Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure will build today across the northern Rockies as an upper-level low brings rain and snow chances across the Pacific Northwest. Across the central/eastern US, a cool post-frontal air mass will be in place under building surface high pressure. Given the cool and moist conditions, fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS today. ..Thornton.. 01/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure will build today across the northern Rockies as an upper-level low brings rain and snow chances across the Pacific Northwest. Across the central/eastern US, a cool post-frontal air mass will be in place under building surface high pressure. Given the cool and moist conditions, fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS today. ..Thornton.. 01/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure will build today across the northern Rockies as an upper-level low brings rain and snow chances across the Pacific Northwest. Across the central/eastern US, a cool post-frontal air mass will be in place under building surface high pressure. Given the cool and moist conditions, fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS today. ..Thornton.. 01/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure will build today across the northern Rockies as an upper-level low brings rain and snow chances across the Pacific Northwest. Across the central/eastern US, a cool post-frontal air mass will be in place under building surface high pressure. Given the cool and moist conditions, fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS today. ..Thornton.. 01/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure will build today across the northern Rockies as an upper-level low brings rain and snow chances across the Pacific Northwest. Across the central/eastern US, a cool post-frontal air mass will be in place under building surface high pressure. Given the cool and moist conditions, fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS today. ..Thornton.. 01/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may be noted across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...South Florida... Dominant upper trough, currently located over the Great Lakes/OH Valley, will gradually shift east as strongest 500mb flow rounds the base of the trough and off the middle Atlantic Coast during the latter half of the period. This evolution will encourage westerly flow to deepen across the FL Peninsula and a pronounced surface front will surge across the southern Peninsula during the evening. Weak buoyancy currently resides across the warm sector over the southern Peninsula. Forecast soundings suggest some risk for deep updrafts, although lapse rates will remain weak. Isolated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the primary cold front during the afternoon but this activity should remain too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for severe. ...California... Surface front is expected to surge toward the central/northern CA Coast after 20/00z ahead of a midlevel trough that should approach the Coast by 12z. Pronounced warm advection and weak elevated buoyancy will likely prove sufficient for pre frontal convection. Most of this activity is expected within the warm conveyor (likely rooted near/above 1km AGL) during the latter half of the period. Forecast soundings suggest the strongest updrafts may attain levels necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may be noted across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...South Florida... Dominant upper trough, currently located over the Great Lakes/OH Valley, will gradually shift east as strongest 500mb flow rounds the base of the trough and off the middle Atlantic Coast during the latter half of the period. This evolution will encourage westerly flow to deepen across the FL Peninsula and a pronounced surface front will surge across the southern Peninsula during the evening. Weak buoyancy currently resides across the warm sector over the southern Peninsula. Forecast soundings suggest some risk for deep updrafts, although lapse rates will remain weak. Isolated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the primary cold front during the afternoon but this activity should remain too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for severe. ...California... Surface front is expected to surge toward the central/northern CA Coast after 20/00z ahead of a midlevel trough that should approach the Coast by 12z. Pronounced warm advection and weak elevated buoyancy will likely prove sufficient for pre frontal convection. Most of this activity is expected within the warm conveyor (likely rooted near/above 1km AGL) during the latter half of the period. Forecast soundings suggest the strongest updrafts may attain levels necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may be noted across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...South Florida... Dominant upper trough, currently located over the Great Lakes/OH Valley, will gradually shift east as strongest 500mb flow rounds the base of the trough and off the middle Atlantic Coast during the latter half of the period. This evolution will encourage westerly flow to deepen across the FL Peninsula and a pronounced surface front will surge across the southern Peninsula during the evening. Weak buoyancy currently resides across the warm sector over the southern Peninsula. Forecast soundings suggest some risk for deep updrafts, although lapse rates will remain weak. Isolated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the primary cold front during the afternoon but this activity should remain too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for severe. ...California... Surface front is expected to surge toward the central/northern CA Coast after 20/00z ahead of a midlevel trough that should approach the Coast by 12z. Pronounced warm advection and weak elevated buoyancy will likely prove sufficient for pre frontal convection. Most of this activity is expected within the warm conveyor (likely rooted near/above 1km AGL) during the latter half of the period. Forecast soundings suggest the strongest updrafts may attain levels necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may be noted across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...South Florida... Dominant upper trough, currently located over the Great Lakes/OH Valley, will gradually shift east as strongest 500mb flow rounds the base of the trough and off the middle Atlantic Coast during the latter half of the period. This evolution will encourage westerly flow to deepen across the FL Peninsula and a pronounced surface front will surge across the southern Peninsula during the evening. Weak buoyancy currently resides across the warm sector over the southern Peninsula. Forecast soundings suggest some risk for deep updrafts, although lapse rates will remain weak. Isolated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the primary cold front during the afternoon but this activity should remain too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for severe. ...California... Surface front is expected to surge toward the central/northern CA Coast after 20/00z ahead of a midlevel trough that should approach the Coast by 12z. Pronounced warm advection and weak elevated buoyancy will likely prove sufficient for pre frontal convection. Most of this activity is expected within the warm conveyor (likely rooted near/above 1km AGL) during the latter half of the period. Forecast soundings suggest the strongest updrafts may attain levels necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may be noted across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...South Florida... Dominant upper trough, currently located over the Great Lakes/OH Valley, will gradually shift east as strongest 500mb flow rounds the base of the trough and off the middle Atlantic Coast during the latter half of the period. This evolution will encourage westerly flow to deepen across the FL Peninsula and a pronounced surface front will surge across the southern Peninsula during the evening. Weak buoyancy currently resides across the warm sector over the southern Peninsula. Forecast soundings suggest some risk for deep updrafts, although lapse rates will remain weak. Isolated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the primary cold front during the afternoon but this activity should remain too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for severe. ...California... Surface front is expected to surge toward the central/northern CA Coast after 20/00z ahead of a midlevel trough that should approach the Coast by 12z. Pronounced warm advection and weak elevated buoyancy will likely prove sufficient for pre frontal convection. Most of this activity is expected within the warm conveyor (likely rooted near/above 1km AGL) during the latter half of the period. Forecast soundings suggest the strongest updrafts may attain levels necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may develop across parts of south Florida this evening. ...South FL... Weak surface boundary is currently draped across south FL and appears to be partly responsible for weak convection that is noted across eastern Collier/western Broward/southern Palm Beach County region. 00z sounding from MFL exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 800 J/kg which is likely adequate for updrafts potentially attaining heights necessary for lightning discharge. However, lightning is not currently noted with these showers and the deepest updrafts (with lightning) are roughly 275 mi east of the southern Peninsula. Will maintain 10% probability for lightning with this activity given the weak boundary-layer convergence and modest thermodynamic profile observed at MFL. ..Darrow.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may develop across parts of south Florida this evening. ...South FL... Weak surface boundary is currently draped across south FL and appears to be partly responsible for weak convection that is noted across eastern Collier/western Broward/southern Palm Beach County region. 00z sounding from MFL exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 800 J/kg which is likely adequate for updrafts potentially attaining heights necessary for lightning discharge. However, lightning is not currently noted with these showers and the deepest updrafts (with lightning) are roughly 275 mi east of the southern Peninsula. Will maintain 10% probability for lightning with this activity given the weak boundary-layer convergence and modest thermodynamic profile observed at MFL. ..Darrow.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may develop across parts of south Florida this evening. ...South FL... Weak surface boundary is currently draped across south FL and appears to be partly responsible for weak convection that is noted across eastern Collier/western Broward/southern Palm Beach County region. 00z sounding from MFL exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 800 J/kg which is likely adequate for updrafts potentially attaining heights necessary for lightning discharge. However, lightning is not currently noted with these showers and the deepest updrafts (with lightning) are roughly 275 mi east of the southern Peninsula. Will maintain 10% probability for lightning with this activity given the weak boundary-layer convergence and modest thermodynamic profile observed at MFL. ..Darrow.. 01/19/2024 Read more

MD 0079 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0079 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0444 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Areas affected...Southeastern Nebraska and Northeastern Kansas Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 182244Z - 190045Z SUMMARY...Dangerous snow squall moving southeast with low visibility and moderate to heavy snowfall. DISCUSSION...A snow squall is in progress with moderate to heavy snowfall and visibility less than 1/4 mi reported in Hastings,NE and Grand Island, NE. This squall continues to move south east and may have reached peak intensity, with some uncertainty in what the duration will be given it's location behind the front and low agreement in hi-res guidance in forecast and duration. Rapid drop in visibility is expected with this squall due to moderate to heavy snowfall in combination with strong winds and blowing snow from snow pack on the ground. ..Thornton.. 01/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 39899896 40479824 40709768 40909726 40909684 40759678 40519690 40359696 40229705 40019731 39819755 39689793 39639806 39579848 39549872 39759888 39829889 39899896 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 18 22:47:01 UTC 2024.

MD 0079 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0079 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0444 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Areas affected...Southeastern Nebraska and Northeastern Kansas Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 182244Z - 190045Z SUMMARY...Dangerous snow squall moving southeast with low visibility and moderate to heavy snowfall. DISCUSSION...A snow squall is in progress with moderate to heavy snowfall and visibility less than 1/4 mi reported in Hastings,NE and Grand Island, NE. This squall continues to move south east and may have reached peak intensity, with some uncertainty in what the duration will be given it's location behind the front and low agreement in hi-res guidance in forecast and duration. Rapid drop in visibility is expected with this squall due to moderate to heavy snowfall in combination with strong winds and blowing snow from snow pack on the ground. ..Thornton.. 01/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 39899896 40479824 40709768 40909726 40909684 40759678 40519690 40359696 40229705 40019731 39819755 39689793 39639806 39579848 39549872 39759888 39829889 39899896 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 18 22:29:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z An upper ridge will traverse the central U.S. during the weekend, followed by prolonged mid-level troughing over the Plains states through the week, with multiple embedded impulses pivoting around the mid-level trough. These impulses will support multiple rounds of potentially appreciable precipitation accumulations amid moistening low-level conditions (due to return flow from the Gulf of Mexico). The increased chances of precipitation and moist low-level conditions should limit wildfire-spread potential through the extended forecast period. ..Squitieri.. 01/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z An upper ridge will traverse the central U.S. during the weekend, followed by prolonged mid-level troughing over the Plains states through the week, with multiple embedded impulses pivoting around the mid-level trough. These impulses will support multiple rounds of potentially appreciable precipitation accumulations amid moistening low-level conditions (due to return flow from the Gulf of Mexico). The increased chances of precipitation and moist low-level conditions should limit wildfire-spread potential through the extended forecast period. ..Squitieri.. 01/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z An upper ridge will traverse the central U.S. during the weekend, followed by prolonged mid-level troughing over the Plains states through the week, with multiple embedded impulses pivoting around the mid-level trough. These impulses will support multiple rounds of potentially appreciable precipitation accumulations amid moistening low-level conditions (due to return flow from the Gulf of Mexico). The increased chances of precipitation and moist low-level conditions should limit wildfire-spread potential through the extended forecast period. ..Squitieri.. 01/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more