Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... After emerging from a strong jet nosing across the southern mid-latitude Pacific, a short wave trough, approaching the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by 12Z Thursday, is forecast to continue inland through the period. As it progresses through the crest of lingering larger-scale mid-level ridging along the North American Pacific coast, models indicate that an associated surface cyclone and trailing front will continue to occlude and rapidly weaken while advancing onshore. Little appreciable destabilization is forecast, with thermodynamic profiles largely remaining unsupportive of convection capable of producing lightning. East of the Rockies, although temperatures may begin to moderate, cold surface ridging is forecast to be maintained across the northwestern Gulf coast, lower Mississippi Valley, and much of the Southeast into the northwestern Atlantic. ..Kerr.. 11/01/2023 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... After emerging from a strong jet nosing across the southern mid-latitude Pacific, a short wave trough, approaching the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by 12Z Thursday, is forecast to continue inland through the period. As it progresses through the crest of lingering larger-scale mid-level ridging along the North American Pacific coast, models indicate that an associated surface cyclone and trailing front will continue to occlude and rapidly weaken while advancing onshore. Little appreciable destabilization is forecast, with thermodynamic profiles largely remaining unsupportive of convection capable of producing lightning. East of the Rockies, although temperatures may begin to moderate, cold surface ridging is forecast to be maintained across the northwestern Gulf coast, lower Mississippi Valley, and much of the Southeast into the northwestern Atlantic. ..Kerr.. 11/01/2023 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... After emerging from a strong jet nosing across the southern mid-latitude Pacific, a short wave trough, approaching the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by 12Z Thursday, is forecast to continue inland through the period. As it progresses through the crest of lingering larger-scale mid-level ridging along the North American Pacific coast, models indicate that an associated surface cyclone and trailing front will continue to occlude and rapidly weaken while advancing onshore. Little appreciable destabilization is forecast, with thermodynamic profiles largely remaining unsupportive of convection capable of producing lightning. East of the Rockies, although temperatures may begin to moderate, cold surface ridging is forecast to be maintained across the northwestern Gulf coast, lower Mississippi Valley, and much of the Southeast into the northwestern Atlantic. ..Kerr.. 11/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible today. ...Synopsis... A relatively stable pattern will continue today regarding thunderstorm potential, with little to no instability present over the CONUS to support storms. A large-scale upper trough will exist over the Northeast early this morning, with low heights extending into the Southeast. This trough will lift northeastward through the period, with high pressure over much of the central and eastern CONUS. This will maintain offshore flow and a stable air mass in those areas. To the west, an upper ridge will exist near the West Coast, with height falls late toward the coastal Pacific Northwest. Minimal instability is forecast, and while weak embedded convection cannot be ruled out with precipitation late and near the OR Coast, the threat of storms appears less than 10%. ..Jewell.. 11/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible today. ...Synopsis... A relatively stable pattern will continue today regarding thunderstorm potential, with little to no instability present over the CONUS to support storms. A large-scale upper trough will exist over the Northeast early this morning, with low heights extending into the Southeast. This trough will lift northeastward through the period, with high pressure over much of the central and eastern CONUS. This will maintain offshore flow and a stable air mass in those areas. To the west, an upper ridge will exist near the West Coast, with height falls late toward the coastal Pacific Northwest. Minimal instability is forecast, and while weak embedded convection cannot be ruled out with precipitation late and near the OR Coast, the threat of storms appears less than 10%. ..Jewell.. 11/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible today. ...Synopsis... A relatively stable pattern will continue today regarding thunderstorm potential, with little to no instability present over the CONUS to support storms. A large-scale upper trough will exist over the Northeast early this morning, with low heights extending into the Southeast. This trough will lift northeastward through the period, with high pressure over much of the central and eastern CONUS. This will maintain offshore flow and a stable air mass in those areas. To the west, an upper ridge will exist near the West Coast, with height falls late toward the coastal Pacific Northwest. Minimal instability is forecast, and while weak embedded convection cannot be ruled out with precipitation late and near the OR Coast, the threat of storms appears less than 10%. ..Jewell.. 11/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible today. ...Synopsis... A relatively stable pattern will continue today regarding thunderstorm potential, with little to no instability present over the CONUS to support storms. A large-scale upper trough will exist over the Northeast early this morning, with low heights extending into the Southeast. This trough will lift northeastward through the period, with high pressure over much of the central and eastern CONUS. This will maintain offshore flow and a stable air mass in those areas. To the west, an upper ridge will exist near the West Coast, with height falls late toward the coastal Pacific Northwest. Minimal instability is forecast, and while weak embedded convection cannot be ruled out with precipitation late and near the OR Coast, the threat of storms appears less than 10%. ..Jewell.. 11/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible today. ...Synopsis... A relatively stable pattern will continue today regarding thunderstorm potential, with little to no instability present over the CONUS to support storms. A large-scale upper trough will exist over the Northeast early this morning, with low heights extending into the Southeast. This trough will lift northeastward through the period, with high pressure over much of the central and eastern CONUS. This will maintain offshore flow and a stable air mass in those areas. To the west, an upper ridge will exist near the West Coast, with height falls late toward the coastal Pacific Northwest. Minimal instability is forecast, and while weak embedded convection cannot be ruled out with precipitation late and near the OR Coast, the threat of storms appears less than 10%. ..Jewell.. 11/01/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and cooler temperatures will linger across portions of the Southeast to the East Coast as relatively zonal upper-level flow becomes established over the CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Weak forcing associated with the aforementioned weather patterns should continue to promote dry surface conditions across the southeast quadrant of the CONUS tomorrow. However, surface winds will also be weak, with wildfire-spread potential expected to remain localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and cooler temperatures will linger across portions of the Southeast to the East Coast as relatively zonal upper-level flow becomes established over the CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Weak forcing associated with the aforementioned weather patterns should continue to promote dry surface conditions across the southeast quadrant of the CONUS tomorrow. However, surface winds will also be weak, with wildfire-spread potential expected to remain localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and cooler temperatures will linger across portions of the Southeast to the East Coast as relatively zonal upper-level flow becomes established over the CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Weak forcing associated with the aforementioned weather patterns should continue to promote dry surface conditions across the southeast quadrant of the CONUS tomorrow. However, surface winds will also be weak, with wildfire-spread potential expected to remain localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and cooler temperatures will linger across portions of the Southeast to the East Coast as relatively zonal upper-level flow becomes established over the CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Weak forcing associated with the aforementioned weather patterns should continue to promote dry surface conditions across the southeast quadrant of the CONUS tomorrow. However, surface winds will also be weak, with wildfire-spread potential expected to remain localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and cooler temperatures will linger across portions of the Southeast to the East Coast as relatively zonal upper-level flow becomes established over the CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Weak forcing associated with the aforementioned weather patterns should continue to promote dry surface conditions across the southeast quadrant of the CONUS tomorrow. However, surface winds will also be weak, with wildfire-spread potential expected to remain localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler temperatures will drift eastward from the Plains States to the Eastern Seaboard in tandem with an upper trough that is poised to eject into the Atlantic today. Dry northerly flow will persist across the Gulf Coast states into the Southeast, overspreading drought-stricken fuels that have received minimal rainfall over the last few weeks. Elevated highlights remain in place since RH should drop below 30 percent by afternoon peak heating, with winds potentially gusting over 15 mph. Dry and breezy downslope flow may also occur across portions of northeast New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle. However, fuels appear to be too marginal in receptiveness to warrant fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler temperatures will drift eastward from the Plains States to the Eastern Seaboard in tandem with an upper trough that is poised to eject into the Atlantic today. Dry northerly flow will persist across the Gulf Coast states into the Southeast, overspreading drought-stricken fuels that have received minimal rainfall over the last few weeks. Elevated highlights remain in place since RH should drop below 30 percent by afternoon peak heating, with winds potentially gusting over 15 mph. Dry and breezy downslope flow may also occur across portions of northeast New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle. However, fuels appear to be too marginal in receptiveness to warrant fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler temperatures will drift eastward from the Plains States to the Eastern Seaboard in tandem with an upper trough that is poised to eject into the Atlantic today. Dry northerly flow will persist across the Gulf Coast states into the Southeast, overspreading drought-stricken fuels that have received minimal rainfall over the last few weeks. Elevated highlights remain in place since RH should drop below 30 percent by afternoon peak heating, with winds potentially gusting over 15 mph. Dry and breezy downslope flow may also occur across portions of northeast New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle. However, fuels appear to be too marginal in receptiveness to warrant fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler temperatures will drift eastward from the Plains States to the Eastern Seaboard in tandem with an upper trough that is poised to eject into the Atlantic today. Dry northerly flow will persist across the Gulf Coast states into the Southeast, overspreading drought-stricken fuels that have received minimal rainfall over the last few weeks. Elevated highlights remain in place since RH should drop below 30 percent by afternoon peak heating, with winds potentially gusting over 15 mph. Dry and breezy downslope flow may also occur across portions of northeast New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle. However, fuels appear to be too marginal in receptiveness to warrant fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler temperatures will drift eastward from the Plains States to the Eastern Seaboard in tandem with an upper trough that is poised to eject into the Atlantic today. Dry northerly flow will persist across the Gulf Coast states into the Southeast, overspreading drought-stricken fuels that have received minimal rainfall over the last few weeks. Elevated highlights remain in place since RH should drop below 30 percent by afternoon peak heating, with winds potentially gusting over 15 mph. Dry and breezy downslope flow may also occur across portions of northeast New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle. However, fuels appear to be too marginal in receptiveness to warrant fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes remain possible this evening over parts of the Great Lakes. ...Great Lakes... Very cold midlevel temperatures will shift east with the upper trough tonight, from Lower MI into the lower Great Lakes. Weakening low-level convergence as well as warming aloft will likely reduce lightning activity from west to east, but sufficient instability and shower activity may still yield a few flashes. ..Jewell.. 11/01/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes remain possible this evening over parts of the Great Lakes. ...Great Lakes... Very cold midlevel temperatures will shift east with the upper trough tonight, from Lower MI into the lower Great Lakes. Weakening low-level convergence as well as warming aloft will likely reduce lightning activity from west to east, but sufficient instability and shower activity may still yield a few flashes. ..Jewell.. 11/01/2023 Read more