Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few areas across the western U.S. this evening will have potential for isolated lightning strikes, but this activity will not be associated with a severe threat. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will dig southeastward into the Intermountain West this evening. Ahead of this feature, strong large-scale ascent and mid-level moisture will result in a potential for isolated lightning strikes associated with developing snow bands. The greatest potential will be from parts of the Sierra Nevada eastward into central Nevada and western Utah. A few lightning strikes will also be possible in parts of western Oregon. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States through daybreak on Thursday. ..Broyles.. 01/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few areas across the western U.S. this evening will have potential for isolated lightning strikes, but this activity will not be associated with a severe threat. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will dig southeastward into the Intermountain West this evening. Ahead of this feature, strong large-scale ascent and mid-level moisture will result in a potential for isolated lightning strikes associated with developing snow bands. The greatest potential will be from parts of the Sierra Nevada eastward into central Nevada and western Utah. A few lightning strikes will also be possible in parts of western Oregon. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States through daybreak on Thursday. ..Broyles.. 01/11/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 10 23:37:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 10 23:37:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A potent shortwave tough will lift through the Eastern Seaboard by the start of the weekend. Broadly cyclonic flow will develop across much of the CONUS during the weekend and is expected to persist through the middle of next week. In the West, ridging aloft will develop and eventually shift eastward. A strong cold front is expected to push into the Gulf by early next week. In general, fire weather concerns will be minimal for most areas on account of cold temperatures and/or precipitation. ...Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas... Behind the cold front, northwesterly flow at the surface will occur across the Rio Grand Valley and South Texas on Friday. Here, preceding days of dry/breezy conditions have allowed fine fuels to sufficiently dry. Winds will be strongest during the morning and early afternoon before weakening. A few hours of overlap of the stronger winds with reduced RH values will promote elevated to perhaps locally critical fire weather conditions. Dry and windy conditions are possible Saturday/Sunday within the Trans-Pecos. Current guidance suggests that winds may only be marginal. Further uncertainty exists with how fast the cold front will push into the region, ending the fire weather threat. For those reasons, highlights will be withheld. ..Wendt.. 01/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A potent shortwave tough will lift through the Eastern Seaboard by the start of the weekend. Broadly cyclonic flow will develop across much of the CONUS during the weekend and is expected to persist through the middle of next week. In the West, ridging aloft will develop and eventually shift eastward. A strong cold front is expected to push into the Gulf by early next week. In general, fire weather concerns will be minimal for most areas on account of cold temperatures and/or precipitation. ...Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas... Behind the cold front, northwesterly flow at the surface will occur across the Rio Grand Valley and South Texas on Friday. Here, preceding days of dry/breezy conditions have allowed fine fuels to sufficiently dry. Winds will be strongest during the morning and early afternoon before weakening. A few hours of overlap of the stronger winds with reduced RH values will promote elevated to perhaps locally critical fire weather conditions. Dry and windy conditions are possible Saturday/Sunday within the Trans-Pecos. Current guidance suggests that winds may only be marginal. Further uncertainty exists with how fast the cold front will push into the region, ending the fire weather threat. For those reasons, highlights will be withheld. ..Wendt.. 01/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A potent shortwave tough will lift through the Eastern Seaboard by the start of the weekend. Broadly cyclonic flow will develop across much of the CONUS during the weekend and is expected to persist through the middle of next week. In the West, ridging aloft will develop and eventually shift eastward. A strong cold front is expected to push into the Gulf by early next week. In general, fire weather concerns will be minimal for most areas on account of cold temperatures and/or precipitation. ...Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas... Behind the cold front, northwesterly flow at the surface will occur across the Rio Grand Valley and South Texas on Friday. Here, preceding days of dry/breezy conditions have allowed fine fuels to sufficiently dry. Winds will be strongest during the morning and early afternoon before weakening. A few hours of overlap of the stronger winds with reduced RH values will promote elevated to perhaps locally critical fire weather conditions. Dry and windy conditions are possible Saturday/Sunday within the Trans-Pecos. Current guidance suggests that winds may only be marginal. Further uncertainty exists with how fast the cold front will push into the region, ending the fire weather threat. For those reasons, highlights will be withheld. ..Wendt.. 01/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A potent shortwave tough will lift through the Eastern Seaboard by the start of the weekend. Broadly cyclonic flow will develop across much of the CONUS during the weekend and is expected to persist through the middle of next week. In the West, ridging aloft will develop and eventually shift eastward. A strong cold front is expected to push into the Gulf by early next week. In general, fire weather concerns will be minimal for most areas on account of cold temperatures and/or precipitation. ...Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas... Behind the cold front, northwesterly flow at the surface will occur across the Rio Grand Valley and South Texas on Friday. Here, preceding days of dry/breezy conditions have allowed fine fuels to sufficiently dry. Winds will be strongest during the morning and early afternoon before weakening. A few hours of overlap of the stronger winds with reduced RH values will promote elevated to perhaps locally critical fire weather conditions. Dry and windy conditions are possible Saturday/Sunday within the Trans-Pecos. Current guidance suggests that winds may only be marginal. Further uncertainty exists with how fast the cold front will push into the region, ending the fire weather threat. For those reasons, highlights will be withheld. ..Wendt.. 01/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Previous forecast reasoning remains valid with no changes needed. ..Mosier.. 01/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024/ Relatively cold and stable conditions are in place across the CONUS today, with the risk of thunderstorms rather low in most areas. There will be some continued risk of lightning flashes along the coast and coastal ranges of WA/OR through this evening as a strong upper trough and associated jet max move inland today. Strong onshore flow, orographic lift, and very cold temperatures aloft could also result in hail and gusty winds in the strongest cores, but no severe storms are expected. Other isolated lightning flashes are possible this afternoon and evening from the Sierras of central CA eastward across parts of NV/UT. This activity will mostly be in the form of snow showers as the aforementioned upper system approaches. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Previous forecast reasoning remains valid with no changes needed. ..Mosier.. 01/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024/ Relatively cold and stable conditions are in place across the CONUS today, with the risk of thunderstorms rather low in most areas. There will be some continued risk of lightning flashes along the coast and coastal ranges of WA/OR through this evening as a strong upper trough and associated jet max move inland today. Strong onshore flow, orographic lift, and very cold temperatures aloft could also result in hail and gusty winds in the strongest cores, but no severe storms are expected. Other isolated lightning flashes are possible this afternoon and evening from the Sierras of central CA eastward across parts of NV/UT. This activity will mostly be in the form of snow showers as the aforementioned upper system approaches. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Previous forecast reasoning remains valid with no changes needed. ..Mosier.. 01/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024/ Relatively cold and stable conditions are in place across the CONUS today, with the risk of thunderstorms rather low in most areas. There will be some continued risk of lightning flashes along the coast and coastal ranges of WA/OR through this evening as a strong upper trough and associated jet max move inland today. Strong onshore flow, orographic lift, and very cold temperatures aloft could also result in hail and gusty winds in the strongest cores, but no severe storms are expected. Other isolated lightning flashes are possible this afternoon and evening from the Sierras of central CA eastward across parts of NV/UT. This activity will mostly be in the form of snow showers as the aforementioned upper system approaches. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Previous forecast reasoning remains valid with no changes needed. ..Mosier.. 01/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024/ Relatively cold and stable conditions are in place across the CONUS today, with the risk of thunderstorms rather low in most areas. There will be some continued risk of lightning flashes along the coast and coastal ranges of WA/OR through this evening as a strong upper trough and associated jet max move inland today. Strong onshore flow, orographic lift, and very cold temperatures aloft could also result in hail and gusty winds in the strongest cores, but no severe storms are expected. Other isolated lightning flashes are possible this afternoon and evening from the Sierras of central CA eastward across parts of NV/UT. This activity will mostly be in the form of snow showers as the aforementioned upper system approaches. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Previous forecast reasoning remains valid with no changes needed. ..Mosier.. 01/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024/ Relatively cold and stable conditions are in place across the CONUS today, with the risk of thunderstorms rather low in most areas. There will be some continued risk of lightning flashes along the coast and coastal ranges of WA/OR through this evening as a strong upper trough and associated jet max move inland today. Strong onshore flow, orographic lift, and very cold temperatures aloft could also result in hail and gusty winds in the strongest cores, but no severe storms are expected. Other isolated lightning flashes are possible this afternoon and evening from the Sierras of central CA eastward across parts of NV/UT. This activity will mostly be in the form of snow showers as the aforementioned upper system approaches. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Previous forecast reasoning remains valid with no changes needed. ..Mosier.. 01/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024/ Relatively cold and stable conditions are in place across the CONUS today, with the risk of thunderstorms rather low in most areas. There will be some continued risk of lightning flashes along the coast and coastal ranges of WA/OR through this evening as a strong upper trough and associated jet max move inland today. Strong onshore flow, orographic lift, and very cold temperatures aloft could also result in hail and gusty winds in the strongest cores, but no severe storms are expected. Other isolated lightning flashes are possible this afternoon and evening from the Sierras of central CA eastward across parts of NV/UT. This activity will mostly be in the form of snow showers as the aforementioned upper system approaches. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will intensify over the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains as a surface lee cyclone deepens over TX/OK. To the southwest of the low, very strong surface winds and low humidity are expected over parts of the TX Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... As the surface low intensifies through Thursday, low-level westerly winds will quickly increase across parts of southern NM and southwest TX. Dry and windy conditions, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%, are expected to support a few hours of meteorological critical conditions in the Trans-Pecos. While so far fuel dryness has remained limited, several days of preceding dry/windy conditions suggest fine fuels may be dry enough to support some fire spread. With the expected overlap of gusty winds, low humidity and some drying of fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will intensify over the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains as a surface lee cyclone deepens over TX/OK. To the southwest of the low, very strong surface winds and low humidity are expected over parts of the TX Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... As the surface low intensifies through Thursday, low-level westerly winds will quickly increase across parts of southern NM and southwest TX. Dry and windy conditions, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%, are expected to support a few hours of meteorological critical conditions in the Trans-Pecos. While so far fuel dryness has remained limited, several days of preceding dry/windy conditions suggest fine fuels may be dry enough to support some fire spread. With the expected overlap of gusty winds, low humidity and some drying of fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will intensify over the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains as a surface lee cyclone deepens over TX/OK. To the southwest of the low, very strong surface winds and low humidity are expected over parts of the TX Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... As the surface low intensifies through Thursday, low-level westerly winds will quickly increase across parts of southern NM and southwest TX. Dry and windy conditions, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%, are expected to support a few hours of meteorological critical conditions in the Trans-Pecos. While so far fuel dryness has remained limited, several days of preceding dry/windy conditions suggest fine fuels may be dry enough to support some fire spread. With the expected overlap of gusty winds, low humidity and some drying of fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will intensify over the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains as a surface lee cyclone deepens over TX/OK. To the southwest of the low, very strong surface winds and low humidity are expected over parts of the TX Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... As the surface low intensifies through Thursday, low-level westerly winds will quickly increase across parts of southern NM and southwest TX. Dry and windy conditions, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%, are expected to support a few hours of meteorological critical conditions in the Trans-Pecos. While so far fuel dryness has remained limited, several days of preceding dry/windy conditions suggest fine fuels may be dry enough to support some fire spread. With the expected overlap of gusty winds, low humidity and some drying of fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will intensify over the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains as a surface lee cyclone deepens over TX/OK. To the southwest of the low, very strong surface winds and low humidity are expected over parts of the TX Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... As the surface low intensifies through Thursday, low-level westerly winds will quickly increase across parts of southern NM and southwest TX. Dry and windy conditions, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%, are expected to support a few hours of meteorological critical conditions in the Trans-Pecos. While so far fuel dryness has remained limited, several days of preceding dry/windy conditions suggest fine fuels may be dry enough to support some fire spread. With the expected overlap of gusty winds, low humidity and some drying of fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will intensify over the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains as a surface lee cyclone deepens over TX/OK. To the southwest of the low, very strong surface winds and low humidity are expected over parts of the TX Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... As the surface low intensifies through Thursday, low-level westerly winds will quickly increase across parts of southern NM and southwest TX. Dry and windy conditions, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%, are expected to support a few hours of meteorological critical conditions in the Trans-Pecos. While so far fuel dryness has remained limited, several days of preceding dry/windy conditions suggest fine fuels may be dry enough to support some fire spread. With the expected overlap of gusty winds, low humidity and some drying of fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more