Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Thursday across parts of the southern Plains and coastal Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front will move southward over the central/southern FL Peninsula on Thursday. But, with limited low-level convergence along this boundary, thunderstorm potential appears low over this area. In its wake, a large area of surface high pressure will dominate much of the central/eastern states through the period. A lack of appreciable low-level moisture should hinder thunderstorm develop for a large majority of the CONUS, with a couple of possible exceptions over the southern Plains and coastal TX. A pronounced upper trough/low with attendant strong large-scale ascent will eject over the southern Plains through the day. Even though surface temperatures will remain cool and low-level moisture quite limited, weak instability may still develop with modest daytime heating over parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated, low-topped thunderstorms may occur in this regime as mid-level temperatures rapidly cool with the approach of the upper trough. Other thunderstorms also appear possible late Thursday night into early Friday morning across a small portion of coastal TX as greater low-level moisture begins to return northward across this area. ..Gleason.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Thursday across parts of the southern Plains and coastal Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front will move southward over the central/southern FL Peninsula on Thursday. But, with limited low-level convergence along this boundary, thunderstorm potential appears low over this area. In its wake, a large area of surface high pressure will dominate much of the central/eastern states through the period. A lack of appreciable low-level moisture should hinder thunderstorm develop for a large majority of the CONUS, with a couple of possible exceptions over the southern Plains and coastal TX. A pronounced upper trough/low with attendant strong large-scale ascent will eject over the southern Plains through the day. Even though surface temperatures will remain cool and low-level moisture quite limited, weak instability may still develop with modest daytime heating over parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated, low-topped thunderstorms may occur in this regime as mid-level temperatures rapidly cool with the approach of the upper trough. Other thunderstorms also appear possible late Thursday night into early Friday morning across a small portion of coastal TX as greater low-level moisture begins to return northward across this area. ..Gleason.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Thursday across parts of the southern Plains and coastal Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front will move southward over the central/southern FL Peninsula on Thursday. But, with limited low-level convergence along this boundary, thunderstorm potential appears low over this area. In its wake, a large area of surface high pressure will dominate much of the central/eastern states through the period. A lack of appreciable low-level moisture should hinder thunderstorm develop for a large majority of the CONUS, with a couple of possible exceptions over the southern Plains and coastal TX. A pronounced upper trough/low with attendant strong large-scale ascent will eject over the southern Plains through the day. Even though surface temperatures will remain cool and low-level moisture quite limited, weak instability may still develop with modest daytime heating over parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated, low-topped thunderstorms may occur in this regime as mid-level temperatures rapidly cool with the approach of the upper trough. Other thunderstorms also appear possible late Thursday night into early Friday morning across a small portion of coastal TX as greater low-level moisture begins to return northward across this area. ..Gleason.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will remain limited for Wednesday. Modest cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next 24-48 hours as a mid-level wave (currently traversing the U.S./Mexico border as of early Tuesday morning) shifts east towards the Gulf. To the north, surface high pressure is forecast to build over the northern Plains. This surface regime will maintain northerly winds and cool temperatures across much of the central CONUS. Elsewhere, weak winds over the Midwest/Northeast and widespread precipitation chances across CA, UT, and the Pacific Northwest will limit fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will remain limited for Wednesday. Modest cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next 24-48 hours as a mid-level wave (currently traversing the U.S./Mexico border as of early Tuesday morning) shifts east towards the Gulf. To the north, surface high pressure is forecast to build over the northern Plains. This surface regime will maintain northerly winds and cool temperatures across much of the central CONUS. Elsewhere, weak winds over the Midwest/Northeast and widespread precipitation chances across CA, UT, and the Pacific Northwest will limit fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will remain limited for Wednesday. Modest cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next 24-48 hours as a mid-level wave (currently traversing the U.S./Mexico border as of early Tuesday morning) shifts east towards the Gulf. To the north, surface high pressure is forecast to build over the northern Plains. This surface regime will maintain northerly winds and cool temperatures across much of the central CONUS. Elsewhere, weak winds over the Midwest/Northeast and widespread precipitation chances across CA, UT, and the Pacific Northwest will limit fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will remain limited for Wednesday. Modest cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next 24-48 hours as a mid-level wave (currently traversing the U.S./Mexico border as of early Tuesday morning) shifts east towards the Gulf. To the north, surface high pressure is forecast to build over the northern Plains. This surface regime will maintain northerly winds and cool temperatures across much of the central CONUS. Elsewhere, weak winds over the Midwest/Northeast and widespread precipitation chances across CA, UT, and the Pacific Northwest will limit fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will remain limited for Wednesday. Modest cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next 24-48 hours as a mid-level wave (currently traversing the U.S./Mexico border as of early Tuesday morning) shifts east towards the Gulf. To the north, surface high pressure is forecast to build over the northern Plains. This surface regime will maintain northerly winds and cool temperatures across much of the central CONUS. Elsewhere, weak winds over the Midwest/Northeast and widespread precipitation chances across CA, UT, and the Pacific Northwest will limit fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will remain limited for Wednesday. Modest cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next 24-48 hours as a mid-level wave (currently traversing the U.S./Mexico border as of early Tuesday morning) shifts east towards the Gulf. To the north, surface high pressure is forecast to build over the northern Plains. This surface regime will maintain northerly winds and cool temperatures across much of the central CONUS. Elsewhere, weak winds over the Midwest/Northeast and widespread precipitation chances across CA, UT, and the Pacific Northwest will limit fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Cool conditions prevail in the wake of a recent cold frontal passage across the Plains and Southeast. Surface high pressure in place over the mid-MS River Valley will maintain generally light winds for today. The combination of cool conditions and weak winds over much of the country (as well as precipitation chances over the southern High Plains/TX where fuels have undergone some recent drying) will limit the potential for fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Cool conditions prevail in the wake of a recent cold frontal passage across the Plains and Southeast. Surface high pressure in place over the mid-MS River Valley will maintain generally light winds for today. The combination of cool conditions and weak winds over much of the country (as well as precipitation chances over the southern High Plains/TX where fuels have undergone some recent drying) will limit the potential for fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Cool conditions prevail in the wake of a recent cold frontal passage across the Plains and Southeast. Surface high pressure in place over the mid-MS River Valley will maintain generally light winds for today. The combination of cool conditions and weak winds over much of the country (as well as precipitation chances over the southern High Plains/TX where fuels have undergone some recent drying) will limit the potential for fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Cool conditions prevail in the wake of a recent cold frontal passage across the Plains and Southeast. Surface high pressure in place over the mid-MS River Valley will maintain generally light winds for today. The combination of cool conditions and weak winds over much of the country (as well as precipitation chances over the southern High Plains/TX where fuels have undergone some recent drying) will limit the potential for fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Cool conditions prevail in the wake of a recent cold frontal passage across the Plains and Southeast. Surface high pressure in place over the mid-MS River Valley will maintain generally light winds for today. The combination of cool conditions and weak winds over much of the country (as well as precipitation chances over the southern High Plains/TX where fuels have undergone some recent drying) will limit the potential for fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Cool conditions prevail in the wake of a recent cold frontal passage across the Plains and Southeast. Surface high pressure in place over the mid-MS River Valley will maintain generally light winds for today. The combination of cool conditions and weak winds over much of the country (as well as precipitation chances over the southern High Plains/TX where fuels have undergone some recent drying) will limit the potential for fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast and coastal California on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough with attendant 50-70 kt mid-level jet will move quickly eastward over the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday. An associated weak surface low is likewise forecast to develop eastward over the northern Gulf shelf waters, north FL, and western Atlantic through the period. Most global/regional guidance, with exception of the NAM, continues to indicate that rich low-level moisture will remain displaced offshore/south of the central Gulf Coast, and west of the FL Gulf Coast. While some chance for elevated thunderstorms may exist owing to weak MUCAPE inland, appreciable severe potential over land still appears low. Isolated convection also appears possible Wednesday morning and early afternoon across parts of coastal CA, as cold temperatures aloft and large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough move from the eastern Pacific over this area. Weak instability should keep overall lightning coverage rather sparse. ..Gleason.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast and coastal California on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough with attendant 50-70 kt mid-level jet will move quickly eastward over the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday. An associated weak surface low is likewise forecast to develop eastward over the northern Gulf shelf waters, north FL, and western Atlantic through the period. Most global/regional guidance, with exception of the NAM, continues to indicate that rich low-level moisture will remain displaced offshore/south of the central Gulf Coast, and west of the FL Gulf Coast. While some chance for elevated thunderstorms may exist owing to weak MUCAPE inland, appreciable severe potential over land still appears low. Isolated convection also appears possible Wednesday morning and early afternoon across parts of coastal CA, as cold temperatures aloft and large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough move from the eastern Pacific over this area. Weak instability should keep overall lightning coverage rather sparse. ..Gleason.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast and coastal California on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough with attendant 50-70 kt mid-level jet will move quickly eastward over the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday. An associated weak surface low is likewise forecast to develop eastward over the northern Gulf shelf waters, north FL, and western Atlantic through the period. Most global/regional guidance, with exception of the NAM, continues to indicate that rich low-level moisture will remain displaced offshore/south of the central Gulf Coast, and west of the FL Gulf Coast. While some chance for elevated thunderstorms may exist owing to weak MUCAPE inland, appreciable severe potential over land still appears low. Isolated convection also appears possible Wednesday morning and early afternoon across parts of coastal CA, as cold temperatures aloft and large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough move from the eastern Pacific over this area. Weak instability should keep overall lightning coverage rather sparse. ..Gleason.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast and coastal California on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough with attendant 50-70 kt mid-level jet will move quickly eastward over the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday. An associated weak surface low is likewise forecast to develop eastward over the northern Gulf shelf waters, north FL, and western Atlantic through the period. Most global/regional guidance, with exception of the NAM, continues to indicate that rich low-level moisture will remain displaced offshore/south of the central Gulf Coast, and west of the FL Gulf Coast. While some chance for elevated thunderstorms may exist owing to weak MUCAPE inland, appreciable severe potential over land still appears low. Isolated convection also appears possible Wednesday morning and early afternoon across parts of coastal CA, as cold temperatures aloft and large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough move from the eastern Pacific over this area. Weak instability should keep overall lightning coverage rather sparse. ..Gleason.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast and coastal California on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough with attendant 50-70 kt mid-level jet will move quickly eastward over the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday. An associated weak surface low is likewise forecast to develop eastward over the northern Gulf shelf waters, north FL, and western Atlantic through the period. Most global/regional guidance, with exception of the NAM, continues to indicate that rich low-level moisture will remain displaced offshore/south of the central Gulf Coast, and west of the FL Gulf Coast. While some chance for elevated thunderstorms may exist owing to weak MUCAPE inland, appreciable severe potential over land still appears low. Isolated convection also appears possible Wednesday morning and early afternoon across parts of coastal CA, as cold temperatures aloft and large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough move from the eastern Pacific over this area. Weak instability should keep overall lightning coverage rather sparse. ..Gleason.. 01/02/2024 Read more