Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EAST TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA INTO FAR WEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The main changes with the 20z update were to trim parts of the Marginal and Slight risk areas across Texas based on current location of the surface front, and trends in CAMs guidance. Otherwise, the Slight risk from parts of LA eastward remain unchanged. Reference MCD 0205 for short term expectations for severe potential across LA/MS and far southwest AL. Overnight, severe thunderstorm potential will increase across south-central/southern AL. Some consideration to higher tornado probabilities was given to this area based on intensity of vertical shear. While low-level hodographs become large and favorably curved, latest forecast soundings from the HRRR/RAP/NAM continue to indicate at least some weak low-level inhibition, mainly driven by poor lapse rates and some minor warming in the 850-700 mb layer. This will likely limit a greater tornado risk, so will maintain 5 percent tornado probabilities (though conditional potential for a sig tor can not be completely ruled out) at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Eastern TX/OK east across the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough over the central states into the Desert Southwest. This large-scale trough will shift east during the period and become increasingly phased with an amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. A couple of smaller-scale disturbances/speed maxima will move through the base of the southern stream trough. A lead convectively augmented disturbance over northeast TX will move northeast into AR/western TN during the day, while an upstream speed max moves from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, an effective cold front will continue to push east across east TX with a triple point expected to migrate east along a warm front/baroclinically reinforced boundary across central LA today. Near and south of the warm front, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will continue to slowly destabilize during the day with upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints. Sufficiently large and elongated hodographs will favor storm organization with the more persistent/stronger updrafts. A mix of line segments and cells in the warm sector traversing the warm frontal zone will potentially pose a risk for damaging gusts/large hail, and a threat for tornadoes with supercells. Farther east, an initially drier and stable airmass over the AL/FL Panhandle region will slowly destabilize as southerly low-level flow advects richer moisture north. It is uncertain how much strong/severe storm activity will occur during the day owing to the instability concerns, but severe potential may gradually increase into the evening/overnight. As a 500-mb speed max moves from the Rio Grande Valley into MS during the night while intensifying to 90+ kt, there is some indication in models of a rejuvenation of storm activity late tonight into the early part of Saturday morning on the eastern portion of the Slight Risk (i.e. AL vicinity). If some of this activity can become sustained and/or updrafts rooted in the boundary layer, a risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the stronger storms as 700-mb flow increases to 50 to 60-kt. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon north of a surface low/frontal zone. Relatively cold 500-mb temperatures (-18 to -20 deg C) may yield hail potential with the stronger updrafts. Where low-level lapse rates can steepen sufficiently in wake of morning precip, a localized risk for a strong gust may also develop. This activity will likely diminish by early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EAST TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA INTO FAR WEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The main changes with the 20z update were to trim parts of the Marginal and Slight risk areas across Texas based on current location of the surface front, and trends in CAMs guidance. Otherwise, the Slight risk from parts of LA eastward remain unchanged. Reference MCD 0205 for short term expectations for severe potential across LA/MS and far southwest AL. Overnight, severe thunderstorm potential will increase across south-central/southern AL. Some consideration to higher tornado probabilities was given to this area based on intensity of vertical shear. While low-level hodographs become large and favorably curved, latest forecast soundings from the HRRR/RAP/NAM continue to indicate at least some weak low-level inhibition, mainly driven by poor lapse rates and some minor warming in the 850-700 mb layer. This will likely limit a greater tornado risk, so will maintain 5 percent tornado probabilities (though conditional potential for a sig tor can not be completely ruled out) at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Eastern TX/OK east across the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough over the central states into the Desert Southwest. This large-scale trough will shift east during the period and become increasingly phased with an amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. A couple of smaller-scale disturbances/speed maxima will move through the base of the southern stream trough. A lead convectively augmented disturbance over northeast TX will move northeast into AR/western TN during the day, while an upstream speed max moves from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, an effective cold front will continue to push east across east TX with a triple point expected to migrate east along a warm front/baroclinically reinforced boundary across central LA today. Near and south of the warm front, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will continue to slowly destabilize during the day with upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints. Sufficiently large and elongated hodographs will favor storm organization with the more persistent/stronger updrafts. A mix of line segments and cells in the warm sector traversing the warm frontal zone will potentially pose a risk for damaging gusts/large hail, and a threat for tornadoes with supercells. Farther east, an initially drier and stable airmass over the AL/FL Panhandle region will slowly destabilize as southerly low-level flow advects richer moisture north. It is uncertain how much strong/severe storm activity will occur during the day owing to the instability concerns, but severe potential may gradually increase into the evening/overnight. As a 500-mb speed max moves from the Rio Grande Valley into MS during the night while intensifying to 90+ kt, there is some indication in models of a rejuvenation of storm activity late tonight into the early part of Saturday morning on the eastern portion of the Slight Risk (i.e. AL vicinity). If some of this activity can become sustained and/or updrafts rooted in the boundary layer, a risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the stronger storms as 700-mb flow increases to 50 to 60-kt. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon north of a surface low/frontal zone. Relatively cold 500-mb temperatures (-18 to -20 deg C) may yield hail potential with the stronger updrafts. Where low-level lapse rates can steepen sufficiently in wake of morning precip, a localized risk for a strong gust may also develop. This activity will likely diminish by early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EAST TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA INTO FAR WEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The main changes with the 20z update were to trim parts of the Marginal and Slight risk areas across Texas based on current location of the surface front, and trends in CAMs guidance. Otherwise, the Slight risk from parts of LA eastward remain unchanged. Reference MCD 0205 for short term expectations for severe potential across LA/MS and far southwest AL. Overnight, severe thunderstorm potential will increase across south-central/southern AL. Some consideration to higher tornado probabilities was given to this area based on intensity of vertical shear. While low-level hodographs become large and favorably curved, latest forecast soundings from the HRRR/RAP/NAM continue to indicate at least some weak low-level inhibition, mainly driven by poor lapse rates and some minor warming in the 850-700 mb layer. This will likely limit a greater tornado risk, so will maintain 5 percent tornado probabilities (though conditional potential for a sig tor can not be completely ruled out) at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Eastern TX/OK east across the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough over the central states into the Desert Southwest. This large-scale trough will shift east during the period and become increasingly phased with an amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. A couple of smaller-scale disturbances/speed maxima will move through the base of the southern stream trough. A lead convectively augmented disturbance over northeast TX will move northeast into AR/western TN during the day, while an upstream speed max moves from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, an effective cold front will continue to push east across east TX with a triple point expected to migrate east along a warm front/baroclinically reinforced boundary across central LA today. Near and south of the warm front, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will continue to slowly destabilize during the day with upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints. Sufficiently large and elongated hodographs will favor storm organization with the more persistent/stronger updrafts. A mix of line segments and cells in the warm sector traversing the warm frontal zone will potentially pose a risk for damaging gusts/large hail, and a threat for tornadoes with supercells. Farther east, an initially drier and stable airmass over the AL/FL Panhandle region will slowly destabilize as southerly low-level flow advects richer moisture north. It is uncertain how much strong/severe storm activity will occur during the day owing to the instability concerns, but severe potential may gradually increase into the evening/overnight. As a 500-mb speed max moves from the Rio Grande Valley into MS during the night while intensifying to 90+ kt, there is some indication in models of a rejuvenation of storm activity late tonight into the early part of Saturday morning on the eastern portion of the Slight Risk (i.e. AL vicinity). If some of this activity can become sustained and/or updrafts rooted in the boundary layer, a risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the stronger storms as 700-mb flow increases to 50 to 60-kt. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon north of a surface low/frontal zone. Relatively cold 500-mb temperatures (-18 to -20 deg C) may yield hail potential with the stronger updrafts. Where low-level lapse rates can steepen sufficiently in wake of morning precip, a localized risk for a strong gust may also develop. This activity will likely diminish by early evening. Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Mar 8 19:37:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A dry cold frontal passage Friday will bring a much cooler continental air mass as far south as the southern Plains on Saturday, with mild temperatures and afternoon relative humidity largely above 30-35 percent. In addition, surface high pressure will keep winds generally light where fuels are the driest across southern Texas. As such, fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A dry cold frontal passage Friday will bring a much cooler continental air mass as far south as the southern Plains on Saturday, with mild temperatures and afternoon relative humidity largely above 30-35 percent. In addition, surface high pressure will keep winds generally light where fuels are the driest across southern Texas. As such, fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A dry cold frontal passage Friday will bring a much cooler continental air mass as far south as the southern Plains on Saturday, with mild temperatures and afternoon relative humidity largely above 30-35 percent. In addition, surface high pressure will keep winds generally light where fuels are the driest across southern Texas. As such, fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A dry cold frontal passage Friday will bring a much cooler continental air mass as far south as the southern Plains on Saturday, with mild temperatures and afternoon relative humidity largely above 30-35 percent. In addition, surface high pressure will keep winds generally light where fuels are the driest across southern Texas. As such, fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A dry cold frontal passage Friday will bring a much cooler continental air mass as far south as the southern Plains on Saturday, with mild temperatures and afternoon relative humidity largely above 30-35 percent. In addition, surface high pressure will keep winds generally light where fuels are the driest across southern Texas. As such, fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A dry cold frontal passage Friday will bring a much cooler continental air mass as far south as the southern Plains on Saturday, with mild temperatures and afternoon relative humidity largely above 30-35 percent. In addition, surface high pressure will keep winds generally light where fuels are the driest across southern Texas. As such, fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A dry cold frontal passage Friday will bring a much cooler continental air mass as far south as the southern Plains on Saturday, with mild temperatures and afternoon relative humidity largely above 30-35 percent. In addition, surface high pressure will keep winds generally light where fuels are the driest across southern Texas. As such, fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A dry cold frontal passage Friday will bring a much cooler continental air mass as far south as the southern Plains on Saturday, with mild temperatures and afternoon relative humidity largely above 30-35 percent. In addition, surface high pressure will keep winds generally light where fuels are the driest across southern Texas. As such, fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A dry cold frontal passage Friday will bring a much cooler continental air mass as far south as the southern Plains on Saturday, with mild temperatures and afternoon relative humidity largely above 30-35 percent. In addition, surface high pressure will keep winds generally light where fuels are the driest across southern Texas. As such, fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A dry cold frontal passage Friday will bring a much cooler continental air mass as far south as the southern Plains on Saturday, with mild temperatures and afternoon relative humidity largely above 30-35 percent. In addition, surface high pressure will keep winds generally light where fuels are the driest across southern Texas. As such, fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A dry cold frontal passage Friday will bring a much cooler continental air mass as far south as the southern Plains on Saturday, with mild temperatures and afternoon relative humidity largely above 30-35 percent. In addition, surface high pressure will keep winds generally light where fuels are the driest across southern Texas. As such, fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A dry cold frontal passage Friday will bring a much cooler continental air mass as far south as the southern Plains on Saturday, with mild temperatures and afternoon relative humidity largely above 30-35 percent. In addition, surface high pressure will keep winds generally light where fuels are the driest across southern Texas. As such, fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast... Fast southern stream southwesterly deep-layer flow will progress northeast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday, eventually merging with the northern stream upper trough digging across the Great Lakes/Midwest toward the Appalachians. Early in the day, a southwesterly low-level jet around 45-55 kt will be in place across northern FL/GA and the Carolinas, and shift east with time through late afternoon/early evening. At the surface, the main cyclone will be located over the Great Lakes and lift north/northeast across Quebec. However, most guidance depicts a weaker low/frontal wave from northern GA into the central Carolinas during the daytime hours. A cold front will be located across central AL to the mouth of the MS River at the start of the period. At the same time, a CAD wedge is forecast over the western Carolinas into northern GA while a warm front stretches from central GA into southern SC. Strong warm advection will allow for some erosion of the cold air damming into the central Carolinas during the day, with mid 60s F surface dewpoints across spreading into central GA, portions of the SC Mid and Lowlands and eastern NC ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Warm advection atop the area of cold air damming will result in widespread cloudiness, showers and isolated thunderstorms across northern GA into Upstate SC Saturday morning. Convection will remain elevated. However, strong vertical shear and sufficient elevated instability amid modest midlevel lapse rates could still support strong gusts and perhaps small hail. Across the warm sector from northern FL into central/southern GA and parts of SC into far southeast NC, severe potential will be greater. While vertical shear will support supercells, there is some concern regarding storm coverage from norther FL into GA as most forecast guidance depicts a dryslot quickly overspreading the region ahead of the cold front. This is evident in forecast soundings showing drying around 700 mb and increasing inhibition in the 850-700 mb layer. This could limit longevity of stronger updrafts despite MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg, midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km and favorable vertical shear. Nevertheless, any sustained supercells will have an attendant risk of damaging gusts and tornadoes, along with isolated hail. Confidence is higher in isolated to widely scattered supercells across parts of the SC Mid and Lowlands and far southeast NC near and south of the sharp warm front. Midlevel drying is not expected to be as great across this area, with little inhibition apparent in forecast soundings by early afternoon. Given proximity to the surface warm front and the low-level get spreading over this area, low-level SRH will be maximized. Supercells producing damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible through late afternoon. With northward extent across NC, overall thermodynamic environment will become less favorable. However, strong deep-layer flow could still support some organized storm structures and isolated strong gusts into the evening hours. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast... Fast southern stream southwesterly deep-layer flow will progress northeast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday, eventually merging with the northern stream upper trough digging across the Great Lakes/Midwest toward the Appalachians. Early in the day, a southwesterly low-level jet around 45-55 kt will be in place across northern FL/GA and the Carolinas, and shift east with time through late afternoon/early evening. At the surface, the main cyclone will be located over the Great Lakes and lift north/northeast across Quebec. However, most guidance depicts a weaker low/frontal wave from northern GA into the central Carolinas during the daytime hours. A cold front will be located across central AL to the mouth of the MS River at the start of the period. At the same time, a CAD wedge is forecast over the western Carolinas into northern GA while a warm front stretches from central GA into southern SC. Strong warm advection will allow for some erosion of the cold air damming into the central Carolinas during the day, with mid 60s F surface dewpoints across spreading into central GA, portions of the SC Mid and Lowlands and eastern NC ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Warm advection atop the area of cold air damming will result in widespread cloudiness, showers and isolated thunderstorms across northern GA into Upstate SC Saturday morning. Convection will remain elevated. However, strong vertical shear and sufficient elevated instability amid modest midlevel lapse rates could still support strong gusts and perhaps small hail. Across the warm sector from northern FL into central/southern GA and parts of SC into far southeast NC, severe potential will be greater. While vertical shear will support supercells, there is some concern regarding storm coverage from norther FL into GA as most forecast guidance depicts a dryslot quickly overspreading the region ahead of the cold front. This is evident in forecast soundings showing drying around 700 mb and increasing inhibition in the 850-700 mb layer. This could limit longevity of stronger updrafts despite MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg, midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km and favorable vertical shear. Nevertheless, any sustained supercells will have an attendant risk of damaging gusts and tornadoes, along with isolated hail. Confidence is higher in isolated to widely scattered supercells across parts of the SC Mid and Lowlands and far southeast NC near and south of the sharp warm front. Midlevel drying is not expected to be as great across this area, with little inhibition apparent in forecast soundings by early afternoon. Given proximity to the surface warm front and the low-level get spreading over this area, low-level SRH will be maximized. Supercells producing damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible through late afternoon. With northward extent across NC, overall thermodynamic environment will become less favorable. However, strong deep-layer flow could still support some organized storm structures and isolated strong gusts into the evening hours. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast... Fast southern stream southwesterly deep-layer flow will progress northeast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday, eventually merging with the northern stream upper trough digging across the Great Lakes/Midwest toward the Appalachians. Early in the day, a southwesterly low-level jet around 45-55 kt will be in place across northern FL/GA and the Carolinas, and shift east with time through late afternoon/early evening. At the surface, the main cyclone will be located over the Great Lakes and lift north/northeast across Quebec. However, most guidance depicts a weaker low/frontal wave from northern GA into the central Carolinas during the daytime hours. A cold front will be located across central AL to the mouth of the MS River at the start of the period. At the same time, a CAD wedge is forecast over the western Carolinas into northern GA while a warm front stretches from central GA into southern SC. Strong warm advection will allow for some erosion of the cold air damming into the central Carolinas during the day, with mid 60s F surface dewpoints across spreading into central GA, portions of the SC Mid and Lowlands and eastern NC ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Warm advection atop the area of cold air damming will result in widespread cloudiness, showers and isolated thunderstorms across northern GA into Upstate SC Saturday morning. Convection will remain elevated. However, strong vertical shear and sufficient elevated instability amid modest midlevel lapse rates could still support strong gusts and perhaps small hail. Across the warm sector from northern FL into central/southern GA and parts of SC into far southeast NC, severe potential will be greater. While vertical shear will support supercells, there is some concern regarding storm coverage from norther FL into GA as most forecast guidance depicts a dryslot quickly overspreading the region ahead of the cold front. This is evident in forecast soundings showing drying around 700 mb and increasing inhibition in the 850-700 mb layer. This could limit longevity of stronger updrafts despite MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg, midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km and favorable vertical shear. Nevertheless, any sustained supercells will have an attendant risk of damaging gusts and tornadoes, along with isolated hail. Confidence is higher in isolated to widely scattered supercells across parts of the SC Mid and Lowlands and far southeast NC near and south of the sharp warm front. Midlevel drying is not expected to be as great across this area, with little inhibition apparent in forecast soundings by early afternoon. Given proximity to the surface warm front and the low-level get spreading over this area, low-level SRH will be maximized. Supercells producing damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible through late afternoon. With northward extent across NC, overall thermodynamic environment will become less favorable. However, strong deep-layer flow could still support some organized storm structures and isolated strong gusts into the evening hours. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast... Fast southern stream southwesterly deep-layer flow will progress northeast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday, eventually merging with the northern stream upper trough digging across the Great Lakes/Midwest toward the Appalachians. Early in the day, a southwesterly low-level jet around 45-55 kt will be in place across northern FL/GA and the Carolinas, and shift east with time through late afternoon/early evening. At the surface, the main cyclone will be located over the Great Lakes and lift north/northeast across Quebec. However, most guidance depicts a weaker low/frontal wave from northern GA into the central Carolinas during the daytime hours. A cold front will be located across central AL to the mouth of the MS River at the start of the period. At the same time, a CAD wedge is forecast over the western Carolinas into northern GA while a warm front stretches from central GA into southern SC. Strong warm advection will allow for some erosion of the cold air damming into the central Carolinas during the day, with mid 60s F surface dewpoints across spreading into central GA, portions of the SC Mid and Lowlands and eastern NC ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Warm advection atop the area of cold air damming will result in widespread cloudiness, showers and isolated thunderstorms across northern GA into Upstate SC Saturday morning. Convection will remain elevated. However, strong vertical shear and sufficient elevated instability amid modest midlevel lapse rates could still support strong gusts and perhaps small hail. Across the warm sector from northern FL into central/southern GA and parts of SC into far southeast NC, severe potential will be greater. While vertical shear will support supercells, there is some concern regarding storm coverage from norther FL into GA as most forecast guidance depicts a dryslot quickly overspreading the region ahead of the cold front. This is evident in forecast soundings showing drying around 700 mb and increasing inhibition in the 850-700 mb layer. This could limit longevity of stronger updrafts despite MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg, midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km and favorable vertical shear. Nevertheless, any sustained supercells will have an attendant risk of damaging gusts and tornadoes, along with isolated hail. Confidence is higher in isolated to widely scattered supercells across parts of the SC Mid and Lowlands and far southeast NC near and south of the sharp warm front. Midlevel drying is not expected to be as great across this area, with little inhibition apparent in forecast soundings by early afternoon. Given proximity to the surface warm front and the low-level get spreading over this area, low-level SRH will be maximized. Supercells producing damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible through late afternoon. With northward extent across NC, overall thermodynamic environment will become less favorable. However, strong deep-layer flow could still support some organized storm structures and isolated strong gusts into the evening hours. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 Read more