Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may continue to impact portions of the southern Great Plains tonight, posing primarily a risk for severe hail and locally strong gusts. ...01Z Update... Cold air continues to nose southward through the high plains, and may advance through much of the Texas South Plains by late tonight, while advancing more slowly southeastward across the Upper Midwest, and middle into lower Missouri Valley. A weak wave has evolved along the front and is forecast to migrate from southeastern Kansas into the lower Missouri Valley overnight, but with little further development. Otherwise, generally broad, weak surface troughing likely will slowly shift eastward across the southern Great Plains toward the lower Mississippi Valley. Approaching large-scale mid-level troughing remains largely west of the southern Rockies, with the lead of two primary embedded short wave perturbations still progressing across Arizona and not likely to impact the southern Great Plains until late tonight. However, the leading edge of relative cool air in mid/upper levels has contributed to a narrow corridor of modest destabilization near/east of the Texas South Plains into southwestern through north central Oklahoma. This is near the northwestern periphery of broad mid/upper subtropical ridging still overspreading the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley. Residual warm layers aloft probably have continued to impact severe weather potential with ongoing convective development across much of central/north central Texas. This does not appear likely to change soon, but with increasing forcing associated with the approaching short wave impulse, various model output suggests increasing risk for strong/severe thunderstorm development could commence near/north of the Texas Edwards Plateau vicinity toward 07-08z, before spreading toward the Interstate 35 corridor through daybreak. Farther north, a couple of small supercell structures have developed near the frontal wave, while stronger convection has otherwise evolved into a narrow organizing line within the instability axis across southwestern into north central Oklahoma. It appears that this activity could remain fairly vigorous another couple of hours, posing a risk for mainly severe hail and locally strong surface gusts, before the instability wanes with continued boundary-layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may continue to impact portions of the southern Great Plains tonight, posing primarily a risk for severe hail and locally strong gusts. ...01Z Update... Cold air continues to nose southward through the high plains, and may advance through much of the Texas South Plains by late tonight, while advancing more slowly southeastward across the Upper Midwest, and middle into lower Missouri Valley. A weak wave has evolved along the front and is forecast to migrate from southeastern Kansas into the lower Missouri Valley overnight, but with little further development. Otherwise, generally broad, weak surface troughing likely will slowly shift eastward across the southern Great Plains toward the lower Mississippi Valley. Approaching large-scale mid-level troughing remains largely west of the southern Rockies, with the lead of two primary embedded short wave perturbations still progressing across Arizona and not likely to impact the southern Great Plains until late tonight. However, the leading edge of relative cool air in mid/upper levels has contributed to a narrow corridor of modest destabilization near/east of the Texas South Plains into southwestern through north central Oklahoma. This is near the northwestern periphery of broad mid/upper subtropical ridging still overspreading the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley. Residual warm layers aloft probably have continued to impact severe weather potential with ongoing convective development across much of central/north central Texas. This does not appear likely to change soon, but with increasing forcing associated with the approaching short wave impulse, various model output suggests increasing risk for strong/severe thunderstorm development could commence near/north of the Texas Edwards Plateau vicinity toward 07-08z, before spreading toward the Interstate 35 corridor through daybreak. Farther north, a couple of small supercell structures have developed near the frontal wave, while stronger convection has otherwise evolved into a narrow organizing line within the instability axis across southwestern into north central Oklahoma. It appears that this activity could remain fairly vigorous another couple of hours, posing a risk for mainly severe hail and locally strong surface gusts, before the instability wanes with continued boundary-layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may continue to impact portions of the southern Great Plains tonight, posing primarily a risk for severe hail and locally strong gusts. ...01Z Update... Cold air continues to nose southward through the high plains, and may advance through much of the Texas South Plains by late tonight, while advancing more slowly southeastward across the Upper Midwest, and middle into lower Missouri Valley. A weak wave has evolved along the front and is forecast to migrate from southeastern Kansas into the lower Missouri Valley overnight, but with little further development. Otherwise, generally broad, weak surface troughing likely will slowly shift eastward across the southern Great Plains toward the lower Mississippi Valley. Approaching large-scale mid-level troughing remains largely west of the southern Rockies, with the lead of two primary embedded short wave perturbations still progressing across Arizona and not likely to impact the southern Great Plains until late tonight. However, the leading edge of relative cool air in mid/upper levels has contributed to a narrow corridor of modest destabilization near/east of the Texas South Plains into southwestern through north central Oklahoma. This is near the northwestern periphery of broad mid/upper subtropical ridging still overspreading the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley. Residual warm layers aloft probably have continued to impact severe weather potential with ongoing convective development across much of central/north central Texas. This does not appear likely to change soon, but with increasing forcing associated with the approaching short wave impulse, various model output suggests increasing risk for strong/severe thunderstorm development could commence near/north of the Texas Edwards Plateau vicinity toward 07-08z, before spreading toward the Interstate 35 corridor through daybreak. Farther north, a couple of small supercell structures have developed near the frontal wave, while stronger convection has otherwise evolved into a narrow organizing line within the instability axis across southwestern into north central Oklahoma. It appears that this activity could remain fairly vigorous another couple of hours, posing a risk for mainly severe hail and locally strong surface gusts, before the instability wanes with continued boundary-layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may continue to impact portions of the southern Great Plains tonight, posing primarily a risk for severe hail and locally strong gusts. ...01Z Update... Cold air continues to nose southward through the high plains, and may advance through much of the Texas South Plains by late tonight, while advancing more slowly southeastward across the Upper Midwest, and middle into lower Missouri Valley. A weak wave has evolved along the front and is forecast to migrate from southeastern Kansas into the lower Missouri Valley overnight, but with little further development. Otherwise, generally broad, weak surface troughing likely will slowly shift eastward across the southern Great Plains toward the lower Mississippi Valley. Approaching large-scale mid-level troughing remains largely west of the southern Rockies, with the lead of two primary embedded short wave perturbations still progressing across Arizona and not likely to impact the southern Great Plains until late tonight. However, the leading edge of relative cool air in mid/upper levels has contributed to a narrow corridor of modest destabilization near/east of the Texas South Plains into southwestern through north central Oklahoma. This is near the northwestern periphery of broad mid/upper subtropical ridging still overspreading the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley. Residual warm layers aloft probably have continued to impact severe weather potential with ongoing convective development across much of central/north central Texas. This does not appear likely to change soon, but with increasing forcing associated with the approaching short wave impulse, various model output suggests increasing risk for strong/severe thunderstorm development could commence near/north of the Texas Edwards Plateau vicinity toward 07-08z, before spreading toward the Interstate 35 corridor through daybreak. Farther north, a couple of small supercell structures have developed near the frontal wave, while stronger convection has otherwise evolved into a narrow organizing line within the instability axis across southwestern into north central Oklahoma. It appears that this activity could remain fairly vigorous another couple of hours, posing a risk for mainly severe hail and locally strong surface gusts, before the instability wanes with continued boundary-layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may continue to impact portions of the southern Great Plains tonight, posing primarily a risk for severe hail and locally strong gusts. ...01Z Update... Cold air continues to nose southward through the high plains, and may advance through much of the Texas South Plains by late tonight, while advancing more slowly southeastward across the Upper Midwest, and middle into lower Missouri Valley. A weak wave has evolved along the front and is forecast to migrate from southeastern Kansas into the lower Missouri Valley overnight, but with little further development. Otherwise, generally broad, weak surface troughing likely will slowly shift eastward across the southern Great Plains toward the lower Mississippi Valley. Approaching large-scale mid-level troughing remains largely west of the southern Rockies, with the lead of two primary embedded short wave perturbations still progressing across Arizona and not likely to impact the southern Great Plains until late tonight. However, the leading edge of relative cool air in mid/upper levels has contributed to a narrow corridor of modest destabilization near/east of the Texas South Plains into southwestern through north central Oklahoma. This is near the northwestern periphery of broad mid/upper subtropical ridging still overspreading the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley. Residual warm layers aloft probably have continued to impact severe weather potential with ongoing convective development across much of central/north central Texas. This does not appear likely to change soon, but with increasing forcing associated with the approaching short wave impulse, various model output suggests increasing risk for strong/severe thunderstorm development could commence near/north of the Texas Edwards Plateau vicinity toward 07-08z, before spreading toward the Interstate 35 corridor through daybreak. Farther north, a couple of small supercell structures have developed near the frontal wave, while stronger convection has otherwise evolved into a narrow organizing line within the instability axis across southwestern into north central Oklahoma. It appears that this activity could remain fairly vigorous another couple of hours, posing a risk for mainly severe hail and locally strong surface gusts, before the instability wanes with continued boundary-layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may continue to impact portions of the southern Great Plains tonight, posing primarily a risk for severe hail and locally strong gusts. ...01Z Update... Cold air continues to nose southward through the high plains, and may advance through much of the Texas South Plains by late tonight, while advancing more slowly southeastward across the Upper Midwest, and middle into lower Missouri Valley. A weak wave has evolved along the front and is forecast to migrate from southeastern Kansas into the lower Missouri Valley overnight, but with little further development. Otherwise, generally broad, weak surface troughing likely will slowly shift eastward across the southern Great Plains toward the lower Mississippi Valley. Approaching large-scale mid-level troughing remains largely west of the southern Rockies, with the lead of two primary embedded short wave perturbations still progressing across Arizona and not likely to impact the southern Great Plains until late tonight. However, the leading edge of relative cool air in mid/upper levels has contributed to a narrow corridor of modest destabilization near/east of the Texas South Plains into southwestern through north central Oklahoma. This is near the northwestern periphery of broad mid/upper subtropical ridging still overspreading the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley. Residual warm layers aloft probably have continued to impact severe weather potential with ongoing convective development across much of central/north central Texas. This does not appear likely to change soon, but with increasing forcing associated with the approaching short wave impulse, various model output suggests increasing risk for strong/severe thunderstorm development could commence near/north of the Texas Edwards Plateau vicinity toward 07-08z, before spreading toward the Interstate 35 corridor through daybreak. Farther north, a couple of small supercell structures have developed near the frontal wave, while stronger convection has otherwise evolved into a narrow organizing line within the instability axis across southwestern into north central Oklahoma. It appears that this activity could remain fairly vigorous another couple of hours, posing a risk for mainly severe hail and locally strong surface gusts, before the instability wanes with continued boundary-layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may continue to impact portions of the southern Great Plains tonight, posing primarily a risk for severe hail and locally strong gusts. ...01Z Update... Cold air continues to nose southward through the high plains, and may advance through much of the Texas South Plains by late tonight, while advancing more slowly southeastward across the Upper Midwest, and middle into lower Missouri Valley. A weak wave has evolved along the front and is forecast to migrate from southeastern Kansas into the lower Missouri Valley overnight, but with little further development. Otherwise, generally broad, weak surface troughing likely will slowly shift eastward across the southern Great Plains toward the lower Mississippi Valley. Approaching large-scale mid-level troughing remains largely west of the southern Rockies, with the lead of two primary embedded short wave perturbations still progressing across Arizona and not likely to impact the southern Great Plains until late tonight. However, the leading edge of relative cool air in mid/upper levels has contributed to a narrow corridor of modest destabilization near/east of the Texas South Plains into southwestern through north central Oklahoma. This is near the northwestern periphery of broad mid/upper subtropical ridging still overspreading the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley. Residual warm layers aloft probably have continued to impact severe weather potential with ongoing convective development across much of central/north central Texas. This does not appear likely to change soon, but with increasing forcing associated with the approaching short wave impulse, various model output suggests increasing risk for strong/severe thunderstorm development could commence near/north of the Texas Edwards Plateau vicinity toward 07-08z, before spreading toward the Interstate 35 corridor through daybreak. Farther north, a couple of small supercell structures have developed near the frontal wave, while stronger convection has otherwise evolved into a narrow organizing line within the instability axis across southwestern into north central Oklahoma. It appears that this activity could remain fairly vigorous another couple of hours, posing a risk for mainly severe hail and locally strong surface gusts, before the instability wanes with continued boundary-layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may continue to impact portions of the southern Great Plains tonight, posing primarily a risk for severe hail and locally strong gusts. ...01Z Update... Cold air continues to nose southward through the high plains, and may advance through much of the Texas South Plains by late tonight, while advancing more slowly southeastward across the Upper Midwest, and middle into lower Missouri Valley. A weak wave has evolved along the front and is forecast to migrate from southeastern Kansas into the lower Missouri Valley overnight, but with little further development. Otherwise, generally broad, weak surface troughing likely will slowly shift eastward across the southern Great Plains toward the lower Mississippi Valley. Approaching large-scale mid-level troughing remains largely west of the southern Rockies, with the lead of two primary embedded short wave perturbations still progressing across Arizona and not likely to impact the southern Great Plains until late tonight. However, the leading edge of relative cool air in mid/upper levels has contributed to a narrow corridor of modest destabilization near/east of the Texas South Plains into southwestern through north central Oklahoma. This is near the northwestern periphery of broad mid/upper subtropical ridging still overspreading the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley. Residual warm layers aloft probably have continued to impact severe weather potential with ongoing convective development across much of central/north central Texas. This does not appear likely to change soon, but with increasing forcing associated with the approaching short wave impulse, various model output suggests increasing risk for strong/severe thunderstorm development could commence near/north of the Texas Edwards Plateau vicinity toward 07-08z, before spreading toward the Interstate 35 corridor through daybreak. Farther north, a couple of small supercell structures have developed near the frontal wave, while stronger convection has otherwise evolved into a narrow organizing line within the instability axis across southwestern into north central Oklahoma. It appears that this activity could remain fairly vigorous another couple of hours, posing a risk for mainly severe hail and locally strong surface gusts, before the instability wanes with continued boundary-layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 03/08/2024 Read more

WW 0031 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 31 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N CDS TO 30 ENE CSM TO 10 WSW PNC TO 25 N PNC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0200 ..THORNTON..03/08/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...FWD...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 31 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC015-017-027-031-033-049-051-055-057-065-067-073-075-083-087- 103-109-137-141-149-080140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON GARVIN GRADY GREER HARMON JACKSON JEFFERSON KINGFISHER KIOWA LOGAN MCCLAIN NOBLE OKLAHOMA STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA TXC009-023-049-059-077-081-083-095-101-133-151-155-173-197-207- 235-253-269-275-307-335-353-383-399-415-417-429-431-433-441-447- 451-485-487-503-080140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR BROWN Read more

WW 0030 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 30 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE AVK TO 30 NNW PNC TO 10 SW EMP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0201 ..THORNTON..03/08/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 30 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-019-035-049-073-099-125-133-205-207-080140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK GREENWOOD LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON OKC003-035-053-071-105-113-147-080140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA CRAIG GRANT KAY NOWATA OSAGE WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Mar 7 23:39:02 UTC 2024.

WW 0031 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 31 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE CDS TO 15 W CSM TO 25 SW AVK TO 30 WSW P28. ..THORNTON..03/07/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...FWD...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 31 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC011-015-017-027-031-033-039-043-047-049-051-055-057-065-067- 073-075-083-087-093-103-109-137-141-149-151-080040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY GREER HARMON JACKSON JEFFERSON KINGFISHER KIOWA LOGAN MCCLAIN MAJOR NOBLE OKLAHOMA STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA WOODS TXC009-023-049-059-077-081-083-095-101-133-151-155-173-197-207- 235-253-269-275-307-335-353-383-399-415-417-429-431-433-441-447- 451-485-487-503-080040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR BROWN Read more

WW 31 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 072100Z - 080400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 31 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Oklahoma West-central and western North Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 1000 PM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are slowly intensifying in vicinity of a dryline over western Oklahoma and west Texas. This activity will track eastward through the afternoon and early evening, posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles south of San Angelo TX to 40 miles east northeast of Alva OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 30... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0030 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 30 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..03/07/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 30 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-015-019-035-049-073-077-099-125-133-173-191-205-207- 080040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK GREENWOOD HARPER LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO SEDGWICK SUMNER WILSON WOODSON OKC003-035-053-071-105-113-147-080040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA CRAIG GRANT KAY NOWATA OSAGE WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 30 SEVERE TSTM KS OK 072025Z - 080300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 30 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 225 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Kansas Northern Oklahoma * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 225 PM until 900 PM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify this afternoon along a warm front near the Kansas/Oklahoma border. Supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado or two are the main concern. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west southwest of Wichita KS to 30 miles southeast of Chanute KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0031 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 31 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE CDS TO 15 W CSM TO 25 SW AVK TO 30 WSW P28. ..THORNTON..03/07/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...FWD...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 31 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC011-015-017-027-031-033-039-043-047-049-051-055-057-065-067- 073-075-083-087-093-103-109-137-141-149-151-072340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY GREER HARMON JACKSON JEFFERSON KINGFISHER KIOWA LOGAN MCCLAIN MAJOR NOBLE OKLAHOMA STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA WOODS TXC009-023-049-059-077-081-083-095-101-133-151-155-173-197-207- 235-253-269-275-307-335-353-383-399-415-417-429-431-433-441-447- 451-485-487-503-072340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR BROWN Read more

WW 0030 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 30 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..03/07/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 30 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-015-019-035-049-073-077-099-125-133-173-191-205-207- 072340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK GREENWOOD HARPER LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO SEDGWICK SUMNER WILSON WOODSON OKC003-035-053-071-105-113-147-072340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA CRAIG GRANT KAY NOWATA OSAGE WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

MD 0199 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE TX BIG COUNTRY/CONCHO VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0199 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Areas affected...Parts of the TX Big Country/Concho Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 072006Z - 072200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to increase later this afternoon. A couple of supercells will be possible, with a threat of large hail, isolated severe gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating of an increasingly moist airmass is ongoing this afternoon, mainly to the south and west of a band of elevated convection extending from west-central to north-central TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the increasing moisture are supporting MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg, though poor upper-level lapse rates within a cirrus plume are likely limiting the depth of stronger buoyancy. Strong mid/upper-level flow is supporting effective shear of 60+ kt across the region, more than sufficient for organized storms. The details of storm initiation and coverage remain somewhat uncertain, though continued heating and diminishing MLCINH will likely support isolated to widely scattered storm development along a diffuse dryline later this afternoon. Some increasing cumulus has also been noted near San Angelo, in the vicinity of an apparent outflow boundary, where surface winds are backed to more of an easterly direction. This boundary could serve as a focus for storm initiation as well, or else provide a favored corridor for storms that move in from the west late this afternoon or early this evening. With favorable shear in place, at least a couple supercells could develop by late afternoon, posing a threat of hail (potentially in the 1.5 to 2 inch diameter range) and localized severe gusts. Some tornado threat could also evolve, especially where surface winds are backed near the remnant outflow boundary. Watch issuance is possible by 4 PM CST if convective initiation appears imminent. ..Dean/Hart.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 30830180 31650207 32160196 32640146 33250079 33279938 33209863 32619856 31709881 31159915 30829937 30639963 30510042 30520102 30720161 30830180 Read more

MD 0197 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0197 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Areas affected...North central Oklahoma to southeast Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 071927Z - 072200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected across north-central Oklahoma and southeast Kansas in the coming hours. These storms will likely pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. Trends are being monitored for a possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Over the past several hours, gradually clearing skies across north-central OK and south-central KS have allowed temperatures to warm into the mid 60s to low 70s. Although diurnal mixing has scoured moisture to the south of the synoptic frontal zone (dewpoints have fallen into the mid to upper 40s), dewpoints remain in the mid 50s along the surface warm front and to the north of a differential heating/outflow boundary draped across northern OK. With steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading the region, MLCAPE is gradually increasing with further improvement possible amid a subtle influx of low-level moisture from northeast OK within the southeasterly flow regime. Thunderstorm initiation is probable in the coming hours in the vicinity of the surface low and/or along the differential heating boundary as ascent associated with a subtle mid-level perturbation overspreads the region (denoted by a cirrus plume currently over the TX Panhandle). Latest HRRR/WOFS guidance suggests this should occur during the 21-23 UTC time frame. Wind profiles will be favorable for supercells, and enhanced low-level helicity between the differential heating boundary and warm front may support a locally higher tornado threat across northern OK/south-central KS. Further downstream into southeast KS, the gradual erosion of the stratiform rain/cloud field casts uncertainty on destabilization, but a few robust storms will likely persist and pose a hail/wind threat this evening. Trends will continue to be monitored for watch issuance. ..Moore/Hart.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 36499692 36689742 36789777 36839802 37119812 37539782 38059705 38309623 38469552 38439498 38099470 37759464 37309480 36949538 36669625 36499692 Read more

WW 0030 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 30 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..03/07/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 30 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-015-019-035-049-073-077-099-125-133-173-191-205-207- 072240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK GREENWOOD HARPER LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO SEDGWICK SUMNER WILSON WOODSON OKC003-035-053-071-105-113-147-072240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA CRAIG GRANT KAY NOWATA OSAGE WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more