Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... The beginning of the period will see an upper trough over the eastern states and an upper ridge over the West. The upper ridge will weaken as it slides east over the Plains on Day 5/Sat, with a lower-amplitude pattern emerging east of the Rockies through Day 6/Sun. During the latter half of the period, an upper trough is forecast to develop over the western U.S. Strong surface high pressure over the Plains on Day 4/Fri will shift east through the period, and another frontal intrusion into the Gulf of Mexico will result in a generally dry/stable airmass for much of the Day 4-8 period. As the western upper trough develops late in the period, surface lee troughing will promote southerly low-level flow over the southern Plains and some Gulf moisture return is expected. As this occurs, thunderstorm potential may increase across parts of the southern Plains around Days 7-8/Mon-Tue. Modest deep-layer flow over the region, and the upper trough remaining well west, will likely limit severe potential until perhaps just beyond Day 8/Tue. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough over the southern Plains vicinity will shift east toward the Carolinas on Thursday. This will result in deep-layer southwesterly flow across the central/eastern Gulf Coast vicinity. At the surface, a weak low over OK/TX will track east across the Gulf coast states, before lifting northeast across the Carolinas by Friday morning. Meanwhile, cold front attendant to the low will spread southeast across the Southeastern U.S. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low will allow for modest Gulf moisture to return northward, with near 60 F dewpoints moving into southern LA/MS/AL and across FL (some higher dewpoints expected central/southern FL). Overall, better thermodynamics will remain over the Gulf, with warm midlevel temperatures and poor lapse rates limiting instability inland. Nevertheless, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the FL Peninsula in a warm advection regime ahead of the approaching cold front. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough over the southern Plains vicinity will shift east toward the Carolinas on Thursday. This will result in deep-layer southwesterly flow across the central/eastern Gulf Coast vicinity. At the surface, a weak low over OK/TX will track east across the Gulf coast states, before lifting northeast across the Carolinas by Friday morning. Meanwhile, cold front attendant to the low will spread southeast across the Southeastern U.S. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low will allow for modest Gulf moisture to return northward, with near 60 F dewpoints moving into southern LA/MS/AL and across FL (some higher dewpoints expected central/southern FL). Overall, better thermodynamics will remain over the Gulf, with warm midlevel temperatures and poor lapse rates limiting instability inland. Nevertheless, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the FL Peninsula in a warm advection regime ahead of the approaching cold front. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough over the southern Plains vicinity will shift east toward the Carolinas on Thursday. This will result in deep-layer southwesterly flow across the central/eastern Gulf Coast vicinity. At the surface, a weak low over OK/TX will track east across the Gulf coast states, before lifting northeast across the Carolinas by Friday morning. Meanwhile, cold front attendant to the low will spread southeast across the Southeastern U.S. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low will allow for modest Gulf moisture to return northward, with near 60 F dewpoints moving into southern LA/MS/AL and across FL (some higher dewpoints expected central/southern FL). Overall, better thermodynamics will remain over the Gulf, with warm midlevel temperatures and poor lapse rates limiting instability inland. Nevertheless, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the FL Peninsula in a warm advection regime ahead of the approaching cold front. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough over the southern Plains vicinity will shift east toward the Carolinas on Thursday. This will result in deep-layer southwesterly flow across the central/eastern Gulf Coast vicinity. At the surface, a weak low over OK/TX will track east across the Gulf coast states, before lifting northeast across the Carolinas by Friday morning. Meanwhile, cold front attendant to the low will spread southeast across the Southeastern U.S. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low will allow for modest Gulf moisture to return northward, with near 60 F dewpoints moving into southern LA/MS/AL and across FL (some higher dewpoints expected central/southern FL). Overall, better thermodynamics will remain over the Gulf, with warm midlevel temperatures and poor lapse rates limiting instability inland. Nevertheless, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the FL Peninsula in a warm advection regime ahead of the approaching cold front. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough over the southern Plains vicinity will shift east toward the Carolinas on Thursday. This will result in deep-layer southwesterly flow across the central/eastern Gulf Coast vicinity. At the surface, a weak low over OK/TX will track east across the Gulf coast states, before lifting northeast across the Carolinas by Friday morning. Meanwhile, cold front attendant to the low will spread southeast across the Southeastern U.S. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low will allow for modest Gulf moisture to return northward, with near 60 F dewpoints moving into southern LA/MS/AL and across FL (some higher dewpoints expected central/southern FL). Overall, better thermodynamics will remain over the Gulf, with warm midlevel temperatures and poor lapse rates limiting instability inland. Nevertheless, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the FL Peninsula in a warm advection regime ahead of the approaching cold front. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough over the southern Plains vicinity will shift east toward the Carolinas on Thursday. This will result in deep-layer southwesterly flow across the central/eastern Gulf Coast vicinity. At the surface, a weak low over OK/TX will track east across the Gulf coast states, before lifting northeast across the Carolinas by Friday morning. Meanwhile, cold front attendant to the low will spread southeast across the Southeastern U.S. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low will allow for modest Gulf moisture to return northward, with near 60 F dewpoints moving into southern LA/MS/AL and across FL (some higher dewpoints expected central/southern FL). Overall, better thermodynamics will remain over the Gulf, with warm midlevel temperatures and poor lapse rates limiting instability inland. Nevertheless, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the FL Peninsula in a warm advection regime ahead of the approaching cold front. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough over the southern Plains vicinity will shift east toward the Carolinas on Thursday. This will result in deep-layer southwesterly flow across the central/eastern Gulf Coast vicinity. At the surface, a weak low over OK/TX will track east across the Gulf coast states, before lifting northeast across the Carolinas by Friday morning. Meanwhile, cold front attendant to the low will spread southeast across the Southeastern U.S. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low will allow for modest Gulf moisture to return northward, with near 60 F dewpoints moving into southern LA/MS/AL and across FL (some higher dewpoints expected central/southern FL). Overall, better thermodynamics will remain over the Gulf, with warm midlevel temperatures and poor lapse rates limiting instability inland. Nevertheless, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the FL Peninsula in a warm advection regime ahead of the approaching cold front. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will shift east over the Atlantic while an upper shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest develops southeast to the central Plains. At the surface, high pressure will migrate across the Southeast. As the upper shortwave trough approaches the central Rockies, lee low development is forecast. This low will move east near the Red River (OK/TX) through early Thursday. As the lee low develops and shifts east during the period, southerly low-level flow should increase across the Gulf and parts of TX/LA. Near-60 F dewpoints may approach the immediate TX/LA coast late in the period, but quality boundary-layer moisture will remain offshore. As such, thunderstorms are not expected with a dry and stable airmass being maintained across the CONUS east of the Rockies. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will shift east over the Atlantic while an upper shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest develops southeast to the central Plains. At the surface, high pressure will migrate across the Southeast. As the upper shortwave trough approaches the central Rockies, lee low development is forecast. This low will move east near the Red River (OK/TX) through early Thursday. As the lee low develops and shifts east during the period, southerly low-level flow should increase across the Gulf and parts of TX/LA. Near-60 F dewpoints may approach the immediate TX/LA coast late in the period, but quality boundary-layer moisture will remain offshore. As such, thunderstorms are not expected with a dry and stable airmass being maintained across the CONUS east of the Rockies. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will shift east over the Atlantic while an upper shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest develops southeast to the central Plains. At the surface, high pressure will migrate across the Southeast. As the upper shortwave trough approaches the central Rockies, lee low development is forecast. This low will move east near the Red River (OK/TX) through early Thursday. As the lee low develops and shifts east during the period, southerly low-level flow should increase across the Gulf and parts of TX/LA. Near-60 F dewpoints may approach the immediate TX/LA coast late in the period, but quality boundary-layer moisture will remain offshore. As such, thunderstorms are not expected with a dry and stable airmass being maintained across the CONUS east of the Rockies. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will shift east over the Atlantic while an upper shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest develops southeast to the central Plains. At the surface, high pressure will migrate across the Southeast. As the upper shortwave trough approaches the central Rockies, lee low development is forecast. This low will move east near the Red River (OK/TX) through early Thursday. As the lee low develops and shifts east during the period, southerly low-level flow should increase across the Gulf and parts of TX/LA. Near-60 F dewpoints may approach the immediate TX/LA coast late in the period, but quality boundary-layer moisture will remain offshore. As such, thunderstorms are not expected with a dry and stable airmass being maintained across the CONUS east of the Rockies. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will shift east over the Atlantic while an upper shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest develops southeast to the central Plains. At the surface, high pressure will migrate across the Southeast. As the upper shortwave trough approaches the central Rockies, lee low development is forecast. This low will move east near the Red River (OK/TX) through early Thursday. As the lee low develops and shifts east during the period, southerly low-level flow should increase across the Gulf and parts of TX/LA. Near-60 F dewpoints may approach the immediate TX/LA coast late in the period, but quality boundary-layer moisture will remain offshore. As such, thunderstorms are not expected with a dry and stable airmass being maintained across the CONUS east of the Rockies. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will shift east over the Atlantic while an upper shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest develops southeast to the central Plains. At the surface, high pressure will migrate across the Southeast. As the upper shortwave trough approaches the central Rockies, lee low development is forecast. This low will move east near the Red River (OK/TX) through early Thursday. As the lee low develops and shifts east during the period, southerly low-level flow should increase across the Gulf and parts of TX/LA. Near-60 F dewpoints may approach the immediate TX/LA coast late in the period, but quality boundary-layer moisture will remain offshore. As such, thunderstorms are not expected with a dry and stable airmass being maintained across the CONUS east of the Rockies. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An embedded midlevel impulse accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft will cross the central Rockies during the day, promoting lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. Through the afternoon, the lee cyclone should evolve southward into the southern High Plains, where warmer surface temperatures and reduced static stability will be in place. In response, breezy surface winds are expected along/south of the lee cyclone over the southern High Plains, where downslope warming/drying will contribute to modest RH reductions. The combination of 15-20 mph west-southwesterly surface winds and 15-25 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions; however, marginal fuels and the localized nature of the threat preclude Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 01/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An embedded midlevel impulse accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft will cross the central Rockies during the day, promoting lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. Through the afternoon, the lee cyclone should evolve southward into the southern High Plains, where warmer surface temperatures and reduced static stability will be in place. In response, breezy surface winds are expected along/south of the lee cyclone over the southern High Plains, where downslope warming/drying will contribute to modest RH reductions. The combination of 15-20 mph west-southwesterly surface winds and 15-25 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions; however, marginal fuels and the localized nature of the threat preclude Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 01/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An embedded midlevel impulse accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft will cross the central Rockies during the day, promoting lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. Through the afternoon, the lee cyclone should evolve southward into the southern High Plains, where warmer surface temperatures and reduced static stability will be in place. In response, breezy surface winds are expected along/south of the lee cyclone over the southern High Plains, where downslope warming/drying will contribute to modest RH reductions. The combination of 15-20 mph west-southwesterly surface winds and 15-25 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions; however, marginal fuels and the localized nature of the threat preclude Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 01/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An embedded midlevel impulse accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft will cross the central Rockies during the day, promoting lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. Through the afternoon, the lee cyclone should evolve southward into the southern High Plains, where warmer surface temperatures and reduced static stability will be in place. In response, breezy surface winds are expected along/south of the lee cyclone over the southern High Plains, where downslope warming/drying will contribute to modest RH reductions. The combination of 15-20 mph west-southwesterly surface winds and 15-25 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions; however, marginal fuels and the localized nature of the threat preclude Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 01/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An embedded midlevel impulse accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft will cross the central Rockies during the day, promoting lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. Through the afternoon, the lee cyclone should evolve southward into the southern High Plains, where warmer surface temperatures and reduced static stability will be in place. In response, breezy surface winds are expected along/south of the lee cyclone over the southern High Plains, where downslope warming/drying will contribute to modest RH reductions. The combination of 15-20 mph west-southwesterly surface winds and 15-25 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions; however, marginal fuels and the localized nature of the threat preclude Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 01/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An embedded midlevel impulse accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft will cross the central Rockies during the day, promoting lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. Through the afternoon, the lee cyclone should evolve southward into the southern High Plains, where warmer surface temperatures and reduced static stability will be in place. In response, breezy surface winds are expected along/south of the lee cyclone over the southern High Plains, where downslope warming/drying will contribute to modest RH reductions. The combination of 15-20 mph west-southwesterly surface winds and 15-25 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions; however, marginal fuels and the localized nature of the threat preclude Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 01/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more