Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z An Elevated area has been added for parts of the central Plains into Iowa. There is reasonably high confidence in winds of 20-25 mph winds (with higher gusts) across these areas. There does remain some uncertainty on how warm temperatures will be during the afternoon, particularly where upper-level clouds will be more prevalent farther south. Greater weight was given to the warmer/drier models given the dry return flow setup. There were areas of snowfall, some of which has melted today, that could limit the fire weather threat to some extent. Those areas were not included at this time, though locally elevated conditions would be possible. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Eastern US trough is forecast to move offshore as transient ridging shifts eastward over the central CONUS. A southern stream shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains along with a weak surface low. The post-frontal air mass over much of the Plains and central US will quickly modify as southerly winds redevelop. While widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected, dry and breezy conditions are possible. ...Central Plains and Mid MS Valley... As the surface high pressure in the post-frontal air mass to the east strengthens, southerly return flow should quickly redevelop over the Plains. With the much drier air mass from the proceeding days in place, gusty southerly winds of 15-25 mph are possible from parts of KS into western MO and southern NE. RH values may not reach critical criteria more than briefly, but dry fuels and the gusty winds could support a risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Gulf Coast... Gusty offshore winds and dry surface conditions are also possible across parts of the Southeast and central Gulf Coast. While not overly strong or dry, lower humidity and gusty winds should overlap with areas of limited rainfall in recent weeks. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible before rain chances increase into Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z An Elevated area has been added for parts of the central Plains into Iowa. There is reasonably high confidence in winds of 20-25 mph winds (with higher gusts) across these areas. There does remain some uncertainty on how warm temperatures will be during the afternoon, particularly where upper-level clouds will be more prevalent farther south. Greater weight was given to the warmer/drier models given the dry return flow setup. There were areas of snowfall, some of which has melted today, that could limit the fire weather threat to some extent. Those areas were not included at this time, though locally elevated conditions would be possible. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Eastern US trough is forecast to move offshore as transient ridging shifts eastward over the central CONUS. A southern stream shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains along with a weak surface low. The post-frontal air mass over much of the Plains and central US will quickly modify as southerly winds redevelop. While widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected, dry and breezy conditions are possible. ...Central Plains and Mid MS Valley... As the surface high pressure in the post-frontal air mass to the east strengthens, southerly return flow should quickly redevelop over the Plains. With the much drier air mass from the proceeding days in place, gusty southerly winds of 15-25 mph are possible from parts of KS into western MO and southern NE. RH values may not reach critical criteria more than briefly, but dry fuels and the gusty winds could support a risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Gulf Coast... Gusty offshore winds and dry surface conditions are also possible across parts of the Southeast and central Gulf Coast. While not overly strong or dry, lower humidity and gusty winds should overlap with areas of limited rainfall in recent weeks. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible before rain chances increase into Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z An Elevated area has been added for parts of the central Plains into Iowa. There is reasonably high confidence in winds of 20-25 mph winds (with higher gusts) across these areas. There does remain some uncertainty on how warm temperatures will be during the afternoon, particularly where upper-level clouds will be more prevalent farther south. Greater weight was given to the warmer/drier models given the dry return flow setup. There were areas of snowfall, some of which has melted today, that could limit the fire weather threat to some extent. Those areas were not included at this time, though locally elevated conditions would be possible. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Eastern US trough is forecast to move offshore as transient ridging shifts eastward over the central CONUS. A southern stream shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains along with a weak surface low. The post-frontal air mass over much of the Plains and central US will quickly modify as southerly winds redevelop. While widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected, dry and breezy conditions are possible. ...Central Plains and Mid MS Valley... As the surface high pressure in the post-frontal air mass to the east strengthens, southerly return flow should quickly redevelop over the Plains. With the much drier air mass from the proceeding days in place, gusty southerly winds of 15-25 mph are possible from parts of KS into western MO and southern NE. RH values may not reach critical criteria more than briefly, but dry fuels and the gusty winds could support a risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Gulf Coast... Gusty offshore winds and dry surface conditions are also possible across parts of the Southeast and central Gulf Coast. While not overly strong or dry, lower humidity and gusty winds should overlap with areas of limited rainfall in recent weeks. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible before rain chances increase into Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z An Elevated area has been added for parts of the central Plains into Iowa. There is reasonably high confidence in winds of 20-25 mph winds (with higher gusts) across these areas. There does remain some uncertainty on how warm temperatures will be during the afternoon, particularly where upper-level clouds will be more prevalent farther south. Greater weight was given to the warmer/drier models given the dry return flow setup. There were areas of snowfall, some of which has melted today, that could limit the fire weather threat to some extent. Those areas were not included at this time, though locally elevated conditions would be possible. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Eastern US trough is forecast to move offshore as transient ridging shifts eastward over the central CONUS. A southern stream shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains along with a weak surface low. The post-frontal air mass over much of the Plains and central US will quickly modify as southerly winds redevelop. While widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected, dry and breezy conditions are possible. ...Central Plains and Mid MS Valley... As the surface high pressure in the post-frontal air mass to the east strengthens, southerly return flow should quickly redevelop over the Plains. With the much drier air mass from the proceeding days in place, gusty southerly winds of 15-25 mph are possible from parts of KS into western MO and southern NE. RH values may not reach critical criteria more than briefly, but dry fuels and the gusty winds could support a risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Gulf Coast... Gusty offshore winds and dry surface conditions are also possible across parts of the Southeast and central Gulf Coast. While not overly strong or dry, lower humidity and gusty winds should overlap with areas of limited rainfall in recent weeks. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible before rain chances increase into Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z An Elevated area has been added for parts of the central Plains into Iowa. There is reasonably high confidence in winds of 20-25 mph winds (with higher gusts) across these areas. There does remain some uncertainty on how warm temperatures will be during the afternoon, particularly where upper-level clouds will be more prevalent farther south. Greater weight was given to the warmer/drier models given the dry return flow setup. There were areas of snowfall, some of which has melted today, that could limit the fire weather threat to some extent. Those areas were not included at this time, though locally elevated conditions would be possible. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Eastern US trough is forecast to move offshore as transient ridging shifts eastward over the central CONUS. A southern stream shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains along with a weak surface low. The post-frontal air mass over much of the Plains and central US will quickly modify as southerly winds redevelop. While widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected, dry and breezy conditions are possible. ...Central Plains and Mid MS Valley... As the surface high pressure in the post-frontal air mass to the east strengthens, southerly return flow should quickly redevelop over the Plains. With the much drier air mass from the proceeding days in place, gusty southerly winds of 15-25 mph are possible from parts of KS into western MO and southern NE. RH values may not reach critical criteria more than briefly, but dry fuels and the gusty winds could support a risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Gulf Coast... Gusty offshore winds and dry surface conditions are also possible across parts of the Southeast and central Gulf Coast. While not overly strong or dry, lower humidity and gusty winds should overlap with areas of limited rainfall in recent weeks. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible before rain chances increase into Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z An Elevated area has been added for parts of the central Plains into Iowa. There is reasonably high confidence in winds of 20-25 mph winds (with higher gusts) across these areas. There does remain some uncertainty on how warm temperatures will be during the afternoon, particularly where upper-level clouds will be more prevalent farther south. Greater weight was given to the warmer/drier models given the dry return flow setup. There were areas of snowfall, some of which has melted today, that could limit the fire weather threat to some extent. Those areas were not included at this time, though locally elevated conditions would be possible. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Eastern US trough is forecast to move offshore as transient ridging shifts eastward over the central CONUS. A southern stream shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains along with a weak surface low. The post-frontal air mass over much of the Plains and central US will quickly modify as southerly winds redevelop. While widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected, dry and breezy conditions are possible. ...Central Plains and Mid MS Valley... As the surface high pressure in the post-frontal air mass to the east strengthens, southerly return flow should quickly redevelop over the Plains. With the much drier air mass from the proceeding days in place, gusty southerly winds of 15-25 mph are possible from parts of KS into western MO and southern NE. RH values may not reach critical criteria more than briefly, but dry fuels and the gusty winds could support a risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Gulf Coast... Gusty offshore winds and dry surface conditions are also possible across parts of the Southeast and central Gulf Coast. While not overly strong or dry, lower humidity and gusty winds should overlap with areas of limited rainfall in recent weeks. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible before rain chances increase into Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z An Elevated area has been added for parts of the central Plains into Iowa. There is reasonably high confidence in winds of 20-25 mph winds (with higher gusts) across these areas. There does remain some uncertainty on how warm temperatures will be during the afternoon, particularly where upper-level clouds will be more prevalent farther south. Greater weight was given to the warmer/drier models given the dry return flow setup. There were areas of snowfall, some of which has melted today, that could limit the fire weather threat to some extent. Those areas were not included at this time, though locally elevated conditions would be possible. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Eastern US trough is forecast to move offshore as transient ridging shifts eastward over the central CONUS. A southern stream shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains along with a weak surface low. The post-frontal air mass over much of the Plains and central US will quickly modify as southerly winds redevelop. While widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected, dry and breezy conditions are possible. ...Central Plains and Mid MS Valley... As the surface high pressure in the post-frontal air mass to the east strengthens, southerly return flow should quickly redevelop over the Plains. With the much drier air mass from the proceeding days in place, gusty southerly winds of 15-25 mph are possible from parts of KS into western MO and southern NE. RH values may not reach critical criteria more than briefly, but dry fuels and the gusty winds could support a risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Gulf Coast... Gusty offshore winds and dry surface conditions are also possible across parts of the Southeast and central Gulf Coast. While not overly strong or dry, lower humidity and gusty winds should overlap with areas of limited rainfall in recent weeks. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible before rain chances increase into Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of Wednesday's frontal passage, a dry continental air mass will be in place east of the Rockies, with any notable low-level moisture confined the Gulf of Mexico. Even so, mid-level moisture and ascent attendant to a southern-stream shortwave trough forecast to progress across the southern Plains may support a few thunderstorms across north/central TX during the afternoon and evening. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later in the period from southeast TX into the Lower MS Valley, where more mid-level moisture will promote elevated buoyancy and greater storm depth. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. Farther west, upper troughing is expected to gradually spread eastward across the Pacific Northwest throughout the day. An embedded shortwave is forecast to progress through this troughing, reaching the Pacific Northwest coast by Thursday afternoon before continuing northeastward across the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies Thursday night into Friday morning. Some deeper convective cores are possible within the frontal band associated with this shortwave, but the general expectation for these cores to remain too shallow for lightning production. Mid-level temperatures will continue to cool in the wake of this wave, dropping below -30 deg C at 500-mb by late Thursday afternoon. Low to mid-level moisture will remain rather scant, but this cooling aloft should still result in the development of minimal buoyancy along the coast. Greater storm depth should result, which should contribute to more thunderstorms and higher overall thunderstorm coverage. ..Mosier.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of Wednesday's frontal passage, a dry continental air mass will be in place east of the Rockies, with any notable low-level moisture confined the Gulf of Mexico. Even so, mid-level moisture and ascent attendant to a southern-stream shortwave trough forecast to progress across the southern Plains may support a few thunderstorms across north/central TX during the afternoon and evening. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later in the period from southeast TX into the Lower MS Valley, where more mid-level moisture will promote elevated buoyancy and greater storm depth. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. Farther west, upper troughing is expected to gradually spread eastward across the Pacific Northwest throughout the day. An embedded shortwave is forecast to progress through this troughing, reaching the Pacific Northwest coast by Thursday afternoon before continuing northeastward across the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies Thursday night into Friday morning. Some deeper convective cores are possible within the frontal band associated with this shortwave, but the general expectation for these cores to remain too shallow for lightning production. Mid-level temperatures will continue to cool in the wake of this wave, dropping below -30 deg C at 500-mb by late Thursday afternoon. Low to mid-level moisture will remain rather scant, but this cooling aloft should still result in the development of minimal buoyancy along the coast. Greater storm depth should result, which should contribute to more thunderstorms and higher overall thunderstorm coverage. ..Mosier.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of Wednesday's frontal passage, a dry continental air mass will be in place east of the Rockies, with any notable low-level moisture confined the Gulf of Mexico. Even so, mid-level moisture and ascent attendant to a southern-stream shortwave trough forecast to progress across the southern Plains may support a few thunderstorms across north/central TX during the afternoon and evening. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later in the period from southeast TX into the Lower MS Valley, where more mid-level moisture will promote elevated buoyancy and greater storm depth. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. Farther west, upper troughing is expected to gradually spread eastward across the Pacific Northwest throughout the day. An embedded shortwave is forecast to progress through this troughing, reaching the Pacific Northwest coast by Thursday afternoon before continuing northeastward across the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies Thursday night into Friday morning. Some deeper convective cores are possible within the frontal band associated with this shortwave, but the general expectation for these cores to remain too shallow for lightning production. Mid-level temperatures will continue to cool in the wake of this wave, dropping below -30 deg C at 500-mb by late Thursday afternoon. Low to mid-level moisture will remain rather scant, but this cooling aloft should still result in the development of minimal buoyancy along the coast. Greater storm depth should result, which should contribute to more thunderstorms and higher overall thunderstorm coverage. ..Mosier.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of Wednesday's frontal passage, a dry continental air mass will be in place east of the Rockies, with any notable low-level moisture confined the Gulf of Mexico. Even so, mid-level moisture and ascent attendant to a southern-stream shortwave trough forecast to progress across the southern Plains may support a few thunderstorms across north/central TX during the afternoon and evening. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later in the period from southeast TX into the Lower MS Valley, where more mid-level moisture will promote elevated buoyancy and greater storm depth. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. Farther west, upper troughing is expected to gradually spread eastward across the Pacific Northwest throughout the day. An embedded shortwave is forecast to progress through this troughing, reaching the Pacific Northwest coast by Thursday afternoon before continuing northeastward across the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies Thursday night into Friday morning. Some deeper convective cores are possible within the frontal band associated with this shortwave, but the general expectation for these cores to remain too shallow for lightning production. Mid-level temperatures will continue to cool in the wake of this wave, dropping below -30 deg C at 500-mb by late Thursday afternoon. Low to mid-level moisture will remain rather scant, but this cooling aloft should still result in the development of minimal buoyancy along the coast. Greater storm depth should result, which should contribute to more thunderstorms and higher overall thunderstorm coverage. ..Mosier.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of Wednesday's frontal passage, a dry continental air mass will be in place east of the Rockies, with any notable low-level moisture confined the Gulf of Mexico. Even so, mid-level moisture and ascent attendant to a southern-stream shortwave trough forecast to progress across the southern Plains may support a few thunderstorms across north/central TX during the afternoon and evening. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later in the period from southeast TX into the Lower MS Valley, where more mid-level moisture will promote elevated buoyancy and greater storm depth. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. Farther west, upper troughing is expected to gradually spread eastward across the Pacific Northwest throughout the day. An embedded shortwave is forecast to progress through this troughing, reaching the Pacific Northwest coast by Thursday afternoon before continuing northeastward across the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies Thursday night into Friday morning. Some deeper convective cores are possible within the frontal band associated with this shortwave, but the general expectation for these cores to remain too shallow for lightning production. Mid-level temperatures will continue to cool in the wake of this wave, dropping below -30 deg C at 500-mb by late Thursday afternoon. Low to mid-level moisture will remain rather scant, but this cooling aloft should still result in the development of minimal buoyancy along the coast. Greater storm depth should result, which should contribute to more thunderstorms and higher overall thunderstorm coverage. ..Mosier.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of Wednesday's frontal passage, a dry continental air mass will be in place east of the Rockies, with any notable low-level moisture confined the Gulf of Mexico. Even so, mid-level moisture and ascent attendant to a southern-stream shortwave trough forecast to progress across the southern Plains may support a few thunderstorms across north/central TX during the afternoon and evening. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later in the period from southeast TX into the Lower MS Valley, where more mid-level moisture will promote elevated buoyancy and greater storm depth. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. Farther west, upper troughing is expected to gradually spread eastward across the Pacific Northwest throughout the day. An embedded shortwave is forecast to progress through this troughing, reaching the Pacific Northwest coast by Thursday afternoon before continuing northeastward across the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies Thursday night into Friday morning. Some deeper convective cores are possible within the frontal band associated with this shortwave, but the general expectation for these cores to remain too shallow for lightning production. Mid-level temperatures will continue to cool in the wake of this wave, dropping below -30 deg C at 500-mb by late Thursday afternoon. Low to mid-level moisture will remain rather scant, but this cooling aloft should still result in the development of minimal buoyancy along the coast. Greater storm depth should result, which should contribute to more thunderstorms and higher overall thunderstorm coverage. ..Mosier.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of Wednesday's frontal passage, a dry continental air mass will be in place east of the Rockies, with any notable low-level moisture confined the Gulf of Mexico. Even so, mid-level moisture and ascent attendant to a southern-stream shortwave trough forecast to progress across the southern Plains may support a few thunderstorms across north/central TX during the afternoon and evening. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later in the period from southeast TX into the Lower MS Valley, where more mid-level moisture will promote elevated buoyancy and greater storm depth. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. Farther west, upper troughing is expected to gradually spread eastward across the Pacific Northwest throughout the day. An embedded shortwave is forecast to progress through this troughing, reaching the Pacific Northwest coast by Thursday afternoon before continuing northeastward across the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies Thursday night into Friday morning. Some deeper convective cores are possible within the frontal band associated with this shortwave, but the general expectation for these cores to remain too shallow for lightning production. Mid-level temperatures will continue to cool in the wake of this wave, dropping below -30 deg C at 500-mb by late Thursday afternoon. Low to mid-level moisture will remain rather scant, but this cooling aloft should still result in the development of minimal buoyancy along the coast. Greater storm depth should result, which should contribute to more thunderstorms and higher overall thunderstorm coverage. ..Mosier.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of Wednesday's frontal passage, a dry continental air mass will be in place east of the Rockies, with any notable low-level moisture confined the Gulf of Mexico. Even so, mid-level moisture and ascent attendant to a southern-stream shortwave trough forecast to progress across the southern Plains may support a few thunderstorms across north/central TX during the afternoon and evening. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later in the period from southeast TX into the Lower MS Valley, where more mid-level moisture will promote elevated buoyancy and greater storm depth. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. Farther west, upper troughing is expected to gradually spread eastward across the Pacific Northwest throughout the day. An embedded shortwave is forecast to progress through this troughing, reaching the Pacific Northwest coast by Thursday afternoon before continuing northeastward across the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies Thursday night into Friday morning. Some deeper convective cores are possible within the frontal band associated with this shortwave, but the general expectation for these cores to remain too shallow for lightning production. Mid-level temperatures will continue to cool in the wake of this wave, dropping below -30 deg C at 500-mb by late Thursday afternoon. Low to mid-level moisture will remain rather scant, but this cooling aloft should still result in the development of minimal buoyancy along the coast. Greater storm depth should result, which should contribute to more thunderstorms and higher overall thunderstorm coverage. ..Mosier.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of Wednesday's frontal passage, a dry continental air mass will be in place east of the Rockies, with any notable low-level moisture confined the Gulf of Mexico. Even so, mid-level moisture and ascent attendant to a southern-stream shortwave trough forecast to progress across the southern Plains may support a few thunderstorms across north/central TX during the afternoon and evening. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later in the period from southeast TX into the Lower MS Valley, where more mid-level moisture will promote elevated buoyancy and greater storm depth. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. Farther west, upper troughing is expected to gradually spread eastward across the Pacific Northwest throughout the day. An embedded shortwave is forecast to progress through this troughing, reaching the Pacific Northwest coast by Thursday afternoon before continuing northeastward across the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies Thursday night into Friday morning. Some deeper convective cores are possible within the frontal band associated with this shortwave, but the general expectation for these cores to remain too shallow for lightning production. Mid-level temperatures will continue to cool in the wake of this wave, dropping below -30 deg C at 500-mb by late Thursday afternoon. Low to mid-level moisture will remain rather scant, but this cooling aloft should still result in the development of minimal buoyancy along the coast. Greater storm depth should result, which should contribute to more thunderstorms and higher overall thunderstorm coverage. ..Mosier.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of Wednesday's frontal passage, a dry continental air mass will be in place east of the Rockies, with any notable low-level moisture confined the Gulf of Mexico. Even so, mid-level moisture and ascent attendant to a southern-stream shortwave trough forecast to progress across the southern Plains may support a few thunderstorms across north/central TX during the afternoon and evening. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later in the period from southeast TX into the Lower MS Valley, where more mid-level moisture will promote elevated buoyancy and greater storm depth. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. Farther west, upper troughing is expected to gradually spread eastward across the Pacific Northwest throughout the day. An embedded shortwave is forecast to progress through this troughing, reaching the Pacific Northwest coast by Thursday afternoon before continuing northeastward across the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies Thursday night into Friday morning. Some deeper convective cores are possible within the frontal band associated with this shortwave, but the general expectation for these cores to remain too shallow for lightning production. Mid-level temperatures will continue to cool in the wake of this wave, dropping below -30 deg C at 500-mb by late Thursday afternoon. Low to mid-level moisture will remain rather scant, but this cooling aloft should still result in the development of minimal buoyancy along the coast. Greater storm depth should result, which should contribute to more thunderstorms and higher overall thunderstorm coverage. ..Mosier.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. The previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... An intensifying mid-level trough will quickly move eastward over the Atlantic coast as ridging develops over the western CONUS. Beneath the ridge, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move out of northern Mexico across the Southwest and west TX. A powerful cold front over the Plains will continue south, ushering in a much colder air mass. With cooler temperatures and gradually weakening winds expected within the post-frontal air mass, overall fire-weather concerns appear low for much of the Plains. One exception may be across parts of south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Here, area fuels are dry and RH values may still fall below 25% briefly. Combined with north/northeast winds near 20 mph, brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Dry and breezy conditions may also persist behind the front across parts of AR and the lower MS Valley. However, widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. The previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... An intensifying mid-level trough will quickly move eastward over the Atlantic coast as ridging develops over the western CONUS. Beneath the ridge, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move out of northern Mexico across the Southwest and west TX. A powerful cold front over the Plains will continue south, ushering in a much colder air mass. With cooler temperatures and gradually weakening winds expected within the post-frontal air mass, overall fire-weather concerns appear low for much of the Plains. One exception may be across parts of south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Here, area fuels are dry and RH values may still fall below 25% briefly. Combined with north/northeast winds near 20 mph, brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Dry and breezy conditions may also persist behind the front across parts of AR and the lower MS Valley. However, widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. The previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... An intensifying mid-level trough will quickly move eastward over the Atlantic coast as ridging develops over the western CONUS. Beneath the ridge, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move out of northern Mexico across the Southwest and west TX. A powerful cold front over the Plains will continue south, ushering in a much colder air mass. With cooler temperatures and gradually weakening winds expected within the post-frontal air mass, overall fire-weather concerns appear low for much of the Plains. One exception may be across parts of south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Here, area fuels are dry and RH values may still fall below 25% briefly. Combined with north/northeast winds near 20 mph, brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Dry and breezy conditions may also persist behind the front across parts of AR and the lower MS Valley. However, widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more