Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... Gradual clearing and warming is taking place ahead of the cold front and deepening surface low, with destabilization spreading north toward the OH River. Cells developing over eastern KY into WV may increase in intensity over the next few hours, and move north/northeast toward OH and western PA eventually. Low-level shear remains favorable for a weak tornado risk with the strongest cells along with a few damaging gusts. See mesoscale discussion 422 for more information. Farther south, a few storms remain over central FL, with isolated severe storms still possible. For more information see mesoscale discussion 423. ..Jewell.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... Gradual clearing and warming is taking place ahead of the cold front and deepening surface low, with destabilization spreading north toward the OH River. Cells developing over eastern KY into WV may increase in intensity over the next few hours, and move north/northeast toward OH and western PA eventually. Low-level shear remains favorable for a weak tornado risk with the strongest cells along with a few damaging gusts. See mesoscale discussion 422 for more information. Farther south, a few storms remain over central FL, with isolated severe storms still possible. For more information see mesoscale discussion 423. ..Jewell.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... Gradual clearing and warming is taking place ahead of the cold front and deepening surface low, with destabilization spreading north toward the OH River. Cells developing over eastern KY into WV may increase in intensity over the next few hours, and move north/northeast toward OH and western PA eventually. Low-level shear remains favorable for a weak tornado risk with the strongest cells along with a few damaging gusts. See mesoscale discussion 422 for more information. Farther south, a few storms remain over central FL, with isolated severe storms still possible. For more information see mesoscale discussion 423. ..Jewell.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... Gradual clearing and warming is taking place ahead of the cold front and deepening surface low, with destabilization spreading north toward the OH River. Cells developing over eastern KY into WV may increase in intensity over the next few hours, and move north/northeast toward OH and western PA eventually. Low-level shear remains favorable for a weak tornado risk with the strongest cells along with a few damaging gusts. See mesoscale discussion 422 for more information. Farther south, a few storms remain over central FL, with isolated severe storms still possible. For more information see mesoscale discussion 423. ..Jewell.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... Gradual clearing and warming is taking place ahead of the cold front and deepening surface low, with destabilization spreading north toward the OH River. Cells developing over eastern KY into WV may increase in intensity over the next few hours, and move north/northeast toward OH and western PA eventually. Low-level shear remains favorable for a weak tornado risk with the strongest cells along with a few damaging gusts. See mesoscale discussion 422 for more information. Farther south, a few storms remain over central FL, with isolated severe storms still possible. For more information see mesoscale discussion 423. ..Jewell.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... Gradual clearing and warming is taking place ahead of the cold front and deepening surface low, with destabilization spreading north toward the OH River. Cells developing over eastern KY into WV may increase in intensity over the next few hours, and move north/northeast toward OH and western PA eventually. Low-level shear remains favorable for a weak tornado risk with the strongest cells along with a few damaging gusts. See mesoscale discussion 422 for more information. Farther south, a few storms remain over central FL, with isolated severe storms still possible. For more information see mesoscale discussion 423. ..Jewell.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Minor adjustments were made to the D2 Elevated to expand it further west into central New Mexico in accordance with latest trends in guidance. Localized critical fire weather will be possible in the lee of the high terrain across central and northeastern New Mexico. This is well supported in 12z HREF conditional probabilities. The overall spatial extent of this threat does not warrant inclusion of a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the Southwest and southern High Plains on Friday afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will most likely be focused across parts of New Mexico and the OK/TX Panhandles where the best overlap of fire weather conditions and receptive fuels is anticipated. Surface high pressure is forecast to shift from the central Plains into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the approach of an upper wave off the southern CA coast will lead to broad surface pressure falls across the southern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, resulting in breezy pressure gradient winds. ...New Mexico and adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandles... Latest guidance continues to show a signal for 15-20 mph winds across a broad swath of eastern NM and west TX. Low-level trajectories emanating off the terrain of northern Mexico, combined with a recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf, should maintain dry conditions across the southern High Plains with RH values in the 10-20% range. Elevated conditions are expected with localized critical conditions possible Friday afternoon. Despite the potential for widespread fire weather conditions, the risk area is confined to locations that have not seen wetting rainfall over the past few days (and hence should have the most receptive fuels). Based on recent fuel analyses, ERCs further west into the Southwest/Great Basin are near/below the 50th percentile, which precludes a more widespread risk area (though fuel trends will be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Minor adjustments were made to the D2 Elevated to expand it further west into central New Mexico in accordance with latest trends in guidance. Localized critical fire weather will be possible in the lee of the high terrain across central and northeastern New Mexico. This is well supported in 12z HREF conditional probabilities. The overall spatial extent of this threat does not warrant inclusion of a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the Southwest and southern High Plains on Friday afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will most likely be focused across parts of New Mexico and the OK/TX Panhandles where the best overlap of fire weather conditions and receptive fuels is anticipated. Surface high pressure is forecast to shift from the central Plains into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the approach of an upper wave off the southern CA coast will lead to broad surface pressure falls across the southern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, resulting in breezy pressure gradient winds. ...New Mexico and adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandles... Latest guidance continues to show a signal for 15-20 mph winds across a broad swath of eastern NM and west TX. Low-level trajectories emanating off the terrain of northern Mexico, combined with a recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf, should maintain dry conditions across the southern High Plains with RH values in the 10-20% range. Elevated conditions are expected with localized critical conditions possible Friday afternoon. Despite the potential for widespread fire weather conditions, the risk area is confined to locations that have not seen wetting rainfall over the past few days (and hence should have the most receptive fuels). Based on recent fuel analyses, ERCs further west into the Southwest/Great Basin are near/below the 50th percentile, which precludes a more widespread risk area (though fuel trends will be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Minor adjustments were made to the D2 Elevated to expand it further west into central New Mexico in accordance with latest trends in guidance. Localized critical fire weather will be possible in the lee of the high terrain across central and northeastern New Mexico. This is well supported in 12z HREF conditional probabilities. The overall spatial extent of this threat does not warrant inclusion of a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the Southwest and southern High Plains on Friday afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will most likely be focused across parts of New Mexico and the OK/TX Panhandles where the best overlap of fire weather conditions and receptive fuels is anticipated. Surface high pressure is forecast to shift from the central Plains into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the approach of an upper wave off the southern CA coast will lead to broad surface pressure falls across the southern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, resulting in breezy pressure gradient winds. ...New Mexico and adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandles... Latest guidance continues to show a signal for 15-20 mph winds across a broad swath of eastern NM and west TX. Low-level trajectories emanating off the terrain of northern Mexico, combined with a recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf, should maintain dry conditions across the southern High Plains with RH values in the 10-20% range. Elevated conditions are expected with localized critical conditions possible Friday afternoon. Despite the potential for widespread fire weather conditions, the risk area is confined to locations that have not seen wetting rainfall over the past few days (and hence should have the most receptive fuels). Based on recent fuel analyses, ERCs further west into the Southwest/Great Basin are near/below the 50th percentile, which precludes a more widespread risk area (though fuel trends will be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Minor adjustments were made to the D2 Elevated to expand it further west into central New Mexico in accordance with latest trends in guidance. Localized critical fire weather will be possible in the lee of the high terrain across central and northeastern New Mexico. This is well supported in 12z HREF conditional probabilities. The overall spatial extent of this threat does not warrant inclusion of a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the Southwest and southern High Plains on Friday afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will most likely be focused across parts of New Mexico and the OK/TX Panhandles where the best overlap of fire weather conditions and receptive fuels is anticipated. Surface high pressure is forecast to shift from the central Plains into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the approach of an upper wave off the southern CA coast will lead to broad surface pressure falls across the southern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, resulting in breezy pressure gradient winds. ...New Mexico and adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandles... Latest guidance continues to show a signal for 15-20 mph winds across a broad swath of eastern NM and west TX. Low-level trajectories emanating off the terrain of northern Mexico, combined with a recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf, should maintain dry conditions across the southern High Plains with RH values in the 10-20% range. Elevated conditions are expected with localized critical conditions possible Friday afternoon. Despite the potential for widespread fire weather conditions, the risk area is confined to locations that have not seen wetting rainfall over the past few days (and hence should have the most receptive fuels). Based on recent fuel analyses, ERCs further west into the Southwest/Great Basin are near/below the 50th percentile, which precludes a more widespread risk area (though fuel trends will be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Minor adjustments were made to the D2 Elevated to expand it further west into central New Mexico in accordance with latest trends in guidance. Localized critical fire weather will be possible in the lee of the high terrain across central and northeastern New Mexico. This is well supported in 12z HREF conditional probabilities. The overall spatial extent of this threat does not warrant inclusion of a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the Southwest and southern High Plains on Friday afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will most likely be focused across parts of New Mexico and the OK/TX Panhandles where the best overlap of fire weather conditions and receptive fuels is anticipated. Surface high pressure is forecast to shift from the central Plains into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the approach of an upper wave off the southern CA coast will lead to broad surface pressure falls across the southern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, resulting in breezy pressure gradient winds. ...New Mexico and adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandles... Latest guidance continues to show a signal for 15-20 mph winds across a broad swath of eastern NM and west TX. Low-level trajectories emanating off the terrain of northern Mexico, combined with a recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf, should maintain dry conditions across the southern High Plains with RH values in the 10-20% range. Elevated conditions are expected with localized critical conditions possible Friday afternoon. Despite the potential for widespread fire weather conditions, the risk area is confined to locations that have not seen wetting rainfall over the past few days (and hence should have the most receptive fuels). Based on recent fuel analyses, ERCs further west into the Southwest/Great Basin are near/below the 50th percentile, which precludes a more widespread risk area (though fuel trends will be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Minor adjustments were made to the D2 Elevated to expand it further west into central New Mexico in accordance with latest trends in guidance. Localized critical fire weather will be possible in the lee of the high terrain across central and northeastern New Mexico. This is well supported in 12z HREF conditional probabilities. The overall spatial extent of this threat does not warrant inclusion of a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the Southwest and southern High Plains on Friday afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will most likely be focused across parts of New Mexico and the OK/TX Panhandles where the best overlap of fire weather conditions and receptive fuels is anticipated. Surface high pressure is forecast to shift from the central Plains into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the approach of an upper wave off the southern CA coast will lead to broad surface pressure falls across the southern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, resulting in breezy pressure gradient winds. ...New Mexico and adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandles... Latest guidance continues to show a signal for 15-20 mph winds across a broad swath of eastern NM and west TX. Low-level trajectories emanating off the terrain of northern Mexico, combined with a recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf, should maintain dry conditions across the southern High Plains with RH values in the 10-20% range. Elevated conditions are expected with localized critical conditions possible Friday afternoon. Despite the potential for widespread fire weather conditions, the risk area is confined to locations that have not seen wetting rainfall over the past few days (and hence should have the most receptive fuels). Based on recent fuel analyses, ERCs further west into the Southwest/Great Basin are near/below the 50th percentile, which precludes a more widespread risk area (though fuel trends will be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Minor adjustments were made to the D2 Elevated to expand it further west into central New Mexico in accordance with latest trends in guidance. Localized critical fire weather will be possible in the lee of the high terrain across central and northeastern New Mexico. This is well supported in 12z HREF conditional probabilities. The overall spatial extent of this threat does not warrant inclusion of a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the Southwest and southern High Plains on Friday afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will most likely be focused across parts of New Mexico and the OK/TX Panhandles where the best overlap of fire weather conditions and receptive fuels is anticipated. Surface high pressure is forecast to shift from the central Plains into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the approach of an upper wave off the southern CA coast will lead to broad surface pressure falls across the southern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, resulting in breezy pressure gradient winds. ...New Mexico and adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandles... Latest guidance continues to show a signal for 15-20 mph winds across a broad swath of eastern NM and west TX. Low-level trajectories emanating off the terrain of northern Mexico, combined with a recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf, should maintain dry conditions across the southern High Plains with RH values in the 10-20% range. Elevated conditions are expected with localized critical conditions possible Friday afternoon. Despite the potential for widespread fire weather conditions, the risk area is confined to locations that have not seen wetting rainfall over the past few days (and hence should have the most receptive fuels). Based on recent fuel analyses, ERCs further west into the Southwest/Great Basin are near/below the 50th percentile, which precludes a more widespread risk area (though fuel trends will be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Minor adjustments were made to the D2 Elevated to expand it further west into central New Mexico in accordance with latest trends in guidance. Localized critical fire weather will be possible in the lee of the high terrain across central and northeastern New Mexico. This is well supported in 12z HREF conditional probabilities. The overall spatial extent of this threat does not warrant inclusion of a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the Southwest and southern High Plains on Friday afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will most likely be focused across parts of New Mexico and the OK/TX Panhandles where the best overlap of fire weather conditions and receptive fuels is anticipated. Surface high pressure is forecast to shift from the central Plains into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the approach of an upper wave off the southern CA coast will lead to broad surface pressure falls across the southern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, resulting in breezy pressure gradient winds. ...New Mexico and adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandles... Latest guidance continues to show a signal for 15-20 mph winds across a broad swath of eastern NM and west TX. Low-level trajectories emanating off the terrain of northern Mexico, combined with a recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf, should maintain dry conditions across the southern High Plains with RH values in the 10-20% range. Elevated conditions are expected with localized critical conditions possible Friday afternoon. Despite the potential for widespread fire weather conditions, the risk area is confined to locations that have not seen wetting rainfall over the past few days (and hence should have the most receptive fuels). Based on recent fuel analyses, ERCs further west into the Southwest/Great Basin are near/below the 50th percentile, which precludes a more widespread risk area (though fuel trends will be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Minor adjustments were made to the D2 Elevated to expand it further west into central New Mexico in accordance with latest trends in guidance. Localized critical fire weather will be possible in the lee of the high terrain across central and northeastern New Mexico. This is well supported in 12z HREF conditional probabilities. The overall spatial extent of this threat does not warrant inclusion of a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the Southwest and southern High Plains on Friday afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will most likely be focused across parts of New Mexico and the OK/TX Panhandles where the best overlap of fire weather conditions and receptive fuels is anticipated. Surface high pressure is forecast to shift from the central Plains into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the approach of an upper wave off the southern CA coast will lead to broad surface pressure falls across the southern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, resulting in breezy pressure gradient winds. ...New Mexico and adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandles... Latest guidance continues to show a signal for 15-20 mph winds across a broad swath of eastern NM and west TX. Low-level trajectories emanating off the terrain of northern Mexico, combined with a recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf, should maintain dry conditions across the southern High Plains with RH values in the 10-20% range. Elevated conditions are expected with localized critical conditions possible Friday afternoon. Despite the potential for widespread fire weather conditions, the risk area is confined to locations that have not seen wetting rainfall over the past few days (and hence should have the most receptive fuels). Based on recent fuel analyses, ERCs further west into the Southwest/Great Basin are near/below the 50th percentile, which precludes a more widespread risk area (though fuel trends will be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Minor adjustments were made to the D2 Elevated to expand it further west into central New Mexico in accordance with latest trends in guidance. Localized critical fire weather will be possible in the lee of the high terrain across central and northeastern New Mexico. This is well supported in 12z HREF conditional probabilities. The overall spatial extent of this threat does not warrant inclusion of a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the Southwest and southern High Plains on Friday afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will most likely be focused across parts of New Mexico and the OK/TX Panhandles where the best overlap of fire weather conditions and receptive fuels is anticipated. Surface high pressure is forecast to shift from the central Plains into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the approach of an upper wave off the southern CA coast will lead to broad surface pressure falls across the southern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, resulting in breezy pressure gradient winds. ...New Mexico and adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandles... Latest guidance continues to show a signal for 15-20 mph winds across a broad swath of eastern NM and west TX. Low-level trajectories emanating off the terrain of northern Mexico, combined with a recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf, should maintain dry conditions across the southern High Plains with RH values in the 10-20% range. Elevated conditions are expected with localized critical conditions possible Friday afternoon. Despite the potential for widespread fire weather conditions, the risk area is confined to locations that have not seen wetting rainfall over the past few days (and hence should have the most receptive fuels). Based on recent fuel analyses, ERCs further west into the Southwest/Great Basin are near/below the 50th percentile, which precludes a more widespread risk area (though fuel trends will be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Minor adjustments were made to the D2 Elevated to expand it further west into central New Mexico in accordance with latest trends in guidance. Localized critical fire weather will be possible in the lee of the high terrain across central and northeastern New Mexico. This is well supported in 12z HREF conditional probabilities. The overall spatial extent of this threat does not warrant inclusion of a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the Southwest and southern High Plains on Friday afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will most likely be focused across parts of New Mexico and the OK/TX Panhandles where the best overlap of fire weather conditions and receptive fuels is anticipated. Surface high pressure is forecast to shift from the central Plains into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the approach of an upper wave off the southern CA coast will lead to broad surface pressure falls across the southern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, resulting in breezy pressure gradient winds. ...New Mexico and adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandles... Latest guidance continues to show a signal for 15-20 mph winds across a broad swath of eastern NM and west TX. Low-level trajectories emanating off the terrain of northern Mexico, combined with a recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf, should maintain dry conditions across the southern High Plains with RH values in the 10-20% range. Elevated conditions are expected with localized critical conditions possible Friday afternoon. Despite the potential for widespread fire weather conditions, the risk area is confined to locations that have not seen wetting rainfall over the past few days (and hence should have the most receptive fuels). Based on recent fuel analyses, ERCs further west into the Southwest/Great Basin are near/below the 50th percentile, which precludes a more widespread risk area (though fuel trends will be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0422 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO EXTREME WESTERN VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0422 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Areas affected...portions of northeast Tennessee and eastern Kentucky into extreme western Virginia and western West Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 111754Z - 112000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat should gradually increase into the afternoon and with northern extent. The stronger, longer-lasting storms will be capable of large hail and damaging gusts, with a tornado or two possible farther north into KY/WV where low-level shear is stronger. DISCUSSION...Pockets of surface heating, amid widespread clouds and ongoing showers and thunderstorms, is supporting surface temperatures rising into the mid 60s to 70 F amid upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. The surface heating is allowing for the steepening of low-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 500 J/kg in spots. Meanwhile, the approach of a longer-wave mid-level trough is promoting continued deep-layer ascent across the region, that in tandem with deep-layer shear, should only increase with time. As such, the increasing intensity and coverage of storms will be gradual this afternoon, and will be dependent on continued destabilization over eastern portions of the OH Valley. Initial storms may produce gusty winds and hail across northeast TN into eastern KY. However, as storms potentially intensify into the afternoon hours, damaging gusts will become a greater concern as storms move into northeast KY into WV. Given larger, curved low-level hodographs driven by backed flow, the best chance for any tornado development will also be in the northeast KY/WV area later this afternoon. As such, overall greater WW issuance possibilities increase with northward extent this afternoon. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX... LAT...LON 36258528 37468432 38408310 38718199 38558157 38178134 37688177 36888256 36408301 36128352 35668416 36258528 Read more

MD 0423 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 104... FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0423 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Areas affected...central Florida Concerning...Tornado Watch 104... Valid 111754Z - 111930Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 104 continues. SUMMARY...Potential for gusty winds and a brief tornado may continue locally over the next couple of hours, but new WW issuance is not anticipated. Local WW extensions may be needed for a short time, to cover any lingering threat beyond the scheduled 11/19Z expiration of WW 104. DISCUSSION...Strong storms continue crossing central portions of the Florida Peninsula at this time, within a band extending from north of Daytona Beach to near Sarasota. Storms have shown an overall, gradual decrease in organization, in part likely due to low-level veering of the winds ahead of the band. With little in the way of additional destabilization anticipated ahead of the convection, steady or gradually decreasing severe-weather potential seems likely. Still, a locally stronger storm or two will remain capable of producing a damaging gust or brief tornado this afternoon. ..Goss.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 27478254 28708176 29618148 29848082 29488066 28758069 27708162 27478254 Read more

MD 0421 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 104... FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0421 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Areas affected...central Florida Concerning...Tornado Watch 104... Valid 111645Z - 111845Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 104 continues. SUMMARY...Severe/isolated tornado risk continues across WW 104. DISCUSSION...As prior severe convection shifts offshore over northeastern Florida, focus for severe weather is reorienting southwestward across north-central and west-central portions of the Peninsula. Here, a band of storms -- including embedded rotating cells -- continues moving inland across the greater Tampa area, where embedded/somewhat transient low-level circulations have been observed via KTBW WSR-88D storm-relative velocity. As modest heating is being hindered by deeper cloud cover, weak/additional destabilization should continue to support stronger storms, which will continue spreading west-to-east across central Florida. Locally damaging wind gusts, and a couple of brief tornadoes, will continue to accompany these storms. ..Goss.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 27678310 28958227 29498178 29688085 29128051 27838193 27488282 27678310 Read more