Severe Storms

MD 0078 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR WASHINGTON...NORTHEAST OREGON...NORTHERN IDAHO...AND WESTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0078 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Areas affected...Washington...northeast Oregon...northern Idaho...and western Montana Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 171949Z - 172345Z SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall rates between 1-2 inches per hour are probable - especially at higher elevations - through the afternoon and early evening. DISCUSSION...Surface observations over the past hour have reported an uptick in snowfall intensity across portions of OR and northern ID. This comes as a swath of precipitation becomes more widespread ahead of a compact, progressive upper disturbance moving into the Pacific Northwest. Lift will likely be focused/maximized along a mid-level baroclinic zone between 850-700 mb, which should overlap to some degree with a DGZ between 700-600 mb (based on recent forecast soundings). The combination of more focused ascent within a portion of the DGZ should support moderate to heavy snowfall rates up to 1 inch/hour. More localized orographic ascent will likely enhance snowfall rates within the higher elevations, and could support snowfall rates up to (and possibly exceeding) 2 inches/hour. A minimum in snowfall rates is anticipated across central WA where orographic ascent contribution will be considerably smaller. ..Moore.. 01/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...SEW...PQR... LAT...LON 43741612 44651774 44931811 45281833 45861883 46051943 46172017 46232081 46132148 46802166 47772154 48162145 48712115 48912075 48981908 48941667 48921651 48961360 48821298 47921283 44061289 43751324 43471384 43451480 43481542 43741612 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Upper ridging will build into the central CONUS through the weekend, with a stationary upper trough moving in and settling over the southern Plains through the middle of next week. Initially, surface high pressure and colder air beneath the upper ridge will remain in place across the central and eastern United Stated into early next week. Thereafter, the anticipated persistent mid-level troughing in the southern Plains will encourage low-level moisture return for multiple days across the south-central into the southeastern U.S. Through the extended forecast period, the combination of cool or moist surface conditions and poorly receptive fuels will limit wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 01/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Upper ridging will build into the central CONUS through the weekend, with a stationary upper trough moving in and settling over the southern Plains through the middle of next week. Initially, surface high pressure and colder air beneath the upper ridge will remain in place across the central and eastern United Stated into early next week. Thereafter, the anticipated persistent mid-level troughing in the southern Plains will encourage low-level moisture return for multiple days across the south-central into the southeastern U.S. Through the extended forecast period, the combination of cool or moist surface conditions and poorly receptive fuels will limit wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 01/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Upper ridging will build into the central CONUS through the weekend, with a stationary upper trough moving in and settling over the southern Plains through the middle of next week. Initially, surface high pressure and colder air beneath the upper ridge will remain in place across the central and eastern United Stated into early next week. Thereafter, the anticipated persistent mid-level troughing in the southern Plains will encourage low-level moisture return for multiple days across the south-central into the southeastern U.S. Through the extended forecast period, the combination of cool or moist surface conditions and poorly receptive fuels will limit wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 01/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Upper ridging will build into the central CONUS through the weekend, with a stationary upper trough moving in and settling over the southern Plains through the middle of next week. Initially, surface high pressure and colder air beneath the upper ridge will remain in place across the central and eastern United Stated into early next week. Thereafter, the anticipated persistent mid-level troughing in the southern Plains will encourage low-level moisture return for multiple days across the south-central into the southeastern U.S. Through the extended forecast period, the combination of cool or moist surface conditions and poorly receptive fuels will limit wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 01/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Upper ridging will build into the central CONUS through the weekend, with a stationary upper trough moving in and settling over the southern Plains through the middle of next week. Initially, surface high pressure and colder air beneath the upper ridge will remain in place across the central and eastern United Stated into early next week. Thereafter, the anticipated persistent mid-level troughing in the southern Plains will encourage low-level moisture return for multiple days across the south-central into the southeastern U.S. Through the extended forecast period, the combination of cool or moist surface conditions and poorly receptive fuels will limit wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 01/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Upper ridging will build into the central CONUS through the weekend, with a stationary upper trough moving in and settling over the southern Plains through the middle of next week. Initially, surface high pressure and colder air beneath the upper ridge will remain in place across the central and eastern United Stated into early next week. Thereafter, the anticipated persistent mid-level troughing in the southern Plains will encourage low-level moisture return for multiple days across the south-central into the southeastern U.S. Through the extended forecast period, the combination of cool or moist surface conditions and poorly receptive fuels will limit wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 01/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. Thunderstorms remain unlikely across the CONUS today, with cool and/or stable air over land. Sporadic weak convection may produce a few lightning flashes from the FL Straits into the Bahamas, aided by warm water temperature beneath a midlevel moist plume. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... The majority of the CONUS is dominated by a continental polar air mass, with the associated front now into the Bahamas/Cuba/northern Yucatan. Substantial low-level moisture and buoyancy are likely to remain to the south of FL, and little to no buoyancy is expected with the shortwave trough over the Great Basin/central Rockies. Thus, thunderstorms are not expected through Thursday morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. Thunderstorms remain unlikely across the CONUS today, with cool and/or stable air over land. Sporadic weak convection may produce a few lightning flashes from the FL Straits into the Bahamas, aided by warm water temperature beneath a midlevel moist plume. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... The majority of the CONUS is dominated by a continental polar air mass, with the associated front now into the Bahamas/Cuba/northern Yucatan. Substantial low-level moisture and buoyancy are likely to remain to the south of FL, and little to no buoyancy is expected with the shortwave trough over the Great Basin/central Rockies. Thus, thunderstorms are not expected through Thursday morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. Thunderstorms remain unlikely across the CONUS today, with cool and/or stable air over land. Sporadic weak convection may produce a few lightning flashes from the FL Straits into the Bahamas, aided by warm water temperature beneath a midlevel moist plume. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... The majority of the CONUS is dominated by a continental polar air mass, with the associated front now into the Bahamas/Cuba/northern Yucatan. Substantial low-level moisture and buoyancy are likely to remain to the south of FL, and little to no buoyancy is expected with the shortwave trough over the Great Basin/central Rockies. Thus, thunderstorms are not expected through Thursday morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. Thunderstorms remain unlikely across the CONUS today, with cool and/or stable air over land. Sporadic weak convection may produce a few lightning flashes from the FL Straits into the Bahamas, aided by warm water temperature beneath a midlevel moist plume. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... The majority of the CONUS is dominated by a continental polar air mass, with the associated front now into the Bahamas/Cuba/northern Yucatan. Substantial low-level moisture and buoyancy are likely to remain to the south of FL, and little to no buoyancy is expected with the shortwave trough over the Great Basin/central Rockies. Thus, thunderstorms are not expected through Thursday morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. Thunderstorms remain unlikely across the CONUS today, with cool and/or stable air over land. Sporadic weak convection may produce a few lightning flashes from the FL Straits into the Bahamas, aided by warm water temperature beneath a midlevel moist plume. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... The majority of the CONUS is dominated by a continental polar air mass, with the associated front now into the Bahamas/Cuba/northern Yucatan. Substantial low-level moisture and buoyancy are likely to remain to the south of FL, and little to no buoyancy is expected with the shortwave trough over the Great Basin/central Rockies. Thus, thunderstorms are not expected through Thursday morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. Thunderstorms remain unlikely across the CONUS today, with cool and/or stable air over land. Sporadic weak convection may produce a few lightning flashes from the FL Straits into the Bahamas, aided by warm water temperature beneath a midlevel moist plume. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... The majority of the CONUS is dominated by a continental polar air mass, with the associated front now into the Bahamas/Cuba/northern Yucatan. Substantial low-level moisture and buoyancy are likely to remain to the south of FL, and little to no buoyancy is expected with the shortwave trough over the Great Basin/central Rockies. Thus, thunderstorms are not expected through Thursday morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. Thunderstorms remain unlikely across the CONUS today, with cool and/or stable air over land. Sporadic weak convection may produce a few lightning flashes from the FL Straits into the Bahamas, aided by warm water temperature beneath a midlevel moist plume. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... The majority of the CONUS is dominated by a continental polar air mass, with the associated front now into the Bahamas/Cuba/northern Yucatan. Substantial low-level moisture and buoyancy are likely to remain to the south of FL, and little to no buoyancy is expected with the shortwave trough over the Great Basin/central Rockies. Thus, thunderstorms are not expected through Thursday morning. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains unchanged. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will persist across the central/southern Rockies on D2/Thursday, favoring lee troughing over the adjacent High Plains. Along/south of the lee trough, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield two corridors of strong/gusty surface winds. The northern corridor will extend from east-central NM into the western portion of the TX South Plains, though RH reductions will be marginal here (i.e., 20-25 percent). Farther south, a second belt of sustained westerly surface winds near 20 mph (with higher gusts) is expected across the TX Trans-Pecos region. Here, warmer surface temperatures will support 15-20 percent RH, and with slightly more receptive fuels, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. With that said, the overall threat appears too localized for Elevated highlights given modestly receptive fuels at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains unchanged. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will persist across the central/southern Rockies on D2/Thursday, favoring lee troughing over the adjacent High Plains. Along/south of the lee trough, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield two corridors of strong/gusty surface winds. The northern corridor will extend from east-central NM into the western portion of the TX South Plains, though RH reductions will be marginal here (i.e., 20-25 percent). Farther south, a second belt of sustained westerly surface winds near 20 mph (with higher gusts) is expected across the TX Trans-Pecos region. Here, warmer surface temperatures will support 15-20 percent RH, and with slightly more receptive fuels, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. With that said, the overall threat appears too localized for Elevated highlights given modestly receptive fuels at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains unchanged. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will persist across the central/southern Rockies on D2/Thursday, favoring lee troughing over the adjacent High Plains. Along/south of the lee trough, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield two corridors of strong/gusty surface winds. The northern corridor will extend from east-central NM into the western portion of the TX South Plains, though RH reductions will be marginal here (i.e., 20-25 percent). Farther south, a second belt of sustained westerly surface winds near 20 mph (with higher gusts) is expected across the TX Trans-Pecos region. Here, warmer surface temperatures will support 15-20 percent RH, and with slightly more receptive fuels, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. With that said, the overall threat appears too localized for Elevated highlights given modestly receptive fuels at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains unchanged. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will persist across the central/southern Rockies on D2/Thursday, favoring lee troughing over the adjacent High Plains. Along/south of the lee trough, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield two corridors of strong/gusty surface winds. The northern corridor will extend from east-central NM into the western portion of the TX South Plains, though RH reductions will be marginal here (i.e., 20-25 percent). Farther south, a second belt of sustained westerly surface winds near 20 mph (with higher gusts) is expected across the TX Trans-Pecos region. Here, warmer surface temperatures will support 15-20 percent RH, and with slightly more receptive fuels, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. With that said, the overall threat appears too localized for Elevated highlights given modestly receptive fuels at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains unchanged. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will persist across the central/southern Rockies on D2/Thursday, favoring lee troughing over the adjacent High Plains. Along/south of the lee trough, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield two corridors of strong/gusty surface winds. The northern corridor will extend from east-central NM into the western portion of the TX South Plains, though RH reductions will be marginal here (i.e., 20-25 percent). Farther south, a second belt of sustained westerly surface winds near 20 mph (with higher gusts) is expected across the TX Trans-Pecos region. Here, warmer surface temperatures will support 15-20 percent RH, and with slightly more receptive fuels, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. With that said, the overall threat appears too localized for Elevated highlights given modestly receptive fuels at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains unchanged. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will persist across the central/southern Rockies on D2/Thursday, favoring lee troughing over the adjacent High Plains. Along/south of the lee trough, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield two corridors of strong/gusty surface winds. The northern corridor will extend from east-central NM into the western portion of the TX South Plains, though RH reductions will be marginal here (i.e., 20-25 percent). Farther south, a second belt of sustained westerly surface winds near 20 mph (with higher gusts) is expected across the TX Trans-Pecos region. Here, warmer surface temperatures will support 15-20 percent RH, and with slightly more receptive fuels, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. With that said, the overall threat appears too localized for Elevated highlights given modestly receptive fuels at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more