Severe Storms

MD 0064 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR UPSTATE NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0064 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Areas affected...Upstate New York Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 142049Z - 150045Z SUMMARY...The onset of heavy snowfall rates up to (and possibly exceeding) two inches per hour is anticipated in the next few hours for the northeast shore of Lake Ontario. A heavy lake-effect snow band emanating off Lake Erie should continue into the early evening. DISCUSSION...Regional radar trends over the past hour have shown the development of a more persistent lake-effect snow band in the Watertown, NY vicinity. Additionally, low-level confluence over Lake Ontario may be increasing based on trends in the shallow convective streaks in GOES visible imagery. High-res model guidance has hinted in the development of a more persistent lake-effect band beginning during the 21-00 UTC period over the past several model runs. The aforementioned observed trends lend confidence to this forecast and suggest the onset may be closer to the 21-23 UTC period. Upstream, lake-effect bands coming off of Lake Erie have resulted in snowfall rates up to 2 in/hour. Given similar thermodynamic profiles aloft and warmer water temperatures (6 C vs. 4 C), similar, if not higher, snowfall rates are expected. To the southwest, a persistent lake-effect band to the south of Buffalo, NY is expected to persist into the evening hours. As mentioned, snowfall rates up to 2 in/hour have been observed, and strong low-level confluence over Lake Erie is noted in recent surface observations. Guidance hints at a gradual weakening of this band after the 00 UTC time frame. ..Moore.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 43837636 44047626 44267527 44277493 44157463 44057453 43777450 43587463 43497483 43557597 43627624 43737632 43837636 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 14 20:46:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will amplify while progressing from the central Plains to the Atlantic Coast through most of this week, before an upper-level ridge develops over the central U.S. by the weekend. This upper pattern will reinforce multiple rounds of surface high pressure and an accompanying arctic airmass across much of the central and eastern U.S. through the week, limiting wildfire-spread potential. Brief surface cyclone development in advance of an approaching mid-level trough across the southern High Plains may support dry and breezy downslope flow on Wednesday. However, fuels are anticipated to be too poorly receptive to fire spread to warrant the introduction of Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will amplify while progressing from the central Plains to the Atlantic Coast through most of this week, before an upper-level ridge develops over the central U.S. by the weekend. This upper pattern will reinforce multiple rounds of surface high pressure and an accompanying arctic airmass across much of the central and eastern U.S. through the week, limiting wildfire-spread potential. Brief surface cyclone development in advance of an approaching mid-level trough across the southern High Plains may support dry and breezy downslope flow on Wednesday. However, fuels are anticipated to be too poorly receptive to fire spread to warrant the introduction of Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will amplify while progressing from the central Plains to the Atlantic Coast through most of this week, before an upper-level ridge develops over the central U.S. by the weekend. This upper pattern will reinforce multiple rounds of surface high pressure and an accompanying arctic airmass across much of the central and eastern U.S. through the week, limiting wildfire-spread potential. Brief surface cyclone development in advance of an approaching mid-level trough across the southern High Plains may support dry and breezy downslope flow on Wednesday. However, fuels are anticipated to be too poorly receptive to fire spread to warrant the introduction of Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will amplify while progressing from the central Plains to the Atlantic Coast through most of this week, before an upper-level ridge develops over the central U.S. by the weekend. This upper pattern will reinforce multiple rounds of surface high pressure and an accompanying arctic airmass across much of the central and eastern U.S. through the week, limiting wildfire-spread potential. Brief surface cyclone development in advance of an approaching mid-level trough across the southern High Plains may support dry and breezy downslope flow on Wednesday. However, fuels are anticipated to be too poorly receptive to fire spread to warrant the introduction of Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will amplify while progressing from the central Plains to the Atlantic Coast through most of this week, before an upper-level ridge develops over the central U.S. by the weekend. This upper pattern will reinforce multiple rounds of surface high pressure and an accompanying arctic airmass across much of the central and eastern U.S. through the week, limiting wildfire-spread potential. Brief surface cyclone development in advance of an approaching mid-level trough across the southern High Plains may support dry and breezy downslope flow on Wednesday. However, fuels are anticipated to be too poorly receptive to fire spread to warrant the introduction of Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will amplify while progressing from the central Plains to the Atlantic Coast through most of this week, before an upper-level ridge develops over the central U.S. by the weekend. This upper pattern will reinforce multiple rounds of surface high pressure and an accompanying arctic airmass across much of the central and eastern U.S. through the week, limiting wildfire-spread potential. Brief surface cyclone development in advance of an approaching mid-level trough across the southern High Plains may support dry and breezy downslope flow on Wednesday. However, fuels are anticipated to be too poorly receptive to fire spread to warrant the introduction of Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will amplify while progressing from the central Plains to the Atlantic Coast through most of this week, before an upper-level ridge develops over the central U.S. by the weekend. This upper pattern will reinforce multiple rounds of surface high pressure and an accompanying arctic airmass across much of the central and eastern U.S. through the week, limiting wildfire-spread potential. Brief surface cyclone development in advance of an approaching mid-level trough across the southern High Plains may support dry and breezy downslope flow on Wednesday. However, fuels are anticipated to be too poorly receptive to fire spread to warrant the introduction of Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will amplify while progressing from the central Plains to the Atlantic Coast through most of this week, before an upper-level ridge develops over the central U.S. by the weekend. This upper pattern will reinforce multiple rounds of surface high pressure and an accompanying arctic airmass across much of the central and eastern U.S. through the week, limiting wildfire-spread potential. Brief surface cyclone development in advance of an approaching mid-level trough across the southern High Plains may support dry and breezy downslope flow on Wednesday. However, fuels are anticipated to be too poorly receptive to fire spread to warrant the introduction of Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will amplify while progressing from the central Plains to the Atlantic Coast through most of this week, before an upper-level ridge develops over the central U.S. by the weekend. This upper pattern will reinforce multiple rounds of surface high pressure and an accompanying arctic airmass across much of the central and eastern U.S. through the week, limiting wildfire-spread potential. Brief surface cyclone development in advance of an approaching mid-level trough across the southern High Plains may support dry and breezy downslope flow on Wednesday. However, fuels are anticipated to be too poorly receptive to fire spread to warrant the introduction of Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will amplify while progressing from the central Plains to the Atlantic Coast through most of this week, before an upper-level ridge develops over the central U.S. by the weekend. This upper pattern will reinforce multiple rounds of surface high pressure and an accompanying arctic airmass across much of the central and eastern U.S. through the week, limiting wildfire-spread potential. Brief surface cyclone development in advance of an approaching mid-level trough across the southern High Plains may support dry and breezy downslope flow on Wednesday. However, fuels are anticipated to be too poorly receptive to fire spread to warrant the introduction of Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0063 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK INTO THE NEW ENGLAND REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 0063 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Areas affected...Southeast New York into the New England region Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 141649Z - 142045Z SUMMARY...Thermodynamic conditions will remain favorable for snow squalls as a cold front pushes east into the New England region. DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar depicts broken bands of shallow convection along an eastward moving cold front from upstate NY into eastern PA. Visibility reductions between 1/4 to 1 mile have been observed with the passage of these bands and are primarily being driven by bursts of moderate to heavy snow with 25-35 mph wind gusts. The 12 UTC PIT sounding likely sampled the convective environment most accurately with nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from the surface to ~750 mb, which appears to be represented well by recent 0-3 km lapse rate analyses. The plume of 8+ C/km low-level lapse rates is forecast to spread to the northeast into the New England region through the day in tandem with the cooler mid-level temperatures associated with the primary trough axis. Low-level instability should be bolstered by modest diurnal heating between cloud breaks through the afternoon, and a weak influx of moisture may support occasional lightning flashes, though sustained, lightning-producing convection is not necessarily anticipated. Nonetheless, the combination of improving low-level thermodynamics, focused ascent along the front, and 30-40 mph winds within the boundary layer should maintain the snow squall potential well into the afternoon. ..Moore.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... LAT...LON 40817558 41267567 42257496 44237351 44587283 44747124 44797089 44607048 44146998 43776984 43257045 42577077 41467167 41237225 41187286 40497484 40817558 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible today over parts of south Florida and New England. ...20Z Update... Adjustments have been made to both general thunderstorm areas to account for latest observational trends. Isolated lighting flashes and strong/gusty winds will remain possible this afternoon with snow squalls/shallow convection moving quickly east-northeastward across parts of New England. See Mesoscale Discussion 63 for more details. ..Gleason.. 01/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses continue to show the east/northeastward progression of a strong upper wave over the upper OH River Valley/New England with an attendant - but slowly occluding - surface cyclone over eastern Canada. A trailing cold front is noted in surface observations from upstate NY to the southwest along the southern Appalachians into the lower MS Valley and TX Gulf Coast region. This boundary will continue migrating east/southeast through the day as an arctic air mass overspreads much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. The frigid air will negate convective potential for most regions today with the exception of south Florida and parts of New England. ...South Florida... A residual frontal boundary from a previous cool air intrusion into the Gulf is noted in visible imagery across south FL with occasional convection/lightning flashes noted over the past few hours. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but sufficient elevated buoyancy is in place above the shallow frontal layer to continue to support isolated thunderstorms through today/tonight as lift ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads the region. ...New England... Shallow convection is noted along/behind the cold front across portions of PA and NY this morning. While this activity is currently too cool and shallow to support lightning production, a combination of diurnal warming, a weak influx of moisture from the Mid-Atlantic coast, and cool mid-level temperatures may provide adequate buoyancy for a few lightning flashes later this afternoon across southeast NY into the New England region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible today over parts of south Florida and New England. ...20Z Update... Adjustments have been made to both general thunderstorm areas to account for latest observational trends. Isolated lighting flashes and strong/gusty winds will remain possible this afternoon with snow squalls/shallow convection moving quickly east-northeastward across parts of New England. See Mesoscale Discussion 63 for more details. ..Gleason.. 01/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses continue to show the east/northeastward progression of a strong upper wave over the upper OH River Valley/New England with an attendant - but slowly occluding - surface cyclone over eastern Canada. A trailing cold front is noted in surface observations from upstate NY to the southwest along the southern Appalachians into the lower MS Valley and TX Gulf Coast region. This boundary will continue migrating east/southeast through the day as an arctic air mass overspreads much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. The frigid air will negate convective potential for most regions today with the exception of south Florida and parts of New England. ...South Florida... A residual frontal boundary from a previous cool air intrusion into the Gulf is noted in visible imagery across south FL with occasional convection/lightning flashes noted over the past few hours. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but sufficient elevated buoyancy is in place above the shallow frontal layer to continue to support isolated thunderstorms through today/tonight as lift ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads the region. ...New England... Shallow convection is noted along/behind the cold front across portions of PA and NY this morning. While this activity is currently too cool and shallow to support lightning production, a combination of diurnal warming, a weak influx of moisture from the Mid-Atlantic coast, and cool mid-level temperatures may provide adequate buoyancy for a few lightning flashes later this afternoon across southeast NY into the New England region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible today over parts of south Florida and New England. ...20Z Update... Adjustments have been made to both general thunderstorm areas to account for latest observational trends. Isolated lighting flashes and strong/gusty winds will remain possible this afternoon with snow squalls/shallow convection moving quickly east-northeastward across parts of New England. See Mesoscale Discussion 63 for more details. ..Gleason.. 01/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses continue to show the east/northeastward progression of a strong upper wave over the upper OH River Valley/New England with an attendant - but slowly occluding - surface cyclone over eastern Canada. A trailing cold front is noted in surface observations from upstate NY to the southwest along the southern Appalachians into the lower MS Valley and TX Gulf Coast region. This boundary will continue migrating east/southeast through the day as an arctic air mass overspreads much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. The frigid air will negate convective potential for most regions today with the exception of south Florida and parts of New England. ...South Florida... A residual frontal boundary from a previous cool air intrusion into the Gulf is noted in visible imagery across south FL with occasional convection/lightning flashes noted over the past few hours. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but sufficient elevated buoyancy is in place above the shallow frontal layer to continue to support isolated thunderstorms through today/tonight as lift ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads the region. ...New England... Shallow convection is noted along/behind the cold front across portions of PA and NY this morning. While this activity is currently too cool and shallow to support lightning production, a combination of diurnal warming, a weak influx of moisture from the Mid-Atlantic coast, and cool mid-level temperatures may provide adequate buoyancy for a few lightning flashes later this afternoon across southeast NY into the New England region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible today over parts of south Florida and New England. ...20Z Update... Adjustments have been made to both general thunderstorm areas to account for latest observational trends. Isolated lighting flashes and strong/gusty winds will remain possible this afternoon with snow squalls/shallow convection moving quickly east-northeastward across parts of New England. See Mesoscale Discussion 63 for more details. ..Gleason.. 01/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses continue to show the east/northeastward progression of a strong upper wave over the upper OH River Valley/New England with an attendant - but slowly occluding - surface cyclone over eastern Canada. A trailing cold front is noted in surface observations from upstate NY to the southwest along the southern Appalachians into the lower MS Valley and TX Gulf Coast region. This boundary will continue migrating east/southeast through the day as an arctic air mass overspreads much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. The frigid air will negate convective potential for most regions today with the exception of south Florida and parts of New England. ...South Florida... A residual frontal boundary from a previous cool air intrusion into the Gulf is noted in visible imagery across south FL with occasional convection/lightning flashes noted over the past few hours. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but sufficient elevated buoyancy is in place above the shallow frontal layer to continue to support isolated thunderstorms through today/tonight as lift ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads the region. ...New England... Shallow convection is noted along/behind the cold front across portions of PA and NY this morning. While this activity is currently too cool and shallow to support lightning production, a combination of diurnal warming, a weak influx of moisture from the Mid-Atlantic coast, and cool mid-level temperatures may provide adequate buoyancy for a few lightning flashes later this afternoon across southeast NY into the New England region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible today over parts of south Florida and New England. ...20Z Update... Adjustments have been made to both general thunderstorm areas to account for latest observational trends. Isolated lighting flashes and strong/gusty winds will remain possible this afternoon with snow squalls/shallow convection moving quickly east-northeastward across parts of New England. See Mesoscale Discussion 63 for more details. ..Gleason.. 01/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses continue to show the east/northeastward progression of a strong upper wave over the upper OH River Valley/New England with an attendant - but slowly occluding - surface cyclone over eastern Canada. A trailing cold front is noted in surface observations from upstate NY to the southwest along the southern Appalachians into the lower MS Valley and TX Gulf Coast region. This boundary will continue migrating east/southeast through the day as an arctic air mass overspreads much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. The frigid air will negate convective potential for most regions today with the exception of south Florida and parts of New England. ...South Florida... A residual frontal boundary from a previous cool air intrusion into the Gulf is noted in visible imagery across south FL with occasional convection/lightning flashes noted over the past few hours. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but sufficient elevated buoyancy is in place above the shallow frontal layer to continue to support isolated thunderstorms through today/tonight as lift ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads the region. ...New England... Shallow convection is noted along/behind the cold front across portions of PA and NY this morning. While this activity is currently too cool and shallow to support lightning production, a combination of diurnal warming, a weak influx of moisture from the Mid-Atlantic coast, and cool mid-level temperatures may provide adequate buoyancy for a few lightning flashes later this afternoon across southeast NY into the New England region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible today over parts of south Florida and New England. ...20Z Update... Adjustments have been made to both general thunderstorm areas to account for latest observational trends. Isolated lighting flashes and strong/gusty winds will remain possible this afternoon with snow squalls/shallow convection moving quickly east-northeastward across parts of New England. See Mesoscale Discussion 63 for more details. ..Gleason.. 01/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses continue to show the east/northeastward progression of a strong upper wave over the upper OH River Valley/New England with an attendant - but slowly occluding - surface cyclone over eastern Canada. A trailing cold front is noted in surface observations from upstate NY to the southwest along the southern Appalachians into the lower MS Valley and TX Gulf Coast region. This boundary will continue migrating east/southeast through the day as an arctic air mass overspreads much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. The frigid air will negate convective potential for most regions today with the exception of south Florida and parts of New England. ...South Florida... A residual frontal boundary from a previous cool air intrusion into the Gulf is noted in visible imagery across south FL with occasional convection/lightning flashes noted over the past few hours. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but sufficient elevated buoyancy is in place above the shallow frontal layer to continue to support isolated thunderstorms through today/tonight as lift ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads the region. ...New England... Shallow convection is noted along/behind the cold front across portions of PA and NY this morning. While this activity is currently too cool and shallow to support lightning production, a combination of diurnal warming, a weak influx of moisture from the Mid-Atlantic coast, and cool mid-level temperatures may provide adequate buoyancy for a few lightning flashes later this afternoon across southeast NY into the New England region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible today over parts of south Florida and New England. ...20Z Update... Adjustments have been made to both general thunderstorm areas to account for latest observational trends. Isolated lighting flashes and strong/gusty winds will remain possible this afternoon with snow squalls/shallow convection moving quickly east-northeastward across parts of New England. See Mesoscale Discussion 63 for more details. ..Gleason.. 01/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses continue to show the east/northeastward progression of a strong upper wave over the upper OH River Valley/New England with an attendant - but slowly occluding - surface cyclone over eastern Canada. A trailing cold front is noted in surface observations from upstate NY to the southwest along the southern Appalachians into the lower MS Valley and TX Gulf Coast region. This boundary will continue migrating east/southeast through the day as an arctic air mass overspreads much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. The frigid air will negate convective potential for most regions today with the exception of south Florida and parts of New England. ...South Florida... A residual frontal boundary from a previous cool air intrusion into the Gulf is noted in visible imagery across south FL with occasional convection/lightning flashes noted over the past few hours. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but sufficient elevated buoyancy is in place above the shallow frontal layer to continue to support isolated thunderstorms through today/tonight as lift ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads the region. ...New England... Shallow convection is noted along/behind the cold front across portions of PA and NY this morning. While this activity is currently too cool and shallow to support lightning production, a combination of diurnal warming, a weak influx of moisture from the Mid-Atlantic coast, and cool mid-level temperatures may provide adequate buoyancy for a few lightning flashes later this afternoon across southeast NY into the New England region. Read more