Severe Storms

MD 0288 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
Mesoscale Discussion 0288 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern Maine and New Hampshire Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 232157Z - 240100Z SUMMARY...Mixed precipitation should continue across portions of northern New England over the next few hours. Freezing rain is also possible, with ice accretion rates exceeding 0.05 inches/3 hrs in some spots. DISCUSSION...A surface low, located just off the coast of NJ, is poised to traverse the coastline through the evening as a mid-level trough overspreads the region. Strong surface-700 mb warm-air/moisture advection is underway along the New England coast, promoting widespread wintry precipitation. Snow should remain the predominant precipitation type across northern parts of ME and NH. However, temperatures are rising above the freezing mark in the lowest couple hundred mb, allowing for mixed wintry precipitation to occur. Along and just north of surface freezing line, ice accumulations have been reported, and ice accretion rates of up to 0.05 inches/3 hrs, as well as sleet, are possible where rainfall is heaviest. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX... LAT...LON 43177049 42887137 42987202 43627207 43717125 44276974 44196909 43776958 43177049 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Bimodal eastern US trough will continue progressing east overnight. Large-scale forcing for convection has shifted offshore and nocturnal cooling will lead to weakening updrafts along the northern FL Atlantic Coast over the next hour or so. Across the western US, isolated thunderstorms continue across interior CA into UT ahead of a pronounced upper trough advancing inland. Later tonight, strong 500mb speed max will translate across the northern Baja Peninsula/northern Gulf of CA into northern Mexico. Cooling profiles aloft and steepening lapse rates will contribute to buoyancy necessary for scattered thunderstorm development along/ahead of the primary synoptic front. Main concentration of lightning should be across AZ, starting later this evening into the early-morning hours. ..Darrow.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Bimodal eastern US trough will continue progressing east overnight. Large-scale forcing for convection has shifted offshore and nocturnal cooling will lead to weakening updrafts along the northern FL Atlantic Coast over the next hour or so. Across the western US, isolated thunderstorms continue across interior CA into UT ahead of a pronounced upper trough advancing inland. Later tonight, strong 500mb speed max will translate across the northern Baja Peninsula/northern Gulf of CA into northern Mexico. Cooling profiles aloft and steepening lapse rates will contribute to buoyancy necessary for scattered thunderstorm development along/ahead of the primary synoptic front. Main concentration of lightning should be across AZ, starting later this evening into the early-morning hours. ..Darrow.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Bimodal eastern US trough will continue progressing east overnight. Large-scale forcing for convection has shifted offshore and nocturnal cooling will lead to weakening updrafts along the northern FL Atlantic Coast over the next hour or so. Across the western US, isolated thunderstorms continue across interior CA into UT ahead of a pronounced upper trough advancing inland. Later tonight, strong 500mb speed max will translate across the northern Baja Peninsula/northern Gulf of CA into northern Mexico. Cooling profiles aloft and steepening lapse rates will contribute to buoyancy necessary for scattered thunderstorm development along/ahead of the primary synoptic front. Main concentration of lightning should be across AZ, starting later this evening into the early-morning hours. ..Darrow.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Bimodal eastern US trough will continue progressing east overnight. Large-scale forcing for convection has shifted offshore and nocturnal cooling will lead to weakening updrafts along the northern FL Atlantic Coast over the next hour or so. Across the western US, isolated thunderstorms continue across interior CA into UT ahead of a pronounced upper trough advancing inland. Later tonight, strong 500mb speed max will translate across the northern Baja Peninsula/northern Gulf of CA into northern Mexico. Cooling profiles aloft and steepening lapse rates will contribute to buoyancy necessary for scattered thunderstorm development along/ahead of the primary synoptic front. Main concentration of lightning should be across AZ, starting later this evening into the early-morning hours. ..Darrow.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Bimodal eastern US trough will continue progressing east overnight. Large-scale forcing for convection has shifted offshore and nocturnal cooling will lead to weakening updrafts along the northern FL Atlantic Coast over the next hour or so. Across the western US, isolated thunderstorms continue across interior CA into UT ahead of a pronounced upper trough advancing inland. Later tonight, strong 500mb speed max will translate across the northern Baja Peninsula/northern Gulf of CA into northern Mexico. Cooling profiles aloft and steepening lapse rates will contribute to buoyancy necessary for scattered thunderstorm development along/ahead of the primary synoptic front. Main concentration of lightning should be across AZ, starting later this evening into the early-morning hours. ..Darrow.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Bimodal eastern US trough will continue progressing east overnight. Large-scale forcing for convection has shifted offshore and nocturnal cooling will lead to weakening updrafts along the northern FL Atlantic Coast over the next hour or so. Across the western US, isolated thunderstorms continue across interior CA into UT ahead of a pronounced upper trough advancing inland. Later tonight, strong 500mb speed max will translate across the northern Baja Peninsula/northern Gulf of CA into northern Mexico. Cooling profiles aloft and steepening lapse rates will contribute to buoyancy necessary for scattered thunderstorm development along/ahead of the primary synoptic front. Main concentration of lightning should be across AZ, starting later this evening into the early-morning hours. ..Darrow.. 03/24/2024 Read more

MD 0289 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO CENTRAL MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 0289 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0610 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Areas affected...portions of central Vermont and New Hampshire into central Maine Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 232310Z - 240415Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow should continue across northern parts of New England into the evening hours. 1-2 inch/hr snowfall rates and periods of reduced visibility are possible, especially after 00Z (8 PM EDT). DISCUSSION...Heavy snow is ongoing to the north of a strong low-level cyclone that is currently traversing the Atlantic Coastline. Regional dual-polarimetric radar data depicts the transition line between all snow and mixed wintry precipitation to be established from roughly the MA/VT border to central Penobscot County, ME, and the latest high-resolution model guidance suggests that this transition line should remain roughly stationary into the evening hours. 700 mb frontogenesis is increasing along the international border in tandem with increasing low-level WAA, and this should encourage increased snowfall rates as moisture and lift are boosted within the dendritic growth zone. 1-2 inch/hr snowfall rates are possible, especially later this evening (i.e. the 00-05Z time frame). ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY... LAT...LON 42907323 44437176 45367043 46406884 46406806 46226770 45906762 45506784 45006851 44796918 43917096 43387180 42817274 42907323 Read more

MD 0288 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
Mesoscale Discussion 0288 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern Maine and New Hampshire Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 232157Z - 240100Z SUMMARY...Mixed precipitation should continue across portions of northern New England over the next few hours. Freezing rain is also possible, with ice accretion rates exceeding 0.05 inches/3 hrs in some spots. DISCUSSION...A surface low, located just off the coast of NJ, is poised to traverse the coastline through the evening as a mid-level trough overspreads the region. Strong surface-700 mb warm-air/moisture advection is underway along the New England coast, promoting widespread wintry precipitation. Snow should remain the predominant precipitation type across northern parts of ME and NH. However, temperatures are rising above the freezing mark in the lowest couple hundred mb, allowing for mixed wintry precipitation to occur. Along and just north of surface freezing line, ice accumulations have been reported, and ice accretion rates of up to 0.05 inches/3 hrs, as well as sleet, are possible where rainfall is heaviest. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX... LAT...LON 43177049 42887137 42987202 43627207 43717125 44276974 44196909 43776958 43177049 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 23 23:31:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A highly amplified pattern will continue over the CONUS with a deep upper-level trough slowly moving east across the central and eastern US through mid-next week. Another upper-level trough is forecast to deepen over the western CONUS next weekend with zonal upper-level flow slowly amplifying over the Rockies and Plains late next week into next weekend. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely at times late next week and next weekend, but there remains uncertainty regarding the timing of the upper-level trough moving into and deepening over the West Coast and how amplified mid-level short-wave ridging becomes over the Rockies and Plains. ...D3/Monday: southwest Texas/vicinity... While the surface pressure gradient will weaken over southwest Texas, strong winds aloft mixing to the surface and an approaching cold front will likely result in sustained winds of 15-20 mph amid minimum RH of 10-25%. The northward and eastward extents of the 40% area have uncertainty due to the approaching cold front and weakening dryline to the east. Additionally, thunderstorms are possible in eastern portions of the outlook area D2/Sunday night possibly into D3/Monday morning, and isolated showers are also possible within outlook area. ...D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday: southeast New Mexico/southwest Texas... Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions are likely in portions of southern/southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday. As the upper-level troughs exits the area, gusty northwest flow aloft on D5/Wednesday is likely to mix to the surface, with lingering breezy westerly winds on D4/Tuesday. However, locally elevated conditions are most likely on these days based on current forecast fire weather and fuels guidance. ...D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday: southern High Plains/vicinity... Current ensemble guidance indicates that a multi-day episode of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely late next week and weekend. Subsequent 40% areas for critical fire weather conditions have been included for D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday. However, the timing, location, and magnitude remain uncertain after ensemble guidance has trended towards less westerly, zonal flow aloft across the southern Rockies and southern High Plains and more towards shortwave ridging aloft. A mid-level shortwave trough remains forecast to move over the central/southern Plains late next week, but recent guidance shows a weaker trough and slightly farther north. While forecast uncertainty remains regarding the exact location and timing of critical fire weather from central/southern New Mexico to the southern Plains late next week and weekend, there is enough confidence to include 40% probability areas for critical conditions. Subsequent outlooks will likely modify these 40% areas, and there is the possibility of removing them from at least one day if current forecast trends accelerate. ..Nauslar.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A highly amplified pattern will continue over the CONUS with a deep upper-level trough slowly moving east across the central and eastern US through mid-next week. Another upper-level trough is forecast to deepen over the western CONUS next weekend with zonal upper-level flow slowly amplifying over the Rockies and Plains late next week into next weekend. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely at times late next week and next weekend, but there remains uncertainty regarding the timing of the upper-level trough moving into and deepening over the West Coast and how amplified mid-level short-wave ridging becomes over the Rockies and Plains. ...D3/Monday: southwest Texas/vicinity... While the surface pressure gradient will weaken over southwest Texas, strong winds aloft mixing to the surface and an approaching cold front will likely result in sustained winds of 15-20 mph amid minimum RH of 10-25%. The northward and eastward extents of the 40% area have uncertainty due to the approaching cold front and weakening dryline to the east. Additionally, thunderstorms are possible in eastern portions of the outlook area D2/Sunday night possibly into D3/Monday morning, and isolated showers are also possible within outlook area. ...D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday: southeast New Mexico/southwest Texas... Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions are likely in portions of southern/southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday. As the upper-level troughs exits the area, gusty northwest flow aloft on D5/Wednesday is likely to mix to the surface, with lingering breezy westerly winds on D4/Tuesday. However, locally elevated conditions are most likely on these days based on current forecast fire weather and fuels guidance. ...D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday: southern High Plains/vicinity... Current ensemble guidance indicates that a multi-day episode of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely late next week and weekend. Subsequent 40% areas for critical fire weather conditions have been included for D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday. However, the timing, location, and magnitude remain uncertain after ensemble guidance has trended towards less westerly, zonal flow aloft across the southern Rockies and southern High Plains and more towards shortwave ridging aloft. A mid-level shortwave trough remains forecast to move over the central/southern Plains late next week, but recent guidance shows a weaker trough and slightly farther north. While forecast uncertainty remains regarding the exact location and timing of critical fire weather from central/southern New Mexico to the southern Plains late next week and weekend, there is enough confidence to include 40% probability areas for critical conditions. Subsequent outlooks will likely modify these 40% areas, and there is the possibility of removing them from at least one day if current forecast trends accelerate. ..Nauslar.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A highly amplified pattern will continue over the CONUS with a deep upper-level trough slowly moving east across the central and eastern US through mid-next week. Another upper-level trough is forecast to deepen over the western CONUS next weekend with zonal upper-level flow slowly amplifying over the Rockies and Plains late next week into next weekend. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely at times late next week and next weekend, but there remains uncertainty regarding the timing of the upper-level trough moving into and deepening over the West Coast and how amplified mid-level short-wave ridging becomes over the Rockies and Plains. ...D3/Monday: southwest Texas/vicinity... While the surface pressure gradient will weaken over southwest Texas, strong winds aloft mixing to the surface and an approaching cold front will likely result in sustained winds of 15-20 mph amid minimum RH of 10-25%. The northward and eastward extents of the 40% area have uncertainty due to the approaching cold front and weakening dryline to the east. Additionally, thunderstorms are possible in eastern portions of the outlook area D2/Sunday night possibly into D3/Monday morning, and isolated showers are also possible within outlook area. ...D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday: southeast New Mexico/southwest Texas... Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions are likely in portions of southern/southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday. As the upper-level troughs exits the area, gusty northwest flow aloft on D5/Wednesday is likely to mix to the surface, with lingering breezy westerly winds on D4/Tuesday. However, locally elevated conditions are most likely on these days based on current forecast fire weather and fuels guidance. ...D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday: southern High Plains/vicinity... Current ensemble guidance indicates that a multi-day episode of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely late next week and weekend. Subsequent 40% areas for critical fire weather conditions have been included for D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday. However, the timing, location, and magnitude remain uncertain after ensemble guidance has trended towards less westerly, zonal flow aloft across the southern Rockies and southern High Plains and more towards shortwave ridging aloft. A mid-level shortwave trough remains forecast to move over the central/southern Plains late next week, but recent guidance shows a weaker trough and slightly farther north. While forecast uncertainty remains regarding the exact location and timing of critical fire weather from central/southern New Mexico to the southern Plains late next week and weekend, there is enough confidence to include 40% probability areas for critical conditions. Subsequent outlooks will likely modify these 40% areas, and there is the possibility of removing them from at least one day if current forecast trends accelerate. ..Nauslar.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A highly amplified pattern will continue over the CONUS with a deep upper-level trough slowly moving east across the central and eastern US through mid-next week. Another upper-level trough is forecast to deepen over the western CONUS next weekend with zonal upper-level flow slowly amplifying over the Rockies and Plains late next week into next weekend. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely at times late next week and next weekend, but there remains uncertainty regarding the timing of the upper-level trough moving into and deepening over the West Coast and how amplified mid-level short-wave ridging becomes over the Rockies and Plains. ...D3/Monday: southwest Texas/vicinity... While the surface pressure gradient will weaken over southwest Texas, strong winds aloft mixing to the surface and an approaching cold front will likely result in sustained winds of 15-20 mph amid minimum RH of 10-25%. The northward and eastward extents of the 40% area have uncertainty due to the approaching cold front and weakening dryline to the east. Additionally, thunderstorms are possible in eastern portions of the outlook area D2/Sunday night possibly into D3/Monday morning, and isolated showers are also possible within outlook area. ...D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday: southeast New Mexico/southwest Texas... Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions are likely in portions of southern/southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday. As the upper-level troughs exits the area, gusty northwest flow aloft on D5/Wednesday is likely to mix to the surface, with lingering breezy westerly winds on D4/Tuesday. However, locally elevated conditions are most likely on these days based on current forecast fire weather and fuels guidance. ...D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday: southern High Plains/vicinity... Current ensemble guidance indicates that a multi-day episode of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely late next week and weekend. Subsequent 40% areas for critical fire weather conditions have been included for D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday. However, the timing, location, and magnitude remain uncertain after ensemble guidance has trended towards less westerly, zonal flow aloft across the southern Rockies and southern High Plains and more towards shortwave ridging aloft. A mid-level shortwave trough remains forecast to move over the central/southern Plains late next week, but recent guidance shows a weaker trough and slightly farther north. While forecast uncertainty remains regarding the exact location and timing of critical fire weather from central/southern New Mexico to the southern Plains late next week and weekend, there is enough confidence to include 40% probability areas for critical conditions. Subsequent outlooks will likely modify these 40% areas, and there is the possibility of removing them from at least one day if current forecast trends accelerate. ..Nauslar.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A highly amplified pattern will continue over the CONUS with a deep upper-level trough slowly moving east across the central and eastern US through mid-next week. Another upper-level trough is forecast to deepen over the western CONUS next weekend with zonal upper-level flow slowly amplifying over the Rockies and Plains late next week into next weekend. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely at times late next week and next weekend, but there remains uncertainty regarding the timing of the upper-level trough moving into and deepening over the West Coast and how amplified mid-level short-wave ridging becomes over the Rockies and Plains. ...D3/Monday: southwest Texas/vicinity... While the surface pressure gradient will weaken over southwest Texas, strong winds aloft mixing to the surface and an approaching cold front will likely result in sustained winds of 15-20 mph amid minimum RH of 10-25%. The northward and eastward extents of the 40% area have uncertainty due to the approaching cold front and weakening dryline to the east. Additionally, thunderstorms are possible in eastern portions of the outlook area D2/Sunday night possibly into D3/Monday morning, and isolated showers are also possible within outlook area. ...D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday: southeast New Mexico/southwest Texas... Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions are likely in portions of southern/southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday. As the upper-level troughs exits the area, gusty northwest flow aloft on D5/Wednesday is likely to mix to the surface, with lingering breezy westerly winds on D4/Tuesday. However, locally elevated conditions are most likely on these days based on current forecast fire weather and fuels guidance. ...D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday: southern High Plains/vicinity... Current ensemble guidance indicates that a multi-day episode of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely late next week and weekend. Subsequent 40% areas for critical fire weather conditions have been included for D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday. However, the timing, location, and magnitude remain uncertain after ensemble guidance has trended towards less westerly, zonal flow aloft across the southern Rockies and southern High Plains and more towards shortwave ridging aloft. A mid-level shortwave trough remains forecast to move over the central/southern Plains late next week, but recent guidance shows a weaker trough and slightly farther north. While forecast uncertainty remains regarding the exact location and timing of critical fire weather from central/southern New Mexico to the southern Plains late next week and weekend, there is enough confidence to include 40% probability areas for critical conditions. Subsequent outlooks will likely modify these 40% areas, and there is the possibility of removing them from at least one day if current forecast trends accelerate. ..Nauslar.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A highly amplified pattern will continue over the CONUS with a deep upper-level trough slowly moving east across the central and eastern US through mid-next week. Another upper-level trough is forecast to deepen over the western CONUS next weekend with zonal upper-level flow slowly amplifying over the Rockies and Plains late next week into next weekend. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely at times late next week and next weekend, but there remains uncertainty regarding the timing of the upper-level trough moving into and deepening over the West Coast and how amplified mid-level short-wave ridging becomes over the Rockies and Plains. ...D3/Monday: southwest Texas/vicinity... While the surface pressure gradient will weaken over southwest Texas, strong winds aloft mixing to the surface and an approaching cold front will likely result in sustained winds of 15-20 mph amid minimum RH of 10-25%. The northward and eastward extents of the 40% area have uncertainty due to the approaching cold front and weakening dryline to the east. Additionally, thunderstorms are possible in eastern portions of the outlook area D2/Sunday night possibly into D3/Monday morning, and isolated showers are also possible within outlook area. ...D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday: southeast New Mexico/southwest Texas... Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions are likely in portions of southern/southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday. As the upper-level troughs exits the area, gusty northwest flow aloft on D5/Wednesday is likely to mix to the surface, with lingering breezy westerly winds on D4/Tuesday. However, locally elevated conditions are most likely on these days based on current forecast fire weather and fuels guidance. ...D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday: southern High Plains/vicinity... Current ensemble guidance indicates that a multi-day episode of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely late next week and weekend. Subsequent 40% areas for critical fire weather conditions have been included for D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday. However, the timing, location, and magnitude remain uncertain after ensemble guidance has trended towards less westerly, zonal flow aloft across the southern Rockies and southern High Plains and more towards shortwave ridging aloft. A mid-level shortwave trough remains forecast to move over the central/southern Plains late next week, but recent guidance shows a weaker trough and slightly farther north. While forecast uncertainty remains regarding the exact location and timing of critical fire weather from central/southern New Mexico to the southern Plains late next week and weekend, there is enough confidence to include 40% probability areas for critical conditions. Subsequent outlooks will likely modify these 40% areas, and there is the possibility of removing them from at least one day if current forecast trends accelerate. ..Nauslar.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A highly amplified pattern will continue over the CONUS with a deep upper-level trough slowly moving east across the central and eastern US through mid-next week. Another upper-level trough is forecast to deepen over the western CONUS next weekend with zonal upper-level flow slowly amplifying over the Rockies and Plains late next week into next weekend. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely at times late next week and next weekend, but there remains uncertainty regarding the timing of the upper-level trough moving into and deepening over the West Coast and how amplified mid-level short-wave ridging becomes over the Rockies and Plains. ...D3/Monday: southwest Texas/vicinity... While the surface pressure gradient will weaken over southwest Texas, strong winds aloft mixing to the surface and an approaching cold front will likely result in sustained winds of 15-20 mph amid minimum RH of 10-25%. The northward and eastward extents of the 40% area have uncertainty due to the approaching cold front and weakening dryline to the east. Additionally, thunderstorms are possible in eastern portions of the outlook area D2/Sunday night possibly into D3/Monday morning, and isolated showers are also possible within outlook area. ...D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday: southeast New Mexico/southwest Texas... Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions are likely in portions of southern/southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday. As the upper-level troughs exits the area, gusty northwest flow aloft on D5/Wednesday is likely to mix to the surface, with lingering breezy westerly winds on D4/Tuesday. However, locally elevated conditions are most likely on these days based on current forecast fire weather and fuels guidance. ...D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday: southern High Plains/vicinity... Current ensemble guidance indicates that a multi-day episode of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely late next week and weekend. Subsequent 40% areas for critical fire weather conditions have been included for D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday. However, the timing, location, and magnitude remain uncertain after ensemble guidance has trended towards less westerly, zonal flow aloft across the southern Rockies and southern High Plains and more towards shortwave ridging aloft. A mid-level shortwave trough remains forecast to move over the central/southern Plains late next week, but recent guidance shows a weaker trough and slightly farther north. While forecast uncertainty remains regarding the exact location and timing of critical fire weather from central/southern New Mexico to the southern Plains late next week and weekend, there is enough confidence to include 40% probability areas for critical conditions. Subsequent outlooks will likely modify these 40% areas, and there is the possibility of removing them from at least one day if current forecast trends accelerate. ..Nauslar.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A highly amplified pattern will continue over the CONUS with a deep upper-level trough slowly moving east across the central and eastern US through mid-next week. Another upper-level trough is forecast to deepen over the western CONUS next weekend with zonal upper-level flow slowly amplifying over the Rockies and Plains late next week into next weekend. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely at times late next week and next weekend, but there remains uncertainty regarding the timing of the upper-level trough moving into and deepening over the West Coast and how amplified mid-level short-wave ridging becomes over the Rockies and Plains. ...D3/Monday: southwest Texas/vicinity... While the surface pressure gradient will weaken over southwest Texas, strong winds aloft mixing to the surface and an approaching cold front will likely result in sustained winds of 15-20 mph amid minimum RH of 10-25%. The northward and eastward extents of the 40% area have uncertainty due to the approaching cold front and weakening dryline to the east. Additionally, thunderstorms are possible in eastern portions of the outlook area D2/Sunday night possibly into D3/Monday morning, and isolated showers are also possible within outlook area. ...D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday: southeast New Mexico/southwest Texas... Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions are likely in portions of southern/southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday. As the upper-level troughs exits the area, gusty northwest flow aloft on D5/Wednesday is likely to mix to the surface, with lingering breezy westerly winds on D4/Tuesday. However, locally elevated conditions are most likely on these days based on current forecast fire weather and fuels guidance. ...D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday: southern High Plains/vicinity... Current ensemble guidance indicates that a multi-day episode of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely late next week and weekend. Subsequent 40% areas for critical fire weather conditions have been included for D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday. However, the timing, location, and magnitude remain uncertain after ensemble guidance has trended towards less westerly, zonal flow aloft across the southern Rockies and southern High Plains and more towards shortwave ridging aloft. A mid-level shortwave trough remains forecast to move over the central/southern Plains late next week, but recent guidance shows a weaker trough and slightly farther north. While forecast uncertainty remains regarding the exact location and timing of critical fire weather from central/southern New Mexico to the southern Plains late next week and weekend, there is enough confidence to include 40% probability areas for critical conditions. Subsequent outlooks will likely modify these 40% areas, and there is the possibility of removing them from at least one day if current forecast trends accelerate. ..Nauslar.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Mar 23 21:07:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected from now through early Sunday morning. ...20Z Update... ...FL Keys... Primary band of convection has shifted south/southeast of the Keys, so severe probabilities have been removed from that area. A few lingering thunderstorms remain possible through the evening and overnight. ...Southern GA into Northeast FL... Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible for the next few hours as a shortwave trough progresses through the region. Modest buoyancy and shear should keep the severe potential very low. ...Southern CA Coast... Added a 10% thunder area for the southern CA coast region. A few isolated flashes are possible within the band moving ashore now. However, greater thunderstorm chances are expected later this evening as another shortwave trough moves through the region. Combination of cold mid-level temperatures and forcing for ascent attendant to this shortwave could support a few updrafts deep enough to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 03/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024/ ...South FL... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across the southern tip of FL into the Keys. Scattered strong thunderstorms are occurring along/ahead of the front, in a very moist/unstable and moderately sheared environment. The threat of a strong wind gust or brief spin up will persist for another 1-2 hours before the front moves through, veering low-level winds and stabilizing the air mass. Elsewhere across the CONUS, no severe storm activity is expected today. Read more