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1 year 7 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023
Valid 302000Z - 311200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential still appears low through tonight.
...20Z Update...
No changes. See the previous outlook (below) for details.
..Squitieri.. 12/30/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving eastward across
central/southern CA this morning. An extensive precipitation band
associated with this shortwave is expected to weaken later this
morning, as stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced eastward
of available moisture. In the wake of the early-morning
precipitation, showers may develop across near-coastal regions of
central/southern CA by midday into early afternoon. However, with
instability expected to remain quite weak and convection likely to
be rather shallow and low-topped, lightning potential appears low.
Elsewhere, persistent dry/stable conditions will limit thunderstorm
potential across the rest of the CONUS.
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed.
See previous discussion below.
..Thornton.. 12/30/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited on Sunday
across most of the country, though localized concerns may emerge
across parts of the southern High Plains. The dry air mass currently
in place across the Southwest and southern High Plains will largely
remain in place over the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, the upper low
currently moving onshore across CA is forecast to reach the southern
Rockies by around peak heating Sunday afternoon. Westerly mid-level
winds are forecast to strengthen as result, but the lack of an
appreciable mixed layer over the southern Rockies will likely
modulate the depth of boundary-layer mixing and subsequently the
degree of downward momentum transfer. Additionally, the arrival of a
weak cold front (currently moving south across the northern Plains
as of early Saturday morning) and building surface high pressure
across the southern Plains should be a limiting factor for strong
gradient winds. Consequently, the strongest wind gusts should
manifest along, and in the lee of, more prominent terrain features.
Recent ensemble guidance appears to capture this trend well with
high probabilities for winds above 20 mph noted from the Sacramento
Mountains in southern NM to the Davis Mountains in southwest TX.
Given the antecedent dry conditions, localized elevated fire weather
conditions appear probable. However, the limited extent of the
threat and limited fuel status (ERC values near to below the 50th
percentile) preclude highlights at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed.
See previous discussion below.
..Thornton.. 12/30/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited on Sunday
across most of the country, though localized concerns may emerge
across parts of the southern High Plains. The dry air mass currently
in place across the Southwest and southern High Plains will largely
remain in place over the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, the upper low
currently moving onshore across CA is forecast to reach the southern
Rockies by around peak heating Sunday afternoon. Westerly mid-level
winds are forecast to strengthen as result, but the lack of an
appreciable mixed layer over the southern Rockies will likely
modulate the depth of boundary-layer mixing and subsequently the
degree of downward momentum transfer. Additionally, the arrival of a
weak cold front (currently moving south across the northern Plains
as of early Saturday morning) and building surface high pressure
across the southern Plains should be a limiting factor for strong
gradient winds. Consequently, the strongest wind gusts should
manifest along, and in the lee of, more prominent terrain features.
Recent ensemble guidance appears to capture this trend well with
high probabilities for winds above 20 mph noted from the Sacramento
Mountains in southern NM to the Davis Mountains in southwest TX.
Given the antecedent dry conditions, localized elevated fire weather
conditions appear probable. However, the limited extent of the
threat and limited fuel status (ERC values near to below the 50th
percentile) preclude highlights at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed.
See previous discussion below.
..Thornton.. 12/30/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited on Sunday
across most of the country, though localized concerns may emerge
across parts of the southern High Plains. The dry air mass currently
in place across the Southwest and southern High Plains will largely
remain in place over the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, the upper low
currently moving onshore across CA is forecast to reach the southern
Rockies by around peak heating Sunday afternoon. Westerly mid-level
winds are forecast to strengthen as result, but the lack of an
appreciable mixed layer over the southern Rockies will likely
modulate the depth of boundary-layer mixing and subsequently the
degree of downward momentum transfer. Additionally, the arrival of a
weak cold front (currently moving south across the northern Plains
as of early Saturday morning) and building surface high pressure
across the southern Plains should be a limiting factor for strong
gradient winds. Consequently, the strongest wind gusts should
manifest along, and in the lee of, more prominent terrain features.
Recent ensemble guidance appears to capture this trend well with
high probabilities for winds above 20 mph noted from the Sacramento
Mountains in southern NM to the Davis Mountains in southwest TX.
Given the antecedent dry conditions, localized elevated fire weather
conditions appear probable. However, the limited extent of the
threat and limited fuel status (ERC values near to below the 50th
percentile) preclude highlights at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed.
See previous discussion below.
..Thornton.. 12/30/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited on Sunday
across most of the country, though localized concerns may emerge
across parts of the southern High Plains. The dry air mass currently
in place across the Southwest and southern High Plains will largely
remain in place over the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, the upper low
currently moving onshore across CA is forecast to reach the southern
Rockies by around peak heating Sunday afternoon. Westerly mid-level
winds are forecast to strengthen as result, but the lack of an
appreciable mixed layer over the southern Rockies will likely
modulate the depth of boundary-layer mixing and subsequently the
degree of downward momentum transfer. Additionally, the arrival of a
weak cold front (currently moving south across the northern Plains
as of early Saturday morning) and building surface high pressure
across the southern Plains should be a limiting factor for strong
gradient winds. Consequently, the strongest wind gusts should
manifest along, and in the lee of, more prominent terrain features.
Recent ensemble guidance appears to capture this trend well with
high probabilities for winds above 20 mph noted from the Sacramento
Mountains in southern NM to the Davis Mountains in southwest TX.
Given the antecedent dry conditions, localized elevated fire weather
conditions appear probable. However, the limited extent of the
threat and limited fuel status (ERC values near to below the 50th
percentile) preclude highlights at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed.
See previous discussion below.
..Thornton.. 12/30/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited on Sunday
across most of the country, though localized concerns may emerge
across parts of the southern High Plains. The dry air mass currently
in place across the Southwest and southern High Plains will largely
remain in place over the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, the upper low
currently moving onshore across CA is forecast to reach the southern
Rockies by around peak heating Sunday afternoon. Westerly mid-level
winds are forecast to strengthen as result, but the lack of an
appreciable mixed layer over the southern Rockies will likely
modulate the depth of boundary-layer mixing and subsequently the
degree of downward momentum transfer. Additionally, the arrival of a
weak cold front (currently moving south across the northern Plains
as of early Saturday morning) and building surface high pressure
across the southern Plains should be a limiting factor for strong
gradient winds. Consequently, the strongest wind gusts should
manifest along, and in the lee of, more prominent terrain features.
Recent ensemble guidance appears to capture this trend well with
high probabilities for winds above 20 mph noted from the Sacramento
Mountains in southern NM to the Davis Mountains in southwest TX.
Given the antecedent dry conditions, localized elevated fire weather
conditions appear probable. However, the limited extent of the
threat and limited fuel status (ERC values near to below the 50th
percentile) preclude highlights at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1043 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023
Valid 301700Z - 311200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 12/30/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will remain limited today across the country.
Latest surface observations show persistent dry conditions across
the Southwest into the southern High Plains where dewpoints are in
the low to mid teens. This dry air mass will remain in place amid a
mean (albeit weak) westerly flow regime. Recent guidance suggests
widespread RH reductions into the low teens (and perhaps single
digits) are likely across eastern NM into western TX; however,
recent RAP/HRRR runs have initialized with a slight dry-bias across
the Southwest that may be influencing these drier forecasts.
Furthermore, increasing cloud cover around peak heating may modulate
RH reductions to some degree. Areas of elevated conditions are
possible in the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features
across central NM to southwest TX, but the aforementioned forecast
concerns, combined with generally weak gradient winds and modest
fuel status, preclude fire weather highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1043 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023
Valid 301700Z - 311200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 12/30/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will remain limited today across the country.
Latest surface observations show persistent dry conditions across
the Southwest into the southern High Plains where dewpoints are in
the low to mid teens. This dry air mass will remain in place amid a
mean (albeit weak) westerly flow regime. Recent guidance suggests
widespread RH reductions into the low teens (and perhaps single
digits) are likely across eastern NM into western TX; however,
recent RAP/HRRR runs have initialized with a slight dry-bias across
the Southwest that may be influencing these drier forecasts.
Furthermore, increasing cloud cover around peak heating may modulate
RH reductions to some degree. Areas of elevated conditions are
possible in the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features
across central NM to southwest TX, but the aforementioned forecast
concerns, combined with generally weak gradient winds and modest
fuel status, preclude fire weather highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1043 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023
Valid 301700Z - 311200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 12/30/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will remain limited today across the country.
Latest surface observations show persistent dry conditions across
the Southwest into the southern High Plains where dewpoints are in
the low to mid teens. This dry air mass will remain in place amid a
mean (albeit weak) westerly flow regime. Recent guidance suggests
widespread RH reductions into the low teens (and perhaps single
digits) are likely across eastern NM into western TX; however,
recent RAP/HRRR runs have initialized with a slight dry-bias across
the Southwest that may be influencing these drier forecasts.
Furthermore, increasing cloud cover around peak heating may modulate
RH reductions to some degree. Areas of elevated conditions are
possible in the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features
across central NM to southwest TX, but the aforementioned forecast
concerns, combined with generally weak gradient winds and modest
fuel status, preclude fire weather highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1043 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023
Valid 301700Z - 311200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 12/30/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will remain limited today across the country.
Latest surface observations show persistent dry conditions across
the Southwest into the southern High Plains where dewpoints are in
the low to mid teens. This dry air mass will remain in place amid a
mean (albeit weak) westerly flow regime. Recent guidance suggests
widespread RH reductions into the low teens (and perhaps single
digits) are likely across eastern NM into western TX; however,
recent RAP/HRRR runs have initialized with a slight dry-bias across
the Southwest that may be influencing these drier forecasts.
Furthermore, increasing cloud cover around peak heating may modulate
RH reductions to some degree. Areas of elevated conditions are
possible in the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features
across central NM to southwest TX, but the aforementioned forecast
concerns, combined with generally weak gradient winds and modest
fuel status, preclude fire weather highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1007 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are still not expected on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
A positively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the eastern CONUS
as a second mid-level trough approaches the Southwest
tomorrow/Sunday. Surface high pressure and an associated cool, dry
airmass will overspread much of the CONUS, with static stability and
mass subsidence limiting thunderstorm potential.
..Squitieri.. 12/30/2023
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1007 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are still not expected on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
A positively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the eastern CONUS
as a second mid-level trough approaches the Southwest
tomorrow/Sunday. Surface high pressure and an associated cool, dry
airmass will overspread much of the CONUS, with static stability and
mass subsidence limiting thunderstorm potential.
..Squitieri.. 12/30/2023
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1007 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are still not expected on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
A positively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the eastern CONUS
as a second mid-level trough approaches the Southwest
tomorrow/Sunday. Surface high pressure and an associated cool, dry
airmass will overspread much of the CONUS, with static stability and
mass subsidence limiting thunderstorm potential.
..Squitieri.. 12/30/2023
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1007 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are still not expected on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
A positively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the eastern CONUS
as a second mid-level trough approaches the Southwest
tomorrow/Sunday. Surface high pressure and an associated cool, dry
airmass will overspread much of the CONUS, with static stability and
mass subsidence limiting thunderstorm potential.
..Squitieri.. 12/30/2023
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1002 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023
Valid 301630Z - 311200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low through tonight.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving eastward across
central/southern CA this morning. An extensive precipitation band
associated with this shortwave is expected to weaken later this
morning, as stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced eastward
of available moisture. In the wake of the early-morning
precipitation, showers may develop across near-coastal regions of
central/southern CA by midday into early afternoon. However, with
instability expected to remain quite weak and convection likely to
be rather shallow and low-topped, lightning potential appears low.
Elsewhere, persistent dry/stable conditions will limit thunderstorm
potential across the rest of the CONUS.
..Dean.. 12/30/2023
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1002 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023
Valid 301630Z - 311200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low through tonight.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving eastward across
central/southern CA this morning. An extensive precipitation band
associated with this shortwave is expected to weaken later this
morning, as stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced eastward
of available moisture. In the wake of the early-morning
precipitation, showers may develop across near-coastal regions of
central/southern CA by midday into early afternoon. However, with
instability expected to remain quite weak and convection likely to
be rather shallow and low-topped, lightning potential appears low.
Elsewhere, persistent dry/stable conditions will limit thunderstorm
potential across the rest of the CONUS.
..Dean.. 12/30/2023
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1002 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023
Valid 301630Z - 311200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low through tonight.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving eastward across
central/southern CA this morning. An extensive precipitation band
associated with this shortwave is expected to weaken later this
morning, as stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced eastward
of available moisture. In the wake of the early-morning
precipitation, showers may develop across near-coastal regions of
central/southern CA by midday into early afternoon. However, with
instability expected to remain quite weak and convection likely to
be rather shallow and low-topped, lightning potential appears low.
Elsewhere, persistent dry/stable conditions will limit thunderstorm
potential across the rest of the CONUS.
..Dean.. 12/30/2023
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1002 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023
Valid 301630Z - 311200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low through tonight.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving eastward across
central/southern CA this morning. An extensive precipitation band
associated with this shortwave is expected to weaken later this
morning, as stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced eastward
of available moisture. In the wake of the early-morning
precipitation, showers may develop across near-coastal regions of
central/southern CA by midday into early afternoon. However, with
instability expected to remain quite weak and convection likely to
be rather shallow and low-topped, lightning potential appears low.
Elsewhere, persistent dry/stable conditions will limit thunderstorm
potential across the rest of the CONUS.
..Dean.. 12/30/2023
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0627 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023
Valid 301300Z - 311200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
today.
...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough
moving ashore along the West Coast and it is forecast to partially
bifurcate, as a mid-level low evolves over northern AZ by Sunday
morning and a trough weakens over the Pacific Northwest. A band of
showers will spread inland across the West Coast during the day
before precipitation coverage decreases with eastward extent by
evening. Cool/stable conditions farther east due in large part to
surface high pressure over the Gulf will result in conditions
hostile for thunderstorm development over the central/eastern
states.
..Smith/Marsh.. 12/30/2023
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0627 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023
Valid 301300Z - 311200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
today.
...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough
moving ashore along the West Coast and it is forecast to partially
bifurcate, as a mid-level low evolves over northern AZ by Sunday
morning and a trough weakens over the Pacific Northwest. A band of
showers will spread inland across the West Coast during the day
before precipitation coverage decreases with eastward extent by
evening. Cool/stable conditions farther east due in large part to
surface high pressure over the Gulf will result in conditions
hostile for thunderstorm development over the central/eastern
states.
..Smith/Marsh.. 12/30/2023
Read more
Checked
5 years 10 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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