Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... An amplified upper pattern will emerge during the Day 4-8 period. An upper low over the Midwest and an attendant large-scale trough will persist for most of the period while gradually shifting east. Meanwhile, an upper ridge over the western U.S. will remain in place until around Days 7-8/Sat-Sun when an eastern Pacific upper trough moves inland over CA. As surface low pressure and a cold front move offshore the Atlantic coast during the first half of the period, strong surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture will result in dry/stable conditions across much of the CONUS. Some rain/thunderstorm chances may develop across CA late in the period as the aforementioned upper trough moves inland, though severe thunderstorms are not expected. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... An amplified upper pattern will emerge during the Day 4-8 period. An upper low over the Midwest and an attendant large-scale trough will persist for most of the period while gradually shifting east. Meanwhile, an upper ridge over the western U.S. will remain in place until around Days 7-8/Sat-Sun when an eastern Pacific upper trough moves inland over CA. As surface low pressure and a cold front move offshore the Atlantic coast during the first half of the period, strong surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture will result in dry/stable conditions across much of the CONUS. Some rain/thunderstorm chances may develop across CA late in the period as the aforementioned upper trough moves inland, though severe thunderstorms are not expected. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... An amplified upper pattern will emerge during the Day 4-8 period. An upper low over the Midwest and an attendant large-scale trough will persist for most of the period while gradually shifting east. Meanwhile, an upper ridge over the western U.S. will remain in place until around Days 7-8/Sat-Sun when an eastern Pacific upper trough moves inland over CA. As surface low pressure and a cold front move offshore the Atlantic coast during the first half of the period, strong surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture will result in dry/stable conditions across much of the CONUS. Some rain/thunderstorm chances may develop across CA late in the period as the aforementioned upper trough moves inland, though severe thunderstorms are not expected. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the central Plains will slowly shift east toward the Mid-MS Valley on Tuesday. The associated upper trough will envelop much of the CONUS east of the Rockies while an upper ridge builds over the western states. At the surface, a weak surface low will drift from the Mid-MO to the Mid-MS Valley and a cold front will move across much of the Midwest and Southeast. The front will develop fairly far south into the Gulf of Mexico, and modest boundary-layer moisture will mainly be confined to FL/GA and the Carolinas ahead of the eastward-advancing front. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast, but overall poor instability and modest vertical shear will preclude severe potential. In the wake of the Midwest surface low and the synoptic cold front, dry and stable conditions will prevail. ..Leitman.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the central Plains will slowly shift east toward the Mid-MS Valley on Tuesday. The associated upper trough will envelop much of the CONUS east of the Rockies while an upper ridge builds over the western states. At the surface, a weak surface low will drift from the Mid-MO to the Mid-MS Valley and a cold front will move across much of the Midwest and Southeast. The front will develop fairly far south into the Gulf of Mexico, and modest boundary-layer moisture will mainly be confined to FL/GA and the Carolinas ahead of the eastward-advancing front. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast, but overall poor instability and modest vertical shear will preclude severe potential. In the wake of the Midwest surface low and the synoptic cold front, dry and stable conditions will prevail. ..Leitman.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the central Plains will slowly shift east toward the Mid-MS Valley on Tuesday. The associated upper trough will envelop much of the CONUS east of the Rockies while an upper ridge builds over the western states. At the surface, a weak surface low will drift from the Mid-MO to the Mid-MS Valley and a cold front will move across much of the Midwest and Southeast. The front will develop fairly far south into the Gulf of Mexico, and modest boundary-layer moisture will mainly be confined to FL/GA and the Carolinas ahead of the eastward-advancing front. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast, but overall poor instability and modest vertical shear will preclude severe potential. In the wake of the Midwest surface low and the synoptic cold front, dry and stable conditions will prevail. ..Leitman.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the central Plains will slowly shift east toward the Mid-MS Valley on Tuesday. The associated upper trough will envelop much of the CONUS east of the Rockies while an upper ridge builds over the western states. At the surface, a weak surface low will drift from the Mid-MO to the Mid-MS Valley and a cold front will move across much of the Midwest and Southeast. The front will develop fairly far south into the Gulf of Mexico, and modest boundary-layer moisture will mainly be confined to FL/GA and the Carolinas ahead of the eastward-advancing front. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast, but overall poor instability and modest vertical shear will preclude severe potential. In the wake of the Midwest surface low and the synoptic cold front, dry and stable conditions will prevail. ..Leitman.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the central Plains will slowly shift east toward the Mid-MS Valley on Tuesday. The associated upper trough will envelop much of the CONUS east of the Rockies while an upper ridge builds over the western states. At the surface, a weak surface low will drift from the Mid-MO to the Mid-MS Valley and a cold front will move across much of the Midwest and Southeast. The front will develop fairly far south into the Gulf of Mexico, and modest boundary-layer moisture will mainly be confined to FL/GA and the Carolinas ahead of the eastward-advancing front. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast, but overall poor instability and modest vertical shear will preclude severe potential. In the wake of the Midwest surface low and the synoptic cold front, dry and stable conditions will prevail. ..Leitman.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a surface low will occlude in the central/northern Plains and shift into the Upper Midwest. This will bring some breezy conditions from the Great Lakes to the Midwest and northern Plains. However, much of this area will either be moist with recent wetting rainfall or too cold to support significant fire spread. Elsewhere, fire-weather concerns will also remain minimal with a strong Arctic high in the Intermountain West and mostly wet fuels across the CONUS. ..Bentley.. 12/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a surface low will occlude in the central/northern Plains and shift into the Upper Midwest. This will bring some breezy conditions from the Great Lakes to the Midwest and northern Plains. However, much of this area will either be moist with recent wetting rainfall or too cold to support significant fire spread. Elsewhere, fire-weather concerns will also remain minimal with a strong Arctic high in the Intermountain West and mostly wet fuels across the CONUS. ..Bentley.. 12/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a surface low will occlude in the central/northern Plains and shift into the Upper Midwest. This will bring some breezy conditions from the Great Lakes to the Midwest and northern Plains. However, much of this area will either be moist with recent wetting rainfall or too cold to support significant fire spread. Elsewhere, fire-weather concerns will also remain minimal with a strong Arctic high in the Intermountain West and mostly wet fuels across the CONUS. ..Bentley.. 12/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a surface low will occlude in the central/northern Plains and shift into the Upper Midwest. This will bring some breezy conditions from the Great Lakes to the Midwest and northern Plains. However, much of this area will either be moist with recent wetting rainfall or too cold to support significant fire spread. Elsewhere, fire-weather concerns will also remain minimal with a strong Arctic high in the Intermountain West and mostly wet fuels across the CONUS. ..Bentley.. 12/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a surface low will occlude in the central/northern Plains and shift into the Upper Midwest. This will bring some breezy conditions from the Great Lakes to the Midwest and northern Plains. However, much of this area will either be moist with recent wetting rainfall or too cold to support significant fire spread. Elsewhere, fire-weather concerns will also remain minimal with a strong Arctic high in the Intermountain West and mostly wet fuels across the CONUS. ..Bentley.. 12/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will amplify today and eventually develop into a closed low across the central Plains by Monday morning. During this period, a surface low will slowly strengthen as it shifts east along a front in the central/southern Plains. A strengthening pressure gradient will result in breezy conditions across much of the central CONUS. However, wetting rain has occurred or will occur during the day today across most of the region where the strongest winds are expected. Therefore, fire-weather concerns will be minimal. ..Bentley.. 12/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will amplify today and eventually develop into a closed low across the central Plains by Monday morning. During this period, a surface low will slowly strengthen as it shifts east along a front in the central/southern Plains. A strengthening pressure gradient will result in breezy conditions across much of the central CONUS. However, wetting rain has occurred or will occur during the day today across most of the region where the strongest winds are expected. Therefore, fire-weather concerns will be minimal. ..Bentley.. 12/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will amplify today and eventually develop into a closed low across the central Plains by Monday morning. During this period, a surface low will slowly strengthen as it shifts east along a front in the central/southern Plains. A strengthening pressure gradient will result in breezy conditions across much of the central CONUS. However, wetting rain has occurred or will occur during the day today across most of the region where the strongest winds are expected. Therefore, fire-weather concerns will be minimal. ..Bentley.. 12/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will amplify today and eventually develop into a closed low across the central Plains by Monday morning. During this period, a surface low will slowly strengthen as it shifts east along a front in the central/southern Plains. A strengthening pressure gradient will result in breezy conditions across much of the central CONUS. However, wetting rain has occurred or will occur during the day today across most of the region where the strongest winds are expected. Therefore, fire-weather concerns will be minimal. ..Bentley.. 12/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will amplify today and eventually develop into a closed low across the central Plains by Monday morning. During this period, a surface low will slowly strengthen as it shifts east along a front in the central/southern Plains. A strengthening pressure gradient will result in breezy conditions across much of the central CONUS. However, wetting rain has occurred or will occur during the day today across most of the region where the strongest winds are expected. Therefore, fire-weather concerns will be minimal. ..Bentley.. 12/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A weakening upper shortwave impulse will lift northeast from the Southeast states to the central Appalachian vicinity through Monday evening. At the same time, a southern-stream mid/upper-level jet streak will overspread the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, low pressure will deepen as it shifts north from the Mid-MS Valley into the Upper Midwest. A trailing cold front oriented from the Ozarks and Lower MS Valley early in the day will shift east through the period, becoming oriented from near Lake Michigan to the eastern FL Panhandle by Tuesday morning. Ahead of the cold front, 60s F surface dewpoints in be in place across MS/AL and parts of GA, as well as across FL. However, widespread cloudiness and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit heating. Furthermore, poor low and midlevel lapse rates will further limit destabilization inland from the Gulf. While scattered thunderstorms are possible across the central Gulf Coast states into parts of GA and FL, severe potential will be limited by weak instability and weakening vertical shear, as the initial upper shortwave weakens and lifts northeast. ..Leitman.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A weakening upper shortwave impulse will lift northeast from the Southeast states to the central Appalachian vicinity through Monday evening. At the same time, a southern-stream mid/upper-level jet streak will overspread the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, low pressure will deepen as it shifts north from the Mid-MS Valley into the Upper Midwest. A trailing cold front oriented from the Ozarks and Lower MS Valley early in the day will shift east through the period, becoming oriented from near Lake Michigan to the eastern FL Panhandle by Tuesday morning. Ahead of the cold front, 60s F surface dewpoints in be in place across MS/AL and parts of GA, as well as across FL. However, widespread cloudiness and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit heating. Furthermore, poor low and midlevel lapse rates will further limit destabilization inland from the Gulf. While scattered thunderstorms are possible across the central Gulf Coast states into parts of GA and FL, severe potential will be limited by weak instability and weakening vertical shear, as the initial upper shortwave weakens and lifts northeast. ..Leitman.. 12/24/2023 Read more