Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS...MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak remains possible across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South this afternoon and tonight, with isolated large hail, scattered damaging/severe winds, and several tornadoes expected. The most likely time period for strong tornadoes is between 5 pm and Midnight CDT. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the Moderate Risk area. Convection is beginning to increase in coverage and intensity ahead of the cold across far east TX, in addition to the ongoing activity along the front itself. As a southerly low-level jet strengthens late this afternoon into this evening, a corresponding increase in effective SRH will likely lead to greater tornado potential with time. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes remains apparent this evening across parts of northern LA into southern/eastern AR, northern/central MS, and western/middle TN. This will especially be the case with any supercells that can remain discrete ahead of the line. A bowing line/MCS will likely develop this evening as convection grows upscale along/ahead of the front. The northern extent of appreciable severe threat will likely be constrained by a convectively reinforced outflow boundary from thunderstorms earlier today that currently extends from parts of AR into TN. This boundary will attempt to lift back northward this evening and overnight as a surface low deepens from the Mid-South into the lower OH Valley. Still, the threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should become increasingly limited with northward extent into KY and the OH Valley. The primary change with this update was to expand severe wind probabilities and corresponding categorical lines a bit eastward across AL/TN, north GA, and western NC/SC. Recent high-resolution guidance, including multiple runs of the HRRR, suggest that a well-organized bow will continue eastward across these areas late tonight into early Saturday morning. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, very strong low-level shear associated with a 55-65+ kt low-level jet should allow the line to remain organized and pose a continued threat for severe/damaging winds and a few embedded QLCS tornadoes. ..Gleason.. 03/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023/ ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley... Upper-air analysis and more contemporary water vapor imagery features a relatively low amplitude shortwave trough centered near the New Mexico/Mexico/west Texas border vicinity, with a preceding broad belt of strong mid/high-level southwesterlies extending across the southern plains toward the Midwest. These westerlies are partially atop a convectively augmented front that extends from central/northeast Texas into the Ozarks, and then largely parallels the Lower Ohio River (but to the south). Within the warm sector, 12z upper-air analysis did feature a relative minimum of higher-caliber source-region moisture as noted in 850mb analysis (supplemented by GPS PW values) across parts of south-central/east Texas into southern Louisiana, although higher moisture content was noted across the ArkLaTex/Mid-South. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the effective frontal zone from the ArkLatex into central/eastern Arkansas, and northeastward into western Tennessee and eastern Kentucky. Latest thinking is that initial development/intensification of surface-based storms should occur across northeast/east Texas, possibly far southeast Oklahoma, into western Arkansas in vicinity of the front/abating outflow and surface low vicinity. This severe threat should expand/organize east-northeastward as the surface cyclone steadily deepens and tracks northeast along the baroclinic zone through tonight. After some initial-discrete storms/supercells, it seems like that an intensifying QLCS will evolve across Arkansas and spread toward the Tennessee Valley through the evening. Strengthening low-level winds and enlarging hodographs should compensate for the northern gradient of the surface-based instability plume. This QLCS will likely contain embedded supercell and mesovortex structures supportive of tornadoes (including potential for a few EF2s) and significant damaging wind swaths (up to around 80-90 mph). Farther south, increasing low-level moisture across the Sabine Valley towards the ArkLaMiss should eventually yield a plume of moderate MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg by evening. This warm theta-e advection regime should also foster some discrete supercellular convection ahead and south/southeast of the QLCS towards late afternoon into early evening within the resultant MLCAPE gradient. Deep-layer shear profiles will support supercells, a few of which could become long-tracked across the ArkLaMiss region. Low-level hodographs, while not quite as enlarged as compared to farther north, will support a threat for strong tornadoes (EF2+) through much of the evening, until warm sector winds becomes increasingly veered from southwest to northeast overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS...MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak remains possible across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South this afternoon and tonight, with isolated large hail, scattered damaging/severe winds, and several tornadoes expected. The most likely time period for strong tornadoes is between 5 pm and Midnight CDT. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the Moderate Risk area. Convection is beginning to increase in coverage and intensity ahead of the cold across far east TX, in addition to the ongoing activity along the front itself. As a southerly low-level jet strengthens late this afternoon into this evening, a corresponding increase in effective SRH will likely lead to greater tornado potential with time. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes remains apparent this evening across parts of northern LA into southern/eastern AR, northern/central MS, and western/middle TN. This will especially be the case with any supercells that can remain discrete ahead of the line. A bowing line/MCS will likely develop this evening as convection grows upscale along/ahead of the front. The northern extent of appreciable severe threat will likely be constrained by a convectively reinforced outflow boundary from thunderstorms earlier today that currently extends from parts of AR into TN. This boundary will attempt to lift back northward this evening and overnight as a surface low deepens from the Mid-South into the lower OH Valley. Still, the threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should become increasingly limited with northward extent into KY and the OH Valley. The primary change with this update was to expand severe wind probabilities and corresponding categorical lines a bit eastward across AL/TN, north GA, and western NC/SC. Recent high-resolution guidance, including multiple runs of the HRRR, suggest that a well-organized bow will continue eastward across these areas late tonight into early Saturday morning. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, very strong low-level shear associated with a 55-65+ kt low-level jet should allow the line to remain organized and pose a continued threat for severe/damaging winds and a few embedded QLCS tornadoes. ..Gleason.. 03/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023/ ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley... Upper-air analysis and more contemporary water vapor imagery features a relatively low amplitude shortwave trough centered near the New Mexico/Mexico/west Texas border vicinity, with a preceding broad belt of strong mid/high-level southwesterlies extending across the southern plains toward the Midwest. These westerlies are partially atop a convectively augmented front that extends from central/northeast Texas into the Ozarks, and then largely parallels the Lower Ohio River (but to the south). Within the warm sector, 12z upper-air analysis did feature a relative minimum of higher-caliber source-region moisture as noted in 850mb analysis (supplemented by GPS PW values) across parts of south-central/east Texas into southern Louisiana, although higher moisture content was noted across the ArkLaTex/Mid-South. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the effective frontal zone from the ArkLatex into central/eastern Arkansas, and northeastward into western Tennessee and eastern Kentucky. Latest thinking is that initial development/intensification of surface-based storms should occur across northeast/east Texas, possibly far southeast Oklahoma, into western Arkansas in vicinity of the front/abating outflow and surface low vicinity. This severe threat should expand/organize east-northeastward as the surface cyclone steadily deepens and tracks northeast along the baroclinic zone through tonight. After some initial-discrete storms/supercells, it seems like that an intensifying QLCS will evolve across Arkansas and spread toward the Tennessee Valley through the evening. Strengthening low-level winds and enlarging hodographs should compensate for the northern gradient of the surface-based instability plume. This QLCS will likely contain embedded supercell and mesovortex structures supportive of tornadoes (including potential for a few EF2s) and significant damaging wind swaths (up to around 80-90 mph). Farther south, increasing low-level moisture across the Sabine Valley towards the ArkLaMiss should eventually yield a plume of moderate MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg by evening. This warm theta-e advection regime should also foster some discrete supercellular convection ahead and south/southeast of the QLCS towards late afternoon into early evening within the resultant MLCAPE gradient. Deep-layer shear profiles will support supercells, a few of which could become long-tracked across the ArkLaMiss region. Low-level hodographs, while not quite as enlarged as compared to farther north, will support a threat for strong tornadoes (EF2+) through much of the evening, until warm sector winds becomes increasingly veered from southwest to northeast overnight. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... Much of the previous forecast remains on track, with only minor adjustments made to reflect the latest guidance consensus and to account for recent rainfall. Additionally though, some guidance members hinted at windier conditions farther north into the OK Panhandle/SE CO/SW KS vicinity by Saturday afternoon. However, confidence in a windier scenario overall remains too low for a northward expansion of fire weather highlights this outlook. Dry conditions may also develop on a localized basis across the Carolina Piedmont and portions of the Florida Peninsula Saturday afternoon. Localized fire-spread potential may exist wherever instances of gusty winds develop during the day. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong westerly midlevel flow will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day, while a weak Pacific cold front makes little eastward progression over the southern High Plains. ...Eastern NM into the TX Panhandle/South Plains... Beneath the core of the stronger midlevel westerly flow, deep boundary-layer mixing should favor a corridor of 20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle and South Plains. Here, mostly clear skies and downslope warming/drying will yield an expansive area of 10 percent RH. Given continued drying of fine fuels on Day 1/Friday, fuels should become increasingly receptive to wildfire spread. Therefore, Critical highlights have been introduced with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... Much of the previous forecast remains on track, with only minor adjustments made to reflect the latest guidance consensus and to account for recent rainfall. Additionally though, some guidance members hinted at windier conditions farther north into the OK Panhandle/SE CO/SW KS vicinity by Saturday afternoon. However, confidence in a windier scenario overall remains too low for a northward expansion of fire weather highlights this outlook. Dry conditions may also develop on a localized basis across the Carolina Piedmont and portions of the Florida Peninsula Saturday afternoon. Localized fire-spread potential may exist wherever instances of gusty winds develop during the day. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong westerly midlevel flow will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day, while a weak Pacific cold front makes little eastward progression over the southern High Plains. ...Eastern NM into the TX Panhandle/South Plains... Beneath the core of the stronger midlevel westerly flow, deep boundary-layer mixing should favor a corridor of 20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle and South Plains. Here, mostly clear skies and downslope warming/drying will yield an expansive area of 10 percent RH. Given continued drying of fine fuels on Day 1/Friday, fuels should become increasingly receptive to wildfire spread. Therefore, Critical highlights have been introduced with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible from the Florida Panhandle northeastward into South Carolina on Saturday. Other convection capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts may occur across parts of the upper Ohio Valley and vicinity. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will continue to eject northeastward from the MS Valley across much of the eastern CONUS on Saturday. Very strong low/mid-level flow fields associated with this upper trough will overspread the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic. A deep surface low will also develop northeastward over the Great Lakes and into southern Ontario through Saturday evening. A cold front will sweep east-southeastward over much of the eastern states, with the trailing portion of this front stalling over the Southeast. ...Southeast... A line of thunderstorms should be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of upstate SC into GA and southeast AL. This line will probably decay through the morning hours, but may still pose an isolated threat for damaging winds. Although the better forcing associated with the upper trough will remain generally displaced to the north of this region, sufficient instability and shear are forecast to support some severe threat ahead of the cold front. Primary uncertainty remains overall thunderstorm coverage given the nebulous forcing. Most 12Z runs of convection-allowing guidance show some increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity Saturday afternoon, either with the leading line of convection, and/or along the synoptic cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain strong enough for supercells, with associated threat for large hail and gusty/damaging winds. A tornado or two may also occur, even though low-level flow is expected to gradually veer/weaken through the day. Given the continued uncertainty regarding how many robust thunderstorms may develop, have maintained the Marginal Risk across parts of the Southeast, with some expansion. ...Eastern Ohio into Western Pennsylvania and Northern West Virginia... Low-level moisture should remain quite limited across the upper OH Valley vicinity on Saturday. But, even modest daytime heating of the airmass ahead of the cold front may support weak surface-based instability given rapidly cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the ejecting upper trough. Low/mid-level flow will likely be quite strong across OH into PA and vicinity Saturday afternoon. There appears to be potential for isolated, low-topped convection to occur along or just ahead of the cold front around peak afternoon heating. If this activity develops, then some threat for severe/damaging winds should exist given the strength of the low-level flow forecast. ..Gleason.. 03/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible from the Florida Panhandle northeastward into South Carolina on Saturday. Other convection capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts may occur across parts of the upper Ohio Valley and vicinity. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will continue to eject northeastward from the MS Valley across much of the eastern CONUS on Saturday. Very strong low/mid-level flow fields associated with this upper trough will overspread the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic. A deep surface low will also develop northeastward over the Great Lakes and into southern Ontario through Saturday evening. A cold front will sweep east-southeastward over much of the eastern states, with the trailing portion of this front stalling over the Southeast. ...Southeast... A line of thunderstorms should be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of upstate SC into GA and southeast AL. This line will probably decay through the morning hours, but may still pose an isolated threat for damaging winds. Although the better forcing associated with the upper trough will remain generally displaced to the north of this region, sufficient instability and shear are forecast to support some severe threat ahead of the cold front. Primary uncertainty remains overall thunderstorm coverage given the nebulous forcing. Most 12Z runs of convection-allowing guidance show some increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity Saturday afternoon, either with the leading line of convection, and/or along the synoptic cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain strong enough for supercells, with associated threat for large hail and gusty/damaging winds. A tornado or two may also occur, even though low-level flow is expected to gradually veer/weaken through the day. Given the continued uncertainty regarding how many robust thunderstorms may develop, have maintained the Marginal Risk across parts of the Southeast, with some expansion. ...Eastern Ohio into Western Pennsylvania and Northern West Virginia... Low-level moisture should remain quite limited across the upper OH Valley vicinity on Saturday. But, even modest daytime heating of the airmass ahead of the cold front may support weak surface-based instability given rapidly cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the ejecting upper trough. Low/mid-level flow will likely be quite strong across OH into PA and vicinity Saturday afternoon. There appears to be potential for isolated, low-topped convection to occur along or just ahead of the cold front around peak afternoon heating. If this activity develops, then some threat for severe/damaging winds should exist given the strength of the low-level flow forecast. ..Gleason.. 03/24/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS... Clear skies are evident across far eastern New Mexico into western Texas this morning, as a mid-level trough and associated surface low drifts away from the southern High Plains region. In the wake of the surface low, downslope flow and boundary-layer heating/mixing within the post-dryline environment are still expected to support dry and windy conditions. By afternoon peak heating, 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds should overlap with 15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Though fuel receptiveness is relatively modest, somewhat dry grasses should support some threat for fire spread amid the aforementioned surface meteorological conditions, warranting the continuation of Elevated/Critical highlights. These highlights were adjusted to account for the latest guidance consensus, and for recent rainfall across the Concho Valley. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level trough accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow will advance eastward across the southern Plains through the day, while a Pacific cold front tracks eastward across east TX. ...West Texas... Behind the eastward-advancing cold front, mostly clear skies coupled with strong downslope warming/drying will favor deep boundary-layer mixing/drying across much of west TX -- yielding an expansive area of 10-15 percent minimum RH. At the same time, strong westerly flow through the depth of the boundary-layer will favor 20-30 mph sustained surface winds with gusts upwards of 35-40 mph. While this combination will support a large area of critical meteorological conditions over west into central TX, the Critical area has been confined to areas that missed out on recent precipitation (where fuels should be modestly receptive to large-fire spread). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS... Clear skies are evident across far eastern New Mexico into western Texas this morning, as a mid-level trough and associated surface low drifts away from the southern High Plains region. In the wake of the surface low, downslope flow and boundary-layer heating/mixing within the post-dryline environment are still expected to support dry and windy conditions. By afternoon peak heating, 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds should overlap with 15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Though fuel receptiveness is relatively modest, somewhat dry grasses should support some threat for fire spread amid the aforementioned surface meteorological conditions, warranting the continuation of Elevated/Critical highlights. These highlights were adjusted to account for the latest guidance consensus, and for recent rainfall across the Concho Valley. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level trough accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow will advance eastward across the southern Plains through the day, while a Pacific cold front tracks eastward across east TX. ...West Texas... Behind the eastward-advancing cold front, mostly clear skies coupled with strong downslope warming/drying will favor deep boundary-layer mixing/drying across much of west TX -- yielding an expansive area of 10-15 percent minimum RH. At the same time, strong westerly flow through the depth of the boundary-layer will favor 20-30 mph sustained surface winds with gusts upwards of 35-40 mph. While this combination will support a large area of critical meteorological conditions over west into central TX, the Critical area has been confined to areas that missed out on recent precipitation (where fuels should be modestly receptive to large-fire spread). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is possible across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South this afternoon and tonight. The most likely time period for strong tornadoes is between 5 pm and Midnight CDT. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley... Upper-air analysis and more contemporary water vapor imagery features a relatively low amplitude shortwave trough centered near the New Mexico/Mexico/west Texas border vicinity, with a preceding broad belt of strong mid/high-level southwesterlies extending across the southern plains toward the Midwest. These westerlies are partially atop a convectively augmented front that extends from central/northeast Texas into the Ozarks, and then largely parallels the Lower Ohio River (but to the south). Within the warm sector, 12z upper-air analysis did feature a relative minimum of higher-caliber source-region moisture as noted in 850mb analysis (supplemented by GPS PW values) across parts of south-central/east Texas into southern Louisiana, although higher moisture content was noted across the ArkLaTex/Mid-South. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the effective frontal zone from the ArkLatex into central/eastern Arkansas, and northeastward into western Tennessee and eastern Kentucky. Latest thinking is that initial development/intensification of surface-based storms should occur across northeast/east Texas, possibly far southeast Oklahoma, into western Arkansas in vicinity of the front/abating outflow and surface low vicinity. This severe threat should expand/organize east-northeastward as the surface cyclone steadily deepens and tracks northeast along the baroclinic zone through tonight. After some initial-discrete storms/supercells, it seems like that an intensifying QLCS will evolve across Arkansas and spread toward the Tennessee Valley through the evening. Strengthening low-level winds and enlarging hodographs should compensate for the northern gradient of the surface-based instability plume. This QLCS will likely contain embedded supercell and mesovortex structures supportive of tornadoes (including potential for a few EF2s) and significant damaging wind swaths (up to around 80-90 mph). Farther south, increasing low-level moisture across the Sabine Valley towards the ArkLaMiss should eventually yield a plume of moderate MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg by evening. This warm theta-e advection regime should also foster some discrete supercellular convection ahead and south/southeast of the QLCS towards late afternoon into early evening within the resultant MLCAPE gradient. Deep-layer shear profiles will support supercells, a few of which could become long-tracked across the ArkLaMiss region. Low-level hodographs, while not quite as enlarged as compared to farther north, will support a threat for strong tornadoes (EF2+) through much of the evening, until warm sector winds becomes increasingly veered from southwest to northeast overnight. ..Guyer/Moore.. 03/24/2023 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Mar 23 21:16:03 UTC 2023.

WW 0072 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0072 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 72 SEVERE TSTM AR MO 232045Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 72 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Arkansas Southern Missouri * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop across the region and intensify through late afternoon and early evening, with these storms focused along and to the north of a southeastward-moving cold front. Large hail should be the most common severe hazard (aside from locally heavy rainfall), but locally damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado could also occur with any storms near/south of the cold front. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles north northwest of Fayetteville AR to 40 miles southeast of Fort Leonard Wood MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 71... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0071 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 71 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SMITH..03/23/23 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...SJT...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 71 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC001-015-017-019-021-027-029-031-033-035-037-041-049-051-061- 063-065-067-069-075-077-079-081-085-087-091-095-097-099-101-107- 109-111-115-121-123-125-131-133-135-137-141-143-145-232200- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CHEROKEE CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE GARVIN GRADY HASKELL HUGHES JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KIOWA LATIMER LE FLORE LINCOLN LOVE MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MARSHALL MAYES MURRAY MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OTTAWA PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH STEPHENS TILLMAN TULSA WAGONER TXC009-023-077-155-197-207-269-275-433-447-485-487-232200- Read more

WW 71 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 232010Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 71 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 310 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Oklahoma Western North Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to develop near/just north of a southeastward-moving cold front. Large hail will be the most common hazard. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles southwest of Altus OK to 45 miles east northeast of Muskogee OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail will be possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of Texas and Oklahoma. Isolated severe wind gusts or a tornado are possible as well. Little change was needed to the previous outlook. Storms will continue to form in a band near the front from northwest TX across OK and into southern MO through evening. The strongest instability and thus hail threat will exist over northwest TX and southern OK as storms develop, mature, and race northeastward nearly parallel to the surface front. Several rounds of storms are possible as the low-level jet increases this evening. Long hodographs as well as enhanced low-level storm relative flow may aid hail production in some of these storms, especially near and after 00Z. For more information, see mesoscale discussion 310. ..Jewell.. 03/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023/ ...Southern Plains to Ozarks/Lower Ohio Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave trough near the Arizona/Mexico border vicinity and preceding jet streak will transition northeastward toward the southern High Plains by tonight. A southwest/northeast-oriented cold front will continue to advance southeastward across Oklahoma and southern portions of Missouri/Illinois. Beneath a mid-level cap (reference 12z observed soundings), low-level moistening continues to steadily occur within the warm sector with upper 60s/near 70F surface dewpoints increasingly prevalent across central/east Texas toward the ArkLaTex. Warm-sector cloud cover remains semi-prevalent at late morning, but visible satellite imagery does reflect a gradual scattering of stratus across central/east Texas. Given warm-sector capping and forcing for ascent initially focused near and on the cool side of the boundary, scattered to eventually numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop by around mid-afternoon initially across Oklahoma near the front. Any development that can mature along/ahead of the front through late afternoon/early evening, without getting undercut by it, may pose a more consequential large hail risk, along with the potential for damaging wind gusts and possibly some tornado risk. Such wind/tornado potential may be modestly higher across far eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas/far southwest Missouri if a weak surface wave materializes along the front. Overall, forecast soundings suggest favorable deep-layer shear for supercells, with intense mid-level winds contributing to effective-shear magnitudes in the 55-70 kt range. With 60s F dewpoints pervasive in the moist sector, peak/preconvective MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg should be common from the Ozarks southwestward, diminishing below 1000 J/kg toward southern Indiana and locally reaching 2000 J/kg in parts of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Farther southwest, a more isolated/conditional deep convective potential will exist over northwest Texas near the front/dryline intersection. Any persistent thunderstorms will develop in a greater instability/shear parameter space will have the potential to become supercells and offer significant/2+ inch diameter hailstones. As the front(s) overtake the dryline later this evening and overnight, the combined lift may overcome EML-related CINH enough to backbuild the convection into parts of west-central and perhaps southwest Texas. At least isolated thunderstorms (which also may become supercellular and offer substantial hail) are possible as far south as the Rio Grande. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TX... The previous forecast remains on track for critical fire-weather conditions in portions of West TX. Latest guidance suggests a broader area of windy conditions amidst critical relative humidities, warranting an expansion of the Critical area northward into the Rolling Plains. The southward extent of the Elevated area has been trimmed slightly, particularly in the Big Bend. Despite quite dry and windy conditions in this region, relatively high fuel moisture will limit the fire-weather threat. Current satellite/radar trends suggest that convective precipitation this afternoon should develop roughly along a meridian extending from the eastern Rolling Plains southward through the TX Hill Country. Given increased confidence in the absence of rainfall in the Rolling Plains, the Elevated area has been expanded northeastward to account for dry, windy conditions in an area with fuels supportive of fire spread. ..Flournoy/Wendt.. 03/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will pass over the southern Plains through D2/Friday. 80-100 kt mid-level flow behind the trough will support gusty downslope surface winds behind a dryline/pacific front as it moves to the east. Widespread fire-weather concerns are expected, given the strong winds and low humidity across portions of West TX. ...Western and central TX... In the wake of the pacific front/dryline passing through early D2/Friday morning, dry westerly winds are expected over much of the southern Plains into central TX. Model soundings show surface humidity will fall below 20% with winds of 20-30 mph expected over much of west TX. Widespread elevated meteorological conditions appear likely, despite only modestly receptive fuels. A focused corridor of critical conditions may also develop with enhanced surface winds and locally drier fuels across portions of west TX and the far southern TX Panhandle. Here, gusts may exceeded 35 mph with pockets of humidity below 15% through the afternoon. The primary uncertainty this outlook is the state of fuels across the region in the wake of precipitation the preceding day. Already slightly wetter than seasonal averages, fuels may be further tempered by widespread precipitation. Models show an area of 0.25+ inch QPF across portions of central and West TX from thunderstorms on D1/Thursday. Uncertainty on the western bound of the higher precipitation is high, lending little confidence in the fire-weather risk across the eastern portions of the outlook area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely from the Lower Mississippi Valley toward the lower Ohio Valley Friday afternoon and evening. Tornadoes, some strong, as well as damaging winds and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough with positive tilt will move across the Southern Plains on Friday, and into the middle MS/lower OH Valley by Saturday morning. The primary zone of cooling aloft will remain roughly along and north of a Texarkana to Memphis to Evansville line, but height falls will occur even south of the jet core toward the northern Gulf Coast. This wave will impinge upon a prominent upper high over the Southeast, with a leading anticyclonically curved jet lifting north across the OH River and toward the Upper Great Lakes. The combination of differential divergence and low-level warm advection looks to be maximized from the Ozarks into the lower OH Valley from 21 to 06Z. Coincidentally, the surface low will deepen most after 00Z as it moves from northern AR northeastward up the OH Valley overnight. The low will move along an existing synoptic front, with a northward-jumping warm front possible just ahead of the low track from far southeast MO/southern IL into southern IN after 00Z. A cold front will develop behind the low, with low-level convergence maximized from northeast TX into western AR by 00Z, pushing east across northern MS and western TN/KY after 06Z. More subtle convergence is anticipated over southern portions of the warm sector across the Sabine River and into LA. The warm sector will be characterized by mid 60s F dewpoints from the low track southward, with upper 60s to 70 F likely into northern LA and central MS. Strong deep-layer shear will overspread the region, with increasing low-level shear developing late in the day/evening from the lower MS valley to the OH Valley as 850 winds increase into the 50-70 kt range. ...Western and northern AR into the OH Valley... Early day storms will be ongoing from eastern OK across northern AR and toward the OH River along and north of a surface front in a zone of glancing warm advection with a veered low-level jet. Some of this activity could contain hail from OK into AR given elevated MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg and long hodographs. In the wake of the earlier activity, diurnal storms are expected to form near the surface low and front extending south across western AR by mid afternoon, with additional activity extending northeastward along the developing warm front into southeast MO and to the OH River. Supercells may mature over AR, producing tornadoes especially later in the day toward 00Z as the low-level jet strengthens rapidly. This threat will expand quickly northeastward across the OH Valley, with a corridor of tornado or damaging winds anticipated near the surface low track. Given the very strong shear Friday evening, minimal uncapped surface-based instability will be needed to produce significant severe storms. As additional model guidance arrives and better observations exist into the Day 1 period, it is plausible that parts of the Moderate Risk could be extended/shifted northward a bit across AR given the more favorable large-scale lift over northern areas. ...Lower MS Valley... The air mass will destabilize across this area well into the evening, which will remain open warm sector with the cold front stalling to the west. Severe weather is most likely late in the day and evening as low-level moisture remains favorable, gradual cooling aloft occurs, and the low-level shear increases substantially. The fact that convergence will be subtle may be beneficial to the supercell tornado threat, and deepening bands of convection may eventually produce tornadoes from northern LA into central MS. Even if storms in this area remain isolated, impressive hodographs with 0-1 SRH over 300 m2/s2 will favor supercells and tornadoes, perhaps tracking for long distances given the lack of cold/stable air. Therefore despite perhaps a weaker model signal over these southern areas, the Moderate Risk has been maintained. ..Jewell.. 03/23/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous discussion remains on track with minimal fire-weather concerns today. Confidence remains low regarding the overlap of dry and windy conditions -- anticipated in the Permian Basin southward toward the Big Bend -- with more supportive fuels farther north in the TX Panhandle. High-cloud cover currently overspreads West TX and is expected to persist throughout the day. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions may materialize, but the overall threat does not warrant an Elevated area. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Flournoy/Wendt.. 03/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... A significant shortwave trough is forecast to cross the Rockies into the Plains accompanied by strong mid-level flow this afternoon and evening. At the surface, a stalled cold front over the southern Plains will keep temperatures relatively cool as it slowly moves south across portions of the southern Plains. Strengthening mid-level flow may support a few hours of drier, downsloping winds from southeast CO, into eastern NM, and portions of west TX, but the overlap of sustained fire-weather conditions and receptive fuels appears low. ...Portions of West TX and the southern Plains... As the lee cyclone moves eastward into Day2/Thursday, a trailing dryline will pass through portions of southwest TX and the southern High Plains. In its wake, area RAP soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers with afternoon RH values in the teens to low 20s percent. Coincident with winds of 15-20 mph, a few hours of local elevated meteorological conditions appear possible from the TX Big Bend, northwestward into far southeastern NM. However, uncertainty on fuels in this area is high. Area ERC values near or slightly below seasonal averages suggest any fire-weather threat will likely remain local in nature. Thus, confidence is too low to introduce an Elevated area, despite modestly supportive meteorological conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large and potentially destructive hail will be possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of Texas and Oklahoma. Isolated severe wind gusts or a tornado are possible as well. ...Southern Plains to Ozarks/Lower Ohio Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave trough near the Arizona/Mexico border vicinity and preceding jet streak will transition northeastward toward the southern High Plains by tonight. A southwest/northeast-oriented cold front will continue to advance southeastward across Oklahoma and southern portions of Missouri/Illinois. Beneath a mid-level cap (reference 12z observed soundings), low-level moistening continues to steadily occur within the warm sector with upper 60s/near 70F surface dewpoints increasingly prevalent across central/east Texas toward the ArkLaTex. Warm-sector cloud cover remains semi-prevalent at late morning, but visible satellite imagery does reflect a gradual scattering of stratus across central/east Texas. Given warm-sector capping and forcing for ascent initially focused near and on the cool side of the boundary, scattered to eventually numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop by around mid-afternoon initially across Oklahoma near the front. Any development that can mature along/ahead of the front through late afternoon/early evening, without getting undercut by it, may pose a more consequential large hail risk, along with the potential for damaging wind gusts and possibly some tornado risk. Such wind/tornado potential may be modestly higher across far eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas/far southwest Missouri if a weak surface wave materializes along the front. Overall, forecast soundings suggest favorable deep-layer shear for supercells, with intense mid-level winds contributing to effective-shear magnitudes in the 55-70 kt range. With 60s F dewpoints pervasive in the moist sector, peak/preconvective MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg should be common from the Ozarks southwestward, diminishing below 1000 J/kg toward southern Indiana and locally reaching 2000 J/kg in parts of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Farther southwest, a more isolated/conditional deep convective potential will exist over northwest Texas near the front/dryline intersection. Any persistent thunderstorms will develop in a greater instability/shear parameter space will have the potential to become supercells and offer significant/2+ inch diameter hailstones. As the front(s) overtake the dryline later this evening and overnight, the combined lift may overcome EML-related CINH enough to backbuild the convection into parts of west-central and perhaps southwest Texas. At least isolated thunderstorms (which also may become supercellular and offer substantial hail) are possible as far south as the Rio Grande. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 03/23/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Mar 22 21:25:02 UTC 2023.