Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southwestern Louisiana. A few lightning strikes may occur along the coast of northern California. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move from the Desert Southwest to west Texas on Tuesday. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will remain over the western Gulf of Mexico extending westward to the lower Texas coast. Elevated thunderstorms may develop across parts of central or south-central Texas Tuesday afternoon, near a low-level jet and within a zone of strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching trough. The potential for thunderstorm development will shift eastward Tuesday evening into Tuesday night across the middle Texas Coast, southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. The higher surface dewpoints and stronger instability, are expected to remain offshore. Therefore, no severe threat is expected. Elsewhere, a few lightning strikes, not associated with a severe threat, may occur along the coast of northern California as an upper-level trough approaches on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southwestern Louisiana. A few lightning strikes may occur along the coast of northern California. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move from the Desert Southwest to west Texas on Tuesday. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will remain over the western Gulf of Mexico extending westward to the lower Texas coast. Elevated thunderstorms may develop across parts of central or south-central Texas Tuesday afternoon, near a low-level jet and within a zone of strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching trough. The potential for thunderstorm development will shift eastward Tuesday evening into Tuesday night across the middle Texas Coast, southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. The higher surface dewpoints and stronger instability, are expected to remain offshore. Therefore, no severe threat is expected. Elsewhere, a few lightning strikes, not associated with a severe threat, may occur along the coast of northern California as an upper-level trough approaches on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southwestern Louisiana. A few lightning strikes may occur along the coast of northern California. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move from the Desert Southwest to west Texas on Tuesday. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will remain over the western Gulf of Mexico extending westward to the lower Texas coast. Elevated thunderstorms may develop across parts of central or south-central Texas Tuesday afternoon, near a low-level jet and within a zone of strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching trough. The potential for thunderstorm development will shift eastward Tuesday evening into Tuesday night across the middle Texas Coast, southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. The higher surface dewpoints and stronger instability, are expected to remain offshore. Therefore, no severe threat is expected. Elsewhere, a few lightning strikes, not associated with a severe threat, may occur along the coast of northern California as an upper-level trough approaches on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southwestern Louisiana. A few lightning strikes may occur along the coast of northern California. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move from the Desert Southwest to west Texas on Tuesday. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will remain over the western Gulf of Mexico extending westward to the lower Texas coast. Elevated thunderstorms may develop across parts of central or south-central Texas Tuesday afternoon, near a low-level jet and within a zone of strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching trough. The potential for thunderstorm development will shift eastward Tuesday evening into Tuesday night across the middle Texas Coast, southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. The higher surface dewpoints and stronger instability, are expected to remain offshore. Therefore, no severe threat is expected. Elsewhere, a few lightning strikes, not associated with a severe threat, may occur along the coast of northern California as an upper-level trough approaches on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southwestern Louisiana. A few lightning strikes may occur along the coast of northern California. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move from the Desert Southwest to west Texas on Tuesday. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will remain over the western Gulf of Mexico extending westward to the lower Texas coast. Elevated thunderstorms may develop across parts of central or south-central Texas Tuesday afternoon, near a low-level jet and within a zone of strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching trough. The potential for thunderstorm development will shift eastward Tuesday evening into Tuesday night across the middle Texas Coast, southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. The higher surface dewpoints and stronger instability, are expected to remain offshore. Therefore, no severe threat is expected. Elsewhere, a few lightning strikes, not associated with a severe threat, may occur along the coast of northern California as an upper-level trough approaches on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southwestern Louisiana. A few lightning strikes may occur along the coast of northern California. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move from the Desert Southwest to west Texas on Tuesday. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will remain over the western Gulf of Mexico extending westward to the lower Texas coast. Elevated thunderstorms may develop across parts of central or south-central Texas Tuesday afternoon, near a low-level jet and within a zone of strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching trough. The potential for thunderstorm development will shift eastward Tuesday evening into Tuesday night across the middle Texas Coast, southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. The higher surface dewpoints and stronger instability, are expected to remain offshore. Therefore, no severe threat is expected. Elsewhere, a few lightning strikes, not associated with a severe threat, may occur along the coast of northern California as an upper-level trough approaches on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Early-morning surface observations show a cold front pushing southward across the southern Plains and lower MS River Valley. This front is expected to reach the Gulf Coast by mid to late morning. In its wake, cooler temperatures and generally benign winds are anticipated as surface high pressure builds over the Plains/mid-MS River Valley. These cool/calm conditions will limit the potential for fire weather concerns, including over the southern High Plains were fuel drying has been ongoing in recent days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Early-morning surface observations show a cold front pushing southward across the southern Plains and lower MS River Valley. This front is expected to reach the Gulf Coast by mid to late morning. In its wake, cooler temperatures and generally benign winds are anticipated as surface high pressure builds over the Plains/mid-MS River Valley. These cool/calm conditions will limit the potential for fire weather concerns, including over the southern High Plains were fuel drying has been ongoing in recent days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Early-morning surface observations show a cold front pushing southward across the southern Plains and lower MS River Valley. This front is expected to reach the Gulf Coast by mid to late morning. In its wake, cooler temperatures and generally benign winds are anticipated as surface high pressure builds over the Plains/mid-MS River Valley. These cool/calm conditions will limit the potential for fire weather concerns, including over the southern High Plains were fuel drying has been ongoing in recent days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Early-morning surface observations show a cold front pushing southward across the southern Plains and lower MS River Valley. This front is expected to reach the Gulf Coast by mid to late morning. In its wake, cooler temperatures and generally benign winds are anticipated as surface high pressure builds over the Plains/mid-MS River Valley. These cool/calm conditions will limit the potential for fire weather concerns, including over the southern High Plains were fuel drying has been ongoing in recent days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Early-morning surface observations show a cold front pushing southward across the southern Plains and lower MS River Valley. This front is expected to reach the Gulf Coast by mid to late morning. In its wake, cooler temperatures and generally benign winds are anticipated as surface high pressure builds over the Plains/mid-MS River Valley. These cool/calm conditions will limit the potential for fire weather concerns, including over the southern High Plains were fuel drying has been ongoing in recent days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Early-morning surface observations show a cold front pushing southward across the southern Plains and lower MS River Valley. This front is expected to reach the Gulf Coast by mid to late morning. In its wake, cooler temperatures and generally benign winds are anticipated as surface high pressure builds over the Plains/mid-MS River Valley. These cool/calm conditions will limit the potential for fire weather concerns, including over the southern High Plains were fuel drying has been ongoing in recent days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from northern Baja to Chihuahua by the end of the period. Sufficiently steep lapse rates and gradual midlevel moistening within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms late tonight/early Tuesday from southeast AZ into southwest NM. Otherwise, the threat for isolated lightning flashes over the TX/LA coasts will end as convection along a surface cold front continues to shift slowly southeastward to the shelf waters. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from northern Baja to Chihuahua by the end of the period. Sufficiently steep lapse rates and gradual midlevel moistening within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms late tonight/early Tuesday from southeast AZ into southwest NM. Otherwise, the threat for isolated lightning flashes over the TX/LA coasts will end as convection along a surface cold front continues to shift slowly southeastward to the shelf waters. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from northern Baja to Chihuahua by the end of the period. Sufficiently steep lapse rates and gradual midlevel moistening within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms late tonight/early Tuesday from southeast AZ into southwest NM. Otherwise, the threat for isolated lightning flashes over the TX/LA coasts will end as convection along a surface cold front continues to shift slowly southeastward to the shelf waters. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from northern Baja to Chihuahua by the end of the period. Sufficiently steep lapse rates and gradual midlevel moistening within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms late tonight/early Tuesday from southeast AZ into southwest NM. Otherwise, the threat for isolated lightning flashes over the TX/LA coasts will end as convection along a surface cold front continues to shift slowly southeastward to the shelf waters. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from northern Baja to Chihuahua by the end of the period. Sufficiently steep lapse rates and gradual midlevel moistening within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms late tonight/early Tuesday from southeast AZ into southwest NM. Otherwise, the threat for isolated lightning flashes over the TX/LA coasts will end as convection along a surface cold front continues to shift slowly southeastward to the shelf waters. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from northern Baja to Chihuahua by the end of the period. Sufficiently steep lapse rates and gradual midlevel moistening within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms late tonight/early Tuesday from southeast AZ into southwest NM. Otherwise, the threat for isolated lightning flashes over the TX/LA coasts will end as convection along a surface cold front continues to shift slowly southeastward to the shelf waters. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a split upper flow regime over western North America. A mid-level low initially near the CA/Baja California border will move east along the international border and reach NM/Chihuahua by early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level forcing for ascent and cold-air advection in the mid levels will seemingly support an increased chance for convection late this evening over southeastern AZ. This corridor of increased shower/potential thunderstorm activity will spread east overnight into southwestern NM. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are possible early this morning over mainly the shelf waters of the upper coast of TX and southwestern LA. Dry/stable conditions over the remaining portion of the Lower 48 states will be hostile to thunderstorm development. ..Smith.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a split upper flow regime over western North America. A mid-level low initially near the CA/Baja California border will move east along the international border and reach NM/Chihuahua by early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level forcing for ascent and cold-air advection in the mid levels will seemingly support an increased chance for convection late this evening over southeastern AZ. This corridor of increased shower/potential thunderstorm activity will spread east overnight into southwestern NM. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are possible early this morning over mainly the shelf waters of the upper coast of TX and southwestern LA. Dry/stable conditions over the remaining portion of the Lower 48 states will be hostile to thunderstorm development. ..Smith.. 01/01/2024 Read more