Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited on Sunday across most of the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of the southern High Plains. The dry air mass currently in place across the Southwest and southern High Plains will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, the upper low currently moving onshore across CA is forecast to reach the southern Rockies by around peak heating Sunday afternoon. Westerly mid-level winds are forecast to strengthen as result, but the lack of an appreciable mixed layer over the southern Rockies will likely modulate the depth of boundary-layer mixing and subsequently the degree of downward momentum transfer. Additionally, the arrival of a weak cold front (currently moving south across the northern Plains as of early Saturday morning) and building surface high pressure across the southern Plains should be a limiting factor for strong gradient winds. Consequently, the strongest wind gusts should manifest along, and in the lee of, more prominent terrain features. Recent ensemble guidance appears to capture this trend well with high probabilities for winds above 20 mph noted from the Sacramento Mountains in southern NM to the Davis Mountains in southwest TX. Given the antecedent dry conditions, localized elevated fire weather conditions appear probable. However, the limited extent of the threat and limited fuel status (ERC values near to below the 50th percentile) preclude highlights at this time. ..Moore.. 12/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited on Sunday across most of the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of the southern High Plains. The dry air mass currently in place across the Southwest and southern High Plains will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, the upper low currently moving onshore across CA is forecast to reach the southern Rockies by around peak heating Sunday afternoon. Westerly mid-level winds are forecast to strengthen as result, but the lack of an appreciable mixed layer over the southern Rockies will likely modulate the depth of boundary-layer mixing and subsequently the degree of downward momentum transfer. Additionally, the arrival of a weak cold front (currently moving south across the northern Plains as of early Saturday morning) and building surface high pressure across the southern Plains should be a limiting factor for strong gradient winds. Consequently, the strongest wind gusts should manifest along, and in the lee of, more prominent terrain features. Recent ensemble guidance appears to capture this trend well with high probabilities for winds above 20 mph noted from the Sacramento Mountains in southern NM to the Davis Mountains in southwest TX. Given the antecedent dry conditions, localized elevated fire weather conditions appear probable. However, the limited extent of the threat and limited fuel status (ERC values near to below the 50th percentile) preclude highlights at this time. ..Moore.. 12/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited on Sunday across most of the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of the southern High Plains. The dry air mass currently in place across the Southwest and southern High Plains will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, the upper low currently moving onshore across CA is forecast to reach the southern Rockies by around peak heating Sunday afternoon. Westerly mid-level winds are forecast to strengthen as result, but the lack of an appreciable mixed layer over the southern Rockies will likely modulate the depth of boundary-layer mixing and subsequently the degree of downward momentum transfer. Additionally, the arrival of a weak cold front (currently moving south across the northern Plains as of early Saturday morning) and building surface high pressure across the southern Plains should be a limiting factor for strong gradient winds. Consequently, the strongest wind gusts should manifest along, and in the lee of, more prominent terrain features. Recent ensemble guidance appears to capture this trend well with high probabilities for winds above 20 mph noted from the Sacramento Mountains in southern NM to the Davis Mountains in southwest TX. Given the antecedent dry conditions, localized elevated fire weather conditions appear probable. However, the limited extent of the threat and limited fuel status (ERC values near to below the 50th percentile) preclude highlights at this time. ..Moore.. 12/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited today across the country. Latest surface observations show persistent dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains where dewpoints are in the low to mid teens. This dry air mass will remain in place amid a mean (albeit weak) westerly flow regime. Recent guidance suggests widespread RH reductions into the low teens (and perhaps single digits) are likely across eastern NM into western TX; however, recent RAP/HRRR runs have initialized with a slight dry-bias across the Southwest that may be influencing these drier forecasts. Furthermore, increasing cloud cover around peak heating may modulate RH reductions to some degree. Areas of elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features across central NM to southwest TX, but the aforementioned forecast concerns, combined with generally weak gradient winds and modest fuel status, preclude fire weather highlights. ..Moore.. 12/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited today across the country. Latest surface observations show persistent dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains where dewpoints are in the low to mid teens. This dry air mass will remain in place amid a mean (albeit weak) westerly flow regime. Recent guidance suggests widespread RH reductions into the low teens (and perhaps single digits) are likely across eastern NM into western TX; however, recent RAP/HRRR runs have initialized with a slight dry-bias across the Southwest that may be influencing these drier forecasts. Furthermore, increasing cloud cover around peak heating may modulate RH reductions to some degree. Areas of elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features across central NM to southwest TX, but the aforementioned forecast concerns, combined with generally weak gradient winds and modest fuel status, preclude fire weather highlights. ..Moore.. 12/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited today across the country. Latest surface observations show persistent dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains where dewpoints are in the low to mid teens. This dry air mass will remain in place amid a mean (albeit weak) westerly flow regime. Recent guidance suggests widespread RH reductions into the low teens (and perhaps single digits) are likely across eastern NM into western TX; however, recent RAP/HRRR runs have initialized with a slight dry-bias across the Southwest that may be influencing these drier forecasts. Furthermore, increasing cloud cover around peak heating may modulate RH reductions to some degree. Areas of elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features across central NM to southwest TX, but the aforementioned forecast concerns, combined with generally weak gradient winds and modest fuel status, preclude fire weather highlights. ..Moore.. 12/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited today across the country. Latest surface observations show persistent dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains where dewpoints are in the low to mid teens. This dry air mass will remain in place amid a mean (albeit weak) westerly flow regime. Recent guidance suggests widespread RH reductions into the low teens (and perhaps single digits) are likely across eastern NM into western TX; however, recent RAP/HRRR runs have initialized with a slight dry-bias across the Southwest that may be influencing these drier forecasts. Furthermore, increasing cloud cover around peak heating may modulate RH reductions to some degree. Areas of elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features across central NM to southwest TX, but the aforementioned forecast concerns, combined with generally weak gradient winds and modest fuel status, preclude fire weather highlights. ..Moore.. 12/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited today across the country. Latest surface observations show persistent dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains where dewpoints are in the low to mid teens. This dry air mass will remain in place amid a mean (albeit weak) westerly flow regime. Recent guidance suggests widespread RH reductions into the low teens (and perhaps single digits) are likely across eastern NM into western TX; however, recent RAP/HRRR runs have initialized with a slight dry-bias across the Southwest that may be influencing these drier forecasts. Furthermore, increasing cloud cover around peak heating may modulate RH reductions to some degree. Areas of elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features across central NM to southwest TX, but the aforementioned forecast concerns, combined with generally weak gradient winds and modest fuel status, preclude fire weather highlights. ..Moore.. 12/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited today across the country. Latest surface observations show persistent dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains where dewpoints are in the low to mid teens. This dry air mass will remain in place amid a mean (albeit weak) westerly flow regime. Recent guidance suggests widespread RH reductions into the low teens (and perhaps single digits) are likely across eastern NM into western TX; however, recent RAP/HRRR runs have initialized with a slight dry-bias across the Southwest that may be influencing these drier forecasts. Furthermore, increasing cloud cover around peak heating may modulate RH reductions to some degree. Areas of elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features across central NM to southwest TX, but the aforementioned forecast concerns, combined with generally weak gradient winds and modest fuel status, preclude fire weather highlights. ..Moore.. 12/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes will progress across the OH/TN Valleys and Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. A separate shortwave trough initially over the Southwest will move across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley, and eventually merge with the eastern U.S. trough. Dry/stable conditions will prevail across a large majority of the CONUS, precluding appreciable thunderstorm potential. While modest low-level moisture return should occur across parts of the TX Coast into southern LA Sunday night ahead of the southern-stream shortwave trough, MUCAPE is forecast to remain very weak. Accordingly, thunderstorm potential across these areas appears less than 10%. ..Gleason.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes will progress across the OH/TN Valleys and Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. A separate shortwave trough initially over the Southwest will move across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley, and eventually merge with the eastern U.S. trough. Dry/stable conditions will prevail across a large majority of the CONUS, precluding appreciable thunderstorm potential. While modest low-level moisture return should occur across parts of the TX Coast into southern LA Sunday night ahead of the southern-stream shortwave trough, MUCAPE is forecast to remain very weak. Accordingly, thunderstorm potential across these areas appears less than 10%. ..Gleason.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes will progress across the OH/TN Valleys and Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. A separate shortwave trough initially over the Southwest will move across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley, and eventually merge with the eastern U.S. trough. Dry/stable conditions will prevail across a large majority of the CONUS, precluding appreciable thunderstorm potential. While modest low-level moisture return should occur across parts of the TX Coast into southern LA Sunday night ahead of the southern-stream shortwave trough, MUCAPE is forecast to remain very weak. Accordingly, thunderstorm potential across these areas appears less than 10%. ..Gleason.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes will progress across the OH/TN Valleys and Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. A separate shortwave trough initially over the Southwest will move across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley, and eventually merge with the eastern U.S. trough. Dry/stable conditions will prevail across a large majority of the CONUS, precluding appreciable thunderstorm potential. While modest low-level moisture return should occur across parts of the TX Coast into southern LA Sunday night ahead of the southern-stream shortwave trough, MUCAPE is forecast to remain very weak. Accordingly, thunderstorm potential across these areas appears less than 10%. ..Gleason.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes will progress across the OH/TN Valleys and Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. A separate shortwave trough initially over the Southwest will move across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley, and eventually merge with the eastern U.S. trough. Dry/stable conditions will prevail across a large majority of the CONUS, precluding appreciable thunderstorm potential. While modest low-level moisture return should occur across parts of the TX Coast into southern LA Sunday night ahead of the southern-stream shortwave trough, MUCAPE is forecast to remain very weak. Accordingly, thunderstorm potential across these areas appears less than 10%. ..Gleason.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes will progress across the OH/TN Valleys and Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. A separate shortwave trough initially over the Southwest will move across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley, and eventually merge with the eastern U.S. trough. Dry/stable conditions will prevail across a large majority of the CONUS, precluding appreciable thunderstorm potential. While modest low-level moisture return should occur across parts of the TX Coast into southern LA Sunday night ahead of the southern-stream shortwave trough, MUCAPE is forecast to remain very weak. Accordingly, thunderstorm potential across these areas appears less than 10%. ..Gleason.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little chance of thunderstorms will exist across the country today. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-air pattern will persist today, with a trough exiting the East Coast, and another dropping south over the upper MS Valley. At the surface, relatively stable air will exist due to high pressure and offshore winds over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. To the west, a highly amplified upper trough near the West Coast will move east, eventually reaching UT/AZ early Sunday. While cool midlevel temperatures will exist beneath this trough, winds veering to westerly with its passage will result in downward motion and drying across much of the region. Precipitation chances will be maximized early in the day, and forecast soundings indicate little instability present to support thunderstorms within the north/south oriented precipitation band which is forecast to dwindle. As such, less than 10% thunderstorm probabilities are forecast for today. ..Jewell/Moore.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little chance of thunderstorms will exist across the country today. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-air pattern will persist today, with a trough exiting the East Coast, and another dropping south over the upper MS Valley. At the surface, relatively stable air will exist due to high pressure and offshore winds over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. To the west, a highly amplified upper trough near the West Coast will move east, eventually reaching UT/AZ early Sunday. While cool midlevel temperatures will exist beneath this trough, winds veering to westerly with its passage will result in downward motion and drying across much of the region. Precipitation chances will be maximized early in the day, and forecast soundings indicate little instability present to support thunderstorms within the north/south oriented precipitation band which is forecast to dwindle. As such, less than 10% thunderstorm probabilities are forecast for today. ..Jewell/Moore.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little chance of thunderstorms will exist across the country today. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-air pattern will persist today, with a trough exiting the East Coast, and another dropping south over the upper MS Valley. At the surface, relatively stable air will exist due to high pressure and offshore winds over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. To the west, a highly amplified upper trough near the West Coast will move east, eventually reaching UT/AZ early Sunday. While cool midlevel temperatures will exist beneath this trough, winds veering to westerly with its passage will result in downward motion and drying across much of the region. Precipitation chances will be maximized early in the day, and forecast soundings indicate little instability present to support thunderstorms within the north/south oriented precipitation band which is forecast to dwindle. As such, less than 10% thunderstorm probabilities are forecast for today. ..Jewell/Moore.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little chance of thunderstorms will exist across the country today. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-air pattern will persist today, with a trough exiting the East Coast, and another dropping south over the upper MS Valley. At the surface, relatively stable air will exist due to high pressure and offshore winds over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. To the west, a highly amplified upper trough near the West Coast will move east, eventually reaching UT/AZ early Sunday. While cool midlevel temperatures will exist beneath this trough, winds veering to westerly with its passage will result in downward motion and drying across much of the region. Precipitation chances will be maximized early in the day, and forecast soundings indicate little instability present to support thunderstorms within the north/south oriented precipitation band which is forecast to dwindle. As such, less than 10% thunderstorm probabilities are forecast for today. ..Jewell/Moore.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little chance of thunderstorms will exist across the country today. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-air pattern will persist today, with a trough exiting the East Coast, and another dropping south over the upper MS Valley. At the surface, relatively stable air will exist due to high pressure and offshore winds over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. To the west, a highly amplified upper trough near the West Coast will move east, eventually reaching UT/AZ early Sunday. While cool midlevel temperatures will exist beneath this trough, winds veering to westerly with its passage will result in downward motion and drying across much of the region. Precipitation chances will be maximized early in the day, and forecast soundings indicate little instability present to support thunderstorms within the north/south oriented precipitation band which is forecast to dwindle. As such, less than 10% thunderstorm probabilities are forecast for today. ..Jewell/Moore.. 12/30/2023 Read more