Severe Storms

MD 0045 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO EXTREME NORTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0045 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Areas affected...portions of central and southeastern Nebraska into extreme northern Kansas Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 112140Z - 120345Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow should increase into the evening hours, with 1-2 inch/hr rates possible. Heavy snow will be most likely in central Nebraska over the next couple of hours, becoming increasingly likely in southeast Nebraska in the 00-03Z period. DISCUSSION...A pronounced mid-level trough is ejecting into the Plains states, with a 120+ kt 300 mb jet streak overspreading the southern Plains. This places the central Plains in the left-exit region of the upper-jet (per 21Z mesoanalysis), resulting in plenty of divergence aloft. The low-level mass response has been for the surface low to intensify across the southern Plains. This supports an increase in surface-925 mb cold air advection beneath increasing intense 850-700 mb warm-air advection over central and eastern NE, where 700 mb frontogenesis is also now underway. Moderate snow has recently begun to fall in central Nebraska per surface observations, with snowfall rates expected to only increase with time as dynamic lift increases and the dendritic growth zone continues to saturate. Later this afternoon, the anticipated heavier snow bands may produce snowfall rates up to 1-2 inches/hour, where reduced visibility will also become a concern. Latest high-resolution model guidance consensus suggests that the heaviest snow should begin in the next couple of hours, and peak in intensity somewhere in the 00-03Z period, especially over southeastern NE. ..Squitieri.. 01/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 42230081 42039872 41419693 40749594 40189559 39849594 39749687 39739796 40089884 40609979 41350089 42230081 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z The upper-level pattern during the extended period will generally feature broadly cyclonic flow across much of the CONUS east of the Intermountain West. Near and along the West Coast, an upper-level ridge is expected to persist through the period. Guidance suggests that this feature may eventually move eastward perhaps during the middle/latter portions of next week; however, uncertainty is rather high. This pattern will favor cold temperatures at the surface for a broad area through the middle of next week. Coupled with precipitation, these cold conditions should mitigate fire weather concerns for most areas through the period. Potential for elevated fire weather will exist in parts of the Trans-Pecos this Saturday/Sunday as weak surface trough develops ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough. There is some uncertainty on the strength of the surface winds given the modest trough. Further uncertainty exists with the spatial extent of the threat given the potential for the cold front push into the region from the east. ..Wendt.. 01/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z The upper-level pattern during the extended period will generally feature broadly cyclonic flow across much of the CONUS east of the Intermountain West. Near and along the West Coast, an upper-level ridge is expected to persist through the period. Guidance suggests that this feature may eventually move eastward perhaps during the middle/latter portions of next week; however, uncertainty is rather high. This pattern will favor cold temperatures at the surface for a broad area through the middle of next week. Coupled with precipitation, these cold conditions should mitigate fire weather concerns for most areas through the period. Potential for elevated fire weather will exist in parts of the Trans-Pecos this Saturday/Sunday as weak surface trough develops ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough. There is some uncertainty on the strength of the surface winds given the modest trough. Further uncertainty exists with the spatial extent of the threat given the potential for the cold front push into the region from the east. ..Wendt.. 01/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z The upper-level pattern during the extended period will generally feature broadly cyclonic flow across much of the CONUS east of the Intermountain West. Near and along the West Coast, an upper-level ridge is expected to persist through the period. Guidance suggests that this feature may eventually move eastward perhaps during the middle/latter portions of next week; however, uncertainty is rather high. This pattern will favor cold temperatures at the surface for a broad area through the middle of next week. Coupled with precipitation, these cold conditions should mitigate fire weather concerns for most areas through the period. Potential for elevated fire weather will exist in parts of the Trans-Pecos this Saturday/Sunday as weak surface trough develops ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough. There is some uncertainty on the strength of the surface winds given the modest trough. Further uncertainty exists with the spatial extent of the threat given the potential for the cold front push into the region from the east. ..Wendt.. 01/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z The upper-level pattern during the extended period will generally feature broadly cyclonic flow across much of the CONUS east of the Intermountain West. Near and along the West Coast, an upper-level ridge is expected to persist through the period. Guidance suggests that this feature may eventually move eastward perhaps during the middle/latter portions of next week; however, uncertainty is rather high. This pattern will favor cold temperatures at the surface for a broad area through the middle of next week. Coupled with precipitation, these cold conditions should mitigate fire weather concerns for most areas through the period. Potential for elevated fire weather will exist in parts of the Trans-Pecos this Saturday/Sunday as weak surface trough develops ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough. There is some uncertainty on the strength of the surface winds given the modest trough. Further uncertainty exists with the spatial extent of the threat given the potential for the cold front push into the region from the east. ..Wendt.. 01/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z The upper-level pattern during the extended period will generally feature broadly cyclonic flow across much of the CONUS east of the Intermountain West. Near and along the West Coast, an upper-level ridge is expected to persist through the period. Guidance suggests that this feature may eventually move eastward perhaps during the middle/latter portions of next week; however, uncertainty is rather high. This pattern will favor cold temperatures at the surface for a broad area through the middle of next week. Coupled with precipitation, these cold conditions should mitigate fire weather concerns for most areas through the period. Potential for elevated fire weather will exist in parts of the Trans-Pecos this Saturday/Sunday as weak surface trough develops ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough. There is some uncertainty on the strength of the surface winds given the modest trough. Further uncertainty exists with the spatial extent of the threat given the potential for the cold front push into the region from the east. ..Wendt.. 01/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0043 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO FAR WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 0043 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Areas affected...portions of east-central Arizona into far west-central New Mexico Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 111629Z - 112130Z SUMMARY...Periods of heavy snow are possible into the afternoon hours. Localized instances of 1-2 inch/hr snowfall rates may occur with the heaviest snow bands, which may also be accompanied by strong wind gusts and reduced visibility. The best chance for higher snowfall rates and stronger winds gusts will be in higher terrain areas. DISCUSSION...A surface cold front is progressing southeast across portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin this morning, providing some low-level convergence that is supporting an ongoing band of snow over central AZ. Deep-layer ascent is expected to increase further as a 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak overspreads the region, supporting convective snow bands (given sub-freezing surface temperatures, steep tropospheric lapse rates, and a near-saturated 700-500 mb layer per 15Z RAP forecast soundings and 16Z mesoanalysis). As such, 1-2 inch/hr snowfall rates may accompany the stronger snow bands later this morning into the afternoon hours. The best chance for heavier snow and strong wind gusts with reduced visibility will be in the higher terrain areas. Latest HREF guidance suggests that heavier snow and stronger winds are most likely in the 17-22Z period along the AZ/NM border. ..Squitieri.. 01/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 33890810 33460791 33240832 33160868 33210927 33390994 33721076 34431155 34841165 35081140 34560999 34120860 33890810 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX REGION... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are possible tonight over the Arklatex region, and nearby parts of southeastern Oklahoma, east Texas, Arkansas, and western/northern Louisiana. ...20Z Update... ...East TX and Arklatex into the Ozark Plateau tonight... Low-level moisture continues to advect northward across East TX, with low 60s dewpoints now reaching as far north as Rusk County TX. That matches fairly well with the last RAP guidance, which then brings 60s dewpoints into the TXK vicinity around 03Z. Elevated thunderstorm development is still anticipated tonight (00Z-03Z) from the Arklatex into nearby central AR within the strong warm-air advection preceding the shortwave current moving through the Four Corners region. Strong deep-layer vertical shear should support rotating updrafts and some potential for large hail. As mentioned in the previous outlook, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints might be sufficient for surface-based supercells capable of all hazards, including tornadoes. Additional development is still expected to the west of this earlier, predominantly elevated activity as the strong mid-level jet progresses over the warm sector and a cold front surges westward. Storms are then expected to form along/ahead of this cold front from eastern OK int northeast TX and track rapidly east-northeastward across the ENH area. Primary storm mode will likely be bowing line segments, with an attendant threat for strong to significant gusts and tornadoes, particularly across east-central/southeast AR early Friday morning. Some storm development is also possible close to the primary surface low as well, and severe-wind probabilities were extended northward to account for this potential. ..Mosier.. 01/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024/ Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive upper trough digging southeastward toward the Four Corners region. This trough and associated intense mid/upper level jet will move into the southern Plains tonight, aiding in rapid cyclogenesis over OK/TX. Strengthening southerly low-level winds in the warm sector will transport Gulf moisture northward and result in a corridor of severe thunderstorm activity late tonight. Present indications are that storms will first form in the warm advection regime across parts of AR after dark. These initial storms will be in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for large hail. Supercell structures will be favored, and dewpoints in the upper 50s might be sufficient for at least a modest risk of a tornado or two. The more robust severe threat is likely to evolve after midnight as the mid-level jet max surges eastward across east TX and atop the warm sector. Storms are expected to form along/ahead of the cold front over northeast TX and track rapidly east-northeastward across the ENH area. The overall synoptic setup for this event would be very impressive and favorable for severe thunderstorms, but low-level moisture is somewhat lacking. Nevertheless, fast-moving supercells and bowing structures are possible early Friday morning as storms trek across parts of AR and northern LA. Widespread damaging winds and strong tornadoes are possible - especially if low-level moisture is just slightly greater than currently forecast. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX REGION... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are possible tonight over the Arklatex region, and nearby parts of southeastern Oklahoma, east Texas, Arkansas, and western/northern Louisiana. ...20Z Update... ...East TX and Arklatex into the Ozark Plateau tonight... Low-level moisture continues to advect northward across East TX, with low 60s dewpoints now reaching as far north as Rusk County TX. That matches fairly well with the last RAP guidance, which then brings 60s dewpoints into the TXK vicinity around 03Z. Elevated thunderstorm development is still anticipated tonight (00Z-03Z) from the Arklatex into nearby central AR within the strong warm-air advection preceding the shortwave current moving through the Four Corners region. Strong deep-layer vertical shear should support rotating updrafts and some potential for large hail. As mentioned in the previous outlook, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints might be sufficient for surface-based supercells capable of all hazards, including tornadoes. Additional development is still expected to the west of this earlier, predominantly elevated activity as the strong mid-level jet progresses over the warm sector and a cold front surges westward. Storms are then expected to form along/ahead of this cold front from eastern OK int northeast TX and track rapidly east-northeastward across the ENH area. Primary storm mode will likely be bowing line segments, with an attendant threat for strong to significant gusts and tornadoes, particularly across east-central/southeast AR early Friday morning. Some storm development is also possible close to the primary surface low as well, and severe-wind probabilities were extended northward to account for this potential. ..Mosier.. 01/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024/ Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive upper trough digging southeastward toward the Four Corners region. This trough and associated intense mid/upper level jet will move into the southern Plains tonight, aiding in rapid cyclogenesis over OK/TX. Strengthening southerly low-level winds in the warm sector will transport Gulf moisture northward and result in a corridor of severe thunderstorm activity late tonight. Present indications are that storms will first form in the warm advection regime across parts of AR after dark. These initial storms will be in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for large hail. Supercell structures will be favored, and dewpoints in the upper 50s might be sufficient for at least a modest risk of a tornado or two. The more robust severe threat is likely to evolve after midnight as the mid-level jet max surges eastward across east TX and atop the warm sector. Storms are expected to form along/ahead of the cold front over northeast TX and track rapidly east-northeastward across the ENH area. The overall synoptic setup for this event would be very impressive and favorable for severe thunderstorms, but low-level moisture is somewhat lacking. Nevertheless, fast-moving supercells and bowing structures are possible early Friday morning as storms trek across parts of AR and northern LA. Widespread damaging winds and strong tornadoes are possible - especially if low-level moisture is just slightly greater than currently forecast. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX REGION... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are possible tonight over the Arklatex region, and nearby parts of southeastern Oklahoma, east Texas, Arkansas, and western/northern Louisiana. ...20Z Update... ...East TX and Arklatex into the Ozark Plateau tonight... Low-level moisture continues to advect northward across East TX, with low 60s dewpoints now reaching as far north as Rusk County TX. That matches fairly well with the last RAP guidance, which then brings 60s dewpoints into the TXK vicinity around 03Z. Elevated thunderstorm development is still anticipated tonight (00Z-03Z) from the Arklatex into nearby central AR within the strong warm-air advection preceding the shortwave current moving through the Four Corners region. Strong deep-layer vertical shear should support rotating updrafts and some potential for large hail. As mentioned in the previous outlook, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints might be sufficient for surface-based supercells capable of all hazards, including tornadoes. Additional development is still expected to the west of this earlier, predominantly elevated activity as the strong mid-level jet progresses over the warm sector and a cold front surges westward. Storms are then expected to form along/ahead of this cold front from eastern OK int northeast TX and track rapidly east-northeastward across the ENH area. Primary storm mode will likely be bowing line segments, with an attendant threat for strong to significant gusts and tornadoes, particularly across east-central/southeast AR early Friday morning. Some storm development is also possible close to the primary surface low as well, and severe-wind probabilities were extended northward to account for this potential. ..Mosier.. 01/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024/ Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive upper trough digging southeastward toward the Four Corners region. This trough and associated intense mid/upper level jet will move into the southern Plains tonight, aiding in rapid cyclogenesis over OK/TX. Strengthening southerly low-level winds in the warm sector will transport Gulf moisture northward and result in a corridor of severe thunderstorm activity late tonight. Present indications are that storms will first form in the warm advection regime across parts of AR after dark. These initial storms will be in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for large hail. Supercell structures will be favored, and dewpoints in the upper 50s might be sufficient for at least a modest risk of a tornado or two. The more robust severe threat is likely to evolve after midnight as the mid-level jet max surges eastward across east TX and atop the warm sector. Storms are expected to form along/ahead of the cold front over northeast TX and track rapidly east-northeastward across the ENH area. The overall synoptic setup for this event would be very impressive and favorable for severe thunderstorms, but low-level moisture is somewhat lacking. Nevertheless, fast-moving supercells and bowing structures are possible early Friday morning as storms trek across parts of AR and northern LA. Widespread damaging winds and strong tornadoes are possible - especially if low-level moisture is just slightly greater than currently forecast. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX REGION... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are possible tonight over the Arklatex region, and nearby parts of southeastern Oklahoma, east Texas, Arkansas, and western/northern Louisiana. ...20Z Update... ...East TX and Arklatex into the Ozark Plateau tonight... Low-level moisture continues to advect northward across East TX, with low 60s dewpoints now reaching as far north as Rusk County TX. That matches fairly well with the last RAP guidance, which then brings 60s dewpoints into the TXK vicinity around 03Z. Elevated thunderstorm development is still anticipated tonight (00Z-03Z) from the Arklatex into nearby central AR within the strong warm-air advection preceding the shortwave current moving through the Four Corners region. Strong deep-layer vertical shear should support rotating updrafts and some potential for large hail. As mentioned in the previous outlook, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints might be sufficient for surface-based supercells capable of all hazards, including tornadoes. Additional development is still expected to the west of this earlier, predominantly elevated activity as the strong mid-level jet progresses over the warm sector and a cold front surges westward. Storms are then expected to form along/ahead of this cold front from eastern OK int northeast TX and track rapidly east-northeastward across the ENH area. Primary storm mode will likely be bowing line segments, with an attendant threat for strong to significant gusts and tornadoes, particularly across east-central/southeast AR early Friday morning. Some storm development is also possible close to the primary surface low as well, and severe-wind probabilities were extended northward to account for this potential. ..Mosier.. 01/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024/ Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive upper trough digging southeastward toward the Four Corners region. This trough and associated intense mid/upper level jet will move into the southern Plains tonight, aiding in rapid cyclogenesis over OK/TX. Strengthening southerly low-level winds in the warm sector will transport Gulf moisture northward and result in a corridor of severe thunderstorm activity late tonight. Present indications are that storms will first form in the warm advection regime across parts of AR after dark. These initial storms will be in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for large hail. Supercell structures will be favored, and dewpoints in the upper 50s might be sufficient for at least a modest risk of a tornado or two. The more robust severe threat is likely to evolve after midnight as the mid-level jet max surges eastward across east TX and atop the warm sector. Storms are expected to form along/ahead of the cold front over northeast TX and track rapidly east-northeastward across the ENH area. The overall synoptic setup for this event would be very impressive and favorable for severe thunderstorms, but low-level moisture is somewhat lacking. Nevertheless, fast-moving supercells and bowing structures are possible early Friday morning as storms trek across parts of AR and northern LA. Widespread damaging winds and strong tornadoes are possible - especially if low-level moisture is just slightly greater than currently forecast. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX REGION... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are possible tonight over the Arklatex region, and nearby parts of southeastern Oklahoma, east Texas, Arkansas, and western/northern Louisiana. ...20Z Update... ...East TX and Arklatex into the Ozark Plateau tonight... Low-level moisture continues to advect northward across East TX, with low 60s dewpoints now reaching as far north as Rusk County TX. That matches fairly well with the last RAP guidance, which then brings 60s dewpoints into the TXK vicinity around 03Z. Elevated thunderstorm development is still anticipated tonight (00Z-03Z) from the Arklatex into nearby central AR within the strong warm-air advection preceding the shortwave current moving through the Four Corners region. Strong deep-layer vertical shear should support rotating updrafts and some potential for large hail. As mentioned in the previous outlook, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints might be sufficient for surface-based supercells capable of all hazards, including tornadoes. Additional development is still expected to the west of this earlier, predominantly elevated activity as the strong mid-level jet progresses over the warm sector and a cold front surges westward. Storms are then expected to form along/ahead of this cold front from eastern OK int northeast TX and track rapidly east-northeastward across the ENH area. Primary storm mode will likely be bowing line segments, with an attendant threat for strong to significant gusts and tornadoes, particularly across east-central/southeast AR early Friday morning. Some storm development is also possible close to the primary surface low as well, and severe-wind probabilities were extended northward to account for this potential. ..Mosier.. 01/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024/ Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive upper trough digging southeastward toward the Four Corners region. This trough and associated intense mid/upper level jet will move into the southern Plains tonight, aiding in rapid cyclogenesis over OK/TX. Strengthening southerly low-level winds in the warm sector will transport Gulf moisture northward and result in a corridor of severe thunderstorm activity late tonight. Present indications are that storms will first form in the warm advection regime across parts of AR after dark. These initial storms will be in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for large hail. Supercell structures will be favored, and dewpoints in the upper 50s might be sufficient for at least a modest risk of a tornado or two. The more robust severe threat is likely to evolve after midnight as the mid-level jet max surges eastward across east TX and atop the warm sector. Storms are expected to form along/ahead of the cold front over northeast TX and track rapidly east-northeastward across the ENH area. The overall synoptic setup for this event would be very impressive and favorable for severe thunderstorms, but low-level moisture is somewhat lacking. Nevertheless, fast-moving supercells and bowing structures are possible early Friday morning as storms trek across parts of AR and northern LA. Widespread damaging winds and strong tornadoes are possible - especially if low-level moisture is just slightly greater than currently forecast. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX REGION... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are possible tonight over the Arklatex region, and nearby parts of southeastern Oklahoma, east Texas, Arkansas, and western/northern Louisiana. ...20Z Update... ...East TX and Arklatex into the Ozark Plateau tonight... Low-level moisture continues to advect northward across East TX, with low 60s dewpoints now reaching as far north as Rusk County TX. That matches fairly well with the last RAP guidance, which then brings 60s dewpoints into the TXK vicinity around 03Z. Elevated thunderstorm development is still anticipated tonight (00Z-03Z) from the Arklatex into nearby central AR within the strong warm-air advection preceding the shortwave current moving through the Four Corners region. Strong deep-layer vertical shear should support rotating updrafts and some potential for large hail. As mentioned in the previous outlook, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints might be sufficient for surface-based supercells capable of all hazards, including tornadoes. Additional development is still expected to the west of this earlier, predominantly elevated activity as the strong mid-level jet progresses over the warm sector and a cold front surges westward. Storms are then expected to form along/ahead of this cold front from eastern OK int northeast TX and track rapidly east-northeastward across the ENH area. Primary storm mode will likely be bowing line segments, with an attendant threat for strong to significant gusts and tornadoes, particularly across east-central/southeast AR early Friday morning. Some storm development is also possible close to the primary surface low as well, and severe-wind probabilities were extended northward to account for this potential. ..Mosier.. 01/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024/ Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive upper trough digging southeastward toward the Four Corners region. This trough and associated intense mid/upper level jet will move into the southern Plains tonight, aiding in rapid cyclogenesis over OK/TX. Strengthening southerly low-level winds in the warm sector will transport Gulf moisture northward and result in a corridor of severe thunderstorm activity late tonight. Present indications are that storms will first form in the warm advection regime across parts of AR after dark. These initial storms will be in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for large hail. Supercell structures will be favored, and dewpoints in the upper 50s might be sufficient for at least a modest risk of a tornado or two. The more robust severe threat is likely to evolve after midnight as the mid-level jet max surges eastward across east TX and atop the warm sector. Storms are expected to form along/ahead of the cold front over northeast TX and track rapidly east-northeastward across the ENH area. The overall synoptic setup for this event would be very impressive and favorable for severe thunderstorms, but low-level moisture is somewhat lacking. Nevertheless, fast-moving supercells and bowing structures are possible early Friday morning as storms trek across parts of AR and northern LA. Widespread damaging winds and strong tornadoes are possible - especially if low-level moisture is just slightly greater than currently forecast. Read more

MD 0044 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IDAHO INTO EXTREME WESTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0044 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Areas affected...portions of northern Idaho into extreme western Montana Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 111725Z - 112030Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow should continue for at least a few more hours, with 1-2 inch/hr snowfall rates common. Reduced visibility is likely in the heavier snow bands. DISCUSSION...A low-level cyclone is drifting southeast across the Idaho Panhandle into extreme western Montana as a mid-level impulse traverses the International border, providing deep-layer ascent. Latest mesoanalysis and RAP forecast soundings characterize vertical profiles as near saturated, with deep-layer steep lapse rates, supporting a sufficiently deep and moist dendritic growth zone to support continued 1-2 inch/hr snowfall rates given strong lift in place. Latest high-resolution guidance suggests that at least brief bouts of heavy snow and perhaps reduced visibility should continue through at least 21Z. ..Squitieri.. 01/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MSO...OTX... LAT...LON 46821614 47311678 47791724 48091710 48401652 48321593 47821523 47331468 46911470 46791560 46821614 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Have broadened the Elevated risk area into more of South Texas based on the latest guidance. The prior forecast reasoning otherwise remains valid. ..Wendt.. 01/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... The surface low previously over the southern Plains is forecast to deepen rapidly and lift away into the OH Valley as the parent trough intensifies over the Midwest. In the wake of the trough/low, a cold front will move south over the southern Plains toward the Gulf coast, supporting strong northwesterly winds and dry surface conditions over parts of southwest TX. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before an Arctic front arrives with much colder temperatures. ...Southwest Texas & Rio Grande Valley... Behind the leading cold front, strong northwesterly surface flow is expected across the Rio Grande Valley and Southwest Texas on Friday. Several days of dry/breezy conditions have allowed antecedent fine fuels to dry sufficiently to support fire spread. Winds will be strongest through early afternoon before weakening into the overnight hours as the surface low lifts away to the northeast. A few hours of overlap of the stronger winds with RH values below 20% will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Have broadened the Elevated risk area into more of South Texas based on the latest guidance. The prior forecast reasoning otherwise remains valid. ..Wendt.. 01/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... The surface low previously over the southern Plains is forecast to deepen rapidly and lift away into the OH Valley as the parent trough intensifies over the Midwest. In the wake of the trough/low, a cold front will move south over the southern Plains toward the Gulf coast, supporting strong northwesterly winds and dry surface conditions over parts of southwest TX. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before an Arctic front arrives with much colder temperatures. ...Southwest Texas & Rio Grande Valley... Behind the leading cold front, strong northwesterly surface flow is expected across the Rio Grande Valley and Southwest Texas on Friday. Several days of dry/breezy conditions have allowed antecedent fine fuels to dry sufficiently to support fire spread. Winds will be strongest through early afternoon before weakening into the overnight hours as the surface low lifts away to the northeast. A few hours of overlap of the stronger winds with RH values below 20% will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Have broadened the Elevated risk area into more of South Texas based on the latest guidance. The prior forecast reasoning otherwise remains valid. ..Wendt.. 01/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... The surface low previously over the southern Plains is forecast to deepen rapidly and lift away into the OH Valley as the parent trough intensifies over the Midwest. In the wake of the trough/low, a cold front will move south over the southern Plains toward the Gulf coast, supporting strong northwesterly winds and dry surface conditions over parts of southwest TX. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before an Arctic front arrives with much colder temperatures. ...Southwest Texas & Rio Grande Valley... Behind the leading cold front, strong northwesterly surface flow is expected across the Rio Grande Valley and Southwest Texas on Friday. Several days of dry/breezy conditions have allowed antecedent fine fuels to dry sufficiently to support fire spread. Winds will be strongest through early afternoon before weakening into the overnight hours as the surface low lifts away to the northeast. A few hours of overlap of the stronger winds with RH values below 20% will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Have broadened the Elevated risk area into more of South Texas based on the latest guidance. The prior forecast reasoning otherwise remains valid. ..Wendt.. 01/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... The surface low previously over the southern Plains is forecast to deepen rapidly and lift away into the OH Valley as the parent trough intensifies over the Midwest. In the wake of the trough/low, a cold front will move south over the southern Plains toward the Gulf coast, supporting strong northwesterly winds and dry surface conditions over parts of southwest TX. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before an Arctic front arrives with much colder temperatures. ...Southwest Texas & Rio Grande Valley... Behind the leading cold front, strong northwesterly surface flow is expected across the Rio Grande Valley and Southwest Texas on Friday. Several days of dry/breezy conditions have allowed antecedent fine fuels to dry sufficiently to support fire spread. Winds will be strongest through early afternoon before weakening into the overnight hours as the surface low lifts away to the northeast. A few hours of overlap of the stronger winds with RH values below 20% will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Have broadened the Elevated risk area into more of South Texas based on the latest guidance. The prior forecast reasoning otherwise remains valid. ..Wendt.. 01/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... The surface low previously over the southern Plains is forecast to deepen rapidly and lift away into the OH Valley as the parent trough intensifies over the Midwest. In the wake of the trough/low, a cold front will move south over the southern Plains toward the Gulf coast, supporting strong northwesterly winds and dry surface conditions over parts of southwest TX. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before an Arctic front arrives with much colder temperatures. ...Southwest Texas & Rio Grande Valley... Behind the leading cold front, strong northwesterly surface flow is expected across the Rio Grande Valley and Southwest Texas on Friday. Several days of dry/breezy conditions have allowed antecedent fine fuels to dry sufficiently to support fire spread. Winds will be strongest through early afternoon before weakening into the overnight hours as the surface low lifts away to the northeast. A few hours of overlap of the stronger winds with RH values below 20% will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Have broadened the Elevated risk area into more of South Texas based on the latest guidance. The prior forecast reasoning otherwise remains valid. ..Wendt.. 01/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... The surface low previously over the southern Plains is forecast to deepen rapidly and lift away into the OH Valley as the parent trough intensifies over the Midwest. In the wake of the trough/low, a cold front will move south over the southern Plains toward the Gulf coast, supporting strong northwesterly winds and dry surface conditions over parts of southwest TX. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before an Arctic front arrives with much colder temperatures. ...Southwest Texas & Rio Grande Valley... Behind the leading cold front, strong northwesterly surface flow is expected across the Rio Grande Valley and Southwest Texas on Friday. Several days of dry/breezy conditions have allowed antecedent fine fuels to dry sufficiently to support fire spread. Winds will be strongest through early afternoon before weakening into the overnight hours as the surface low lifts away to the northeast. A few hours of overlap of the stronger winds with RH values below 20% will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more