Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast and coastal California on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough with attendant 50-70 kt mid-level jet will move quickly eastward over the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday. An associated weak surface low is likewise forecast to develop eastward over the northern Gulf shelf waters, north FL, and western Atlantic through the period. Most global/regional guidance, with exception of the NAM, continues to indicate that rich low-level moisture will remain displaced offshore/south of the central Gulf Coast, and west of the FL Gulf Coast. While some chance for elevated thunderstorms may exist owing to weak MUCAPE inland, appreciable severe potential over land still appears low. Isolated convection also appears possible Wednesday morning and early afternoon across parts of coastal CA, as cold temperatures aloft and large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough move from the eastern Pacific over this area. Weak instability should keep overall lightning coverage rather sparse. ..Gleason.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas during the day toward the Texas Coast and Sabine Valley through Wednesday morning. A few lightning flashes will also be possible along the coast of northern California. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The primary feature of interest today will be a progressive shortwave trough which will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains through 00Z. This feature will be near the Sabine Valley shortly after 12Z Wednesday. At the surface, a sprawling surface ridge will extend from the central/northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Southeast, preventing any substantial moisture return ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough. Given the cool air mass in place over land, little in the way of pressure falls are forecast, with only an "inverted trough" forecast along the TX Coast. Elsewhere, an upper trough amplify as it moves quickly onshore across northern CA. Strong cooling aloft as well as lift along a cold front may result in isolated low-topped convection late in the day. ...TX/LA... Scattered elevated convection is expected to develop over central TX after about 18Z, as cooling aloft occurs with the upper trough, and modest positive theta-e advection materializes during the late afternoon/evening. Elevated MUCAPE on the order of 250-500 J/kg is forecast over most of the area, with indications of SBCAPE over coastal counties of Deep South TX where 60s F dewpoints will exist on easterly flow. It appears that the bulk of the thunderstorm activity will remain north of the cold front, and any surface-based potential will be quite limited in time and space over far southern/coastal areas of TX. Given relatively poor low-level lapse rates forecast within that small moist sector, severe weather is not forecast. ..Jewell/Moore.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas during the day toward the Texas Coast and Sabine Valley through Wednesday morning. A few lightning flashes will also be possible along the coast of northern California. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The primary feature of interest today will be a progressive shortwave trough which will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains through 00Z. This feature will be near the Sabine Valley shortly after 12Z Wednesday. At the surface, a sprawling surface ridge will extend from the central/northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Southeast, preventing any substantial moisture return ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough. Given the cool air mass in place over land, little in the way of pressure falls are forecast, with only an "inverted trough" forecast along the TX Coast. Elsewhere, an upper trough amplify as it moves quickly onshore across northern CA. Strong cooling aloft as well as lift along a cold front may result in isolated low-topped convection late in the day. ...TX/LA... Scattered elevated convection is expected to develop over central TX after about 18Z, as cooling aloft occurs with the upper trough, and modest positive theta-e advection materializes during the late afternoon/evening. Elevated MUCAPE on the order of 250-500 J/kg is forecast over most of the area, with indications of SBCAPE over coastal counties of Deep South TX where 60s F dewpoints will exist on easterly flow. It appears that the bulk of the thunderstorm activity will remain north of the cold front, and any surface-based potential will be quite limited in time and space over far southern/coastal areas of TX. Given relatively poor low-level lapse rates forecast within that small moist sector, severe weather is not forecast. ..Jewell/Moore.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas during the day toward the Texas Coast and Sabine Valley through Wednesday morning. A few lightning flashes will also be possible along the coast of northern California. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The primary feature of interest today will be a progressive shortwave trough which will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains through 00Z. This feature will be near the Sabine Valley shortly after 12Z Wednesday. At the surface, a sprawling surface ridge will extend from the central/northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Southeast, preventing any substantial moisture return ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough. Given the cool air mass in place over land, little in the way of pressure falls are forecast, with only an "inverted trough" forecast along the TX Coast. Elsewhere, an upper trough amplify as it moves quickly onshore across northern CA. Strong cooling aloft as well as lift along a cold front may result in isolated low-topped convection late in the day. ...TX/LA... Scattered elevated convection is expected to develop over central TX after about 18Z, as cooling aloft occurs with the upper trough, and modest positive theta-e advection materializes during the late afternoon/evening. Elevated MUCAPE on the order of 250-500 J/kg is forecast over most of the area, with indications of SBCAPE over coastal counties of Deep South TX where 60s F dewpoints will exist on easterly flow. It appears that the bulk of the thunderstorm activity will remain north of the cold front, and any surface-based potential will be quite limited in time and space over far southern/coastal areas of TX. Given relatively poor low-level lapse rates forecast within that small moist sector, severe weather is not forecast. ..Jewell/Moore.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas during the day toward the Texas Coast and Sabine Valley through Wednesday morning. A few lightning flashes will also be possible along the coast of northern California. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The primary feature of interest today will be a progressive shortwave trough which will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains through 00Z. This feature will be near the Sabine Valley shortly after 12Z Wednesday. At the surface, a sprawling surface ridge will extend from the central/northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Southeast, preventing any substantial moisture return ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough. Given the cool air mass in place over land, little in the way of pressure falls are forecast, with only an "inverted trough" forecast along the TX Coast. Elsewhere, an upper trough amplify as it moves quickly onshore across northern CA. Strong cooling aloft as well as lift along a cold front may result in isolated low-topped convection late in the day. ...TX/LA... Scattered elevated convection is expected to develop over central TX after about 18Z, as cooling aloft occurs with the upper trough, and modest positive theta-e advection materializes during the late afternoon/evening. Elevated MUCAPE on the order of 250-500 J/kg is forecast over most of the area, with indications of SBCAPE over coastal counties of Deep South TX where 60s F dewpoints will exist on easterly flow. It appears that the bulk of the thunderstorm activity will remain north of the cold front, and any surface-based potential will be quite limited in time and space over far southern/coastal areas of TX. Given relatively poor low-level lapse rates forecast within that small moist sector, severe weather is not forecast. ..Jewell/Moore.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas during the day toward the Texas Coast and Sabine Valley through Wednesday morning. A few lightning flashes will also be possible along the coast of northern California. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The primary feature of interest today will be a progressive shortwave trough which will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains through 00Z. This feature will be near the Sabine Valley shortly after 12Z Wednesday. At the surface, a sprawling surface ridge will extend from the central/northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Southeast, preventing any substantial moisture return ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough. Given the cool air mass in place over land, little in the way of pressure falls are forecast, with only an "inverted trough" forecast along the TX Coast. Elsewhere, an upper trough amplify as it moves quickly onshore across northern CA. Strong cooling aloft as well as lift along a cold front may result in isolated low-topped convection late in the day. ...TX/LA... Scattered elevated convection is expected to develop over central TX after about 18Z, as cooling aloft occurs with the upper trough, and modest positive theta-e advection materializes during the late afternoon/evening. Elevated MUCAPE on the order of 250-500 J/kg is forecast over most of the area, with indications of SBCAPE over coastal counties of Deep South TX where 60s F dewpoints will exist on easterly flow. It appears that the bulk of the thunderstorm activity will remain north of the cold front, and any surface-based potential will be quite limited in time and space over far southern/coastal areas of TX. Given relatively poor low-level lapse rates forecast within that small moist sector, severe weather is not forecast. ..Jewell/Moore.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas during the day toward the Texas Coast and Sabine Valley through Wednesday morning. A few lightning flashes will also be possible along the coast of northern California. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The primary feature of interest today will be a progressive shortwave trough which will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains through 00Z. This feature will be near the Sabine Valley shortly after 12Z Wednesday. At the surface, a sprawling surface ridge will extend from the central/northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Southeast, preventing any substantial moisture return ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough. Given the cool air mass in place over land, little in the way of pressure falls are forecast, with only an "inverted trough" forecast along the TX Coast. Elsewhere, an upper trough amplify as it moves quickly onshore across northern CA. Strong cooling aloft as well as lift along a cold front may result in isolated low-topped convection late in the day. ...TX/LA... Scattered elevated convection is expected to develop over central TX after about 18Z, as cooling aloft occurs with the upper trough, and modest positive theta-e advection materializes during the late afternoon/evening. Elevated MUCAPE on the order of 250-500 J/kg is forecast over most of the area, with indications of SBCAPE over coastal counties of Deep South TX where 60s F dewpoints will exist on easterly flow. It appears that the bulk of the thunderstorm activity will remain north of the cold front, and any surface-based potential will be quite limited in time and space over far southern/coastal areas of TX. Given relatively poor low-level lapse rates forecast within that small moist sector, severe weather is not forecast. ..Jewell/Moore.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0619 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few weak thunderstorms will be possible from southeast Arizona into southwest New Mexico overnight. ...Discussion... Lift associated with a shortwave trough may result in a few weak thunderstorms tonight from southeast AZ into southwest NM, as midlevel moistening occurs. Forecast soundings depict steep midlevel lapse rates, but generally weak winds below 500 mb as the area will be well north of the midlevel jet. The lift and increasing midlevel RH will counteract the loss of diurnal heating, possibly leading to scattered showers and isolated lightning flashes. ..Jewell.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0619 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few weak thunderstorms will be possible from southeast Arizona into southwest New Mexico overnight. ...Discussion... Lift associated with a shortwave trough may result in a few weak thunderstorms tonight from southeast AZ into southwest NM, as midlevel moistening occurs. Forecast soundings depict steep midlevel lapse rates, but generally weak winds below 500 mb as the area will be well north of the midlevel jet. The lift and increasing midlevel RH will counteract the loss of diurnal heating, possibly leading to scattered showers and isolated lightning flashes. ..Jewell.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0619 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few weak thunderstorms will be possible from southeast Arizona into southwest New Mexico overnight. ...Discussion... Lift associated with a shortwave trough may result in a few weak thunderstorms tonight from southeast AZ into southwest NM, as midlevel moistening occurs. Forecast soundings depict steep midlevel lapse rates, but generally weak winds below 500 mb as the area will be well north of the midlevel jet. The lift and increasing midlevel RH will counteract the loss of diurnal heating, possibly leading to scattered showers and isolated lightning flashes. ..Jewell.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0619 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few weak thunderstorms will be possible from southeast Arizona into southwest New Mexico overnight. ...Discussion... Lift associated with a shortwave trough may result in a few weak thunderstorms tonight from southeast AZ into southwest NM, as midlevel moistening occurs. Forecast soundings depict steep midlevel lapse rates, but generally weak winds below 500 mb as the area will be well north of the midlevel jet. The lift and increasing midlevel RH will counteract the loss of diurnal heating, possibly leading to scattered showers and isolated lightning flashes. ..Jewell.. 01/02/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 1 22:24:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jan 1 22:24:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low through the extended period. Continued cool and wet conditions are expected across the western and eastern US, keeping fuels moist. A weak shortwave will move across the central US on D3 - Wednesday before a deeper trough ejects into the Plains late in the period by D4 Thursday - D5 Friday bringing an increase in surface winds but also potential for widespread precipitation across the central and southern Plains. A small corridor of Elevated fire weather conditions may be possible across South-Central Texas where less rainfall is forecast. An active pattern will continue, favoring southerly storm track and enhanced westerly flow through the end of the extended D6 - Saturday through D8 - Sunday. Fuels across the southern Plains will experience drying with potential for Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns to develop. Uncertainty in the status of fuels and potential for multiple rounds of precipitation leaves predictability too low to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 01/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low through the extended period. Continued cool and wet conditions are expected across the western and eastern US, keeping fuels moist. A weak shortwave will move across the central US on D3 - Wednesday before a deeper trough ejects into the Plains late in the period by D4 Thursday - D5 Friday bringing an increase in surface winds but also potential for widespread precipitation across the central and southern Plains. A small corridor of Elevated fire weather conditions may be possible across South-Central Texas where less rainfall is forecast. An active pattern will continue, favoring southerly storm track and enhanced westerly flow through the end of the extended D6 - Saturday through D8 - Sunday. Fuels across the southern Plains will experience drying with potential for Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns to develop. Uncertainty in the status of fuels and potential for multiple rounds of precipitation leaves predictability too low to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 01/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low through the extended period. Continued cool and wet conditions are expected across the western and eastern US, keeping fuels moist. A weak shortwave will move across the central US on D3 - Wednesday before a deeper trough ejects into the Plains late in the period by D4 Thursday - D5 Friday bringing an increase in surface winds but also potential for widespread precipitation across the central and southern Plains. A small corridor of Elevated fire weather conditions may be possible across South-Central Texas where less rainfall is forecast. An active pattern will continue, favoring southerly storm track and enhanced westerly flow through the end of the extended D6 - Saturday through D8 - Sunday. Fuels across the southern Plains will experience drying with potential for Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns to develop. Uncertainty in the status of fuels and potential for multiple rounds of precipitation leaves predictability too low to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 01/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low through the extended period. Continued cool and wet conditions are expected across the western and eastern US, keeping fuels moist. A weak shortwave will move across the central US on D3 - Wednesday before a deeper trough ejects into the Plains late in the period by D4 Thursday - D5 Friday bringing an increase in surface winds but also potential for widespread precipitation across the central and southern Plains. A small corridor of Elevated fire weather conditions may be possible across South-Central Texas where less rainfall is forecast. An active pattern will continue, favoring southerly storm track and enhanced westerly flow through the end of the extended D6 - Saturday through D8 - Sunday. Fuels across the southern Plains will experience drying with potential for Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns to develop. Uncertainty in the status of fuels and potential for multiple rounds of precipitation leaves predictability too low to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 01/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low through the extended period. Continued cool and wet conditions are expected across the western and eastern US, keeping fuels moist. A weak shortwave will move across the central US on D3 - Wednesday before a deeper trough ejects into the Plains late in the period by D4 Thursday - D5 Friday bringing an increase in surface winds but also potential for widespread precipitation across the central and southern Plains. A small corridor of Elevated fire weather conditions may be possible across South-Central Texas where less rainfall is forecast. An active pattern will continue, favoring southerly storm track and enhanced westerly flow through the end of the extended D6 - Saturday through D8 - Sunday. Fuels across the southern Plains will experience drying with potential for Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns to develop. Uncertainty in the status of fuels and potential for multiple rounds of precipitation leaves predictability too low to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 01/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United States through Tuesday morning. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move through the central U.S. today, as an upper-level low moves into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the upper low, a zone of strong large-scale ascent will move across southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico from this evening to tonight. Ahead of the system, a southeast-to-northwest corridor of steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place. This feature, combined with mid-level moisture associated with the upper-level system, will make conditions favorable for thunderstorms across far southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico tonight. No severe threat is expected. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental United States through 12Z on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from northern Baja to Chihuahua by the end of the period. Sufficiently steep lapse rates and gradual midlevel moistening within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms late tonight/early Tuesday from southeast AZ into southwest NM. Otherwise, the threat for isolated lightning flashes over the TX/LA coasts will end as convection along a surface cold front continues to shift slowly southeastward to the shelf waters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United States through Tuesday morning. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move through the central U.S. today, as an upper-level low moves into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the upper low, a zone of strong large-scale ascent will move across southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico from this evening to tonight. Ahead of the system, a southeast-to-northwest corridor of steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place. This feature, combined with mid-level moisture associated with the upper-level system, will make conditions favorable for thunderstorms across far southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico tonight. No severe threat is expected. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental United States through 12Z on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from northern Baja to Chihuahua by the end of the period. Sufficiently steep lapse rates and gradual midlevel moistening within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms late tonight/early Tuesday from southeast AZ into southwest NM. Otherwise, the threat for isolated lightning flashes over the TX/LA coasts will end as convection along a surface cold front continues to shift slowly southeastward to the shelf waters. Read more