Severe Storms

WW 0108 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0108 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 108 SEVERE TSTM CT MA NJ NY CW 012115Z - 020200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 108 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 515 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Connecticut Western Massachusetts Northern New Jersey Southern and Eastern New York Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 515 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A cluster of storms will continue eastward across the region toward western New England, while additional/semi-isolated storms might also develop across southern New York. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Albany NY to 20 miles southwest of Islip NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 105...WW 106...WW 107... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0432 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE AND EASTERN MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0432 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023 Areas affected...parts of eastern Pennsylvania...New Jersey...Delaware and eastern Maryland and southern New York Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107... Valid 012037Z - 012230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107 continues. SUMMARY...Storms may rejuvenate along the front as it moves into eastern Pennsylvania and southern New York, with additional develop possible ahead of the front from the Delmarva into New Jersey. Damaging winds are likely, with a risk of isolated tornadoes and large hail by early evening. DISCUSSION...Showers and embedded thunderstorms continue to move rapidly east with the cold front, with a relative decrease in severe wind gusts compared to earlier in the day, due in part to limited moisture. East of the ongoing central PA/NY activity, temperatures continue to warm, with a recent trend of a few stations reporting rising dewpoints across southern NJ and far southeast PA. Satellite imagery shows increasing CU over parts of MD, though this activity is currently shallow. Over the next 1-2 hours, additional storms are expected to form from the Delmarva across far eastern PA and into NJ, as lift increases. Some storms may become supercells, and the tornado risk will also increase through early evening coincident with strengthening low-level shear and cooling aloft. Any increase in dewpoints will also increase the probability of a tornado. Activity may become linear as the cold front overtakes any activity ahead of it, with both damaging winds possible across southern NY and New England. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 04/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39247451 38807493 38497501 38207510 38057544 38047582 38447622 38787636 39067639 39647623 40677550 41357499 41457433 41357371 41147340 40807352 40587375 40187396 39717402 39477423 39247451 Read more

WW 0106 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 106 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CEW TO 30 ENE DHN TO 10 ESE ABY TO 40 ENE ABY TO 50 WSW VDI TO 15 SSW VDI TO 20 SE VDI TO 30 ENE VDI TO 30 N SAV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0431 ..LYONS..04/01/23 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...FFC...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 106 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC069-012140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOUSTON FLC059-063-012140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOLMES JACKSON GAC001-003-005-007-017-019-025-027-029-049-051-065-069-071-075- 087-099-101-103-109-131-155-161-173-179-183-185-191-201-205-229- 253-267-275-277-299-305-321-012140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 106 SEVERE TSTM AL FL GA 011745Z - 020000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 106 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Alabama Far Northern Florida Southern Georgia * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Bands of storms, potentially including a few semi-discrete supercells, will intensify and continue east-southeastward across the region this afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west southwest of Dothan AL to 35 miles north northeast of Brunswick GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 105... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds and a couple tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Northeast this evening. Isolated damaging winds will be the main threat across south Georgia this evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to southern New England this evening... The band of convection responsible for numerous wind damage reports and multiple measured severe gusts has temporarily weakened across central PA/NY. However, an increase in low-level moisture beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates across the Mid-Atlantic should result in an uptick in storm intensity this evening into eastern PA/NJ/southeast NY. A mix of line segments and embedded supercells are expected along the pre-frontal wind shift and outflow from ongoing convection, with the potential for damaging winds of 60-70 mph and a couple of tornadoes. ...Northeast Gulf coast to southeast GA this evening... A broken band of strong-severe storms is ongoing along the wind shift, near the southern fringe of the influence of the deep OH Valley midlevel trough. As forcing for ascent weakens gradually and with the onset of diurnal cooling, storm intensity should wane after 00z. In the interim, isolated wind damage and large hail will be possible with storm clusters/supercells, mainly across southeast and south central GA. ..Thompson.. 04/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023/ ...Northeast States... Parts of the region have been upgraded to a categorical Enhanced Risk. This is related to an initial concern for increasingly organized/fast-moving linear low-topped convection moving from eastern Ohio into western portions of Pennsylvania/New York early this afternoon. Although the immediately preceding air mass is not overly moist, ample insolation/heating via cloud-free skies in conjunction with a strong wind field and regionally observed steep lapse rates will support scenario for potentially widespread damaging winds aside from some hail. Farther east, richer boundary-layer moisture will persist closer to the coastal plain across the Delaware/Lower Hudson Valleys. While pervasive cloud cover persists at midday (roughly within 75-100 miles of the Atlantic Coast at 16z), steady clearing is expected this afternoon based on radar/satellite trends. Environment will support both a conditional supercell environment as well as persistence/potential rejuvenation of the upstream fast-moving convective line. If a few supercells materialize, tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds would all be possible, and damaging winds are otherwise probable with the inbound convective line roughly centered in the 21z-01z time frame for eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, southern New York/NYC Metro vicinity. ...Southeast States... Deep-layer flow will gradually trend more westerly with time as the strong upper low advances east across the Ohio Valley. Pre-frontal convection currently extends from central Georgia to southern Alabama at midday, and this will continue to advance east-southeast through the day. While the primary large-scale forcing will spread well north of this region, deep-layer flow will be strong and organized clusters/short-line segments are expected. Damaging winds should be the primary concern, though some risk for a tornado or two exists as well. Read more

MD 0431 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 106... FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME NORTHERN FLORIDA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0431 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023 Areas affected...southeastern Alabama...southern Georgia...far southwestern South Carolina and extreme northern Florida. Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106... Valid 012004Z - 012130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for a few damaging gusts and a brief tornado will remain this afternoon with isolated thunderstorms. DISCUSSION...As of 1955 UTC, regional radar analysis showed isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms ongoing ahead of a slow moving cold front across portions of southwestern SC, southern GA, and far southeastern AL. A few damaging wind reports have been received over the last few hours as storms have gradually moved south and east. The risk for damaging gusts may continue as sufficient buoyancy (~1000 J/kg of MCLAPE) for strong updrafts exists across far southern GA into northern FL. Vertical shear also remains sufficient for organized short line segments and marginal supercell structures. However, surface flow has continued to veer and weaken with southward extent this afternoon. Recent HRRR forecasts and observational trends suggest the primary severe risk will remain with the more organized storms over southern GA and eventually northern FL. Given the potential for storms to persist in the unstable and moderately sheared environment, a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado should continue for a few more hours. ..Lyons.. 04/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 30808593 31008596 31378494 31768383 31978313 32378255 32528211 32618182 32668159 32618126 32488110 32288102 31928104 31368150 30948159 30668190 30538225 30538266 30608448 30638524 30658562 30808593 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... Expanded the Elevated and Critical delineation northward across the Colorado Front Range where fuels have started to dry and winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected Sunday. In addition, expanded the Elevated area to the west across eastern Arizona and western New Mexico where fuels have started to dry and winds of 25 mph with single digit relative humidity is expected. Otherwise, the ongoing forecast remains on track. ..Bentley.. 04/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave impulse will move across New Mexico and Texas on Sunday bringing increasing westerly flow aloft. Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico and western Texas. ...Eastern New Mexico and Western Texas... Winds will likely begin to mix early Sunday morning across portions of western Texas and eastern New Mexico as the shortwave approaches. Very dry conditions will already be in place with temperatures warming into the afternoon. Relative humidity reductions to around 10 percent (locally as low as 5-7 percent) will be possible with sustained winds around 15-20 mph (locally up to 25 mph). This in combination with ERCs approaching the 70-80th percentile after several days of drying support a Critical delineation across eastern New Mexico and western Texas from the Texas Panhandle south to Trans Pecos and eastward to Caprock. ...Central New Mexico and the Oklahoma Panhandle southward to the Rolling Plains of Texas... A broader region of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across areas near and south of the Albuquerque area as well as further east into the Oklahoma Panhandle and Rolling Plains of Texas. Winds within this region are less certain, though areas of sustained winds up to 15-20 mph will be possible with locally Critical fire weather concerns. Potential expansion of the Critical area may be needed in further updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0105 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 105 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW HLG TO 15 SSE HLG TO 20 WNW LBE TO 35 S DUJ TO 10 SSE DUJ TO 20 WSW BFD TO 10 WNW JHW TO 55 NNE ERI. ..JEWELL..04/01/23 ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 105 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC003-009-013-029-037-051-055-063-069-073-117-121-011940- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY CATTARAUGUS CHAUTAUQUA ERIE GENESEE LIVINGSTON MONROE NIAGARA ONTARIO ORLEANS WAYNE WYOMING PAC021-023-033-047-051-059-083-105-111-129-011940- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMBRIA CAMERON CLEARFIELD ELK FAYETTE GREENE MCKEAN POTTER SOMERSET WESTMORELAND LEZ040-041-061-011940- Read more

WW 0107 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0107 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 107 SEVERE TSTM NY PA 011825Z - 020000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 107 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 225 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central New York Central and Eastern Pennsylvania * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 225 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving band of storms will pose mainly a damaging wind risk this afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles north northwest of State College PA to 20 miles northeast of Wilkesbarre PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 105...WW 106... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 26050. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ACROSS NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible during the day tomorrow, mainly across north Texas. ...North TX and vicinity through the day... In the wake of a pronounced midlevel trough now moving over the OH Valley/lower Great Lakes, a front will stall along the Gulf coast. Upstream, a shortwave trough now near northern Baja will progress eastward to the southern Plains tomorrow afternoon. In response to the approach of this trough and increasing westerly flow across the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains will result in strengthening southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection during the day across TX. The increasing low-level moisture beneath the eastward extent of a elevated mixed layer plume will support substantial destabilization during the day across north TX. Clusters of mainly elevated storms are probable during the day in the zone of stronger low-level warm advection across northwest TX into southern OK, with sufficient MUCAPE/lapse rates for occasional large hail. Farther south, there will be a few hour window of opportunity for supercells rooted near or at the surface within the southern fringe of the stronger forcing for ascent, close to the surface warm front around mid afternoon. Mid-upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and surface heating in cloud breaks and midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will drive MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg along the warm front, with sufficient deep-layer shear/hodograph length and low-level shear/hodograph curvature for supercells with all hazards. These threats will be focused along the warm front from about 20-00z, with the threat for surface-based supercells diminishing during the evening with passage of the midlevel trough. Otherwise, clusters of slightly elevated storms will spread eastward toward northwest LA/southwest AR and slowly weaken early tomorrow night. ..Thompson.. 04/01/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... The forecast remains on track and no changes were necessary. Some elevated conditions are already present across southeast Colorado and vicinity. Sunny skies will allow additional warming and deep mixing through the afternoon with critical conditions likely developing by 19-20Z. ..Bentley.. 04/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies on Saturday as an embedded shortwave moves eastward across Arizona and into New Mexico. East of the Rockies, lee troughing will develop in response with increased south to southwesterly flow across the Central and Southern High Plains across a very dry post-frontal air mass. Elevated to Critical fire weather will be possible. Dry conditions will extend further south and east but lighter winds will preclude the need for expansion of any areas. ...Eastern CO, Northeastern NM, northwest TX, western OK Panhandle... The Critical area was maintained with this update. HREF guidance still shows the highest conditional probability of Critical conditions across far southeastern Colorado, northeastern New Mexico, west Texas, and the Oklahoma Panhandle. Confidence in relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent within this region is high. Some question remains in the extent of the stronger winds. As such, ensemble guidance was leveraged to narrow down the most likely region of dry/windy overlap with the driest fuels. It is possible that locally Critical fire weather conditions may occur within the broader Elevated region. Minor adjustments were made to expand the Elevated area across the eastern edge further into Oklahoma and Texas. ...Far West Texas near Stockton Plateau and Edwards Plateau... Localized Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be possible across the Stockton and Edwards Plateau Saturday afternoon. Given the localized and largely terrain driven nature of any Critical conditions, no area was included with this update. However areas of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be possible. Drying fuels in this region will likely support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES INCLUDING PARTS OF PA/NY/OH/NJ... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds and a couple tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Northeast this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered damaging winds and a tornado or two remain possible across parts of the Southeast through the afternoon. ...Northeast States... Parts of the region have been upgraded to a categorical Enhanced Risk. This is related to an initial concern for increasingly organized/fast-moving linear low-topped convection moving from eastern Ohio into western portions of Pennsylvania/New York early this afternoon. Although the immediately preceding air mass is not overly moist, ample insolation/heating via cloud-free skies in conjunction with a strong wind field and regionally observed steep lapse rates will support scenario for potentially widespread damaging winds aside from some hail. Farther east, richer boundary-layer moisture will persist closer to the coastal plain across the Delaware/Lower Hudson Valleys. While pervasive cloud cover persists at midday (roughly within 75-100 miles of the Atlantic Coast at 16z), steady clearing is expected this afternoon based on radar/satellite trends. Environment will support both a conditional supercell environment as well as persistence/potential rejuvenation of the upstream fast-moving convective line. If a few supercells materialize, tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds would all be possible, and damaging winds are otherwise probable with the inbound convective line roughly centered in the 21z-01z time frame for eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, southern New York/NYC Metro vicinity. ...Southeast States... Deep-layer flow will gradually trend more westerly with time as the strong upper low advances east across the Ohio Valley. Pre-frontal convection currently extends from central Georgia to southern Alabama at midday, and this will continue to advance east-southeast through the day. While the primary large-scale forcing will spread well north of this region, deep-layer flow will be strong and organized clusters/short-line segments are expected. Damaging winds should be the primary concern, though some risk for a tornado or two exists as well. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/01/2023 Read more

WW 0093 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 93 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE SZL TO 25 WNW IRK TO 35 ESE FOD TO 15 SE FRM. ..BROYLES..03/31/23 ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...DVN...LSX...ILX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 93 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-011-013-015-017-057-061-067-071-073-083-085-095-107- 109-113-117-123-125-129-131-137-143-149-155-161-167-169-171-175- 177-179-187-195-203-312240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN BUREAU CALHOUN CARROLL CASS FULTON GREENE HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY JERSEY JO DAVIESS KNOX LOGAN MCDONOUGH MCLEAN MACOUPIN MARSHALL MASON MENARD MERCER MORGAN PEORIA PIKE PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND SANGAMON SCHUYLER SCOTT STARK STEPHENSON TAZEWELL WARREN WHITESIDE WOODFORD IAC005-007-011-013-017-019-023-031-033-037-043-045-051-055-057- 061-065-067-069-075-081-083-087-089-095-097-099-101-103-105-107- 111-113-115-123-125-127-131-135-139-157-163-171-177-179-183-189- 191-195-312240- Read more

WW 93 TORNADO IA IL MO WI 311645Z - 010100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 93 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Iowa Western Illinois Northern and Central Missouri Southwest Wisconsin * Effective this Friday morning and evening from 1145 AM until 800 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Intense supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and spread eastward across the watch area. Tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are all possible with this activity. Parameters are favorable for the potential for strong/violent tornadoes and very large hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 115 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east of Jefferson City MO to 55 miles east northeast of Mason City IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Hart Read more

WW 0096 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 96 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..03/31/23 ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 96 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-031-037-043-053-063-075-089-091-093-097-099-103-105-111- 141-197-201-312240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE COOK DE KALB DUPAGE FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL LAKE LA SALLE LEE LIVINGSTON MCHENRY OGLE WILL WINNEBAGO INC007-073-089-111-127-312240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER LAKE NEWTON PORTER WIC025-045-049-055-059-065-079-101-105-111-127-133-312240- WI Read more

WW 96 TORNADO IL IN WI LM 311935Z - 010300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 96 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 235 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Illinois Northwest Indiana Southern Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of intense thunderstorms over northwest Illinois will track eastward across the watch area this afternoon, posing a risk of large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. Another line of storms will threaten the area later this afternoon with a second round of severe/tornado threat. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Milwaukee WI to 65 miles south southeast of Marseilles IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 93...WW 94...WW 95... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Hart Read more

MD 0407 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 93... FOR SOUTHEAST IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0407 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Areas affected...Southeast Iowa Concerning...Tornado Watch 93... Valid 312059Z - 312130Z CORRECTED FOR AREAS AFFECTED The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 93 continues. SUMMARY...Likely strong tornado (upper EF2 to EF3) ongoing northeast of Ottumwa. The downstream environment will continue to support the potential for a strong tornado. DISCUSSION...A supercell northeast of Ottumwa has shown increasing low-level rotation with a tornado recently confirmed. Current VROT observations from KDMX are around 60 kts. Given the environment, this would suggest a strong tornado (EF2-EF3) is likely ongoing. The deepening surface low and continued backed surface winds in eastern Iowa will continue to support a strong/intense tornado threat as this storm continues to the north and east. ..Wendt.. 03/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX... LAT...LON 41039220 41039243 41219247 41599221 41909176 41899137 41629134 41399161 41039220 Read more

MD 0406 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 93... FOR TEST
Mesoscale Discussion 0406 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Areas affected...test Concerning...Tornado Watch 93... Valid 312054Z - 312130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 93 continues. SUMMARY...Likely strong tornado (upper EF2 to EF3) ongoing northeast of Ottumwa. The downstream environment will continue to support the potential for a strong tornado. DISCUSSION...A supercell northeast of Ottumwa has shown increasing low-level rotation with a tornado recently confirmed. Current VROT observations from KDMX are around 60 kts. Given the environment, this would suggest a strong tornado (EF2-EF3) is likely ongoing. The deepening surface low and continued backed surface winds in eastern Iowa will continue to support a strong/intense tornado threat as this storm continues to the north and east. ..Wendt.. 03/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX... LAT...LON 41039220 41039243 41219247 41599221 41909176 41899137 41629134 41399161 41039220 Read more