Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will intensify over the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains as a surface lee cyclone deepens over TX/OK. To the southwest of the low, very strong surface winds and low humidity are expected over parts of the TX Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... As the surface low intensifies through Thursday, low-level westerly winds will quickly increase across parts of southern NM and southwest TX. Dry and windy conditions, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%, are expected to support a few hours of meteorological critical conditions in the Trans-Pecos. While so far fuel dryness has remained limited, several days of preceding dry/windy conditions suggest fine fuels may be dry enough to support some fire spread. With the expected overlap of gusty winds, low humidity and some drying of fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will intensify over the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains as a surface lee cyclone deepens over TX/OK. To the southwest of the low, very strong surface winds and low humidity are expected over parts of the TX Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... As the surface low intensifies through Thursday, low-level westerly winds will quickly increase across parts of southern NM and southwest TX. Dry and windy conditions, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%, are expected to support a few hours of meteorological critical conditions in the Trans-Pecos. While so far fuel dryness has remained limited, several days of preceding dry/windy conditions suggest fine fuels may be dry enough to support some fire spread. With the expected overlap of gusty winds, low humidity and some drying of fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, mostly zonal flow aloft will remain in place over much of the southern and central CONUS today ahead of a deepening Pacific trough. The strong flow aloft will support the development a weak lee low, late in the period, over parts of southern CO. Winds should gradually increase through the afternoon and into the evening, especially over parts of southern NM and west TX. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas, where low humidity and gusty surface winds are possible. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, mostly zonal flow aloft will remain in place over much of the southern and central CONUS today ahead of a deepening Pacific trough. The strong flow aloft will support the development a weak lee low, late in the period, over parts of southern CO. Winds should gradually increase through the afternoon and into the evening, especially over parts of southern NM and west TX. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas, where low humidity and gusty surface winds are possible. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, mostly zonal flow aloft will remain in place over much of the southern and central CONUS today ahead of a deepening Pacific trough. The strong flow aloft will support the development a weak lee low, late in the period, over parts of southern CO. Winds should gradually increase through the afternoon and into the evening, especially over parts of southern NM and west TX. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas, where low humidity and gusty surface winds are possible. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, mostly zonal flow aloft will remain in place over much of the southern and central CONUS today ahead of a deepening Pacific trough. The strong flow aloft will support the development a weak lee low, late in the period, over parts of southern CO. Winds should gradually increase through the afternoon and into the evening, especially over parts of southern NM and west TX. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas, where low humidity and gusty surface winds are possible. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, mostly zonal flow aloft will remain in place over much of the southern and central CONUS today ahead of a deepening Pacific trough. The strong flow aloft will support the development a weak lee low, late in the period, over parts of southern CO. Winds should gradually increase through the afternoon and into the evening, especially over parts of southern NM and west TX. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas, where low humidity and gusty surface winds are possible. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley, where storms may increasingly pose a risk for severe hail, wind and tornadoes prior to daybreak Friday. ...Synopsis... To the east of persistent amplified mid/upper ridging within the split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, one notable short wave impulse of northern Canadian Arctic origins is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Rockies and Prairies during this period. Models generally indicate that it will at least begin to progress across the international border into the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies by late Thursday night, but there is sizable spread still evident concerning this evolution. This in turn appears to impact the model depiction of a significant downstream short wave impulse (of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins), particularly by late Thursday night, after digging southeast of the Great Basin toward the Southwestern international border area. Guidance, still generally indicates that it will begin pivoting to a negative tilt and accelerate through the southern Great Plains, but latest model runs, including the NAM and the Rapid Refresh, suggest that the impulse may bottom out and take a more northward track than what the GEFS and ECENS output have been indicating that past several days. Regardless, strong mid/upper forcing for ascent is forecast to contribute to a deepening surface troughing across the southern Great Plains through the Ozark Plateau and lower Mississippi Valley by late Thursday night, with at least one developing area of low pressure across the Ark-La-Texas into central Arkansas vicinity probable. It appears that this will be accompanied by a substantive inland influx of moisture, off a still modifying boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, contributing to increasing near-surface or surface-based destabilization, aided by steepening lapse rates associated with cooling aloft. ...Southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley... Based on the 03Z Rapid Refresh and 00Z NAM forecast soundings, and accounting for the increasing model spread, severe probabilities are being maintained at slight risk categorization, but have been extended north-northwestward through portions of the southeastern Great Plains and toward the Ozark Plateau, where initial thunderstorm development appears possible by late Thursday evening. Otherwise, it still appears that mid/upper forcing for ascent may support thunderstorm initiation as far south and west as the Interstate 35 and Edwards Plateau vicinity of Texas. Coincident with strengthening deep-layer mean wind fields and shear (including in excess of 50 kt around 850 mb) across the lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Friday, rapidly intensifying thunderstorms posing increasing severe weather potential are possible by late Thursday night, if not earlier. In association with the mid-level cooling, an organizing squall line may evolve across parts of western Arkansas and eastern Texas into Louisiana, with an additional area of downstream warm advection driven supercell development possible closer to the Mississippi River, by the end of the period. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley, where storms may increasingly pose a risk for severe hail, wind and tornadoes prior to daybreak Friday. ...Synopsis... To the east of persistent amplified mid/upper ridging within the split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, one notable short wave impulse of northern Canadian Arctic origins is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Rockies and Prairies during this period. Models generally indicate that it will at least begin to progress across the international border into the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies by late Thursday night, but there is sizable spread still evident concerning this evolution. This in turn appears to impact the model depiction of a significant downstream short wave impulse (of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins), particularly by late Thursday night, after digging southeast of the Great Basin toward the Southwestern international border area. Guidance, still generally indicates that it will begin pivoting to a negative tilt and accelerate through the southern Great Plains, but latest model runs, including the NAM and the Rapid Refresh, suggest that the impulse may bottom out and take a more northward track than what the GEFS and ECENS output have been indicating that past several days. Regardless, strong mid/upper forcing for ascent is forecast to contribute to a deepening surface troughing across the southern Great Plains through the Ozark Plateau and lower Mississippi Valley by late Thursday night, with at least one developing area of low pressure across the Ark-La-Texas into central Arkansas vicinity probable. It appears that this will be accompanied by a substantive inland influx of moisture, off a still modifying boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, contributing to increasing near-surface or surface-based destabilization, aided by steepening lapse rates associated with cooling aloft. ...Southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley... Based on the 03Z Rapid Refresh and 00Z NAM forecast soundings, and accounting for the increasing model spread, severe probabilities are being maintained at slight risk categorization, but have been extended north-northwestward through portions of the southeastern Great Plains and toward the Ozark Plateau, where initial thunderstorm development appears possible by late Thursday evening. Otherwise, it still appears that mid/upper forcing for ascent may support thunderstorm initiation as far south and west as the Interstate 35 and Edwards Plateau vicinity of Texas. Coincident with strengthening deep-layer mean wind fields and shear (including in excess of 50 kt around 850 mb) across the lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Friday, rapidly intensifying thunderstorms posing increasing severe weather potential are possible by late Thursday night, if not earlier. In association with the mid-level cooling, an organizing squall line may evolve across parts of western Arkansas and eastern Texas into Louisiana, with an additional area of downstream warm advection driven supercell development possible closer to the Mississippi River, by the end of the period. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley, where storms may increasingly pose a risk for severe hail, wind and tornadoes prior to daybreak Friday. ...Synopsis... To the east of persistent amplified mid/upper ridging within the split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, one notable short wave impulse of northern Canadian Arctic origins is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Rockies and Prairies during this period. Models generally indicate that it will at least begin to progress across the international border into the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies by late Thursday night, but there is sizable spread still evident concerning this evolution. This in turn appears to impact the model depiction of a significant downstream short wave impulse (of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins), particularly by late Thursday night, after digging southeast of the Great Basin toward the Southwestern international border area. Guidance, still generally indicates that it will begin pivoting to a negative tilt and accelerate through the southern Great Plains, but latest model runs, including the NAM and the Rapid Refresh, suggest that the impulse may bottom out and take a more northward track than what the GEFS and ECENS output have been indicating that past several days. Regardless, strong mid/upper forcing for ascent is forecast to contribute to a deepening surface troughing across the southern Great Plains through the Ozark Plateau and lower Mississippi Valley by late Thursday night, with at least one developing area of low pressure across the Ark-La-Texas into central Arkansas vicinity probable. It appears that this will be accompanied by a substantive inland influx of moisture, off a still modifying boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, contributing to increasing near-surface or surface-based destabilization, aided by steepening lapse rates associated with cooling aloft. ...Southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley... Based on the 03Z Rapid Refresh and 00Z NAM forecast soundings, and accounting for the increasing model spread, severe probabilities are being maintained at slight risk categorization, but have been extended north-northwestward through portions of the southeastern Great Plains and toward the Ozark Plateau, where initial thunderstorm development appears possible by late Thursday evening. Otherwise, it still appears that mid/upper forcing for ascent may support thunderstorm initiation as far south and west as the Interstate 35 and Edwards Plateau vicinity of Texas. Coincident with strengthening deep-layer mean wind fields and shear (including in excess of 50 kt around 850 mb) across the lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Friday, rapidly intensifying thunderstorms posing increasing severe weather potential are possible by late Thursday night, if not earlier. In association with the mid-level cooling, an organizing squall line may evolve across parts of western Arkansas and eastern Texas into Louisiana, with an additional area of downstream warm advection driven supercell development possible closer to the Mississippi River, by the end of the period. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley, where storms may increasingly pose a risk for severe hail, wind and tornadoes prior to daybreak Friday. ...Synopsis... To the east of persistent amplified mid/upper ridging within the split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, one notable short wave impulse of northern Canadian Arctic origins is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Rockies and Prairies during this period. Models generally indicate that it will at least begin to progress across the international border into the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies by late Thursday night, but there is sizable spread still evident concerning this evolution. This in turn appears to impact the model depiction of a significant downstream short wave impulse (of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins), particularly by late Thursday night, after digging southeast of the Great Basin toward the Southwestern international border area. Guidance, still generally indicates that it will begin pivoting to a negative tilt and accelerate through the southern Great Plains, but latest model runs, including the NAM and the Rapid Refresh, suggest that the impulse may bottom out and take a more northward track than what the GEFS and ECENS output have been indicating that past several days. Regardless, strong mid/upper forcing for ascent is forecast to contribute to a deepening surface troughing across the southern Great Plains through the Ozark Plateau and lower Mississippi Valley by late Thursday night, with at least one developing area of low pressure across the Ark-La-Texas into central Arkansas vicinity probable. It appears that this will be accompanied by a substantive inland influx of moisture, off a still modifying boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, contributing to increasing near-surface or surface-based destabilization, aided by steepening lapse rates associated with cooling aloft. ...Southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley... Based on the 03Z Rapid Refresh and 00Z NAM forecast soundings, and accounting for the increasing model spread, severe probabilities are being maintained at slight risk categorization, but have been extended north-northwestward through portions of the southeastern Great Plains and toward the Ozark Plateau, where initial thunderstorm development appears possible by late Thursday evening. Otherwise, it still appears that mid/upper forcing for ascent may support thunderstorm initiation as far south and west as the Interstate 35 and Edwards Plateau vicinity of Texas. Coincident with strengthening deep-layer mean wind fields and shear (including in excess of 50 kt around 850 mb) across the lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Friday, rapidly intensifying thunderstorms posing increasing severe weather potential are possible by late Thursday night, if not earlier. In association with the mid-level cooling, an organizing squall line may evolve across parts of western Arkansas and eastern Texas into Louisiana, with an additional area of downstream warm advection driven supercell development possible closer to the Mississippi River, by the end of the period. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley, where storms may increasingly pose a risk for severe hail, wind and tornadoes prior to daybreak Friday. ...Synopsis... To the east of persistent amplified mid/upper ridging within the split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, one notable short wave impulse of northern Canadian Arctic origins is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Rockies and Prairies during this period. Models generally indicate that it will at least begin to progress across the international border into the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies by late Thursday night, but there is sizable spread still evident concerning this evolution. This in turn appears to impact the model depiction of a significant downstream short wave impulse (of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins), particularly by late Thursday night, after digging southeast of the Great Basin toward the Southwestern international border area. Guidance, still generally indicates that it will begin pivoting to a negative tilt and accelerate through the southern Great Plains, but latest model runs, including the NAM and the Rapid Refresh, suggest that the impulse may bottom out and take a more northward track than what the GEFS and ECENS output have been indicating that past several days. Regardless, strong mid/upper forcing for ascent is forecast to contribute to a deepening surface troughing across the southern Great Plains through the Ozark Plateau and lower Mississippi Valley by late Thursday night, with at least one developing area of low pressure across the Ark-La-Texas into central Arkansas vicinity probable. It appears that this will be accompanied by a substantive inland influx of moisture, off a still modifying boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, contributing to increasing near-surface or surface-based destabilization, aided by steepening lapse rates associated with cooling aloft. ...Southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley... Based on the 03Z Rapid Refresh and 00Z NAM forecast soundings, and accounting for the increasing model spread, severe probabilities are being maintained at slight risk categorization, but have been extended north-northwestward through portions of the southeastern Great Plains and toward the Ozark Plateau, where initial thunderstorm development appears possible by late Thursday evening. Otherwise, it still appears that mid/upper forcing for ascent may support thunderstorm initiation as far south and west as the Interstate 35 and Edwards Plateau vicinity of Texas. Coincident with strengthening deep-layer mean wind fields and shear (including in excess of 50 kt around 850 mb) across the lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Friday, rapidly intensifying thunderstorms posing increasing severe weather potential are possible by late Thursday night, if not earlier. In association with the mid-level cooling, an organizing squall line may evolve across parts of western Arkansas and eastern Texas into Louisiana, with an additional area of downstream warm advection driven supercell development possible closer to the Mississippi River, by the end of the period. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will envelop the CONUS today. At the surface, a deep cyclone will lift northeast across New England and Quebec. Some convection may be ongoing during the morning hours from near Cape Cod northward into Maine. However, meager instability and poor midlevel lapse rates will likely preclude lightning. Otherwise, generally dry and/or stable conditions in the wake of a cold frontal passage earlier in the week will preclude thunderstorm activity across much of the rest of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Further west, a series of shortwave impulses migrating through the western periphery of the CONUS upper trough will foster areas of precipitation from the Pacific Northwest toward the Great Basin. Cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and at least areas of weak instability. Isolated lightning flashes will accompany convection along the WA/OR coasts, as well as over parts of the Sierra Mountains into NV/UT. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will envelop the CONUS today. At the surface, a deep cyclone will lift northeast across New England and Quebec. Some convection may be ongoing during the morning hours from near Cape Cod northward into Maine. However, meager instability and poor midlevel lapse rates will likely preclude lightning. Otherwise, generally dry and/or stable conditions in the wake of a cold frontal passage earlier in the week will preclude thunderstorm activity across much of the rest of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Further west, a series of shortwave impulses migrating through the western periphery of the CONUS upper trough will foster areas of precipitation from the Pacific Northwest toward the Great Basin. Cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and at least areas of weak instability. Isolated lightning flashes will accompany convection along the WA/OR coasts, as well as over parts of the Sierra Mountains into NV/UT. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will envelop the CONUS today. At the surface, a deep cyclone will lift northeast across New England and Quebec. Some convection may be ongoing during the morning hours from near Cape Cod northward into Maine. However, meager instability and poor midlevel lapse rates will likely preclude lightning. Otherwise, generally dry and/or stable conditions in the wake of a cold frontal passage earlier in the week will preclude thunderstorm activity across much of the rest of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Further west, a series of shortwave impulses migrating through the western periphery of the CONUS upper trough will foster areas of precipitation from the Pacific Northwest toward the Great Basin. Cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and at least areas of weak instability. Isolated lightning flashes will accompany convection along the WA/OR coasts, as well as over parts of the Sierra Mountains into NV/UT. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will envelop the CONUS today. At the surface, a deep cyclone will lift northeast across New England and Quebec. Some convection may be ongoing during the morning hours from near Cape Cod northward into Maine. However, meager instability and poor midlevel lapse rates will likely preclude lightning. Otherwise, generally dry and/or stable conditions in the wake of a cold frontal passage earlier in the week will preclude thunderstorm activity across much of the rest of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Further west, a series of shortwave impulses migrating through the western periphery of the CONUS upper trough will foster areas of precipitation from the Pacific Northwest toward the Great Basin. Cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and at least areas of weak instability. Isolated lightning flashes will accompany convection along the WA/OR coasts, as well as over parts of the Sierra Mountains into NV/UT. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/10/2024 Read more

MD 0040 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR WESTERN NEW YORK...AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0040 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Areas affected...Western New York...and portions of New England Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 100025Z - 100430Z SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall with rates 1-2+"/hr through the evening. DISCUSSION...A surface low continues to lift northeastward across southern Michigan. Deep moisture and strong ascent have overspread portions of the northeast into New England where heavy snow has been reported. HREF ensemble guidance indicates high probability that heavy snow will continue across this region through the evening, with potential for 1-2+"/hr rates at times. Strong warm air advection from the southeast is ongoing at this hour, with a transition zone where warmer temperatures are located to the southeast of the heavier snowfall. Mixed precipitation will likely continue in this region with lower elevations changing back over to rain through the evening. Heavy snow will spread north and east through New England the evening and overnight. ..Thornton.. 01/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM... LAT...LON 42137198 41737256 41617329 41607397 41897451 42107491 42367515 42697522 43427475 44137449 44897332 44847258 44637188 44187113 43787093 43557103 42387179 42137198 Read more

WW 0008 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW APF TO 40 WNW PBI TO 30 NE VRB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0042 ..LYONS..01/10/24 ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC021-051-085-099-100340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIER HENDRY MARTIN PALM BEACH AMZ555-650-100340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0042 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 8... FOR PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0042 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Areas affected...parts of South Florida Concerning...Tornado Watch 8... Valid 100211Z - 100345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 8 continues. SUMMARY...Squall line moving slowly into southern Florida will remain capable of isolated damaging winds or a brief tornado for a couple more hours tonight. DISCUSSION...As of 0205 UTC, a well-developed squall line was observed stretching from Fort Pierce to just south of Naples FL. A slow weakening trend has been observed with the line as large-scale ascent has faded this evening. However, the line still remains fairly well organized with strong low and deep-layer shear also present. The environment remains broadly favorable for a few instances of damaging winds and a brief tornado with the stronger sections of the line this evening. Recent CAM trends suggest this will continue into the first part of tonight before storms move offshore and nocturnal stabilization sets in. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB... LAT...LON 26048181 26618128 27398068 27618054 27608050 27518032 27038017 26708012 26458011 26208017 26048037 25868079 25808112 25798133 26048181 Read more

WW 0008 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW APF TO 40 WNW PBI TO 30 NE VRB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0042 ..LYONS..01/10/24 ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC021-051-085-099-100340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIER HENDRY MARTIN PALM BEACH AMZ555-650-100340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more