Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will move eastward across the western CONUS, with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft impinging on the Rockies during the afternoon hours. In response, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen as it tracks slowly eastward across the northern Plains, while a deepening lee trough and tightening surface pressure gradient develop southward across much of the central and southern Plains. This large-scale pattern will result in an expansive area of warm, dry, and windy conditions across the central/southern High Plains, leading to a large area of elevated to high-end critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central and Southern High Plains... The strong deep-layer west-southwesterlies will support robust downslope warming/drying across the central and southern High Plains, where upper 60s to lower/middle 70s temperatures and 5-10 percent minimum RH is expected during the afternoon. At the same time, the tightening surface pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor an expansive area of 25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 40 mph). Over the I-25 corridor, gusts could reach 50-60 mph, though RH will be slightly higher compared to areas farther east over the Plains. Given mostly receptive fuels across the central and southern High Plains, high-end critical fire-weather conditions are expected -- with the most volatile fire-weather conditions expected over portions of southern CO, northeast NM, and the TX Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will move eastward across the western CONUS, with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft impinging on the Rockies during the afternoon hours. In response, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen as it tracks slowly eastward across the northern Plains, while a deepening lee trough and tightening surface pressure gradient develop southward across much of the central and southern Plains. This large-scale pattern will result in an expansive area of warm, dry, and windy conditions across the central/southern High Plains, leading to a large area of elevated to high-end critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central and Southern High Plains... The strong deep-layer west-southwesterlies will support robust downslope warming/drying across the central and southern High Plains, where upper 60s to lower/middle 70s temperatures and 5-10 percent minimum RH is expected during the afternoon. At the same time, the tightening surface pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor an expansive area of 25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 40 mph). Over the I-25 corridor, gusts could reach 50-60 mph, though RH will be slightly higher compared to areas farther east over the Plains. Given mostly receptive fuels across the central and southern High Plains, high-end critical fire-weather conditions are expected -- with the most volatile fire-weather conditions expected over portions of southern CO, northeast NM, and the TX Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will move eastward across the western CONUS, with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft impinging on the Rockies during the afternoon hours. In response, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen as it tracks slowly eastward across the northern Plains, while a deepening lee trough and tightening surface pressure gradient develop southward across much of the central and southern Plains. This large-scale pattern will result in an expansive area of warm, dry, and windy conditions across the central/southern High Plains, leading to a large area of elevated to high-end critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central and Southern High Plains... The strong deep-layer west-southwesterlies will support robust downslope warming/drying across the central and southern High Plains, where upper 60s to lower/middle 70s temperatures and 5-10 percent minimum RH is expected during the afternoon. At the same time, the tightening surface pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor an expansive area of 25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 40 mph). Over the I-25 corridor, gusts could reach 50-60 mph, though RH will be slightly higher compared to areas farther east over the Plains. Given mostly receptive fuels across the central and southern High Plains, high-end critical fire-weather conditions are expected -- with the most volatile fire-weather conditions expected over portions of southern CO, northeast NM, and the TX Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will move eastward across the western CONUS, with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft impinging on the Rockies during the afternoon hours. In response, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen as it tracks slowly eastward across the northern Plains, while a deepening lee trough and tightening surface pressure gradient develop southward across much of the central and southern Plains. This large-scale pattern will result in an expansive area of warm, dry, and windy conditions across the central/southern High Plains, leading to a large area of elevated to high-end critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central and Southern High Plains... The strong deep-layer west-southwesterlies will support robust downslope warming/drying across the central and southern High Plains, where upper 60s to lower/middle 70s temperatures and 5-10 percent minimum RH is expected during the afternoon. At the same time, the tightening surface pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor an expansive area of 25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 40 mph). Over the I-25 corridor, gusts could reach 50-60 mph, though RH will be slightly higher compared to areas farther east over the Plains. Given mostly receptive fuels across the central and southern High Plains, high-end critical fire-weather conditions are expected -- with the most volatile fire-weather conditions expected over portions of southern CO, northeast NM, and the TX Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will move eastward across the western CONUS, with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft impinging on the Rockies during the afternoon hours. In response, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen as it tracks slowly eastward across the northern Plains, while a deepening lee trough and tightening surface pressure gradient develop southward across much of the central and southern Plains. This large-scale pattern will result in an expansive area of warm, dry, and windy conditions across the central/southern High Plains, leading to a large area of elevated to high-end critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central and Southern High Plains... The strong deep-layer west-southwesterlies will support robust downslope warming/drying across the central and southern High Plains, where upper 60s to lower/middle 70s temperatures and 5-10 percent minimum RH is expected during the afternoon. At the same time, the tightening surface pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor an expansive area of 25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 40 mph). Over the I-25 corridor, gusts could reach 50-60 mph, though RH will be slightly higher compared to areas farther east over the Plains. Given mostly receptive fuels across the central and southern High Plains, high-end critical fire-weather conditions are expected -- with the most volatile fire-weather conditions expected over portions of southern CO, northeast NM, and the TX Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will move eastward across the western CONUS, with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft impinging on the Rockies during the afternoon hours. In response, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen as it tracks slowly eastward across the northern Plains, while a deepening lee trough and tightening surface pressure gradient develop southward across much of the central and southern Plains. This large-scale pattern will result in an expansive area of warm, dry, and windy conditions across the central/southern High Plains, leading to a large area of elevated to high-end critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central and Southern High Plains... The strong deep-layer west-southwesterlies will support robust downslope warming/drying across the central and southern High Plains, where upper 60s to lower/middle 70s temperatures and 5-10 percent minimum RH is expected during the afternoon. At the same time, the tightening surface pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor an expansive area of 25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 40 mph). Over the I-25 corridor, gusts could reach 50-60 mph, though RH will be slightly higher compared to areas farther east over the Plains. Given mostly receptive fuels across the central and southern High Plains, high-end critical fire-weather conditions are expected -- with the most volatile fire-weather conditions expected over portions of southern CO, northeast NM, and the TX Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will move eastward across the western CONUS, with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft impinging on the Rockies during the afternoon hours. In response, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen as it tracks slowly eastward across the northern Plains, while a deepening lee trough and tightening surface pressure gradient develop southward across much of the central and southern Plains. This large-scale pattern will result in an expansive area of warm, dry, and windy conditions across the central/southern High Plains, leading to a large area of elevated to high-end critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central and Southern High Plains... The strong deep-layer west-southwesterlies will support robust downslope warming/drying across the central and southern High Plains, where upper 60s to lower/middle 70s temperatures and 5-10 percent minimum RH is expected during the afternoon. At the same time, the tightening surface pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor an expansive area of 25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 40 mph). Over the I-25 corridor, gusts could reach 50-60 mph, though RH will be slightly higher compared to areas farther east over the Plains. Given mostly receptive fuels across the central and southern High Plains, high-end critical fire-weather conditions are expected -- with the most volatile fire-weather conditions expected over portions of southern CO, northeast NM, and the TX Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will move eastward across the western CONUS, with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft impinging on the Rockies during the afternoon hours. In response, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen as it tracks slowly eastward across the northern Plains, while a deepening lee trough and tightening surface pressure gradient develop southward across much of the central and southern Plains. This large-scale pattern will result in an expansive area of warm, dry, and windy conditions across the central/southern High Plains, leading to a large area of elevated to high-end critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central and Southern High Plains... The strong deep-layer west-southwesterlies will support robust downslope warming/drying across the central and southern High Plains, where upper 60s to lower/middle 70s temperatures and 5-10 percent minimum RH is expected during the afternoon. At the same time, the tightening surface pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor an expansive area of 25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 40 mph). Over the I-25 corridor, gusts could reach 50-60 mph, though RH will be slightly higher compared to areas farther east over the Plains. Given mostly receptive fuels across the central and southern High Plains, high-end critical fire-weather conditions are expected -- with the most volatile fire-weather conditions expected over portions of southern CO, northeast NM, and the TX Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will move eastward across the western CONUS, with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft impinging on the Rockies during the afternoon hours. In response, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen as it tracks slowly eastward across the northern Plains, while a deepening lee trough and tightening surface pressure gradient develop southward across much of the central and southern Plains. This large-scale pattern will result in an expansive area of warm, dry, and windy conditions across the central/southern High Plains, leading to a large area of elevated to high-end critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central and Southern High Plains... The strong deep-layer west-southwesterlies will support robust downslope warming/drying across the central and southern High Plains, where upper 60s to lower/middle 70s temperatures and 5-10 percent minimum RH is expected during the afternoon. At the same time, the tightening surface pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor an expansive area of 25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 40 mph). Over the I-25 corridor, gusts could reach 50-60 mph, though RH will be slightly higher compared to areas farther east over the Plains. Given mostly receptive fuels across the central and southern High Plains, high-end critical fire-weather conditions are expected -- with the most volatile fire-weather conditions expected over portions of southern CO, northeast NM, and the TX Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday morning. ...Discussion... Cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to expand eastward across much of the western U.S. though the period, as embedded short-wave troughs south of the weakening low near the Vancouver Island vicinity eject eastward. As these smaller-scale disturbances shift eastward, ascent -- aided by westerly upslope flow -- will support convection and occasional lightning, particularly along windward-facing slopes across an increasingly broad area of the western states. Meanwhile, a southern-stream short-wave trough will cross the Southeast today and tonight. While lightning is ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico and off the southern Atlantic Coast over the Gulf Stream, occasional inland lightning will also be possible. In all areas, severe weather is not expected, with convection expected to remain weak and disorganized. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday morning. ...Discussion... Cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to expand eastward across much of the western U.S. though the period, as embedded short-wave troughs south of the weakening low near the Vancouver Island vicinity eject eastward. As these smaller-scale disturbances shift eastward, ascent -- aided by westerly upslope flow -- will support convection and occasional lightning, particularly along windward-facing slopes across an increasingly broad area of the western states. Meanwhile, a southern-stream short-wave trough will cross the Southeast today and tonight. While lightning is ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico and off the southern Atlantic Coast over the Gulf Stream, occasional inland lightning will also be possible. In all areas, severe weather is not expected, with convection expected to remain weak and disorganized. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday morning. ...Discussion... Cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to expand eastward across much of the western U.S. though the period, as embedded short-wave troughs south of the weakening low near the Vancouver Island vicinity eject eastward. As these smaller-scale disturbances shift eastward, ascent -- aided by westerly upslope flow -- will support convection and occasional lightning, particularly along windward-facing slopes across an increasingly broad area of the western states. Meanwhile, a southern-stream short-wave trough will cross the Southeast today and tonight. While lightning is ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico and off the southern Atlantic Coast over the Gulf Stream, occasional inland lightning will also be possible. In all areas, severe weather is not expected, with convection expected to remain weak and disorganized. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday morning. ...Discussion... Cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to expand eastward across much of the western U.S. though the period, as embedded short-wave troughs south of the weakening low near the Vancouver Island vicinity eject eastward. As these smaller-scale disturbances shift eastward, ascent -- aided by westerly upslope flow -- will support convection and occasional lightning, particularly along windward-facing slopes across an increasingly broad area of the western states. Meanwhile, a southern-stream short-wave trough will cross the Southeast today and tonight. While lightning is ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico and off the southern Atlantic Coast over the Gulf Stream, occasional inland lightning will also be possible. In all areas, severe weather is not expected, with convection expected to remain weak and disorganized. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday morning. ...Discussion... Cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to expand eastward across much of the western U.S. though the period, as embedded short-wave troughs south of the weakening low near the Vancouver Island vicinity eject eastward. As these smaller-scale disturbances shift eastward, ascent -- aided by westerly upslope flow -- will support convection and occasional lightning, particularly along windward-facing slopes across an increasingly broad area of the western states. Meanwhile, a southern-stream short-wave trough will cross the Southeast today and tonight. While lightning is ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico and off the southern Atlantic Coast over the Gulf Stream, occasional inland lightning will also be possible. In all areas, severe weather is not expected, with convection expected to remain weak and disorganized. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday morning. ...Discussion... Cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to expand eastward across much of the western U.S. though the period, as embedded short-wave troughs south of the weakening low near the Vancouver Island vicinity eject eastward. As these smaller-scale disturbances shift eastward, ascent -- aided by westerly upslope flow -- will support convection and occasional lightning, particularly along windward-facing slopes across an increasingly broad area of the western states. Meanwhile, a southern-stream short-wave trough will cross the Southeast today and tonight. While lightning is ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico and off the southern Atlantic Coast over the Gulf Stream, occasional inland lightning will also be possible. In all areas, severe weather is not expected, with convection expected to remain weak and disorganized. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday morning. ...Discussion... Cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to expand eastward across much of the western U.S. though the period, as embedded short-wave troughs south of the weakening low near the Vancouver Island vicinity eject eastward. As these smaller-scale disturbances shift eastward, ascent -- aided by westerly upslope flow -- will support convection and occasional lightning, particularly along windward-facing slopes across an increasingly broad area of the western states. Meanwhile, a southern-stream short-wave trough will cross the Southeast today and tonight. While lightning is ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico and off the southern Atlantic Coast over the Gulf Stream, occasional inland lightning will also be possible. In all areas, severe weather is not expected, with convection expected to remain weak and disorganized. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/02/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Quasi-zonal flow aloft will be prevalent across the CONUS beginning next Tuesday. Model guidance has reasonable agreement that a lead shortwave trough will develop in the southern Appalachians late Tuesday into Wednesday. This feature will promote a modestly deep surface cyclone in the Southeast that will lift north and east with time. Farther west, a broader and more amplified trough is forecast to evolve within the lower Colorado River Valley by midweek. This lower-latitude feature will shift eastward and eject into the southern Plains around Thursday. While model guidance diverges on the evolution of this trough by the end of next week, the general theme is that the trough will intensify as it move into the Southeast. While there will be moisture return ahead of the stronger western trough, the presence of the surface low near the eastern Gulf will drive offshore flow. This will act to restrict the magnitude/quality of moisture return into the southern Plains. Severe weather could occur in the southern Plains on Thursday, but uncertainty remains too high for highlights. Additional potential for severe weather may exist Friday into the weekend from east Texas into the Southeast. However, given the low latitude nature of the trough, there is ample uncertainty as to the degree of quality moisture return inland. Models differ with regard to the position and evolution of the surface low next weekend. Confidence remains too low for highlights this far in advance. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Quasi-zonal flow aloft will be prevalent across the CONUS beginning next Tuesday. Model guidance has reasonable agreement that a lead shortwave trough will develop in the southern Appalachians late Tuesday into Wednesday. This feature will promote a modestly deep surface cyclone in the Southeast that will lift north and east with time. Farther west, a broader and more amplified trough is forecast to evolve within the lower Colorado River Valley by midweek. This lower-latitude feature will shift eastward and eject into the southern Plains around Thursday. While model guidance diverges on the evolution of this trough by the end of next week, the general theme is that the trough will intensify as it move into the Southeast. While there will be moisture return ahead of the stronger western trough, the presence of the surface low near the eastern Gulf will drive offshore flow. This will act to restrict the magnitude/quality of moisture return into the southern Plains. Severe weather could occur in the southern Plains on Thursday, but uncertainty remains too high for highlights. Additional potential for severe weather may exist Friday into the weekend from east Texas into the Southeast. However, given the low latitude nature of the trough, there is ample uncertainty as to the degree of quality moisture return inland. Models differ with regard to the position and evolution of the surface low next weekend. Confidence remains too low for highlights this far in advance. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Quasi-zonal flow aloft will be prevalent across the CONUS beginning next Tuesday. Model guidance has reasonable agreement that a lead shortwave trough will develop in the southern Appalachians late Tuesday into Wednesday. This feature will promote a modestly deep surface cyclone in the Southeast that will lift north and east with time. Farther west, a broader and more amplified trough is forecast to evolve within the lower Colorado River Valley by midweek. This lower-latitude feature will shift eastward and eject into the southern Plains around Thursday. While model guidance diverges on the evolution of this trough by the end of next week, the general theme is that the trough will intensify as it move into the Southeast. While there will be moisture return ahead of the stronger western trough, the presence of the surface low near the eastern Gulf will drive offshore flow. This will act to restrict the magnitude/quality of moisture return into the southern Plains. Severe weather could occur in the southern Plains on Thursday, but uncertainty remains too high for highlights. Additional potential for severe weather may exist Friday into the weekend from east Texas into the Southeast. However, given the low latitude nature of the trough, there is ample uncertainty as to the degree of quality moisture return inland. Models differ with regard to the position and evolution of the surface low next weekend. Confidence remains too low for highlights this far in advance. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Quasi-zonal flow aloft will be prevalent across the CONUS beginning next Tuesday. Model guidance has reasonable agreement that a lead shortwave trough will develop in the southern Appalachians late Tuesday into Wednesday. This feature will promote a modestly deep surface cyclone in the Southeast that will lift north and east with time. Farther west, a broader and more amplified trough is forecast to evolve within the lower Colorado River Valley by midweek. This lower-latitude feature will shift eastward and eject into the southern Plains around Thursday. While model guidance diverges on the evolution of this trough by the end of next week, the general theme is that the trough will intensify as it move into the Southeast. While there will be moisture return ahead of the stronger western trough, the presence of the surface low near the eastern Gulf will drive offshore flow. This will act to restrict the magnitude/quality of moisture return into the southern Plains. Severe weather could occur in the southern Plains on Thursday, but uncertainty remains too high for highlights. Additional potential for severe weather may exist Friday into the weekend from east Texas into the Southeast. However, given the low latitude nature of the trough, there is ample uncertainty as to the degree of quality moisture return inland. Models differ with regard to the position and evolution of the surface low next weekend. Confidence remains too low for highlights this far in advance. Read more