Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough moving ashore along the West Coast and it is forecast to partially bifurcate, as a mid-level low evolves over northern AZ by Sunday morning and a trough weakens over the Pacific Northwest. A band of showers will spread inland across the West Coast during the day before precipitation coverage decreases with eastward extent by evening. Cool/stable conditions farther east due in large part to surface high pressure over the Gulf will result in conditions hostile for thunderstorm development over the central/eastern states. ..Smith/Marsh.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough moving ashore along the West Coast and it is forecast to partially bifurcate, as a mid-level low evolves over northern AZ by Sunday morning and a trough weakens over the Pacific Northwest. A band of showers will spread inland across the West Coast during the day before precipitation coverage decreases with eastward extent by evening. Cool/stable conditions farther east due in large part to surface high pressure over the Gulf will result in conditions hostile for thunderstorm development over the central/eastern states. ..Smith/Marsh.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough moving ashore along the West Coast and it is forecast to partially bifurcate, as a mid-level low evolves over northern AZ by Sunday morning and a trough weakens over the Pacific Northwest. A band of showers will spread inland across the West Coast during the day before precipitation coverage decreases with eastward extent by evening. Cool/stable conditions farther east due in large part to surface high pressure over the Gulf will result in conditions hostile for thunderstorm development over the central/eastern states. ..Smith/Marsh.. 12/30/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is expected to persist across the CONUS through the extended forecast period. A southern-stream shortwave trough should move quickly eastward across the southern Plains, Southeast, and northern Gulf of Mexico next Tuesday into Thursday. While some elevated thunderstorms may occur across parts of TX Tuesday afternoon and night, instability will likely remain too weak to support any severe threat. Appreciable low-level moisture should also be confined to the northern Gulf, along and south of a front. Little severe potential is evident as this shortwave trough progresses eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Wednesday into Thursday. Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that another upper trough/low will move across the southern Plains around next Friday into Saturday. Similar to the preceding upper trough, substantial inland advance of rich low-level moisture appears unlikely, suggesting overall low severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is expected to persist across the CONUS through the extended forecast period. A southern-stream shortwave trough should move quickly eastward across the southern Plains, Southeast, and northern Gulf of Mexico next Tuesday into Thursday. While some elevated thunderstorms may occur across parts of TX Tuesday afternoon and night, instability will likely remain too weak to support any severe threat. Appreciable low-level moisture should also be confined to the northern Gulf, along and south of a front. Little severe potential is evident as this shortwave trough progresses eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Wednesday into Thursday. Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that another upper trough/low will move across the southern Plains around next Friday into Saturday. Similar to the preceding upper trough, substantial inland advance of rich low-level moisture appears unlikely, suggesting overall low severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is expected to persist across the CONUS through the extended forecast period. A southern-stream shortwave trough should move quickly eastward across the southern Plains, Southeast, and northern Gulf of Mexico next Tuesday into Thursday. While some elevated thunderstorms may occur across parts of TX Tuesday afternoon and night, instability will likely remain too weak to support any severe threat. Appreciable low-level moisture should also be confined to the northern Gulf, along and south of a front. Little severe potential is evident as this shortwave trough progresses eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Wednesday into Thursday. Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that another upper trough/low will move across the southern Plains around next Friday into Saturday. Similar to the preceding upper trough, substantial inland advance of rich low-level moisture appears unlikely, suggesting overall low severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is expected to persist across the CONUS through the extended forecast period. A southern-stream shortwave trough should move quickly eastward across the southern Plains, Southeast, and northern Gulf of Mexico next Tuesday into Thursday. While some elevated thunderstorms may occur across parts of TX Tuesday afternoon and night, instability will likely remain too weak to support any severe threat. Appreciable low-level moisture should also be confined to the northern Gulf, along and south of a front. Little severe potential is evident as this shortwave trough progresses eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Wednesday into Thursday. Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that another upper trough/low will move across the southern Plains around next Friday into Saturday. Similar to the preceding upper trough, substantial inland advance of rich low-level moisture appears unlikely, suggesting overall low severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is expected to persist across the CONUS through the extended forecast period. A southern-stream shortwave trough should move quickly eastward across the southern Plains, Southeast, and northern Gulf of Mexico next Tuesday into Thursday. While some elevated thunderstorms may occur across parts of TX Tuesday afternoon and night, instability will likely remain too weak to support any severe threat. Appreciable low-level moisture should also be confined to the northern Gulf, along and south of a front. Little severe potential is evident as this shortwave trough progresses eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Wednesday into Thursday. Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that another upper trough/low will move across the southern Plains around next Friday into Saturday. Similar to the preceding upper trough, substantial inland advance of rich low-level moisture appears unlikely, suggesting overall low severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is expected to persist across the CONUS through the extended forecast period. A southern-stream shortwave trough should move quickly eastward across the southern Plains, Southeast, and northern Gulf of Mexico next Tuesday into Thursday. While some elevated thunderstorms may occur across parts of TX Tuesday afternoon and night, instability will likely remain too weak to support any severe threat. Appreciable low-level moisture should also be confined to the northern Gulf, along and south of a front. Little severe potential is evident as this shortwave trough progresses eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Wednesday into Thursday. Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that another upper trough/low will move across the southern Plains around next Friday into Saturday. Similar to the preceding upper trough, substantial inland advance of rich low-level moisture appears unlikely, suggesting overall low severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is expected to persist across the CONUS through the extended forecast period. A southern-stream shortwave trough should move quickly eastward across the southern Plains, Southeast, and northern Gulf of Mexico next Tuesday into Thursday. While some elevated thunderstorms may occur across parts of TX Tuesday afternoon and night, instability will likely remain too weak to support any severe threat. Appreciable low-level moisture should also be confined to the northern Gulf, along and south of a front. Little severe potential is evident as this shortwave trough progresses eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Wednesday into Thursday. Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that another upper trough/low will move across the southern Plains around next Friday into Saturday. Similar to the preceding upper trough, substantial inland advance of rich low-level moisture appears unlikely, suggesting overall low severe potential. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positively tilted upper trough over the eastern U.S. should continue to advance over the Southeast and western Atlantic on Monday. In its wake, an expansive surface high will encompass much of the central/eastern CONUS, with offshore/northerly flow occurring over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Farther west, a closed upper low off the coast of southern CA will move eastward over northern Mexico and the Southwest through the period. With a general lack of low-level moisture and related instability over land, thunderstorm potential across the CONUS appears low. ..Gleason.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positively tilted upper trough over the eastern U.S. should continue to advance over the Southeast and western Atlantic on Monday. In its wake, an expansive surface high will encompass much of the central/eastern CONUS, with offshore/northerly flow occurring over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Farther west, a closed upper low off the coast of southern CA will move eastward over northern Mexico and the Southwest through the period. With a general lack of low-level moisture and related instability over land, thunderstorm potential across the CONUS appears low. ..Gleason.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positively tilted upper trough over the eastern U.S. should continue to advance over the Southeast and western Atlantic on Monday. In its wake, an expansive surface high will encompass much of the central/eastern CONUS, with offshore/northerly flow occurring over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Farther west, a closed upper low off the coast of southern CA will move eastward over northern Mexico and the Southwest through the period. With a general lack of low-level moisture and related instability over land, thunderstorm potential across the CONUS appears low. ..Gleason.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positively tilted upper trough over the eastern U.S. should continue to advance over the Southeast and western Atlantic on Monday. In its wake, an expansive surface high will encompass much of the central/eastern CONUS, with offshore/northerly flow occurring over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Farther west, a closed upper low off the coast of southern CA will move eastward over northern Mexico and the Southwest through the period. With a general lack of low-level moisture and related instability over land, thunderstorm potential across the CONUS appears low. ..Gleason.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positively tilted upper trough over the eastern U.S. should continue to advance over the Southeast and western Atlantic on Monday. In its wake, an expansive surface high will encompass much of the central/eastern CONUS, with offshore/northerly flow occurring over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Farther west, a closed upper low off the coast of southern CA will move eastward over northern Mexico and the Southwest through the period. With a general lack of low-level moisture and related instability over land, thunderstorm potential across the CONUS appears low. ..Gleason.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positively tilted upper trough over the eastern U.S. should continue to advance over the Southeast and western Atlantic on Monday. In its wake, an expansive surface high will encompass much of the central/eastern CONUS, with offshore/northerly flow occurring over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Farther west, a closed upper low off the coast of southern CA will move eastward over northern Mexico and the Southwest through the period. With a general lack of low-level moisture and related instability over land, thunderstorm potential across the CONUS appears low. ..Gleason.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positively tilted upper trough over the eastern U.S. should continue to advance over the Southeast and western Atlantic on Monday. In its wake, an expansive surface high will encompass much of the central/eastern CONUS, with offshore/northerly flow occurring over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Farther west, a closed upper low off the coast of southern CA will move eastward over northern Mexico and the Southwest through the period. With a general lack of low-level moisture and related instability over land, thunderstorm potential across the CONUS appears low. ..Gleason.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited on Sunday across most of the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of the southern High Plains. The dry air mass currently in place across the Southwest and southern High Plains will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, the upper low currently moving onshore across CA is forecast to reach the southern Rockies by around peak heating Sunday afternoon. Westerly mid-level winds are forecast to strengthen as result, but the lack of an appreciable mixed layer over the southern Rockies will likely modulate the depth of boundary-layer mixing and subsequently the degree of downward momentum transfer. Additionally, the arrival of a weak cold front (currently moving south across the northern Plains as of early Saturday morning) and building surface high pressure across the southern Plains should be a limiting factor for strong gradient winds. Consequently, the strongest wind gusts should manifest along, and in the lee of, more prominent terrain features. Recent ensemble guidance appears to capture this trend well with high probabilities for winds above 20 mph noted from the Sacramento Mountains in southern NM to the Davis Mountains in southwest TX. Given the antecedent dry conditions, localized elevated fire weather conditions appear probable. However, the limited extent of the threat and limited fuel status (ERC values near to below the 50th percentile) preclude highlights at this time. ..Moore.. 12/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited on Sunday across most of the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of the southern High Plains. The dry air mass currently in place across the Southwest and southern High Plains will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, the upper low currently moving onshore across CA is forecast to reach the southern Rockies by around peak heating Sunday afternoon. Westerly mid-level winds are forecast to strengthen as result, but the lack of an appreciable mixed layer over the southern Rockies will likely modulate the depth of boundary-layer mixing and subsequently the degree of downward momentum transfer. Additionally, the arrival of a weak cold front (currently moving south across the northern Plains as of early Saturday morning) and building surface high pressure across the southern Plains should be a limiting factor for strong gradient winds. Consequently, the strongest wind gusts should manifest along, and in the lee of, more prominent terrain features. Recent ensemble guidance appears to capture this trend well with high probabilities for winds above 20 mph noted from the Sacramento Mountains in southern NM to the Davis Mountains in southwest TX. Given the antecedent dry conditions, localized elevated fire weather conditions appear probable. However, the limited extent of the threat and limited fuel status (ERC values near to below the 50th percentile) preclude highlights at this time. ..Moore.. 12/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited on Sunday across most of the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of the southern High Plains. The dry air mass currently in place across the Southwest and southern High Plains will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, the upper low currently moving onshore across CA is forecast to reach the southern Rockies by around peak heating Sunday afternoon. Westerly mid-level winds are forecast to strengthen as result, but the lack of an appreciable mixed layer over the southern Rockies will likely modulate the depth of boundary-layer mixing and subsequently the degree of downward momentum transfer. Additionally, the arrival of a weak cold front (currently moving south across the northern Plains as of early Saturday morning) and building surface high pressure across the southern Plains should be a limiting factor for strong gradient winds. Consequently, the strongest wind gusts should manifest along, and in the lee of, more prominent terrain features. Recent ensemble guidance appears to capture this trend well with high probabilities for winds above 20 mph noted from the Sacramento Mountains in southern NM to the Davis Mountains in southwest TX. Given the antecedent dry conditions, localized elevated fire weather conditions appear probable. However, the limited extent of the threat and limited fuel status (ERC values near to below the 50th percentile) preclude highlights at this time. ..Moore.. 12/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more