Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build in across the CONUS today. Under this regime, primarily light winds will remain keeping fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS today. ...Synopsis... Aloft, progressive and mostly zonal flow is expected to persist through the forecast period. A broad, low-amplitude shortwave trough over the East Coast will move offshore through the day, while a trailing shortwave ridge moves into the central CONUS. To the west, a Pacific trough will approach the coast of southern/central CA late tonight into early D2/Sunday. At the surface, a 1042 hPa high over the central Plains will migrate slowly eastward, reaching the mid MS Valley by the end of the forecast period. Associated with a continental polar air mass, sub-freezing, dry and stable conditions will suppress thunderstorm potential over much of the CONUS. An isolated lightning flash is possible across parts of coastal CA, but weak buoyancy, owing to poor mid-level lapse rates, and the late arrival of the upper-level forcing for ascent should keep chances well below 10% coverage thresholds. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 01/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS today. ...Synopsis... Aloft, progressive and mostly zonal flow is expected to persist through the forecast period. A broad, low-amplitude shortwave trough over the East Coast will move offshore through the day, while a trailing shortwave ridge moves into the central CONUS. To the west, a Pacific trough will approach the coast of southern/central CA late tonight into early D2/Sunday. At the surface, a 1042 hPa high over the central Plains will migrate slowly eastward, reaching the mid MS Valley by the end of the forecast period. Associated with a continental polar air mass, sub-freezing, dry and stable conditions will suppress thunderstorm potential over much of the CONUS. An isolated lightning flash is possible across parts of coastal CA, but weak buoyancy, owing to poor mid-level lapse rates, and the late arrival of the upper-level forcing for ascent should keep chances well below 10% coverage thresholds. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 01/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS today. ...Synopsis... Aloft, progressive and mostly zonal flow is expected to persist through the forecast period. A broad, low-amplitude shortwave trough over the East Coast will move offshore through the day, while a trailing shortwave ridge moves into the central CONUS. To the west, a Pacific trough will approach the coast of southern/central CA late tonight into early D2/Sunday. At the surface, a 1042 hPa high over the central Plains will migrate slowly eastward, reaching the mid MS Valley by the end of the forecast period. Associated with a continental polar air mass, sub-freezing, dry and stable conditions will suppress thunderstorm potential over much of the CONUS. An isolated lightning flash is possible across parts of coastal CA, but weak buoyancy, owing to poor mid-level lapse rates, and the late arrival of the upper-level forcing for ascent should keep chances well below 10% coverage thresholds. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 01/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS today. ...Synopsis... Aloft, progressive and mostly zonal flow is expected to persist through the forecast period. A broad, low-amplitude shortwave trough over the East Coast will move offshore through the day, while a trailing shortwave ridge moves into the central CONUS. To the west, a Pacific trough will approach the coast of southern/central CA late tonight into early D2/Sunday. At the surface, a 1042 hPa high over the central Plains will migrate slowly eastward, reaching the mid MS Valley by the end of the forecast period. Associated with a continental polar air mass, sub-freezing, dry and stable conditions will suppress thunderstorm potential over much of the CONUS. An isolated lightning flash is possible across parts of coastal CA, but weak buoyancy, owing to poor mid-level lapse rates, and the late arrival of the upper-level forcing for ascent should keep chances well below 10% coverage thresholds. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 01/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS today. ...Synopsis... Aloft, progressive and mostly zonal flow is expected to persist through the forecast period. A broad, low-amplitude shortwave trough over the East Coast will move offshore through the day, while a trailing shortwave ridge moves into the central CONUS. To the west, a Pacific trough will approach the coast of southern/central CA late tonight into early D2/Sunday. At the surface, a 1042 hPa high over the central Plains will migrate slowly eastward, reaching the mid MS Valley by the end of the forecast period. Associated with a continental polar air mass, sub-freezing, dry and stable conditions will suppress thunderstorm potential over much of the CONUS. An isolated lightning flash is possible across parts of coastal CA, but weak buoyancy, owing to poor mid-level lapse rates, and the late arrival of the upper-level forcing for ascent should keep chances well below 10% coverage thresholds. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 01/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS today. ...Discussion... A slowly progressive upper flow field is expected across the U.S. today, as troughing near the West Coast gradually moves eastward/inland, and a second trough over the East advances toward/into the western Atlantic. In between, ridging initially over the Rockies will progress steadily into/across the Plains. At the surface, a continental polar airmass will prevail east of the Rockies, with a 1040-plus high now centered in the Mid Missouri Valley area forecast to reach the Mid-Ohio and Tennessee Valleys early Sunday morning. With the cold/dry air low-level air in place, thunderstorms are not expected east of the Rockies. In the West, a lack of instability suggests that -- despite widespread precipitation forecast to continue spreading inland, thunderstorms are unlikely through the period. ..Goss.. 01/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS today. ...Discussion... A slowly progressive upper flow field is expected across the U.S. today, as troughing near the West Coast gradually moves eastward/inland, and a second trough over the East advances toward/into the western Atlantic. In between, ridging initially over the Rockies will progress steadily into/across the Plains. At the surface, a continental polar airmass will prevail east of the Rockies, with a 1040-plus high now centered in the Mid Missouri Valley area forecast to reach the Mid-Ohio and Tennessee Valleys early Sunday morning. With the cold/dry air low-level air in place, thunderstorms are not expected east of the Rockies. In the West, a lack of instability suggests that -- despite widespread precipitation forecast to continue spreading inland, thunderstorms are unlikely through the period. ..Goss.. 01/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS today. ...Discussion... A slowly progressive upper flow field is expected across the U.S. today, as troughing near the West Coast gradually moves eastward/inland, and a second trough over the East advances toward/into the western Atlantic. In between, ridging initially over the Rockies will progress steadily into/across the Plains. At the surface, a continental polar airmass will prevail east of the Rockies, with a 1040-plus high now centered in the Mid Missouri Valley area forecast to reach the Mid-Ohio and Tennessee Valleys early Sunday morning. With the cold/dry air low-level air in place, thunderstorms are not expected east of the Rockies. In the West, a lack of instability suggests that -- despite widespread precipitation forecast to continue spreading inland, thunderstorms are unlikely through the period. ..Goss.. 01/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS today. ...Discussion... A slowly progressive upper flow field is expected across the U.S. today, as troughing near the West Coast gradually moves eastward/inland, and a second trough over the East advances toward/into the western Atlantic. In between, ridging initially over the Rockies will progress steadily into/across the Plains. At the surface, a continental polar airmass will prevail east of the Rockies, with a 1040-plus high now centered in the Mid Missouri Valley area forecast to reach the Mid-Ohio and Tennessee Valleys early Sunday morning. With the cold/dry air low-level air in place, thunderstorms are not expected east of the Rockies. In the West, a lack of instability suggests that -- despite widespread precipitation forecast to continue spreading inland, thunderstorms are unlikely through the period. ..Goss.. 01/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS today. ...Discussion... A slowly progressive upper flow field is expected across the U.S. today, as troughing near the West Coast gradually moves eastward/inland, and a second trough over the East advances toward/into the western Atlantic. In between, ridging initially over the Rockies will progress steadily into/across the Plains. At the surface, a continental polar airmass will prevail east of the Rockies, with a 1040-plus high now centered in the Mid Missouri Valley area forecast to reach the Mid-Ohio and Tennessee Valleys early Sunday morning. With the cold/dry air low-level air in place, thunderstorms are not expected east of the Rockies. In the West, a lack of instability suggests that -- despite widespread precipitation forecast to continue spreading inland, thunderstorms are unlikely through the period. ..Goss.. 01/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS today. ...Discussion... A slowly progressive upper flow field is expected across the U.S. today, as troughing near the West Coast gradually moves eastward/inland, and a second trough over the East advances toward/into the western Atlantic. In between, ridging initially over the Rockies will progress steadily into/across the Plains. At the surface, a continental polar airmass will prevail east of the Rockies, with a 1040-plus high now centered in the Mid Missouri Valley area forecast to reach the Mid-Ohio and Tennessee Valleys early Sunday morning. With the cold/dry air low-level air in place, thunderstorms are not expected east of the Rockies. In the West, a lack of instability suggests that -- despite widespread precipitation forecast to continue spreading inland, thunderstorms are unlikely through the period. ..Goss.. 01/20/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to shift from the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley on Tuesday to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by Thursday, as an upper-level trough remains in the vicinity of the Four Corners and southern Rockies. Ahead of the trough on Tuesday, a moist airmass is expected to be in place over the Texas Coastal Plain and lower Mississippi Valley. The moist airmass is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf Coast states on Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop over parts of the moist sector each day. However, instability is forecast to be weak, suggesting that any severe threat will be isolated and marginal. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday, the moist airmass is forecast to shift eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard, where isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Friday and Saturday. Instability is expected to be very weak suggesting convection will remain unorganized Friday into Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to shift from the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley on Tuesday to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by Thursday, as an upper-level trough remains in the vicinity of the Four Corners and southern Rockies. Ahead of the trough on Tuesday, a moist airmass is expected to be in place over the Texas Coastal Plain and lower Mississippi Valley. The moist airmass is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf Coast states on Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop over parts of the moist sector each day. However, instability is forecast to be weak, suggesting that any severe threat will be isolated and marginal. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday, the moist airmass is forecast to shift eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard, where isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Friday and Saturday. Instability is expected to be very weak suggesting convection will remain unorganized Friday into Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to shift from the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley on Tuesday to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by Thursday, as an upper-level trough remains in the vicinity of the Four Corners and southern Rockies. Ahead of the trough on Tuesday, a moist airmass is expected to be in place over the Texas Coastal Plain and lower Mississippi Valley. The moist airmass is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf Coast states on Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop over parts of the moist sector each day. However, instability is forecast to be weak, suggesting that any severe threat will be isolated and marginal. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday, the moist airmass is forecast to shift eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard, where isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Friday and Saturday. Instability is expected to be very weak suggesting convection will remain unorganized Friday into Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to shift from the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley on Tuesday to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by Thursday, as an upper-level trough remains in the vicinity of the Four Corners and southern Rockies. Ahead of the trough on Tuesday, a moist airmass is expected to be in place over the Texas Coastal Plain and lower Mississippi Valley. The moist airmass is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf Coast states on Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop over parts of the moist sector each day. However, instability is forecast to be weak, suggesting that any severe threat will be isolated and marginal. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday, the moist airmass is forecast to shift eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard, where isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Friday and Saturday. Instability is expected to be very weak suggesting convection will remain unorganized Friday into Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to shift from the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley on Tuesday to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by Thursday, as an upper-level trough remains in the vicinity of the Four Corners and southern Rockies. Ahead of the trough on Tuesday, a moist airmass is expected to be in place over the Texas Coastal Plain and lower Mississippi Valley. The moist airmass is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf Coast states on Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop over parts of the moist sector each day. However, instability is forecast to be weak, suggesting that any severe threat will be isolated and marginal. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday, the moist airmass is forecast to shift eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard, where isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Friday and Saturday. Instability is expected to be very weak suggesting convection will remain unorganized Friday into Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to shift from the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley on Tuesday to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by Thursday, as an upper-level trough remains in the vicinity of the Four Corners and southern Rockies. Ahead of the trough on Tuesday, a moist airmass is expected to be in place over the Texas Coastal Plain and lower Mississippi Valley. The moist airmass is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf Coast states on Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop over parts of the moist sector each day. However, instability is forecast to be weak, suggesting that any severe threat will be isolated and marginal. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday, the moist airmass is forecast to shift eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard, where isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Friday and Saturday. Instability is expected to be very weak suggesting convection will remain unorganized Friday into Saturday. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern Plains, Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley from Monday into Monday night. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop along parts of the California coast and in southwest Arizona. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States. ...DISCUSSION... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Monday from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. A shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains during the day. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorms will be possible within a moist airmass across parts of southern and central Texas. The storms are expected to move eastward across east Texas and into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Instability is forecast to be weak, which should limit any potential for severe convection. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of an approaching shortwave trough along the coast of California and in southwest Arizona, but no severe threat is expected. ..Broyles.. 01/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern Plains, Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley from Monday into Monday night. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop along parts of the California coast and in southwest Arizona. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States. ...DISCUSSION... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Monday from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. A shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains during the day. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorms will be possible within a moist airmass across parts of southern and central Texas. The storms are expected to move eastward across east Texas and into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Instability is forecast to be weak, which should limit any potential for severe convection. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of an approaching shortwave trough along the coast of California and in southwest Arizona, but no severe threat is expected. ..Broyles.. 01/20/2024 Read more