Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Sun Dec 03 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Enhanced west to northwesterly upper-level flow across the Rockies into the High Plains will support dry downslope flow in to the Central High and Southern Plains this afternoon. Relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent with sustained winds around 20-25 mph will overlap across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into far western Texas. While fuels in these regions remain above seasonal average for moistness, some drying can be expected in dormant fine fuels. Given low confidence in status of fuels, no areas have been included with this outlook, though Elevated meteorological conditions are possible. ..Thornton.. 12/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Sun Dec 03 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Enhanced west to northwesterly upper-level flow across the Rockies into the High Plains will support dry downslope flow in to the Central High and Southern Plains this afternoon. Relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent with sustained winds around 20-25 mph will overlap across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into far western Texas. While fuels in these regions remain above seasonal average for moistness, some drying can be expected in dormant fine fuels. Given low confidence in status of fuels, no areas have been included with this outlook, though Elevated meteorological conditions are possible. ..Thornton.. 12/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Sun Dec 03 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Enhanced west to northwesterly upper-level flow across the Rockies into the High Plains will support dry downslope flow in to the Central High and Southern Plains this afternoon. Relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent with sustained winds around 20-25 mph will overlap across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into far western Texas. While fuels in these regions remain above seasonal average for moistness, some drying can be expected in dormant fine fuels. Given low confidence in status of fuels, no areas have been included with this outlook, though Elevated meteorological conditions are possible. ..Thornton.. 12/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Sun Dec 03 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Enhanced west to northwesterly upper-level flow across the Rockies into the High Plains will support dry downslope flow in to the Central High and Southern Plains this afternoon. Relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent with sustained winds around 20-25 mph will overlap across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into far western Texas. While fuels in these regions remain above seasonal average for moistness, some drying can be expected in dormant fine fuels. Given low confidence in status of fuels, no areas have been included with this outlook, though Elevated meteorological conditions are possible. ..Thornton.. 12/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of hail and/or damaging wind gusts are possible over western Pennsylvania this afternoon. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough traversing KS/OK early Sunday morning is expected to progress northeastward across the Mid MS and OH Valleys today, before then continuing through the Northeast overnight. Another substantial shortwave trough will follow in the wake of the first, moving through the central Plains and Mid MS Valley by early Monday morning. Surface pattern early Sunday morning features a low over eastern KY/TN vicinity, with a cold front extending from this low back southwest from the low across northern and western AL, and southern MS. This low is forecast to progress north-northeastward throughout the day, deepening as it does. At the same time, the cold front is expected to make steady eastward progress across AL, GA, and much of the FL Peninsula. Expectation is for the front to be off the Southeast coast and through much of the northern and central FL by early Monday morning. Thunderstorms are possible along this front, as well as preceding outflow. Moderate mid-level flow will be in place, but the stronger flow aloft will lag behind these showers and thunderstorms. Additionally, buoyancy will be tempered by modest lapse rates. These factors should limit the overall storm strength and keep severe potential low. ...Upper OH Valley... Despite early period cloudiness and showers, the airmass across the Upper OH Valley is expected to destabilize by the afternoon, with temperatures likely reaching the low to mid 50s across western PA. Low-level moisture will be modest, with dewpoints likely in the upper 40s/low 50s. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates coupled with cooling temperatures aloft should result in modest buoyancy ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Strong ascent attendant to this shortwave is expected foster thunderstorm development as it interacts with this limited buoyancy. Low-level flow will be modest, but strong mid and upper-level flow will encourage fast storm motions and the potential for a few stronger gusts with any robust storms. Given the cold mid-level temperatures and strong deep-layer shear, some hail is possible as well. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 12/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of hail and/or damaging wind gusts are possible over western Pennsylvania this afternoon. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough traversing KS/OK early Sunday morning is expected to progress northeastward across the Mid MS and OH Valleys today, before then continuing through the Northeast overnight. Another substantial shortwave trough will follow in the wake of the first, moving through the central Plains and Mid MS Valley by early Monday morning. Surface pattern early Sunday morning features a low over eastern KY/TN vicinity, with a cold front extending from this low back southwest from the low across northern and western AL, and southern MS. This low is forecast to progress north-northeastward throughout the day, deepening as it does. At the same time, the cold front is expected to make steady eastward progress across AL, GA, and much of the FL Peninsula. Expectation is for the front to be off the Southeast coast and through much of the northern and central FL by early Monday morning. Thunderstorms are possible along this front, as well as preceding outflow. Moderate mid-level flow will be in place, but the stronger flow aloft will lag behind these showers and thunderstorms. Additionally, buoyancy will be tempered by modest lapse rates. These factors should limit the overall storm strength and keep severe potential low. ...Upper OH Valley... Despite early period cloudiness and showers, the airmass across the Upper OH Valley is expected to destabilize by the afternoon, with temperatures likely reaching the low to mid 50s across western PA. Low-level moisture will be modest, with dewpoints likely in the upper 40s/low 50s. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates coupled with cooling temperatures aloft should result in modest buoyancy ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Strong ascent attendant to this shortwave is expected foster thunderstorm development as it interacts with this limited buoyancy. Low-level flow will be modest, but strong mid and upper-level flow will encourage fast storm motions and the potential for a few stronger gusts with any robust storms. Given the cold mid-level temperatures and strong deep-layer shear, some hail is possible as well. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 12/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of hail and/or damaging wind gusts are possible over western Pennsylvania this afternoon. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough traversing KS/OK early Sunday morning is expected to progress northeastward across the Mid MS and OH Valleys today, before then continuing through the Northeast overnight. Another substantial shortwave trough will follow in the wake of the first, moving through the central Plains and Mid MS Valley by early Monday morning. Surface pattern early Sunday morning features a low over eastern KY/TN vicinity, with a cold front extending from this low back southwest from the low across northern and western AL, and southern MS. This low is forecast to progress north-northeastward throughout the day, deepening as it does. At the same time, the cold front is expected to make steady eastward progress across AL, GA, and much of the FL Peninsula. Expectation is for the front to be off the Southeast coast and through much of the northern and central FL by early Monday morning. Thunderstorms are possible along this front, as well as preceding outflow. Moderate mid-level flow will be in place, but the stronger flow aloft will lag behind these showers and thunderstorms. Additionally, buoyancy will be tempered by modest lapse rates. These factors should limit the overall storm strength and keep severe potential low. ...Upper OH Valley... Despite early period cloudiness and showers, the airmass across the Upper OH Valley is expected to destabilize by the afternoon, with temperatures likely reaching the low to mid 50s across western PA. Low-level moisture will be modest, with dewpoints likely in the upper 40s/low 50s. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates coupled with cooling temperatures aloft should result in modest buoyancy ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Strong ascent attendant to this shortwave is expected foster thunderstorm development as it interacts with this limited buoyancy. Low-level flow will be modest, but strong mid and upper-level flow will encourage fast storm motions and the potential for a few stronger gusts with any robust storms. Given the cold mid-level temperatures and strong deep-layer shear, some hail is possible as well. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 12/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of hail and/or damaging wind gusts are possible over western Pennsylvania this afternoon. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough traversing KS/OK early Sunday morning is expected to progress northeastward across the Mid MS and OH Valleys today, before then continuing through the Northeast overnight. Another substantial shortwave trough will follow in the wake of the first, moving through the central Plains and Mid MS Valley by early Monday morning. Surface pattern early Sunday morning features a low over eastern KY/TN vicinity, with a cold front extending from this low back southwest from the low across northern and western AL, and southern MS. This low is forecast to progress north-northeastward throughout the day, deepening as it does. At the same time, the cold front is expected to make steady eastward progress across AL, GA, and much of the FL Peninsula. Expectation is for the front to be off the Southeast coast and through much of the northern and central FL by early Monday morning. Thunderstorms are possible along this front, as well as preceding outflow. Moderate mid-level flow will be in place, but the stronger flow aloft will lag behind these showers and thunderstorms. Additionally, buoyancy will be tempered by modest lapse rates. These factors should limit the overall storm strength and keep severe potential low. ...Upper OH Valley... Despite early period cloudiness and showers, the airmass across the Upper OH Valley is expected to destabilize by the afternoon, with temperatures likely reaching the low to mid 50s across western PA. Low-level moisture will be modest, with dewpoints likely in the upper 40s/low 50s. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates coupled with cooling temperatures aloft should result in modest buoyancy ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Strong ascent attendant to this shortwave is expected foster thunderstorm development as it interacts with this limited buoyancy. Low-level flow will be modest, but strong mid and upper-level flow will encourage fast storm motions and the potential for a few stronger gusts with any robust storms. Given the cold mid-level temperatures and strong deep-layer shear, some hail is possible as well. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 12/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of hail and/or damaging wind gusts are possible over western Pennsylvania this afternoon. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough traversing KS/OK early Sunday morning is expected to progress northeastward across the Mid MS and OH Valleys today, before then continuing through the Northeast overnight. Another substantial shortwave trough will follow in the wake of the first, moving through the central Plains and Mid MS Valley by early Monday morning. Surface pattern early Sunday morning features a low over eastern KY/TN vicinity, with a cold front extending from this low back southwest from the low across northern and western AL, and southern MS. This low is forecast to progress north-northeastward throughout the day, deepening as it does. At the same time, the cold front is expected to make steady eastward progress across AL, GA, and much of the FL Peninsula. Expectation is for the front to be off the Southeast coast and through much of the northern and central FL by early Monday morning. Thunderstorms are possible along this front, as well as preceding outflow. Moderate mid-level flow will be in place, but the stronger flow aloft will lag behind these showers and thunderstorms. Additionally, buoyancy will be tempered by modest lapse rates. These factors should limit the overall storm strength and keep severe potential low. ...Upper OH Valley... Despite early period cloudiness and showers, the airmass across the Upper OH Valley is expected to destabilize by the afternoon, with temperatures likely reaching the low to mid 50s across western PA. Low-level moisture will be modest, with dewpoints likely in the upper 40s/low 50s. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates coupled with cooling temperatures aloft should result in modest buoyancy ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Strong ascent attendant to this shortwave is expected foster thunderstorm development as it interacts with this limited buoyancy. Low-level flow will be modest, but strong mid and upper-level flow will encourage fast storm motions and the potential for a few stronger gusts with any robust storms. Given the cold mid-level temperatures and strong deep-layer shear, some hail is possible as well. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 12/03/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 PM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of damaging gusts remain possible from the Florida Panhandle into northern Florida this evening and overnight. ...01Z Update... Showers and thunderstorms continue along and north of a warm front extending from off the far southeast LA Coast eastward across northern FL, supported by warm-air advection associated with the southwesterly low-level flow. This general pattern will likely continue throughout the evening. Thereafter, thunderstorms are then expected to increasing in coverage along the eastward-moving cold front as it interacts with the moist and modestly buoyant air mass still in place from central/southern AL into GA and northern FL. Shear is expected to remain strong enough for an occasionally organized storm or two, particularly in the vicinity of the warm front from the FL Panhandle into northern FL. As a such, a few damaging gusts remain possible. ..Mosier.. 12/03/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 PM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of damaging gusts remain possible from the Florida Panhandle into northern Florida this evening and overnight. ...01Z Update... Showers and thunderstorms continue along and north of a warm front extending from off the far southeast LA Coast eastward across northern FL, supported by warm-air advection associated with the southwesterly low-level flow. This general pattern will likely continue throughout the evening. Thereafter, thunderstorms are then expected to increasing in coverage along the eastward-moving cold front as it interacts with the moist and modestly buoyant air mass still in place from central/southern AL into GA and northern FL. Shear is expected to remain strong enough for an occasionally organized storm or two, particularly in the vicinity of the warm front from the FL Panhandle into northern FL. As a such, a few damaging gusts remain possible. ..Mosier.. 12/03/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Dec 2 22:14:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Dec 2 22:14:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Cool temperatures and moist fuels will be present across most of the CONUS through the week. Fine fuels in the southern High Plains will continue to dry through the period, but winds will be light for much of the week which should minimize fire weather concerns. There will be at least some increase in fire weather potential in the southern high Plains toward the end of the week as stronger mid-level flow overspreads the region and dry and breezy conditions resume. However, confidence still remains too low for any probabilities given questionably dry fuels and the majority of windy conditions in the post frontal airmass when temperatures are expected to be cooler. ..Bentley.. 12/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Cool temperatures and moist fuels will be present across most of the CONUS through the week. Fine fuels in the southern High Plains will continue to dry through the period, but winds will be light for much of the week which should minimize fire weather concerns. There will be at least some increase in fire weather potential in the southern high Plains toward the end of the week as stronger mid-level flow overspreads the region and dry and breezy conditions resume. However, confidence still remains too low for any probabilities given questionably dry fuels and the majority of windy conditions in the post frontal airmass when temperatures are expected to be cooler. ..Bentley.. 12/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Cool temperatures and moist fuels will be present across most of the CONUS through the week. Fine fuels in the southern High Plains will continue to dry through the period, but winds will be light for much of the week which should minimize fire weather concerns. There will be at least some increase in fire weather potential in the southern high Plains toward the end of the week as stronger mid-level flow overspreads the region and dry and breezy conditions resume. However, confidence still remains too low for any probabilities given questionably dry fuels and the majority of windy conditions in the post frontal airmass when temperatures are expected to be cooler. ..Bentley.. 12/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Cool temperatures and moist fuels will be present across most of the CONUS through the week. Fine fuels in the southern High Plains will continue to dry through the period, but winds will be light for much of the week which should minimize fire weather concerns. There will be at least some increase in fire weather potential in the southern high Plains toward the end of the week as stronger mid-level flow overspreads the region and dry and breezy conditions resume. However, confidence still remains too low for any probabilities given questionably dry fuels and the majority of windy conditions in the post frontal airmass when temperatures are expected to be cooler. ..Bentley.. 12/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST STATES INTO NORTH FL AND FAR SOUTHERN GA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of the central/ northeastern Gulf Coast into north Florida and far southern Georgia through this evening. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been extended eastward into parts of north FL and far southern GA. A small storm cluster has recently intensified across the northwest FL Peninsula, and this cluster may continue to propagate along a differential heating zone through the afternoon, with some potential for additional development. Effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support organized convection, with locally damaging wind and a brief tornado possible. Otherwise, extensive convection offshore of the northern Gulf Coast will likely continue to limit the short-term inland severe threat across southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this afternoon. However, some recovery is possible along the coast this evening prior to frontal passage, and a strong inland storm or two cannot be ruled out. Due to this potential, no changes have been made to the severe probabilities in this area, though confidence remains low. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 12/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and accompanying broad cyclonic flow aloft will progress eastward over the eastern half of the CONUS as a second, upstream shortwave over the northern Rockies begins to amplify. To the West, ridging will slowly build over the eastern Pacific, shunting stronger flow aloft northward toward the Canadian border. At the surface, a cold front was observed stretching from the Ohio Valley to the MS Delta, with a diffuse and decaying warm front located just offshore. A broad and weak wave cyclone, along the cold front, should progress northeastward reaching the upper OH River valley by 12z Sun. ...Central and northeast Gulf Coast... Morning observations show widespread precipitation and convection ongoing north of the weakening warm front across parts of eastern LA southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle. Despite relatively moist surface conditions, much of the true warm sector remains offshore. In the absence of stronger mass response from weak forcing for ascent, low-level warm air advection is expected to remain weak as the broad surface low slowly traverses along the front to the northeast. Widespread cloud debris and ongoing precipitation also strongly suggest destabilization will remain quite limited inland. Still, 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 35-45 kt of effective shear should be sufficient to support a few stronger updrafts as convection continually redevelops off the Gulf. A few of these stronger cells may eventually move inland with the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado along the immediate coast. Deep-layer shear and hodograph size should gradually decrease through the day as the warm sector becomes increasingly separated from the shortwave trough lifting away. While a few clusters of storms should persist into this evening, the severe threat should gradually wane from west to east as the cold front moves eastward. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST STATES INTO NORTH FL AND FAR SOUTHERN GA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of the central/ northeastern Gulf Coast into north Florida and far southern Georgia through this evening. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been extended eastward into parts of north FL and far southern GA. A small storm cluster has recently intensified across the northwest FL Peninsula, and this cluster may continue to propagate along a differential heating zone through the afternoon, with some potential for additional development. Effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support organized convection, with locally damaging wind and a brief tornado possible. Otherwise, extensive convection offshore of the northern Gulf Coast will likely continue to limit the short-term inland severe threat across southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this afternoon. However, some recovery is possible along the coast this evening prior to frontal passage, and a strong inland storm or two cannot be ruled out. Due to this potential, no changes have been made to the severe probabilities in this area, though confidence remains low. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 12/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and accompanying broad cyclonic flow aloft will progress eastward over the eastern half of the CONUS as a second, upstream shortwave over the northern Rockies begins to amplify. To the West, ridging will slowly build over the eastern Pacific, shunting stronger flow aloft northward toward the Canadian border. At the surface, a cold front was observed stretching from the Ohio Valley to the MS Delta, with a diffuse and decaying warm front located just offshore. A broad and weak wave cyclone, along the cold front, should progress northeastward reaching the upper OH River valley by 12z Sun. ...Central and northeast Gulf Coast... Morning observations show widespread precipitation and convection ongoing north of the weakening warm front across parts of eastern LA southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle. Despite relatively moist surface conditions, much of the true warm sector remains offshore. In the absence of stronger mass response from weak forcing for ascent, low-level warm air advection is expected to remain weak as the broad surface low slowly traverses along the front to the northeast. Widespread cloud debris and ongoing precipitation also strongly suggest destabilization will remain quite limited inland. Still, 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 35-45 kt of effective shear should be sufficient to support a few stronger updrafts as convection continually redevelops off the Gulf. A few of these stronger cells may eventually move inland with the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado along the immediate coast. Deep-layer shear and hodograph size should gradually decrease through the day as the warm sector becomes increasingly separated from the shortwave trough lifting away. While a few clusters of storms should persist into this evening, the severe threat should gradually wane from west to east as the cold front moves eastward. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST STATES INTO NORTH FL AND FAR SOUTHERN GA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of the central/ northeastern Gulf Coast into north Florida and far southern Georgia through this evening. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been extended eastward into parts of north FL and far southern GA. A small storm cluster has recently intensified across the northwest FL Peninsula, and this cluster may continue to propagate along a differential heating zone through the afternoon, with some potential for additional development. Effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support organized convection, with locally damaging wind and a brief tornado possible. Otherwise, extensive convection offshore of the northern Gulf Coast will likely continue to limit the short-term inland severe threat across southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this afternoon. However, some recovery is possible along the coast this evening prior to frontal passage, and a strong inland storm or two cannot be ruled out. Due to this potential, no changes have been made to the severe probabilities in this area, though confidence remains low. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 12/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and accompanying broad cyclonic flow aloft will progress eastward over the eastern half of the CONUS as a second, upstream shortwave over the northern Rockies begins to amplify. To the West, ridging will slowly build over the eastern Pacific, shunting stronger flow aloft northward toward the Canadian border. At the surface, a cold front was observed stretching from the Ohio Valley to the MS Delta, with a diffuse and decaying warm front located just offshore. A broad and weak wave cyclone, along the cold front, should progress northeastward reaching the upper OH River valley by 12z Sun. ...Central and northeast Gulf Coast... Morning observations show widespread precipitation and convection ongoing north of the weakening warm front across parts of eastern LA southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle. Despite relatively moist surface conditions, much of the true warm sector remains offshore. In the absence of stronger mass response from weak forcing for ascent, low-level warm air advection is expected to remain weak as the broad surface low slowly traverses along the front to the northeast. Widespread cloud debris and ongoing precipitation also strongly suggest destabilization will remain quite limited inland. Still, 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 35-45 kt of effective shear should be sufficient to support a few stronger updrafts as convection continually redevelops off the Gulf. A few of these stronger cells may eventually move inland with the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado along the immediate coast. Deep-layer shear and hodograph size should gradually decrease through the day as the warm sector becomes increasingly separated from the shortwave trough lifting away. While a few clusters of storms should persist into this evening, the severe threat should gradually wane from west to east as the cold front moves eastward. Read more