Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A broad cyclonic flow regime aloft will persist over much of the CONUS on Thursday, primarily from the Rockies eastward. An upper ridge along the West Coast will gradually shift east toward the Great Basin by Friday morning. An embedded shortwave trough is forecast to dive southeastward out of MT and into the northern/central Plains during the day, with a deepening upper low over the Great Lakes. South of these systems, high pressure will maintain stable conditions over most of the Southeast, with only weak moisture return through Friday morning over FL and southern GA. Meanwhile, another strong cold front will surge south across the Plains in association with the MT wave. Although very weak instability is indicated over parts of FL, lack of lift suggests little thunderstorm activity will occur except perhaps over a small portion of far southern FL during peak heating. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A broad cyclonic flow regime aloft will persist over much of the CONUS on Thursday, primarily from the Rockies eastward. An upper ridge along the West Coast will gradually shift east toward the Great Basin by Friday morning. An embedded shortwave trough is forecast to dive southeastward out of MT and into the northern/central Plains during the day, with a deepening upper low over the Great Lakes. South of these systems, high pressure will maintain stable conditions over most of the Southeast, with only weak moisture return through Friday morning over FL and southern GA. Meanwhile, another strong cold front will surge south across the Plains in association with the MT wave. Although very weak instability is indicated over parts of FL, lack of lift suggests little thunderstorm activity will occur except perhaps over a small portion of far southern FL during peak heating. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A broad cyclonic flow regime aloft will persist over much of the CONUS on Thursday, primarily from the Rockies eastward. An upper ridge along the West Coast will gradually shift east toward the Great Basin by Friday morning. An embedded shortwave trough is forecast to dive southeastward out of MT and into the northern/central Plains during the day, with a deepening upper low over the Great Lakes. South of these systems, high pressure will maintain stable conditions over most of the Southeast, with only weak moisture return through Friday morning over FL and southern GA. Meanwhile, another strong cold front will surge south across the Plains in association with the MT wave. Although very weak instability is indicated over parts of FL, lack of lift suggests little thunderstorm activity will occur except perhaps over a small portion of far southern FL during peak heating. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A broad cyclonic flow regime aloft will persist over much of the CONUS on Thursday, primarily from the Rockies eastward. An upper ridge along the West Coast will gradually shift east toward the Great Basin by Friday morning. An embedded shortwave trough is forecast to dive southeastward out of MT and into the northern/central Plains during the day, with a deepening upper low over the Great Lakes. South of these systems, high pressure will maintain stable conditions over most of the Southeast, with only weak moisture return through Friday morning over FL and southern GA. Meanwhile, another strong cold front will surge south across the Plains in association with the MT wave. Although very weak instability is indicated over parts of FL, lack of lift suggests little thunderstorm activity will occur except perhaps over a small portion of far southern FL during peak heating. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A broad cyclonic flow regime aloft will persist over much of the CONUS on Thursday, primarily from the Rockies eastward. An upper ridge along the West Coast will gradually shift east toward the Great Basin by Friday morning. An embedded shortwave trough is forecast to dive southeastward out of MT and into the northern/central Plains during the day, with a deepening upper low over the Great Lakes. South of these systems, high pressure will maintain stable conditions over most of the Southeast, with only weak moisture return through Friday morning over FL and southern GA. Meanwhile, another strong cold front will surge south across the Plains in association with the MT wave. Although very weak instability is indicated over parts of FL, lack of lift suggests little thunderstorm activity will occur except perhaps over a small portion of far southern FL during peak heating. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A broad cyclonic flow regime aloft will persist over much of the CONUS on Thursday, primarily from the Rockies eastward. An upper ridge along the West Coast will gradually shift east toward the Great Basin by Friday morning. An embedded shortwave trough is forecast to dive southeastward out of MT and into the northern/central Plains during the day, with a deepening upper low over the Great Lakes. South of these systems, high pressure will maintain stable conditions over most of the Southeast, with only weak moisture return through Friday morning over FL and southern GA. Meanwhile, another strong cold front will surge south across the Plains in association with the MT wave. Although very weak instability is indicated over parts of FL, lack of lift suggests little thunderstorm activity will occur except perhaps over a small portion of far southern FL during peak heating. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... The majority of the CONUS is dominated by a continental polar air mass, with the associated front now into the Bahamas/Cuba/northern Yucatan. Substantial low-level moisture and buoyancy are likely to remain to the south of FL, and little to no buoyancy is expected with the shortwave trough over the Great Basin/central Rockies. Thus, thunderstorms are not expected through Thursday morning. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... The majority of the CONUS is dominated by a continental polar air mass, with the associated front now into the Bahamas/Cuba/northern Yucatan. Substantial low-level moisture and buoyancy are likely to remain to the south of FL, and little to no buoyancy is expected with the shortwave trough over the Great Basin/central Rockies. Thus, thunderstorms are not expected through Thursday morning. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... The majority of the CONUS is dominated by a continental polar air mass, with the associated front now into the Bahamas/Cuba/northern Yucatan. Substantial low-level moisture and buoyancy are likely to remain to the south of FL, and little to no buoyancy is expected with the shortwave trough over the Great Basin/central Rockies. Thus, thunderstorms are not expected through Thursday morning. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... The majority of the CONUS is dominated by a continental polar air mass, with the associated front now into the Bahamas/Cuba/northern Yucatan. Substantial low-level moisture and buoyancy are likely to remain to the south of FL, and little to no buoyancy is expected with the shortwave trough over the Great Basin/central Rockies. Thus, thunderstorms are not expected through Thursday morning. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... The majority of the CONUS is dominated by a continental polar air mass, with the associated front now into the Bahamas/Cuba/northern Yucatan. Substantial low-level moisture and buoyancy are likely to remain to the south of FL, and little to no buoyancy is expected with the shortwave trough over the Great Basin/central Rockies. Thus, thunderstorms are not expected through Thursday morning. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will impinge on the central Rockies during the day, promoting a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains. Along and south of this feature, 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across much of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Here, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to 15-25 percent minimum RH, though RH reductions should be marginal where the strongest surface winds are expected (i.e., east-central NM into the western TX Panhandle and in the immediate lee of the high terrain in eastern NM). While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across the region, the limited wind/RH overlap and marginal fuels preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will impinge on the central Rockies during the day, promoting a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains. Along and south of this feature, 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across much of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Here, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to 15-25 percent minimum RH, though RH reductions should be marginal where the strongest surface winds are expected (i.e., east-central NM into the western TX Panhandle and in the immediate lee of the high terrain in eastern NM). While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across the region, the limited wind/RH overlap and marginal fuels preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will impinge on the central Rockies during the day, promoting a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains. Along and south of this feature, 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across much of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Here, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to 15-25 percent minimum RH, though RH reductions should be marginal where the strongest surface winds are expected (i.e., east-central NM into the western TX Panhandle and in the immediate lee of the high terrain in eastern NM). While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across the region, the limited wind/RH overlap and marginal fuels preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will impinge on the central Rockies during the day, promoting a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains. Along and south of this feature, 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across much of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Here, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to 15-25 percent minimum RH, though RH reductions should be marginal where the strongest surface winds are expected (i.e., east-central NM into the western TX Panhandle and in the immediate lee of the high terrain in eastern NM). While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across the region, the limited wind/RH overlap and marginal fuels preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will impinge on the central Rockies during the day, promoting a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains. Along and south of this feature, 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across much of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Here, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to 15-25 percent minimum RH, though RH reductions should be marginal where the strongest surface winds are expected (i.e., east-central NM into the western TX Panhandle and in the immediate lee of the high terrain in eastern NM). While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across the region, the limited wind/RH overlap and marginal fuels preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, broadly cyclonic mean flow will be maintained over most of the CONUS, downstream from a synoptic ridge that will move over the Pacific Coast around the end of the period. A cyclone that moved ashore during the prior overnight period has devolved to an open shortwave trough over OR. This feature should deamplify gradually as it rapidly crosses the northern Great Basin to central Rockies today, reaching MO and OK by 12Z tomorrow. Though a flash or two cannot be ruled out as the associated midlevel cooling/ moisture cross the Intermountain West today, lightning potential appears too isolated, brief and unfocused to warrant an outlook area. Otherwise, troughing over the East will deamplify somewhat today as a strong shortwave exits the East Coast. A related/preceding surface cold front -- initially analyzed from the northern Bahamas across the eastern/southern Straits of FL -- will decelerate, weaken, and remain south of FL through the period. Lightning potential over land appears minimal at best, and too low for a 10% areal outline. Elsewhere, the air mass will be too dry and/or stable for thunder over the CONUS. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, broadly cyclonic mean flow will be maintained over most of the CONUS, downstream from a synoptic ridge that will move over the Pacific Coast around the end of the period. A cyclone that moved ashore during the prior overnight period has devolved to an open shortwave trough over OR. This feature should deamplify gradually as it rapidly crosses the northern Great Basin to central Rockies today, reaching MO and OK by 12Z tomorrow. Though a flash or two cannot be ruled out as the associated midlevel cooling/ moisture cross the Intermountain West today, lightning potential appears too isolated, brief and unfocused to warrant an outlook area. Otherwise, troughing over the East will deamplify somewhat today as a strong shortwave exits the East Coast. A related/preceding surface cold front -- initially analyzed from the northern Bahamas across the eastern/southern Straits of FL -- will decelerate, weaken, and remain south of FL through the period. Lightning potential over land appears minimal at best, and too low for a 10% areal outline. Elsewhere, the air mass will be too dry and/or stable for thunder over the CONUS. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, broadly cyclonic mean flow will be maintained over most of the CONUS, downstream from a synoptic ridge that will move over the Pacific Coast around the end of the period. A cyclone that moved ashore during the prior overnight period has devolved to an open shortwave trough over OR. This feature should deamplify gradually as it rapidly crosses the northern Great Basin to central Rockies today, reaching MO and OK by 12Z tomorrow. Though a flash or two cannot be ruled out as the associated midlevel cooling/ moisture cross the Intermountain West today, lightning potential appears too isolated, brief and unfocused to warrant an outlook area. Otherwise, troughing over the East will deamplify somewhat today as a strong shortwave exits the East Coast. A related/preceding surface cold front -- initially analyzed from the northern Bahamas across the eastern/southern Straits of FL -- will decelerate, weaken, and remain south of FL through the period. Lightning potential over land appears minimal at best, and too low for a 10% areal outline. Elsewhere, the air mass will be too dry and/or stable for thunder over the CONUS. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, broadly cyclonic mean flow will be maintained over most of the CONUS, downstream from a synoptic ridge that will move over the Pacific Coast around the end of the period. A cyclone that moved ashore during the prior overnight period has devolved to an open shortwave trough over OR. This feature should deamplify gradually as it rapidly crosses the northern Great Basin to central Rockies today, reaching MO and OK by 12Z tomorrow. Though a flash or two cannot be ruled out as the associated midlevel cooling/ moisture cross the Intermountain West today, lightning potential appears too isolated, brief and unfocused to warrant an outlook area. Otherwise, troughing over the East will deamplify somewhat today as a strong shortwave exits the East Coast. A related/preceding surface cold front -- initially analyzed from the northern Bahamas across the eastern/southern Straits of FL -- will decelerate, weaken, and remain south of FL through the period. Lightning potential over land appears minimal at best, and too low for a 10% areal outline. Elsewhere, the air mass will be too dry and/or stable for thunder over the CONUS. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/17/2024 Read more