Severe Storms

MD 0296 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0296 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0605 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Areas affected...Northwest Kansas...Southern Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 242305Z - 250130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe threat will likely continue across parts of northwest Kansas and southern Nebraska. Isolated large hail and a few strong wind gusts will be possible. Weather watch issuance remains possible, although the severe threat is only expected to persist for a few more hours. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 987 mb low over far southwest Kansas, with an inverted surface trough extending north-northeastward from northwest Kansas into central Nebraska. Several linear-based storms are ongoing near the trough. In spite of surface dewpoints only in the mid to upper 40s F, the RAP has 500 to 750 J/kg of MLCAPE. The last WSR-88D VWP at Hastings has 30-35 knots of 0-6 km shear, and veering of the winds with height in the lowest 2 km. This should be enough to continue an isolated severe threat. Isolated large hail could occur with strongest of updrafts, along with a few marginally severe wind gusts. Also, a potential for a landspout tornado could continue along and near the eastern edge of the convection. ..Broyles/Guyer.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 39249893 39899845 40489821 40769837 40919888 40919931 40839961 40609986 40409998 39800040 39470051 39210036 39099993 39079945 39249893 Read more

MD 0295 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0295 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0504 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Minnesota and northern/central Wisconsin Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 242204Z - 250300Z SUMMARY...A snowband with eventual heavy rates near 1-1.5 inch/hour is expected to move northward across parts of southeastern Minnesota and northern/central Wisconsin into tonight. The onset of heavier rates is expected in the 23Z-04Z time frame. DISCUSSION...KARX radar data and mesoanalysis as of 22Z indicate a well-defined frontogenetic band moving northward across far northern IA, southern MN, and southwest WI. This band is generally located along the northern periphery of a swath of 40-50-kt 1-km flow per regional VWP data, which also shows a large clockwise-curved low-level hodograph -- indicative of strong low-level warm-air advection. The associated low-level warm nose is yielding melting of hydrometeors beneath the snowband (and a robust bright-banding signature), with light to moderate snowfall rates thus far. With time, the band will continue northward into a region of colder low-level air, and additional low-level cooling should be aided by nocturnal effects and wet-bulbing. As a result, snowfall rates should eventually increase to near 1-1.5 inch/hour as the snowband moves into the increasingly cold air. There is some uncertainty on how widespread these heavier rates will be (especially in the next couple of hours), due to the marginally cold temperatures and much of the frontogenetic ascent remaining below the dendritic growth zone. Nevertheless, the heavy-snow potential should increase in the 23Z-04Z time frame. ..Weinman.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 44059117 43959249 43979386 44239442 44649458 45019452 45409416 45709334 45959186 45928898 45698837 45288825 44718867 44218993 44059117 Read more

WW 0059 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 59 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW CDS TO 30 SE CSM TO 15 SW AVK TO 40 WSW P28 TO 20 SSW GCK. ..WEINMAN..03/24/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 59 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-055-057-069-077-083-095-097-101-119- 135-145-151-155-159-165-171-185-195-250040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS FINNEY FORD GRAY HARPER HODGEMAN KINGMAN KIOWA LANE MEADE NESS PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE RUSH SCOTT STAFFORD TREGO OKC003-011-015-017-031-033-039-043-047-051-053-065-067-073-075- 093-137-141-149-151-153-250040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY GARFIELD Read more

WW 59 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 241950Z - 250200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 59 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West Central Kansas Western Oklahoma Western North Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing along a dryline over the Texas Panhandle. These storms will spread eastward through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 80 miles north northeast of Dodge City KS to 80 miles south southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart Read more

MD 0294 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 59... FOR WESTERN KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0294 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Areas affected...Western Kansas...Western Oklahoma...Northwest Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59... Valid 242137Z - 242330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59 continues. SUMMARY...Large hail, wind damage and an isolated tornado threat are expected over the next few hours, as storms move eastward through WW 59 late this afternoon into early evening. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 987 mb low over far southeast Colorado with a dryline extending southward from near the low along the Texas-Oklahoma state line and into northwest Texas. Strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing just to the east of the dryline form southwest Kansas into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. The airmass east of the dryline is weakly unstable, with MLCAPE estimated by the RAP in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. The WSR-88D VWP at Frederick has 0-6 km shear near 60 knots, with some veering with height in the lowest 2 km. The strong deep-layer shear is evident along most of the dryline due to the exit region of an approaching mid-level jet. As this feature moves across the southern and central Plains early this evening, lift and shear will support supercell development. Although large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats, a brief tornado or two could occur with the stronger rotating storms. ..Broyles.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...GLD...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 35979997 34159994 33320022 32760020 32599949 33179863 34659825 36879843 38059900 38509959 38670007 38650070 38430116 37980124 37080041 35979997 Read more

MD 0293 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0293 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Areas affected...northwestern Kansas into south-central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 242052Z - 242215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms capable of severe hail and gusty winds will increase in coverage this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Day time heating is noted across western Kansas into south-central Nebraska where temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper 60s. Moisture across this region remains limited, with dew points in the 40s. Forcing along the surface cold front to the west amid steep mid-level lapse rates and cooling aloft has allowed thunderstorms to development over the last hour. Further thunderstorm development will be likely through the afternoon and evening, with the potential for instances of severe hail and gusty winds. Given the weak shear and poor thermodynamic profiles, coverage of this threat is uncertain. This area will be monitored for watch potential in the coming hour. ..Thornton/Hart.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 40909946 41019911 40929861 40749828 40499796 40299781 39929790 39509840 39149927 38670065 38690143 38890153 39300092 39750049 40289994 40599969 40909946 Read more

WW 0059 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 59 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..03/24/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 59 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-055-057-069-077-083-095-097-101-119- 135-145-151-155-159-165-171-185-195-242240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS FINNEY FORD GRAY HARPER HODGEMAN KINGMAN KIOWA LANE MEADE NESS PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE RUSH SCOTT STAFFORD TREGO OKC003-007-009-011-015-017-031-033-039-043-045-047-051-053-055- 057-059-065-067-073-075-093-129-137-141-149-151-153-242240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD Read more

WW 0059 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 59 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..03/24/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 59 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-055-057-069-077-083-095-097-101-119- 135-145-151-155-159-165-171-185-195-242240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS FINNEY FORD GRAY HARPER HODGEMAN KINGMAN KIOWA LANE MEADE NESS PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE RUSH SCOTT STAFFORD TREGO OKC003-007-009-011-015-017-031-033-039-043-045-047-051-053-055- 057-059-065-067-073-075-093-129-137-141-149-151-153-242240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more