Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Isolated/marginal severe potential on Day 4/Thursday should remain confined along and south of a cold front that will advance southeastward across the FL Peninsula through the day. An upper trough over the Southeast should also continue eastward to the western Atlantic by Thursday evening. Enhanced mid-level winds should promote sufficient deep-layer shear to support organized thunderstorms. However, modest instability and veering low-level winds limiting convergence along the front will probably tend to temper the magnitude and coverage of robust convection. Have therefore not included a 15% severe area for Thursday across the central/southern FL Peninsula. Once the cold front clears the East Coast, severe potential appears minimal across the CONUS from Day 5/Friday until at least Day 6/Saturday. Gradual low-level moisture return across the southern/central Plains and lower/mid MS Valley is forecast in this time frame. But, mid/upper-level ridging and capping concerns across these regions should tend to suppress most convection. By Day 7/Sunday into Day 8/Monday, most medium-range guidance shows an upper trough/low moving from the eastern Pacific across the western states. There appears to be a somewhat bimodal distribution in various GFS/GEFS and ECMWF/EPS solutions regarding the eventual ejection of this upper trough across the southern/central Plains. Some guidance shows a more positively tilted and elongated upper trough evolution, which could still support severe potential across the southern/central Plains by early next week. Other solutions show a more compact, neutral to negatively tilted trough ejection. Stronger low-level mass response in this scenario would lead to greater low-level moisture return, related stronger instability east of a dryline, and a potentially better setup for severe convection next Monday. Regardless, predictability remains far too low to add a 15% severe delineation at this extended time frame. But, trends will be monitored. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Isolated/marginal severe potential on Day 4/Thursday should remain confined along and south of a cold front that will advance southeastward across the FL Peninsula through the day. An upper trough over the Southeast should also continue eastward to the western Atlantic by Thursday evening. Enhanced mid-level winds should promote sufficient deep-layer shear to support organized thunderstorms. However, modest instability and veering low-level winds limiting convergence along the front will probably tend to temper the magnitude and coverage of robust convection. Have therefore not included a 15% severe area for Thursday across the central/southern FL Peninsula. Once the cold front clears the East Coast, severe potential appears minimal across the CONUS from Day 5/Friday until at least Day 6/Saturday. Gradual low-level moisture return across the southern/central Plains and lower/mid MS Valley is forecast in this time frame. But, mid/upper-level ridging and capping concerns across these regions should tend to suppress most convection. By Day 7/Sunday into Day 8/Monday, most medium-range guidance shows an upper trough/low moving from the eastern Pacific across the western states. There appears to be a somewhat bimodal distribution in various GFS/GEFS and ECMWF/EPS solutions regarding the eventual ejection of this upper trough across the southern/central Plains. Some guidance shows a more positively tilted and elongated upper trough evolution, which could still support severe potential across the southern/central Plains by early next week. Other solutions show a more compact, neutral to negatively tilted trough ejection. Stronger low-level mass response in this scenario would lead to greater low-level moisture return, related stronger instability east of a dryline, and a potentially better setup for severe convection next Monday. Regardless, predictability remains far too low to add a 15% severe delineation at this extended time frame. But, trends will be monitored. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Isolated/marginal severe potential on Day 4/Thursday should remain confined along and south of a cold front that will advance southeastward across the FL Peninsula through the day. An upper trough over the Southeast should also continue eastward to the western Atlantic by Thursday evening. Enhanced mid-level winds should promote sufficient deep-layer shear to support organized thunderstorms. However, modest instability and veering low-level winds limiting convergence along the front will probably tend to temper the magnitude and coverage of robust convection. Have therefore not included a 15% severe area for Thursday across the central/southern FL Peninsula. Once the cold front clears the East Coast, severe potential appears minimal across the CONUS from Day 5/Friday until at least Day 6/Saturday. Gradual low-level moisture return across the southern/central Plains and lower/mid MS Valley is forecast in this time frame. But, mid/upper-level ridging and capping concerns across these regions should tend to suppress most convection. By Day 7/Sunday into Day 8/Monday, most medium-range guidance shows an upper trough/low moving from the eastern Pacific across the western states. There appears to be a somewhat bimodal distribution in various GFS/GEFS and ECMWF/EPS solutions regarding the eventual ejection of this upper trough across the southern/central Plains. Some guidance shows a more positively tilted and elongated upper trough evolution, which could still support severe potential across the southern/central Plains by early next week. Other solutions show a more compact, neutral to negatively tilted trough ejection. Stronger low-level mass response in this scenario would lead to greater low-level moisture return, related stronger instability east of a dryline, and a potentially better setup for severe convection next Monday. Regardless, predictability remains far too low to add a 15% severe delineation at this extended time frame. But, trends will be monitored. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough, with split mid-level jets, will move slowly eastward across the central/eastern CONUS on Wednesday. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will persist over the Southeast, while a cold front stalls across the FL Panhandle, GA, and Carolinas. At least low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present along and southeast of the front. But, poor lapse rates and ongoing convection/cloudiness Wednesday morning are expected to hamper robust destabilization. While occasional gusty winds may occur with the strongest thunderstorms that can develop through the afternoon, the overall wind threat appears too limited at this time to include low severe probabilities. There are some indications in various model guidance that convection may develop Wednesday afternoon on the backside of the upper trough across parts of the southern Plains. Typically, this area would be in a subsident regime, with minimal convective potential owing to a lack of low-level moisture/boundary-layer instability. However, in this case, it appears that cold temperatures aloft combined with shallow/residual low-level moisture and daytime heating will provide modest destabilization as the boundary layer becomes well mixed. Weak instability should preclude an organized severe threat, but isolated strong/gusty winds appear possible with any high-based convection that develops. Finally, occasional lightning flashes may occur with low-topped thunderstorms across coastal portions of the Pacific Northwest. This potential should focus mainly in the afternoon and evening time frame, as cold mid-level temperatures and pronounced ascent associated with an approaching upper trough overspread this region. ..Gleason.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough, with split mid-level jets, will move slowly eastward across the central/eastern CONUS on Wednesday. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will persist over the Southeast, while a cold front stalls across the FL Panhandle, GA, and Carolinas. At least low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present along and southeast of the front. But, poor lapse rates and ongoing convection/cloudiness Wednesday morning are expected to hamper robust destabilization. While occasional gusty winds may occur with the strongest thunderstorms that can develop through the afternoon, the overall wind threat appears too limited at this time to include low severe probabilities. There are some indications in various model guidance that convection may develop Wednesday afternoon on the backside of the upper trough across parts of the southern Plains. Typically, this area would be in a subsident regime, with minimal convective potential owing to a lack of low-level moisture/boundary-layer instability. However, in this case, it appears that cold temperatures aloft combined with shallow/residual low-level moisture and daytime heating will provide modest destabilization as the boundary layer becomes well mixed. Weak instability should preclude an organized severe threat, but isolated strong/gusty winds appear possible with any high-based convection that develops. Finally, occasional lightning flashes may occur with low-topped thunderstorms across coastal portions of the Pacific Northwest. This potential should focus mainly in the afternoon and evening time frame, as cold mid-level temperatures and pronounced ascent associated with an approaching upper trough overspread this region. ..Gleason.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough, with split mid-level jets, will move slowly eastward across the central/eastern CONUS on Wednesday. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will persist over the Southeast, while a cold front stalls across the FL Panhandle, GA, and Carolinas. At least low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present along and southeast of the front. But, poor lapse rates and ongoing convection/cloudiness Wednesday morning are expected to hamper robust destabilization. While occasional gusty winds may occur with the strongest thunderstorms that can develop through the afternoon, the overall wind threat appears too limited at this time to include low severe probabilities. There are some indications in various model guidance that convection may develop Wednesday afternoon on the backside of the upper trough across parts of the southern Plains. Typically, this area would be in a subsident regime, with minimal convective potential owing to a lack of low-level moisture/boundary-layer instability. However, in this case, it appears that cold temperatures aloft combined with shallow/residual low-level moisture and daytime heating will provide modest destabilization as the boundary layer becomes well mixed. Weak instability should preclude an organized severe threat, but isolated strong/gusty winds appear possible with any high-based convection that develops. Finally, occasional lightning flashes may occur with low-topped thunderstorms across coastal portions of the Pacific Northwest. This potential should focus mainly in the afternoon and evening time frame, as cold mid-level temperatures and pronounced ascent associated with an approaching upper trough overspread this region. ..Gleason.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough, with split mid-level jets, will move slowly eastward across the central/eastern CONUS on Wednesday. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will persist over the Southeast, while a cold front stalls across the FL Panhandle, GA, and Carolinas. At least low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present along and southeast of the front. But, poor lapse rates and ongoing convection/cloudiness Wednesday morning are expected to hamper robust destabilization. While occasional gusty winds may occur with the strongest thunderstorms that can develop through the afternoon, the overall wind threat appears too limited at this time to include low severe probabilities. There are some indications in various model guidance that convection may develop Wednesday afternoon on the backside of the upper trough across parts of the southern Plains. Typically, this area would be in a subsident regime, with minimal convective potential owing to a lack of low-level moisture/boundary-layer instability. However, in this case, it appears that cold temperatures aloft combined with shallow/residual low-level moisture and daytime heating will provide modest destabilization as the boundary layer becomes well mixed. Weak instability should preclude an organized severe threat, but isolated strong/gusty winds appear possible with any high-based convection that develops. Finally, occasional lightning flashes may occur with low-topped thunderstorms across coastal portions of the Pacific Northwest. This potential should focus mainly in the afternoon and evening time frame, as cold mid-level temperatures and pronounced ascent associated with an approaching upper trough overspread this region. ..Gleason.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough, with split mid-level jets, will move slowly eastward across the central/eastern CONUS on Wednesday. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will persist over the Southeast, while a cold front stalls across the FL Panhandle, GA, and Carolinas. At least low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present along and southeast of the front. But, poor lapse rates and ongoing convection/cloudiness Wednesday morning are expected to hamper robust destabilization. While occasional gusty winds may occur with the strongest thunderstorms that can develop through the afternoon, the overall wind threat appears too limited at this time to include low severe probabilities. There are some indications in various model guidance that convection may develop Wednesday afternoon on the backside of the upper trough across parts of the southern Plains. Typically, this area would be in a subsident regime, with minimal convective potential owing to a lack of low-level moisture/boundary-layer instability. However, in this case, it appears that cold temperatures aloft combined with shallow/residual low-level moisture and daytime heating will provide modest destabilization as the boundary layer becomes well mixed. Weak instability should preclude an organized severe threat, but isolated strong/gusty winds appear possible with any high-based convection that develops. Finally, occasional lightning flashes may occur with low-topped thunderstorms across coastal portions of the Pacific Northwest. This potential should focus mainly in the afternoon and evening time frame, as cold mid-level temperatures and pronounced ascent associated with an approaching upper trough overspread this region. ..Gleason.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough, with split mid-level jets, will move slowly eastward across the central/eastern CONUS on Wednesday. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will persist over the Southeast, while a cold front stalls across the FL Panhandle, GA, and Carolinas. At least low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present along and southeast of the front. But, poor lapse rates and ongoing convection/cloudiness Wednesday morning are expected to hamper robust destabilization. While occasional gusty winds may occur with the strongest thunderstorms that can develop through the afternoon, the overall wind threat appears too limited at this time to include low severe probabilities. There are some indications in various model guidance that convection may develop Wednesday afternoon on the backside of the upper trough across parts of the southern Plains. Typically, this area would be in a subsident regime, with minimal convective potential owing to a lack of low-level moisture/boundary-layer instability. However, in this case, it appears that cold temperatures aloft combined with shallow/residual low-level moisture and daytime heating will provide modest destabilization as the boundary layer becomes well mixed. Weak instability should preclude an organized severe threat, but isolated strong/gusty winds appear possible with any high-based convection that develops. Finally, occasional lightning flashes may occur with low-topped thunderstorms across coastal portions of the Pacific Northwest. This potential should focus mainly in the afternoon and evening time frame, as cold mid-level temperatures and pronounced ascent associated with an approaching upper trough overspread this region. ..Gleason.. 03/25/2024 Read more

MD 0299 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0299 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Areas affected...Central Plains Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 250325Z - 250830Z SUMMARY...Snow rates should increase across portions of the central Plains tonight, possibly approaching 1 inch per hour. DISCUSSION...Latest water-vapor imagery/model data suggest midlevel low is located along the southeast CO/NM border. This feature is ejecting east toward southwest KS where some deepening may occur over the next several hours. This maturation process will result in sharpening corridor of large-scale ascent across the central Plains such that an elongated zone of increasing precipitation should be noted, especially from northwest KS into north-central NE. Latest radar data supports this evolution and profiles should continue to cool along this zone. A developing band of heavy snow is now ongoing from near Burlington CO-LBF-west of ONL. This band may not move appreciably through the early-morning hours and snow rates could easily approach, or perhaps exceed, one inch per hour. Additionally, winds are expected to increase across the high plains and some blowing snow may develop as snow cover increases within the band. ..Darrow.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 39390231 40650147 42549957 42489864 40420039 39180166 39390231 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue to overspread the Plains as a mid-level trough approaches the East Coast tomorrow/Tuesday. As such, overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the Plains. Locally Elevated conditions are possible by afternoon peak heating over the Trans Pecos region of Texas, but overlapping favorable surface winds/RH do not appear widespread enough to warrant fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue to overspread the Plains as a mid-level trough approaches the East Coast tomorrow/Tuesday. As such, overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the Plains. Locally Elevated conditions are possible by afternoon peak heating over the Trans Pecos region of Texas, but overlapping favorable surface winds/RH do not appear widespread enough to warrant fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue to overspread the Plains as a mid-level trough approaches the East Coast tomorrow/Tuesday. As such, overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the Plains. Locally Elevated conditions are possible by afternoon peak heating over the Trans Pecos region of Texas, but overlapping favorable surface winds/RH do not appear widespread enough to warrant fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue to overspread the Plains as a mid-level trough approaches the East Coast tomorrow/Tuesday. As such, overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the Plains. Locally Elevated conditions are possible by afternoon peak heating over the Trans Pecos region of Texas, but overlapping favorable surface winds/RH do not appear widespread enough to warrant fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue to overspread the Plains as a mid-level trough approaches the East Coast tomorrow/Tuesday. As such, overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the Plains. Locally Elevated conditions are possible by afternoon peak heating over the Trans Pecos region of Texas, but overlapping favorable surface winds/RH do not appear widespread enough to warrant fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface low are poised to eject into the MS Valley region today, prompting deep-layer westerly flow across the Southern Plains. Across Far West Texas toward the Rio Grande, downslope flow will contribute to 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. The best chance for Critical conditions will be along the Rio Grande (per latest high-resolution guidance consensus). Fire weather highlights have been maintained where both meteorological conditions and fuel receptiveness best favor rapid wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface low are poised to eject into the MS Valley region today, prompting deep-layer westerly flow across the Southern Plains. Across Far West Texas toward the Rio Grande, downslope flow will contribute to 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. The best chance for Critical conditions will be along the Rio Grande (per latest high-resolution guidance consensus). Fire weather highlights have been maintained where both meteorological conditions and fuel receptiveness best favor rapid wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface low are poised to eject into the MS Valley region today, prompting deep-layer westerly flow across the Southern Plains. Across Far West Texas toward the Rio Grande, downslope flow will contribute to 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. The best chance for Critical conditions will be along the Rio Grande (per latest high-resolution guidance consensus). Fire weather highlights have been maintained where both meteorological conditions and fuel receptiveness best favor rapid wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface low are poised to eject into the MS Valley region today, prompting deep-layer westerly flow across the Southern Plains. Across Far West Texas toward the Rio Grande, downslope flow will contribute to 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. The best chance for Critical conditions will be along the Rio Grande (per latest high-resolution guidance consensus). Fire weather highlights have been maintained where both meteorological conditions and fuel receptiveness best favor rapid wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface low are poised to eject into the MS Valley region today, prompting deep-layer westerly flow across the Southern Plains. Across Far West Texas toward the Rio Grande, downslope flow will contribute to 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. The best chance for Critical conditions will be along the Rio Grande (per latest high-resolution guidance consensus). Fire weather highlights have been maintained where both meteorological conditions and fuel receptiveness best favor rapid wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more