Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid-level trough will impinge on the central U.S. on Day 3/Sunday, encouraging the development and passage of a surface low across the northern Plains, with a secondary surface low also developing over the southern High Plains. Westerly downslope flow will encourage critically dry and windy surface conditions across portions of the Southern Plains, where higher Critical probabilities remain in place. From Days 4-7/Monday-Thursday, generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across the Plains, with low RH (around/below 20% by afternoon) and occasionally gusty surface winds encouraging localized wildfire-spread potential. By Thursday into Friday of next week, another surface cyclone will encourage dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. Given minimal precipitation accumulations expected through the extended term, fuels should support wildfire-spread potential late next week. The primary mitigating factor to introducing Critical probabilities for late next week is the lack of agreement among medium-range guidance members in the placement and timing of critically dry/windy conditions. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should increase to some degree later next week. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid-level trough will impinge on the central U.S. on Day 3/Sunday, encouraging the development and passage of a surface low across the northern Plains, with a secondary surface low also developing over the southern High Plains. Westerly downslope flow will encourage critically dry and windy surface conditions across portions of the Southern Plains, where higher Critical probabilities remain in place. From Days 4-7/Monday-Thursday, generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across the Plains, with low RH (around/below 20% by afternoon) and occasionally gusty surface winds encouraging localized wildfire-spread potential. By Thursday into Friday of next week, another surface cyclone will encourage dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. Given minimal precipitation accumulations expected through the extended term, fuels should support wildfire-spread potential late next week. The primary mitigating factor to introducing Critical probabilities for late next week is the lack of agreement among medium-range guidance members in the placement and timing of critically dry/windy conditions. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should increase to some degree later next week. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered storms are most likely over the Southeast, and along northern parts of the West Coast. ...20Z Update... No changes needed to the previous forecast. Scattered thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening across the Southeast states as a shortwave trough continues to move eastward through the Lower/Mid MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys. Overall storm intensity will remain limited by scant buoyancy. Isolated lightning flashes are expected to continue throughout the period from the coastal Pacific Northwest into the CA Central Valley. A few flashes remain possible across ID as well. ..Mosier.. 03/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024/ ...Southeast... A progressive upper trough will track across the OH Valley and Great Lakes regions today, with the associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms will occur ahead of the front through the day and into tonight. There is some potential for a more robust storm or two this afternoon and evening from southeast LA into the FL panhandle, where a marginally unstable surface air mass spreads onshore. However, current indications are that storms will remain below severe limits. ...Northwestern States.. Other isolated thunderstorms are expected through the forecast period along the Pacific Northwest Coast and coastal ranges and strong onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft enhance the convective threat. Finally, a few thunderstorms may occur over portions of ID as an upper trough digs into the western states. No severe storms are expected in either of these regions. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered storms are most likely over the Southeast, and along northern parts of the West Coast. ...20Z Update... No changes needed to the previous forecast. Scattered thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening across the Southeast states as a shortwave trough continues to move eastward through the Lower/Mid MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys. Overall storm intensity will remain limited by scant buoyancy. Isolated lightning flashes are expected to continue throughout the period from the coastal Pacific Northwest into the CA Central Valley. A few flashes remain possible across ID as well. ..Mosier.. 03/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024/ ...Southeast... A progressive upper trough will track across the OH Valley and Great Lakes regions today, with the associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms will occur ahead of the front through the day and into tonight. There is some potential for a more robust storm or two this afternoon and evening from southeast LA into the FL panhandle, where a marginally unstable surface air mass spreads onshore. However, current indications are that storms will remain below severe limits. ...Northwestern States.. Other isolated thunderstorms are expected through the forecast period along the Pacific Northwest Coast and coastal ranges and strong onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft enhance the convective threat. Finally, a few thunderstorms may occur over portions of ID as an upper trough digs into the western states. No severe storms are expected in either of these regions. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered storms are most likely over the Southeast, and along northern parts of the West Coast. ...20Z Update... No changes needed to the previous forecast. Scattered thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening across the Southeast states as a shortwave trough continues to move eastward through the Lower/Mid MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys. Overall storm intensity will remain limited by scant buoyancy. Isolated lightning flashes are expected to continue throughout the period from the coastal Pacific Northwest into the CA Central Valley. A few flashes remain possible across ID as well. ..Mosier.. 03/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024/ ...Southeast... A progressive upper trough will track across the OH Valley and Great Lakes regions today, with the associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms will occur ahead of the front through the day and into tonight. There is some potential for a more robust storm or two this afternoon and evening from southeast LA into the FL panhandle, where a marginally unstable surface air mass spreads onshore. However, current indications are that storms will remain below severe limits. ...Northwestern States.. Other isolated thunderstorms are expected through the forecast period along the Pacific Northwest Coast and coastal ranges and strong onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft enhance the convective threat. Finally, a few thunderstorms may occur over portions of ID as an upper trough digs into the western states. No severe storms are expected in either of these regions. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered storms are most likely over the Southeast, and along northern parts of the West Coast. ...20Z Update... No changes needed to the previous forecast. Scattered thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening across the Southeast states as a shortwave trough continues to move eastward through the Lower/Mid MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys. Overall storm intensity will remain limited by scant buoyancy. Isolated lightning flashes are expected to continue throughout the period from the coastal Pacific Northwest into the CA Central Valley. A few flashes remain possible across ID as well. ..Mosier.. 03/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024/ ...Southeast... A progressive upper trough will track across the OH Valley and Great Lakes regions today, with the associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms will occur ahead of the front through the day and into tonight. There is some potential for a more robust storm or two this afternoon and evening from southeast LA into the FL panhandle, where a marginally unstable surface air mass spreads onshore. However, current indications are that storms will remain below severe limits. ...Northwestern States.. Other isolated thunderstorms are expected through the forecast period along the Pacific Northwest Coast and coastal ranges and strong onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft enhance the convective threat. Finally, a few thunderstorms may occur over portions of ID as an upper trough digs into the western states. No severe storms are expected in either of these regions. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered storms are most likely over the Southeast, and along northern parts of the West Coast. ...20Z Update... No changes needed to the previous forecast. Scattered thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening across the Southeast states as a shortwave trough continues to move eastward through the Lower/Mid MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys. Overall storm intensity will remain limited by scant buoyancy. Isolated lightning flashes are expected to continue throughout the period from the coastal Pacific Northwest into the CA Central Valley. A few flashes remain possible across ID as well. ..Mosier.. 03/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024/ ...Southeast... A progressive upper trough will track across the OH Valley and Great Lakes regions today, with the associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms will occur ahead of the front through the day and into tonight. There is some potential for a more robust storm or two this afternoon and evening from southeast LA into the FL panhandle, where a marginally unstable surface air mass spreads onshore. However, current indications are that storms will remain below severe limits. ...Northwestern States.. Other isolated thunderstorms are expected through the forecast period along the Pacific Northwest Coast and coastal ranges and strong onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft enhance the convective threat. Finally, a few thunderstorms may occur over portions of ID as an upper trough digs into the western states. No severe storms are expected in either of these regions. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track. The only changes made to the current forecast were to expand Elevated highlights farther south into Far West Texas, with expansions also made farther east into northwestern Oklahoma. Critical highlights were also expanded farther north into eastern Colorado, and farther east into western Kansas. Expansions were made to reflect the latest guidance consensus in dry and windy conditions supporting wildfire spread tomorrow/Saturday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the western CONUS, with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft crossing the Rockies during the afternoon. At the same time, a lee surface cyclone will rapidly deepen over the northern High Plains, while a lee trough and tight surface pressure gradient develop southward along the central/southern High Plains. This evolution will lead to a large area of strong/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and low RH across much of the High Plains, where elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Strong downslope flow and deep boundary-layer mixing across the central/southern High Plains will support an expansive area of 10-percent minimum RH and temperatures in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s despite increasing high-level clouds ahead of the large-scale trough. Here, the tightening surface pressure gradient and mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor widespread 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given drying of fine fuels across the region on D1/Friday, Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of eastern CO, northeast NM, the TX/OK Panhandles, far western OK, and far southwest KS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track. The only changes made to the current forecast were to expand Elevated highlights farther south into Far West Texas, with expansions also made farther east into northwestern Oklahoma. Critical highlights were also expanded farther north into eastern Colorado, and farther east into western Kansas. Expansions were made to reflect the latest guidance consensus in dry and windy conditions supporting wildfire spread tomorrow/Saturday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the western CONUS, with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft crossing the Rockies during the afternoon. At the same time, a lee surface cyclone will rapidly deepen over the northern High Plains, while a lee trough and tight surface pressure gradient develop southward along the central/southern High Plains. This evolution will lead to a large area of strong/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and low RH across much of the High Plains, where elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Strong downslope flow and deep boundary-layer mixing across the central/southern High Plains will support an expansive area of 10-percent minimum RH and temperatures in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s despite increasing high-level clouds ahead of the large-scale trough. Here, the tightening surface pressure gradient and mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor widespread 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given drying of fine fuels across the region on D1/Friday, Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of eastern CO, northeast NM, the TX/OK Panhandles, far western OK, and far southwest KS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track. The only changes made to the current forecast were to expand Elevated highlights farther south into Far West Texas, with expansions also made farther east into northwestern Oklahoma. Critical highlights were also expanded farther north into eastern Colorado, and farther east into western Kansas. Expansions were made to reflect the latest guidance consensus in dry and windy conditions supporting wildfire spread tomorrow/Saturday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the western CONUS, with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft crossing the Rockies during the afternoon. At the same time, a lee surface cyclone will rapidly deepen over the northern High Plains, while a lee trough and tight surface pressure gradient develop southward along the central/southern High Plains. This evolution will lead to a large area of strong/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and low RH across much of the High Plains, where elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Strong downslope flow and deep boundary-layer mixing across the central/southern High Plains will support an expansive area of 10-percent minimum RH and temperatures in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s despite increasing high-level clouds ahead of the large-scale trough. Here, the tightening surface pressure gradient and mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor widespread 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given drying of fine fuels across the region on D1/Friday, Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of eastern CO, northeast NM, the TX/OK Panhandles, far western OK, and far southwest KS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States during the day on Saturday. Surface low associated with this shortwave will likely be over central NC early Saturday before then moving northeastward in tandem with its parent wave and ending the period just off the southern New England coast. Cold front attendant to this surface low will likely stretch back westward across southern GA and the western FL Panhandle early Saturday before gradually shifting southeastward and becoming increasingly diffuse with time. Isolated thunderstorms are possible within the warm-air advection zone near the low over coastal NC Friday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are also expected in the vicinity of the front from southern GA and the FL Panhandle through the FL Peninsula. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move from the central Gulf of Mexico through northern FL Saturday evening into Sunday morning, helping to foster additional thunderstorm development behind the primary frontal zone throughout the evening. In all of these cases, limited buoyancy and weak vertical shear should mitigate the severe thunderstorm potential. Broad upper troughing is expected to deepen across the western CONUS while an embedded shortwave trough progresses within its base from central CA across the Great Basin and central Rockies. Despite relatively cool surface conditions, very cold mid-level temperatures associated with this trough will support steep lapse rates and limited buoyancy, mostly from the Pacific Northwest coast and over the Sacramento Valley. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible throughout the period in these areas. Additionally, a few updrafts may become deep enough along the frontal band as it moves through the Great Basin to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 03/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States during the day on Saturday. Surface low associated with this shortwave will likely be over central NC early Saturday before then moving northeastward in tandem with its parent wave and ending the period just off the southern New England coast. Cold front attendant to this surface low will likely stretch back westward across southern GA and the western FL Panhandle early Saturday before gradually shifting southeastward and becoming increasingly diffuse with time. Isolated thunderstorms are possible within the warm-air advection zone near the low over coastal NC Friday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are also expected in the vicinity of the front from southern GA and the FL Panhandle through the FL Peninsula. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move from the central Gulf of Mexico through northern FL Saturday evening into Sunday morning, helping to foster additional thunderstorm development behind the primary frontal zone throughout the evening. In all of these cases, limited buoyancy and weak vertical shear should mitigate the severe thunderstorm potential. Broad upper troughing is expected to deepen across the western CONUS while an embedded shortwave trough progresses within its base from central CA across the Great Basin and central Rockies. Despite relatively cool surface conditions, very cold mid-level temperatures associated with this trough will support steep lapse rates and limited buoyancy, mostly from the Pacific Northwest coast and over the Sacramento Valley. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible throughout the period in these areas. Additionally, a few updrafts may become deep enough along the frontal band as it moves through the Great Basin to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 03/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered storms are most likely over the Southeast, and along northern parts of the West Coast. ...Southeast... A progressive upper trough will track across the OH Valley and Great Lakes regions today, with the associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms will occur ahead of the front through the day and into tonight. There is some potential for a more robust storm or two this afternoon and evening from southeast LA into the FL panhandle, where a marginally unstable surface air mass spreads onshore. However, current indications are that storms will remain below severe limits. ...Northwestern States.. Other isolated thunderstorms are expected through the forecast period along the Pacific Northwest Coast and coastal ranges and strong onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft enhance the convective threat. Finally, a few thunderstorms may occur over portions of ID as an upper trough digs into the western states. No severe storms are expected in either of these regions. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/01/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Recent precipitation accumulations across the TX Panhandle vicinity will limit wildfire-spread potential today to some degree. However, the anticipated dry and breezy conditions this afternoon will encourage the priming of fuels, which may support significant wildfire-spread potential this weekend. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a large-scale trough moving ashore over the West Coast, strengthening west-southwesterly midlevel flow will impinge on the Rockies, favoring a deepening lee trough over the High Plains. This pattern will favor a few areas of dry/breezy conditions along the High Plains during the afternoon. Over portions of eastern WY into western SD/NE, a belt of breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will develop along the southern periphery of a weak lee cyclone, and these winds could briefly overlap 20-30 percent afternoon RH. While locally elevated conditions are possible here, the overlap of breezy winds and low RH appears too brief/marginal for highlights given marginally receptive fuels. Farther south, breezy/gusty westerly surface winds are expected to coincide with 10-15 percent minimum RH along the central and southern High Plains. For the central High Plains, locally elevated conditions are possible along the I-25 corridor (especially in the gap-flow areas), though these conditions should remain too localized for Elevated highlights. From eastern NM into West TX, a larger area of Elevated meteorological conditions are expected, though recent measurable snowfall should mitigate the fire-weather threat in the short-term -- precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Fire weather concerns will peak this weekend in parts of the southern High Plains with adjacent portions of the central/southern Plains also seeing some degree of fire weather risk. The primary feature of interest will be a broad, low-amplitude trough in the West that will eventually lift northward by next week. Model variability is relatively high even beginning next Monday. However, fire weather concerns do appear to be less during next week and are not likely to increase until the next trough nears the Plains, which may not occur until late next week. ...Portions of Central/Southern Plains... Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest this weekend in parts of the southern High Plains. Recent snowfall has occurred in parts of eastern New Mexico into West Texas. While short term fuel dryness will be reduced, dry and windy conditions will occur beginning Friday and increase on Saturday and Sunday. Critical meteorological conditions appear likely on Saturday, but until certainty in fuel dryness after snow melt can be assessed probabilities will not be increased. Northern portions of the Texas Panhandle look to have observed much less precipitation making Critical conditions more likely in that area. Sunday will see similar conditions to Saturday. Fuels should have dried sufficiently from Saturday conditions to allow for greater Critical fire weather potential. Critical conditions on Sunday could extend into the Permian Basin, but confidence farther south away from the stronger 850/500 mb winds is lower. Model guidance already significantly diverges by Monday. The ECMWF shows a very flat trough lifting north while the GFS develops a secondary shortwave that pivots into the Southwest. The GFS solution would bring an additional day of critical fire weather for the southern High Plains. However, the GFS solution appears to be an outlier given its own high run-to-run variability and in comparison to the much more consistent signals in the ECMWF. ..Wendt.. 02/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 29 20:28:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Feb 29 20:28:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...20Z Update... ...Central/East TX/Arklatex into the Lower MS Valley... Isolated thunderstorms have recently developed over central TX and the general expectation is for gradually increasing thunderstorm coverage as the shortwave trough continues eastward this evening and overnight. Stable conditions will persist at the surface, but there is expected to be enough elevated buoyancy for a few stronger updrafts, particularly from central East TX into central and southern LA. Some small hail could occur within these stronger updrafts, but overall coverage is forecast to remain low. ..Mosier.. 02/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024/ ...Northwest States... Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight in vicinity of the Pacific Northwest coast, and along a cold front moving across ID. Activity is expected to be low-topped and weak. ...ArkLaTex Region... A southern-stream shortwave trough over NM will continue tracking eastward, enhancing low-level warm advection across areas from TX/OK eastward into the lower MS valley. Forecast soundings suggest weak but sufficient CAPE for isolated thunderstorms across the region through tonight. Some small hail is possible over east TX and southern LA late tonight, but no severe storms are currently anticipated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...20Z Update... ...Central/East TX/Arklatex into the Lower MS Valley... Isolated thunderstorms have recently developed over central TX and the general expectation is for gradually increasing thunderstorm coverage as the shortwave trough continues eastward this evening and overnight. Stable conditions will persist at the surface, but there is expected to be enough elevated buoyancy for a few stronger updrafts, particularly from central East TX into central and southern LA. Some small hail could occur within these stronger updrafts, but overall coverage is forecast to remain low. ..Mosier.. 02/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024/ ...Northwest States... Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight in vicinity of the Pacific Northwest coast, and along a cold front moving across ID. Activity is expected to be low-topped and weak. ...ArkLaTex Region... A southern-stream shortwave trough over NM will continue tracking eastward, enhancing low-level warm advection across areas from TX/OK eastward into the lower MS valley. Forecast soundings suggest weak but sufficient CAPE for isolated thunderstorms across the region through tonight. Some small hail is possible over east TX and southern LA late tonight, but no severe storms are currently anticipated. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z Widespread Elevated conditions within parts of east-central New Mexico into the adjacent Texas Panhandle/South Plains is less likely than previously forecast. Local reports of 2-4 inches of snow suggest that fuel dryness will be mitigated at least in the short term. Dry, downslope winds are still expected and could lead to locally Elevated conditions along the fringes of the snowfall. Another area of locally Elevated conditions may develop near a weak surface low in the WY/SD/NE border region. RH falling to critical levels is quite uncertain and some recent snow melt has occurred as well. Confidence in fire risk is too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 02/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak upper low over the southern Plains will continue eastward Friday with strong flow aloft trailing behind it over the southern Rockies/High Plains. At the same time a second Pacific trough will begin to move onshore with strong southwest flow. In the wake of the upper low, surface winds across the West should begin to slowly increase in response to the stronger flow aloft. Periods of dry and breezy conditions are possible Friday across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ...Eastern NM and the TX Panhandle... As the upper low over the southern Plains departs, flow aloft will gradually turn westerly ahead of the advancing Pacific system. Winds aloft are forecast to gradually strengthen through the day, with 40-50 kt of flow over the southern Rockies likely by the afternoon. Aided by a deepening lee trough, 15-20 mph of westerly downslope flow is expected over parts of eastern NM into the western TX Panhandle. Despite some recent light precipitation, this area has remained largely devoid of meaningful rain/snow in the past several weeks. Warm temperatures and downslope drying should continue to support a very dry air mass with minimum RH values of 15-20% and poor overnight recoveries. Rapid fuel drying has occurred in the last few days with unusually warm temperatures and a recent uptick in fire activity. Widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible Friday afternoon cross parts of eastern NM and West TX. Localized fire-weather concerns may also increase farther north across parts of eastern CO, though confidence in sustained dry and windy conditions here is lower. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more