiana, Kentucky, and Ohio border area. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles south southeast of Cincinnati OH to 10 miles north northeast of Detroit MI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 374...WW 375...WW 376...WW 377...WW 378...WW 379... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Grams Read more

WW 0379 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 379 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N PAH TO 40 ESE BMG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1264 ..WEINMAN..06/25/23 ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 379 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC019-025-037-043-061-077-117-123-129-143-147-163-173-175- 252340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD DUBOIS FLOYD HARRISON JEFFERSON ORANGE PERRY POSEY SCOTT SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK WASHINGTON KYC005-017-021-027-029-031-045-049-059-061-067-073-079-085-087- 091-093-097-099-101-103-107-111-113-123-137-149-151-155-163-167- 177-179-181-183-185-209-211-215-217-223-225-229-233-239- 252340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BOURBON BOYLE BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT BUTLER Read more

WW 379 TORNADO IN KY 251955Z - 260300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 379 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Indiana Western and central Kentucky * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Trailing supercells should further increase across the Lower Ohio Valley and eventually cluster into an east-southeast moving MCS into central Kentucky later this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast of Louisville KY to 45 miles south southeast of Owensboro KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 374...WW 375...WW 376...WW 377...WW 378... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 28035. ...Grams Read more

WW 0378 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 378 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1260 ..WEINMAN..06/25/23 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 378 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-023-029-033-045-047-051-053-059-063-065-067-069-071-075- 083-085-087-095-097-101-105-113-115-117-119-125-127-129-131-135- 137-141-143-145-147-149-252340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS CLEBURNE CONWAY CRAWFORD FAULKNER FRANKLIN GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAWRENCE LOGAN LONOKE MADISON MONROE MONTGOMERY NEWTON PERRY POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON WHITE WOODRUFF YELL OKC001-021-061-077-079-091-101-121-135-145-252340- Read more

WW 378 SEVERE TSTM AR OK 251935Z - 260300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 378 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 235 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and central Arkansas Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 85 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Initial supercells will rapidly develop across northern Arkansas into eastern Oklahoma and should eventually cluster towards central Arkansas this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles southwest of Muskogee OK to 50 miles south southeast of Batesville AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 374...WW 375...WW 376...WW 377... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 650. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Grams Read more

WW 0377 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 377 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE HSV TO 50 NNW AHN. ..WEINMAN..06/25/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 377 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC009-015-019-027-029-055-073-111-115-117-121-127-133-252340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLOUNT CALHOUN CHEROKEE CLAY CLEBURNE ETOWAH JEFFERSON RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SHELBY TALLADEGA WALKER WINSTON GAC015-045-055-057-067-085-097-115-117-121-129-143-149-187-223- 227-233-252340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTOW CARROLL CHATTOOGA CHEROKEE COBB DAWSON DOUGLAS FLOYD FORSYTH FULTON GORDON HARALSON HEARD LUMPKIN PAULDING PICKENS POLK Read more

WW 377 SEVERE TSTM AL GA 251925Z - 260000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 377 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 225 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Alabama Northern Georgia * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 225 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Multicell clusters will continue to spread south and east from Tennessee and far northern Alabama through early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles east northeast of Rome GA to 30 miles northwest of Birmingham AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 374...WW 375...WW 376... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 32020. ...Grams Read more

WW 0376 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 376 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE TUP TO 55 NW AND. ..WEINMAN..06/25/23 ATTN...WFO...HUN...OHX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 376 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC043-049-059-071-079-089-095-103-252340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CULLMAN DEKALB FRANKLIN JACKSON LAWRENCE MADISON MARSHALL MORGAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 376 SEVERE TSTM AL TN 251810Z - 252300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 376 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 110 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Alabama Middle and eastern Tennessee * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Multicell clusters will spread southeast this afternoon with a primary threat of damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Muscle Shoals AL to 15 miles south of Knoxville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 374...WW 375... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 32020. ...Grams Read more

WW 0375 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 375 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW JXN TO 25 ENE GRR TO 40 NNW MBL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1261 ..WEINMAN..06/25/23 ATTN...WFO...GRR...APX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 375 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC019-035-037-039-051-055-057-065-067-073-075-079-085-101-107- 113-117-133-143-165-252340- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENZIE CLARE CLINTON CRAWFORD GLADWIN GRAND TRAVERSE GRATIOT INGHAM IONIA ISABELLA JACKSON KALKASKA LAKE MANISTEE MECOSTA MISSAUKEE MONTCALM OSCEOLA ROSCOMMON WEXFORD LMZ346-849-252340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI Read more

WW 375 SEVERE TSTM MI LM 251755Z - 252300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 375 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western to central Lower Michigan Lake Michigan * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Clusters with embedded supercells, especially across southwest Lower Michigan, will spread east-northeast through the afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northwest of Houghton Lake MI to 15 miles southeast of Kalamazoo MI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 374... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Grams Read more

WW 0374 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 374 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S BMG TO 25 NE IND TO 20 ENE AZO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1264 ..WEINMAN..06/25/23 ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 374 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC001-003-005-009-013-031-033-035-053-059-065-069-071-075-079- 081-093-095-135-139-145-179-183-252240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BARTHOLOMEW BLACKFORD BROWN DECATUR DE KALB DELAWARE GRANT HANCOCK HENRY HUNTINGTON JACKSON JAY JENNINGS JOHNSON LAWRENCE MADISON RANDOLPH RUSH SHELBY WELLS WHITLEY MIC059-252240- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HILLSDALE Read more

WW 374 TORNADO IN MI OH LM 251735Z - 260000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 374...CORRECTED NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 CORRECTED FOR TIME ZONE The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Indiana Far southern Lower Michigan Northwest Ohio Lake Michigan * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Initial supercells will develop near the Indiana-Michigan border area and arc south through the body of Indiana this afternoon. Wind-driven, very large hail is likely with the tornado threat increasing towards eastern Indiana and northwest Ohio. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles southeast of Bloomington IN to 40 miles northeast of South Bend IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Grams Read more

MD 1264 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 374...379...381... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 1264 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 Areas affected...North-central Kentucky...southern Indiana...southwest Ohio Concerning...Tornado Watch 374...379...381... Valid 252147Z - 252345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 374, 379, 381 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado risk will likely increase over the next few hours with supercells moving east across portions of Tornado Watches 374, 379, and 381. DISCUSSION...Regional radar composite at 2140z shows several discrete supercells from extreme northwest KY northeast into southern Indiana, with a history of very large hail. Over the next 2 to 4 hours, the mesoscale environment will likely become more conducive for tornado development as low-level winds strengthen in association with an upper-level low over Lake Michigan. The environment remains moderately to strongly unstable and with ample deep-layer shear to support continued supercell structures. RAP-based STP values of 6 to locally 8 are forecast in the 23z-02z time frame across much of the discussion area, supporting an increased tornado risk for supercells remaining discrete while moving east-southeast. Given this favorable environment, a strong tornado will be possible. ..Bunting.. 06/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH... LAT...LON 38798661 39158592 39318514 39208438 38888402 38318404 37918431 37558465 37428490 37208537 37278678 37938728 38408703 38798661 Read more

MD 1263 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN MISSOURI...INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY.
Mesoscale Discussion 1263 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 Areas affected...portions of northeastern Arkansas...southern Missouri...into western Tennessee/Kentucky. Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 252145Z - 252315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...New thunderstorm development and ongoing supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts are likely this evening. A Watch will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...Across portions of the mid to lower MS Valley, broad-scale ascent from an approaching upper-low and speed max was beginning to impinge on the northern fringes of a broad warm sector. Late afternoon visible satellite imagery showed cumulus towers slowly deepening along a wind shift boundary demarcating the northern extent of the warm and very moist air mass. Mid to upper 70s dewpoints and 90s F surface temperatures beneath steep mid-level lapse rates are supporting large buoyancy with 3500-4500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Atop the unstable boundary layer, 40-50 kt of effective shear observed from area VADs will support storm reorganization into supercells and linear clusters. With substantial instability and vertical shear, large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be likely with severe storms that form this afternoon/evening. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely needed. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK... LAT...LON 36199117 36619018 37108876 37258825 37028688 35768769 35068892 34709022 34449100 34489123 36199117 Read more

MD 1262 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN WY...FAR NORTHEASTERN CO...AND THE NE PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1262 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0438 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 Areas affected...Parts of southeastern WY...far northeastern CO...and the NE Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 252138Z - 252345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated strong to severe storm or two is possible this afternoon/early evening. Marginally severe hail and locally severe gusts are the primary concerns. DISCUSSION...Isolated convective initiation is underway along the higher terrain in southeastern Wyoming this afternoon -- aided by low-level upslope flow and eroding MLCINH. While weak large-scale ascent and marginal buoyancy limit confidence in storm coverage and longevity, around 50 kt of effective shear (characterized by a long/straight hodograph) will conditionally support splitting supercell structures. Isolated strong/severe gusts and marginally severe hail could accompany any persistent/organized storms that develop over southeastern WY, far northeastern CO, and the NE Panhandle through this evening. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 06/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40630433 40820494 41400519 42070511 42370463 42330371 41590301 40890317 40630433 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/CENTRAL OH VALLEY TO THE MID/DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe storms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Mid and Deep South. The greatest threat for tornadoes, at least a couple of which could be strong, appears to be in central Indiana into western Ohio, and northern Kentucky vicinity through the early evening. ...Discussion... Only minor changes have been primarily due to the reduction of severe probabilities across the southwest Great Lakes. ..Smith.. 06/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023/ ...Central Great Lakes/OH Valley to the Mid/Deep South... Shortwave trough over the Upper MS Valley will shift east into Lower MI tonight. Attendant surface cyclone will similarly track east from west-central WI into west-central Lower MI. Arcing cold front will have greater eastward advancement across parts of the Midwest, with trailing portion drifting south-southeast across the Mid-South. A broad swath of severe potential remains evident ahead of this front, likely yielding scattered areas of severe storms and embedded mesoscale corridors of more numerous reports. Ongoing convection persists across southeast KY into middle/eastern TN and will probably continue along the gradually eastward-shifting, north/south-oriented MLCAPE gradient. An isolated damaging wind threat should exist downstream across the southern Appalachians. A scattered wind/hail threat may emerge within multicell clusters that can regenerate westward later this afternoon over the TN Valley and persist into this evening. Potential for more numerous severe events appears to be focused within two bimodal corridors along/ahead of the front. The first is in the vicinity of eastern IN/western OH/northern KY border. Scattered thunderstorms will increase during the next few hours in the Lake MI vicinity arcing south across IN and then southwest across the Lower OH Valley. In the wake of the morning convection in KY, trailing outflow appears to have finally stalled across western KY and far southwest IN. How far to the northeast recovery can occur in its wake is uncertain, but it is plausible that it may be able to reach the IN/OH/KY border area by late afternoon/early evening. With a plume of mid 70s surface dew points to the west of this outflow, large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg will become common. Despite gradual weakening of the strong mid-level jetlet attendant to the shortwave trough, the leading edge of 50+ kt 500-mb westerlies should overlay the Lower OH Valley portion of the front. This setup will likely yield the best CAPE/shear/SRH parameter space near the IN/OH/KY border area where a few intense supercells are expected, capable of producing strong tornadoes and destructive hail/wind. Quicker upscale growth into clusters/QLCS is expected with northern extent where deep-layer wind profiles will be less favorable for maintaining discrete supercell structures. This activity should eventually outpace/become pinched off from the large buoyancy plume emanating from the Lower OH Valley. A second area of potentially destructive hail and wind should emanate along the AR portion of the front. The 12Z LZK sounding had a very favorable thermodynamic profile with a mean-mixing ratio of 18 g/kg and mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km. With 74-77 F surface dew points common to the south of the front, very large buoyancy of 3500-4000 J/kg will be prevalent by late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will develop across northern AR and quickly become supercells within the gradient of mid/upper west-northwesterly flow. This type of orientation semi-parallel to the front should support upscale growth during the evening. Most morning CAMs are consistent in suggesting an MCS will evolve southeast across the Lower MS Valley with an enhanced threat for damaging winds. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO... The forecast remains largely on track. Made relatively minor adjustments to account for new guidance and fuel information. There is some potential for very isolated dry thunderstorm activity in central New Mexico. Forecast soundings, however, will only be marginally supportive of lightning at best. It appears more probable that activity will produce virga and locally raise RH. ..Wendt.. 06/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023/ ...Synopsis... Across the Southwest, mid-level ridging will begin to slide eastward under the influence of a broad trough over the southern Great Basin. Enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Southwest Day2/Monday, bolstering surface winds atop a warm and very dry air mass. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely over parts of AZ and NM Day2/Monday afternoon and evening. ...Southwest... As the broad upper trough begins to shift eastward Day2/Monday it will partially suppress the sub-tropical ridge centered over parts of the Southwest. This will allow enhanced mid-level flow of 40-50 kt to overspread parts of central and eastern AZ into western NM through the afternoon. A deep and well-mixed boundary layer, with RH of 5-10% from very warm temperatures, should intersect with the stronger flow aloft strengthening surface winds to 20-30 mph and higher gusts. Receptive fuels underlying the favorable meteorological conditions will allow for several hours of critical fire-weather conditions from eastern AZ into western NM Day2/Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more