Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper cyclone will encompass much of the central/eastern CONUS and Canada on Tuesday. Thunderstorm potential will remain limited to locations along/south of a front forecast to be in place over the FL Peninsula, where greater low-level moisture will reside. As the upper trough progresses eastward through the day, a weak surface reflection should develop from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico to the coastal western Atlantic. The cold front should also move southeastward across the FL Peninsula through the period. Strong (50-60 kt) mid-level west-southwesterly flow associated with the upper cyclone will be present over much of FL. Similar values of deep-layer shear would typically support organized severe thunderstorm potential. However, in this case forecast thermodynamic profiles across central/south FL will likely hinder updraft intensity, as poor mid-level lapse rates and warm temperatures aloft limit the degree of instability that can develop. In addition, enhanced low/mid-level flow will be largely parallel to the surface front, limiting low-level convergence/ascent. While there may be some potential for strong/gusty winds with any convection that develops and can remain south of the front, the undercutting nature of the boundary suggests that overall severe potential will probably remain too low/sparse for highlights. ..Gleason.. 01/15/2024 Read more

MD 0067 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR ARKLATEX INTO PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH/TN VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0067 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Areas affected...ArkLaTex into parts of the Mid South/TN Valley Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 151345Z - 151745Z SUMMARY...An uptick in winter precipitation rates is possible through the morning. Moderate snow will be possible along the northern part of the precipitation shield, with sleet and localized freezing rain to the south. DISCUSSION...Some increase in coverage and intensity of winter precipitation has been noted on radar over the last 1-2 hours near/east of the ArkLaTex region, likely in response to an approaching mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across the southern Plains. This area of precipitation will move east-northeastward toward the Mid South region, with downstream enhancement of precipitation possible later this morning toward the TN Valley region, within a persistent warm-advection regime. 12Z soundings from SHV and JAN depicted a notable warm layer from 900-750 mb, with LZK sounding also briefly rising above freezing around 750 mb. Dual pol data from KNQA indicate that the sleet/snow transition line runs roughly east-west, just to the south of the TN/MS border. There may be some tendency for the sleet/snow line to move slightly southward with time across northern MS, as ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave results in some midlevel cooling, while low-level warm advection gradually abates. However, some oscillations in precipitation type will continue to be possible near the transition zone. Where precipitation remains as or transitions to snow, moderate to briefly heavy precipitation rates may support localized rates near 1 inch/hour. Otherwise, occasionally moderate sleet will accompany the heavier precipitation, with freezing rain remaining possible along the southern fringe of the precipitation shield. ..Dean.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 33069147 33029201 33639227 34209210 34409144 35149013 35558857 34998818 34138835 33069147 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive arctic air mass and related cold surface temperatures will keep fire-weather concerns minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive arctic air mass and related cold surface temperatures will keep fire-weather concerns minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive arctic air mass and related cold surface temperatures will keep fire-weather concerns minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive arctic air mass and related cold surface temperatures will keep fire-weather concerns minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive arctic air mass and related cold surface temperatures will keep fire-weather concerns minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive arctic air mass and related cold surface temperatures will keep fire-weather concerns minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive arctic air mass and related cold surface temperatures will keep fire-weather concerns minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive arctic air mass and related cold surface temperatures will keep fire-weather concerns minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Central FL this afternoon... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the CONUS from the Rockies eastward, with ridging over the Pacific coast. One embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic, in advance of an upstream wave moving from the central High Plains/Rockies to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys. The majority of the CONUS will be relatively cold/dry, with the only buoyant warm sector confined to the FL peninsula (and just off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight). The ongoing convection between Fort Meyers and Sarasota could persist through the afternoon while spreading east-northeastward along the warm front. There will be sufficient vertical shear/hodograph length for a weakly rotating storm within the cluster, but poor midlevel lapse rates and modest low-level flow/shear suggest that severe storms are unlikely. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Central FL this afternoon... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the CONUS from the Rockies eastward, with ridging over the Pacific coast. One embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic, in advance of an upstream wave moving from the central High Plains/Rockies to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys. The majority of the CONUS will be relatively cold/dry, with the only buoyant warm sector confined to the FL peninsula (and just off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight). The ongoing convection between Fort Meyers and Sarasota could persist through the afternoon while spreading east-northeastward along the warm front. There will be sufficient vertical shear/hodograph length for a weakly rotating storm within the cluster, but poor midlevel lapse rates and modest low-level flow/shear suggest that severe storms are unlikely. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Central FL this afternoon... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the CONUS from the Rockies eastward, with ridging over the Pacific coast. One embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic, in advance of an upstream wave moving from the central High Plains/Rockies to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys. The majority of the CONUS will be relatively cold/dry, with the only buoyant warm sector confined to the FL peninsula (and just off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight). The ongoing convection between Fort Meyers and Sarasota could persist through the afternoon while spreading east-northeastward along the warm front. There will be sufficient vertical shear/hodograph length for a weakly rotating storm within the cluster, but poor midlevel lapse rates and modest low-level flow/shear suggest that severe storms are unlikely. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Central FL this afternoon... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the CONUS from the Rockies eastward, with ridging over the Pacific coast. One embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic, in advance of an upstream wave moving from the central High Plains/Rockies to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys. The majority of the CONUS will be relatively cold/dry, with the only buoyant warm sector confined to the FL peninsula (and just off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight). The ongoing convection between Fort Meyers and Sarasota could persist through the afternoon while spreading east-northeastward along the warm front. There will be sufficient vertical shear/hodograph length for a weakly rotating storm within the cluster, but poor midlevel lapse rates and modest low-level flow/shear suggest that severe storms are unlikely. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Central FL this afternoon... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the CONUS from the Rockies eastward, with ridging over the Pacific coast. One embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic, in advance of an upstream wave moving from the central High Plains/Rockies to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys. The majority of the CONUS will be relatively cold/dry, with the only buoyant warm sector confined to the FL peninsula (and just off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight). The ongoing convection between Fort Meyers and Sarasota could persist through the afternoon while spreading east-northeastward along the warm front. There will be sufficient vertical shear/hodograph length for a weakly rotating storm within the cluster, but poor midlevel lapse rates and modest low-level flow/shear suggest that severe storms are unlikely. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Central FL this afternoon... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the CONUS from the Rockies eastward, with ridging over the Pacific coast. One embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic, in advance of an upstream wave moving from the central High Plains/Rockies to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys. The majority of the CONUS will be relatively cold/dry, with the only buoyant warm sector confined to the FL peninsula (and just off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight). The ongoing convection between Fort Meyers and Sarasota could persist through the afternoon while spreading east-northeastward along the warm front. There will be sufficient vertical shear/hodograph length for a weakly rotating storm within the cluster, but poor midlevel lapse rates and modest low-level flow/shear suggest that severe storms are unlikely. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Central FL this afternoon... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the CONUS from the Rockies eastward, with ridging over the Pacific coast. One embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic, in advance of an upstream wave moving from the central High Plains/Rockies to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys. The majority of the CONUS will be relatively cold/dry, with the only buoyant warm sector confined to the FL peninsula (and just off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight). The ongoing convection between Fort Meyers and Sarasota could persist through the afternoon while spreading east-northeastward along the warm front. There will be sufficient vertical shear/hodograph length for a weakly rotating storm within the cluster, but poor midlevel lapse rates and modest low-level flow/shear suggest that severe storms are unlikely. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Central FL this afternoon... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the CONUS from the Rockies eastward, with ridging over the Pacific coast. One embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic, in advance of an upstream wave moving from the central High Plains/Rockies to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys. The majority of the CONUS will be relatively cold/dry, with the only buoyant warm sector confined to the FL peninsula (and just off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight). The ongoing convection between Fort Meyers and Sarasota could persist through the afternoon while spreading east-northeastward along the warm front. There will be sufficient vertical shear/hodograph length for a weakly rotating storm within the cluster, but poor midlevel lapse rates and modest low-level flow/shear suggest that severe storms are unlikely. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, broadly cyclonic flow will continue to cover most of the CONUS, anchored by a large cyclone over the southern Hudson Bay region. A series of shortwaves will pass through this flow -- predominantly across the central/northern Plains, mid/upper Mississippi Valley, and Upper Great Lakes. Farther south, a broad fetch of west-southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the Gulf and FL, with an embedded, weak shortwave trough initially evident in moisture-channel imagery over the west-central Gulf. This perturbation is expected to cross the FL Peninsula around 00Z. Meanwhile, a warm front -- analyzed at 11Z from near Cape Canaveral across coastal south FL then west-northwestward to a frontal-wave low over the northwestern Gulf -- will shift/redevelop northward up the peninsula through midday, stalling across central FL this afternoon. Though near-surface flow will be modest on both sides of the front, enough lift should occur in the frontal zone, with diurnal heating on the warm side and weak midlevel lift preceding the Gulf shortwave trough, to support scattered showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms today into this evening. Rich warm-sector moisture -- with surface dewpoints commonly upper 60s to low 70s F -- will offset modest midlevel lapse rates enough for around 1000- 1500 J/kg MLCAPE south of the front. Elevated MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg is possible within about 50-75 nm north of the boundary. Weak low-level flow (in the absence of stronger large-scale forcing) will keep hodographs rather small, but amidst effective-shear vectors commonly in the 35-45-kt range. As such, one or two of the cells in the precip area may exhibit supercell characteristics briefly. However, weakness of both lapse rates and low-level shear preclude enough severe potential for an unconditional outlook at this time. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, broadly cyclonic flow will continue to cover most of the CONUS, anchored by a large cyclone over the southern Hudson Bay region. A series of shortwaves will pass through this flow -- predominantly across the central/northern Plains, mid/upper Mississippi Valley, and Upper Great Lakes. Farther south, a broad fetch of west-southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the Gulf and FL, with an embedded, weak shortwave trough initially evident in moisture-channel imagery over the west-central Gulf. This perturbation is expected to cross the FL Peninsula around 00Z. Meanwhile, a warm front -- analyzed at 11Z from near Cape Canaveral across coastal south FL then west-northwestward to a frontal-wave low over the northwestern Gulf -- will shift/redevelop northward up the peninsula through midday, stalling across central FL this afternoon. Though near-surface flow will be modest on both sides of the front, enough lift should occur in the frontal zone, with diurnal heating on the warm side and weak midlevel lift preceding the Gulf shortwave trough, to support scattered showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms today into this evening. Rich warm-sector moisture -- with surface dewpoints commonly upper 60s to low 70s F -- will offset modest midlevel lapse rates enough for around 1000- 1500 J/kg MLCAPE south of the front. Elevated MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg is possible within about 50-75 nm north of the boundary. Weak low-level flow (in the absence of stronger large-scale forcing) will keep hodographs rather small, but amidst effective-shear vectors commonly in the 35-45-kt range. As such, one or two of the cells in the precip area may exhibit supercell characteristics briefly. However, weakness of both lapse rates and low-level shear preclude enough severe potential for an unconditional outlook at this time. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/15/2024 Read more