Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes remain possible this evening over parts of the Great Lakes. ...Great Lakes... Very cold midlevel temperatures will shift east with the upper trough tonight, from Lower MI into the lower Great Lakes. Weakening low-level convergence as well as warming aloft will likely reduce lightning activity from west to east, but sufficient instability and shower activity may still yield a few flashes. ..Jewell.. 11/01/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes remain possible this evening over parts of the Great Lakes. ...Great Lakes... Very cold midlevel temperatures will shift east with the upper trough tonight, from Lower MI into the lower Great Lakes. Weakening low-level convergence as well as warming aloft will likely reduce lightning activity from west to east, but sufficient instability and shower activity may still yield a few flashes. ..Jewell.. 11/01/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes remain possible this evening over parts of the Great Lakes. ...Great Lakes... Very cold midlevel temperatures will shift east with the upper trough tonight, from Lower MI into the lower Great Lakes. Weakening low-level convergence as well as warming aloft will likely reduce lightning activity from west to east, but sufficient instability and shower activity may still yield a few flashes. ..Jewell.. 11/01/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 31 21:58:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Oct 31 21:58:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z The mid/upper-level flow pattern over the CONUS is forecast to become mostly zonal beginning Day 3/Thursday through much of the extended forecast period as a weak ridge builds over portions of the West. At the surface, a large area of high pressure across the Southeast is forecast to gradually weaken from Day 3/Thursday into the weekend. By late Day 4/Friday, developing surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to work in tandem with the surface high across the Southeast to encourage the northward return flow of moisture across the Plains (and eventually areas across the Southeast). ...Southern High Plains... With mid-level zonal flow expected through most of the extended forecast period, occasional gusty downslope winds are possible over parts of eastern New Mexico and the southern High Plains. Despite the increase in winds, a cold air mass and recent precipitation suggest fuels are not overly receptive to fire spread. Thus, while periods of localized dry and windy conditions are possible through early next week, the threat for widespread Critical fire weather conditions is low. ...Southern California... Lingering weak offshore flow is likely to persist across portions of southern California into this weekend. While wind speeds aren't forecast to be very strong, at least occasional periods of gusty winds amidst very dry air and increasingly receptive fuels may support periodic locally elevated fire weather conditions - especially in typically favored mountain and valley areas. ...Southeast... A very dry air mass is forecast to remain across portions of the Southeast Day 3/Thursday as the aforementioned surface high pressure settles into the area. Although fuels are forecast to remain critically receptive, sustained surface winds speeds are forecast to be lighter (near 5 mph) than previous days which should keep widespread Critical fire weather concerns low. ..Elliott.. 10/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z The mid/upper-level flow pattern over the CONUS is forecast to become mostly zonal beginning Day 3/Thursday through much of the extended forecast period as a weak ridge builds over portions of the West. At the surface, a large area of high pressure across the Southeast is forecast to gradually weaken from Day 3/Thursday into the weekend. By late Day 4/Friday, developing surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to work in tandem with the surface high across the Southeast to encourage the northward return flow of moisture across the Plains (and eventually areas across the Southeast). ...Southern High Plains... With mid-level zonal flow expected through most of the extended forecast period, occasional gusty downslope winds are possible over parts of eastern New Mexico and the southern High Plains. Despite the increase in winds, a cold air mass and recent precipitation suggest fuels are not overly receptive to fire spread. Thus, while periods of localized dry and windy conditions are possible through early next week, the threat for widespread Critical fire weather conditions is low. ...Southern California... Lingering weak offshore flow is likely to persist across portions of southern California into this weekend. While wind speeds aren't forecast to be very strong, at least occasional periods of gusty winds amidst very dry air and increasingly receptive fuels may support periodic locally elevated fire weather conditions - especially in typically favored mountain and valley areas. ...Southeast... A very dry air mass is forecast to remain across portions of the Southeast Day 3/Thursday as the aforementioned surface high pressure settles into the area. Although fuels are forecast to remain critically receptive, sustained surface winds speeds are forecast to be lighter (near 5 mph) than previous days which should keep widespread Critical fire weather concerns low. ..Elliott.. 10/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z The mid/upper-level flow pattern over the CONUS is forecast to become mostly zonal beginning Day 3/Thursday through much of the extended forecast period as a weak ridge builds over portions of the West. At the surface, a large area of high pressure across the Southeast is forecast to gradually weaken from Day 3/Thursday into the weekend. By late Day 4/Friday, developing surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to work in tandem with the surface high across the Southeast to encourage the northward return flow of moisture across the Plains (and eventually areas across the Southeast). ...Southern High Plains... With mid-level zonal flow expected through most of the extended forecast period, occasional gusty downslope winds are possible over parts of eastern New Mexico and the southern High Plains. Despite the increase in winds, a cold air mass and recent precipitation suggest fuels are not overly receptive to fire spread. Thus, while periods of localized dry and windy conditions are possible through early next week, the threat for widespread Critical fire weather conditions is low. ...Southern California... Lingering weak offshore flow is likely to persist across portions of southern California into this weekend. While wind speeds aren't forecast to be very strong, at least occasional periods of gusty winds amidst very dry air and increasingly receptive fuels may support periodic locally elevated fire weather conditions - especially in typically favored mountain and valley areas. ...Southeast... A very dry air mass is forecast to remain across portions of the Southeast Day 3/Thursday as the aforementioned surface high pressure settles into the area. Although fuels are forecast to remain critically receptive, sustained surface winds speeds are forecast to be lighter (near 5 mph) than previous days which should keep widespread Critical fire weather concerns low. ..Elliott.. 10/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z The mid/upper-level flow pattern over the CONUS is forecast to become mostly zonal beginning Day 3/Thursday through much of the extended forecast period as a weak ridge builds over portions of the West. At the surface, a large area of high pressure across the Southeast is forecast to gradually weaken from Day 3/Thursday into the weekend. By late Day 4/Friday, developing surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to work in tandem with the surface high across the Southeast to encourage the northward return flow of moisture across the Plains (and eventually areas across the Southeast). ...Southern High Plains... With mid-level zonal flow expected through most of the extended forecast period, occasional gusty downslope winds are possible over parts of eastern New Mexico and the southern High Plains. Despite the increase in winds, a cold air mass and recent precipitation suggest fuels are not overly receptive to fire spread. Thus, while periods of localized dry and windy conditions are possible through early next week, the threat for widespread Critical fire weather conditions is low. ...Southern California... Lingering weak offshore flow is likely to persist across portions of southern California into this weekend. While wind speeds aren't forecast to be very strong, at least occasional periods of gusty winds amidst very dry air and increasingly receptive fuels may support periodic locally elevated fire weather conditions - especially in typically favored mountain and valley areas. ...Southeast... A very dry air mass is forecast to remain across portions of the Southeast Day 3/Thursday as the aforementioned surface high pressure settles into the area. Although fuels are forecast to remain critically receptive, sustained surface winds speeds are forecast to be lighter (near 5 mph) than previous days which should keep widespread Critical fire weather concerns low. ..Elliott.. 10/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z The mid/upper-level flow pattern over the CONUS is forecast to become mostly zonal beginning Day 3/Thursday through much of the extended forecast period as a weak ridge builds over portions of the West. At the surface, a large area of high pressure across the Southeast is forecast to gradually weaken from Day 3/Thursday into the weekend. By late Day 4/Friday, developing surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to work in tandem with the surface high across the Southeast to encourage the northward return flow of moisture across the Plains (and eventually areas across the Southeast). ...Southern High Plains... With mid-level zonal flow expected through most of the extended forecast period, occasional gusty downslope winds are possible over parts of eastern New Mexico and the southern High Plains. Despite the increase in winds, a cold air mass and recent precipitation suggest fuels are not overly receptive to fire spread. Thus, while periods of localized dry and windy conditions are possible through early next week, the threat for widespread Critical fire weather conditions is low. ...Southern California... Lingering weak offshore flow is likely to persist across portions of southern California into this weekend. While wind speeds aren't forecast to be very strong, at least occasional periods of gusty winds amidst very dry air and increasingly receptive fuels may support periodic locally elevated fire weather conditions - especially in typically favored mountain and valley areas. ...Southeast... A very dry air mass is forecast to remain across portions of the Southeast Day 3/Thursday as the aforementioned surface high pressure settles into the area. Although fuels are forecast to remain critically receptive, sustained surface winds speeds are forecast to be lighter (near 5 mph) than previous days which should keep widespread Critical fire weather concerns low. ..Elliott.. 10/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z The mid/upper-level flow pattern over the CONUS is forecast to become mostly zonal beginning Day 3/Thursday through much of the extended forecast period as a weak ridge builds over portions of the West. At the surface, a large area of high pressure across the Southeast is forecast to gradually weaken from Day 3/Thursday into the weekend. By late Day 4/Friday, developing surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to work in tandem with the surface high across the Southeast to encourage the northward return flow of moisture across the Plains (and eventually areas across the Southeast). ...Southern High Plains... With mid-level zonal flow expected through most of the extended forecast period, occasional gusty downslope winds are possible over parts of eastern New Mexico and the southern High Plains. Despite the increase in winds, a cold air mass and recent precipitation suggest fuels are not overly receptive to fire spread. Thus, while periods of localized dry and windy conditions are possible through early next week, the threat for widespread Critical fire weather conditions is low. ...Southern California... Lingering weak offshore flow is likely to persist across portions of southern California into this weekend. While wind speeds aren't forecast to be very strong, at least occasional periods of gusty winds amidst very dry air and increasingly receptive fuels may support periodic locally elevated fire weather conditions - especially in typically favored mountain and valley areas. ...Southeast... A very dry air mass is forecast to remain across portions of the Southeast Day 3/Thursday as the aforementioned surface high pressure settles into the area. Although fuels are forecast to remain critically receptive, sustained surface winds speeds are forecast to be lighter (near 5 mph) than previous days which should keep widespread Critical fire weather concerns low. ..Elliott.. 10/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Great Lakes and immediate vicinity, as well as off the southeastern Florida coast. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 10/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential today is expected to remain largely over the Great Lakes and off the southeastern Florida Coast. A compact upper low is evident in mid-morning satellite imagery over southern WI/northern IL. This feature is expected to begin tracking to the east over the next 12 hours in tandem with the mean upper trough. 12 UTC soundings across the Midwest and Great Lakes sampled very cold temperatures aloft associated with this feature (500 mb temperatures between -30 to -40 C), which will overspread the warmer waters of the Great Lakes through the afternoon and evening. While buoyancy will be minimal, lapse rates should be sufficiently steep to support occasional lightning flashes over the Lakes and along the lake shores. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible along a residual boundary off the southeastern FL coast; however, convection should remain offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Great Lakes and immediate vicinity, as well as off the southeastern Florida coast. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 10/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential today is expected to remain largely over the Great Lakes and off the southeastern Florida Coast. A compact upper low is evident in mid-morning satellite imagery over southern WI/northern IL. This feature is expected to begin tracking to the east over the next 12 hours in tandem with the mean upper trough. 12 UTC soundings across the Midwest and Great Lakes sampled very cold temperatures aloft associated with this feature (500 mb temperatures between -30 to -40 C), which will overspread the warmer waters of the Great Lakes through the afternoon and evening. While buoyancy will be minimal, lapse rates should be sufficiently steep to support occasional lightning flashes over the Lakes and along the lake shores. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible along a residual boundary off the southeastern FL coast; however, convection should remain offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Great Lakes and immediate vicinity, as well as off the southeastern Florida coast. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 10/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential today is expected to remain largely over the Great Lakes and off the southeastern Florida Coast. A compact upper low is evident in mid-morning satellite imagery over southern WI/northern IL. This feature is expected to begin tracking to the east over the next 12 hours in tandem with the mean upper trough. 12 UTC soundings across the Midwest and Great Lakes sampled very cold temperatures aloft associated with this feature (500 mb temperatures between -30 to -40 C), which will overspread the warmer waters of the Great Lakes through the afternoon and evening. While buoyancy will be minimal, lapse rates should be sufficiently steep to support occasional lightning flashes over the Lakes and along the lake shores. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible along a residual boundary off the southeastern FL coast; however, convection should remain offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Great Lakes and immediate vicinity, as well as off the southeastern Florida coast. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 10/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential today is expected to remain largely over the Great Lakes and off the southeastern Florida Coast. A compact upper low is evident in mid-morning satellite imagery over southern WI/northern IL. This feature is expected to begin tracking to the east over the next 12 hours in tandem with the mean upper trough. 12 UTC soundings across the Midwest and Great Lakes sampled very cold temperatures aloft associated with this feature (500 mb temperatures between -30 to -40 C), which will overspread the warmer waters of the Great Lakes through the afternoon and evening. While buoyancy will be minimal, lapse rates should be sufficiently steep to support occasional lightning flashes over the Lakes and along the lake shores. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible along a residual boundary off the southeastern FL coast; however, convection should remain offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Great Lakes and immediate vicinity, as well as off the southeastern Florida coast. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 10/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential today is expected to remain largely over the Great Lakes and off the southeastern Florida Coast. A compact upper low is evident in mid-morning satellite imagery over southern WI/northern IL. This feature is expected to begin tracking to the east over the next 12 hours in tandem with the mean upper trough. 12 UTC soundings across the Midwest and Great Lakes sampled very cold temperatures aloft associated with this feature (500 mb temperatures between -30 to -40 C), which will overspread the warmer waters of the Great Lakes through the afternoon and evening. While buoyancy will be minimal, lapse rates should be sufficiently steep to support occasional lightning flashes over the Lakes and along the lake shores. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible along a residual boundary off the southeastern FL coast; however, convection should remain offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Great Lakes and immediate vicinity, as well as off the southeastern Florida coast. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 10/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential today is expected to remain largely over the Great Lakes and off the southeastern Florida Coast. A compact upper low is evident in mid-morning satellite imagery over southern WI/northern IL. This feature is expected to begin tracking to the east over the next 12 hours in tandem with the mean upper trough. 12 UTC soundings across the Midwest and Great Lakes sampled very cold temperatures aloft associated with this feature (500 mb temperatures between -30 to -40 C), which will overspread the warmer waters of the Great Lakes through the afternoon and evening. While buoyancy will be minimal, lapse rates should be sufficiently steep to support occasional lightning flashes over the Lakes and along the lake shores. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible along a residual boundary off the southeastern FL coast; however, convection should remain offshore. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions remain likely for several hours tomorrow afternoon along portions of the Gulf Coast in a cool, but very dry, post-frontal regime where RH values near 20% (locally lower), temperatures in the mid/upper 50s, sustained northerly surface winds of 10-15+ mph, and critically receptive fuels (owing to ongoing Moderate to Exceptional drought) are expected. Primary change with this forecast update was to expand the Elevated fire weather area slightly in all directions based on the latest ensemble guidance and fuel information. Elevated fire weather conditions may also extend farther northward into portions of Georgia where very low RH values (15-25%) are expected amidst receptive fuels. Though, the latest ensemble forecasts keep sustained winds generally around 10 mph, which precludes the expansion of the Elevated area into this region at this time. Locally Elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a few hours tomorrow afternoon across portions of South/North Carolina, where RH values of 25-30% will occur in conjunction with sustained winds of 10-15 mph and at least modestly receptive fuels. At this time, the forecast overlap of lowered minimum RH values and stronger surface winds appears too brief/spotty to introduce an Elevated area. ..Elliott.. 10/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0116 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... A surface anticyclone will track toward the East Coast as a mid-level trough ejects in the Atlantic tomorrow/Wednesday. North-northeasterly surface flow to the south of the anticyclone will promote dry, breezy conditions along portions of the Gulf Coast, which is experiencing a severe to extreme drought. As such, locally stressed vegetation may support some wildfire-spread potential amid 20-30 percent RH and 10+ mph sustained northerly surface winds, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Elevated meteorological surface conditions may also develop across portions of northeast New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle. However, fuels appear marginal at best for wildfire-spread potential, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions remain likely for several hours tomorrow afternoon along portions of the Gulf Coast in a cool, but very dry, post-frontal regime where RH values near 20% (locally lower), temperatures in the mid/upper 50s, sustained northerly surface winds of 10-15+ mph, and critically receptive fuels (owing to ongoing Moderate to Exceptional drought) are expected. Primary change with this forecast update was to expand the Elevated fire weather area slightly in all directions based on the latest ensemble guidance and fuel information. Elevated fire weather conditions may also extend farther northward into portions of Georgia where very low RH values (15-25%) are expected amidst receptive fuels. Though, the latest ensemble forecasts keep sustained winds generally around 10 mph, which precludes the expansion of the Elevated area into this region at this time. Locally Elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a few hours tomorrow afternoon across portions of South/North Carolina, where RH values of 25-30% will occur in conjunction with sustained winds of 10-15 mph and at least modestly receptive fuels. At this time, the forecast overlap of lowered minimum RH values and stronger surface winds appears too brief/spotty to introduce an Elevated area. ..Elliott.. 10/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0116 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... A surface anticyclone will track toward the East Coast as a mid-level trough ejects in the Atlantic tomorrow/Wednesday. North-northeasterly surface flow to the south of the anticyclone will promote dry, breezy conditions along portions of the Gulf Coast, which is experiencing a severe to extreme drought. As such, locally stressed vegetation may support some wildfire-spread potential amid 20-30 percent RH and 10+ mph sustained northerly surface winds, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Elevated meteorological surface conditions may also develop across portions of northeast New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle. However, fuels appear marginal at best for wildfire-spread potential, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions remain likely for several hours tomorrow afternoon along portions of the Gulf Coast in a cool, but very dry, post-frontal regime where RH values near 20% (locally lower), temperatures in the mid/upper 50s, sustained northerly surface winds of 10-15+ mph, and critically receptive fuels (owing to ongoing Moderate to Exceptional drought) are expected. Primary change with this forecast update was to expand the Elevated fire weather area slightly in all directions based on the latest ensemble guidance and fuel information. Elevated fire weather conditions may also extend farther northward into portions of Georgia where very low RH values (15-25%) are expected amidst receptive fuels. Though, the latest ensemble forecasts keep sustained winds generally around 10 mph, which precludes the expansion of the Elevated area into this region at this time. Locally Elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a few hours tomorrow afternoon across portions of South/North Carolina, where RH values of 25-30% will occur in conjunction with sustained winds of 10-15 mph and at least modestly receptive fuels. At this time, the forecast overlap of lowered minimum RH values and stronger surface winds appears too brief/spotty to introduce an Elevated area. ..Elliott.. 10/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0116 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... A surface anticyclone will track toward the East Coast as a mid-level trough ejects in the Atlantic tomorrow/Wednesday. North-northeasterly surface flow to the south of the anticyclone will promote dry, breezy conditions along portions of the Gulf Coast, which is experiencing a severe to extreme drought. As such, locally stressed vegetation may support some wildfire-spread potential amid 20-30 percent RH and 10+ mph sustained northerly surface winds, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Elevated meteorological surface conditions may also develop across portions of northeast New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle. However, fuels appear marginal at best for wildfire-spread potential, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more